U.S. Department of Justice & Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms, U.S. Department of the Treasury, Gun Shows: Brady Checks and Crime Gun Traces ...
Supplementary appendix This appendix formed part of the original submission and has been peer reviewed. We post it as supplied by the authors. Supplement to: Kalesan B, Mobily ME, Keiser O, Fagan JA, Galea S. Firearm legislation and firearm mortality in the USA: a cross-sectional, state-level study. Lancet 2016; published online March 10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(15)01026-0.
SUPPLEMENTARY APPENDIX
Table of Contents Supplementary Appendix 1: Description of firearm legislations during year 2009 used in this study .................................................................................................................................. 3 Firearm Dealer Regulations ........................................................................................................................ 3 Gun Dealer License ......................................................................................................................................................... 3 Record Keeping and Retention ................................................................................................................................. 3 Report Records to State ................................................................................................................................................ 4 Mandatory Theft Reporting ........................................................................................................................................ 4 Gun Store Security Precaution .................................................................................................................................. 4 Police Inspection ............................................................................................................................................................. 4 Owner Purchase Regulations ...................................................................................................................... 5 Bulk Purchases Limitation .......................................................................................................................................... 5 Ballistic Fingerprinting or Microstamping of Semi-Automatic Handguns (Firearm identification) ................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Owner Theft Reporting ................................................................................................................................................. 6 Background Checks or Additions .............................................................................................................. 6 Universal Background Check ..................................................................................................................................... 6 Permit Law Involvement ............................................................................................................................................. 6 Fingerprinting .................................................................................................................................................................. 7 Safety Training ................................................................................................................................................................. 7 Extension of Background-Check Limit ................................................................................................................... 7 Closure of Gun Show Loophole ................................................................................................................................. 7 Ammunition Purchaser Records .............................................................................................................................. 8 Ammunition Brady Check ........................................................................................................................................... 8 Child access prevention laws (CAP) .......................................................................................................... 9 Locks (Integrated, External, Standards) ............................................................................................................... 9 Child Handgun Restrictions ........................................................................................................................................ 9 Child Access ....................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Juvenile Handgun Purchases ................................................................................................................................... 10 Assault Weapons Restrictions .................................................................................................................. 10 Assault Weapons Ban ................................................................................................................................................. 10 Large Magazine Ban .................................................................................................................................................... 11 Public Place Restrictions ............................................................................................................................ 11 Concealed Carry Weapons ....................................................................................................................................... 11 Stand Your Ground ...................................................................................................................................................... 11 Firearm legislature categories considered in the analysis: ........................................................... 12 Brady Center Firearm Legislation Score: .............................................................................................. 12
Supplementary Appendix 2: Description of covariates used in this study .................... 13 Firearm mortality rate in 2009 ................................................................................................................ 13
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Firearm export rate in 2009 ..................................................................................................................... 13 Firearm ownership rate in 2013 ............................................................................................................. 13 Unemployment rates in 2010 ................................................................................................................... 13 Non-firearm homicide rates ...................................................................................................................... 14
