SYSTEMS

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Jun 20, 1974 - which is itself only about 30% of the cost of producing electricity with ...... 130. Carnow, B. W., et al., "Air Pollution and Pulmonary Cancer," Arch.
(NASA-CR-146344) E V A I U A T I O N OF CONVEHTIONEL POWE: SYSTEMS ( C a l i f o r n i a Univ.) 194 F HC 5’. 5G CSCL f O E

N76- 18675

Unclas G3/44

-..

I

Subcontract d9540i 1

J E T

OROPULSION

C A L I F O R N I A

I N S T I T U T E

P A S A D E N A ,

LABORATORY OF

T E C H N O L O G Y

C A L I F O R N I A

10420

Kirk R. Smith, Postgraduate Researcher d o h k y a n t e Postgraduate Researcher

John P. Holdren, Assistant Prbfeswr ENERGY AND RESOURCES PBBGdw9 Roam 112, Building 1-S Universl t y o f Cat iforhia Berkeley, Cal i f o r n l a 9 7 2 0

July 1975

Foreword

The NASA O f f i c e o f Energy Programs i s p r e s e n t l y conducting a study of the p o t e n t i a l u t i l i t y of l a r g e o r b i t a l c e n t r a l power s t a t i o n s as a p o s s i b l e means t o help meet our c o u n t r y ' s demands f o r e l e c t r i c i t y .

As

p a r t o f t h i s study, JPL has been d i r e c t e d t o perform a survey of p o t e n t i a l t e r r e s t r i a l energy conversion systems f o r comparison w i t h o r b i t a l c e n t r a l power s t a t i o n s .

The candidate t e r r e s t r i a l o p t i o n s being reviewed include

conventional power p l a n t s and both s o l a r thermal and p h o t o v o l t a i c conversion. This r e p o r t presents an e v a l u a t i o n o f conventional power systems.

The work

was performed by personnel a t the U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a a t Berkeley under a subcontract t o JPL. The work was performed under the t e c h n i c a l d i r e c t i o n and guidance o f Mr.

Richard Caputo o f JPL.

The Cognizant NASA Program Manager

Simon Manson o f the Energy Technology A p p l i c a t i o n s D i v i s i o n .

IV

is

Mr.

Acknowledgements

The b u l k of t h i s work was performed by K. R. Smith and J. Weyant under t h e supervision o f J. P. Holdren, P r i n c i p a l I n v e s t i g a t o r .

The authors

a r e gra7eful for the time and information g i v e n to us d u r i n g our conversations w i t h persons a t t h e f o l l o w i n g o r g a n i z a t i o n s and agencies:

J e t Propulsion

Laboratory, Bechtel Corporation, Westinghouse Corporation, Erookhaven National Laboratory, General Atomic Corporation, National Science Foundation, Environmental P r o t e c t ion Agency, Energy Research and Development Agency, Natural Resources Defense Counci 1, Resources for t h e Future, National l n s t it u t e f o r Occupational Safety and Health, Council on Environmental Q u a l i t y , E l e c t r i c Power Research I n s t i t u t e , A.

D. L i t t l e Corporation, Oak Ridge (Hol i f i e l d )

National Laboratory, and National Aeronautics and Space A d m i n i s t r a t i o n

-

Lewis.

We appreciate the assistance o f Professor Melvyn Branch o f the Mechanical Engineering Department, U n i v e r s i t y o f C a l i f o r n i a ,

Berkeley.

T.

English of JPL was very h e l p f u l i n reviewing t h i s study and provided many cons t r u c t i v e suggestions.

I n a d d i t i o n , we a r e chankful f o r the patience and s k i l l

of our t y p i s t s ; Linda E l l i o t t , Linda Marczak, Debbie Tyber and Mari Wilson, and the JPL t y p i s t , Peggy Panda.

O f course, a l l e r r o r s a r e the authors' responsi-

bi I ity.

V

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page Chapter I

Chapter II

Chapter 1 1 1

-

-

-

INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

1

Selection o f Systems

2

Summary Comparisons

10

Costs and Resource U t i 1i z a t i o n

10

E w i ronmental and Health Impacts

16

TECHNICAL DESCRIPTIONS

21

Foss i 1 Systems

22

Nuclear Sys tems

30

Summary Tables

38

COSTS AND IMPACTS: DISCUSSION AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

40

Ill-A:

41

Costs and Resource U t i l i z a t i o n

Ill-A-1:

Introduction

41

I I I-A-2:

Harvesting Fuels

44

III - A - 3 :

Ilpgrading Fuels

50

I I I-A-4:

Transporting Fuels

53

Ill-A-5:

Conversion t o E l e c t r i c i t y

54

Ill-A-6:

Management o f F i n a l Waste

60

Ill-A-7:

Multiple Sensitivities

62

I I I -A-8:

Research and Deve 1opmen t Costs

65

vi

Page

111-8:

Environmental and H e a l t h Impacts

69

I II-B-1:

Harvesting of Fuels

69

I11-8-2:

Upgrading of Fuels

73

I1 1 - 8 3 :

T r a n s p o r t i n g of Fuels

76

I11-8-4:

Conversion t o E l e c t r i c i t y

78

111-8-5:

Management o f F i n a l Waste

85

I11-8-6:

Indices

88

111-8-7:

Global and Social E f f e c t s

92

Refe rences

96

Appendicies

B -

A

C

-

Coal w i t h Lime Scrubber Flue Gas D e s u l f u r i z a t i o n

113

Coal w i t h Fluidized-Bed Combustion

125

Coal w i t h Low-Btu G a s i f i c a t i o n and Combined-Cycle Combustion

132

E

- Residual Fuel O i l - Light-Water Reactor

F

-

D

140

150

Light-Water Reactor w i t h Plutonium Recycle

- L i q u i d Metal Fast Breeder Reactor H - High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor

C

vi i

162

170 180

Chapter I

INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY

This r e p o r t i s a review o f the t e c h n i c a l , economic, and environmental characteri s t i c s of (thermal, non-solar) e l e c t r i c - p o w e r p l a n t s t h a t are 1 i k e l y t o see widespread use i n the United States i n the remainder of t h i s century. from e x t r a c t i o n o f neM f u e l t o f i n a l waste management, i s included.

The f u e l c y c l e , We have

selected f o r p a r t i c u l a r l y thorough review e i g h t examples of the f o s s i I - f u e l and nuc 1 ear techno ogies most l i k e l y to be h e a v i l y r e l i e d upon.

The study has

employed e x i s t ng knowledge and l i t e r a t u r e and does n o t develop any : e w a n a l y t i c a t o o l s o r exper mental data.

The r e p o r t does n o t address several important issues

about e l e c t r i c energy production: various fuels; fuels;

i t does n o t estimate the resource base o f the

i t does not evaluate the c o s t s and impacts o f e x p l o r a t i o n f o r

i t does n o t evaluate the costs and impacts o f transmission o r f i n a l end

use o f the e l e c t r i c i t y ;

i t makes no attempt t o address the questions r e l a t e d to

the growth i n demand f o r e l e c t r i c i t y o r t r y t o p r e d i c t what t h a t growth w i l l o r should be;

i t makes

no attempt t o eva uate where a l t e r n a t i v e sources might be

s u b s t i tuteil f o r e l e c t r i c i t y ;

i t makes

i t t l e attempt t o evaluate the energy

systems being developed i n o t h e r p a r t s o f the world. The usefulness o f t h i s r e p o r t i s t h a t i t attempts t o place the e i g h t reference e l e c t r i c energy systems i n the same assessment framework.

The systems are evalu-

ated i n the same time p e r i o d , w i t h the same economic ground-rules, and w i t h the same categories o f environmental and h e a l t h impacts.

Most o f the c o s t s , resource

requirements, emissions and impacts f o r each system have been n o r m a l ' x d t o the e l e c t r i c a l output o f the system i n megawatt-years (Mwe-yr).

This app-oach should

provide useful information, not o n l y f o r comparing these e i g h t systems, but a l s o f o r assessing the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f other systems which might becone a v a i l a b l e

d u r i n g o r a t the end of t h i s p e r i o d .

1

Se 1ec t ion of Sys tems

Figures I-1-a,b,c

i u s t r a t e the f u e l cycles of most non-solar e l e c t r i c -

power sys tems o f present

n t e r e s t i n the technica

commun t y .

No judgment

is

implied, i n these f i g u r e s , about the technical o r economic f e a s i b i l i t y o f the systems shown, and i n f a c t , most o f the systems a r e u n l i k e l y to c o n t r i b u t e a very s i g n i f i c a n t p o r t i o n o f U. 5 . generation c a p a c i t y i n the p e r i o d before t h t year 2000.

Figures I-2-a,b,c

i l l u s t r a t e a smaller s e t o f systems--those we

b e l i e v e may a c t u a l l y become a v a i l a b l e i n t h i s time p e r i o d o r , as i n the case o f fusion, might become important i n the e a r l y p a r t of the next century. systems marked w i t h a s t e r i s k s i n Figures I-2-a,b,c

make up the s t i l i smaller

subset whose members might i n d i v i d u a l l y supply more than 5% o f U.S. production i n the year 2000. tion,

Those

electricity

(We t h i n k high-Btu c o a l g a s i f i c a t i o n , coal l i q u e f a c -

and imported l i q u e f i e d n a t u r a l gas (LNG) a r e 1 i k z l y t o be important

energy technologies i n t h i s time period, b u t root f o r e l e c t r i ' c i t y generation.)

E g h t o f these f i n a l systems ( a l l i n the present study.

b u t conservation) were examined i n d e t a i l

I n our view, unless there a r e s i g n i f i c a n t p o l i t i c a l changes,

unexpected technical o r resource breakthroughs, or major changes i n pub1 i c a t t i t u d e , these e i g h t systems a r e the non-solarelectricity-producing technologies most l i k e l y t o be o f s i g n i f i c a n c e i n the p e r i o d 1990-2000.

If t e r r e s t r i a l o r s a t e l l i t e solar

power systems should become a v a i l a b l e by the yedr 2000, u t i l i t i e s w i l l l i k e l y be choosing between these s o l a r systems and the e i g h t power systems i n our f i n a l group. Conservation can a l s o be considered a source o f e l e c t r i c power, because e l e c t r i c i t y saved i n one a p p l i c a t i o n becomes a v a i l a b l e f o r use i n others. b e l i e v e conservation w i 11 be the most important "n,

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considered.

because of the time and z t a f f limitations o f our project, however,

we have not provided a detailed analysis of conservation's economic and

mental effects

environ-

The most comprehensive such analysis in the l i t e r a t u r e to date

i s the report of the Energy Pol icy Project o f the Ford Foundation (

9

24)

-

Some Summary Comparisons

In t h i s section, several o f t h e most important costs and impacts o f e l e c t r i c power production a r e summarized i n a form t h a t f a c i l i t a t e s comparisons between the e i g h t a l t e r n a t i v e technologies.

Each system has inherent c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s

which made i t unique, and t r u l y meaningful comparisons r e q u i r e more i n f o r m a t i o n and synthesis than the graphs provide i n t h e f o l l o w i n g summary sections.

To a v o i d

misunderstanding o f the information presented i n these sections, t h e reader I s advised to read t h e r e s t of t h i s r e p o r t and to study the t a b l e s i n Appendices A-H.

Comparisons:

Costs and Resource U t i l i z a t i o n

Extensive cost and resource u t i l i z a t i o n data were c o l l e c t e d f o r t h e e i g h t electric-power generation systems for t h i s study.

The raw data normalized to

one megawatt-year o f c l e c t r i c a l output a t t h e power p l a n t a r e included i n t h e

In S e c t i o n - l l l - A these data a r e summarized aqd the s e n s i t i v i t y o f

Appendices.

e l e c t r i c generation costs t o v a r i a t i o n s i n some of t h e base-case parameters a r e explored.

A more concise summary f o l l o w s here.

The cost o f e l e c t r i c generation i s conventionally broken down i n t o i t s c a p i t a l , f u e l , and operation and maintenance components.

Although i n the present study the

conventional d e f i n i t i o n s of these cost components a r e not s t r i c t l y adhered t o i n c a l c u l a t i n g e l e c t r i c generation costs, we can a p p r o p r i a t e l y use them t o summarize some o f the cost data t h a t were c o l l e c t e d (see footnotes i n Table A-1).

I n t h i s study the

base-case referes t o technological and economic c o n d i t i o n s t h a t a r e expected t o e x i s t i n the electric-power i n d u s t r y i n about 1990. i n Figure 1-3.

The base-case cost data are summarized

The c a p i t a l costs shown are i n mid-1974 d o l l a r s and assume no

e s c a l a t i o n o r de-escalation between now and 1990.

10

The f u e l costs and e l e c t r i c

Figure 1-3:

Base Case Fuel, Capital and Electric Generation Costs.

Capital costs are i n mid-1974 dollars and include interest during constructton.

Fuel and e l e c t r i c generation costs are in levelfzed mid-1974 siIls/KwHa.

f U €

L 6

I

E L

I oin C

bo

C

A

C f R

r

P

R

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E 1 E

L

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L

C 1

0 f T

500

E

R I

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C I t Y

C T A I C I T

E

!I Coal

Scrub

Coa 1

-

Y

Coal

C A P I

C A

I T. A 1

P

1 R

I 1 A

Y

L

RFb

Fluidized OaS Bed Combined

Cvcla a.

30

Y

I

v

C

r

E 1 E C 1 R I C I

I

I

t I

L

.

LWR

6 E II E

R

i

A T I 0 N

1

E 1 E C T R I C

C

0 5 10

I

r

1

V

Y

LHFBR

f

U E

HTGR

The PR areas denote the cost savings attributable to Plutonium Recycle I n LWRs

11

E L E

f

5

(n.Ils/ KnHe)

generation costs are i n l e v e l l z e d mid-1974 mills/KwHe,

which means t h a t the

e f f e c t o f long-run i n f l a t i o n has been taken i n t o account. notes imnediate’y the t r a d i t i o n a l

I n t h i s t a b l e one

h i g h e r c a p i t a l and lower f u e l costs f o r the

nuclear syr.tc:a:.i as opposed to t h e f o s s i l

systems.

Among t h e f o s s i l systems

the f1uid:zed bed system seems t o have both the lowest c a p i t a l cost and e l e c t r i c generatio?

s t s , w h i l e among the n u c l e a r systems t h e HTGR system, w h i l e e x h i b i -

3

t i n g s l i g h t l y h i g h e r c a p i t a l cost than the LWR system, has (marcjinally) the lowest e i e c t r i i generation cost due t o i t s more e f f i c i e n t u t i l i z a t i o n of scarce uranium resour’es. clear

COS.:

Using the base-case assumptions, the nuclear systems show a

advantage over the f o s s i l system due t o t h e c u r r e n t l y e x i s t i n g h i g h

p r i c e s o f coal end r e s i d u a l fuel o i l . The base-case assumptions selected were c e r t a i n t o be c o n t r o v e r s i a l no matter what p a r t i c l . l a r values were chosen.

While ERDA a n a l y s t s are p r o j e c t i n g c a p i t a l

cost reductions f o r nuclear power p l a n t s i n the f u t u r e due t o l e a r n i n g e f f e c t s and economies o f scale (see, e.g.,

References (6) and (13911, o t h e r a n a l y s t s a r e

c o l l e c t i n g data m i c h show ’hat the c a p i t a l c o s t o f nuclear power p l a n t s has i n creased dramat ical l y i n recent years (see,

e.q., Reference (169)).

Further,

evidence e x i s t s which argues t h a t the OPEC c a r t e l p r i c e i s considerably below the c u r r e n t worlrt p r i c e :or o i l , and t h a t the c u r r e n t p r i c e o f coal i s substant a i l l y above the marginal t o s t o f producing i t (see and (60)).

%.

References ( 3 1 1 , (571,

I n view o f t’iese c o n t r o v e r s i e s and i n s t a b i l i t i e s , and the i n e v i t a b l e

u n c e r t a i n t i e s i n cond, &ions i n - t h e e l e c t r i c - p o w e r i n d u s t r y o f the f u t u r e o f which they are a produc., assumed f o r represent,tive

we explored the impact o f v a r y i n g some o f the parameter values

.e base-case over ranges wide enough t o i n c l u d e a l t e r n a t i v c values o f those fnurid i n the 1 i t e r a t u r e .

12

Various a l t e r n a t i v e assumptions

about c a p i t a l cost escalations, f u t u r e fuel fuel p r i c e s , capacity f a c t o r s and power p l a n t e f f i c i e n c i e s Figure 1-4.

l e d t o the range of e l e c t r i c generation c o s t s shown i n

Note t h a t no system

has a lower e l e c t r i c generation cost than

another under a l l p o s s i b l e circumstances.

In f a c t , as pointed o u t i n Section

e s c a l a t i o n i n nuclear power p l a n t c o n s t r u c t i o n costs over and above t h a t

Ill-A,

f o r f o s s i l power p l a n t s may negate the e l e c t r i c generation cost advantage f o r nuclear generation t h a t was so v i s i b l e i n Figure 1-3

.

While the futgre costs of e l e c t r i c generation by technologies t h a t a r e now commercial

(9. RFO, LWR, HTGR)

t h a t are s t i l l

are d i f f i c u l t t o ascertain, those f o r technologies

(2. Fluidized-Bed, LMFBR) are even more d i f f -

under development

i c u l t to estimate.

I n fact,

the f u r t h e r a technology i s from commercialization,

the m r e uncertain are i t s u l t i m a t e cost and performance parameters.

Additionally,

i n order f o r a technology to gain widespread acceptance, R t D funds must o f t e n be expended t o improve the safety and r e l i a b i l i t y o f c u r r e n t l y commercial technologies

(9. LWR).

Figure 1-5.

Projected

R

D costs for t h e e i g h t study systems a r e shown i n

t

I n the Table o n l y R t D costs t h a t can be d i r e c t l y a t t r i b u t e d t o a

-

p a r t i c u l a r system--; .e. mostly those spent on the power p l a n t s themselves are i n -

eluded.

Section 111-8 considers

systems,

-.

uranium mining.

R

& D categories t h a t can impact on

several

One notes immediately the r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e expen-

d i t u r e and long time span p r o j e c t e d f o r the LMFBR program.

13

Figure 1-4:

Range of Electric Generation Costs due to Plausible Variations from Base-Case Parameter Values

70

Generation costs i n leuellzed. mid-1974 m i 1 Is/KWHe

E L E C

W Denotes value base-case.

assumed for

60

1 R

I C 6 E

50

N E R A

1 I

o

b

I C 0 5 T

30 (mills/ KwHe)

c

4

29

I

t

I

I

Coal Scrub

I

I

I

I

I

I I

I

I

I

I

RFO

LWR

LWR-PU

LMFBR

HTGR

Coal Coal Fluidized 6as Bed Combined Cycle

Varied Parameters (for details see Section

1ll-A)

. Capital costs - High end i s 5% d i f f e r e n t i a l i n f l a t i o n t o 1990 plant startup.

. Fuel costs - High end i s 3%d i f f e r e n t i a l i n f l a t i o n t o f o r coal. . Plant (Gapacity) factors - nominal (0.75) t o h i s t o r i c . Power

plant efficiencies

14

nominal t o advanced.

1990 startup (-0.60)

Figure 1-5:

Projected R b D costs

Ill-A-6. Section Ill-A-8 for additional general support

See Table

See coal, o i l and reactor systems

RSD for

197

6500 R & D costs

(in m i 1 I ions

of dol lers)

1500

1000

194

500

I981

Coal Scrub

Coal

1984

Coal

RFO

Fluidized Gar Bed tomblned

Cycle a.

See coal-scrub.

IS

1984

1984

LWR

LWR-PU

LHFBR

HTGR

Comparisons:

Environmental and Health Impacts

Figures 1-6

-

1-8 present t h e occupational and pub1 c h e a l t h impacta, and

t h e r i s k s of c a t a s t r o p h i c accidents a t power p l a n t s .

I n some cases, t h e range

of estimates i s l a r g e due to u n c e r t a i n t i e s i n t h e unders anding of t h e processes involved,

e,q., nuclear

power p l a n t r i s k s .

I n o t h e r areas the ranges a r e l a r g e

because of u n c e r t a i n t i e s about f u t u r e regulations,

*,

dust l e v e l s i n coal mines.

In many cases where there i s a seemingly narrow range, moreover, the reason i s

not t h a t t h e impact i s known w i t h g r e a t accuracy, b u t r a t h e r than we found o n l y one source i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e d e a l i n g w i t h t h a t impact.

The ranges shown a r e o n l y

a r e s u l t o f t h e s c a t t e r of values i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e , n o t the r e s u l t of an a n a l y s i s of p r o b a b i l i t y d i s t r i b u t i o n .

Thus, for t h e impacts of t h e HTGR, f o r example, the

t r u e ranges o f u n c e r t a i n t y a r e probably much l a r g e r than the ranges f o r the LWR impacts. system.

However, many more estimates have been made f o r the impacts of t h e LWR

For a more d e t a i l e d discussion o f e x a c t l y what assumptions, u n c e r t a i n t i e s ,

and data went i n t o developing the range of impacts f o r each system, see Chapter 1 1 1 and Appendices A-H. It i s evident from Figures 1-6 and

1-7 t h a t f u t u r e coal systems ( f l u i d i z e d

bed and g a s i f i c a t i o n ) could have h e a l t h impacts s u b s t a n t i a l l y below t h e l e v e l o f the coal-scrubber system.

Occupational impacts w i l l f a l l mainly through b e t t e r con-

t r o l of dust l e v e l s and accidents i n coal mines, and p u b l i c impacts w i l l f a l l through smaller a i r emissions a t power p l a n t s .

The impact of the low-Btu gaslcornbined c y c l e

coal system has the p o t e n t i a l o f being over 300 times less damaging t o p u b l i c h e a l t h than p r e s e n t l y operating coal-scrubber systems.

Implementation of c u r r e n t dust

standards and improving mine accidept safety t o t h e l e v e l o f today's safest mines would r e s u l t i n a reduction by more than a f a c t o r o f IO i n the damage t o workers' health. Nuclear systems do not seem t o have a chance f o r such a spectacular improvement i c . o u t i n e impacts, although, because of increased c o n t r o l o f rbdioisotopes a t

16

Occupational Impacts @

Figure 1-6:

Logarithmic

Scala

1-1 100

Accidents

I-------

I Disease

10 I

r

z I

\ Y

v)

0 v)

>

I

1

(0

i

-0 I C

s

I

a8 a

T

T

7

I

i

1

t

f

&

A

I I @

I@

0.1

I

I

-c

t I

Coa 1 Scrub

a. Upper rates b. Lower mines

Coa 1 Fluidized

Cod 1

Bed

Combined Cyc I e

part of i n coal impacts were t o

I

I

R FO

1 I

LWR

I

LUR-Pu

I

f

LHFBR

HTGR

I

Gas

range is p r i m a r i l y based on c u r r e n t average accident mines. can be achieved i f the average accident r a t e s i n coal approach the r a t e s i n safest present mines.

c. This range represents t h e impact i f present dust l e v e l r e g u l a t i o n s a r e enforced. d. See Appendix A-3 for disease r a t e s i n present mines. e. No occupational diseases have been i d e n t i f i e d here f o r RFO. f. Could be thought o f as t h e best p o s s i b l e cor LWR as w e l l . 9 . Icnnc! person-davs loFt (PnL)/&ath blhether premature deaths o r a c u t e d e a t h s , 50 PDL/accident o r i l l n e s s and 100 PDL/cancer. These very d i f f e r e n t s o c i a l impacts can be separated by reference t o append ices

.

17

Figure 1-7: Public impact: Routine Emissions and Accidents Logari. thmfc Sea le

7-

7 I

I

I

I I

I

I

T

I

I I

I

1

?-

I

fs

I

8

h9

I

I

I

l

I

L

I

A.

1; I

I

I

I l

I

I I

I

-L C

$ L el

n.

I I

CoeI Scrub

a.

b. C.

d.

Cod I Fluidized

Coe 1

Bed

Combined Cyel e

Rfo

LWR

*I I

LWR-PU

LMFER

HTGR

Cas

SOX pollution and whole body radiation dose only. No public accidents identified for RFO. Includes the global dose from Kr-85 and H-3. See Appendlx.

Health impacts o f long-term storage o r disposal considered t o be zero due to current lack of data i n t h i s area.

reprocessing p l a n t s and less uranium mining

(s., i n the LMFBR

c y c l e ) , the t o t a l

r o u t i n e impacts can be lessened i n f u t u r e appl i c a t i o n s . Only the r e s i d u a l f u e l o i l (RFO) system competes a t a l l w i t h nuclear systems on tbe basis o f r o u t i n e impacts, a t present.

However, f u t u r e coal systems w i l l

narrow the gap between the magnitude o f nuclear and coal r o u t i n e impacts considerably.

I n a d d i t i o n , coal systems do not seem t o have the p o t e n t i a l f o r major

impact thrcugh large accidents, as do nuclear systems and RFO ( t h e event of cern w i t h RFO being major f i r e s under i n v e r s i o n c o n d i t i o n s ) . which presents o n l y the impacts

(See F i g u r e

CCC-

1-8,

o f deaths from l a r g e accide:its a t power plants.)

I f nucleer accidents are as infrequent and low i n consequence as i n d i c a t e d by the

low end o f the ranges i n Figure 1-8, the average impact o f these accidents would not add much t o the t o t a

impact.

I f , however, the accident r i s k i s a t the higher

end o f these ranges, the r e s u l t of adding i n the average impact would be t o place nuc ear and the best coa

systems on a rough par w i t h each o t h e r .

7 ere are, o f

course, o t h e r impacts t o be considered and there a r e severe problems t h a t r e s u l t from the differences

i n the temporal, geographic and demographic d i s t r i b u t i o n s o f

impacts i n d i f f e r e n t systems.

See Chapter 1 1 1 and the Appendices f o r a more com-

p l e t e d iscuss ion. To summarize:

coal systems a r e becoming safer f o r workers and cleaner f o r

everyone, but not t o the l e v e l of nuclear systems.

Nuclear systems, however,

have a r i s k of l a r g e accidents which makes the t o t a l impact from nuclear povJer uncertain, but p o t e n t i a l l y as great o r g r e a t e r as the impact from the best f o s s i l sys tems.

Figure

1-9;

S o c i e t a l R i s k a t Power P l a n t :

Large Accidents

Logeri thmic Scale

100

10

-

1-

0.1-

0.01

0.001

-

I

-

0.0001

I

I

I

Coal Scrub

I

I

I

I

Coe 1 Coa1 Fluidized Gas Bed Combined

1

1

R FO

1

I

LWR

1 I

LWR-PU

1

I

1

LHFBL

HYGR

Cyc 1e a. A t

6000

injury,

days p e r d e a t h . T h i s i n c l u d e s no a c c o u n t i n g o f t h e days l o s t t o i l l n e s s , g e n e t i c e f f e c t s , b l a c k m a i l , d i v e r s i o n o r sabotage.

b. No l a r g e a c c i d e n t s have been a s s o c i a t e d w i t h c o a l p l a n t s .

20

Chapter I I

TECHNICAL DESCRIPTIONS

This chapter presents the technical c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and present l e v e l o f development i n the e i g h t systems picked f o r d e t a i l e d study.

