May 3, 2017 - Economic calendar will be data packed on both sides of the Atlantic on ... 0800 Germany Unemployment Total
FX Research
Wednesday, 03 May 2017
Good morning 03rd May 17 SFC Spot Desk Into Europe & NY Economic calendar will be data packed on both sides of the Atlantic on Wednesday.European session kicks off with release of Germany Unemployment at 0955GMT,followed by EZ Q1'17 GDP and EZ PPI at 1100GMT.UK Markit/CIPS PMI data will cross the wires at 1030GMT.NorAM session will see the publication of US Markit PMI,US ISM Non Mfg PMI and US ADP Employment Report for April. FOMC ends its two day meeting on Wednesday.Even though markets do not expect FED to hike rates today the event may inject volatility into the lull market. Upcoming data & events 0800 Germany Unemployment Chg SA for Apr: Expected -12,000; Prior -30,000 0800 Germany Unemployment Total NSA for Apr: Expected 2.577 mln; Prior 2.662 mln 0800 Germany Unemployment Rate SA for Apr: Expected 5.8 pct; Prior 5.8 pct 0800 Germany Unemployment Total SA for Apr: Prior 2.556 mln 0830 United Kingdom Markit/CIPS Cons PMI for Apr: Expected 52.0; Prior 52.2
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FX Technical Update EURUSD(1.0920)-Back and forth inside the triangle pattern........ -Flows:bids 1.0880/60-50.More ahead of 1.0820/00 & 1.0770/50.Stops below.Offers 1.0940/50.More ahead of 1.0980/1.1000.Stops above. -S/T tech:No change in last 24hrs.Retracement of 1.0580-1.0950 rally underway and close to completion.Expectations of deeper pullback twds 1.0800/0770 did not materialize and rate retains its bid tone.The overall outlook is positive above 1.0820/00 with signs of bull run fatigue ahead of congested resistance @ 1.0950/80-1.10.Shorts off 1.0920/40 closed @ 1.0895/0900.No position at present. -M/T tech:Positive above 1.0600/0580 with scope for the retest of 1.0935/50 initially(met)and 1.0980/1.1000 should the rally extend.As expected pullback into 1.0580/50 provided an opportunity to reload longs.Stay long with stops trailed up to 1.0840,targeting 10980/1.1000 or book profits on upticks to 1.0930/50. -Levels to watch:1.0850/0770-60 & 1.0700/0680 on the downside;1.0920/0950 on the upside. -Projected range: 1.0860-1.0980 USDJPY(112.05)-Waiting for FOMC .... -Flows:bids 111.80/60-50.More ahead of 111.00/110.80-70.Stops below.Offers 112.20/30.More ahead of 112.50/70. -S/T tech:No change in last 160hrs.Positive above 111.60/110.80 with scope for the retest of 111.80/112.00 initially(met) and 112.50/70 should the rally extend.Projected targets for longs off 109.60/50 have been met exceeded.Reconsider booking profits on upticks to 112.20/30 or stay long with stops trailed up to 111.40,targeting 112.50/70.Would like to see rate to top out ahead of 112.50/70. -M/T tech:Negative below 112.80/113.00 with signs of base build above 108.00.Recovery phase underway and approaching ultimate corrective targets.Watching price action for signs of an interim top ahead of 112.50/70.Rallies still seen as an opportunity to reload shorts. -Levels to watch:111.50/110.60 on the downside;112.20/112.50-70 on the upside. -Projected range:111.60-112.45 EURJPY(122.45)-Ticks higher... -Flows:bids 121.80/60-50.More ahead of 121.00/120.80.Stops below.Offers 122.50/60.More ahead of 122.80/123.00.Stops above. -S/T tech:No change in last 160hrs.Positive above 121.80/120.70 with scope for the retest of congested resistance @ 122.80/123.30.Intraday market is getting increasingly
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overbought.We'd rather not chase the market at present elevated levels and look for signs of an interim top ahead of 122.80/123.30.No position at present. -Levels to watch:121.80/120.80-50 on the downside;122.80/123.30 on the upside. -Projected range:121.80-122.90 GBPUSD(1.2905)-Capped below 1.2970/50 but buyers remain active on dips.... -Flows:bids 1.2880/70.More ahead of 1.2820/00.Stops below.Offers 1.2950/60.More ahead of 1.2980/1.3000.Stops above. -S/T tech:Positive above 1.2860/2820-2800 with scope for the limited gains ahead.Counter trend shorts off 1.2950/60 closed @ 1.2880.No position at present. -M/T tech:Positive above 1.2620/00 with scope for the retest of 1.2920/1.3000 initially(mostly met)and 1.3140/50 should the rally continue.Pullbacks likely to present an opportunity to reload longs. -Levels to watch:1.2860/2800 on the downside,1.2950/60 & 1.2980/1.30 on the upside. -Projected range:1.2860-1.2940 EURGBP(0.8450)-Back and forth in a tight range..... -Flows:bids 0.8420/00.More ahead of 0.8360/50.Stops below.Offers 0.8480/8500.More ahead of 0.8520/30.Stops above. -S/T tech:Mixed.Retracement of 0.8310-0.8530 rally underway and close to completion(need 1hr close above 0.8480 to consider retracement as completeted).The overall outlook remains positive above 0.8420/00 with signs of bull run exhaustion above 0.85 handle.Longs off 0.8420 closed @ 0.8480/70.No p;osition at present. -M/T tech:Negative below 0.8580/8620 with early signs of base build ahead of congested support @ 0.8320/0.8260.Look for more two way choppy action in 0.8320-0.8550/80 range for now.Watching price action for clues. -Levels to watch:0.8420/00 on the downside;0.8480/8500-30 on the upside. -Projected range:0.8420-8480 If we see anything interesting and worthwhile, we will keep you posted. Have a great day in the meantime and best of luck. For detailed strategies visit www.sfcmarkets.com. SFC Spot Desk
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