Nov 23, 2015 - NorAM session will see the publication of US MArkit PMI and US ... 08:00 France Markit Mfg Flash PMI for
FX Research
Monday, 23 November 2015
Good morning 23rd November 15 SFC Spot Desk Dollar was higher overnight ,boosted by a rumour of closed FED policy meeting to be held later in the afternoon.
SFC Spot Desk Tel: +44 20 7412 0000
European session will be busy with heavy load of EZ business sentiment data due for release.NorAM session will see the publication of US MArkit PMI and US existing home sales.
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Upcoming data & events 08:00 France Markit Mfg Flash PMI for Nov: Expected 50.80 Prior 50.70 08:00 France Markit Serv Flash PMI for Nov: Expected 52.60 Prior 52.30 08:00 France Markit Comp Flash PMI for Nov: Prior 52.30 08:30 Germany Markit Mfg Flash PMI for Nov: Expected 52.00 Prior 51.60 08:30 Germany Markit Service Flash PMI for Nov: Expected 54.30 Prior 55.20 08:30 Germany Markit Comp Flash PMI for Nov: Prior 54.50 09:00 Euro zone Markit Mfg Flash PMI for Nov: Expected 52.30 Prior 52.00 09:00 Euro zone Markit Serv Flash PMI for Nov: Expected 54.10 Prior 54.20 09:00 Euro zone Markit Comp Flash PMI for Nov: Expected 53.90 Prior 54.00 Currency summaries EURUSD ( 1.0615)-falls to fresh lows on rumour of closed FED policy meeting. -Flows:bids 1.0600/0580.More ahead of 1.0550.Stops below.Offers 1.0680/700.More 1.0750/60.Stops above -S/T tech :Negative below 1.0680/760 with rallies still seen as an opportunity to sell.Short @ 1.0750. Book profits around 1.06 or stick to shorts with stops trailed down to 1.0690/700 targeting 1.0580/50. -M/T tech :Negative below 1.1080 with rallies seen as an opportunity to sell for a test of 1.06 initially and 1.0450 should the decline extend .Projected targets for short positions @ 1.0720/0600 have been met.Book profits or stick to shorts with stops trailed down to 1.09,targeting 1.0550/30 initially and 1.0450 should the decline extend. -Levels to watch: 1.0600/550 on the downside ;1.0720/50 on the upside -Projected range: 1.0580-1.0670 USDJPY ( 123.20)- Back above 123.Approaching resistance @ 123.30 -Flows:bids 122.50/40.Stops below .Offers ahead 123.30/50.Stops above -S/T tech :No change in last 24 hrs .The overall outlook remains positive and while above 122.40 retest of 123.30/50 should be expected.No position at present.Missed longs by 20p. -M/T tech :Sustained break above 122.10 ( confirmed by a daily & weekly close above)turns m/t picture bullish opening 123.40/124.20 as next targets.Pullbacks seen as an opportunity to reinstate longs.New strategy to follow. -Projected range: 122.80-123.50 EURJPY ( 130.85)- Support @ 130.50 in focus -Flows:bids 130.50/00.Stops below.Offers 131.50/00.More ahead 132.50.Stops above. -S/T tech :Negative below 131.40/132.40 with scope for further limited losses ahead.More choppy consolidation with mild downside bias to be expected. -M/T tech : Negative below 135.50 -Levels to watch:130.50 on the downside;131.50/132.50 on the upside -Projected range: 130-131.50 GBPJPY ( 186.50)-Support @ 186 in focus -Flows:bids 186.00/185.60.Stops below.Offers 187.50/188.00.Stops above. -S/T tech :Turns mildly bearish.Negative below 187.50/188.50 with scope for limited losses into 186/185.70.No position at present -M/T tech : Positive above 182.15.Risk of pullback into 185/184.70 before buying resumes.Projected targets for long positions have almost been met.New strategy to follow -Levels to watch:186.00 on the downside;187.50 on the upside -Projected range: 186-187.50 GBPUSD ( 1,5155)- Support @ 1.5150/40 in focus -Flows:bids 1.5150/40.More 1.5100/5090.Stops below.Offers 1.5230/50.Stops above. -S/T tech :Mixed.Approaching support @ 1.5150/40 acting as the last line of defence for intraday bulls.Missed shorts off 1,5350 by few pips.No position at present ,watching reaction around 1,5140 for clues.