There are f o u r

f o s s i l and f o u r ncclear systems i n t h i s group and summary o f the important technical parameters a r e rresented a t the end o f the chapter i n Tables 1 1 - 1 anc' 11-2.

Foss i 1 Systems : Coal Systems Steam conversion and wet 1 ime flue-gas d e s u l f u r i z a t i o n

(coal-scrub)

Fluidized-bed conversion w i t h s u l f u r recovery Low-Btu g a s i f ication/combined-cycle combustion (C-C. system) Residual Fuel O i l w i t h steam conversion and & e t lime flue-gas d e s u l f u r i z a t i o n (RFO)

Nuclear Sys tems : Light-Water Reactor (LWR) Light-Water Reactor w i t h plutonium recycle (LWR-Pu) L i q u i d Metal F a s t Breeder Reactor 'I MFBR) High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor (HTGR)

COAL SYSTEHS

& f i r s t describe the f u e l c;#cle necessary to prepare coal f o r use a t the three a l t e r n a t i v e coal-based power p l a n t s we have selected f o r study. In t h i s study we consider two a l t e r n a t i v e sources for coal:

4ppalach an deep mines and (2) Northwestern surface mines.

(1) Northern

The occupational h e a l t h

and subs dence problems associated w i t h deep mines, and the land damage/reclamation problems asrcciated w i t h surface mines are tabulated separately.

However, Once

*5e coal i s mined i: i s aggregaied, f o r the purposes o f t h i s study, i n t o a s i n g l e l b a t i o n a l average coal .I1

A f t e r e x t r a c t i o n , t h i s "national average coal" i s trans-

ported (usually a short distance by t r u c k o r conveyor) t o a processing p l a n t where i t i s crushed and cleaned.

The clean coal i s then t y p i c a l l y transported by t r a i n

several hundred miles t o the power plant. c y c l e see g.q., references (11, (21,

(31,

For f u r t h e r d e t a i l s on the coal fuel and

(7).

A major problem w i t h the c o a l - < i r e d e l e c t r i c g e m r a t i o n p l a n t s o f the past has been the excessive amount of s u l f u r oxides t h a t these p l a n t s generate.

These

s u l f u r e m i s s i o n s have been shown t o have detrimental environmentaf and h e a l t h effects.

I n a coal-based system s u l f u r can be removed before, during

combustion.

or a f t e r

Each of the coal-based systems we have selected f o r analysis i s de-

signed t o remove the s u l f u r a t one o f these three stages:

stack-gas cleanup,

a f t e r combustion; f l u i d i t e d - b e d combustion, during combustion; and coal g a s i f i c a t i o n , before combustion.

22

Coa 1 w i t h Lime Scrubber Flue Gas D e s u l f u r i z a t i o n

This a l t e r n a t ve involves the use o f a conventional c o a l - f i r e d steam-cycle p l a n t w i t h removal of s u l f u r d i o x i d e f r o m the stack gas. a c o a l - f i r e d steam c y c l e i s a mature technology.

E l e c t r i c generation from

I n modern p l a n t s the combustion

of coal i n a b o i l e r i s used t o r a i s e steam a t 1100" F and 3800 psig.

This steam

i s p a r t i a l l y expanded through a t u r b i n e t h a t d r i v e s an e l e c t r i c generator.

The

steam i s then sent back t o the b o i l e r for reheat t o llOOo F (now a t lower pressure) and expanded through another t u r b i n e and condensed and cooled t o about 100°F.

The

thermal e f f i c i e n c y of t h i s system i s about 37% (accounting f o r wet c o o l i n g towers and SO2 removal) and i s n o t expected t o improve very much i n the future;

the

metals c u r r e n t l y used are near t h e i r m e t a l l u r g i c a l l i m i t , and metals capable o f withstanding more severe steam c 7 d i t i o n s a r e t o o c o s t l y and have a l i m i t e d l i f e time (Ref.

(6)).

The m a j o r problem w i t h removing s u l f u r from the stack gas i s t h a t a l a r g e f r a c t i o n o f a small concentration o f SO2 must be removed from l a r g e volumes o f stack gas. ment.

There are dozens of flue-gas d e s u l f u r i z a t i o n processes under develop-

A recent report o f the Commission on Natural Resources of the National

Academies o f Science and Engineering (Ref.

(15)) contains a c r i t i c a l assessment of the

deve!opment s t a t u s of these a l t e r n a t i v e processes.

This r e p o r t f i r s t notes t h a t ,

o f a l l the proposed f l u e gas d e s u l f u r i z a t i o n systems, o n l y the lime and limestone scrubbing systems have been operated s u c c e s s f u l l y on a commercial scale.

Secondly,

i t i s concluded t h a t lime scrubbing i s the most r e l i a b l e system a t t h i s time.

Therefore, we have selected the 1 ime scrubber f lue-gas d e s u l f u r i z a t i o n system for i n c l u s i o n i n t h i s study. I n the lime scrubber process about 90% o f the s u l f u r i n the stack gas i s absorbed i n t o a lime s l u r r y .

One drawback o f t h i s process i s t h a t a l a r g e amount o f

23

sludge i s generated and must be disposed of. are being studied (e.$ -

Ref.

Although methods for sludge disposal

(go)), the long term solution to this problem may be

the successful development o f regenerative flue gas desulfurization processes (Ref. (15)).

24

Coal w i t h Fludited-Bed Combustion I n f l u i d i z e d - b e d combustion s u l f u r

itself.

Is removed d u r i n g the combustion process

A i r i s passed upwards through a bed o f granular l i m e o r ash c r e a t i n g an

a i r suspension o f these non-combustible m a t e r i a l s .

T h i s a i r a l s o serves as com-

b u s t i o n a i r f o r crushed or f i n e l y grcund c o a l which i s i n j e c t e d near the base of Heat t r a n s f e r surfaces are immersed i n t h e bed a l l w i n g

a f l u i d i z e d bed.

improved heat t r a n s f e r , h i g h volumetric heat release, and r e l a t i v e l y l o w o p e r a t i n g temperatures of about 1600 t o 1800 degrees F.

Low o p e r a t i n g temperatures lead t o

reduced n i t r o g e n o x i d e e m i s s i o n s as compared to conventional b o i l e r s , and burning coal i n the presence o f a s u l f u r acceptor such as limestone or dolomite promises t o e f f e c t i v e l y remove up t o 958 o f the s u l f u r i n the coal d u r i n g combustion. Both atmospheric (References (97) and (98)) and pressurized (References

(13).

(94) and (96))

f l u i d i z e d - b e d b o i l e r concepts a r e being developed.

Atmo-

s p e r i c systems would replace conventional b o i l e r s , w h i l e pressurized systems p o t e n t i a l l v operating a t pressures i n excess o f 20 atmospheres promise thermal e f f i c i e n c i e s as h i g h as

45%.

pressurized fluidized-bed

We have selected the Westinghouse 635-Mwe

b o i l e r (References ( 1 3 ) .

(94), and (96))

as i t promises higher e f f i c i e n c i e s i n the long run (i.e.

for a n a l y s i s ,

i n the time frame

s p e c i f i e d for t h i s study) than the atmospheric systems and the Westinghouse p r e l i m i n a r y design studies o f the system ‘References ( 1 3 ) ,

‘94) and ( 9 6 ) )

in-

clude data thought t o be r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f proposed f l u i d i z e d - b e d systems.

The

Westinghouse system operates a t 1750 degrees F. and 10 atmospheres, w i t h an i n i t i a l thermal e f f i c i e n c y o f 37% ( i n c l u d i n g p r o v i s i o n f o r a w e t c o o l i n g tower). One f i n a l p o i n t needs c l a r i f i c a t i o n . combined-cycle system.

Westinghouse r e f e r s t o i t s design as a

Before the f l u e gases are rele,-sed t o the atmosphere, they

are cleansed o f p a r t i c u l a t e s by cyclones and aerodyne-type dust c o l l e c t o r s and ( s t i l l a t 1600’

F. and 10 atms.) expanded through a gas t u r b i n e .

25

I n fact t h i s

gas t u r b i n e supplies 24% o f the system's maximum 635-Mwe output power.

system, the steam and expander t u r b i n e cycles are run i n p a r a l l e l . report, a 'combinedAcycle'

In this

In this

system r e f e r s t o a system i n which the gas and steam

turbines are run i n series, w i t h the steam t u r b i n e using the exhaust o f the gas combustion t u r b i n e as input.

26

Low-Btu

Coal Gasification/Combined-Cycle System

This system involves a two stage process i n which coal i s converted t o a low-

Btu ( t y p i c a l l y 120

t 7

200 Btu/Scf) gas, which i s subsequently used as fuel f o r a

combined-cycle power system, been proposed (Refs.

Many methods f o r producing low-Btu gas from coal have

(105), ( l o b ) , (107). ( l a ) , and ( l o g ) ) .

A f t e r i m p u r i t i e s have

been removed, the product o f the g a s i f i c a t i o n process i s a m i x t u r e

? carbon monoxide,

carbon d i o x i d e , hydrogen, n i t r o g e n and methane. S u l f u r can be removed from the gas stream by a number o f commercial methods. a t temperatures up t o about 600'

F.

(Ref.

However, these processes a r e o n l y e f f e c t i v e

(110)).

O f a l l the proposed low-Btu g a s i -

f i c a t i o n processes, o n l y the L u r g i and I g n i f l u i d processes have had s i g n i f i c a n t c o m e r cia1 application.

Since ample data a r e a v a i l a b l e f o r the Lurgi process and because

i t represents a benchmark f o r advanced systems, we have selected i t f o r i n c l u s i o n i n our study.

I n the Lurgi process (Refs.

(1061, (107), ( l o a ) , ( 1 1 1 ) . and (112)) coal i s fed

i n t e r m i t t e n t l y through a l o c k hopper i n t o a f i x e d bed a t about 20 atmospheres and

1200-1600° F. and g a s i f i e d w i t h a i r and steam. remove coal dust, a l k a l i and c h l o r i n e .

The raw gas i s then scrubbed to

A f t e r cooling, the H2S

gas stream by an a l k a l i z e d wash and converted i n t o elemental gas i s a t about 200° F. and about

17 atms.

i s removed from the sulfur.

The product

The thermal e f f i c i e n c y o f t h i s process i s

75.8%and s u l f u r removal e f f i c r e n c i e s as h i g h as 99.7% (Ref. ( 3 ) ) are expected. I n t h i s system waste heat from a gas t u r b i n e i s used as a heat source f o r a

steam cycle.

I n 1972, several hundred-ke o f n a t u r a l gas f i r e d combined-cycle systems

were i n use, and 2500-Mwe were on order (Ref.

(40)). The thermal e f f i c i e n c y o f

a

combined-cycle system i s 1 i m i t e d l a r g e l y by the achievable t u r b i n e i n l e t temperature. The system considered here has a t u r b i n e i n l e t temperature o f about 2200' which gives a combined-cycle thermal e f f i c i e n c y o f 47%.

27

F.,

Turbine i n l e t temperatures

of 31OO0F (leading

-0

thermal e f f i c i e n c i e s of 57.7%) are thought to be possible

i n the foreseeable future (Refs. 23, lO3A).

For our overall coal-gasif icat ion/

combined cycle power plant the thermal efficiency i s about 37%.

28

Residual Fuel 011 F i r e d P l a n t w i t h Stack Gas Cleanup

This a l t e r n a t i v e i s i d e n t i c a l t o the c o a l - f i r e d p l a n t w i t h stack gas cleanup described above, except f o r minor differences due t o the f a c t t h a t r e s i d u a l f u e l

o i l replaces coal as the primary f u e l .

With o i l , which i s less b u l k y than coal,

less storage space i s required, and f o l l o w i n g combustion there i s v i r t u a l l y no ash t o be disposed of.

However, the f u e l c y c l e required t o prepare the o i l f o r

use a t the power p l a n t i s obviously q u i t e d i f f e r e n t f r o m the coal f u e l c y c l e and

w i 1 1 be described here. I n t h i s r e p o r t we w i l l consider two a l t e r n a t i v e sources o f o i l f o r e l e c t r i c power generation:

(1) domestic o f f s h o r e o i l which i s assumed t o be transported t o

the r e f i n e r y by p i p e l i n e and (2) f o r e i g n crude which i s assumed t o be transported t o the r e f i n e r y by o i l tanker.

A t the r e f i n e r y the crude i s transformed i n t o a

number o f petroleum products i n c l u d i n g gasol ine, d i s t i1 l a t e f u e l o i 1 and residual fuel o i l .

Residual fuel o i l i s tSen t y p i c a l l y transported t o the power p l a n t by

pipeline.

For f u r t h e r discussion o f thz oil f u e l cycle see the references given

a t the end o f the coal fuel c y c l e description. Summary data i s shown in Table 1 1 - 1

29

f o r the f o s s i l systems.

LWR The designation of l i g h t - w a t e r r e a c t o r i n t h i s study includes both b o i l i n g water (BWR) and pressurized-water (PUR) r e a c t o r systems.

Most of t h e costs and

impacts a r e s i m i l a r for t h e two systems, and we combine them i n t o a s i n g l e t a b l e here except i n those categories where t h e r e i s a s i g n i f i c a n t difference.

LWRs r e l y f o r t h e i r energy production mainly on t h e f i s s i l e isotope of uranium, U-235,

which f i s s i o n s best w i t h thermal ( l o w energy) neutrons.*

U-235

contains pound for pound about 2.5 m i l l i o n times as much energy as coal, but

U-235 makes up o n l y about 0.7% of n a t u r a l uranium, and uranium makes up o n l y about 0.17% of the sandstone o r e being mined today. ment i s n o t t r i v i a l .

Accordingly,

the ore require-

For use i n a LWR, t h e uranium o r e i s 1/35 o f t h e rJeight o f

coal f o r equivalent amount o f energy a t the power p l a n t . This o r e i s processed i n uranium m i l l s t o e x t r a c t uranium o x i d e (U 0 ). The U 0

3 8

3 8

i s sent t o a conversion

p l a n t which converts i t i n t o t h e gas, UF6, f o r i n p u t t o the gaseous-diffusion e n r i c h ment plants.

A t the enrichment p l a n t s the percentage o f U-235 i s increased to 2 4 %

and the depleted uranium (or t a i l s ) , containing 0.25% U-235 and 95.75% U-238, stored on s i t e .

The enriched uranium i s then f a b r i c a t e d i n t o f u e l rcds o f UO 2

which a r e loaded i n t o t h e reactor. c o n t a i n i n g "spent"

After 3 to

4

years i n t h e r e a c t o r the rods, now

f u e l , are sent t o f u e l reprocessing p l a n t s where, a f t e r

chemical processing, three separate streams o f m a t e r i a l emerge.

*

is

The f i r s t

A f i s s i l e m a t e r i a l w i l l r e a d i l y undergo f i s s i o n and release energy when s t r u c k

by a neutron.

A f e r t l e m a t e r i a l undergoes f i s s i o n much l e s s r e a d i l y but under

some circumstances can capture a neutron and thereby be converted i n t o a f i s s i l e material.

Today's LWRs o b t a i n about 80 percent o f t h e i r energy from the f i s s i o n

o f U-235 and 2 0 percent from the c o i n c i d e n t a l f i s s i o n o f f e r t i l e U-238 and p l u t o n ium made irorn U-238.

30

stream c o n s i s t s o f f i s s i o n products and o t h e r r a d i o a c t i v e wastes which a r e sent t o waste management f a c i l i t i e s .

Another stream c o n s i s t s o f tt,c remaining uran-

i u m which now i s o n l y s l i g h t l y enriched over n a t u r a l uranium and i s sent back t o the conversion p l a n t i n p a r a l l e l

to the incoming stream o f n a t u r a l uranium.

The

t h i r d stream i s plutonium-239 produced i n the r e a c t o r by the capture of neutrons i n f e r t i l e U-238.

T h i s plutonium i s stored for p o s s i b l e f u t u r e r e c y c l i n g i n LWRs,

o r i n breeder reactors.

LWR power p l a n t s a r e comnercial l y a v a i l a b l e now, and w i t h i n the time p e r i o d of t h i s study t h e i r design i s l i k e l y to change s g n i f c a n t l y o n l y i n the areas

of increased environmental and s a f e t y equipment.

The f u e l - c y c l e f a c i l i t i e s from

mining t o power p l a n t a r e a l s o w e l l developed and subject t o o n l y s l i g h t chanse i n the next decades, w i t h the exception o f enrichment.

on methods of enrichment--=.*,

(Research i s being done

l a s e r separation--which p o t e n t i a l l y could lowed-

the c a p i t a l and enercjy requirements of -iirlchment s i g n i f i c a n t l y .

See chapter 1 1 1 . )

However, the two steps a f t e r the power p l a n t , reprocessing and waste management, do n o t e x i s t i n comnercial form today and w i l l have t o be developed q u i c k l y i n order t o support a l a r g e c a p a c i t y o f LWRs.

There i s no operating f u e l repro-

cessing p l a n t a t t h i s time, although one i s being b u i l t and another undergoing niodification. ities.

Spent f u e l rods a r e beginning t o e x e r t a burden on storage f a c i l -

Previously reprocessed waste i s being stored i n temporary f a c i l i t i e s

u n t i l a d e c i s i o n i s made about the type o f management scheme t o be followed. e x p x t a t i o n o f the i n d u s t r y and t t . problems w i l l be solved .y ences 6,9,

19,21,45,143.

)

The

responsible government agencies i s t h a t these

the end o f t h i s decade o r s h o r t l y t h e r e a f t e r .

(Refer-

LWR w i t h Plutonium Recycle

A LWR can be operated w i t h several d i f f e r e n t mixtures o f plutonium and uranium f u e l q a n d there i s an economic incentive

to u t i l i z e the plutonium

which i s produced i n uranium-fueled LWRs t o reduce the requirement f o r enriched u r a n i m input. We have chosen the type of plutonium-recycle system i n which some of the enriched uranium oxide f u e l rods i n the LWRs have been replaced w i t h rods cont a i n i n g both Pu02 and n a t u r a l U O p . t o be used i n the time perio.

This seems to be the most l i k e l y system

msidered i n t h i s study.

There are sigr I f i c a n t d i t t e r e n c e s between a LWR power system w i t h and without plutonium recycle.

The economic f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g the value o f p l u t o n -

ium a r e extremelv complicated and subject t o wide i n t e r p r e t a t i o n .

With p l u t o n -

ium recycle, the major environmental d i f f e r e n c e s r e s u l t from the increased e f f e c t o f leaks associated w i t h the l a r g e r amounts of plutonium i n the c y c l e , and from the increased a v a i l a b i l i t y o f t h e plutonium i n forms a t t r a c t i v e f o r

I f recyc e i s i n s t i t u t e d , mixed oxide f a b r c a t ion p l a n t s w i 1 1 have

diversion. t o ';e !ru i!t

.

The d e c i s i o n whether 3r n o t t o i n i t i a t e plutonium recycle i n LWRs was

? , - : g ; . . j l y scheduled t o be made i n

I975

~ . . 1 i i 1a t l e a s t 1978. (References 3,12,

but has been delayed f o r f u r t h e r study

141,163,164.)

32

The LMFBR i s p a r t o f a nuclear power system which d i f f e r s i n several import a n t respects from LWR systems.

I t has d i f f e r e n t economic and enviionmentai

c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and i s i n a much e a r l i e r stage o f development. The basic d i f f e r e n c e betweet? a breeder r e a c t o r and t + e "converter"

type of

r e a c t o r represented by the LWR i s t h a t a much l a r g e r percentage o f the t o t a l energy p o t e n t i a l l y a v a i l a b l e i n the uranium can be u t i l i z e d i n breeder reactors. Much more of the U-238 i s converted t o plutonium and, p o t e n t i a l l y , a breeder svstem t a n generate a l l i t s f u e l from U-238 and be completely independent o f U-235.

No enrichment capacity i s necessarv f o r a breeder system i f the breeding doubling time" roughly corresponds t o the doubling time f o r the c o n s t r u c t i o n o f new generating capacity.

However, the f i r s t breeders w i l l have doubling times

much longer than the 10 years o r l e s s thought t o be optimum i n the i n d u s t r y .

At

f i r s t , the i n i t i a l and reload cores o f plutonium w i l l be f a b r i c a t e d from the plutonium produced and stored i n t h r LWR c y c l e . breeders and LWRs cannot be e n t i r e l y separated;

Indeed, the economics o f . i.e., _-

there i s some a d d i t i o n a l

i n c e n t i v e f o r b u i l d i n g more LWRs because some o f tne plutonium produced

n LWRs w i l l be bought f o r use i n the breeders.

The amount o f uran um

needed i n a LMFBR (as a source of U-23s f o r breeding w i t h plutonium) i s much

~~

A

The doubling ti:ne i s the time i t takes t o double the inventory o f f i s s i l e

m a t e r i a l incIudir,g the m a t e r i a l c i r c u l a t i n g in the f u e l cycle.

Consequently i t

i s a f u n c t i o n not o n l y of the r e a c t o r and f u e l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s b u t a l s o o f the

cool ing period,

processing t i m e and o t h e r f u e l c y c l e parameters.

33

smaller than the

requirement o f LWks and other converters.

For some time t o

come,theneeds of LMFBRs probably w i l l be obtained from the depleted n a t u r a l uranium t a i l s a t enrichment p l a n t s . technology and

However, i f breeders become the major nuclear

remain so, new uranium w i l l e v e n t d a l l y have t o be mined t o

supply them w i t h U-238.

Thus we have counted the environmental e f f e c t of mining

and m i l l i n g the LMFBRIs small uranium requirement a g a i n s t the breeder program, as have several o t h e r studies. Fuel fabric;.ion

p l a n t s w i l l be s i m i l a r t o the .?ixed oxide p l a n t s r e q u i r e d

f o r a LWR r e c y c l e system.

Fuel reprocessing p l a n t s , although s i m i l a r t o those

f o r LWRs, w i l l have t o be more c a r e f u l l y managed; t h i s i s so because t o maximize breeding r a t i o , f u e l discharged from LMFBRs w i l l not be stored as long as i s LWR f u e l before reprocessing, so i t w i l l be more r a d i o a c t i v e .

I n a d d i t i o n there

a r e l a r g e r amounts of plutonium a t each step than i n e i t h e r the LWR o r LWR-plutoniumr e c y c l e systems. Research i n f a s t reactor f u e l s f o r use i n commercial p l a n t s w i l l be undertaken a t !.he Fast F l u x Test F a c i l i t y (FFTF) which i s a government funded t e s t r e a c t o r rated a t 400-Mwth and scheduled f o r o p e r a t i o n i n 1977.

The f i r s t demon-

s t r a t i o n r e a c t o r , which f o l l o w s the operat i o n o f several snial l e r special-purpose f a s t reactors, w i l l be b u i l t f o r TVA a t C l i n c h River. t o begin

o p e r a t i o n i n 1982.

This r e a c t o r i s now planned

I t w i l l be r a t e d a t 350-Mwe, operate a t about

36% tht8,naI e f f i c i e n c y , and have a very long doubling time--perhaps 60 years o r more.

The f i r s t f u l l - s c a l e corrmercial p l a n t s a r e planned t o come i n t o o p e r a t i o n

about 1990 and be a t l e a s t 1300’Mwe.

These p l a n t s are expected t o have about a

40% thema1 e f f i c i e n c y and a 25 year doubling t i m e .

Decreased doubling t i m e s

w i l l i r o b a b l y r e q u i r e advanced oxide, n i t r i d e o r carbide f u e l s which a r e u n l i k e l y

t o have much impact i n the t i m e period being considered i n t h i s study. (References

6 , 2 1 , 43, 45, 170-172, 178. ) 34

HTGR

The HTGR i s a he1 ium-cooled, advanced-converter r e a c t o r (not a breeder), which operates on the uranium-thorium f u e l c y c l e . f i s s i l e ) i s used i n g r a p h i t e m a t r i x core.

Highly enriched uranium (93.5%

combination w i t h the f e r t i l e m a t e r i a l , thorium 232, i n a The helium coolant i s c i r c u l a t e d a t h i g h precsure and the

Lemperatures p o t e n t i a l l y a t t a i n a b l e are h i g h enough t o reach 40% thermal e f f i c i e n c y w i t h simple steam conversion. Uranium 233 i s formed when thorium 232 captures a neutron i n the core.

Since

the thorium and uranium f u e l p a r t i c l e s i n the r e s c t o r are p h y s i c a l l y separate t h i s U-233 can be separated e a s i l y a t the reprocessing p l a n t . separate streams which emerge from the reprocessing p l a n t . which i s sent back t o the f a b r i c a t i o n p l a n t f o r recycle.

Thus there a r e s i x

Cne i s unreacted U-235 The second, newly formed

U-233, and the t h i r d , recycled U-233, are a l s o sent back t o the f a b r i c a t i o n p l a n t . The f o u r t h i s the f i s s i o n products and o t h e r r a d i o a c t i v e wastes which ;-e the waste management f a c i l i t i e s .

sent t o

The f i f t h i s unreacted thorium whicn i s .:3w very .'.

r a d i o a c t i v e and w i l l be disposed o f i n waste management f a c i l i t i e s .

The F-ixth

i s U-235 and U-238 which has passed through the r e a c t o r a second time and now

Is

unsuitable f o r f u r t h e r use due t o Icw concentration and poison b u i l d u p (U-236) and must be send t o waste management. I n a a d i t i o n , although t h e r e i s r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e U-238 i n the HTCR c y c l e the small amount does produce some plutonium by neutron capture.

A t the present

time i t does qot seem economical t o separate out t h i s plutonium and so i t i s l e f t

A

The thorium could be stored f o r about I 5 years u n t i l the r a d i o a c t i v i t y becomes

low enough f o r r e c y c l e and manual f u e l f a b r i c a t i o n but t h i s i s not planned.

35

i n the waste streams.

Thus, although there i s much l e s s plutonium produced i n

HTGRs than i n 1URs there i s s u b s t a n t i a l l y more i n the f i n a l waste.

*

The a m u n t of enrichment required f o r an HTGR i s a c t u a l l y l e s s than for a

1WR evcn though the l e v e l of enrichment i s so much higher. the much smaller t o t a l o f uranium requirement.

This r e s u l t s f r o m

The f u e l f a b r i c a t i o n and r e -

processing f a c i l i t i e s are very d i f f e r e n t from those used for LWRs o r LMFBRs and, o f course, o n l y the HTGRsrequire thorium mining and m i l l i n g .

The thorium r e -

quirements, however, a r t very modest. A prototype 40-Mwe HTGR was operated a t Peach Bottom, Penn. from 1967 u n t i l shutdown i n 1974.

In

1974 power t e s t i n g began a t the Fort S t . V r a i n

3 3 0 - H ~demonstration ~ HTGR ir: Colorado.

General Atomic i s o f f e r i n g 770

and 1160-Nb;e p l a n t s for sale and several u t i l i t i e s have placed orders. However, recently, there have been several c a n c e l l a t i o n s and d e f e r r a l s and there a r e no operating f u e l f a b r i c a t i o n or reprocessing p l a n t s for the HTGR, although

small demonstr6tion p l a n t s a r e planned to begin o p e r a t i o n i n 1979.

