System-Level Risk Assessment of Carbon Sequestration into A Naturally Fractured Aquifer at Kevin Dome, Montana Minh Nguyen, Tsubasa Onishi, Philip Stauffer, Bill Carey, Ye Zhang Overview
Potential CO2/Brine Leakage through Wellbore and Fault Pathways Injection Reservoir Simulation: Settings (Onishi et al., 2018)
8.00E+05
Sector
6.00E+05
4.00E+05 2.00E+05
0.00E+00 1/1/2019
5/19/2046
0
10
20
0.002
30
0.001
40
50
60
Time (Year)
0 0
10
20
0.0012 0.001 0.0008 0.0006 70
80
90
0.0004 30 0.0002
40
50
0
10
0.006 0.005 100 0.004
60 0.003 70
Time (Year)
0
0.00012
0.007
20
80
0.002 30 0.001
40
90
50
0.0001
Base
0.00008 100 0.00006
60 0.00004
70
80
90
100
0
10
20 0.00002 30
40
50
60
70
80
90
40
20
30
40
50
70
80
90
Injection Period
Entire Period
Kf_Range KvKh K_ConfRock Km
KrCO2f_End KrCO2m_End Pcf Pcm
Sigma Salinity Hysteresis
2. LHS
1. Identify Sensitive Parameters
ROM#1
5. NRAP-IAM
LA-UR-18-23961
ROM#2
4. RROM-Gen
ROM#3
3. Reservoir Simulation
Relative Permeability (-)
x10-3 (kg/s)
10 5 00
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 Time (year)
8 6
4 3
2
0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
2
1 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 Time (year)
Application: Sensitivity of Cements Quality CO2 Leakage Rate to Atmosphere (%)
Parameter
15
Brine leakage to groundwater aquifer
Time (year)
Kf
CO2 leak rate to groundwater aquifer
0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 Time (year)
4
0.2
0.15
• Acceptable CO2 Leakage rates to atmosphere: 0.01 –1.0 percent (Kutz and Elkamel, 2010)
0.1
CO2/Brine leakage through non-sealing pathways is sensitive to permeability, length of the faults, and fault displacement
Conclusions permeability, relative permeability, capillary pressure and hysteresis • CO2 and brine leakage through fault pathways is sensitive to fracture (e) Comparison of total CO2 leakage (f) Comparison of total brine leakage permeability, length of the faults, and fault displacement. • The maximum total mass of CO2 injected into the middle Duperow is predicted to be 1.2 MT (lower than the estimate by Dai et al., 2014). • Carbon Sequestration in the Kevin Dome has little risk of CO2 leakage to the atmosphere unless the quality of the legacy wells is extremely poor.
Reference • Kutz, M., & Elkamel, A. (Eds.). (2010). Environmentally Conscious Fossil Energy
Production (Vol. 11). John Wiley & Sons. • Dai, Z., Stauffer, P. H., Carey, J. W., Middleton, R. S., Lu, Z., Jacobs, J. F., ... & Spangler, L. H. (2014). Pre-site characterization risk analysis for commercial-scale carbon sequestration. Environmental science & technology, 48(7), 3908-3915. • Nguyen, M., Onishi, T., Carey, J. W., Will, B., Zaluski, W., ... & Stauffer, P. H. (2017). Risk Assessment of Carbon Sequestration into A Naturally Fractured Reservoir at Kevin Dome, Montana (LA-UR-17-31501). Los Alamos National Lab.(LANL) • Onishi, T., Nguyen, M.C., Carey, J.W., Will, B., Zaluski, W., Bowen, D., Devault, B., Duguid, A., Zhou, Q., Fairweather, S., Spangler, L., and Stauffer, P.H. (2018) Potential CO2 and Brine Leakage through Wellbore Pathways for Geologic CO2 Sequestration Using the National Risk Assessment Partnership Tools: Application to the Big Sky Regional Partnership, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control
Acknowledgement
• CO2 Leakage %Τyear =
0.05 0 0
(d) Dissolved CO2 fraction and leakage nodes/pipes for high fracture permeability
Map view of CO2 plume and fault leakage consisting of leakage pipes with low and high fracture permeabilities at the end of 104 years.