Supplementary Appendix 3: Explanation of statistical analysis performed to predict discrete change .................................................................................................................................. 15 Supplementary Figure 1: Conceptual diagram ........................................................................ 16 Supplementary Figure 2: Predicted probability of firearm mortality in each state .. 17 Supplementary Table 1: Model fit statistics ............................................................................. 18 Supplementary Table 2: Predicted relative risk of fatal firearm injury associated with protective firearm laws in each US state in 2010 and in the presence of each protective law separately ............................................................................................................... 19 Supplementary Table 3: Legislative, demographic and social characteristics and the risk of all, homicide and suicide fatal firearm injuries ......................................................... 32 Supplementary Table 4: Legislative, demographic and social characteristics and the change in fatal firearm injury from 2008 to 2010 .................................................................. 33
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Supplementary Appendix 1: Description of firearm legislations during year 2009 used in this study
Firearm Dealer Regulations Gun Dealer License Federal law dictates that persons who engage in the business of selling firearms are required to be licensed.1 However, private sellers who are not “engaged in the business” are exempt from federal licensing requirements. Private sales are estimated to account for 40% of firearm transactions per year.2 Additionally, it may be more difficult to prosecute illegal firearm traffickers who are not “engaged in the business”.3 Certain states attempt to mitigate this exemption by requiring that private sellers obtain some form of state-issued licensing. 1. 18 U.S.C. § 922(a)(1)(A). 2. Philip J. Cook & Jens Ludwig, Guns in America: National Survey on Private Ownership and Use of Firearms, U.S. Department of Justice, National Institute of Justice Research in Brief 6-7 (May 1997), at https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles/165476.pdf. 3. U.S. Department of Justice & Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms, U.S. Department of the Treasury, Gun Shows: Brady Checks and Crime Gun Traces 13-14 (Jan. 1999), at http://www.atf.gov/files/publications/download/treas/treas-gun-shows-brady-checks-and-crimegun-traces.pdf. Record Keeping and Retention Records of gun sales, including firearm(s) purchased and purchaser information, are required to be kept by licensed dealers indefinitely, according to federal law.1 However, this does not apply to private dealers and the federal government is prohibited from developing a central repository with the information. This later caveat has been considered to slow the linking of guns found at a crime scene with their purchaser.2-4 Some states require all dealers to record and retain records of firearm sales. 1. 18 U.S.C. § 923(g)(1)(A) 2. U.S. Gov’t Accountability Office, Firearms Trafficking: U.S. Efforts to Combat Arms Trafficking to Mexico Face Planning and Coordination Challenges 25 (June 2009), at http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-09-709. 3. Sari Horwitz and James V. Grimaldi, ATF’s Oversight Limited in Face of Gun Lobby, Wash. Post, Oct. 26, 2010, at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2010/10/25/AR2010102505823.html?sub=AR. 4. Center for American Progress, Blindfolded, and with One Hand Tied Behind the Back: How the Gun Lobby Has Debilitated Federal Action on Guns and What President Obama Can Do About It (March 2013), at http://www.americanprogress.org/wpcontent/uploads/2013/03/GunRidersBrief-7.pdf.
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Report Records to State Federal law only requires that licensed firearm dealers report multiple sales of handguns (≥ two in a five day period to a single purchaser) to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms.1 In California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas this also applies to multiple sales of semiautomatic rifles.2 Certain states require reporting of all firearm sales to state authorities. 1. 18 U.S.C. § 923(g)(3)(A) 2. 18 U.S.C. 923(g)(5)(A) Mandatory Theft Reporting Federal law requires that all licensed dealers report the theft or loss of a firearm within 48 hours of its discovery to the U.S. Attorney General or local law enforcement.1 Three states have specific state requirements for reporting theft or loss of firearms. 1. 18 U.S.C. § 923(g)(6) The law center website describes about the federal law and the three states who received points in this category and the federal law: “Federal law does, however, require licensed firearms dealers to report the loss or theft of any firearm from the dealer’s inventory to the U.S. Attorney General or local law enforcement within 48 hours of discovering the loss or theft.” “Three states specifically require dealers to report to state and/or local authorities the theft or loss of any firearm, while other states apply this requirement to firearm owners generally, as described in our summary on Reporting Lost & Stolen Firearms. California requires dealers to report theft or loss of any firearm to the local law enforcement agency where the dealer is located within 48 hours. Massachusetts requires dealers to report any theft or loss to the local licensing authority and to the state Criminal History Systems Board. New Jersey requires dealers to report the loss or theft of firearms or ammunition to the local police force or the state police within 36 hours.” Gun Store Security Precaution There is no federal regulation concerning gun store security measures. In order to minimize the risk of theft, some states require licensed firearms dealers to utilize certain store security measures. Examples of these measures include installation of electronic security systems, burglar alarms connected to local law enforcement, restrictions on displays and locked storage requirements.1 Specific requirements vary between states. 1. Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence. http://smartgunlaws.org/dealer-regulations-policysummary/. Retrieved 5/2/2015. Police Inspection Federal law requires that licensed dealers submit to a maximum of one inspection each year by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms to ensure compliance with federal law.1 However, there is no federal law requiring dealers to submit to inspection by local authorities. A 2010
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report found that less 10% of licensed dealers were inspected by ATF in 2009.2 Furthermore, only 62% of licensed dealers inspected by the ATF were found to be in compliance with federal law in 2011.3 Certain states allow or require inspection of firearm dealers to be conducted by local law enforcement.4 1. 18 U.S.C. § 923(g)(1)(B). 2. Sari Horwitz and James V. Grimaldi, ATF’s Oversight Limited in Face of Gun Lobby, Wash. Post, Oct. 26, 2010, at http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2010/10/25/AR2010102505823.html?sub=AR. 3. Office of the Inspector General, Evaluation and Inspections Division, U.S. Department of Justice, Review of ATF’s Federal Firearms Licensee Inspection Program 1 (Apr. 2013), at http://www.justice.gov/oig/reports/2013/e1305.pdf. 4. Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence. http://smartgunlaws.org/dealer-regulations-policysummary/. Retrieved 5/2/2015.