The success-

f u l e n t r y o f HTGRs intc the u t i l i t y market w i l l depend on the performance o f the demonstration reactor, the establishment of a complete f u e l c y c l e , the s t a t u s o f the nuclear i n d u s t r y ir, general, and to some e x t e n t on the w i l l ingness o f the government t o provide research and deve1o;-mnt to

+

assistance t o the e f f o r t which,

date, has been l a r g e l y funded by p r i v a t e industry.*$:

This plutonium, however, has a smaller f r a c t i o n o f long-1 ived Plutonium-239

and thus a f t e r several hundred years the a c t i v i t y o f plutonium fro17 HTGRs i s

less.

General Atomic, who i s the commercial s u p p l i e r o f HTGR,has r e c e n t l y announced t h a t they w i l l not be supplying HTGRs (Nuclear News, Nov. 75).

36

HTGRs could p o t e n t i a l l y operate a t a temperature h i g h enough

to be used

as a source of process heat f o r i n d u s t r i a l a p p l i c a t i o n s o r hydrogen generation. A l t e r n a t e l y , w i t h the a p p l i c a t i o n of a c h s e d - c y c l e gas t u r b i n e p l u s a vapor bottoming c y c l e the thermal e f f i c i e n c y for e l e c t r i c i t y generation could potent i a l l y reach 50%. However, w i t h present m a t e r i a l s these h i g h temperatures a r e d i f f i c u l t t o use and s t i l l achieve a h i g h degree o f component s a f e t y and re-

1 i a b i 1 ity.

These appl i c a t i o n s w i 1 1 probably not have a s i g n i f i c a n t impact d u r i n g

the time p e r i o d considered by t h i s study. (References 3,6,21,179-185) Sumnary data i s shown i n Table 11-2 for t h e nuclear systems.

37

Table 11-1 Technical Specfffcatfems

Fossil Power Plant$

Coal -Steam with Scrubber

therlWll Efficiency

8

Critical Temperature

Size

@

OC

37

1000

)Iwe

Coal F 1uid iz e b Bed

- 39

36

- 43

- llO@

1603

-

toat

oi I-Steam

Low-Btu Gad combined- cycle

Scrubbar

,SO@

3@

IO@

29

1800

6

- 51 8 - jlO@

8

with

37

1000

- 39 - 11Op

see coalsteam w i t h scrubber

Sulfur Removal %

@

80

- go

a.

See text and appendices.

b.

Steam temperature.

90

- 9s

Lime scrubber, 830-Mwe beinp b u i l t

d.

Combust ion temperature

e.

Atmospheric piant t o begin operation June, 1975 (215).

f.

39

9h.

Combined-cycle plant only ( 3 0 ) .

578 combustion,

- 99.7

80

- 90

(IS)

C.

-

98

(6). 75

- 90%g a s i f i e r .

Gas turbine i n l e t temperature (23).

Is operatinq i n Genany (113e).

A 170-Mwe plant u t i l i t i n g Lurgi low-Btu g a s i f i c a t i o n

Table 11-2 Technical Spec 1f ice t ions Nuclear P o w r Plants

LWR Pu Recycle

I_

31

Efficiency %

Critical 0 Temperature C

@

320 205

S i n Hne

1

I

- 34 -

36

1535

PUR BUR

39

- 566@

755

0

0

430@

1100

0

- 40

330'

350

~

Uranium @ Utilization %

0.51

a

1.06

0.73 0.69

0.55

a.

Coolant o u t l e t temperatures

b.

0.25% T a i l s assay

0.95

Btu/Kg-U a t 100 % u t i l i z a t l o n 7.6 75% capacity Change o f

+/- .OS%

i n Taiis assay results i n a corresponding change

o f about +/- 10% i n the values l i s t e d f o r LWR and HTCR (11) C.

Topnumbers i n r o w base on y e a r l y load

d.

Bottomnumbers i n row base on

e.

San Onofre experiment 1970-1973

I n i t i a l core + ( y e a r l y load x 29)

30 (12)

f.

Clinch River Breeder Reactor (95)

9,

Projections i n W-1535 (6)

h.

Ref. 3 C 6

I.

F t . S t . Vraln Reactor

(185) 39

COSTS AN0 IHPACTS: DISCUSSION AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

CHAPTER 1 1 1

Introduction This chapter compares and c o n t r a s t s the e i g h t reference power systems. We have chosen t o discuss a few important costs and impacts i n each o f the f u e l c y c l e steps i n order t o i l l u s t r a t e t h e range o f u n c e r t a i n t i e c and t o explore the p o s s i b l e i m p l i c a t i o n s Appendices A

- H for

51

these u n r - r t a i n t i e s .

The reader i s r e f e r r e d t o

s p e c i f i c estimates of the economic, re.,urce,

environmental

and h e a l t h impacts of the e i g h t power systems. We have assigned i t o t a l primary e f f i c i e n c y t o each of the reference systems.

I f t h e eatal e f f i c i e n c y o f these f u e l cycles changes, t h e impacts a t

each of t h e 5ceps w i l l change as w e l l .

w i l l be e x a c t l y p r o p o r t i o n a l . Nil1 directly affect per Mw-yr.

For some types o f impacts t h e change

For example, a change i n power p l a n t e f f i c i e n c y

emissions a t t k e p l a n t and t h e amount of mining r e q u i r e d

However, some types o f impacts do not change i n a l i n e a r fashion

w i t h changes i n e f f i c i e n c y .

These types of impacts are a f u n c t i o n o f both the

e f f i c i e n c y and the s i z e o f Ir.c!;vidual

facilities.

For example, the land used

for a million-MT/yr mine i s l i o t e x a c t l y one h a l f of the land used a t a mine w i t h twice t h i s capacity. data, l a r g e variat:ons

However, there are s i g n i f i c a n t u n c e r t a i n t i e s i n the pub1 ished i n regional p r a c t i c e and a range in t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f

the technologies which a l l tend t o broaden the r m g e o f estimates f o r a p a r t i c u l a r cost

o r impact.

Except f o r c e r t a i n costs, we have n o t t r i e d t o c o r r e c t

f o r the s c a l i n g problems arld b e l i e v e t h a t the range o f estimates w i t h i n the f i n a l t a b l e s ( E .H) would span any changes due t o non-1 inear s c a l i n g .

For example, i f

a power p ant i s reported i n the l i t e r a t u r e t o have a power r a t i n g o f 1i)OO-M.Je an annual load f a c t o r o f 754; (L) and an emission o f xMT/yr, emi ss ions as x/LP o r x/750 per Mwe-yr.

(P),

we have reported the

I f the power p l a n t c o n s t r u c t i o n m a t e r i a l i s

y MT, then we have reported t h i s a a t e r i a l requirement as y/750 Mwe per 30 y r l i ' e t i m e (y/22500 Mwe-yr).

The d i f f e r e n c e i n these two examples i s t h a t the f i r s t i t e m i s

r e l a t i v e l y p r o p o r t i o n a l t o energy production, w h i l e the second

30 year l i f e t i m e o f the p l a n t .

40

ib

used once i n the

Costs and Resource U t i 1 i z a t i o n

III-A: I II - A - 1 :

Introduction (1) summarize the M j o r i m p l i c a t i o n s of the c o s t and

I n t h i s s e c t i o n we:

resource u t i 1 i z a t i o n data c o l lec;ed selected for study,

(2) explore the s e n s i t i v i t y of t h i s d a t a - - p a r t i c u l a r l y

e l e c t r i c generationcosts and

f o r the e i g h t e l e c t r i c generation systems

(3) r e p o r t on the R

-

t o changes i n the base case economic assumptions,

8 0 costs estimated to be required to b r i n g the selected

systems to commercial r e a l i z a t i o n .

f o r ease of exposition,

the present d i s -

cussion daes not enumerate a l l of the technical d e t a i l s and assumptions involved i n the data normalization process.

The i n t e r e s t e d reader may f i n d t h i s inform-

a t i o n as w e l l as a l l the basic d a t a i n the Appendix.ln c o l l e c t i n g these data each e l e c t r i c generation system was d i v i d e d i n t o f i v e general processing stages: harvesting f u e l s , upgrading f u e l s , t r a n s p o r t a t i o n o f f u e l s , conversion to e l e c t r i c i t y and management o f f i n a l waste.

The waste streams i n each o f these processin5

stages a r e a l s o accounted for i n a d d i t i o n t o f i n a l wastes.

It i s therefore possible t o

assess the economic and resource u t i l i z a t i o n impact a t each of these stages f o r each system as we11 as to compare a l t e r n a t i v e systems w i t h i n t h i s convenient framework.

The o b j e c t i v e of the s e n s i t i v i t y a n a l y s i s presented here i s not t o ex-

p l o r e the i m p l i c a t i o n s o f the e n t i r e range o f possible values f o r each economic parameter, but r a t h e r t o analyze the e f f e c t s o f changes i n the values o f a 1 i m i ted rlumber of parameters whose impact changes s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h i n a p l a u s i b l e

(according t o documented analysis by q u a l i f i e d experts) range o f p o s s i b l e values. Traditionally,

the major components o f the cost o f e l e c t r i c generation have

been f u e l cost, and power p l a n t c a p i t a l and 0 d M c o s t s . P m e r p l a n t e f f i c i e n c y , capacit) f a c t o r and s i t e , a s well as basic econorn c i n d i c a t o r s such a s the p r o j e c t e d i n f l a t i o n and i n t e r e s t r a t e s a r e a l s o r e evant. components i r t o a measure i n d i c a t i v e o f

Many ways o f combining these

he actual cost o f e l e c t r i c generation

4

have been proposed.

The method used t o accomplish t h i s task here was developed

a t the J e t P r o p u l s i o n Laboratory (JPL) and i s thought t o be t y p i c a l of t h e type

o f c a l c u l a t i o n made by e l e c t r i c u t i l i t i e s i n assessing t h e economic m e r i t s o f a l t e r n a t i v e e l e c t r i c - p o w e r g e n e r a t i o n systems and t h e r e f o r e a p p r o p r i a t e for assessing t h e commercial competitiveness o f these technologies.

D e t a i l s on

the methods o f c a l c u l a t i o n a r e l e f t for the Appendix and the j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r i t to Ref.

(28).

Although t h e terms i n f l a t i o n and e s c a l a t i o n have been d e f i n e d i n ways by v a r i o u s authors,

different

i n t h i s r e p o r t i n f l a t i o n i s d e f i n e d as the r a t e o f

increase i n the o v e r a l l p r i c e l e v e l i n the economy (as perhaps b e s t i n d i c a t e d by ivcreases i n t h e consumers p r i c e index), w h i l e e s c a l a t i o n i n a p a r t i c u l a r i n d u s t r y r e f e r s t o the r a t e of increase i n t h e p r i c e l e v e l i n t h a t i n d u s t r y o v e r and above the o v e r a l l i n f l a t i o n r a t e i n t h e economy.

I n the present

a p p l i c a t i o n , f o r the base case, c o s t s a r e c a l c u l a t e d i n l e v e l i z e d mid-1974 d o l l a r s ( t h e term " I e v e l i z e d "

r e f e r s t o the f a c t t h a t c a p i t a l , 0 8 M and f u e l

c o s t s a r e i n p u t i n mid-I974 d o l l a r s , b u t t h a t t h e e f f e c t o f long range i n f l a t i o n

on these c o s t s i s considered) f o r i n i t i a l commercial o p r r a t i o n i n about 1990. This i s done by p r o j e c t i n g e s c a l a t i o n f r o m t h e r e l a t i v e l y easy t o i d e n t i f y sources, and assuming t h a t no e s c a l a t i o n i n o t h e r p o r t i o n s of the e l e c t r i c - p o w e r

w i l l occur.

As t h e e l e c t r i c - p o w e r

industry

i n d u s t r y has r e c e n t l y experienced s i g n i f i c a n t

e s c a l a t i o n from n o n - a n t i c i p a t e d sources, a l t e r n a t i v e e s c a l a t i o n assumptions a r e i n c l u d e d i n our s e n s i t i v i t y a n a l y s i s .

To a i d i n p r o j e c t i n g e s c a l a t i o n i n the e l e c t r i c - p o w e r i n d u s t r y , d a t a on the c o s t of b u i l d i n g and o p e r a t i n g new energy f a c i l i t i e s ( a t each f u e l conversion stagelhave been c o l l e c t e d .

C o n s t r u c t i o n manpower requirements f o r these f a c i 1 -

i t i e s were also compiled according t o f o u r general c a t e g o r i e s d e f i n e d i n a recent study by the Bechtel C o r p o r a t i o n (8), while o p e r a t i o n a l manpower requirements

42

An attempt was a l s o made t o assess the e f f i c i e n c y

were completely aggregated.

o f resource u t i l i z a t i o n a t each stage cf each e l e c t r i c - g e n e r a t i o n system.

Data

on non-primary f u e l energy requirements a t each stage were a l s o compiled.

Con-

s t r u c t i o n m a t e r i a l requirements were c o l l e c t e d f o r f i v e major categories defined i n the Bechtel study (8), as were m a t e r i a l s requirements necessary f o r operating s u l f u r removal systems f o r the coal f u e l e d options. use were considered:

(1)

land temporarily committed and d i s t u r b e d f o r the

useful l i f e of the f a c i l i t y , and

(3)

Three categories of land

(2)

land permanently committed

land temporarily committed, bu* undisturbed (i.9

:lot reclaimable even a f t e r the end

the useful service l i f e o f the f a c i l i t y under c u r r e n t economic c o n d i t i o n s ) . F i n a l l y , the q u a n t i t y o f water consumed (only water t h a t i s evaporated and therefore no longer assured o f a v a i l a b i 1 it y t o the l o c a l water t a b l e was considered) was c o l l e c t e d . The next f i v e subsections r e p o r t on the s i g n i f i c a n t resource u t i l i z a t i o n s and economic sensi t i v i t i e s of each conversion stage, w h i l e w i t h some m u l t i p l e s e n s i t i v i t y analyses.

subsection

7 deals

F i n a l l y , sdbsection 8 tabulates some

estimated R & D requirements for the c o m n e r c i a l i z a t i o n of the a l t e r n a t i v e elect r ic-power generat i o n sys tems.

43

I I I -A-2 : Harvesting Fuels Although a l l f o u r o f the r e a c t o r concepts considered i n t h i s r e p o r t r e q u i r e n a t u r a l uranium (U 0

38

systems.

the amounts u t i l i z e d vary s i g n i f i c a n t l y among the v a r i o u s

The biggest consumer i s the LWR, f o r which about 154 MT o f U 0

38

must

be mined and m i l l e d for each r e a c t o r year (a 100@Mwe r e a c t o r o p e r a t i n g a t capacity f a c t o r f o r one year).

A LWR w i t h Pu r e c y c l e r e q u i r e s about

75%

80%o f

t h i s amount, a HTGR, a l i t t l e more than h a l f and a LMFBR l e s s than 1% ( a c t a a l l y f o r t h e f i r s t LMFBRs no uranium would be mined, as the accumulated enrichment t a i l s from LWR f u e l processing would be used as t h e source o f f e r t i l e material).

The U t i l i z a t i o n by a given r e a c t o r type o f nonfuel

resources,such as chemicals f o r m i l l i n g uranium or manpower,during

t h e har-

v e s t i n g o f f u e l s stage i s roughly p r o p o r t i o n a l t o i t s r e l a t i v e annual uranium requirement (although the HTGR r e q u i r e s the mining o f a small amount o f thorium). Even f o r LWRs, though, the amount o f nonfuel resource consumption f o r mining and m i l l i n g uranium i s very s m a l l - - t y p i c a l l y l e s s than 1%--of the resource u t i l i z a t i o n a t the power p l a n t , except f o r land use (i.e.,

landdisturbed

by the surface mining o f uranium) and o p e r a t i o n a l manpower (e.g., t o e x t r a c t uranium and various mine a d m i n i s t r a t i v e personnel). LWR the cost o f mining U 0

38

miners r e q u i r e d Further, f o r a

i s o n l y roughly 25% o f the t o t a l f u e l c y c l e c o s t ,

which i s i t s e l f o n l y about 30% o f the c o s t o f producing e l e c t r i c i t y w i t h LWRs. Per u n i t o f e l e c t r i c a l output, nonfuel resource u t i l i z a t o n f o r the mining o f coal f o r use i n the coal-based systems considered here i s a s i g n i f i c a n t f r a c t i o n ( u s u a l l y > l o % )o f the nonfuel resource u t i l i z a t i o n a t the power p l a n t i t s e l f . Land use and o p e r a t i o n a l and maintenance personnel are, again, the most s i g n i f i cant nonfuel resource uses associated w i t h mining, w i t h about 2400 square m e t e r s a f f e c t e d by subsidence and 1600 man-hours required t o mine the coal necessary t o produce one megawatt-year o f e l e c t r i c i t y f o r the base case ( f o r w h i c h coal i s

44

obtained from Northern Appalachian underground mines). coal obtained from Northwestern surface mines, o n l y

I89

A1 t e r n a t i v e l y , were t h e man-hours would be r e q u i r e d

t o do the mining, and over 1700 square meters o f land would be disrupted.

The cost

o f mtning coal c u r r e n t l y makes up around 2/3rds o f t h e p r i c e e l e c t r i c u t i l i t i e s pay for i t ( t h e remaining percentage being a t t r i b u t a b l e t o c l e a n i n g and t r a n s p o r t ) . As the cost of coal i s about 50% o f the c o s t of producing e l e c t r i c i t y from i t , e l e c t r i c i t y cost i s very s e n s i t i v e t o coal cost for these systems. For our base case o f Outer Continental Shelf (OCS)

production, o i l e x t r a c t i o n

required a s i g n i f i c a n t committment of nonfuel resources such as s t e e l for p l a t form, piping, and manpower.

Residual f u e l o i l (RFO)

t h a t can be obtained from crude o i l .

i s o n l y one o f many products

T h i s complicates eny attempt t o assign par-

t i c u l a r resource u t i l i z a t i o n s t o s p e c i f i c r e f i n e r y products.

This problem was

d e a l t w i t h by c a l c u l a t i n g nonfuel resource u t i l i z a t i o n s as i f t h e e n t i r e r e f i n e r y output were RFO. The c o n t r i b u t i o n of the cost of raw f u e l m a t e r i a l t o t h e o v e r a l l cost o f e l e c t r i c i t y generation i s greatest f o r the r e s i d u a l fuel o i l system, l e s s f o r the coal s*'stems and l e a s t f o r the nuclear systems.

The land use f o r t h e e x t r a c t i o n o f

the three types o f n a t u r a l resources a r e a l s o orders o f magnitude d i f f e r e n t , w i t h o i l (from the OCS) r e q u i r i n g a n e g l i g i b l e amount o f land disturbance ( i f t h e i n d i r e c t impact

n the sea shore from s p i l l s and a e s t h e t i c s a r e ignored). Surface

mining o f uranium i s a s i g n i f i c a n t p o r t i o n of the nuclear system land committment, but i s s t i l l o n l y about 5-10b o f t h a t d i s t u r b e d by the amount o f surface mining o f coa 1 required t o produce an equivalent amount of e l e c t r i c i t y . Although the c o n t r i b u t i o n of the cost o f uranium ore t o the cost o f nuclear powe

generation i s n o t , i n general, g r e a t r e a t i v e t o f o s s i l f u e l costs, i t i s

a c r t i c a l f a c t o r i n determining the r e l a t i v e economics o f the nuclear a l t e r n a -

t i v e s (see e.g.,

Derian and Bupp, (Ref. ( 1 7 7 ) ) .

further,^ nce the p r i c e s o f coal

and RFO are s i g n i f i c a n t c o n t r i b u t o r s t o the cost o f operat ng the f o s s i 1-fueled

e l e c t r i c a l generation systems, an a n a l y s i s of t h e s e n s i t i v i t y o f a l l t h e systems t o t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e raw f u e l costs was performed and the r e s u l t s o f t h i s a n a l y s i s a r e tabulated i n Table i l l - A - I .

The base case U 0

3 8

b i n i n g curre1.t ERDA assessment o f U 0

3 8

p r i c e was determined by com-

a v a i l a b i l i t y , w i t h c u r r e n t estimates o f the

r a t e o f b u i l d u p of nuclear generating capactty.

The U 0

3 8

(yellowcake) i n i t i a l p r i c e

i s 14$/lb i n mid-1974 d o l l a r s , a n d escalated as shown i n Table E l (note i ) . low p r i c e case uses a more o p t i m i s t i c p r o j e c t i o n of U 0

3 8

availability,

The

while the

h i g h p r i c e case uses a l e s s o p t i m i s t i c p r o j e c t i o n . The base case coal and o i l p r i c e s a r e the c u r r e n t p r i c e s p a i d by e l e c t r i c u t i l i t i e s f o r these fuels.

The low coal case i s based on the cost of coal pro-

d u c t i o n from new mines estimated by t h e Bureau of Mines ( t h e so-called marginal c o s t o f mining c o a l ) , w h i l e the h i g h p r i c e case represents e s c a l a t i o n ( g r e a t e r than general i n f l a t i o n ) o f the p r i c e of coal by 3% per year.

The p r i c e of

coal doubled from mid-1973 t o 1974 and escalated over 20% d u r i n g the seconu h a l f o f 1974, a t r e n d t h a t simply cannot continue.

This e s c a l a t i o n i s based

on the cost o f coal i n a I ' i q u e f a c t i o n based economy toward the end of the cen t u r y

.

The $7.00/barrel f.0.b.

p r i c e o f RFO (which corresponds roughly t o a $5.50/barrel

Pers an Gu f p r i c e ) i s based on what i s thought by many t o be t h e eventual

OPEC c a r t e l world o i l p r i c e .

The base RFO i s $12/barrel and i s c u r r e n t OPEC

price.

46

Table I l l - A - 1 :

Sensitivity o f Electric Generation Costs t o Fuel Price Numbers given are e l e c t r i c generation costs i n levelized

-

mid-1974 rniIls/KwHe, but r e f l e c t projected conditions i n the 1990 e l e c t r i c power industry. nBtu million Btu

Fuel Price

RFP

Coal@

-

Sys tern

LOW

Base

SSentu

83.mBtu

Hi h S l d t u

Coal -Scrub

26.6

31 - 7

40.7

FlulditedBed

21 .g

27.1

36.1

Low-Btu/ Combined C y c l e

25.8

30.9

39.9

LOW

S1.177Fbtu

31.8

RFO

Base

Sl.937RRtu

Low -

Base

43.2

J

1UWR

20.6

22.7

26.7

LWR-PU

19.9

21.3

24.6

LWBR

21.9

21.7

21.1

HTGR

19.7

20.7

23.0

47

NOTES: a.

Table III - A - l

the base case coal p r i c e represents t h e December, 1974, average p a i o by the e l e c t r i c u t i l i t i e s i n mid-1974 d o l l a r s .

Ref.

(31)

The h i g h coal p r i c e repre-

sents e s c a l a t i o n greater than general i n f l a t i o n i n t h e base-case coal p r i c e a t 3% per year u n t i l 1990. the

3% e s c a l a t i o n

T h i s produces an increase o f 1.6 times t h e coal p r i c e when

i s maintained u n t i l 1990,and i s collapsed t o mid-1974 d o l l a r s .

p r i c e i s based on recent Bureau o f Mines estimates of the marginal

The low coa

cost o f min ng coal from

new n i n e s (Ref. (57) and (60)).

I t i s assumed t h a t

h a l f o f the coal i s mined i n underground mines a t $9.82/ton Adding t h e

( i n mid-1974 d o l l a r s ) .

o s t of t r a n s p o r t by improved methods (see Section I I I-A.4

for a

discussion o f cost of t r a n s p o r t ) and cleaning costs,

i t i. assumed t h a t t h i s

coal can be bought by power p l a n t s f o r $12.00 a ton.

The o t h e r h a l f of t h e

coal i s assumed t o come f r i m l a r g e Northwestern s t r i p mines a t $3.24/ton.

It

I s f u r t h e r assumed t n a t not 311 of t h i s coal can be consumed i n the West, so t h a t long haul t r a n s p o r t t o the East i s necessary.

The t o t a l average p r i c e

p a i d by u t i l i t i e s f o r t h f s Western coal i s , therefore,

assumed t o be $8.00/ton.

The deep mine coal (mostly Eastern) i s assumed t o have a h e a t i n g value of 12,00O/Btu/lb.,

8,000 Btu/lb.,

w h i l e t h e Western coal i s assumed t o have a h e a t i n g value which y i e l d s a n a t i o n a l average coal p r i c e o f 55c/M Btu.

0:

It

i s hard t o imagine a lower average coal p r i c e than t h i s i n 1990. b.

The base case RFO p r i c e represents the average December, 1974. p r i c e p a i d by The low p r i c e represents the

u t i l i t i e s f o r RFO adjusted t o mid-1974 " o l l a r s . estimated OPEC c a r t e l p r i c e o f about $7.00/barrel

(see e.g.,

R e f . (229) and

(230) c.

The cumulative demands f o r U 0

3 8

f o r a l l those U 0

3 8

p r i c e scenarios vere

derived from the case D scenario given on page 53 o f Ref.

48

(1 1), assuming

a t a i l s assay o f 0.25%. be the cvmulative U 0

3 8

For the LWR case i t was assumed t h a t these would denands.

Although delays and c a n c e l l a t i o n of nuclear

power p l a n t c o n s t r u c t i o n have occurred since the formulation of t h i s p a r t i c u l a r scenario, the LWR case does not assume PU recycle, which o f f s e t s the decreased demands due t o c a n c e l l a t i o n s .

For the LWR-Pu, LMFBR and

HTGR systems, however, the scenario 0 cumulative U 0

38

demand p r o j e c t i o n s

a r e d i - c .doted 20% due t o detays and c a n c e l l a t i o n s of nuclear power p l a n t construction. The U 0

3 8

a v a i l a b i l i t y scenarios assumed f o r the base case were d e r i v e d

from the U 0

3 8

a v a i l a b i l i t y data given on page

3 of

Ref.

(176).

I t was

assvmed t h a t a1 1 the k n o m reserves and estilnated a d d i t i o n a l r.?serves could be produced on a t i m e l y basis a t the p r i c e s yiven and f u r t h e r t h a t the p r i c e o f U 0

3 8

would s t a b i l i z e a t around the year 2000 due e i t h e r t o

the discovery o f considerable a d d i t i o n a l low c o s t resources, as Ref.

(145),

(159) and (232) imply may be p l a u s i b l e , o r t o the s i g n i f i c a n t commercializat i o n o f Breeder Reactors ( o f

CWI

s e , the non-exi stence of add i t i o w i

reserves would make the case f o r the Breeder stronger). were derived by i n t e r f a c i n g appropriate U 0

3 8

U 0

38

prices

demand and a v a i l a b i l i t y

scenarios f o r a modei r e a c t o r beginning commercial o p e r a t i o n i n 1990 operating f o r 30 years.

t..I.

A more d e t a i l e d c a l c u l a t i o n of t h e low, base and h i g h

nuclear e l e c t r i c costs a r e shown b e l o d f o r a 1000 MWe p l a n t f o r 30 yea; a I990 p l a n t s t a r t u p .

l i f e and

A l l costs a r e i n m i l l i o n s o f l e v e l i z e d mid-1974 d o l l a r s .

