Oct 27, 2015 - 14 Countries of Danube region. 9 EU Countries. 5 Energy Community Contracting Parties. 2012 â 2020. Energy Policy Framework. Energy mix.
Sustainable energy in Danube Region Manjola Banja Fabio Monforti-Ferrario Katalin Bódis Marina Economidou Jean-François Dallemand Nicolae Scarlat Heinz Ossenbrink
JRC Annual Event on the Scientific Support to the Danube Strategy Ulm, Germany 27-28.10.2015
New JRC Report in publishing procedure 14 Countries of Danube region
9 EU Countries 5 Energy Community Contracting Parties 2012 – 2020
Energy Policy Framework Energy mix Energy efficiency Renewable energy Bioenergy GHG emissions & savings
Energy Policy Framework in Danube region
Directive 2009/28/EC all Danube countries
NREAPs Progress reports (every 2 year)
Directive 2006/32/EC 2010/30/EC 2010/31/EC
all Danube countries
Directive 2012/27/EC EU Danube countries
NEEAPs Annual reports
Main energy indicators in Danube region, 2012 Final Energy Consumption– 412 Mtoe Buildings the largest consumer – 42% Industry – 30% 25 % decrease 1990-2012 47% decrease in Industry sector Gross inland consumption – 652 Mtoe 54% - solid fuels and oil & oil products 25% decrease 1990 - 2012
Primary energy production – 332 Mtoe 63% from solid fuels and nuclear
Main energy indicators in Danube region, 2012 Energy dependence – 49.3%
Energy imports – 414 Mtoe >60% of gas imported from Russia
GHG emissions – 1983 Mt CO2eq 38% decrease 1990 - 2012 Energy GHG – 1557 Mt CO2 eq
Energy indicators in Danube region according to Directive 2009/28/EC Gross Final Energy Consumption 415 Mtoe in 2012
2012 Growth to 2020
54% - Heating/Cooling 24% - Electricity
415
14
22% - Transport Mtoe
429 Mtoe in 2020 0
100
200
300
49% - Heating/Cooling 26% - Electricity 25% - Transport
1/5 consumed/expected to be consumed in 4 EnC Countries
400
Energy indicators in Danube region according to Directive 2009/28/EC Renewable Energy Mix
53 Mtoe in 2012
51.5% - Heating/Cooling 40% - Electricity
2012
8.6% - Transport
Growth to 2020 53
EnC Countries – 9% (50% from UA)
27
Mtoe
80 Mtoe in 2020 0
20
40
60
46% - Heating/Cooling
41% - Electricity 13% - Transport EnC Countries – will double their contribution (two-third from UA)
80
Energy indicators in Danube region according to Directive 2009/28/EC Overall RES share 13% of GFEC in 2012
35.9%
34.2%
BG exceeded its 2020 target
24%
27%
25.3% 20.1%
19.6%
18.7% of GFEC in 2020
14.7%
14%
20%
14% 11%
Ranged from 11% in UA to 35.9% in ME BG
CZ
DE
HU
AT
RO
SI
SK
HR
RS
ME
UA
MD
Energy indicators in Danube region according to Directive 2009/28/EC GHG emission savings due to RES 258 Mt CO2 eq 5% from EnC countries Electricity – 65% Heating/Cooling – 32%
Transport – 3%
Intensity of savings higher in EU countries due to the
fast penetration of new RE technologies
Energy indicators in Danube region according to Directive 2009/28/EC Biomass the main source
... will remain the main source
56% of RES mix
8% 2%
2012
47% of RES mix
12%
18%
3% 1% 6%
2% 8%
14% 47%
Geothermal Marine Solar
2020
9% 56%
Hydropower
14%
Wind Biomass Heat pumps Biofuels
fast penetration of new RE technologies (wind, solar)
Bioenergy in Danube region 34.2 Mtoe in 2012 64% of RES mix 8.6% of GFEC 165 kg oe/capita
Bioheat– 75% Bioelectricity – 13% Biofuels – 12% AT – exceeded 2020 plan 8% from EnC countries 88.5% of which developed in UA and RS
Bioenergy in Danube region 47.4 Mtoe in 2020 60% of RES mix 11% of GFEC 234 kg oe/capita
Bioheat – 67% Bioelectricity – 13.5% Biofuels - 19.5% 16.2% from EnC countries 3/4 of which in UA
Biomass consumption in Danube region 30 Mtoe, in 2012
88% of bioenergy 56.3% of RES mix 7.2% of GFEC 145.4 kg oe/capita
Bioheat – 85.5% Bioelectricity – 14.5%
9% from EnC countries 88.5% from UA and RS
Biomass consumption in Danube region 38 Mtoe in 2020
80% of bioenergy 47.4 of RES mix 9% of GFEC 188 kg oe/capita
Bioheat – 83% Bioelectricity – 17% 18.4% from EnC countries > 2/3 from UA
Biomass subcategories in Danube region Solid biomass & Biogas in 2012 - 29.8 Mtoe
of which 87% was solid biomass 13%
0.6%
99.4% of biomass 87.4% of bioenergy
85.5% in Heating/Cooling 9% in EnC countries – totally for heat DE, AT, SI – exceeded 2020 plan
86.4%
solid biomass
biogas
bioliquids
Biomass subcategories in Danube region Solid biomass & Biogas in 2020 - 37.2 Mtoe of which 86.7% was solid biomass
2.3% 13.0%
97.7% of biomass
78.6% of bioenergy
83% in Heating/Cooling
18.8% from EnC countries
84.7%
(> 2/3 in UA) solid biomass
biogas
bioliquids
Domestic biomass supply in Danube region 32.5 Mtoe in 2012
of which 72% - Forestry 1/5 – Agriculture residues 5.6% from Waste
5% from EnC Countries of which 83% from UA
Enough biomass in Danube region in 2020 ? 46.5 Mtoe in 2020
of which 55% - Forestry 38%-Agriculture residues 7% from waste 7.6% from EnC Countries
Estimated high demand 67 Mtoe Estimated gap 20.6 Mtoe 2020 UA biomass supply is assumed equal to the supply in 2012 Biomass demand calculated based only on solid biomass and biogas for electricity and heat Cogeneration is not considered
Comparing Danube region with EU-28 equivalent to ….% of EU (the same indicator)
