Survey of Bangladesh Public Opinion - International Republican Institute

Survey of Bangladesh Public Opinion May 23 - June 10, 2015

International Republican Institute 1

Detailed Methodology • The survey was conducted by Nielsen-Bangladesh under the supervision of Rob Varsalone of Global Strategic Partners and the International Republican Institute between May 23 and June 10, 2015. • Data was collected using a multi-stage stratified probability sample and through in-person, in-home interviews. The sample was stratified by the seven administrative divisions, by district and by urban and rural locations. • The sample consisted of 2,550 respondents (response rate: 47 percent) aged 18 and older, and was representative of voting-age adults nationally. • The sample was distributed into 255 primary sampling units (PSU) from all 64 districts of all seven divisions. PSUs were defined as mouza in rural areas and as mahalla in urban areas. • The probability-proportional-to-size method was used to select localities. After identifying a centrally located starting point, the Date Method was used to select the first house and then Systematic Random Sampling was used to select the appropriate household. Within each household, the Kish Grid was then used to select respondents 18 years and older. • Interview teams were comprised of both males and females. • The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus two percent at the mid-range with a confidence level of 95 percent. • The information in this report has been compiled in accordance with international standards for market and social research methodologies. Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding.

2

Government Shores Up its Support


Do you approve or disapprove of the job being done by the…? Army

86%

8%

Media

9%

Civil Society

9%

83% 80% 76%

Rapid Action Battalion Upazila Parishad

20% 74%

17%

Court

14%

Deputy Commissioner

14%

73% 72%

Prime Minister

67%

26%

Government

29%

Election Commission

29%

66% 59% 46% 46%

Political Parties

43%

Police

41%

Opposition Parliament

53% 48%

21%

67%

Approve

Disapprove 4

Do you believe things in Bangladesh are heading in the right direction, or are they heading in the wrong direction? 62%

59%

56%

62%

39% 33%

Nov 2013

35%

Jan 2014 Right Direction

36%

Sept 2014 June 2015 Wrong Direction 55

Do you believe things in Bangladesh are heading in the right direction, or are they heading in the wrong direction? (Right Track by Demographic) Jan 2014

Sept 2014

29% 36%

50% 58%

58% 63%

Dhaka

37%

55%

66%

Chittagong

20%

57%

55%

Rajshahi

25%

60%

48%

Khulna

45%

49%

60%

Barisal

51%

45%

75%

Sylhet

44%

49%

73%

Rangpur

35%

70%

65%

Urban Rural

June 2015

Division

6

Top reasons given for why Bangladesh is on the right track. (Open-ended, Pre-coded)

73%

72% 59%

35% 28%

31% 21% 8%

18%

18%

8%

8%

1% Nov 2013 (n=842)

Jan 2014 (n=884)

More Development Better Economy Improving Security

9%

1%

3%

Sept 2014 (n=1,430)

June 2015 (n=1,578)

Improved Education Improving Law and Order 7

Top reasons given for why Bangladesh is on the wrong track. (Open-ended, Pre-coded)

86%

63%

58%

32% 22%

24% 17% 8% 5%

7% 6%

Nov 2013 (n=1,587)

Jan 2014 (n=1,512)

Political Instability Price Hikes Lack of Development

2%

20%

5%

Sept 2014 (n=1,002)

4% June 2015 (n=904)

Frequent Strikes Poor Economy Lack of Law and Order

8

For each of the following issues, how would you rate the national government’s performance? Improving Education

73%

22%

5%

Healthcare

73%

22%

5%

Water and Sanitation

73%

22%

5%

Infrastructure Development

72%

Water Availability

72%

Gender Equality

66%

Keeping the Peace

61%

Inflation

59%

Employment

58%

Poverty Reduction

58%

Good

Bad

23%

24% 23% 31% 39% 40% 37%

Don't Know/No Response

6%

4% 12% 8% 2% 3% 6%

9

For each of the following issues, how would you rate the national government’s performance? (continued) Electricity Availability

58%

Dealing with Hartals

58%

Housing

56%

Democratic Reforms

54%

Fighting Crime

54%

Ending Sectarian Conflict

52%

Land Rights

52%

Fighting Corruption

48%

Ending Ethnic Conflict

48%

Good

Bad

39%

3%

33%

9%

27%

16%

30%

16%

43%

3%

30%

18%

28%

20%

47%

25%


5%

27%

10

Sharp Divide Remains


Thinking now about elections, when would you like to see the next national elections occur? 45% 43% 40%

40%

4% 2% The parliament should complete its current term

2%

Within the next four years

1%

2%

Within the next three years Sept 2014

1%

5%

1%

Within the next two years

Within the next As soon as possible year

June 2015 12

Dominant Concern Over Corruption


What do you think is the most important problem facing Bangladesh? (Open-ended) June 2015