D e t a i l s on how the p r i c e data were incorporated i n t o t h e cost of e l e c t r i c generat i o n are included i n footnotes t o Tables E - l ,

*See page 49a.

49

F - l , G-l and H - l o f the Appendices.

Undiscounted Carrying Undlrcounted

Year of h n t ,f Unit Charge Cost of 1st Operation bterial(Elf/yr) W l b U.Oe Year lnterva

P

Time (Years)

0

Total cost of 1st Interval Year I n t e r v e p Cost

-

Low W E :

4b2 185 154 154

Initial Core 2.3 4.5 6-10 11-31

?U

IO

10 i2

16 16

1 9

-442

Fino1 Core

9.72 4.05 3.36 4.02 5. 32

-15.;

10.48 4.21 3- S I 4.19 5.53 -16.0

1.75 1.O 1 .o 1 .O 1 .o

1-75

Tota 1

10.48 7.9 6.06 17.2 54.6 -4.38 92

-

BaSE CASE:

27 45 45

12.6 5.7 4.74 9.14 15.2 -43.7

13.6 5.94 4.911 9.53 15.8 -45.6

I n i t i a l Core

18

17.4

"3

27

11.0

27 54

9. I S 18.28 33.8 -97.01

18.8 11.46 9- 53 19.06 35.32

13 14

I n i t i a l Core

2.3

4.5 6-10 11-31

14

SI

Final Core

13.6 11.16 8.53 39- 0 156.0 -12.5

Total

216

HIGH CASE:

4.5

I:

6-10

11-31

100 100

Final Core

I1

18.77 21.54

16.46 78.0 343 2 -27.75

-101.2 Total

SUMMARY:

-

Total Cost

Case

$106

Low Base High

216

92

450

-

NOTES :

1. 2.

No carrying charge Ipciudes carrying charge of 4.25%

Fuel Cost (mi 1 1 s/kWhe)

1-55 3.64 7.61

Total Fuel Cycle Cost (mi 11 s/kWhe)

5.61 7.7 11.67

450.2

I11-8-3:

Upgrading Fuels

I n the future,

the p r o p o - t i o n of p h y s i c a l l y cleaned coal used i n t h e e l e c t r i c

u t i l i t y i n d u s t r y i s l i k e l y to increase from i t s present l e v e l of between one-half

to t w o - t h i r d s as l o w s u l f u r coal i s used up and environmental standards become stricter.

However, t h e average c o n t r i b u t i o n o f the cost of cleaning coal to t h e

cost of e l e c t r i c generation by the coal-based systems i s c u r r e n t l y o n l y about 2%; thus, even i f a l l the coal used i n e l e c t r i c generation were to be cleaned, t h e r e s u l t a n t impact-on the c o s t of e l e c t r i c generation by coal would n o t be great. Advanced non-physical coal cleaning techniques such as benefaction and p y r o l y s i s (see

e.~-,Ref. (26)) may see widespread use i n the future.

These processes remove

a g r e a t e r p r o p o r t i o n of t h e s u l f u r i n t h e coal than physicai cleaning, but a r e a l s o more exsensive.

These approaches would be l e s s a t t r a c t i v e than f l u i d i z e d bed and

coal g a s i f i c a t i o n techniques, which a r e discussed i n s e c t i o n When crude o i l i s r e f i n e d , several products,

including

Ill-A-5.

RFO, are produced.

O i l r e f i n i n g i s a mature technology and i t i s u n l i k e l y t h a t technological advances i n t h i s i n d u s t r y w i l l have a s i g n i f i c a n t impact on the p r i c e o f e l e c t r i c generation

from RFO.

RFO i s a c t u a l l y a by-product o f the r e f i n i n g process.

That i s , the

o t h e r products produced a t the r e f i n e r y a r e more valuable,and hence much e f f o r t i s devoted t o producing more o f them and less

RFO than obtained a f t e r atmospheric

d i s t i l l a t i o n . (This i s the f i r s t major step i n o i l r e f i n i n g and involves s p l i t t i n g crude i n t o i t s "natural"

constituents.)

a r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e commitment

Refinery operations r e q u i r e

o f non-fuel resources, o f t e n as s i g n i f i c a n t as

t h a t a t the power p l a n t i t s e l f , and use about 92% o f the a n c i l l a r y energy requirements of the

RFO f u e l cycles.

The upgrading o f nuclear f u e l s i s q u i t e complex and t y p i c a l l y involves a number o f steps; most o f these a r e used i n the preparation of f u e l s f o r the d i f f e r e n t

r e a c t o r types.

O f the r e a c t o r systems considered, a l l b u t t h e LEOFBR system

r e q u i r e e n r i c h 4 uranium, and for these systems i t i s the enrichment step t h a t d m i n a t e s a l l t h e other upgrading steps i n t e r n of c o s t and resource u t i l i z a t i o n .

For an LWR, about 102 ?IT o f separative work Is r e q u i r e d for an annual reload. Both the LWR-Pu and HTGR (which requires less U 0

38

feed, b u t more separative

work per pound of fuel to produce) r e q u i r e about 80%of the separative work requirement of the LWi4 system.

For a n LWR, the c o s t of upgrading f u e l s i s tcljghly

equivalent to tha c o s t o f harvesting f u e l s and resource u t i l i z a t i o n s are t y p i c a l l y

w i t h i n an order of magnitude of those a t the power p l a n t i t s e l f .

About 95% of

the a n c i l l a r y energy required for t h e LWR system i s used f o r uranium enrichment. This amount o f energy represents about plant.

4.8% of

t h e energy output of t h e LWR power

The major cost component of the upgrading o f f u e l s f o r the LMFBR i s the

f a b r i c a t i o n o f mixed oxide (HOx) f u e l elements, but as the c o s t o f upgrading f u e l s f o r t h i s system c o n t r i b u t e s o n l y about

7% t o the c o s t of e l e c t r i c generation, the

s e n s i t i v i t y of generation c o s t s to f a b r i c a t i o n c o s t s i s not great.

The amount of U 0

feed t h a t i s required for a r e a c t o r t h a t u t i l i z e s enriched

38

uranium i s s e n s i t i v e t o the t a i l s assay used a t t h e enrichment p l a n t . the t a i l s assay the l e s s feed required.

The lower

However, a lower t a i l s assay r e q u i r e s a

greater amount of separative work to o b t a i n a s p e c i f i e d f r e s h f u e l assay. Consequently, f o r any U 0

3 8

minimizing t a i l s assay.

c o s t and separative work charge there e x i s t s a c o s t -

(See Ref ( 6 ) for some p l o t s of these r e l a t i o n s h i p s . )

I n t h i s r e p o r t a t a i l s assay of 0.25% i s assumed.

A t the present t i m e a move

f r o m the c u r r e n t l y p r e v a i l i n g 0.20% t a i l s assay to a t a i l s assay of 0.275% i s

being contemplated (see

2.s

Refs. (154) and (155));

i r r a t i o n a l i n view o f c u r r e n t U 0

3 8

p r i c e escalation.

t h i s change seems somewhat For the enriched-uranium

reactors considered here, a change i n t a i l s assay from 0.259: t o 0.30% r e q u i r e s t h a t about 10% more U 0

3 8

be mined and about 10% less separative work be performed, w h i l e

a decrease i n t a i l s assay from 0.25% t o 0.30% reverses these s e n s i t i v i t i e s .

51

The c u r r e n t l y employed method of i s o t o p i c separation gaseous d i f f u s i o n (Ref. (154)). c e n t r i f u g e (Ref.

(21) pg.

(1.5enrichment)

is

However, research i s under way on Both the

48) and

l a s e r (Ref (156)) methods.

Both of these

methods can p o t e n t i a l l y decrease enrichment power requirements by an o r d e r of magnitude or more, b u t i t i s conceivable t h a t the increased c a p i t a l expenditures t h a t may be associated w i t h these methods would wipe o u t a l l o r p a r t o f t h e i r opera t ing c o s t advantage. A c o s t parameter wh!ch can p o t e n t i a l y have a s i g n i f i c a n t impact on the

economics o f

t k LMFBR system i s the p r i c e of plutonium.

assumed to d e r i v e i t s value as a replacement f u e l i n LWRs.

Ire the case h p p (Ref.

, depending

This would probably

However, as pointed o u t by Derian and

n an i n f a n t breeder economy.

( 77))

In t h i s report, Pu i s

on t h e r e l a t i v e c a p i t a l c o s t s of LWRs and LMFBRs,

e i t h e r a LWR and LWR-Pu o r a LWR and LMFBR r e a c t o r economy would emerge as medium-term market e q u i l i b r i a , and the value o f Pu would a d j u s t so as to e q u i l ib r a t e the p r i c e of e l e c t r i c generation tor the two reactors i n the l e a s t - c o s t combination.

However i n t h e long run, i f LflFBR capacity i s expanded r a p i d l y , the

p r i c e o f Pu c o u l d be d r i v e n to zero, depending on the r a t e of growth of e l e c t r i c generation capacity.

However, i n comparing reactors i n the time frame selected

f o r t h i s study, we b e l i e v e our approach t o Pu v a l u a t i o n , t y i n g the value of Pu t o the p r i c e o f U 0

38

and separative work, i s j u s t i f i e d .

See Table l l l - A - 4

f o r a summary of nuclear fuel c y c l e costs.

52

II I-A-4:

t r a n s p o r t o f Fuel s

The c o s t o f e l e c t r i c generation by aoy of our study systems seems to be r e l a t i v e l y r n s e n s i t i v e t o the c o s t of fuel t r a n s - w t .

Even for the coal-based

systems where the c o n t r i b u t i o n o f the c o s t of fuel t r a n s p o r t to the c o s t of e l e c t r i c generation i s the greatest,

transport c o s t s represent o n l y about 10

o f the t o t a l c o s t of e l e c t r i c generation.

-

15%

Any move towards increased use o f wes-

t e r n coal to s a t i s f y eastern e l e c t r i c demands would, o f course,

increase t h e

average c o s t of coal transport (or perhaps o f e l e c t r i c transmission if t h i s turns o u t to be the m r e economical means of energy t r a n s p o r t over long distances). I t i s hard to imagine, however, t h a t the c o s t of coal t r a n s p o r t would more than

double on a n a t i o n a l average basis, e s p e c i a l l y i n view of some o f the newer methods f o r coal t r a n s p o r t (i.e.,

u n i t t r a i n s and coal

s l u r r y p i p e l ines).

Further, even i f the average cost of coal t r a n s p o r t doubled from i t s c u r r e n t l e v e l of $4.50/ton

t o $g.OO/ton,

the c o s t of e l e c t r i c generation for the c o a l -

based systems would increase by o n l y 10 Oil

-

12%.

transport i s even cheaper than coal t r a n s p o r t ; since the c u r r e n t t o t a l

c o s t o f o i l t o e l e c t r i c u t i l i t i e s i s more than double the c u r r e n t cost of coal and t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p

i s not l i k e l y t o change i n the near f u t u r e (see Section 2

above), the c o s t o f e l e c t r i c generation by RFO i s even l e s s s e n s i t i v e t o f u e l trafisport cost than f o r the coal -based systems. F i n a l l y , since transport o f nuclear f u e l s represents less than 10% o f the nuclear-fuel cost t o e l e c t r i c u t i l i t i e s , and since the cost o f these f u e l s represent a t most 30% of the cost o f e l e c t r i c generation by the nuclear s y s t e r , the s e n s i t i v i t y of generation costs t o the cost o f fuel t r a n s p o r t i s n e g l i g i b l e f o r nuc 1 ear power generation.

53

I11-8-5:

Conversion to E l e c t r i c i t y

The costs and resource U t i l i z a t i o n s associated w t t h the conversion to e l e c t r i c i t y step represent q u a n t i t i e s a t t r i b u t a b l e

to power p l a n t c o n s t r u c t i o n

and o p e r a t i o n and a r e s i g n i f i c a n t for a l l o f the systems studied.

I n fact,

for

the nuclear p l a n t s the non-fuel c o s t s o f e l e c t r i c generation (which occur p r i m a r i l y a t the power p l a n t ) range from about 67%of t o t a l generation c o s t s for the

LWR system to over 90% f o r the LMFBR system.

S i m i l a r l y , except f o r land use,

resource u t i 1 i t a t i o n s for the nuclear power generation systems are dominated by those occuring a t the power p l a n t . For the coal-based systems, about h a l f of the costs o f e l e c t r i c generation a r e non-fuel expenditures and, i n c o n t r a s t to the nuclear systems, non-fuel resource u t i l i z a t i o n necessary f o r the harvesting o f f u e l s and t r a n s p o r t of f u e l s are comparable w i t h those required a t the power p l a n t . Due to the h i g h r e l a t i v e cost of crude o i l , the c o n t r i b u t i o n o f non-fuel costs to e l e c t r i c generation cost i s l e a s t for the RFO system, a t o n l y about

20%. Further, resource requirements f o r the harvesting ( e x t r a c t i o n )

, upgrading

( r e f i n i n g ) and t r a n s p o r t o f these f u e l s a r e comparable w i t h those required a t the power p l a n t i t s e l f . I n view o f the above discussion i t i s n o t s u r p r i s i n g

t o f i n d t h a t the c o s t s

and resource u t i l i z a t i o n s f o r nuclear power p l a n t s are, i n general, g r e a t e r than those f o r coal-based power p l a n t s , which are more than those f o r o i l - f i r e d power plants.

I n f a c t , even the most expensive coal-based p l a n t ( t h e coal-gas/

combined-cycle p l a n t ) costs about 5% less than t h e cheapest nuclear p l a n t ( t h e LWR) t o bui 16, w h i l e the cheapest coal-based system (the f l u i d i z e d - b e d system) costs about 45% less than the most expensive nuclear system ( t h e LMFBR) t o b u i l d .

54

The fluidized-bed system

seems to i n v o l v e about 251% l e s s c a p i t a l expense than

the o t h e r two coal-bas4 systems, w h i l e among the nuclear systems, the LHFBR i s p r o j e c t e d to cost a b u t 30% more than e i t h e r an LWR or HTGR to bui Id.

As f a r as t o t a l e l e c t r i c generation c o s t s a r e concerned, the h i g h p r i c e of coal and R F O y i e l d e l e c t r i c generation c o s t s for these systems t h a t a r e s i g n i f i c a n t l y higher than for the nuclear systems.

I n f a c t , even for the coal-based

system w i t h the lowest p r o j e c t e d generation c o s t (the f l u i d i z e d - b e d system a t

27.1 mills/Kwtk),

the e l e c t r i c generation c o s t exceeds t h a t for the most expensive

nuclear system (the LWR a t 22.7 mills/KwHe),

by about 20%.

Further, the c u r r e n t

p r i c e of RFO makes the e l e c t r i c generation cost (42.5 milldKwHe), almost double t h a t f o r the LWR for the base case. I n the time f r m e s p e c i f i e d f o r t h i s study t h e f l u i d zed-bed system seems t o

be the cheapest coal-based e l e c t r i c generation scheme, wh l e the HTGR seems to be (marginally) the cheapest

nuclear generation scheme.

(These conlusions are,

however, s e n s i t i v e t o the assumptions made and could l i k e ’ v change as we move i n t o the next century, e.g.

h i g h e f f i c i e n c y combined-cycle systems, thought t o

be t e c h n i c a l l y f e a s i b l e , could make the coal-gadcombined-cycle system the best coal-based candidate a t about the t u r n o f the century. The coal-scrub system r e q u i r e s a temporarily d i s t u r b e d land commitment about

50 times greater than t h a t for a nuclear p l a n t , but the t o t a l temporarily committed area i s o n l y about twice as b i g , due t o the s i z a b l e e x c l u s i o n areas r e q u i r e d f o r the nuclear p l a n t s .

A d d i t i o n a l l y , a s i g n i f i c a n t permanent commitment o f land i s

l i k e l y to be a t t r i b u t e d t o the nuclear p l a n t s due t o r a d i o a c t i v e contamination. A l a r g e p a r t of the water consumption f o r each o f our study systems occurs a t the power p l a n t i t s e l f .

This water i s evaporzted i n n a t u r a l d r a f t cooling towers

(our assumed power p l a n t c o o l i n g technologyj.

55

f o r the f o s s i l systems a s u b s t a n t i a l

amount of waste heat i s discharged w i t h the f l u e gas, so t h a t less c o o l i n g water

i s required as a heat s i n k than for the nuclear systems.

For those nuclear systems

LMFBR and HTGR) the consumptive water

w i t h g r e a t e r thermal e f f i c i e n c i e s (e.g.

use i s somewhat less than f o r those w i t h lower thermal e f f i c i e n c i e s

(s LWR

and La-Pu). Since the non-fuel c o s t s o f e l e c t r i c generation (which a r e i n c u r r e d p r i m a r i l y a t the power p l a n t ) a r e s i g n i f i c a n t f o r a l l the systems studied and many o f the values w e have assumed f o r economic parameters a r e l i k e l y t o be q u i t e controvers i a l , we w i l l now describe a number o f economic s e n s i t i v i t y

analyses.

What the f u t u r e c a p i t a l c o s t for e l e c t r i c power p l a n t s w i l l be i s a most c o n t r o v e r s i a l issue.

A t the same time the AEC was p r o j e c t i n g l a r g e decreases i n

per k i l l o w a t - e l e c t r i c i n s t a l l e d cost f o r nuclear power p l a n t s due t o economies o f scale and l e a r n i n g e f f e c t s (see Bupp (Ref.

c.g.

References (6) and (3911, Derian and

(169)) were t a b u l a t i n g d a t a which seemed t o show t h a t the c o s t o f

b u i l d i n g nuclear power p l a n t s i n constant 1973 d o l l a r s has been increasing a t a r a t e o f about $20

-

$3O/Kwe per year above the r a t e o f increase i n the p r i c e

index f o r steam-electric power p l a n t c o n s t r u c t i o n , which has i t s e l f been i n creasing a t a g r e a t o r r a t e than the i n f l a t i o n r a t e i n the o v e r a l l economy (see Ref. and

Ref. (232) f o r a c r i t i q u e o f the AEC r e a c t o r c o n s t r u c t i o n cost p r o j e c t i o n ) .

The imp1 i c a t i o n s o f continued e s c a l a t i o n i n power p l a n t c o n s t r u c t i o n costs are explored i n l a b l e Ill-A-2. Recently, another f a c t o r besides increasing c a p i t a l costs has led people t o que t i o n the economic advantage t h a t i s u s u a l l y claimed f o r nuclear power. s em nal

d e t e c t i v e work o f Comey (see

e.g.R e f . ( 1 4 9 ) - ( 53))

The

has l e d t o the

rea i z a t i o n t h a t nuclear power p l a n t s are today 6 L s s re i a b l e than t h e i r c o s s i l -

f ue ed counterparts.

I n Table I l l - A - 3 we summarize the impact on f u t u r e genera-

56

(39)

111

c a P

-

0

c

c

-I

U

u (I)

w

Y

I

LI

3 3

-

0

Table III-A-3:

Sensl t i v i t y crf Electric Generation Costs t o

Caoac it y Factor The capacity f a c t o r i s defined (as i n Ref. (149)) as the a c t u a l output of the power p l a n t per year d i v i d e d by the output t h a t woJld o b t a i n i f the p l a n t were t o produce e l e c t r i c i t y a t i t s maximum r a t e d capacity throughout the Numbers given i n the body of the t a b l e are e l e c t r i c year. generation costs i n l e v e l i z e d mid-1974 mills/KwHe.

Capacity Factor Base

H i stor ica

75%

System

Fossi 1 = 62%

P

-

Nuclear = 55%

Coal -Scrub

31.7

35.2

--

Fluidized-Bed

27.1

29.6

--

Coal-Gas/C-C.

30.9

34.2

RFO

43.2

45.4

---

N U

LWR

22.7

--

28.2

C L E A R

LWR-Bu

21.3

LMFBR

21.7

---

HTGR

20.7

--

a.

From Ref.

F 0 S S

I L

(149).

58

26.8 28.6 26.2

t i o n c o s t s o f t h e c o n t i n u a t i o n o f h i s t o r i c a l annual load f a c t o r s ( a c t u a l l y Comey c a l l s these 'Slant capacity f a c t o r s

'I

which r e f e r to the a c t u a l output o f the p l a n t

for the year as a percentage of the o u t p u t t h a t w u l d be produced i f the system were to produce a t i t s maximum design c a p a c i t y throughout the year).

A t h i r d set of parameters which could w e l l e f f e c t r e l a t i v e power p l a n t The o n l y

economies i n the f u t u r e a r e the power p l a n t thermal e f f i c i e n c i e s .

system studied which has the p o t e n t i a 1 f o r s i g n i f i c a n t increase i n thermal e f f i c i e n c y i s the coal-gadcombined-cycle system.

I f advanced g a s i f i e r s such

as two-stage entrained f l o w g a s i f i e r s (see e.~. Ref. and improved

(105)) can be developed,

turbine-blade cool ing methods a r e developed (see e.g.

a ccal-gas/combined-cycle

thermal e f f i c i e n c y of perhaps

(as compared w i t h the base case assumption o f

53%

Ref.

(101)),

could be achieved

37%. The i m p l i c a t ! a n s o f t h i s

change would be a coal-gadcombined-cycle e l e c t r i c generation c o s t o f about

26.3 mills/KwHe as opposed t o the base case f i g u r e a t 30.9 mills/KwHe. have argued (e.g.

several papers i n Ref.

l e s s than Lu-yi-type g a s i f i e r s .

Many

(105)) t h a t advanced g a s i f i e r s w i l l c o s t

Thus i n view o f expected increases i n the p r i c e

o f coal, the increased e f f i c i e n c y (and lower c a p i t a l c o s t ) p o t e n t i a l l y achievable w i t h a coal-gadcombined-cycle make i t a strong contender f o r the cheapest method o f e l e c t r i c generation from coal around the t u r n of the century. One f i n a l p o i n t m e r i t s discussion here.

Although not much o f an attempt has

been made t o estimate the costs of dismantling nuclear r e a c t o r s a t the end of t h e i r useful service l i f e (see

e.g.Ref. (167)

f o r one attempt a t t h i s ) we have heard

estimates of dismantling costs as h i g h as the c o s t of c o n s t r u c t i o n .

When t h i s i s

collapsed t o present value and l e v e l i z e d t o average cost, the f o l l o w i n g increases i n generation c o s t s r e s u l t : about

HTCR and about

4.9

3.7 mills/kWhe f o r an LWR, about 3.9 mills/kWhe f o r an

nills/kWhe f o r an LMFBP.

The d e c i s i o n t o dismantle the p l a n t and

r e s t o r e the land t o other uses has not been made a t t h i s t i m e . f o r a comparison o f t h i s post t o o t h e r nuclear f u e l c y c l e costs. I I I-A-5

(note e)

59

Refer t o Table l l l - A - 4 See a l s o T a b l e

Table I l l - A - 4 :

LWR Fuel Cycle Cost:

FUEL COST:

Base Case

Undiscounted

ear o Oieratiln

Amount of M a t e r i a l (MT/yr)

I n i t i a l Core 2,3 495

6-10 11-31 F i n a l Core

Carrying

Unit Charge Cost of 1 s t Time $ / l b U& Year l n t e r v a f B (Years)

442 185 154

13 14 14 27

154 -442

45 45

154

i,.6 5.7 4.74 9. ' 4

IO. 48 7.9

1.o 1.o

10.48 4.21 3.51 4.19

5.53

54.6

1-75

-16.0

-4.38

1.75

1 .o

1 .o

15.2 -43.7

Undiscountsd Total cost o f 1 s t Year i n t e r v a P I n E : B 1

6.06 17.2

Total

UFL CONVERS ION : " I n i t i a l Core 2,3 4-3 1 F i n a l Core

S/kg

u

554

3.30

232

3.30

191

3.30

-554

216

3.30

1.24 0.52 0.43 -1.24

1-75

1.0

1.75 1.75

1*33 0.54 0.45 -1 -33

1.33 1.02

6.7 -0.37 Total

ENRICHMENT: l n t i a l Core 2-3 1 F i n a l Core

75 75 75

203 102 -203

15.2

1.5 0.75

7.65

1-5

-15.2

16.2 16.2 7.82 133.0 -16.2 -4.57 Total 1 44.6

FABRICATION: I n i t i a l Core 2-3 1 F i n a l Core

6.09 1.93 -6.09

87 27.5

-87

REPROCESSING WASTE MGT: I n i t i a l Core 2-29 F i n a l Core

1.25

6.42

0 -5

1.97

1.25

-6.42 Total

-120 --

0 26 0

Total SUMMARY:

k

Total o s t ($10 1 Fue 1 UF6 Enr ichmen e Fabrication Waste

216.0 8.66 144.6

37.59 50.0

(Dismantling)

Fuel Cost (mi 1 1 s/kWh) 3.64 0.14 2.44 0.64 0.84

7.7 (3.7)

(m

NOTES :

1 . 0 carrying 2.

3.

charge Includes c a r r y i n g charge of 4.25% SWU-superative work u n i t

59a

Total (Not normally included)

6.42 33.0 -1.8

37.59 50.0

III-A-6:

Management of F i n a l Wastes

For t h e f o s s i l systems, management o f f i n a l wastes c o n s i s t s of the disposal o f bottom ash, recovered f l y ash and sludge from t h e s u l f u r recovery system. The handling o f ash i s r e l a t i v e l y simple, so t h a t t h e c o s t s o f management of f i n a l wastes (which a r e n o t separated from conventlonal p l a n t 0 6 M c o s t s i n our Appendix data t a b l e s ) a r e small for t h e RFO and coal-gas/combined-cycle systems where no sludge i s produced. (see e.9.

Ref.

For the base case we have chosen ponding

(90)) f o r sludge disposal w i t h a p r o j e c t e d cost of $2.50/ton;

t h i s t r a n s l a t e s tQa sludge disposal cost o f about 0.5 mills/kWhe f o r t h e c o a l scrub system and about 0.33 mills/kWhe for t h e f l u i d i z e d - b e d system (which i s regenerative) and t h i s i s included i n power p l a n t 0 8 M costs.

The o n l y s i g -

n i f i c a n t non-fuel resource requirement for management of f i n a l wastes f o r the f o s s i l systems i s , or course, land use.

The requirement f o r ash disposal

2

i s about 27m /MWe-yr based on pond disposal for t h e t h r e e coal-based systems and about one-tenth o f t h i s amount for t h e RFO system. sludge disposal requires about

For t h e coal-scrub system,

3 times as lnuch land as ash d i s p o s a l , whereas

f o r the f l u i d ; ? . . .bed system o n l y about h a l f o f t h i s incremental land use i s required.

I f the upper bound on p r o j e c t e d sludge disposal c o s t s by ponding

given i n Ref.

( 9 0 ) o f $4.50/ton o b t a i n , e l e c t r i c generation costs f o r the c o a l -

scrub system would go up by about 0.4 mills/kwHe, system about 0.2 mills/KwHe.

and f o r the f l u i d i z e d - b e d

I f chemical f i x a t i o n of sludge i s the a l t e r n a t i v e

selected, sludge disposal costs of from 0.4 t o 1.8 mills/KwHe f o r the coal-scrub system and from 0 . 3 t o 1.2 mills/KwHe f o r the f l u i d i z e d - b e d system are p o s s i b l e . For the nuclear systems, management o f f i n a l wastes c o n s i s t s of reprocessing and shipment o f spent f u e l s a s w e l l as management o f the non-useable products of t h i s reprocessing.

