Sep 2, 2015 - May 23 - June 10, 2015 ... market and social research methodologies. Figures in charts and ... Upazila Par
Survey of Bangladesh Public Opinion May 23 - June 10, 2015
International Republican Institute 1
Detailed Methodology • The survey was conducted by Nielsen-Bangladesh under the supervision of Rob Varsalone of Global Strategic Partners and the International Republican Institute between May 23 and June 10, 2015. • Data was collected using a multi-stage stratified probability sample and through in-person, in-home interviews. The sample was stratified by the seven administrative divisions, by district and by urban and rural locations. • The sample consisted of 2,550 respondents (response rate: 47 percent) aged 18 and older, and was representative of voting-age adults nationally. • The sample was distributed into 255 primary sampling units (PSU) from all 64 districts of all seven divisions. PSUs were defined as mouza in rural areas and as mahalla in urban areas. • The probability-proportional-to-size method was used to select localities. After identifying a centrally located starting point, the Date Method was used to select the first house and then Systematic Random Sampling was used to select the appropriate household. Within each household, the Kish Grid was then used to select respondents 18 years and older. • Interview teams were comprised of both males and females. • The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus two percent at the mid-range with a confidence level of 95 percent. • The information in this report has been compiled in accordance with international standards for market and social research methodologies. Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.
2
Government Shores Up its Support
International Republican Institute 3
Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by the…? Army
86%
8%
Media
9%
Civil Society
9%
83% 80% 76%
Rapid Action Battalion Upazila Parishad
20% 74%
17%
Court
14%
Deputy Commissioner
14%
73% 72%
Prime Minister
67%
26%
Government
29%
Election Commission
29%
66% 59% 46% 46%
Political Parties
43%
Police
41%
Opposition Parliament
53% 48%
21%
67%
Approve
Disapprove 4
Do you believe things in Bangladesh are heading in the right direction, or are they heading in the wrong direction? 62%
59%
56%
62%
39% 33%
Nov 2013
35%
Jan 2014 Right Direction
36%
Sept 2014 June 2015 Wrong Direction 55
Do you believe things in Bangladesh are heading in the right direction, or are they heading in the wrong direction? (Right Track by Demographic) Jan 2014
Sept 2014
29% 36%
50% 58%
58% 63%
Dhaka
37%
55%
66%
Chittagong
20%
57%
55%
Rajshahi
25%
60%
48%
Khulna
45%
49%
60%
Barisal
51%
45%
75%
Sylhet
44%
49%
73%
Rangpur
35%
70%
65%
Urban Rural
June 2015
Division
6
Top reasons given for why Bangladesh is on the right track. (Open-ended, Pre-coded)
73%
72% 59%
35% 28%
31% 21% 8%
18%
18%
8%
8%
1% Nov 2013 (n=842)
Jan 2014 (n=884)
More Development Better Economy Improving Security
9%
1%
3%
Sept 2014 (n=1,430)
June 2015 (n=1,578)
Improved Education Improving Law and Order 7
Top reasons given for why Bangladesh is on the wrong track. (Open-ended, Pre-coded)
86%
63%
58%
32% 22%
24% 17% 8% 5%
7% 6%
Nov 2013 (n=1,587)
Jan 2014 (n=1,512)
Political Instability Price Hikes Lack of Development
2%
20%
5%
Sept 2014 (n=1,002)
4% June 2015 (n=904)
Frequent Strikes Poor Economy Lack of Law and Order
8
For each of the following issues, how would you rate the national government’s performance? Improving Education
73%
22%
5%
Healthcare
73%
22%
5%
Water and Sanitation
73%
22%
5%
Infrastructure Development
72%
Water Availability
72%
Gender Equality
66%
Keeping the Peace
61%
Inflation
59%
Employment
58%
Poverty Reduction
58%
Good
Bad
23%
24% 23% 31% 39% 40% 37%
Don't Know/No Response
6%