Owner Purchase Regulations Bulk Purchases Limitation While federal law requires licensed dealers to report multiple sales of handguns (≥ two in a five day period to a single purchaser) to the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms, it does not limit the number of firearms that may be purchased.1 Studies have found that roughly 20% of handguns recovered at crime scenes are purchased as part of a multiple sale and that handguns purchased in this manner are up to 64% more likely to be used in crime compared to those bought in a single sale.2,3 In 2009, some states limited bulk purchases of handguns by restricting their sale to one purchaser to one per month with or without certain exceptions (e.g., presentation of a police report claiming loss or theft of the purchased handgun).4 1. 18 U.S.C. § 923(g)(3)(A) 2. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms, U.S. Department of the Treasury, Youth Crime Gun Interdiction Initiative, Crime Gun Trace Reports (2000) National Report 50 (July 2002). 3. Christopher S. Koper, Crime Gun Risk Factors: Buyer, Seller, Firearm, and Transaction Characteristics Associated with Gun Trafficking and Criminal Gun Use, Report to the National Institute of Justice 6, 83 (2007), at http://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/221074.pdf. 4. Md. Code Ann., Pub. Safety § 5-128(a)(8). Ballistic Fingerprinting or Microstamping of Semi-Automatic Handguns (Firearm identification) Cartridge cases are uniquely marked after a gun is fired.1 Ballistic fingerprinting requires that firearm manufacturers store images of these markings allowing for gun identification. Microstamping is a newer technology that involves laser engraving a serial number onto cartridges after a gun is fired. These firearm identification methods allow for cartridge cases recovered at crime scenes to be linked to the particular gun that fired them. The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives has reported that, “Numerous violent crimes involving firearms have been solved through the use of the system, many of which would hot
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have been solved without it.”2 Certain states have adopted ballistic fingerprinting and microstamping requirements. 1. Robert M. Thompson et al., Ballistic Imaging and Comparison of Crime Gun Evidence by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms 4 (May 13, 2002). 2. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms & Explosives, NIBIN Success Story from the Charlotte Field Division, Triple Murder Solved with NIBIN, at http://www.atf.gov/content/Firearms/firearms-enforcement/NIBIN/success-stories/triple-murdersolved-with-NIBIN#overlay-context=content/NIBIN-helps-nab-multi-state-armed-robberysuspects. Owner Theft Reporting In contrast to licensed dealers, there is no federal law requiring that gun owners report lost or stolen firearms. The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco & Firearms reported that at least 500,000 firearms are stolen from owner residencies every year.1 Certain states require owners to report the loss or theft of particular or any firearms. 1. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco & Firearms, U.S. Department of the Treasury, Following the Gun: Enforcing Federal Laws Against Firearms Traffickers xi, 41 (June 2000), at http://www.mayorsagainstillegalguns.org/downloads/pdf/Following_the_Gun%202000.pdf.
Background Checks or Additions Universal Background Check Federal law requires all licensed dealers to perform a background check.1 The Gun Control Act of 1968 specifies that a license is required for persons “engaged in the business” of dealing firearms must be licensed; this term was further clarified by the 1986 McClure-Volkmer Act as a person who deals firearms as a “regular course of trade or business” but excluded a person who “makes occasional sales, exchanges, or purchases of firearms for the enhancement of a personal collection or for a hobby”. A ‘private loophole’ is thus created whereby unlicensed dealers are not required to perform a background check. It has been estimated that approximately 40% of all gun sales in America are private transactions that do require background checks.1 Certain states have enacted universal background check requirements and are subdivided as concerning handguns alone or all firearms. 1. 18 U.S.C. §§ 922(t) 2. Philip J. Cook & Jens Ludwig, Guns in America: National Survey on Private Ownership and Use of Firearms, U.S. Department of Justice, National Institute of Justice Research in Brief 6-7 (May 1997), at https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles/165476.pdf Permit Law Involvement Procurement of a permit to purchase a firearm is not required under federal law.1 However, some states do require gun purchasers to obtain a state permit. These states may or may not involve law enforcement in the permitting process.