The cost o f these a c t i v i t i e s i s g e n e r a l l y about 0.8 mills/KwHe,

60

which for a l l o f our r e a c t o r concepts represents l e s s than 5% of the e l e c t r i c a m e r a t i o n cost.

Ref.

( 6 ) , Table 11-2-15 p r o j e c t s about a h a l v i n g of a l l r e -

processing c o s t s by 2020, except those f o r the LMFBR (where o n l ) a 20% reduct ion i s projected).

This would lead t o about a 0.4 mills/kWhe reduction i n e l e c t r i c

generation costs.

For the base case a $lO/Kg cost o f h i g h l e v e l waste management

was assumed based on the weight o f the spent f u e l (not the f i n a l waste i t s e l f ) . The f i s s i o n products a r e

less than 3% by weight of the spent f u e l .

disposal costs per u n i t o f f i s s i o n products

30 times the costs indicated. given i n Ref. (20). Ref.

(e,s.,h i g h

Thus, t h e

l e v e l wastes) a r e o v e r

t h i s i s r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f the g e o l o g i c a l concepts

Should the highest cost a l t e r n a t i v e ( s o l a r escape) given i n

(20) be chosen, the change would be abokt $gO/Kg and e l e c t r i c generation

costs would r i s e by about 9.5-0.6 mills/kWhe.

Social costs o f p o s s i b l e f u t u r e

releases o f stored wastes from coal o r nuclear p l a n t s have not been c a l c u l a t e d . See Table I l l - A - 4

f o r a summary o f nuclear f u e l c y c l e costs.

61

I I I-A-7:

Mu1 t i p l e Sensi t i v i t t e s

I n the previous sections of t h i s chapter we have explored the s e n s i t i v i t y

of the cost of e l e c t r i c generation t o changes i n several base-case parameters whose values could most p l a u s i b l y change i n the future.

Thus f a r , r e s u l t a n t

e l e c t r i c generation costs have been tabulated for v a r i a t i c n s i n one parameter a t a time.

As simultaneous v a r i a t i o n s i n several base-case parameters a r e equal I y

plausible, the major purpose o f the present s e c t i o n becomes t h a t o f t a b u l a t i n g e l e c t r i c generation costs for ceveral o f the most i n t e r e s t i n g mu1 t i p l e parameter v a r i a t i o n cases.

,Idditionally,

although a d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s o f regional cost

d i f f e r e n c e s a r e beyond the scope o f t h i s work, we argue b r i e f l y t h a t such d i f f e r ences can indeed be a s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r i n terms of the economic competitiveness of the a l t e r n a t i v e study systems. I n Table

Ill-A-S

we have simply tabuiated t h e impact o f varying some o f t h e

base case parameters discussed i n Section

Ill-A-6 simultaneously.

Note t h a t these

r e s u l t s i n d i c a t e t h a t no one system dominates any o t h e r on a c o s t basis f o r a l l p l a u s i b l e parameter value assumptions.

When high f u e l and h i g h c a p i t a l c o s t s

are considered which represent 3% and 5% e s c a l a t i o n t o 1990, along w i t h h i s t o r i c a l load f a c t o r , e l e c t r i c i t y costs f r o m coal double w h i l e nuclear c o s t s t r i p l e . reverses the energy cost advantage of nuclear po.

This

-. and i l l u s t r a t e s t h e f u t u r e

u n c e r t a i n t y of comparative energy costs of nuclear versus coal p l a n t s . Regional coal p r i c e s l a s t December v3ried from 16dMBtu to $l.OS/Njtu

1974 d o l l a r s according t o Ref. (31).

i n mid-

Usirlg base-case assumptions f o r o t h e r econ-

omic parameters, t h i s gives a range o f generation c o s t s f o r the coal-scrub system o f from about 19.5 t o 36.0 mills/KwHe, f o r the f l u i d i z e d - b e d system o f froln 14.9 t o 31.4 m i l l s / K w H c ? and f o r the coal-gadcombined mills/KwHe.

v c l e system o f from .8.7 t o 36.0

The high c u r r e n t p r i c e of o i l ha5 &,npened out the e f f e c t o f regional

d i f f e r e n c e s i n RFO p r i c e s t o the a o i n t where they are not s i g n i f i c a n t . f u e l costs have not shown, ;,nd reg ional d if f erences

Nuclear

probably w i l l continue not t o show, s i g n i f i c a n t

. 62

I t i s a s i g n i f i c a n t accomplishment of the AEC's (now ERDA's) c a p i t a l - c o s t

estimating computer program CONCEPT (see e.?. Ref.

(27)) t h a t r e g i o n a l c a p i t a l

cost d i f f e r e n c e s may be updated almost continuously. and

our d e f i n i t i o n f o r c a p i t a 1 costs,

system range from

Using t h i s program Ref.

(21)

regional c a p i t a l costs for t h e coal-scrub

$354/Kwe to $425/Kwe, which corresponds to e l e c t r i c generation

costs of from 30.1 mills/KwHe to 32.4 m i l l s / l W l e .

I n the same r e f e r e n l e regional

c a p i t a l costs for LWRs range from 2382/Kwe to $46O/t(we, which corresponds to a range of LWR e l e c t r i c zeneration costs o f from 21.4 miIIs/KwHe t o 23.8 mills/KwHe.

63

Table 111-A-5:

h n s t t i v l t y of Electrtc 6eneretlon Costs to llrlttple Parameter Yariationr

------ LaJ Lou Hist

Base Base Base

Base

High High Hist

52-7

55.2

61

ease

High

Base

LOW

Base

Hist

Hist

High Hist

44.2

High High

Cepit a l

------ -6 31.7 3s-2 30.1

24.4

27.1

29.6

1-6

42.9

47.1

51.9

29.1

3o.a

34.2

43.2

52.u

54.9a

61.4

45.4 34.0 43.2 45.4 53.2 57.4 57 -4 -23-7

22.7

25.8

30.3

32.:

53.5

68.7

23.0

21.3

24.4

28.7

29.1

51.4

66.6

23.2

21.7

23.1

27-9

28.0

52.4

70.8

28.5 50.4 66.1 -----22.4

20.7

23.4

27.4

a-

The high, low and base fuel costs correspond t o those given i n Table Ill-A-1 w i t h

b.

The high and low c a p i t a l costs correspond' to the right-most and left-most

the base RFO cost doubling as the high RFO cost. estimates provided i n Table Ill-A-2.

Ill-A-3.

c.

The h i s t o r i a l (Hist) capacity factors assumed are

d.

Rased on the improved coaI-gas/combined-cytie efficiency discussed i n Section Ill-A-6.the t o s t here would be 22.7 m i 1 ls/kWhe

these given i n Table

e. Note d , but 26.6 mills/kWhe f. Note d, but 38.5 mills/kWhe 9. I f dismantling costs of the power plant were 100% of o r i g i n a l costs, the following equivalent mills/kwh charges could be: Capital Costs (rnills/kWh) LMFBR HTGR

64

II 1-8-8:

Research and Development Costs

Projected R C D c o s t s were c o l l e c t e d for each of the e l e c t r i c generation systems selected for study and a r e suarnarired i n Tables I l I - A - 6 a n d I l l - A - 7 .

In the past,many agencies have been responsible for energy R 6 D programs (see,

e.g.,References (2191, (220).

etc.).

However, pursuant to i t s founding e a r l y

t h i s year, most o f the a d m i n i s t r a t i o n of energy h 6 D programs and v i r t u a l l y a l l c o - o r d i n a t i o n of such programs have been made the r e s p o n s i b i l i t y o f the new Energy Research and Development A d m i n i s t r a t i o n (ERDA).

Consequently, v i r t u a l l y

a l l e x i s t e n t long-range p r o j e c t i o n s c f R 6 D expenditure scenarios were forml a t e d i n the pre-ERDA era.

I n t h i s study we have, i n p a r t i c u l a r , r e l i e d h e a v i l y

on an assessment of energy R 6 D programs and recommendations made i n a recent FPC r e p o r t (Ref.

(218;),

as i t takes i n t o account most previous energy R 6 D

reconmendations and i t focuses s p e c i f i c a l l y on the electric-power industry.

We

can add to t h i s the proposed FY '76 ERDA funding l e v e l s to g a i n some i n s i g h t

into l i k e l y R 8 D c o s t s required for emerging energy technologies. References (223) and (224).

(See e.g.,

For an i l l w n i n a t i n s discussion of issues involved

i n s e t t i n g energy R 6 D p r i o r i t i e s , see Ref.

(225).)

However, the genesis of

ERDA has, i n the words of several ERDA o f f i c i a l s we have spoken to,

I

beginning of a "whole new ballgame" i n energy R C D.

The new game pl.,

ERDA's proposed funding l e v e l s for energy R 6 D f o r 5

-

Further, as the emergence o f the "energy c r i s i s " ,

(&

Ref.

has k i n d l e d a l a r g e

amount of congressional i n t e r e s t i n and concern over energy R & D

(178)), e x a c t l y what t h i s proposed p l a n

the

IO years i n t o t h e f u t u r e )

i s due t o be d e l ivered t o Congress a t the end o f June, 1975 (see, e.g.

(226)).

-qt

(s Ref.

w i l l e n t a i l i s , a t the moment, not a t

a l l easy to surmise. With t h i s caveat i n mind, we r e t u r n t o Table I I I - A - ~ which , shows p r o j e c t e d (pre-ERDA) R t D expenditures and expected commerci;'

65

- a t i o n dates f o r e l e c t r i c

Table I11-8-6:

Projected R & 0 Costs f o r A1 t e r n a t i w e E l e c t r i c Power Generations Systems

Cost f i g u r e s given a r e i n mid-1974 d o l l a r s . The completion date r e f e r s t o the commercialization d a t e f o r developing technologies and to t h e end of the R S 0 programs f o r technologies t h a t a r e now commercial.

a.

From Ref. (218:; f a r c o r r o b o r a t i o n and some discrepancies see 5 2 . Refs. (215), (216), and (219).

b.

From Ref. ( 6 ) . This f i g u r e r e f e r s o n l y to the LMFBR program. Were we t o combine w i t h t h i s the expenditures on o t h e r breeder concepts and breeder "support technologies" as i s o f t e n done i n breeaer c o s t / b e n e f i t analyses, the f i g u r e would r i s e t o 9.5 b i l l i o n mid-1974 d o l l a r s . (See Refs. ( 6 ) , (176), (178), and (232) f o r more on the proposed Breeder budget )

.

c.

Much of the coal -scrubber research w i 1 1 apply t o o i I sys ems.

d.

The HTGR and LWR categories i n c l u d e a 50-50 s p l i t of the approximate $600 m i l l i o r LWR and HTGR s a f e t y category. This amount s included i n both the Lh and LWR-Pu t o t a l s .

66

Table I l l - A - 7 :

Support

R

b D Programs for A l t e r n a t i v e

E l e c t r i c Power Generation Systems

Cost f i g u r e s given a r e i n mid-1978 d o l l a r s and r e f e r to expenditures p r o j e c t e d t o be necessary from 1975-1984.

R

S 0

-~

Projected R s D cos@ (H'I I ions of DOI lars) COAL : Mining Improvement

278

Wining Health and Safety

366

Fuel Cycle Environmental Controls

336

Power Plant Environmental Controls

651

OIL: Stimulation of O i 1 Reserves Exploration Fuel Cycle Environmental Controls Power Plant Environmental Controls NUCLEAR :

49

Uranium Exploration and Mining Uranium Enrichment

397

Fuel Cycle Environmental Controls

479 21 13

Reactor Environmental Controls Rad ioac t ive Waste D isposa i

171

Other Breeders

140p

Breeder Support Technology

160@

a.

Unless otherwise noted, from Ref. (218), see also References ( 2 1 5 ) , (216). and (219).

b.

From Ref. (6).

67

generation system included f o r a n a l y s i s i n t h i s study.

This Table includes

those programs which can be d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d t o a p a r t i c u l a r e l e c t r i c - g e n e r a t i o n system (and, therefore,

p r i m a r i l y those programs d i r e c t l y r e ated t o a p a r t i c u -

l a r type o f power p l a n t ) .

of the LHFBR program.

One notes i t m e d i a t e l y i n t h i s tab e the predominance

F i n a l ly,

i n Table III-A-7,

we i n c l u d e estimates o f R 5 D

funds f o r some programs t h a t w i l l c o n t r i b u t e to the c o m e r c i a l i z a t i o n o r acceptance of a t l e a s t

one of the study systems, and to o t h e r p a r t s o f the energy

economy as w e l l , and where, therefore, systems i s not possible.

the a l l o c a t i o n o f funds among t o separate

I n t h i s table,

the l a r g e a l l o c a t i o n o f funds t o

( p r i m a r i l y ) breeder r e a c t o r support programs i s apparent, as w e l l as the s i g n i f i c a n t a1 l o c a t i o n o f funds t o environmental c o n t r o l research, especial l y those

thought t o be necessary t o secure widespread commercial acceptance o f nuclear reactors.

68

111-8:

Environmental and Health Impacts

II1-8-'1:

Harvesting Fuels

I n the d e t a i l e d tables i n Appendices A-H we have entered data for b o t h

the impacts of underground and s u r f a c t nined coal.

f o r uranium we have not

disaggregated the two types of mining b u t have taken the impacts d i r e c t l y from r e p o r t s which assume a c e r t a i n f r a c t i o n of the mining t o be o f each type.

At

present about 50% of coal and uranium i s surface mined and the trend i s toward more surface mining. (8,25,137).

I n the long term, however, t h i s trend must

I n a d d i t i o n , there

be reversed as p r o g r e s s i v e l y deeper deposits a r e u t i l i z e d .

i s a change o c c u r r i n g i n the geographic d i s t r i b u t i o n o f coal mining.

This

s h i f t i s toward a l a r g e r p r o p o r t i o n of western surface-mined coa1,in c o n t r a s t t o the present s i t u a t i o n i n which o n l y about 10% (by weight) i s mined i n the Rocky Mountain and P a c i f i c States.

r e l a t i o n s h i p between s u l f u r s t r i p p a b l e deposits.

L

I n addition,

there seems t o be an inverse

t e n t and the surface slope angle o f eastern

Thus the contemplated r e s t r i c t i o n on mining above a c e r -

t a i n angle i n combination w i t h continued s u l f u r r e s t r i c t i o n s w i l l lead to increased use o f western coals.

(53,135).

We have chosen eastern underground mined coal

and western surface-mined coal as t y p i c a l of t h e two types o f mining and the two regions.

For uranium mining we have used a "national average'' mlne and m i l l

t o i l l u s t r a t e the impacts.

(9).

Coal mining has t r a d i t i o n a l l v been considered one o f the most hazardous and i l l - p a i d of occupations.

However, since the passage o f the Federal Coal Mine

Act of 1969 and the Occupational Safety and Health Act o f been s t e a d i l y improving.

I970 c o n d i t i o n s have

Dust l e v e l s , exposures t o which i s d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d

t o the prevalence o f coal workers pneumoconiosis (CWP), and accident r a t e s are falling.

*

I n a d d i t i o n , the miners' wages and o t h e r b e n e f i t s

*

are beginning t o r i s e

For example, i n 1972 the Black Lung B e n e f i t s Act relaxed the c r i t e r i a f o r awarding compensation t o miners.

69

However, there s t i l l i s a serious question of

i n r e l a t i o n t o other industries.

s o c i a l e q u i t y r e l a t e d to coal mining.

The e n t i r e s o c i e t y i s r e c e i v i n g the

b e n e f i t o f coal miming w h i l e a small but s i g n i f i c a n t m i n o r i t y i s undergoing much

of the damage. (24,25,59,133-139) The occupational r i s k o f accidental death o r i n j u r y per m i l l i o n miner-hours

i s very s i m i l a r for coal and uranium mining.

However, many fewer miner-hours

are needed i n the uranium c y c l e f o r a comparable energy output (

4, 5, 7 1.

the i n d i v i d u a l miners undergo s i m i l a r r i s k s but the o v e r a l l s o c i a l impact

Tfus,

i s approximately 20 times greater i n coal mining.

A t the present time, coal miners have about 150 times g r e a t e r r i s k o f developing lung disease from t h e i r occupation than do uranium miners.

The impact of t h i s d i f -

ference i s a c t u a l l y smaller than t h i s f a c t o r , because, i n general, CWP i s less damaging and more amenable t o treatment than lung cancer.

If the dust l e v e l s a r e maintained r i g o r o u s l y a t the present standard (2 mg/m 3 ) , t h e r a t e o f CWP/MWe-yr should begin t o drop as t h e t o t a l average dose t o the miners i s reduced.

Table 111-8-1 s p e c i f i e s what t h i s r a t e would be under several d i f f e r e n t assump-

t i o n s (5,25,137).

Miner output/day has reduced from 14.2 MT (1969) to 10.2 (14??)

mainly due t o new mining l e g i s l a t i o n t o improve miner working conditior,s. increased because o f the longer time and exposure t o produce a ton o f coal.

The CWP/MWe-yr The expo-

n e n t i a l n o t a t i o n i s used extensively i n t h e appendix, but i s a l s o used f o r the f i r s t time i n Table 111-8-1.

Please note nomenclature i n the table.

Table I l l - E - 1 :

Possible Future Black Lung Disease

Power Plant E f f i c i e n c y

MT/M iner- day output

@

37%

10.2 (1973) 14.2 (1969)

@ MT

- metric

45%

41%

8.2

-4

7.4

5.9

-

5.3

4

~~

ton a t 11600 BTU/lb

70

-

4

6.7

4

4.9

-

4

4

These r a t e s a r e 50-100 times lower than t h e present t o t a l CWP estlmate and correspond t o an i n d i v i d u a l r i s k w i t h i n a f a c t o r of 2 higher than t h e median lung cancer r i s k for t h e underground uranium miner.*

CWP

It should be pointed out t h a t simple-

i s a much less serious disease than lung cancer and t h a t t h e r e i s u n l i k e l y to be a

r i s k of the more severe forms of CWP a t t h i s dust l e v e l .

In a d d i t i o n , however, o t h e r

types o f lung disease a r e associated w i t h both coal and uranium mining. The m i l l i n g of uranium a l s o creates an a c i d waste aiong w i t h BOD, suspended s o l i d s , t o t a l d i s s o l v e d s o l i d s , etc., t a i l i n g s i n a waste pond.

whicharedisposed o f along w i t h t h e s o l i d m i l l

The l e v e l s of Th and Ra probably preclude t h e use o f t h e

t a i l i n g s as c o n s t r u c t i o n f i l l o r i n s i m i l a r a p p l i c a t i o n s near human h a b i t a t i o n (3,157,

158).

Over a very long p e r i o d o f time, t h e r e may be a s i g n i f i c a n t human r a d i a t i o n

dose from the Radon gas released from these t a i l i n g s of l e f t uncovered, but a 2 0 f t . l a y e r of d i r t would reduce t h e Radon emission by a f a c t o r o f 10 (Ref. 157).

The

uranium t a i l i n g could produce 0.5 deaths/MWe-yr over 80,000 years if n o t sealed (P.ef

233).

This i s p o t e n t i a l l y an enormous e f f e c t , but a c t s over a very long time p e r i o d compared t o the p l a n t l i f e t i m e .

This e f f e c t i s excluded i n c a l c u l a t i n g h e a l t h e f f e c t s .

Various types o f o i l s p i l l s produce the most damaging o f the environmental impacts from o i l production.

Both the import o f f o r e i g n o i l and the production

o f off-shore or o u t e r c o n t i n e n t a l s h e l f o i l have the p o t e n t i a l f o r a c c i d e n t l y releasing very large amounts o f o i l i n t o the ocean.

Several recent studies

(115-118) have looked i n t o t h i s problem i n some depth and have t r i e d t o determine the kinds o f p r o b a b i l i t i e s , q u a n t i t i e s , e f f e c t s and c o n t r o l techniques t h a t are Large storms, hurricanes, earthquakes,

appropriate f o r various types o f s p i l l s .

and ship c o l l i s i o n s are the kinds o f i n i t i a t i n g events which cou d t r i g g e r such a release.

In addition,

the "routine" s p i l l from tankers, o i l p atforms and

p i p e l i n e s may be important i n some areas.

A I though there i s apparently 1 i t t l e o r no human h e a l t h r i s k from the

9:

9 i s k per miner-year

Present

Future

Uranium:

3 (lor4 4.5 ( l o r 2

7

Cancer r a t e

Coal : CWP r a t e

71

4.9

t o x i c i t y o f oil s p i l l s (114) there can be considerable impect on the ecology, economy and r e c r e a t i o n a l p o t e n t i a l of an area.

I n a d d i t i o n , there i s a safety

r i s k because o f the p o t e n t i a l for large-scale f i r e i f , f o r example, an o i l tanker should break a p a r t and burn near a populated area. I n both uranium and coal e x t r a c t i o n , surface mining i s d i s t i n c t l y s a f e r both i n terms imately

3

of accidents and lung disease.

*

Surface mining d i s r u p t s approx-

times more land by s t r i p p i n g than underground mining does by subsidence.

Coal mining b; the longwall method causes m r e subsidence but the amount and l o c a t i o n o f the subsidence i s more p r e d i c t a b l e than i n room-and-pillar method. The a c i d waste produced by underground coal mining i n the east has no counterp a r t i n western surface mining because there i s l i t t l e or no p y r i t e s u l f u r i n There may be some problems w i t h a k a l i n e

the western coal t o form s u l f u r i c acid.

and o t h e r discharges, however. Reclamation o f surface mined land i s a d i f f i c u l t 3nd sometimes lengthy procedure i n areas w i t h low r a i n f a l l and shallow t o p s o i l as, for example, i n the western range states.

It seems l i k e l y , however, t h a t

some type of l e g i s l a t i o n w i l l be enacted soon to enforce reclamation o f land d i s t u r b e d by surface mining.

*

(58-62)

There i s some evidence t h a t dust l e v e l s a t c e r t a i n surface coal mines may be h i g h enough t o produce CWP.

(25 ) .

Surface coal miners have about 50% o f the

accident r a t e o f deep miners per m i l l i o n miner-hours. output per man hour i s about

3

t i m e s higher

72

(137).

And,in a d d i t i o n , the

II1-8-2 Upgrad ing Fue 1s The Fossi 1 systems have much l e s s complicated fuel-upgrading steps than the nuclear systems.

I n f a c t , western coal i s n o t prepared a t a l l p r i o r t o

t r a n s p o r t t o the power p l a n t .

Eastern underground coal i s p h y s i c a l l y cleaned

i n order t o lower the s u l f u r content by removal o f p a r t o f the inorganic p y r i t e .

Also, t h i s process removes some ash and consequently r a i s e s the B t u content per pound s l i g h t l y .

F o r t y t o f i f t y percent o f the s u l f u r i n most c o a l s can

be removed by t h i s cleaning.

(63, 64)

There i s a wide range i n the m i x t u r e o f petroleum produced a t o i l r e f i n e r i e s . The amount o f r e s i d u a l f u e l o i l (RFO), the f u e l i n our reference o i 1 system, can vary from 5 t o 90%o f r e f i n e r y output, depending on the type o f crude o i l , I

the k i n d of r e f i n i n g process u t i l i z e d , and the requirements o f the company. Consequently, the a l l o c a t i o n o f impacts a t the r e f i n e r y t o a u n i t o f RFO i s n o t a simple process.

We have used the impacts tabulated by several s t u d i e s

t h a t have t r i e d t o c a l c u l a t e the p r o p o r t i o n of impacts t o be ascribed t o RFO using average r e f i n e r y o u t p u t percentages. (1,

5, 7,

119)

Upgrading o f nuclear f u e l c o n s i s t s o f several q u i t e d i f f e r e n t steps.

Enrich-

ment i n the LWR, LWR-Pu end HTGR cycles r e q u i r e s r e l a t i v e l y l a r g e amounts o f electricity.

The emissions o f the coal f i r e d p l a n t s which operate the enrichment

p l a n t s are o f t e n assigned t o the nuclear f u e l cycle.

This i s u s u a l l y j u s t i f i e d

by the f a c t t h a t the enrichment p l a n t s a c t u a l l y , a t present, have t h e i r own c a ? t i v e power p l a n t s .

However, t h i s c a l c u l a t i o n a l procedure i s not e n t i r e l y

consistent, i n t h a t there i s e l e c t r i c i t y r e q u i r e d f o r most i f not a l l steps i n a l l the f u e l cycles, and no

assignment i s made o f the emissions which r e s u l t from

the production o f t h a t e l e c t r i c i t y .

Furthermore, i n the f u t u r e , enrichment

73

p l a n t s may n o t operate w i t h c a p t i v e p l a n t s o r may operate w i t h non-coal p l a n t s . Just as i n energy accounting, t h e r e i s no obvious end t o t h i s secondary-impact accounting.

Should one, f o r example, count the emissio IS

which occur i n the manufacture o f the s t e e l used i n the power p l a n t ?

We have

n o t attempted t o do t h i s k i n d o f accounting and would urge t h a t the conceptua questions be resolved before i t i s undertaken.

(9)

The LMFBR system r e q u i r e s no enrichment c a p a c i t y . The f u e l f a b r i c a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s f o r each o f the f o u r nuclear systems a r e s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t from one another. o f r e l a t i v e l y non-toxic uranium.

LWR f a b r i c a t i o n r e q u i r e s the processing

The loss o f approximately 0.8% of the through-

p u t i s o f l i t t l e concern and leads t o l i t t l e or no h e a l t h and environmental impacts.

LWR-Pu p l a n t s use uranium and plutonium (mixed oxide, abbreviated :lox)

fuels, and consequently the p o t e n t i a l hazard i s much g r e a t e r .

(3)

e x i s t s f o r both the workers i n the p l a n t s and the p u b l i c outside.

T h i s hazard The t a b l e s

i n appendix F and G i n d i c a t e a m x h higher l e v e l of containment than the 99.2% common i n cranium f a b r i c a t i o n p l a n t s . The c o s t s o f f a b r i c a t i o n are a l s o expected t o be much g r e a t e r because the l e v e l o f care, accounting, p r o t e c t i o n , maintainance and containment must be orders o f magnitude more r i g o r o u s .

Table I 11-8-2

indi-

cates the releases o f plutonium under various assumptions and i l l u s t r a t e s t h a t t h i s problem i s p o t e n t i a l l y serious.

74

Table 111-8-2:

D i l u t i o n Volumes Required for F a b r i c a t i o n P l a n t Releases The d i l u t i o n volumes i n a i r a r e l i s t e d i n u n i t s o f m i l l i o n cubic meters. The l o s s i s l i s t e d i n Ci/Mwe-yr. The d i l u t i o n volumes were c a l c u l a t e d by d i v i d i n g the l o s s i n C i by the MPCa standards f o r n a t u r a l uranium and plutonium-239. The d i l u t i o n volumes have been corrected t o account f o r the mix o f isotopes i n r e a c t o r grade plutonium.