Corruption

24%

Political Instability

16%

Security/Law and Order

15%

Unemployment

7%

Bad Infrastructure

6%

Power/Electricity/Gas

6%

Education

A similar question asked in the Nov 2013, Jan 2014 and Sept 2014 surveys as “What are the top three issues in Bangladesh? (Open-ended)” yielded the following results:

Nov 2013

Jan 2014

Sept 2014

Corruption

20%

36%

20%

3%

Infrastructure

3%

1%

17%

Disaster Relief

3%

Political Instability

34%

39%

13%

Poverty Reduction

2%

Political Reform

2%

Economy

23%

7%

13%

Price Inflation

2%

Crime

11%

11%

9%

Food Security

2%

Health Care

1%

Water Supply/Sanitation

1%

Religious Extremism

1% 14

Have you ever paid a bribe or given a gift to a government employee or official in order to obtain government services? Don’t Know/No Response 1% Yes 11%

No 88%

15

Have you ever paid a bribe or given a gift… (Of those responding yes in previous question, n=272)

For Health Services in a Public Clinic or Hospital

16%

To Obtain Justice To Pass Exams For Job Consideration For a License/Permit/Service Yes

No

82%

33%

7%

2%

66%

91%

25%

1%

2%

73%

29%

69%

2%

2%


16

How much have you had to pay? (Of those responding that they have paid a bribe, n=272)

More Than 5,000 taka

53%

1,001-5,000 taka

19%

501-1,000 taka

10%

101-500 taka

10-100 taka

14%

4%

17

Elections and Campaign Finance


Do you know how to submit an official election complaint?

June 2015

9%

91%

Sept 2014

7%

93%

Yes

No

If yes, how did you learn about the process to submit an official complaint? Sept 2014 n=181 June 2015 n=223 Election Commission Official Local Law Enforcement Local Judiciary Civil Society Organization Local Government Bodies Returning/Deputy Officer Political Party Media Don't Know/No Response

24% 17%

5%

8% 7% 7%

10%

23%

28%

Sept 2014 June 2015

2% 19

Where do you believe candidates for elections receive most of the money for their campaigns?

50%

Candidate's Own Money

Political Parties Supporters

20%

27%

4% 3%

Local Businesses/Organizations

2% 1%

Shakedowns/Intimidation

2% 1%

Government Party

1%

Corruption

1%


60%

Sept 2014 June 2015

14% 15%

20

Have you ever personally witnessed incumbent candidates using government offices or vehicles during their campaigns?

June 2015

7%

85%

Sept 2014 3%

89%

Yes

No

8%

8%


21

Have you ever been asked to contribute money or free services* to a candidate or political party for an election campaign?

2%

2%

June 2015: Money

96%

2% 19%

June 2015: Free Services

Sept 2014 4%

Yes

79%

92%

No

4%


*In September 2014, the question was phrased to include money and free services. In June 2015, money and free services were separated into two questions. 22

Does it bother you if a candidate spends more money on his/her campaign than is allowed by the law?

June 2015

45%

Sept 2014

37%

Yes, a Lot

A Little

21%

26%

Not at All

27%

29%

7%

8%


23

Does it bother you if a candidate spends his/her personal money on campaign expenses?

June 2015

Sept 2014

55%

28%

Yes, a Lot

27%

25%

A Little

Not at All

5%

40%

13%

7%


24

Agree or Disagree? Information on a candidate’s assets and his/her campaign expenses should be public knowledge.

June 2015

63%

16%

6% 6%

9%

1% Sept 2014

74%

20%

3% 2%

Strongly Agree

Somewhat Agree

Somewhat Disagree

Strongly Disagree


25

Do you believe the election commission is capable of tracking and regulating money spent on campaigns?

June 2015

34%

Sept 2014

38%

53%

Yes

No

28%

33%

15%


26

Thinking about the election law, as far as you know, is it illegal for candidates to provide food and small gifts to voters during the campaigns?

June 2015

78%

Sept 2014

79%

Yes

No

16%

16%

6%

4%


27

Thinking some more about the election law, as far as you know, are candidates required to submit to the returning officer a list of what they spent money on during the campaigns?

June 2015

Sept 2014

Yes, it is required

43%

7%

63%

No, it is not required

50%

10%

27%


28

Would you support a law that bans general strikes, blockades and other forms of violent protest?