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1. Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence. http://smartgunlaws.org/licensing-of-gun-ownerspurchasers-policy-summary/. Retrieved 5/2/2015. Fingerprinting There is federal law in regards to obtaining a permit to purchase a firearm. However, certain states have this requirement.1 Some of these states require that fingerprinting the potential purchaser is performed as part of this process. 1. Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence. http://smartgunlaws.org/licensing-of-gun-ownerspurchasers-policy-summary/. Retrieved 5/2/2015. Safety Training While there is no federal law requiring potential gun purchasers to obtain a permit, certain states have legislation to this effect. As a part of the permit process, a subset of these states require the purchaser to complete safety training. This is training is designed to provide gun owners with information concerning firearm laws and safe storage and handling practices.1 1. Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence. http://smartgunlaws.org/licensing-of-gun-ownerspurchasers-policy-summary/. Retrieved 5/2/2015. Extension of Background-Check Limit Licensed firearm dealers are unable to transfer a firearm to a purchaser until a background check is performed under the National Instant Criminal Background Check System, a division of the FBI.1 If this background check is unable to be performed within 3 days, the dealer may complete the transaction. The average time it takes the FBI to deem a purchaser ineligible is 25 days.2 Concomitantly, the FBI estimates that 3,722 firearms were purchased through this caveat in 2012, leading to their recommendation to extend the three day limit.2,3 Certain states have adopted legislation that extends this three day limit ranging from seven to fourteen days. 1. 18 U.S.C. § 922(t)(1) 2. U.S. General Accounting Office, Gun Control: Implementation of the National Instant Criminal Background Check System 13 (Feb. 2000), at http://www.gao.gov/new.items/g100064.pdf. 3. Criminal Justice Information Services Division of the Federal Bureau of Investigation, U.S. Dep’t of Justice, National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) Operations 2012, at http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/2012-operations-report. Closure of Gun Show Loophole Federal law requires that only licensed dealers perform background checks of potential firearm purchasers.1 The “gun show loophole” refers to the exemption of private dealers, defined as person who “makes occasional sales, exchanges, or purchases of firearms for the enhancement of a personal collection or for a hobby”, from needing to perform background checks.2 While some
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states close this loophole by requiring universal background checks [see above], i.e. both licensed and private dealers, other states mitigate this exemption in various ways. Certain states require that gun purchasers obtain permits prior to buying long guns (rifles and shotguns), handguns or any firearm.3 Other states require that private dealers at gun shows in particular perform background checks prior to selling long guns, handguns or any firearm.3 1. 18 U.S.C. §§ 922(t) 2. 18 U.S.C § 921(a)(21)(C) Ammunition Purchaser Records Certain federal regulations concerning firearms also apply to ammunition. Prohibited purchaser categories and minimum age laws are applicable to both.1 Federal law also prohibits the production and sale of armor piercing ammunition, with few exceptions.2 Additional regulations on ammunition, such as dealer licensing and recordkeeping requirements, stipulated in the Gun Control Act of 1968 were repealed by Congress in 1986 through the Firearm Owners’ Protection Act.3 Some states have responded by enacting laws that require ammunition sellers to obtain a license and/or maintain records of ammunition sellers.1 1. Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence. http://smartgunlaws.org/ammunition-regulation-policysummary/. Retrieved 5/6/2015. 2. 18 U.S.C. §§ 921(a)(17), 922(a)(7), (8); 27 C.F.R. § 478.37. 3. Gun Control Act of 1968, Pub. L. No. 90-618, 82 Stat. 1213; Firearms Owners’ Protection Act, 99 Pub. L. No. 308, 100 Stat. 449 (1986). Ammunition Brady Check The same persons prohibited from purchasing firearms under federal law (e.g. underage, domestic violence offender) are also prohibited from buying ammunition.1 However, unlike firearms there is no federal requirement that licensed ammunition dealers perform background checks. Ammunition regulation has received recent attention following the Aurora movie theater shooting as the perpetrator purchased 3,000 rounds of each handgun and rifle ammunition, 350 shotgun shells and a 100-round magazine from online retailers in the months preceding the incident.2 Certain states have sought to regulate ammunition through requirement of background checks at the point of sale (Brady check) or purchaser attainment of a permit prior to acquisition. 1. 18 U.S.C. § 922(b)(1) 2. Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence, America’s Ammunition Crisis: Few Laws Exist to Prevent Purchases by Dangerous People Online and in Stores. July 30, 2012, at http://smartgunlaws.org/americas-ammunition-crisis-few-laws-exist-to-prevent-purchases-bydangerous-people-online-and-in-stores/.