The LMFBR f a b r i c a t i o n p l a n t s a l s o use MOx and exacerbate the problem even There i s about 4 times as much plutonium

f u r t h e r as indicated i n Table 111-8-2.

processed i n a LMFBR f a b r i c a t i o n f a c i l i t y because a f a s t breeder i s fueled s o l e l y w i t h plutonium.

HTCR's have very complicated f a b r i c a t i o n processes and f a c i l i t i e s . d i f f e r e n t types of f u e l p a r t i c l e s a r e f a b r i c a t e d .

Several

There i s no plutoniun: i n

these f u e l s although the hazards o f d i r e c t r a d i a t i o n are h i g h because of U-233 i n the f u e l .

The U-233 w i l l be contaminated w i t h U-232 which decays i n t o sever-

a l very dangerous daughter products.

qemote o r semi-remote handling w i l l be

required f o r the f a b r i c a t i o n o f U-233 f u e l p a r t i c l e s . Maximum Permisible Concentration i n a i r .

75

(189)

(180, 183, 184)

See Section I 1 1 - 6 - 6 .

I 11-8-3:

T ransportat ion

Transportation accidents are a s i g n i f i c a n t p a r t o f the p u b l i c h e a l t h impacts

from coal plants.

An increased use of coal s l u r r y p i p e l i n e s (53.621,

unit trains

and mine-mouth power p l a n t s w i l l reduce t h i s impact by reducing the average d:stance coal i s transported and decreasing the accldsnt r a t e per ton-mile. impacts of

The

RFO transport -re s i m i l a r to those t h a t r e s u l t from crude transport;

these are discussed i n s e c t i o n 111-8-1. The transport o f nuclear fuels has very small accidental death and injury impact because o f the small amount of m a t e r t a l a c t u a l l y transported.

The r o u t i n e

emissions and r a d i a t i o n dosages are a l s o small compared t o those from o t h e r p a r t s o f the nuclear f u e l cycles. accidental releases

Oi

iherL

concern however, about the p o s s i b i l i t y o?

radionuclides, e s p e c l e l l y from accidents i n v o l v i n g the

transport of i.radiated f u e l and high-level waste.

Estimates have been made o f

the m a x i m possible releases i n such accidents and the associated p r o b a b i l i t i e s (9,14,18,19).

The expected values are low but there are low p r o b a b i l i t y j h i g h

consequence events which have been i d e n t i f i e d .

(See s e c t i o n I l l - 8 - 7 f o r a d i s -

cussion o f the imp1 i c a t i o n s o f d i f f e r e n t r i s k d i s t r i b u t i o n s . )

There are s t r i a g e n t

regulations i n v o l v i n g the transport o f h i g h l y r a d i o a c t i v e m a t e r i a l s , and s t r i c t adherence t o these regulations should keep the l e v e l o f emissions from accidents and routine operations t o a minimum, compared t o o t h e r p a r t s o f the nuclear f u e l cycles.

I t should be pointed out, however, t h a t there have been no s i g n i f i c a n t

shipments of high l e v e l waste, t o date.

I n f a c t , the Final design o f h i g h l e v e l

waste- 9ipment ca .:s has not beer! qelected.

I t i s impossible t o assess the t o t a l

impacts of a fuel cycle which i s not yet complete arc! f o r which no f i n a l designs and plans are available.

76

The potential for diversion of fissile material by unauthorized groups i s a further concern during the transport of nuclear fuels.

This problem i s

discussed in the context of the entire nuclear fuel cycle in section 111-8-7.

77

I 11-8-4: Can\tetsion

The conversion of f o s s i l fuels i n t o e l e c t r i c i t y produces t h e l a r g e s t amunt o f emissions i n these fuel sycles.

SOX, NOx and p a r t i c u l a t e s a r e the p o l l u t a n t s

which have been i d e n t i f i e d as being most critica1,although very important f o r

some types of coal and o i l d c s t i o n .

There has been a great deal of standards f o r f o s s i l plants.

t o x i c metals may be

(5,81-82)

debate r e c e n t l y about t h e SOX emission

Not o n l y i s there u n c e r t a i n t y about t h e r e l a t i o n -

s h i p between emissions and ambient l e v e l s but t h e r e i s t h e g r e a t u n c e r t a i n t y about t h e dose-response r e l a t i o n s h i p s .

Furthernore, t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s are

clouded by t h e great u n c e r t a i n t y about e x a c t l y which p o l l u t a n t s are causing t h e observed e f f e c t s .

SOX, for example, may e x e r t i t s e f f e c t through sone or a l l

o f the various s u l f a t e s which are formed from i t .

NOx a l s o i n t e r a c t s i n the

environment and seems t o e x e r t an impact through intermediary substances.

Thus

a l l the p o l l u t a n t s have t o be considered i n r e l a t i o n t o the environmental cond i t i o n s such as temperature, humidity, s u n l i g h t and the presence of o t h e r chemi c a l s

.

The technical r , - i i a b i l i t y

as w e l l as the need o f SOX contro

heatedly contested i n recent years.

It seems, however, t h a t the

has been ime (and pos-

s i b l y 1 imestone) scrubbers can operate re1 i a b i l y and w i t h removal e f f i c i e n c i e s

o f up t o about 9C5 on c m v e n t i o n a l co31 and o i l b o i l e r s w i t h a thermal e f f i c i e n c y penalty as w e l l as increased c a p i t a l and operating costs. (15) cation/combined-cycle

Low-Btu g a s i f i -

combustion seems t o o f f r - p o t e n t i a l s u l f u r removals o f 99%

o r more i n the combination w i t h thermal e f f i c i e n c i e s o f 45%.

There have been

some claims t h a t the thermal e f f i c i e n c i e s o f g a s i f i c a t i s n and cunbustion might t o t a l as much as 50% o r more.

j,28)

I n t h i s case the l i m i t i n g f a c t o r may not

be ?mission regulations but the need t o provic'e a very clean gas f o r t u r b i n e

78

fluidized-bed combustion seems

c . rbustion to a v o i d t u r b i n e blade darnage. (30)

t o have the p o t e n t i a l to remove up t o 95% of t h e s u l f u r contained i n t h e fuels.

(13) The present SOX emission standards w i l l not o n l y have t o be maintained but strengthened i n the f u t u r e i f t o t a l SOX emissions burdens a r e n o t t o r i s e considerably.

(2)

Table 111-8-3 i n d i c a t e s the removal e f f i c i e n c i e s which would be

needed f o r d i f f e r e n t kinds o f f u e l s and more s t r i n g e n t emission r e g u l a t i o n s .

I f the standard were t e n times more c r r i n g e n t than a t present, both r e s i d u a l f u e l o i l and western coal could be b u m d w i t h 95% removal o f s u l f u r .

Hwver,

if the standard were t o be 100 times nore s t r i n g e n t , SOX removal would have t o be greater than 99%for a l l the fuels and o n l y low-Btu g a s i f i c a t i o d c o m b i n e d c y c l e combustion might be able t o meet the requirement. Table 111-8-4

i l l u s t r a t e s the l e v e l o f premature deaths t h a t would be

associated w i t h emissions of SOX a t the ‘ates by more s t r i n g e n t standards i n the future.

allowed both by present standards and

The reader i s warned t h a t these

numbers, which a r e extrapolated on a 1 inear basis from reference (151, are subject t o a wide band o f uncertainty.

The upper and lower estimates i n each box of the

t a b l e r e f e r t o the range between remote and urban power p l a n t s i t e s i n reference

(15). I n order t o provide a very rough comparison w i t h the r i s k from nuclear power accidents the r e s u l t s o f the f o l l o w i n g c a l c u l a t i o n s are presented.

100 1000-Mwe power p l a n t s o p e r a t i n g a t

754

capacity f o r 30 years

Emission r a t e of 0.06 I b . SOx/million Btu (S? of - - - s e n t standard(100))

* 412 average thermal e f f i c i e n c y Uncertainty f a c t o r o f 1/10 t o 2 t i m e s i n the dose-response r e l a t i o n s h i p suggested by reference ( 1 5 ) . gives 72

- 4320

premature deaths i n 30 yea,.

This c a l c u l a t i o n i s very approximate and leaves out many a d d i t i o n a l impacts

79

.

such as nonfatal respiratory diseases, materials damage and e f f e c t s of other pollutants such as NO4, CO, solid particulate, etc. Table I 11-8-3:

Sulfur Removal Efficiency Reauired t o Heet Standards ~

I F u l f u r Standards ( I b SO2/ m i l l i o n BTU input)

10% 0.12

Eastern Coal 3.3% S 2/3 o f which has beem cleaned t o remove 40% of the SUI fur. 12,000 Btu/lb

70.2%

Western Coal 0.8% s 9000 B t d l b

32.5%

Residual Fuel O i l 1.0% s 6 6.3(10) Btu/bbl

Present ST 0.012 coal

- coal

-

i

-

0

80

97.0%

99 7%

93 3%

99.3%

88.5%

98 9%

-

f a b l e 111-6-4:

Health Effects of Sox: Premature dea t h s / h -y r The low number i n each box represents a remotely s i t e d p l a n t , the h i g h number an urban p l a n t as d e f i n e d by r e f . (15)

Sulfur Standards (Ib SO2 / m

-_____ _ - - .

.

--

Present emission standards for NOx are 0.7

I b / m i l l i o n B t u for s o l i d

fuelsand 0.3 l b / m i l l l o n B t u for l i q u i d fuels,which best a v a i l a b l e emibsion r a t e s f o r new b o i l e r s .

roughly corresponds t o the

By combustion m o d i f i c a t i o n I n

b o i l e r s these r a t e s can be lowered by a f a c t o r o f 1.5 o r 2.

Fluidized-bed

conbustion should be able t o meet o r exceed t h e 0.14 l b / m i l l i o n B t u r e g u l a t i o n p r o j e c t e d for 1985.

(13,15,91-98)

Although the removal of p a r t i c u l a t e s by weight i s very e f f i c i e n t , t h e smaller p a r t i c l e s which are not removed may have a s i g n i f cant h e a l t h impact. Nuclear power p l a n t s release r e 1 a t ; v c l y smal normal operations compared t o f o s s i l plants.

(129)

amounts of t o x i c m a t e r i a l d u r i n g

The concern and u n c e r t a i n t y 1 i e s i ~ t ti h

the possible release o f very l a r g e amounts o f rad oact i v e m a t e r i a l as the r e s u l t

o f accidents.

Since the beginning o f the nuclear power i n d u s t r y the p r o b a b i l i t y

81

and consequence o f such accidents has been subject t o considerable debate. l a t e 1971 the AEC issued i n d r a f t form a d e t a i l e d study (WASH-1400-Draft)

In that

attempted t o i d e n t i f y a l l p o s s i b l e accident sequences and t o estimate the prob a b i l i t y and s e v e r i t y associated w i t h each sequence. (17)

T h i s study examined

LWR's without plutonium r e c y c l e and d i d not consider accident sequences which could r e s u l t from sabotage or attempted d i v e r s i o n o f nuclear m a t e r i a l s .

Nothing

of comparable d e t a i l has been done on t h e o t h e r reactors or on o t h e r p a r t s o f the f u e l cycles.

Recognizing t h a t t h e other r e a c t o r s have very d i f f e r e n t

c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and may have very d i f f e r e n t accident p r o b a b i l i t i e s and s e v e r i t i e s ,

we s h a l l concentrate on LWR accident r i s k s i n t h e f o l l o w i n g discussion. Table 111-6-5

l i s t s the r i s k s of deathlMwe-year f o r LWR's as determined

by Wash-?400 (17) and also l i s t s the range i n u n c e r t a i n t y i n both s e v e r i t i e s and p r o b a b i l i t i e s as i n d i c a t e d by t h e r e p o r t end by c r i t i c s of the r e p o r t . t o t a l range o f estimates i s very large.

The r i s k s range f r o m

5.9 x 10-5 deatt- 'MWe-yr based s o l e l y on W1400.

3.7

The

to

We b a v t added a f a c t o r of 20

t o t h e h i q h e n d based on the American Physical Society c r i t i q u e .

This was due t o

d i f f e r e n c e i n considering evacuation p,-ocedures, as w e l l as t o t a l population dose. I t should be m n t i o n e d t h a t o t h e r estimates made i n the past,

i f included, would

extend t h i s range appreciably i n both d i r e c t i o n s .

I f there was one sabotage o r d i v e r s i o n i n c i d e n t i n the 30 year o p e r a t i o n o f 100-1000 MWe power p l a n t s which caused 11000 somatic deaths, the r i s k from these causes would be 80x t h e r i s k s from the h i g h end of the range o f W1400 (Rasmussen).

This i s 4x the h i g h end o f W1400 a f t e r the f a c t o r o f 20 derived from

the American Physical Society c r i t i q u e has been a p p l i e d throughout (see Table 1 1 1 -

B-5).

Recently a very p r e l i m i n a r y attempt has been made t o u t i l i z e d e c i s i o n

tree

methodology t o q u a n t i f y the s o c i a l c o s t s o f nuclear and f o s s i l power s y s t e m s (Ref.

234).

A t e n t a t i v e f a c t o r of about 90 between the t o t a l s o c i a l cost o f nuclear

sabotage and d i v e r s i o n compared t o accidents was derived from t h i s study.

a'* 5: t';

Thus,

~ t h 0 - 5 of t h i s study are v e r y i n s i s t e n t that t h e i r numbers are not . (

.t

L I c l i i ~ i v e ,the t o t a l r i s k from sabotage may be very w c h more ' 1 . 1

f r o m accidents, as w e l l a s b e i n g more d i f f i c u l t

82

t o determine.

Table 111-8-5:

S o c i e t a l Dangers from LWR Accidents

@

Somatic death/Plwe-yr W-1400 r e f e r s to probabi 1i t l e s and s e v e r i t les In AEC d r a f t r e p o r t Wash-1400 (17). Pmbabi 1it y

-

I

Severity

W-1400

I

w-1400

)Il,x-6x@ W- 1400

3.3

W- 1400 1/3x-3x

Q

W- 1400 60x

@

-6

1.1-10.0

1.1-20.0

1 Haximum Accident Thousand Deaths

-6

5.0

-6 3.7-590.0

-7

1.7-15.0

6.6-120.0

-5

300.0

2.0 -4

I

J

a. b.

Factor of 20x a p p l i e d t o h i g h end (Ref.

c.

i.e., Somatic e f f e c t s are i n same generation of people, . .

Ranges i n Wash-1400

197) nG aenetic e f f e c t s .

If there was 1 a c t o f sabotage i n 1 0 0 p l a n t s o v e r 30 y r expected operation, which k i 1 led 11000, the r i s k o f sabotage would be 4x l a r g e r ?hac t h e h i g h end o f the range shown (1.2 x 10'3)

The table a l s o l i s t s t h e maximum s i z e accident t h a t would be associated w i t h each set of assumptions about s e v e r i t y .

I n order t o very r o u q h l y compare these r i s k s t o those o f a f o s s i l system the r e s u l t s of the f o l l o w i n g c a l c u l a t i o n a r e presented:

Total deaths = acute deaths a f .

accident p l u s f a t a l i t i e s from c h r o n i c e f f e c t s (50% of l a t = n t cancer and IS c f t h y r o i d cases assumed t o be f a t a l )

Range of genetic e f f e c t s from 0 t o 100% o f somatic e f f e c t s i s included,to b u t tne e f f e c t of l o n g - l i v e d radionL*clides i n the environment on f u t u r e generations i s excluded.

Range o f expected values:

1

-

540C deaths ;n 30 y e a r s .

83

I t should be remembered t h a t t h i s does not account f o r somatic and genetic ill-

nesses, property damage and contamination expenses, which w w l d a l s o be t h e r e s u l t o f accidents a t nuclear power plants.

I n a d d i t i o n , t h i s expected value i s

the average number o f deaths per 30 years which would be expected over a very long

period i f the a c t u a l r i s k s are as indicated.

Sabotage and long-term e f f e c t s of waste

storage are a l s o excluded from t h i s sample c a l c u l a t i o n .

The number o f deaths i n any

p a r t i c u l a r 30 year period o f operation o f 100 p l a n t s would most l i k e l y be q u i t e d i f f e r e n t and could range from zero t o m u l t i p l e s of 300,000 deaths.

The reader

i s r e f e r r e d to s e c t i o n 111-8-7 f o r a more d e t a i l e d discussion o f r i s k d i s t r i b u t i o n s .

111-8-5: Management of F i n a l Waste

Both coa! and nuclear systems c r e a t e considerable waste management and disposal problems.

However, the length o f time over which the waste i s o f

concern v a r i e s considerably between coal and nuclear systems.

See s e c t i o n

I11-6-7 for a b r i e f discussion of the imp1 i c a t i o n s o f these v a r i a t i o n s .

Coal p l a n t s w i t h scrubbers c r e a t e a l a r g e volume o f messy m a t e r i a l known as sludge.

Sludge i s composed o f about SO% water and 50% suspended s o l i d s md

various dissolved substances. The exact composition of the sol i d s and dissoived substances depends on the technology o f scrubbing and t h e k i n d of coal.

There

a r e s i g n i f i c a n t concentrations o f t o x i c elements i n the sludge from most coals. The most important elements,

i n terms of human health, seem to be mercury and

arsenic, and the sludge must be managed t o minimize the release o f these elements (87-90). Depending on the technology employed, f l y ash can be c o l l e c t e d along w i t h the s u l f u r and be a p a r t of the sludge or i t can be then added to the sludge o r disposed of

* separately.

c o l l e c t e d separately and This m i x t u r e of sludge

and ash can be piped o r otherwise transported t o ponds which are u n l i n e d or l i n e d t o reduce permeability.

I t can be dewatered and/or compacted by various

techniques t o a l e v e l of about 70% s o l i d s so t h a t i t can be used as f i l l .

The

best and most expensive methods are various p h y s i c a l and chemical treatments which f i x the t o x i c metals and make the sludge s u i t a b l e for f i l l w i t h o u t worry

*

Fluidized-bed systems create a smaller amount o f sludge and ash m i x t u r e w i t h a much higher p r o p o r t i o n o f ash. In a d d i t i o n , elemental s u l f u r i s produced f o r sale o r disposal. The g a s i f i e r a t a low-Btu gas/combined-cycle p l a n t creates mostly ash and elemental s u l f u r . A RFO p l a n t w i t h sLrubber would create a much smaller amount o f s i m i l a r mixture o f sludge and ash,

85

about r e w t t i n g .

I n a l l these cases the aim i s to reduce or e l iminate the

amount o f d i s s o l v e d s o l i d s and t o x i c elements t h a t e n t e r t h e hydrosphere.

I n our reference

coal scrubber system (wet

Iim)

i n Appendix A we have

assumed t h a t the ash and sludge a r e disposed o f together i n a l i n e d pond.

This

reduces the chance o f water p o l l u t i o n b u t i s n o t optimal i n terms of land use. Eventually some reclamation techniques w i l l have t o be a p p l i e d t o the ponds,

i f the land i s t o be reused. Nuclear waste presents a very d i f f e r e n t s e t o f problems.

There are three

types of nuclear waste described i n the tables i n Appendices E-H: mediate and low l e v e l waste.

high, i n t e r -

The volume o f h i g h l e v e l waste ( c o n t a i n i n g most

o f the f i s s i o n products and most o f the r a d i a t i o n a c t i v i t y i n a l l the wastes) is

very small compared t o scrubber sludge, f o r example.

rlowever, the t o x i c i t y

i s very h i g h and the m a t e r i a l reieases enough heat d u r i n g i t s i n i t i a l years o f decay t o r e q u i r e some s o r t o f p r o v i s i o n f o r heat removal. There are two philosophies about h i g h l e v e l waste management. "Storage",

&.

One i s

place the m a t e r i a l i n a l o c a t i o n where i t w i l l be i s o l a t e d from

the environmcnt and can be watched and r e t r i e v e d i f i t s t a r t s t o leak o r i e t t e r means of management are developed l a t e r .

The second i s "Oisposa

'I,

put

the m a t e r i a l i n some remote, s t a b l e geologic o r e x t r a - t e r r e s t r i a

l c c a t i o n where,

although i t would be d i f f i c u t o r impossible t o r e t r i e v e , i t woul

remain out o f

the e a r t h ' s biosphere f o r a s u f f i c i e n t time t o a l l o w the l o n g - l i v e d isotopes t o decay.

No permanent wabte disposal o r storage p l a n

i s i n o p e r a t i o n now,

8

although many are being i n v e s t i g a t e d .

(l9,zO).

Waste i s now temporarily stored

a t Nuclear Fuel Services f a c i l i t i e s (21) and u n t i l there i s a reprocessing p l a n t operating again, spent fuel rods are being stored a t the i n d i v i d u a l pover p l a n t s . (143).

86

The wastes c l a s s i f i e d as intermediate and l o w l e v e l have a very small f r a c t i o n of the t o t a l o r i g i n a l a c t i v i t y .

However, a f t e r a few hundred years most

of the f i s s i o n products i n the h i g h l e v e l wastes w i l l have decayed away, leaving the long-l ived transuranium

isotopes.

(193)

A t t h i s p o i n t the transuranium

c o n t a i n i n g intermediate and l o w l e v e l wastes w i l l be e q u a l l y as dangerous as h i g h l e v e l wastes.

Only about 50% of t h e transuranium waste ( i n the LWR c y c l e ) The r e s t of these wastes a r e a t low l e v e l which,

i s i n the h i g h l e v e l waste.

u n l i k e s o l i d i f i e d high l e v e l waste,

i s very heterogeneous and con-

s i s t s of l i q u i d s , pieces o f machinery, t o o l s , c l o t h i n g ,

i n c i n e r a t e d paper,

=.

Disposal methods for these m a t e r i a l s have not been i n v e s t i g a t e d n e a r l y as w e l l as have ?be means

of disposing of the h i q h l e v e l wastes, althouqh i n the long-term

the l e v e l of d i f f i c u l t y may be g r e a t e r because o f a s i m i l a r trans-uranium cont e n t and a very much l a r g e r and more heterogeneous amount of m a t e r i a l . F i n a l l y , the f a c i l i t i e s themselves can present considerable long-term waste disposal problems.

Strip-mined or otherwise damaged land, t a i l i n g s p i l e s

and ponds, sludge ponds and refuse banks,if

not p r o p e r l y reclaimed,can be an

aesthet c , economic, e c o l o g i c a l and h e a l t h d e f i c i t s f o r many years.

Retired

nuc 1ear f a c i l i t i e s can be the source of c o n t i n u i n g hazard unless p r o p e r l y decommiss oned and dismantled o r otherwise made safe. s i v e (see Section 111-4-5) o r storage. (165

This may be q u i t e expen-

and be the source o f a d d i t i o n a l waste f o r disposal

- 167).

No consideration i s given t o long-term h e a l t h e f f e c t s of nuclear waster r x e

they are deposited i n t o r e t r i e v a b l e storage o r permanently disposed i n t o c e o i ? g i c a l formations, ejected i n t o the sun, e t c . has been chosen a t t h i s time,

Since no long-term waste management olan

i t i s impossible t o properly evaluate the p o t e n t i a l

h e a l t h impacts.

a7

I11-6-6: Ind ices In comparing one system to another i t is u c c a l l y necessary t o make judgements about the r e l a t i v e weights t o be given t o completely d i f f e r e n t kinds o f impacts and emissions.

This i s a very d i f f i c u l t task

unpleasant choices.

There have been many attempts t o q u a n t i f y t h e Impacts and

m environmental q u a l i t y u n i t o r nore

emissions i n t o a s i n g l e unit-sometimes usually, d o l l a r s .

(4,15,206-214,

234)

Developing and u t i l i z i n g such an index t h i s study.

and always involves a r b i t r a r y and

system was not one of the tasks of

However, i t seems appropriate t o comment on possible methods t o

weigh the various impacts and emissions. When cornparins the emissions from a coal power system and a nuclear power system, f o r example, one

Is faced w i t h the problem of cornparing chemical and

radiological pollutants.

One method o f doing t h i s i s t o c a l c u l a t e d i l u t i o n

vuvumes. (208-212)

Most a i r and water pollutants, whether r a d i o l o g i c a l o r

chemical, have a maximum a1 lowable ambient concentration set by government standards. The d i l u t i o n volume i s the amount o f a i r or water t h a t vould be necessary t o d i l u t e a p a r t f c u l a r amount o f emissions t o the concentration set i n the standard.

Below arc some examples o f d i l u t i o n volumes i n a i r .

1.0 Curie o f H-3

---

---

1.0 Curie o f PU-239

1.0 kilogram o i SO2

1.0 k i logram o f NO2

5.0 m i l l i o n cubic meters

-----

1.7 ( 10 ) 7 m i l l i o n cubic meters 12.5 r i l l i o n cubic meters 10.4

nli

11 i o n cubic meters

There a r e several problems w i t h t h i s method.

F i r s t l y , i t i s not a t a l l

c l e a r that the d i f f e r e n t standards have been set w i t h e i t h e r accurate information o r w i t h the same c r i t e r i a .

A d d i t f o n a l l y , these standards do n c t consider thc

88

l i f e t i m e of the substances i n the environment. ambhnt l e v e l s acd t

--IS

They are only designed t o regulate

do not r e f l e c t how long the m a t e r i a l w i l l be i n the environ-

ment and for. what length o f time the d i l u t i o n w i l l be necessary. This may be very important when comparing radiosotopes w i t h chemicals.

A

kg o f S s f o r example w i l l r e q u i r e a d i l u t i o n volume o f 12.5 m l l l i o n cubic meters

a t f i r s t , b u t a f t e r a few nours o r days w i l l be completely degraded.

C i o f plu-

tonturn, gn the o t h e r hand, would r e q u i r e l . 7 ( l O ) 7 m i l l i o n cubic meters, but

I t does not degrade appreci-bly I n any memingful time span.

Thus, should i t

remain i r l -,,e a i r , the plutonium w i l l i n d e f i n i t e l y r e q u i r e t h i s volume f o r

Of course i t i s u r t l i k e l y t o remain suspended i n the a i r , b u t

dilution.

the impor-

t a n t p o i n t i s t h a t radioisotopes degrade a t the r a t e o f t h e i r r a d i a t i o n h a l f - l i f e and no f a s t e r w h i l e many chemical p o l l u t a n t s degrade q u i t e q u i c k l y i n the environment.

Some chemical p o l l u t a n t s , such as t o x i c metals, may a l s o have long environ-

mental residencetimes.

A f u r t h e r problem i n using d i l u t i o n volumes i s t h a t both

radioisotopes and chemical pollutants o f t e n degrade i c t o substances of equal o r greater t o x i c i t y ti1.m the o r i g i n a l substance.

F i n a l l y , d i l u t i o n volumes do not

account f o r synergisms i.e. - substances can a c t i n cbacert t o cause an e f f e c t much l a r g e r than the sum o f the e f f e c t s o f each substance a c t i n g s i n g l y .

The u l t i m a t e

absurdity would be t o have a l i t e r of a i r i n which a l l the thousands o f possible p o l l u t a n t s are contained a t t h e i r legal concentrations.

The p o l l u t a n t s would e f f e c t i v e l y be

d i l u t i n g each other and the t o t a l environmental and h e a l t h impact would be very unce r t a in

.