4% 12% 8% 2% 3% 6%
9
For each of the following issues, how would you rate the national government’s performance? (continued) Electricity Availability
58%
Dealing with Hartals
58%
Housing
56%
Democratic Reforms
54%
Fighting Crime
54%
Ending Sectarian Conflict
52%
Land Rights
52%
Fighting Corruption
48%
Ending Ethnic Conflict
48%
Good
Bad
39%
3%
33%
9%
27%
16%
30%
16%
43%
3%
30%
18%
28%
20%
47%
25%
Don't Know/No Response
5%
27%
10
Sharp Divide Remains
International Republican Institute 11
Thinking now about elections, when would you like to see the next national elections occur? 45% 43% 40%
40%
4% 2% The parliament should complete its current term
2%
Within the next four years
1%
2%
Within the next three years Sept 2014
1%
5%
1%
Within the next two years
Within the next As soon as possible year
June 2015 12
Dominant Concern Over Corruption
International Republican Institute 13
What do you think is the most important problem facing Bangladesh? (Open-ended) June 2015
Corruption
24%
Political Instability
16%
Security/Law and Order
15%
Unemployment
7%
Bad Infrastructure
6%
Power/Electricity/Gas
6%
Education
A similar question asked in the Nov 2013, Jan 2014 and Sept 2014 surveys as “What are the top three issues in Bangladesh? (Open-ended)” yielded the following results:
Nov 2013
Jan 2014
Sept 2014
Corruption
20%
36%
20%
3%
Infrastructure
3%
1%
17%
Disaster Relief
3%
Political Instability
34%
39%
13%
Poverty Reduction
2%
Political Reform
2%
Economy
23%
7%
13%
Price Inflation
2%
Crime
11%
11%
9%
Food Security
2%
Health Care
1%
Water Supply/Sanitation
1%
Religious Extremism
1% 14
Have you ever paid a bribe or given a gift to a government employee or official in order to obtain government services? Don’t Know/No Response 1% Yes 11%
No 88%
15
Have you ever paid a bribe or given a gift… (Of those responding yes in previous question, n=272)
For Health Services in a Public Clinic or Hospital
16%
To Obtain Justice To Pass Exams For Job Consideration For a License/Permit/Service Yes
No
82%
33%
7%
2%
66%
91%
25%
1%
2%
73%
29%
69%
2%
2%
Don't Know/No Response
16
How much have you had to pay? (Of those responding that they have paid a bribe, n=272)
More Than 5,000 taka
53%
1,001-5,000 taka
19%
501-1,000 taka
10%
101-500 taka
10-100 taka
14%
4%
17
Elections and Campaign Finance
International Republican Institute 18
Do you know how to submit an official election complaint?
June 2015
9%
91%
Sept 2014
7%
93%
Yes
No
If yes, how did you learn about the process to submit an official complaint? Sept 2014 n=181 June 2015 n=223 Election Commission Official Local Law Enforcement Local Judiciary Civil Society Organization Local Government Bodies Returning/Deputy Officer Political Party Media Don't Know/No Response
24% 17%
5%
8% 7% 7%
10%
23%
28%
Sept 2014 June 2015
2% 19
Where do you believe candidates for elections receive most of the money for their campaigns?
50%
Candidate's Own Money
Political Parties Supporters
20%
27%
4% 3%
Local Businesses/Organizations
2% 1%
Shakedowns/Intimidation
2% 1%
Government Party
1%
Corruption
1%
Don't Know/No Response
60%
Sept 2014 June 2015
14% 15%
20
Have you ever personally witnessed incumbent candidates using government offices or vehicles during their campaigns?
June 2015
7%
85%
Sept 2014 3%
89%
Yes
No
8%
8%
Don't Know/No Response
21
Have you ever been asked to contribute money or free services* to a candidate or political party for an election campaign?
2%
2%
June 2015: Money
96%
2% 19%
June 2015: Free Services
Sept 2014 4%
Yes
79%
92%
No
4%
Don't Know/No Response
*In September 2014, the question was phrased to include money and free services. In June 2015, money and free services were separated into two questions. 22
Does it bother you if a candidate spends more money on his/her campaign than is allowed by the law?