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Child access prevention laws (CAP) Locks (Integrated, External, Standards) Under the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act of 2005, federally licensed firearm dealers are restricted from the sale of a handgun unless the purchaser is also provided with a gun safety or storage device.1 While there are no specific federal requirements concerning locks, in January 2013 the President signed an executive order calling for the Consumer Product Safety Commission to assess the efficacy of gun locks.2 Of note, between 1999-2010, 2,383 youths between 0-21 years died as a result of unintentional firearm injuries.3 There are a variety of firearm locking mechanisms though they are generally divided as being either 1) integrated, in which the trigger or hammer is locked internally, or 2) external, whereby the trigger is locked through an device placed on the exterior of the weapon.4 Certain states enforce standards on the quality of external locks, require external locks to be sold with all handguns or require that integrated locks are sold on all handguns. 1. 18 U.S.C. § 922(z)(1) 2. The White House, Now is the Time: The President’s Plan to Protect Our Children and Our Communities by Reducing Gun Violence 10, Jan. 16, 2013, at http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/docs/wh_now_is_the_time_full.pdf. 3. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Web-Based Injury Statistics Query & Reporting System (WISQARS) Injury Mortality Reports, 1999-2010, for National, Regional, and States (Sept. 2013), http://webappa.cdc.gov/sasweb/ncipc/dataRestriction_inj.html. 4. Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence. http://smartgunlaws.org/safe-storage-gun-locks-policysummary/. Retrieved 5/6/2015. Child Handgun Restrictions In 2009, only NJ had passed this law. This law requires that only authorized users are able to operate new handguns restricting handgun use among children. New Jersey provides that “[a] person who knows or reasonably should know that a minor [under 16 years of age] is likely to gain access to a loaded firearm at a premises under the person’s control” is criminally liable for a misdemeanor if a minor gains access to a firearm, unless the person: Stores the firearm in a securely locked box or container; Stores the firearm in a location which a reasonable person would believe to be secure; or Secures the firearm with a trigger lock. 1. N.J. Stat. Ann. § 2C:58-15c 2. N.J. Stat. Ann. § 2C:58-15a Child Access Child access prevention legislation refers to laws that impose criminal liability on adults who knowingly or unknowingly allow minors unsupervised access to their firearm(s).1 There are no federal laws concerning child access prevention in this respect. The U.S. Department of Justice reports that most children are aware of the location their parents store firearms and that
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approximately one third of handguns are kept loaded and locked.2 Child access prevention laws at the state level differ with respect to when the adult becomes liable.1 This standard of criminal liability varies from when a child simply gains access to a firearm to only when a child uses the firearm. States also differ with respect to the age they consider to be a “minor” with respect to these laws.1 This ranges from under 18 to under 13. 1. Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence. http://smartgunlaws.org/child-access-prevention-policysummary/. Retrieved 5/2/2015. 2. Philip J. Cook & Jens Ludwig, U.S. Dep’t of Justice, Nat’l Inst. of Justice, Guns in America: National Survey on Private Ownership and Use of Firearms, at 7 (1997). Juvenile Handgun Purchases Federal age restrictions on firearm purchases are classified based on type of dealer (licensed or unlicensed) and firearm (handgun or long gun).1 Licensed dealers may not sell handguns to persons under 21 years and may not sell long guns (shotguns or rifles) to persons under 18 years. Unlicensed dealers may not sell handguns to persons under 18 years though they are under no restrictions in regards to selling long guns. In 2010, 3,459 people under 21 years died as a result from firearm injuries.2 With respect to handguns, as assessed in our analysis, certain states have increased their minimum age requirements to purchase handguns to 21 years. 1. 18 U.S.C. § 922(b)(1), (c)(1) and 18 U.S.C. § 922(x)(1), (5). 2. U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Web-Based Injury Statistics Query & Reporting System Injury Mortality Reports, 1999-2010, for National, Regional, and States. http://webappa.cdc.gov/sasweb/ncipc/dataRestriction_inj.html.