Cautioning the reader t o keep i n mind the problems o f using d i l u t i o n volumes, we have compared the r o u t i n e emissions o f systems i n t a b l e 111-6-6.

i

wedloloot' -

Ia.

'-

b226.228

@

H-3, K r - 6 . Pu@

rgs

rnlutian kbluntes

0.02

Assumes 40% Ra-228,

- 0.7 60%

65.0

- 7,000

Ra-226.

b.

Assumes a1 1 release

c.

These values should be considered only as gross approximations (see text). Only considers routine emissions. Does irot account for enwironmental lifetfme of these materials.

label led frans-Uranium i s plutonfum-239.

90

We have p m i d e d a person-day loss figure for health impacts.

This i s

eftm used to weigh the relatiwe m o r t a l i t y and morbidity rates and t o account

few the awerage severity of the d i s a b i l i t i e s .

Many studies convert person-

&ys l o s t into a dollar figure as a method of comparing health impacts w i t h other iqmcts. t we

This may be a severe case o f not seeing the forest because of the trees.

should t r y t o maximize i s the q u a l i t y of human l i f e , not one p a r t i c u l a r

msource. In many cases

loso

i t i s d i f f i c u l t to assess the impact of a p a r t i c u l a r

or gain on the q u a l i t y o f l i f e , e.g.

the e x t i n c t i o n of an animal species,

but very few would argue that I l l - h e a l t h i s not a debit under almost a l l situations.

This should not be forgotten when i l l - h e a l t h costs are calculated.

The

days l o s t to a m C m r who has been k i l l e d cannot be returned t o h i m by a goernn m t Benefit check, even though accounted for i n the overall economic tabulation.

Wealth

Is not completely a buyable or salable commodity.

The development o f accurate, relevant and usatle indices should have a high p r i o r i t y .

This report and others l i k e i t should be o f value as input t o

the formulation o f these indices.

91

I 11-8-7:

Glebal and Social Effects There are a multitude of environmental e f f e c t s associated w i t h energy use and underst&

w i t h varying degrees ob inexactitude.

Some of these effects

m y be important and, may owersttadow the b e t t e r understood e f f e c t s l i s t e d i n

the tables i n Appedices A

- H.

k a l , reqianal and global changes i n climate hawe been associated w i t h I

emissions of particulates, C02 and heat. nature can be s a i d about

#mevet, l i t t l e of a q u a n t i t a t i v e

the Qose-response

tants &ad c l i m a t i c change.

relationships linking these p o l l u -

(48)

Acid r a i n and long-term build-up of a c i d s o i l frm a i r p o l l u t a n t s creates

ecological and economic impacts o f a magnitude yet t o be precisely determined. Atmospheric bui Id-up and food-chain concentration o f radionuclides and other

toxic materials may besom a problem.

(Some beliewe, for example, t h a t the

ircinogenic potential of tobacco i s due to nuclear weapons fallout.)

(Ref.235) Energy

systems cause local changes i n ecological relationships which may iead t o undes i rable perturbations o f important b i o l o g i c a l systems.

(49)

The impact o f an increased environmental load of chemical and radionuclide mutagens on genetic disease and evolution i s not understood.

In addition,

synergistic e f f e c t s o f pollutants may lead t o more carcinogenesis and other diseases than would be estimated by examining each p o l l u t a n t separately.

A l l of the above e f f e c t s e x i s t but the data are much too preliminary and scanty t o make any d e f i n i t e conclusions about t h e i r magnitudes. close scrutiny

SO

A l l deserve

that we w i l l be able t o perceive any adverse e f f e c t s before

an over-dependence on a p a r t i c u l a r offending system makes orderly change d i ff i c u l t. I n addition, there i s a v a r i e t y o f social e f f e c l s associated w i t h energy

92

twtearr.

Stme of these effects am be predicted eRQ observed and,with

planning

end allocatien of resources, m i t i g a t e d to a great extent.

not -11

understood or

are

proper

Others am

not subject t o obvious solution.

tke constructfon and operation o f power plants, mines and other f a c l l l t i e s

-

kes an impact on local economics, soda1 services, hwsing etc. especially i n areas suth as the western range states where there has been l i t t l e developnwtnt. There is also a competition for scarce resources (e.$.

for devslapment. mnsiderable 1-1

land

workers and water) needed

use and s i t i n g pmblerss can be sewere and be the cause of

disruption and unrest.

The existence of f i s s l e material i n nuclear fuel cycles creates another type of social problem.

The esttent t o which such material can be safeguarded

against diversion attempts by criminal o r t e r r o r i s t groups i s unknown, as i s the l i k l i h o o d o f any group attempting such an anti-social act.

In Appendices E

-H

we have l i s t e d the amounts a f material suitable for making nuclear explosives. The d i f f i c u l t y o f stealing material or using i t to fabricate a nuclear explosive

(or dispersal device) varies considerably between fuel cycle steps and cycles. We have not t r i e d t o d e t a i l these d i f f i c u l t i e s but only t o l i s t the amounts a t each fuel cycle step. I n addition, t o some extent, the use o f nuclear power changes the likelihood o f international nuclear c o n f l i c t because of the ease i n which nuclear reactor fuel and by-products can be used t o make weapons. divided neatly i n t o e l e c t r i c power and weapons. have the other.

Nuclear energy cannot be Having one capability i s t o

However, the extent t o which unilateral decisions about nuclear

power taken by the U.S.A.

might influence other countries i s not a t e l l certain.

Altering the international demand f o r energy commodities such as petroleum, uranium and scarce metals f o r reactor construction might also push world p o l i t i c a l and economic patterns toward less stabi 1 ity.

93

These kinds of social, p o l i t i c a l and economic problems are p o t e n t i a l l y severe and a consideration o f them should be brought into any f u l l a c c m n t i n g

o f the impacts and costs of energy systems. F i n a l l y , there are two more s u b t l e s o c i a l issues which need t o be addressed. The f i r s t , mentioned ' b r i e f l y i n section I l l - B - 4 ,

i s r i s k distribution.

comparing a l t e r n a t i v e means t o reach the same objective,as

In

i n the case o f

choosing between d i f f e r e n t e l e c t r i c power systems, the d i s t r l b u t i o n o f impacts over time, distance and population may be q u i t e d i f f e r e n t i n d i f f e r e n t systems. To merely t o t a l the impacts for each system does not provide enough information about when, where and t o whom the impacts w i l l occur. Consider the choice between b u i l d i n g a nuclear o r c o a l - f i r e d power p l a n t .

I f one t r i e s t o compare the h e a l t h impacts, the d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r i s k s and impacts i s so d i f f e r e n t i n each system t h a t i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o understand the s i g n i f i cance o f the d i f f e r e n c e i n the magnitude of impacts.

Coal e l e c t r i c systems

seem t o have a r e l a t i v e l y constant impact due t o a i r p o l l u t i o n , mine cave-ins, etc.

Nuclear power systems have r e l a t i v e l y low r o u t i n e impact but have a small

chance of very large accidents which could k i l l and i n j u r e a large number o f people.

Should we b u i l d a system t h a t w i l l k i l l 30x persons ( f o r example) i n

i t s l i f e t i m e w i t h r e l a t i v e c e r t a i n t y or the o t h e r which might k i l l lOOx but more l i k e l y w i l l k i l l o n l y x over i t s l i f e t i m e ?

(This i s an o v e r - s i m p l i f i c a t i o n ,

for there i s a c t u a l l v a series of possible nuclear power p l a n t accidents ranging from very s l i g h t t o very catastrophic.)

The decision i s not easy.

Most i n d i v i d u a l s who are asked t o make decisions i n v o l v i n g high s e v e r i t y / low probabi 1 i t y outcomes are r i s k averse, i .e. they w i ! 1 not choose any a1 ternat i v e that has an appreciable chance o f a b i g loss unless the chance o f possible benefits i s very much larger.

Large i n s t i t u t i o n s , s u c h as governments,tend t o

be less r i s k averse,although there i s evidence t o show that they a r e a l s o r i s k

94

averse when faced w i t h p o s s i b l e s e v e r i t i e s which would be as c a t a s t r o p h i c t o them as a much smaller l o s s would be t o an I n d i v i d u a l . such a s i t u a t i o n .

Nuclear power may be

Thus, although t h e average (expected value) impact o f coal

systems may be greater, the amount of s o c i a l , economic and p o l i t i c a l d i s r u p t i o n t h a t would accompany the h e a l t h damzges i n c u r r e d from a nuclear power p l a n t accident may be a t such a l e v e l t h a t even governments w i l l a c t i n a r i s k averse The u n c e r t a i n t i e s and stakes may be t o o h i g h for

manner and choose coal.

i n d i v i d u a l a c t i n g i n groups t o undertake.

I n a d d i t i o n , although such d e c i s i o n s

are made by the group,the a c t u a l r i s k s and b e n e f i t s a r e not spread e q u a l l y throughout the population.

The coal miner and t h e person l i v i n g near a nuclear

o r coal power p l a n t have a much d i f f e r e n t r i s k than the c i t y d w e l l e r l i v i n g upwind from a l l the p l a n t s .

I t i s not c l e a r t h a t using the average r i s k i s com-

p l e t e l y equitable. Cost/benefi t and r i s k j a n a l y s i s approaches have been attempted over and over again (15,191,199-203)

f o r these questions, b u t the b a s i c questions o f r i s k d i s t r i

b u t i o n and e q u i t y have n o t been solved. The l a s t s o c i a l issue t o be discussed here i s a g e n e r a l i z a t i o n of the r i s k d i s t r i b u t i o n issues discussed above.

This i s the problem o f time.

Just as the

t i m e d i s t r ; b u t i o n o f accident r i s k v a r i e s f o r d i f f e r e n t systems, the t i m e d i s t r i -

b u t i o n o f o t h e r costs and impacts can have s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a t i o n s .

Str:p-mined

land, nuclear waste, released radioisotopes and t o x i c metals a1 1 continue t o e x e r t costs and impacts well beyond the t i m e the power systems t h a t created them have been shut down.

I r r e v e r s i b l e cwnmmi h e : - 1 t 5 and J e p l e L i u i i cif resources

a l s o create impacts on the f u t u r e .

The use o f economic d i s c o u n t i n g ( t o account

f o r the o p p o r t u n i t y cost o f c a p i t a l ) does not always seem an e q u i t a b l e way t o deal w i t h :3ese problems.

Our r e s p o n s i b i l i t y t o the f u t u r e , o r ,

the problems o f inter-temporal e q u i t y , should be confronted.

95

i n o t h e r words,

References Abbreviations Used i n References

AEC ANL 8AT BNL BOM CEQ 00 I €PA EPP- Ford

ERDA EPR I FEA FEA-P I FPC HW JPL NAE tJAS NASA NRC ORNL 0ST UARL CEP

Atomic Energy Conmission Argonne Na t ional Laborator ies , Argonne , I 11ino is Battel l e Laboratories, Columbus, Ohio and Richland, Washington Brooklxaven National Laboratory, Upton. New York Bureau o f Mines Counc i 1 on Envi ronmental Qual it y Department of the I n t e r i o r Environmental Protection Agency Energy Policy Project of the Ford Foundation Energy Research and DeveloqInent A4ministration E l e c t r i c Power Research I n s t i t u t e , Palo A l t o , California Federa 1 Energy Admi n ist r at ion Federal Energy Administration, Project Independence Task Force Re:- I r t Federal Power Commission Department o f Health, Educatim and Welfare Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, C a l i f o r n i a National Academy of Engineering Mat iona 1 Academy o f Sc iences (NRCo: Na t iona 1 Research Counc i 1) National Aeronautics and Space Admi n i s t r a t Ion Nuc 1ear Regu1a tory Comniss ion Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee O f f ice o f Science b Techno1ogy United A i r c r a f t Research Laboratories, East Hartford, Connecticut Cornel Energy Project, I t h l c a , New York Format Used i n References

"Title",

Jourqal

, Volume:

Article:

Author,,

Book :

Author, T i t l e , Pub1 isher, Date.

Report:

Author, "Title",

page

(or only page), Date.

-

Agency or Laboratory o r Project, Report #, Date.

1.

"Environmental Impacts, E f f i c i e n c y and Cost of Energy Supply and End Use," Hittman Associates, Inc., Columbia, Maryland, HIT-593, prepared for CEQ, NSf, and EPA, vot. 1: 11/74, vol. 2: 1/75.

2.

"Energy and the Environment:

3.

"Fuel Cycles f o r E l e c t r i c Power Generation, Parts I and I I , Towards Comprehensive Standards: The E l e c t r i c Power Case," Teknekron, Inc., Berkeley, Ca., prepared for EPA, EEEO-103-106, 11/74.

4.

"Environmental EPA, 4/73.

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173.

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ANL-7657, 2/70.

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S o l u t i o n o r Dream,''

of

AEC Los A a m 5 Nuclear

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II

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108

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author

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H u l l , A. P.,

P o l l u t i o n Sources Reevaluated,"

Environ. Science

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211.

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212.

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213.

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214.

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215.

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216.

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217.

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218.

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Annual Report o f the CEQ, 1972.

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AEC, Wash-1281, 1/0ec/73.

American Gas Associaticn,

1/74.

7/74 219.

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220.

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Key t o Clean Energy,"

O f f i c e o f Coal Research, D o l ,

1973-74. 221.

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E P R I , 5/74.

109

Office of

222.

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223.

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224.

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225.

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226.

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228.

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229.

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230.

F r i e d , E. R., e t a l . , Energy and U.S. Foreign P o l i c y , Brookings I n s t i t u t e , EPP-Ford, B a l l lnger, Cambrldge, Mass., 197%.

231.

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232.

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233

Pohl, R. D., "Nuclear Energy: H e a l t h E f f e c t s o f Thorium 230," Physics Dept., Cornel1 U n i v e r s i t y , Ithaca, New York, 1975.

234.

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235.

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234.

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Nuclear Newz, 3/75.

@ lJournal

-

FEA-PI,

11/74.

"Tobacco R a d i o a c t i v i t y and Cancer i n Smokers," Am. Scien. 63:404,

110

Appendices R

-H

The b u l k of the data c o l l e c t e d i n t r r i s study i s presented i n t h e f o l l o w i n g

24 tables.

Unless otherwise stated, t h e costs, resource requirements, and impacts

are s t a t e d per e l e c t r i c a l magewatt-year (MWe-yr) n e t output a t the power p l a n t . Therefore, t o c a l c u l a t e t h e impacts for a 1000-MWe p l a n t o p e r a t i n g a t 75% capac i t y for one year, f o r example, t h e i n d i v i d u a l impacts l i s t e d i n a t a b l e should be m u l t i p l i e d by 750. scaling.)

(See i n t r o d u c t i o n to Chapter 1 1 1 for a d i s c u s s i o n of

For one t i m e items such a; c o n s t r u c t i o n labor o r m a t e r i a l s , o r power

p l a n t land, the q u a n t i t y should be m u l t i p l i e d by 750 x l i f e t i m e which i s u s u a l l y

30 years unless noted otherwise.

Power p l a n t 0 5 M cost i s based on r a t e d

capacity and i s i n $/MWe each year.

T h i s annual cost i s $/MWe-yr x MWe r a t e d

capaci t y o f IO3 MWe. The range i n d i c a t e d f o r some costs and impacts r e s u l t s from the s c a t t e r o f values i n the l i t e r a t u r e .

We have t r i e d t o a d j u s t the values when p o s s i b l e t o

account f o r the d i f f e r e n c e s due t o d i f f e r e n t assumptions.

I n many cases there

was n o t enough i n f o r m a t i o n a v a i l a b l e t o evaluate a l l the assumptions and,in those cases where a l a r g e discrepancy s t i l l e x i s t e d between sources,we have noted I t i s tempting t o assign a p r o b a b i l i t y d i s -

the o r i g i n a l references d i r e c t l y . t r i b u t i o n t o the ranges.

This would be improper, however, because i n most cases

the ranges are composed o f a very few separate values which a r e not a l l independent.

(The studies a l l quote each o t h e r . )

Unless otherwise noted, the data and most o f t e n from references 1

-

(See Ref.

236

f o r another recent review.)

have been compiled from references I

- 40

9.

The costs and impacts have been categorized i n the t a b l e by f u e l c y c l e step.

-_

The footnotes t o the f i r s t t a b l e f o r each system ( i ,e. Tables A - 1 ,

-

B-1,

e t c . ) contain d e s c r i p t i o n s o f e x a c t l y which f a c i l i t i e s and operations are i n -

eluded i n each f u e l c y c l e step. 111

Explanation o f Symbols and U n i t s Yost of the values are presented i n exponen+ial form: For example, 2.9 5.9 -4 = 0.00029 0.00059 1 . 6 8.0 +4 = 16,000 80,000 A dash indicates t h a t t h i s box i s not relevant t o t h i s system. 0 A zero indicates i.,at there i s an unknown but n e g l i b l e Impact or cost. ? A Question mark indicates t h a t the iinpact or cost may be important b u t i t s value i s uncertain.

-

--

-

-

t a b l e s 1:

be Mwe KwHe MH Eksth-yr

MT 2

m

k i lowatt e l e c t r i c megawatt e l e c t r i c k i l o w a t t e l e c t r i c hour man hour megawatt thermal year m e t r i c ton square lneter

M2MT

m i l l i o n m e t r i c ton

2 m

square meter

Primary Efficiency

Anci 1 l a r y Net E f f i c i e n c y

Energy contained i n the fuel i n MWth-y: so t h a t 1 MWe-yr i s produced a t the generating p l a n t Simple thermal of fuel e f f i c i e n c y (See Ref. 51-52 for a discussion of more sophisticated e f f i c i e n c y measures.) Energy needed cxterna 1 t o primary f u e l (MWth-yr/MWe-yr) Primary energy e f f i c i e n c y corrected for a n c i l l a r y energy use assuming a n c i l l a r y energy could be converted t o e l e c t r i c i t y a t t o t a l primary e f f i c i e n c y o f s p e c i f i c approach

Tables 2: NOx sox HC Other Sol id. Radioactive

Tables

nitrogen oxides s u l f u r oxides hydrocarbons (includes aldehydes) mostly carbon monoxide except where noted High l e v e l = grea’er than 106 x MPC Intermediate + 10 t o IO4 x MPC Low = l o 4 t o 10 x MPC (see Refs. 3 and 189)

b

3:

Person-days l o s t :

Societal r i s k : Maximum Size:

Calculated as 6000 days per death (premature as w e l l a s acute deaths) (Ref. 1),-50 days per i n j u r y o r i l l n e s s & 100 days per cancer (except where noted).

Total number o f deaths o r d i s a b i l i t i e s expected per Mwe-yr i n the e n t i r e country (except where noted). Estimated maximum f o r a f a c i l i t y , not i n u n i t s o f h e - y r .

F i s s i l e material:

Uranium 235 o r 253 enriched t o 20% o r more and a l l plutonium 239 and 241.

112

The category marked " I n Storage" r e f e r s t o an assumed two month supply of f f s s i l e material a t f a b r i c a t f o n and reprocessing plants. The amount a t reactors is the a v e r a g e f i s s i l e c o n t e n t over the f u e l exposure period. To t h i s could be added the f i s s i l e material i n cooling ponds a t reactor s i t e s . The t o t a l material I n storage is a measure of the f i s s i l e material which a c t u a l l y leaves the fuel cycle for t h i s reactor and i s sent t o storage o r ss?d t o supply another reactor. The category, "In Transi t" refers t o f i s s i l e material which passes through f a b r i c a t i o n and reprocessing plants. The t o t a l t r a n s i t amount r e f e r s t o the m a t e r i a l which leaves the reprocessing p l a n t for a l l destinations. A l l f i g u r e s have the u n i t s o f kilograms per Mwe-yr.

112a

REPRODUCIBILI!lY OF THE ORIGINAL PAGE IS POOR

Table P-1 a.

Footnotes

Except for " f u e l cost", deep-mined c o a l .

q i m t i t i e s g i v e n a r e f o r N o r t h e r n Appalachian

Northwester-n s u r f a c e mines were considered as an a l t e r n a -

t i v e source of coal, and resource u t i l i z a t i o n f o r t h i s type o f m i n i n g i s included i n the a p p r o p r i a t e f o o t n o t e s below. i l i n e l i f e b.

i s assumed t o be 20 years.

Only about 2 / 3 ' s o f the N o r t h e r n Appalachian c o a l p r o d u c t i o n i s cleaned: q u a n t i t i e s g i v e n r e p r e s e n t average q u a n t i t i e s for t h e sum o f the cleaned and uncleaned p o r t i o n s . cleaned.

c.

Northwest surface-mined c o a l i s t y p i c a l l y n o t

F x i l i t y l i f e t i m e assumed i s 20 years.

Although some c o a l i s t r a n s p o r t e d by water ( b a r g e ) , about 70% i s shipped by r a i l :

q u a n t i t i e s g i v e n here assume a l l c o a l i s shipped by r a i l , w i t h

a 50-50 s p l i t between the u n i t t r a i n and ? o n - u n i t t r a i n modes, r e f l e c t i n g c u r r e n t trends toward the u n i t t r a i n concept. g) i s considered a t t h i s and subsequent stages. d.

N a t i o n a l average coal (Table A-2,

note

T r a i n l i f e t i m e assumed i s 30 years.

Q u a n t i t i e s g i v e n a r e f o r a coal-steam power p l a n t w i t h s u l f u r removal Cram the s t a c k gas by wet l i m e scrubbing and n a t u r a l d r a f t e v a p o r a t i v e c o o l i n g tower f o r n a t i o n a l average cob:.

e.

Represents q u a n t i t ' 2 s a t t r i b u t a b l e (where a v a i l a b l e ) t o on-s: t e d i s p o s a l o f bottom ash, recovered f l y ash and l i m e sludge f o r n a t i o n a l aveiage c o a l .

f.

From Reference (211, which uses methodology g i v e n i n Reference ( 2 7 ) . T h i s f i g u r e i n c l u d e s i n t e r e s t d u r i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n a t 10.5% as d e l l as The n e t o r r e a l i n t e r e s t r a t e i s 4.259

(1.105/1.06)

6'1. i n f l a t i o n r a t e .

f o r 3.5 y r s ,

i.e.,

$349/k\.i

x

1 . 0 4 2 5 ' ' ~ = $404/kW. T h i s expresses c o s t s p r i o r t o p l a n t s t a r t u p i n mid-1974 (1974s). g.

I n accordance w i t h economicgroundrules developed by 1PL ( 2 8 ) , t h e c o n t r i b u t i m

o f f u e l c o s t t o t h e c c s t o f g e n e r a t i n g e l e c t r i c i t y i s eqJal t o t h e presen: i.aIue o f t h e c o s t o f f u e l purchased over the. l i f e o f t h e p l a n t m d l t i p l i e d by the annual c a p i t a l i z a t i o n f a c t o r .

I14

The most current data on the cost o f coal to e l e c t r i c u t i l i t i e s from Reference (31), Is 8 8 . 9 ~ / m i l l i o n Btu for December, 1974.

To a d j u s t t h i s

to mid-1974 d o l l a r s , the increase from the June 1974 p r i c e (69.5c/million Btu) was d e f l a t e d by the increase i n the Consumer's p r i c e index (6%) from June through December, 1974, g i v i n g a mid-19'4

83.9c/mi 11 ion Btu.

The general expression f o r e l e c t r i c i t y c o s t given i n

Reference (28) is:

1 E l e c t r i c 1t y

-

Cost

,'I

KwHe

-

EC

CRF x I T

EC CRF

-

-

+

CRF

' I

- -

KwHe

8.76 PL where :

d o l l a r c o s t of coal of

(.os

PVF

- -

KwHe

IT

+ N)

+

I

KwHe

CRF x ?VF

(29.:

G?L)

8.76 PL

8.76 PL

e l e c t r i c i t y c o s t i n Mills/KwHe c a p i t a l recovery f a c t o r

-

r (I+rI

"-

r =

( I+r 1 the annual r e t u r n on borrowed c a p i t a l

n =

the number o f years f o r pay back (usually equals expected p l a n t l i f e )

IT

-

O-OSIT =

p l a n t c a p i t a l cost i n d c l l a r s , including i n t e r e s t during construction Factor accounts f o r ani - 1 operating cost due t o insurance, depreciat i o n , p r o f i t , taxes, etc.

G = f u e l cost i n $ / l o 6

BTU

P =

p l a n t peak power i n KW

L =

annual load f a c t o r

rl =

e f f i c i e n c y o f power p l a n t = (output e l e c t r i c a l energy/input thermal energy)

N =

PVF =

.

p l a n t 0 5 M costs i n $/year. the present value f a c t o r = the present value o f a s t r e a m or costs growing a t an annual r a t e o f (1

115

+

i ) , w i t h the f i r s t payment o f

-

one dol l a r made today = 9-i

i

= Long-term annual i n f l a t i o n r a t e (0.06).

9

=

the annual discount rate.

I n t h i s r e p o r t i t i s assumd for the coal systems that: ( w i t h 75% debt financing

0.105

n = p

=

30 years 6 :O

Kw,

PVF = 17.5

CRF = 0.1105

L = 0.75,

rl

a t 9% and 25% e q u i t y f i n a n c i n g a t 15%)

= 0.37

g = r = 0.105

Therefore the e l e c t r i c i t y c o s t equation may be w r i t t e n as:

0 6 M Cost

Equation A-1: Capital Cost

EC = 1.69 x lo'*

x IT

+ 2.97

x

Fuel Cost

loe7 x

(0.05 I T + N) +

G

17.9

In the present case: IT *

4.04

G = and

:.

8 (from f i r s t row of table: 404WkWe x IO6kWe)

x 10

0-839$/MBtu (from second paragraph of t h e footnote). 7 4

N = 1.31

x 10 $/yr (fn? second row of tcble:

cac t a l EC

=

6-83

06M

+

9.89

+

1.31~10$/MWe/yr x 1dMWe)

fuel

15.0

=

31.70 m i 1 Is/KwHe

Therefore the t o t a l c o n t r i b u t i o n o f the c o s t of f u e l to the c o s t o f e l e c t r i c i t y for the coal-scrub

system i s 15 mills/KwHe.

The p o r t i o n o f t h i s

cost a t t r i b u t a b l e t o transport was c a l c u l a t e d from Reference (21), and the p o r t i o n due to coal cleaning from Reference h.

From Reference

(4).

(571, assuming 1-03 MMT/yr miner. From Peference (60) the

fu-1 cycle c a p i t a i cost f o r a Northwestern surface m;ae i s

4

0 g M cost $1.26 x 10 / M e - v r , (based on a

2

9.2 MMT/yr northwestern surface mine).

From Reference

104/~,,,~-,,r,

and 0 S M labor requirement, 1.84 x 10 MW/Mwe-vr.

investments were discounted a t 12% per annum

i.

$2.41

(4).

116

Deferred wipe caoi tal

per source documents.

From References (1) S throughout. using

k.

(7).

Energy numbers a r e for n a t i o n a l average coal

E l e c t r i c i t y requirements are converted to thermal energy requirements

37% power

F r m Reference

p l a n t thermal e f f i c i e n c y and 90% transmission thermal e f f i c i e n c y .

(8).

Construction m a t e r i a l s and c o n s t r u c t i o n labor

rzquirements f o r coal cleaning a r e included i n the corresponding mining totals.