• Major uncertainty parameters to leakage through wellbore are:
Brine leakage to intermediate aquifer
100
(c) Dissolved CO2 fraction and leakage nodes/pipes for low fracture permeability
20
Time (Year)
National Risk Assessment Partnership – Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-IAM)
(b) Supercritical CO2 saturation and leakage nodes/pipes for high fracture permeability
Line: Pcf Dash: Pcm
Brine Saturation (-)
CO2 leak rate to intermediate aquifer
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 Time (year)
100
60
100
10 8 6 4 2
Time (Year) 10
80
Time (Year)
0 0
60
CO2 leak rate to atmosphere
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 00
(a) Supercritical CO2 saturation and leakage nodes/pipes for low fracture permeability
Line: Drainage Dash: Imbibition
Capillary Pressure (bar)
20
Time (Year)
0
P90
0.2
Sensitivity - CO2 leakage (mean) - Brine leakage (mean)
0.008
P50
NRAP-IAM: Fault Leakage and Sensitivity Analysis (Nguyen et al., 2017)
Brine Saturation (-)
x10-3 (kg/s)
0.00000
0.0014
P10
NRAP-IAM: Wellbore Leakage Results x10-5 (kg/s)
0.00005
0.003
CO2 Leaakge to Atmosphere (kg/s)
0.00010
0.009
2/20/2101
0.4
0
RROM-Gen
0.0016
10/4/2073
Date [MM/DD/YEAR]
0.6
0.0018
0.004
CO2 Leakage Rate to Intermediate Aquifer (kg/s)
0.00015
5/19/2046
0.8
0.006
0.005
2/20/2101
1.0
NRAP-IAM CO2 Leakage Rate to Groundwater (kg/s)
0.00020
Brine Leakage Rate to Intermediate Aquifer (kg/s)
Brine Leakage Rate to Groundwater (kg/s)
0.00025
5.0
0.0 1/1/2019
1.2
0.00035 0.00030
10.0
1.4
Sensitivity Study using Injection Reservoir Simulation – Uncertainty Parameters (ECLIPSE Compositional)
CO2/Brine Leakages
15.0
Injection Reservoir Simulation: Results
Methodology
Reservoir Simulation
10/4/2073
Date [MM/DD/YEAR]
20.0
Dual Porosity Dual Permeability model Grid: Original 129 × 129 × 22 (#Active cell:366,102) Grid: Sector 69 × 69 × 22 (#Active cell:104,742) Size: 10,515 × 10,515 × 160 (m3) Pore volume multiplier at edges (Juanes et al., 2006) Isothermal 3 Phase (Aqueous, Gaseous, Solid) 3 components (H2O, CO2, NaCl) EOS: Modified Redlich-Kwong (Spycher and Pruess, 2005) • BHP < 18.5 (MPa) (Dai et al., 2014) • 104 years (4 years injection + 100 years post injection)
x10-4 (kg/s)
• (Semi) analytical solutions – limitations in field-scale application
Full
• • • • • • • • •
x10-4 (kg/s)
Conventional Solutions • Running large number of numerical simulations for a full system – computationally expensive
1.00E+06
Bottom Hole Pressure [MPa]
Risk Assessment Problems • Reservoir Uncertainties • CO2/Brine Leakages
1.20E+06
Total CO2 Injected (MT)
• Part of Big Sky Carbon Sequestration Partnership • Dolomite/Limestone • Fractured saline aquifer • Limited data • Intent to inject 1 million tons (MT) of CO2
CO2 Injection Rate [kg/day]
Site Description
10
20
30
Time (year)
40
50
Corresponding author email:
[email protected]