Assault Weapons Restrictions Assault Weapons Ban The Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of 1994 banned “assault weapons” which it defined as semi-automatic rifles, pistols or shotguns with two or more characteristic features (e.g. detachable magazine, telescoping or folding stock, pistol grips, barrel shrouds).1 The ban also included nineteen specific assault weapons. However, this law had a sunset clause in 2004 and the ban was not continued thereafter. A report by Mayors Against Illegal Guns found that among mass shootings between 2009 to 2013 those involving assault weapons or large capacity magazines resulted in 57% more people killed compared with those incidents not involving these weapons.2 Some states have adopted laws that ban assault weapons based on the presence of one or more characteristic features, two or more features, or two or more features though for pistols only. 1. 18 U.S.C. § 921 2. Mayors Against Illegal Guns, Analysis of Recent Mass Shootings 1 (Jan. 2013), at http://libcloud.s3.amazonaws.com/9/56/4/1242/analysis-of-recent-mass-shootings.pdf.
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Large Magazine Ban The Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement act of 1994 also banned “large capacity ammunition feeding device(s)”, defined as “a magazine, belt, drum, feed strip, or similar device” capable of firing more than 10 rounds of ammunition. This ban however expired in 2004 and was not continued. A review of 62 mass shootings between 1982 and 2012 found that assault weapons or large capacity magazines were recovered in 50%.2 Large magazines were used in many high-profile mass shootings including Columbine High School (1999), Ft. Hood (2009), Tucson (2011), Aurora (2012) and Sandy Hook Elementary (2012).3 Some states have enacted legislation that limits lawful magazines to 10 rounds or less or 15 rounds or less. 1. 18 U.S.C. § 921 2. Mark Follman et al., More Than Half of Mass Shooters Used Assault Weapons and HighCapacity Magazines, Mother Jones (Feb. 27, 2013), at http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2013/02/assault-weapons-high-capacity-magazines-massshootings-feinstein. 3. Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence. http://smartgunlaws.org/stand-your-ground-policysummary/. Retrieved 4/28/2015.
Public Place Restrictions Concealed Carry Weapons Federal law allows any “qualified law enforcement officer” or any “qualified retired law enforcement officer” with proper identification to carry a concealed firearm.1 Examples of being deemed as “qualified” include not being a subject of any disciplinary action in the former and retiring in good standing in the latter.2 In the twentieth century, some states gave law enforcement the ability to issue permits to private persons who could demonstrate a legitimate need to carry a concealed weapon (CCW permits).2 States have continued to become more lax in their allowance of private citizens to carry weapons to the extent that four states do not require any permit to carry a concealed firearm in public. Of note, state administrations and private persons have the authority to restrict any persons with the ability to carry a concealed weapon on governmental or private property, respectively.2 The states that require a CCW permit are subdivided as 1) “may issue” states in which the issuing authority are granted wide discretion to deny the CCW permits or 2) “shall issue” states in which the issuing authority is provided limited or no discretion to deny the permits.2 1. 18 U.S.C. § 926B and 18 U.S.C. § 926C. 2. Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence. http://smartgunlaws.org/concealed-weapons-permittingpolicy-summary/. Retrieved 5/6/2015. Stand Your Ground Prior to the 1990s, the traditional legal standard required that persons confronted with a potential threat to his/her safety in a public place must “retreat as much as is practicable” prior to the use of deadly force for self-defense.1 In 1994, Utah was the first state to adopt a law removing this “duty to retreat” in public places before the use of deadly force, provided that the person “reasonably believes that deadly force is necessary to prevent imminent death or great bodily
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harm.” Florida enacted a similar law in 2005 and was soon followed by _ more states prior to and including 2009. This legislation gained notoriety in the 2012 shooting death of Trayvon Martin. A statement released that year by the Association of Prosecuting Attorneys claimed that these laws “given the killer immunity from prosecution.”1 This “Stand Your Ground” law is the only permissive law assessed in this analysis. 1. Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence. http://smartgunlaws.org/stand-your-ground-policysummary/. Retrieved 4/28/2015.