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-M/T tech :Negative below 1.5500 .Sustained break below 1.51 opens 1.4950/4850 as next targets.Allow for a period of sideways activity in 1.50-1.5350 before next attempt lower.Missed shorts off 1.5350 by few pips. -Levels to watch:1.5140/5090 on the downside ,1.5215 on the upside. -Projected range: 1.51-5220 EURGBP(0.7010)-Sideways -Flows:bids 0.6980/50.Stops below.Offers 0.7020/50.More ahead of 0.71.Stops above -S/T tech :No change in last 24 hrs.Negative below 0.7040/7100 with scope for limited losses ahead.Given o/s intraday readings and proximity of strong support in 0.6980/40 area allow for more sideways activity in 0.6980-0.7050 area before next attempt lower. -M/T tech :Negative below 0.7350 with scope for retest of support @ 0.6950/30 .Rallies seen as an opportunity to reinstate shorts -Projected range: 0.6950-0.7040 USDCHF ( 1.02)-Resistance @ 1.0220 in focus. -Flows:bids 1.0150/30.More ahead of 1.01/0050.Stops below.Offers 1.02/1.0220.Stops above. -S/T tech: No change in last 24 hrs.Positive above 1.0130/1.0050 with scope for limited gains ahead.Projected targets for long positions off 1,005 have been met and exceeded.Reconsider booking profits on upticks.Longs off 1.005 closed @ 1,0180 and 1,02 .No position at present. -M/T tech : Positive above 0.9705.Sustained break above 0.9840 opens 1,0130/1.0220 as next targets( met) Reconsider booking profits. -Levels to watch 1.0130/1.0050 the downside ,1.0200/0220 on the upside. -Projected range: 1.01-1.0220 AUDUSD ( 0.7180)-Corrects lower -Flows:bids 0.7150/40.More ahead of 0.7110/00.Stops below.Offers 0.7220/50.Stops above. -S/T tech:Mixed.Retracement of 0.7020-7240 rally underway.The overall outlook remains positive above 0.7110/00 with pullbacks seen as an opportunity to reinstate longs.Inverted H&S pattern in play. -M/T tech :Positive above m/t support @ 0.70.While above rebound into high 0.71's/mid 0.72's should be expected.Inverted H&S pattern with measured target @ 0.7250 in play( almost met) -Levels to watch 0.7110/00 on the downside ,0.7240 on the upside. -Projected range: 0.7140-7220 EURAUD( 1.4790)-Bounces off Fibo support @ 1.4695 -S/T tech :Negative below 1.4810/4930 with signs of base around 1.47.Decisive bounce off Fibo support @ 1.4695 warns from chasing rate at current depressed levels and points to a possible exhaustion on the downside.All projected targets for short positions have been met and exceeded.Reconsider booking profits on dips.New strategy to follow -M/T tech : Turns bearish on daily & weekly close below 1.5350.Projected targets for shorts have been met.Reconsider booking profits or trail stops down to 1,5170 ,targeting 1.4885/4800 initially and 1.4720 should the decline extend.( met) -Levels to watch:1.4700 on the downside;1.4920 on the upside -Projected range: 1.47-1.49 NZDUSD ( 0.6520)- Corrects lower. -Flows:bids 0.6500.Stops below.More bids 0.6460/50.Stops below.Offers 0.6580/6600.Stops above. -S/T tech: :Mixed.Retracement of 0.6420-6580 rally uderway.The overall outlook is positive above 0.6450 and while it stays intact retest of 0.6550/80 should be expected .Pullbacks should be seen as an opportunity to reinstate longs. -M/T tech : Conflicting signals.Daily close below 0.6460 turns our m/t model bearish with scope for more losses ahead .On the other hand decisive bounce off 0.6420 should be seen as the sign of bear exhaustion and attempts of base build.New strategy to follow. -Levels to watch 0.6450/20 on the downside ,0.60 on the upside. -Projected range: 0.6450-0.6550 EURCHF( 1.0825)-Sideways in broad 1.0760-1.0920 range -Flows:bids 1.08/780.More ahead of 1.0760.Stops below .Offers 1.0880/09.Stops above. -S/T tech: :Respect 1.0760-1.09 range for now.Involve only on the extremes.No position at present. -M/T tech : Positive above 1,0680.100 day SMA providing the floor.Feels toppish. -Levels to watch 1.0760 on the downside, 1.09 on the upside. -Projected range: 1.08-1.09 DOLLAR INDEX-DXY( 99.75)-Another attempt on key technical and psychological resistance -S/T tech: :Positive above 98.80 with scope for further limited gains ahead.Longs are well in the money .Book profit on upticks or trail stops up to 98.60,targeting levels above 100. -M/T tech : Turns positive on daily close above 96.40.Projected targets for long positions have been met.Reconsider booking profits around 100 or trail stops up to 98.50 -Levels to watch 98.80 on the downside;99.80/100 on the upside -Projected range: 98.70-99.95 USDCAD( 1.3380)- Climbs higher.Approaching multi month highs -Flows:bids 1.3320/00.More 1.3240/30.Stops below.Offers 1.34/3450.Stops above. -S/T tech :Positive above 1.3320/3240 with scope for limited gains ino 1.3450/60 ahead.Missed
fresh longs from 1,3230 by 10 pips .No position at present. -M/T tech : Turns bullish .Sustained break above 1,3320 opens 1.34/3460 as next targets.Pullbacks seen as an opportunity to reinstate longs. -Levels to watch:1.3320 on the downside;1.34/3460 on the upside -Projected range: 1.3320-1.3450 EURSEK (9.26)-Support @ 9.28 erased. -Flows:bids 9.28.Stops below.Offers 9.32/34.Stops above. -S/T tech: Negative below 9.32/38 with rallies seen as an opportunity to reinstate shorts.Stick to shorts set on uptick to 9.40 with stops trailed down to 9.32 or book profits around current levels. -M/T tech : Negative below 9.56 with signs of base build around 9.20.Rallies should as an opportunity to reinstate m/t shorts. -Levels to watch:9.23 on the downside;9.32 on the upside -Projected range: 9.23-9.32 EURNOK (9.22)- Choppy consolidation in broad range -Flows:bids 9.18/17.More ahead of 9.15.Stops below.Offers 9.26/28.More ahead of 9.30/32.Stops above. -S/T tech :Mildly bearish within broad range.Support in 9.18/15 area in focus.Staying on the sidelines for now. -M/T tech : Positive above 9.17 but feels top heavy on the other hand.Due to wild gyrations around recent highs the outlook becomes less certain that it was few days ago.With H&S pattern being formed on l/t charts the risk are skewed to the downside.Standing aside -Levels to watch:9.18/17 the downside;9.26/32 on the upside -Projected range: 9.17-9.26 If we see anything interesting and worthwhile, we will keep you posted. Have a great day in the meantime and best of luck. For detailed strategies visit www.sfcmarkets.com. SFC Spot Desk
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