June 2015
45%
Sept 2014
37%
Yes, a Lot
A Little
21%
26%
Not at All
27%
29%
7%
8%
Don't Know/No Response
23
Does it bother you if a candidate spends his/her personal money on campaign expenses?
June 2015
Sept 2014
55%
28%
Yes, a Lot
27%
25%
A Little
Not at All
5%
40%
13%
7%
Don't Know/No Response
24
Agree or Disagree? Information on a candidate’s assets and his/her campaign expenses should be public knowledge.
June 2015
63%
16%
6% 6%
9%
1% Sept 2014
74%
20%
3% 2%
Strongly Agree
Somewhat Agree
Somewhat Disagree
Strongly Disagree
Don't Know/No Response
25
Do you believe the election commission is capable of tracking and regulating money spent on campaigns?
June 2015
34%
Sept 2014
38%
53%
Yes
No
28%
33%
15%
Don't Know/No Response
26
Thinking about the election law, as far as you know, is it illegal for candidates to provide food and small gifts to voters during the campaigns?
June 2015
78%
Sept 2014
79%
Yes
No
16%
16%
6%
4%
Don't Know/No Response
27
Thinking some more about the election law, as far as you know, are candidates required to submit to the returning officer a list of what they spent money on during the campaigns?
June 2015
Sept 2014
Yes, it is required
43%
7%
63%
No, it is not required
50%
10%
27%
Don't Know/No Response
28
Would you support a law that bans general strikes, blockades and other forms of violent protest?
June 2015
Sept 2014
53%
59%
Jan 2014
18%
70%
Nov 2013
Strongly Support
24%
11%
4%
8%
11%
4%
27%
84%
Somewhat Support
9%
Somewhat Oppose
3%
15%
Strongly Oppose
1%
Don't Know/No Response
*In November 2013 and January 2014, intensity (“strongly” versus “somewhat”) was not included in the question phrasing. 29
Where do you get information related to candidates and political parties? Family Members
37%
Media
23%
Political Party/Candidate Platforms
20%
Village/Community Leaders
12%
Civil Society Organizations
6%
Religious Group/Religious Leaders
1%
Don't Know/No Response
1%
What or who influences your voting decision the most? Family Members
47%
Political Party/Candidate Platforms
15%
Media
12%
On my Own
10%
Village/Community Leaders
8%
Civil Society Organizations Don't Know/No Response
5% 1% 30
Should a non-party, caretaker government be brought back before the next parliamentary elections?
June 2015
67%
Sept 2014
68%
Jan 2014
22%
25%
77%
Yes
No
11%
18%
8%
5%
Don't Know/No Response
31
Ratings and Outlooks
International Republican Institute 32
Overall, how would you rate the current economic conditions in Bangladesh?
June 2015
Sept 2014
28%
44%
22%
Very Good
47%
Somewhat Good
14%
19%
Somewhat Bad
12%
11%
Very Bad
33
Overall, how would you rate the current security conditions in Bangladesh?
June 2015
Sept 2014
29%
26%
Very Good
39%
41%
Somewhat Good
Somewhat Bad
14%
16%
17%
16%
Very Bad
34
Overall, how would you rate the political stability of Bangladesh?
June 2015
Sept 2014
22%
19%
Very Stable
42%
40%
Somewhat Stable
11%
22%
Somewhat Unstable
18%
16%
Very Unstable
35
Why do you think the political situation is unstable? (Of those responding unstable in previous question, Open-ended) n=742 Frequent Hartals
23%
Political Conflicts
10%
Corruption has Increased
7%
Security
7%
Election was Not Free and Fair
7%
Too Much Quarreling
4%
Violence has Increased
3%
Too Many Incidents of Forced Disappearance
2%
Both Parties Involved in Violent Politics
2%
36
Thinking some more about the political stability of Bangladesh, in the year ahead do you think that it will improve, worsen or stay the same?