Firearm legislature categories considered in the analysis: We considered 25 different firearm laws in each state along with six categories. Firearm dealer regulations category consisted 6 laws: gun dealer license, record keeping and retention, report records to state, mandatory theft reporting, gun store security precaution and police inspection. Owner purchase regulations comprised of three laws: bulk purchases limitation, firearm identification (ballistic fingerprinting or micro-stamping) and owner theft reporting. Background checks or additions category consisted of 8 laws: universal background check, fingerprinting, safety training, extension of background-check limit, permit law involvement, closure of gun show loophole, ammunition purchaser records and ammunition Brady check. The four child access prevention laws (CAP) considered were locks (integrated, external and standards), child handgun restrictions, child access and juvenile handgun purchases. The assault weapons ban (AWB) category was comprised of 2 laws: ban on sale of assault weapons and ban on sale of large magazines. The public place restrictions (PPR) category was comprised of two laws: concealed carry weapons and stand your ground (SYG). We did not use workplace or campus restriction laws, since most states had implemented these laws.
Brady Center Firearm Legislation Score: Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence and the Brady Center to Prevent Gun Violence (collectively called, the Brady Center) working with the Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence (formerly Legal Community Against Violence), summarizes all firearm laws in each state since 2007. They prepare and present legislative scorecards for every state for each year based on the type of firearm laws enacted during that particular year and the existing forearm laws. The “legislative strength score” for each state was developed using arbitrary empirical weights assigned by the Brady Center for each set of laws, scaling the scores out of 100 points and giving additional weight to laws believed to be more important. A detailed description of each of the laws and the weighted scoring system is available from the Brady Center (http://www.bradycampaign.org/sites/default/files/SCGLM-Final10-spreads-points.pdf). Please note that there are changes in these scoring by year.
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Supplementary Appendix 2: Description of covariates used in this study
Firearm mortality rate in 2009 We used firearm-related mortality rate per 100,000 from 2009. Rates of firearm mortality in each state for year 2009 and according to all intents were obtained from querying the restricted version of Center for Disease Control’s (CDC), Web-Based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS).1 We extracted counts of non-firearm homicide and overall firearm mortality counts and rates in each state during 2009. Mortality data in the WISQARS is compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics using data from the death registry. 1. Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System) (WISQARS) [online]. National Centers for Injury Prevention and Control, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Available from URL: http://www.cdc.gov/ncipc/wisqars. Accessed March 20, 2015; 2005
Firearm export rate in 2009 States have “reciprocity” laws where firearms purchased in one state may or may not be admitted in another state. For example, New York does not have a constitutional provision for the right to bear arms. By statute, New York does not recognize another state’s license to carry. However one may transport a firearm in the state depending on certain criteria. The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives’ (ATF) traces firearms on behalf of thousands of Federal, State, local and foreign law enforcement agencies. ATF has prepared the following state-by-state reports utilizing trace data, which is intended to provide the public with insight into firearms recoveries. We used firearm export rates from 2009 reported by ATF for this study. While in our model we use firearm ownership, which is a surrogate measure of amount of firearms in each state, we also have to account for firearms bought in the state and transported to other states, there by requiring firearm export rates to be one of the important covariates.
Firearm ownership rate in 2013 In another study we assessed gun ownership rates in 2013 across the USA and gun ownership rates in each state. The data was from a nationally representative sample of 4000 US adults, from 50 states and District of Columbia, aged >18 years and the survey was performed in October 2013. One-third (29.1%) of Americans reported owning a gun. The gun ownership rates varied widely between states, ranging from 5.2% in Delaware to 61.7% in Alaska.1 1. Kalesan B, Villarreal MD, Keyes KM, Galea S. Gun ownership and social gun culture. Injury prevention: journal of the International Society for Child and Adolescent Injury Prevention. 2015)
Unemployment rates in 2010 The annual averages of the employment status of the civilian non-institutional population for the year 2010 was obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.1 Annual data on employment, and unemployment in the states and sub-groups within the United States are available from the Current Population Survey and the Local Area Unemployment Statistics program.2,3 The Current Population Survey is conducted by U.S. Census Bureau for the Bureau of Labor Statistics and samples about 50,000 households,2 while LAUS is a Federal-State cooperative program in participation with State employment security agencies.3