June 2015

Sept 2014

53%

59%

Jan 2014

18%

70%

Nov 2013

Strongly Support

24%

11%

4%

8%

11%

4%

27%

84%

Somewhat Support

9%

Somewhat Oppose

3%

15%

Strongly Oppose

1%


*In November 2013 and January 2014, intensity (“strongly” versus “somewhat”) was not included in the question phrasing. 29

Where do you get information related to candidates and political parties? Family Members

37%

Media

23%

Political Party/Candidate Platforms

20%

Village/Community Leaders

12%

Civil Society Organizations

6%

Religious Group/Religious Leaders

1%


1%

What or who influences your voting decision the most? Family Members

47%

Political Party/Candidate Platforms

15%

Media

12%

On my Own

10%

Village/Community Leaders

8%

Civil Society Organizations Don't Know/No Response

5% 1% 30

Should a non-party, caretaker government be brought back before the next parliamentary elections?

June 2015

67%

Sept 2014

68%

Jan 2014

22%

25%

77%

Yes

No

11%

18%

8%

5%


31

Ratings and Outlooks


Overall, how would you rate the current economic conditions in Bangladesh?

June 2015

Sept 2014

28%

44%

22%

Very Good

47%

Somewhat Good

14%

19%

Somewhat Bad

12%

11%

Very Bad

33

Overall, how would you rate the current security conditions in Bangladesh?

June 2015

Sept 2014

29%

26%

Very Good

39%

41%

Somewhat Good

Somewhat Bad

14%

16%

17%

16%

Very Bad

34

Overall, how would you rate the political stability of Bangladesh?

June 2015

Sept 2014

22%

19%

Very Stable

42%

40%

Somewhat Stable

11%

22%

Somewhat Unstable

18%

16%

Very Unstable

35

Why do you think the political situation is unstable? (Of those responding unstable in previous question, Open-ended) n=742 Frequent Hartals

23%

Political Conflicts

10%

Corruption has Increased

7%

Security

7%

Election was Not Free and Fair

7%

Too Much Quarreling

4%

Violence has Increased

3%

Too Many Incidents of Forced Disappearance

2%

Both Parties Involved in Violent Politics

2%

36

Thinking some more about the political stability of Bangladesh, in the year ahead do you think that it will improve, worsen or stay the same?

June 2015

48%

Improve

Same

15%

Worsen

20%

17%


37

Thinking about the personal economic situation of you and your family, in the past year has it improved, worsened or stayed the same?

1% June 2015

61%

Sept 2014

19%

49%

21%

19%

29% 1%

Improved

Same

Worsened


38

Thinking some more about the personal economic situation of you and your family, in the coming year do you think it will improve, worsen or stay the same?

June 2015

63%

Sept 2014

60%

Improve

Same

13%

16%

Worsen

10%

14%

14%

10%


39

Do you and your family have enough income to afford basic commodities (rice, milk, eggs, fish, dhal*, etc.) in the market?

1% June 2015

86%

13%

1% Sept 2014

78%

Yes

No

21%


*Dhal is the Bengali term for lentils, a regional dietary staple. 40

Do you expect the price of basic commodities to be higher or lower six months from now?

June 2015

23%

55%

8% 5%

7%

2% 1% Sept 2014

24%

60%

9% 5% 1%

Much Higher

Slightly Higher

Same

Slightly Lower

Much Lower


41

Can you tell me which party best reflects each of the statements below? They Have Strong Leadership

They Have Many Young Leaders

23%

They Support Women

51% 26%

24%

They Are Trustworthy

49% 27%

47%

26% 27%

They Have Good Policies

46%

26% 28%

They Support Democratic Reform

27%

They Care About People Like Me

27%

Their Policies Help the Poor

23%

They Consistently Fight Corruption Awami League

54%

22% 24%

25% Bangladesh Nationalist Party

42%

31%

42%

31%

42%

35% 41% 34%

Neither/Don't Know/No Response 42

Can you tell me which party best reflects each of the statements below? Would do a better job… Improving Education

19%

On Infrastructure

53%

23% 24%

Improving Healthcare

23%

With Security

51% 26%

25%

26%

Strengthening the Nation

26%

44% 30% 43% 31% 42%

20%

Maintaining Political Stability

Awami League

47%

28%

On the Economy

Ending Ethnic Conflict

54%

27%

38% 25%

Bangladesh Nationalist Party

41% 34% Neither/Don't Know/No Response 43

Do you believe the Bangladesh Election Commission is completely fair and independent?

June 2015

Sept 2014

Jan 2014

33%

25%

38%

34%

10%

23%

14%

21%

14%

9%

Strongly Agree

Somewhat Agree

Strongly Disagree


33%

16%

11%

9%

9%

Somewhat Disagree

44

Women and Youth


Agree or Disagree? Women are equally represented in political decision-making positions in Bangladesh.

June 2015

Sept 2014

Strongly Agree

38%

43%

51%

Somewhat Agree

12%

29%

Somewhat Disagree

11%

7%

9%

Strongly Disagree

June 2015, by Gender

Men

Women

Strongly Agree

44%

33%

Somewhat Agree

37%

48%

Somewhat Disagree

11%

12%

Strongly Disagree

9%

6% 46

Agree or Disagree? Politicians listen to the needs and ideas of women.