June 2015
48%
Improve
Same
15%
Worsen
20%
17%
Don't Know/No Response
37
Thinking about the personal economic situation of you and your family, in the past year has it improved, worsened or stayed the same?
1% June 2015
61%
Sept 2014
19%
49%
21%
19%
29% 1%
Improved
Same
Worsened
Don't Know/No Response
38
Thinking some more about the personal economic situation of you and your family, in the coming year do you think it will improve, worsen or stay the same?
June 2015
63%
Sept 2014
60%
Improve
Same
13%
16%
Worsen
10%
14%
14%
10%
Don't Know/No Response
39
Do you and your family have enough income to afford basic commodities (rice, milk, eggs, fish, dhal*, etc.) in the market?
1% June 2015
86%
13%
1% Sept 2014
78%
Yes
No
21%
Don't Know/No Response
*Dhal is the Bengali term for lentils, a regional dietary staple. 40
Do you expect the price of basic commodities to be higher or lower six months from now?
June 2015
23%
55%
8% 5%
7%
2% 1% Sept 2014
24%
60%
9% 5% 1%
Much Higher
Slightly Higher
Same
Slightly Lower
Much Lower
Don't Know/No Response
41
Can you tell me which party best reflects each of the statements below? They Have Strong Leadership
They Have Many Young Leaders
23%
They Support Women
51% 26%
24%
They Are Trustworthy
49% 27%
47%
26% 27%
They Have Good Policies
46%
26% 28%
They Support Democratic Reform
27%
They Care About People Like Me
27%
Their Policies Help the Poor
23%
They Consistently Fight Corruption Awami League
54%
22% 24%
25% Bangladesh Nationalist Party
42%
31%
42%
31%
42%
35% 41% 34%
Neither/Don't Know/No Response 42
Can you tell me which party best reflects each of the statements below? Would do a better job… Improving Education
19%
On Infrastructure
53%
23% 24%
Improving Healthcare
23%
With Security
51% 26%
25%
26%
Strengthening the Nation
26%
44% 30% 43% 31% 42%
20%
Maintaining Political Stability
Awami League
47%
28%
On the Economy
Ending Ethnic Conflict
54%
27%
38% 25%
Bangladesh Nationalist Party
41% 34% Neither/Don't Know/No Response 43
Do you believe the Bangladesh Election Commission is completely fair and independent?
June 2015
Sept 2014
Jan 2014
33%
25%
38%
34%
10%
23%
14%
21%
14%
9%
Strongly Agree
Somewhat Agree
Strongly Disagree
Don't Know/No Response
33%
16%
11%
9%
9%
Somewhat Disagree
44
Women and Youth
International Republican Institute 45
Agree or Disagree? Women are equally represented in political decision-making positions in Bangladesh.
June 2015
Sept 2014
Strongly Agree
38%
43%
51%
Somewhat Agree
12%
29%
Somewhat Disagree
11%
7%
9%
Strongly Disagree
June 2015, by Gender
Men
Women
Strongly Agree
44%
33%
Somewhat Agree
37%
48%
Somewhat Disagree
11%
12%
Strongly Disagree
9%
6% 46
Agree or Disagree? Politicians listen to the needs and ideas of women.
Strongly Disagree 20%
Somewhat Disagree 29%
Strongly Agree 18%
Somewhat Agree 33%
June 2015, by Gender
Men
Women
Strongly Agree
18%
18%
Somewhat Agree
28%
38%
Somewhat Disagree
28%
29%
Strongly Disagree
26%
14% 47
If there are two candidates running for office and they are exactly the same aside from the fact that one is a man and one is a woman, which candidate would you prefer? June 2015
56%
Sept 2014
56%
Man
23%
21%
29%
Woman
15%
No Difference
By Gender
Sept 2014 Male Female
Prefer Man 79% 34%
Prefer Woman No Difference 7% 14% Male 51% 16% Female
June 2015 Prefer Man 69% 42%
Prefer Woman No Difference 10% 21% 37% 22% 48
Agree or Disagree? Politicians listen to the needs and ideas of young people.
