System-Level Risk Assessment of Carbon ...

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Pore volume multiplier at edges (Juanes et al., 2006). • Isothermal. • 3 Phase (Aqueous, Gaseous, Solid). • 3 components (H2O, CO2, NaCl). • EOS: Modified ...
System-Level Risk Assessment of Carbon Sequestration into A Naturally Fractured Aquifer at Kevin Dome, Montana Minh Nguyen, Tsubasa Onishi, Philip Stauffer, Bill Carey, Ye Zhang Overview

Potential CO2/Brine Leakage through Wellbore and Fault Pathways Injection Reservoir Simulation: Settings (Onishi et al., 2018)

8.00E+05

Sector

6.00E+05

4.00E+05 2.00E+05

0.00E+00 1/1/2019

5/19/2046

0

10

20

0.002

30

0.001

40

50

60

Time (Year)

0 0

10

20

0.0012 0.001 0.0008 0.0006 70

80

90

0.0004 30 0.0002

40

50

0

10

0.006 0.005 100 0.004

60 0.003 70

Time (Year)

0

0.00012

0.007

20

80

0.002 30 0.001

40

90

50

0.0001

Base

0.00008 100 0.00006

60 0.00004

70

80

90

100

0

10

20 0.00002 30

40

50

60

70

80

90

40

20

30

40

50

70

80

90

Injection Period

Entire Period

Kf_Range KvKh K_ConfRock Km

KrCO2f_End KrCO2m_End Pcf Pcm

Sigma Salinity Hysteresis

2. LHS

1. Identify Sensitive Parameters

ROM#1

5. NRAP-IAM

LA-UR-18-23961

ROM#2

4. RROM-Gen

ROM#3

3. Reservoir Simulation

Relative Permeability (-)

x10-3 (kg/s)

10 5 00

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 Time (year)

8 6

4 3

2

0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110

2

1 0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 Time (year)

Application: Sensitivity of Cements Quality CO2 Leakage Rate to Atmosphere (%)

Parameter

15

Brine leakage to groundwater aquifer

Time (year)

Kf

CO2 leak rate to groundwater aquifer

0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 Time (year)

4

0.2

0.15

• Acceptable CO2 Leakage rates to atmosphere: 0.01 –1.0 percent (Kutz and Elkamel, 2010)

0.1

CO2/Brine leakage through non-sealing pathways is sensitive to permeability, length of the faults, and fault displacement

Conclusions permeability, relative permeability, capillary pressure and hysteresis • CO2 and brine leakage through fault pathways is sensitive to fracture (e) Comparison of total CO2 leakage (f) Comparison of total brine leakage permeability, length of the faults, and fault displacement. • The maximum total mass of CO2 injected into the middle Duperow is predicted to be 1.2 MT (lower than the estimate by Dai et al., 2014). • Carbon Sequestration in the Kevin Dome has little risk of CO2 leakage to the atmosphere unless the quality of the legacy wells is extremely poor.

Reference • Kutz, M., & Elkamel, A. (Eds.). (2010). Environmentally Conscious Fossil Energy

Production (Vol. 11). John Wiley & Sons. • Dai, Z., Stauffer, P. H., Carey, J. W., Middleton, R. S., Lu, Z., Jacobs, J. F., ... & Spangler, L. H. (2014). Pre-site characterization risk analysis for commercial-scale carbon sequestration. Environmental science & technology, 48(7), 3908-3915. • Nguyen, M., Onishi, T., Carey, J. W., Will, B., Zaluski, W., ... & Stauffer, P. H. (2017). Risk Assessment of Carbon Sequestration into A Naturally Fractured Reservoir at Kevin Dome, Montana (LA-UR-17-31501). Los Alamos National Lab.(LANL) • Onishi, T., Nguyen, M.C., Carey, J.W., Will, B., Zaluski, W., Bowen, D., Devault, B., Duguid, A., Zhou, Q., Fairweather, S., Spangler, L., and Stauffer, P.H. (2018) Potential CO2 and Brine Leakage through Wellbore Pathways for Geologic CO2 Sequestration Using the National Risk Assessment Partnership Tools: Application to the Big Sky Regional Partnership, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control

Acknowledgement

• CO2 Leakage %Τyear =

0.05 0 0

(d) Dissolved CO2 fraction and leakage nodes/pipes for high fracture permeability

Map view of CO2 plume and fault leakage consisting of leakage pipes with low and high fracture permeabilities at the end of 104 years.