Strongly Disagree 20%

Somewhat Disagree 29%

Strongly Agree 18%

Somewhat Agree 33%

June 2015, by Gender

Men

Women

Strongly Agree

18%

18%

Somewhat Agree

28%

38%

Somewhat Disagree

28%

29%

Strongly Disagree

26%

14% 47

If there are two candidates running for office and they are exactly the same aside from the fact that one is a man and one is a woman, which candidate would you prefer? June 2015

56%

Sept 2014

56%

Man

23%

21%

29%

Woman

15%

No Difference

By Gender

Sept 2014 Male Female

Prefer Man 79% 34%

Prefer Woman No Difference 7% 14% Male 51% 16% Female

June 2015 Prefer Man 69% 42%

Prefer Woman No Difference 10% 21% 37% 22% 48

Agree or Disagree? Politicians listen to the needs and ideas of young people.

June 2015

23%

Strongly Agree

33%

Somewhat Agree

26%

Somewhat Disagree

18%

Strongly Disagree

49

Agree or Disagree? Politicians listen to the needs and ideas of young people. (Cross-Tabulations, June 2015) Location Urban Rural Gender Male Female Age 18-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61+ Education Illiterate Literate/No Formal Schooling Class 1-4 Class 5-9 Junior High High School College Graduate

Strongly Disagree Somewhat Disagree Somewhat Agree 18% 23% 35% 18% 28% 33%

Strongly Agree 24% 22%

24% 12%

24% 29%

29% 38%

24% 22%

15% 19% 22% 17% 21%

27% 26% 25% 26% 25%

34% 32% 33% 34% 34%

24% 23% 20% 23% 20%

21%

20%

34%

25%

26% 15% 15% 17% 20% 22% 10%

28% 34% 26% 28% 27% 25% 28%

26% 32% 37% 32% 28% 25% 24%

20% 19% 22% 23% 25% 27% 38%

50

Perspectives on Democracy


In Bangladesh, if you could only have one or the other, which is more important to you: a democratic system of government or a prosperous economy?

59%

Democracy is Definitely More Important to Me

58%

9%

Democracy is Somewhat More Important to Me

7%

14%

Prosperity is Somewhat More Important to Me

20%

13%

Prosperity is Definitely More Important to Me


10%

5% 4%

June 2015

Sept 2014 52

Of the following statements, would you say you agree or disagree?

In a Democracy, the Economic System Runs Badly

Democracies Have Too Much Squabbling

15%

26%

Democracies Are Good at Maintaining Law and Order

Democracy May Have Problems, but It Is Still Better Than Other Forms of Government

Strongly Agree

Somewhat Agree

30%

Somewhat Disagree

26%

20%

42%

41%

53%

Strongly Disagree

17%

42%

9%

6% 9%

7%3%7%

28%

8% 4% 8%

Don't Know/No Response 53

Agree or Disagree? Voting gives me a chance to influence decision-making in the country.

1% June 2015

67%

21%

5% 5%

2% 2% Sept 2014

69%

25% 2%

Strongly Agree Somewhat Disagree Don't Know/No Response

Somewhat Agree Strongly Disagree

54

Would you say you like or dislike…? 42% 46%

Bangladesh Nationalist Party 12%

60%

Awami League

29% 11% 25%

Jatiya Party

60% 15% 25%

Jamaat E Islami

60% 15%

Like

Dislike

Don't Know/No Response 55

Media


From which type of media are you most likely to get your news?

2%

June 2015

81%

13%

1%

1%

2%

Television

Word of Mouth

Newspapers

Social Media

Radio

Online News Sites

57

Demographics Monthly Household Income

Education

Less Than 5,000 taka* 5,001-10,000 taka 10,001-15,000 taka 15,001-20,000 taka 20,001-25,000 taka 25,001-30,000 taka 30,001-35,000 taka 35,001 taka or Greater

Illiterate Literate/No Formal Schooling Class 1-4 Class 5-9 Secondary School Certificate/Dakhil Higher Secondary Certificate Bachelor of Arts/Bachelor of Science Graduate Degree

7% 40% 25% 14% 5% 3% 1% 3%

Division Dhaka Chittagong Rajshahi Khulna Rangpur Sylhet Barisal

32% 20% 13% 11% 11% 7% 6%

Religion 19% 7% 13% 37%

Muslim Hindu Buddhist

12% 8%

Male Female

3% 2%

Area

Age 18-30 years 31-40 years 41-50 years 51-60 years 61 Years and Older

89% 10% 1%

Gender

Urban Rural

50% 50%

26% 74%

41% 26% 16% 10% 7%

*At the time of survey fieldwork, one Bangladeshi taka was equivalent to $0.013 USD. 58

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