June 2015
23%
Strongly Agree
33%
Somewhat Agree
26%
Somewhat Disagree
18%
Strongly Disagree
49
Agree or Disagree? Politicians listen to the needs and ideas of young people. (Cross-Tabulations, June 2015) Location Urban Rural Gender Male Female Age 18-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61+ Education Illiterate Literate/No Formal Schooling Class 1-4 Class 5-9 Junior High High School College Graduate
Strongly Disagree Somewhat Disagree Somewhat Agree 18% 23% 35% 18% 28% 33%
Strongly Agree 24% 22%
24% 12%
24% 29%
29% 38%
24% 22%
15% 19% 22% 17% 21%
27% 26% 25% 26% 25%
34% 32% 33% 34% 34%
24% 23% 20% 23% 20%
21%
20%
34%
25%
26% 15% 15% 17% 20% 22% 10%
28% 34% 26% 28% 27% 25% 28%
26% 32% 37% 32% 28% 25% 24%
20% 19% 22% 23% 25% 27% 38%
50
Perspectives on Democracy
International Republican Institute 51
In Bangladesh, if you could only have one or the other, which is more important to you: a democratic system of government or a prosperous economy?
59%
Democracy is Definitely More Important to Me
58%
9%
Democracy is Somewhat More Important to Me
7%
14%
Prosperity is Somewhat More Important to Me
20%
13%
Prosperity is Definitely More Important to Me
Don't Know/No Response
10%
5% 4%
June 2015
Sept 2014 52
Of the following statements, would you say you agree or disagree?
In a Democracy, the Economic System Runs Badly
Democracies Have Too Much Squabbling
15%
26%
Democracies Are Good at Maintaining Law and Order
Democracy May Have Problems, but It Is Still Better Than Other Forms of Government
Strongly Agree
Somewhat Agree
30%
Somewhat Disagree
26%
20%
42%
41%
53%
Strongly Disagree
17%
42%
9%
6% 9%
7%3%7%
28%
8% 4% 8%
Don't Know/No Response 53
Agree or Disagree? Voting gives me a chance to influence decision-making in the country.
1% June 2015
67%
21%
5% 5%
2% 2% Sept 2014
69%
25% 2%
Strongly Agree Somewhat Disagree Don't Know/No Response
Somewhat Agree Strongly Disagree
54
Would you say you like or dislike…? 42% 46%
Bangladesh Nationalist Party 12%
60%
Awami League
29% 11% 25%
Jatiya Party
60% 15% 25%
Jamaat E Islami
60% 15%
Like
Dislike
Don't Know/No Response 55
Media
International Republican Institute 56
From which type of media are you most likely to get your news?
2%
June 2015
81%
13%
1%
1%
2%
Television
Word of Mouth
Newspapers
Social Media
Radio
Online News Sites
57
Demographics Monthly Household Income
Education
Less Than 5,000 taka* 5,001-10,000 taka 10,001-15,000 taka 15,001-20,000 taka 20,001-25,000 taka 25,001-30,000 taka 30,001-35,000 taka 35,001 taka or Greater
Illiterate Literate/No Formal Schooling Class 1-4 Class 5-9 Secondary School Certificate/Dakhil Higher Secondary Certificate Bachelor of Arts/Bachelor of Science Graduate Degree
7% 40% 25% 14% 5% 3% 1% 3%
Division Dhaka Chittagong Rajshahi Khulna Rangpur Sylhet Barisal
32% 20% 13% 11% 11% 7% 6%
Religion 19% 7% 13% 37%
Muslim Hindu Buddhist
12% 8%
Male Female
3% 2%
Area
Age 18-30 years 31-40 years 41-50 years 51-60 years 61 Years and Older
89% 10% 1%
Gender
Urban Rural
50% 50%
26% 74%
41% 26% 16% 10% 7%
*At the time of survey fieldwork, one Bangladeshi taka was equivalent to $0.013 USD. 58
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