• Major uncertainty parameters to leakage through wellbore are:

Brine leakage to intermediate aquifer

100

(c) Dissolved CO2 fraction and leakage nodes/pipes for low fracture permeability

20

Time (Year)

National Risk Assessment Partnership – Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-IAM)

(b) Supercritical CO2 saturation and leakage nodes/pipes for high fracture permeability

Line: Pcf Dash: Pcm

Brine Saturation (-)

CO2 leak rate to intermediate aquifer

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 Time (year)

100

60

100

10 8 6 4 2

Time (Year) 10

80

Time (Year)

0 0

60

CO2 leak rate to atmosphere

14 12 10 8 6 4 2 00

(a) Supercritical CO2 saturation and leakage nodes/pipes for low fracture permeability

Line: Drainage Dash: Imbibition

Capillary Pressure (bar)

20

Time (Year)

0

P90

0.2

Sensitivity - CO2 leakage (mean) - Brine leakage (mean)

0.008

P50

NRAP-IAM: Fault Leakage and Sensitivity Analysis (Nguyen et al., 2017)

Brine Saturation (-)

x10-3 (kg/s)

0.00000

0.0014

P10

NRAP-IAM: Wellbore Leakage Results x10-5 (kg/s)

0.00005

0.003

CO2 Leaakge to Atmosphere (kg/s)

0.00010

0.009

2/20/2101

0.4

0

RROM-Gen

0.0016

10/4/2073

Date [MM/DD/YEAR]

0.6

0.0018

0.004

CO2 Leakage Rate to Intermediate Aquifer (kg/s)

0.00015

5/19/2046

0.8

0.006

0.005

2/20/2101

1.0

NRAP-IAM CO2 Leakage Rate to Groundwater (kg/s)

0.00020

Brine Leakage Rate to Intermediate Aquifer (kg/s)

Brine Leakage Rate to Groundwater (kg/s)

0.00025

5.0

0.0 1/1/2019

1.2

0.00035 0.00030

10.0

1.4

Sensitivity Study using Injection Reservoir Simulation – Uncertainty Parameters (ECLIPSE Compositional)

CO2/Brine Leakages

15.0

Injection Reservoir Simulation: Results

Methodology

Reservoir Simulation

10/4/2073

Date [MM/DD/YEAR]

20.0

Dual Porosity Dual Permeability model Grid: Original 129 × 129 × 22 (#Active cell:366,102) Grid: Sector 69 × 69 × 22 (#Active cell:104,742) Size: 10,515 × 10,515 × 160 (m3) Pore volume multiplier at edges (Juanes et al., 2006) Isothermal 3 Phase (Aqueous, Gaseous, Solid) 3 components (H2O, CO2, NaCl) EOS: Modified Redlich-Kwong (Spycher and Pruess, 2005) • BHP < 18.5 (MPa) (Dai et al., 2014) • 104 years (4 years injection + 100 years post injection)

x10-4 (kg/s)

• (Semi) analytical solutions – limitations in field-scale application

Full

• • • • • • • • •

x10-4 (kg/s)

Conventional Solutions • Running large number of numerical simulations for a full system – computationally expensive

1.00E+06

Bottom Hole Pressure [MPa]

Risk Assessment Problems • Reservoir Uncertainties • CO2/Brine Leakages

1.20E+06

Total CO2 Injected (MT)

• Part of Big Sky Carbon Sequestration Partnership • Dolomite/Limestone • Fractured saline aquifer • Limited data • Intent to inject 1 million tons (MT) of CO2

CO2 Injection Rate [kg/day]

Site Description

10

20

30

Time (year)

40

50

Corresponding author email: [email protected]