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1. Employment status of the civilian non-institutional population by sex, race, Hispanic or Latino ethnicity, marital status, and detailed age, 2010 annual averages. Washington, DC: U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics; 2010 2. United States Department of Labor. The Current Population Survey (CPS). Washington D.C: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Accessed 11 Mar 2015. http://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/tp63rv.pdf;2002 3. Local Area Unemployment Statistics. Washington, DC: U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics; 2015
Non-firearm homicide rates We used non-firearm homicide rates per 100,000 in 2009 as a measure of crime within each state. Rates of non-firearm homicide in each state for year 2009 were obtained from querying the restricted version of Center for Disease Control’s (CDC), Web-Based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System (WISQARS).1 Mortality data in the WISQARS is compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics using data from the death registry. 1. Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System) (WISQARS) [online]. National Centers for Injury Prevention and Control, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Available from URL: http://www.cdc.gov/ncipc/wisqars. Accessed March 20, 2015; 2005
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Supplementary Appendix 3: Explanation of statistical analysis performed to predict discrete change “Fourth, we then predicted the discrete change in firearm mortality rates associated with federal level implementation of three most effective laws.” Predictions are generally based on the final model. The details are as below. Here we first ran the final model and then predicted the discrete change. Discrete change is the difference in the predicted value as one independent variable changes values while all others are held constant at specified values. The discrete change is computed when a variable changes from its minimum to its maximum (Min->Max), from 0 to 1 (0->1), from its specified value minus .5 units to its specified value plus .5 (-+1/2), and from its specified value minus .5 standard deviations to its value plus .5 standard deviations (-+sd/2). In column “Final model” of Table 3, using the final model, we held the covariate “firearm mortality rate in 2009” at the national rate (10.22 per 100,000) to assess the firearm mortality rate in 2010 in the presence of each law. We also provide information on the predicted probability of firearm mortality in the presence of each law, for example the predicted probability of firearm mortality will drop by 0.91 in the presence of gun dealer license. Lack of federal laws is the main source of heterogeneity in firearm laws in the country. Therefore, it is helpful to understand how much the risk estimates will reduce given there is federal level implementation of 3 of the best effective laws (universal background checks for firearm purchase, background checks for ammunition and firearm identification). We found that if background check law was implemented, the firearm mortality rate to reduce from 10·35 to 4·46 per 100,000. Similarly, in the presence of ammunition background checks, the rates would decrease to 1·99 per 100,000 and with firearm identification requirements the rates will be 1·81 per 100,000. Based on the current model, on a national level, implementation of background checks for firearm purchases, for ammunition purchases and firearm identification may reduce firearm mortality rates by 57%, 81% and 83% respectively.
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Supplementary Figure 1: Conceptual diagram
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Supplementary Figure 2: Predicted probability of firearm mortality in each state
New-England
Maine Connecticut Rhode Island Massachusetts Vermont New Hampshire
Mid-Atlantic
New York New Jersey Pennsylvania
East North Central
Illinois Ohio Michigan Indiana Wisconsin
West North Central
South Atlantic
East South Central
Kansas South Dakota Iowa North Dakota Minnesota Nebraska Missouri Georgia West Virginia Florida Virginia North Carolina Maryland South Carolina Delaware Kentucky Alabama Mississippi Tennessee
West South Central
Arkansas Oklahoma Louisiana Texas
Mountain
New Mexico Idaho Arizona Colorado Utah Wyoming Montana Nevada
Pacific
Washington California Hawaii Oregon Alaska
8.3 47.0 50.4 53.1 88.7 89.7 50.1 51.2 51.4 50.1 51.5 53.0 57.1 63.5 28.5 38.2 43.8 49.3 54.5 55.1 74.8 31.6 43.6 44.0 50.1 51.1 54.2 59.6 68.6 26.6 41.5 58.9 69.1 28.2 39.5 47.6 49.6 31.9 33.7 40.3 45.4 52.3 52.8 63.0 72.8 49.2 49.6 60.9 63.5 99.8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Probabilities of observing the firearm deaths reported in 2010, %
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Supplementary Table 1: Model fit statistics Characteristics Deviance goodness-of-fit P for deviance McFadden's Adj R2 AIC Model 1: 25 firearm laws 408·7743 Model 2: Laws 236·938 +Firearm ownership rate Model 3: Laws 137·828 +Firearm ownership rate + Firearm export rate Model 4: Laws 63·44683 +Firearm ownership rate + Firearm export rate +Non-firearm homicide rate Model 5: Laws 49·6624 +Firearm ownership rate +Firearm export rate +Non-firearm homicide rate +Unemployment rate Model 6: Laws 45·14405 +Firearm ownership rate +Firearm export rate +Non-firearm homicide rate +Unemployment rate +Percentage of black population Model 7: Laws 16·71082 +Firearm ownership rate +Firearm export rate +Non-firearm homicide rate +Unemployment rate +Fatal firearm injury rate, 2009 We chose model 7 as the best predictive model
AIC*n