For surface mining the c o n s t r u c t i o n l a b o r requirements are:

Engineering = 1.13 MH/Mbleyr,Fiela S k i l l e d Manual =

for a t o t a l o f would be:

Supervision =

3.76 MH/MWeyr, F i e l d

1.90 MH/HWeyr and F i e l d U n s k i l l e d Manual = 16.9 MH/MWeyr

23.7

Structural =

MH/Mwe-yr.

4.47

-2

10

Construction m a t e r i a l s r e q u i r e d MT/MWeyr, Major Equipment =

0.3

a t o t a l metals requirement of

MT/Mwe-yr.

and

‘37).

MT/MWeyr f o r

Those d e s i r i n g a more d e t a i l e d

breakdown o f these requirements a r e r e f e r r e d t o References

(351,

0.26

(321, (33), (34)

However, the most complete d e t a i l e d breakdown o f con-

s t r u c t i o n labor and m a t e r i a l s , as w e l l as 0 & M c o s t s and labor requirements

for a l l our study systems except t h e f l u i d i z e d - b e d system,

i s i n Ref.

c u l a t e t o t a l m a t e r i a l or manhours, m u l t i p l y d a t a i n t a b l e by

1.

from Reference

(33).

m.

from Reference

(7).

n.

included i n power p l a n t 0 E. M cost.

0.

included i n corresponding power p l a n t quanti t i e s .

P*

lime requirement f o r scrubber.

q*

derived from References (11,

r.

Refers t o land undermined/Hwe-yr, by subsidence.

3 m2 /Mwe-yr.

x 10

750

(36). To

MWe x 30 years.

(31, (41, (7) 2nd (8).

(21,

approximately

1/3

t o a l l o f which i s a f f e c t e d

For s t r i p mining o f Northwestern Coal approximately (1.4 are d i s t u r b e d by s t r i p mining.

-

This impact i s , however,

very dependent on the thickness o f the coal seams mined (they a r e t y p i c a l l y q u i t e t h i c k i n the Northwest cp t o

100 f t and about 10 times t h i c k e r than

Eastern c o a l ) ; f o r the n a t i o n a l average s t r i p mine about 2.5 x 1O’MWe-yr a r e d i s t r i b u t e d , w i t h some regions (e.g.,

Appalachian)

cal-

2.1)

4 2

averaging as h i g h as 3.2 x 10 m /Elre-yr.

Northwestern s u r f a c e mined

c o a l i s t y p i c a l l y not cleaned due t o r e l a t i v e l y l o w s u l f u r c o n t e n t . Deep mine openings a r e assumed t o be b a c k f i l l e d to prevent permanent land committment.

For s u r f a c e mines

some ( r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l ) permanent

land use i s l i k e l y t o be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e p i t .

I f t h e mines a r e n o t

revegetated p r o p e r l y , a d u s t bowl can be c r e a t e d and t h e t e m p o r a r i l y d i s t r i buted l a n d c o u l d be considered more i n t h e permanently committed category.

s.

A c t u a l l y some l a n d i s p r o b a b l y t e m p o r a r i l y committed and not d i s t u r b e d , i t i s assumed here t h a t t h e only such l a n d i s for f u t u r e waste s t o r a g e

( i.e. eventual l y d i s t u r b e d ) . t.

This f i g u r e assumes a r a i l r i g h t o f way o f 50 f t ; we assume about l / 3 o f t h i s i s a c t u a l l y occupied by the r a i 1 bed.

u.

A c t u a l l y some o f the p l a n t s i t e i s undoubtedly u n d i s t u r b e d , b u t the und i s t u r b e d p o r t i o n of the t o t a l i s l i k e l y much l e s s than for n u c l e a r f a c i l i t i e s , which r e q u i r e s i z a b l e e x c l u s i o n zones and f o r which the comm i t t e d , b u t u n d i s t u r b e d l a n d use category i s more r e l e v a n t .

(3)

P r i m a r i l y from --ferences

w.

Net e f f i c i e n c y equals t o t a l primary e f f i c i e n c y c o r r e c t e d f o r a n c i l l a r y energy use.

x.

and

(7).

v.

For example, n e t e f f i c i e n c y = 1 MWe/(2.85 + 0.063) =

0.344.

Power p l a n t 0 + M c o s t i s based on i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y and i s i n $ / y r . l a b e l i s $/MWe-yr.

Thus, t h e

To f i n d 0 t M c o s t per year, m u l t i p l y by nameplate r a t i n g i n

MWe. y.

The t o t a l c a p i t a l charge can be found by adding the p l a n t and f u e l c a p i t a l charges.

The t o t a l f u e l c a p i t a l charge i s m u l t i p l i e d by the p l a n t l o a d

factor, 0.75, since the data i n the t a b l e i s based on c o s t p e r kWe i n s t a l l e d c a p a c i t y . The t o t a l c a p i t a : charge for both the c o a l and u t i l i t y i n d u s t r y i s :

404 + 0.75 x 119

-

493S/kWe.

1 I8

(S/kWe)TOTAL=

e

e

e e

e e

e

e

I

e e

1

-

e

I

l

e

l I

I I

e

e

e

e

I I

I

8

I

n

I

ub

0

-

Ew

.

Table A-2:

a.

Footnotes

These values are for eastern underground coal mining.

For western surface mining:

Air:

NOX

1.1 -1 MT/Mk-yr

sox

8.1 -3

Part.

7.3 -2

HC

1.3 -2

Other

7.0 -3

Western coal i s or: cleaned.

Water: S i l t Other

Solid:

1.Cg

- 4.0

3.7 8.6

-

MT/MWe-yr

60.0 +2 (high end includes

-

o w rburdcn? ' iT/MWe y r See references 58, 59, 61.

See note c.

b.

High end of range includes no a c i d control.

C.

High end of range includes s o l i d s from a c i d control.

d.

Two t h i r d s o f the coal Is p h y s i c a l l y cleaned t o remove 40% o f the t o t a l s u l f u r .

See note b.

A t the cleaning p l a n t a 90% removal e f f i c i e n c y i s assumed for coal burned on

(4).

site e.

High values are f o r releases without environmental c o n t r o l s .

(3,4)

Over 958

of t h i s release i s composed of suspended coal i n "black water" f r o m the cleaning plant.

f.

0.1

-

1.0% loss i n transport.

I f the higher number i s more accurate, t h i s i s

the source of the l a r g e s t amount o f p a r t i c u l a t e s by weight i n a l l the coai cycles.

However, because o f the differences i n size d i s t r i b u t i o n s i t may not

be the most important i n terms of h e a l t h e f f e c t s . 9-

(129)

The ranges o f emissions f o r the power p l a n t correspond t o the f o l l o w i n g ranges ot c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s f o r "national average coal":

2.5 1d

-

3.0% s u l f u r

- 125 ash

11,600

-

12,500 Btu/lb.

120

The range i n power p l a n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s :

80

- 90% removal o f s u l f u r

99

37% 0

- 99.5% removal

(65-86)

i n scrubber

of p a r t i c u l a t e s by weight

thermal e f f i c i e n c y

- 67% of

the coal i s cleaned to remove 40% of the t o t a l s u l f u r .

NOx emissions

correspond t o the emissions from the best a v a i l a b l e new b o i l e r s ( 0 . " I b / m i l l i o n Btu) t o new b o i l e r s w i t h combusion modifications (0.35

I b / m i l l i o n Btu) (15.77-79,

85). h.

See ref.

5.

i. From power p l a n t and cooling tower.

j.

65% sludge and 35% ash.

k.

There could be a i r p o l l u t i o n from burning coal mine refuse banks (see t a b l e

A-3).

There could a l s o be a i r p o l l u t i o n (mostly p a r t i c u l a t e s ) from ash and

sludge transport and disposal.

1.

The sludge has a pH o f about

9, 0.3

-

1.4 ppm t o x i c metals,

3555%

and would g r e a t l y exceed most water q u a l i t y standards i f released.

III-B-5.

m.

solids See section

(65, 87-30)

The t o t a l volume o f waste could be reduced by one t h i r d t o one h a l f i f the sludge were t o be dewatered and compacted. ma:erial

I t could a l s o be used as a f i l l

f o r open space o r construction depending on the degree of compaction

and dewatering.

(88, 90)

n.

See references 5, 80, 209.

0.

Primary CO except where noted.

P.

B i o l o g i c o x i d a t i o n demand, dissolved s o l i d s and a l k a l i n i t y are not noted, but suspended sol i d s , and a c i d i t y are included. Dissolved s o l i d s from cooling tower d r i f t could be added and i s approximately

0.3 MT/MWe-yr.

121

0

f cub

a a o

w

ub(L

n *

U

L V Y

W

5

c

-d I22

Table A-3:

a.

Footnotes

Underground eastern coal mining. For western surface mining:

Accidental deaths:

2.2

- 4.1

Inj ur 1es

3.4

-

( 10)-4/Hbleyr

15.0

(10)-3/MWe-yr

There i s a l a r g e d i f f e r e n c e between t h e s a f e s t and most dangerous mines and a g r e a t p o s s i b i l i t y for improvement i n t h e average r a t e .

A t present t h e

best mines have accident r a t e s o f 10% of t h e n a t i o n a l average rates. i s 50.2

injuries/lO

6

miner hours w h i l e l o w i s 5.3

injuries/lO

6

(Average

miner hours.)

Thus, i f t h e average were to approach t h e best now a v a i l a b l e , t h e i n j u r i e s

would be s u b s t a n t i a l l y reduced. For trends i n underground accident r a t e s : (24,25,137)

b.

T h i s assumes the present dust l e v e l s a r e i n f o r c e d (see Section 111-8-1). Other assumptions:

11600

-

10.2

-

12500 BTU/lo coal 14.2 MT/miner-day

220 miner day/yr Dose Response

- Ref.

Low End Range

-

High End Range

(25)

no complicated CWP (coal workers pneumoconcosis) or death

-

r a t i o o f 1 t o 14 death t o disease as i n present r a t e s

A t present the r a t e s a r e as f o l l o w s based on Reference 10 and used a; an upper l i m i t :

2.7 [ 1.4 0.5 -

(

Mper Wey r

plant in

{

0

9.3

-3

12.9

62.3

-2

death disability person-days lost for death and disability

7.0 PMF (progressive massive f i b r o s i s o r complicated CWP)

20.0

CWP (coal workers pneumoconcosis)

0-70

Other e f f e c t s ( e . g i n m i n e r ' s f a m i l i e s )

(0-7

Death

123

Based on Reference 2 and used as a lower l i m i t :

2.9 simple CWP for 1000 MWe p l a n t i n 1 year

1.3 cc)rtipI i c a t e d CUP 1.8 suspected CWP

See Section 111-8-1 f o r a discussion of the f u t u r e r a t e s i f present dust l e v e l standards are maintained. c.

(25).

10-3 chance of 25+ persons k i l l e d i n a mine accident.

(10)

One 1000-Mwe p l a n t

uses about 5(10)-3 of the present coal production. d.

93 d a y d i n j u r y (1)

e.

From r a i l t r a n s p o r t o f c o a l .

f.

SOX p o l l u t i o n o n l y (15).

Other p o l l u t a n t s such as NOx, ozone and CO a l s o

have an e f f e c t , but a r e n o t included, but h e a l t h e f f e c t s a r e based on SOX i n presence of a i r b o r n e p a r t i c u l a t e s . MT Sox/yr

I

Remote S i t e

I

Urban S i t e

This range i n t h e t a b l e includes a f a c t o r of 20 u n c e r t a i n t y i n dose response r e 1 a t iocs h ip. Illness:

Chronic r e s p i r a t o r y diseases = S days l o s t Asthma a t t a c k s

= 1 day l o s t

Respiratory diseases i n c h i l d r e n = 1 day l o s t Aggravated person-days o f heart-lung disease counted o n l y as person-days l o s t .

123a

These numbers were c a l c u l a t e d d i r e c t l y from the values i n r e f . 15 which a r e subject to much debate.

Please see references (10, 122-128,

132).

There may a l s o be carcinogens (130, 131). g.

There does n o t seem t o be any large-scale accident which might occur i n a c o a l - f i r e d power p l a n t although many kinds of f i r e s , explosion e t c . could cause severe damage t o the p l a n t and many c a s u a l t i e s among workers.

h.

(205)

There would be sone occupational accidents involved i n the handling o f sludge and ash.

i. A i r p o l l u t i o n from burning coal mine t a i l i n g s banks (10). p o l l u t i o n from sludge ponds c o u l d have an e f f e c t

I n a d d i t i o n , water

e.g_. on cardiovascular disease

and i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y rates, i f d r i n k i n g water s u p p l i e s were a f f e c t e d .

(140).

See Table A-2 notes k-m.

j.

There i s evidence t h a t some chemical emissions from f o s s i l f u e l e d power systems may have a mutagenic p o t e n t i a l .

f'?

s p e c i f i c compounds, t1.e routes o f exposure

and the dose/response r e l a t i o n s h i p s a r e not understood.

I d e a l l y i t would be

des rable t o be a b l e t o measure b o t h tt.e g e n e t i c e f f e c t s o f chemicals and radi a t on i n a common u n i t such as the persan-rem equivalent we1 1 beyond our c u r r e n t a b i 1 it y

~

k,

6000 PDL/death from Ref. ( I ) .

1.

2/3 of coal i s processed (Ref. 1 , 2,

10).

124

(213).

This i s

>

P L

a.

Table 6-1: a.

Footnotes

Since a 37% power p l a n t thermal e f f i c i e n c y and a

75% power p l a n t c a p a c i t y

f a c t o r a r e assumed here as f o r the coal-scrub system, t h e h a r v e s t i n s fuels, upgrading f u e l s and t r a n s p o r t i n g f u e l s q u a n t i t i e s a r e p r e c i s e l y the same as those g i v e n i n Table A-1. b.

Q u a n t i t i e s given are for a coal f l u i d i z e d - b e d b o i l e r power p l a n t w i t h s u l f u r removal by regenerative d o l m i t e a b s o r p t i o n and a n a t u r a l d r a f t evaporative c o o l i n g tower, burning n a t i o n a l average c o a l . Assumed p l a n t

thermal e f f i c i e n c y

i s 37%, capacity f a c t o r , 75% and p l a n t l i f e , 30 years. C.

Represents quanti t i e s a t t r i b u t a b l e (where a v a i l a b l e ) to o n - s i t e disposal o f bottom ash, recovered f l y ash and dolomite sludge.

d.

I n Reference (13), the c o s t o f a f l u i d i z e d - b e d b o i l e r power p l a n t was estimated a t $192/hw i n January, 1970 d o l l a r s , excluding i n t e r e s t during construction

and escalation; assuming i n t e r e s t d u r i n g construct;on f o r 2 years

at. 10.5%/year as w e l l as 6% long-term i n f l a t i o n .

The net i n t e r e s t r a t e

i s 4.25%/year and we get $209/kW i n January 1970 d o l l a r s .

Adjustiig t o

1974 d o l l a r s u s i n g t h e Handy-Whi tman index f o r s t e a m - e l e c t r i c power p l a n t c o n s t r u c t i o n (Ref.

(3811, we get $302/kW.

\lestinghouse i s updating i t s

cost estimates f o r t h e i r f l u i d i z e d - b e d b o i l e r design as p a r t o f the NASA-

ERDA-NSF Energy Conversion A1 t e r n a t i v e Systems (ECAS) study and the r e s u l t s of t h i s work w i 11 be pub1 ished i n due course (42). e.

i n Reference (1) conventional 0 & M costs o f 1.28 mills/kWHe i n 1974 d o l l a r s a r e implied.

This corresponds t o $8.41 x 103 /MWe-yr.

126

f.

Coal c o s t s a r e the same as g i v e n i n Table A-1 and expanded upon i n footnote 9. of t h a t table.

We may a l s o use equation (A-1) i n t h a t footnote to calcu-

l a t e e l e c t r i c i t y costs. I T = 3.02 x 10

G = .839 and e'.

N =

EC

(from the f i r s t l i n e o f Table B-1) (from Table A-1, f o o t n o t e 9.)

8.41 x 10 capital 5.10

For t h e present system:

( f r o m the second l i n e of Table B-1)

O t M +

6.98

fuel +

15.00

m i 11s KwHe

27.10

g.

These c o s t s a r e incorporated i n t o the power p l a n t 0 t M cost.

h.

Although power p l a n t c o n s t r u c t i o n m a t e r i a l and labor requirements were n o t round f o r t h i s system, the b o i l e r i t s e l f i s conslderably smaller than a conventional steam b o i l e r because i t operates a t h i g h e r pressure.

Based on

the r e l a t i v e d i r e c t c a p i t a l costs a 20% r e d u c t i o n i n c o n s t r u c t i o n m a t e r i a l s seems p l a u s i b l e .

The s h o r t e r c o n s t r u c t i o c lead time and use o f a p r e f a b r i -

cated b o i l e r cou?d imply c o n s t r u c t i o n manpower up

TO

25% l e s s than f o r the

coal -scrub system.

i. Power p l a n t 0 & M labor requirements assumed i d e n t i c a l t o those f o r the coal scrub system. and include personnel r e q u i r e d f o r waste disposal.

j.

Fr-r a regenerative d e s u l f u r i z a t i o n system o n l y 17% o f the absorbent m a t e r i a l

required f o r the once-through system i s necessary (Ref. ( 1 ) ) .

k.

La:,;

and water requirements a r e assumed t o be i d e n t i c a l to those for the

coal scrub system except

83% l e s s land i s required f o r sludye disposal because

a regenerative d e s u l f u r i z a t i o n system i s employed. and

:3)

See a l s o References (1)

f o r land use, where smaller numbers a r e given, but l i k e l y exclude

b b i f f e r zones.

127

128

fable 8-2:

See notes a - f i n Table A-2.

a-f. g.

Footnotes

Ranges of emissions correspond t o coal o f :

2.5

-

10

- 3.0% s u l f d r 12% tsh

-

11,600

12,500 Btu/lb.

Pouer plapts w i t h :

- 95% removal of s u l f u r (91-98) - 99.8% r e m a 1 of p a r t i c u l a t e s by weight (4, 1 3 ,

90 99

32 )

37% thermal e f f i c i e n c y

7% of 0

-

the coal goes t o regeneration system, 93% t o b o i l e r (equivalent t o

39.8% e f f i c i e n c y of fluidized-bed b o i l e r . ) 67% of the coal i s p h y s i c a l l y cleaned to remove 40% o f tha s u l f u r .

HC from r e f . 1.

Toxic metals and radioactive emissions assumed t o be c o n t r o l l e d t o the same extent as p a r t i c u l a t e s .

80% of SOX from b o i l e r and the r e s t from the dolomite regeneration and s u l f u r recovery plants.

(1 )

The range i n NOx emissions i s taken from refs. uses a range o f 3.7

- 6.3

4, 13, 92

Ref. 1s

MT/Mwe-yr.

The p o t e n t i a l thermal e f f i c i e n c y i s much higher. well as ref.13 and

.

See chapters I I and 1 1 1 as

92.

An additional 0.3 MT of dissolved s o l i d s from cooling tower d r i f t could be added. h.

300 160

-

380 MT ash

- 190 MT dolomite

(1)

Sulfur recovered i s not included.

I f 704 of the s u l f u r i s recovered, uncleaned

3% s u l f u r coal could produce about 60 MT/Mwe-yr. i-k.

See notes k-m of Table A-2.

I-n.

See 0-q of Tab!e A-2.

I

+

c

T I-

In

?

I

I

0

0

0

C

c

c

Y cp

C

0

2 u

Y

Table

e-3:

a-e.

See notes a-e i n Table A-3.

f.

Footnotes

From r e f . 4:

40 men per 500 ton/hour f l u i d i z e d bed plant

8.1 i n j u r i e d m i 1 1 ion worker hours death r a t e = 5% i n j u r y r a t e and mid-point values of coal b o i l e r w i t h scrubber, Table A-3. g.

SOX only.

See Table A-3,

h.

Table A-3,

note 9.

i. Table A-3,

note h.

note f.

.

j.

Table A-3,

note i

k.

Table A-3,

note j .

1.

Table A-3,

note 1

131

L

A

P S n u .

132

Table C-1:

a.

Footnotes

With an assumed o\rerall power p l a n t e f f i c i e n c y of factor o f

37% and an assumed c a p a c i t y

75%, the coal fuel c y c l e stages for the coal-C.C.

system a r e pre-

c i s e l y the same as those for the c o a l scrub system given i n Table A-1.

b.

The conversion step for t h i s system includes a L u r g i type fixed-bed g a s l f i e r which provides Iow-Btu gas which i s then input t o a combii.,J-cycle

power system.

The g a s i f i e r i s assumed t o have a 79% thermal e f f i c i e n c y and the combined c y c l e a 47% thermal e f f i c i e n c y (Ref. lO3a), f o r an o v e r a l l c o a l - e l e c t r i c i t y efficiency o f

thermal

37%. The c a p a c i t y f a c t o r i s assumed to be 75% and the p l a n t

l i f e , 30 years. c.

Includes disposal of ash o n l y , as the recovered s u l f u r i s considered t o be sold.

d.

The c a p i t a l cost f o r the L u r g i g a s i f i e r i s taken from Reference (26) as $17O/Kwe i n e a r l y 1974 d o l l a r s i n c l u d i n g i n t e r e s t d u r i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n . i s considerably higher than o t h e r estimates we have seen (e.g., (1).

(5)).

(8). (991, and (101), but not i n c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h a t g i v e n

This

i n References i n Reference

b u t i s thought t o r e f l e c t the considerable scale-up and i n t e r f a c i n g

problems l i k e l y t o be encountered i n t r y i n g t o i n t e r f a c e a g a s i f i e r w i t h a combined c y c l e power system.

A r e p o r t by t h e F l u o r

Corporation (being prepared f o r E P R l t o help evaluate the choice between a i r and oxygen as a g a s i f y i n g agent f o r u t i l i t y a p p l i c a t i o n 3nd due f o r p u b l i c a t i o n d u r i n g June o f 1975) should y i e l d more up-to-date estimates on both c a p i t a l and conventional 0 & M c o s t s f o r a Lurgi g a s i f i e r o f the type required f o r t h i s type of a p p l i c a t i o n . combined-cycle

The o r i g i n a l d e s c r i p t i o n o f the Lurgi

system may be found i n Ref. ( 1 1 1 ) and those i n t e r e s t e d i n the

a p p l i c a b i l i t y of Lurgi g a s i f i c a t i o n t o o t h e r than non-taking c o a l s r e f e r r e d t o Ref.

(113).

are

The g a s i f i e r c o s t o f $ 1 7 5 / K w was adjusted t o mid-

133

I974 d o l l a r s by m u l t i p l y i n g by 1.14 to r e f l e c t the e a r l y 1974 increase i n the i n d r s t r i a l wholesale p r i c e inde:,

$194/Kwe.

(see e.g.

Ref. ( 4 1 ) ) y i e l d i n g

A eornbined-cycle power system c a p i t a l c o s t of $174/Kwe was

derived from Ref. (8) and adjusted to mid-1974 d o l l a r s by n u l t i p l y i n g by 1.14 r e f l e c t i n g the increase i n the Hardy-Whitman Steam E l e c t r i c Construction index (Ref.

(38)) during e a r l y 1974.

To the $198/KWe

estimate so obtained, was added 1.5 years o f i n t e r e s t during construc-

tion a t 10.5% as w e l l as 6% i n f l a t i o n . The net i n t e r e s t r a t e i s 4.25%, which gave a combined-cycle system cost of $ZIl/kWe.

Therefore, the t o t a l coal C-C

power 6 l a n t c a p i t a l cost was taken as $409/kWe. e.

A conventional 0 6 fl cost o f $9.86 x 1 0 3 / ~ y ri s assumed to r e f l e c t the e l i m i n a t i o n of sludge disposal problems inherent i n the coal-scrub and fluidized-bed systems considered i n Tables A-1 and 8-1, respectively.

AI-

though less dolomite i s required for t h i s coal based system than f o r the other t w o and although elemental s u l f u r may be sold f o r about $lO?ton, the

0 & M cost here i s n o t reduced below 75% of t h a t for the o t h e r t w o systems because of a d d i t i o n a l 0 & M costs necessary t o run the g a s i f i e r . f.

The e l e c t r i c i t y cost equation,@-I),

given i n note g o f Table A-1 applies i n

the present case w i t h :

8

I T = 4.09 x 10 G =

.839

(from note g . , Table A-1)

6

N = 9.86 x 10

capital

EC = 6.91 g.

Capital and 0 &

(from the f i r s t row of t h i s table)

(from the second row of t h s table) 0 & M

+ 9.00

fuel

+ 15.0 = 30.Ql

m Ils/KwHe

M costs f o r ash disposal are included i n the corresponding

power p l ant e n t r i e s . h.

Power p l a n t construction labor and materials data was derived from Ref. (8) and are annualized over the appropriate f a c i l i t y l i f e t i m e .

134

i. Waste disposal construction manpower and m a t e r i a l s (which are q u i t e small anyway) a r e included i n the ccrresponding power p l a n t e n t r i e s .

j.

0 L H labor requirements a t the power p l a n t are taken as approximately equal to those for the coal-scrub system.

k.

A n c i l l a r y energy requirements a t the power p l a n t a r e from Ref.

(1).

It i s

i r r e l e v a n t whether or not some or a l l o f t h i s a n c i l l a r y energy requirement may be a c t u a l l y s a t i s f i e d i n t e r n a l l y by using the combined c y c l e output energy because o f the u n c e r t a i n t y of our assumed p l a n t e f f i c i e n c y .

‘3).

I.

Dolomite required for s u l f u r cleanup o f the low-Btu gas i s from Ref.

m.

Power p l a n t land use i s assumed equal t o t h a t f o r the coal-scrub system (although Ref.

(1) gives o n l y

14.4

2

m /Mwe-yr,

f a c i l i t i e s f o r coal

storage and u n i t t r a i n unloading are s t i l l required as w e l l as a b u f f e r zone, which leads

us to believe the power p l a n t land requirement (excepting

waste disposal requirements) f o r the two systems would be q u i t e s i m i l a r ) . I t i s again assumed here that the power p l a n t land requirement i s a l l disturbed (but not permanently) although i n r e a l i t y p a r t o f i t i s probably a b u f f e r zone. For waste disposal, however, the coal C-C. (Ref.

system uses o n l y one-fourth

( 1 ) ) as much land as the coal-scrub system, as there i s no sludge

d isposa 1 problem. n.

Water requirements a t the power p l a n t were derived from Ref.

135

(3).

.

I

0

CI I I

l l

l l

I

I

I

I

I I

Q I

I l

I l

I

I

I

I

I I

I

I

I

I

I

.-

I

I

I

O

0

I

I

l

l

I

I

l

l

I I

I I

I I

l I

l I

1 I

I I

I I

I I

l

l

l

l

1

I I

I I

I

I 1

I I

I I

I I

--

I

t

.

?

-

o

j 0

Table C-2:

See notes a - f , Table A-2.

a-f. 9.

Footnotes

Coal c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s :

2.5

-

10

- 3.0% s u l f u r 12% ash

11,600

-

12,500 Btu/lb.

Power p l a n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s :

(100-110, 1

98 - 99.7% s u l f u r removal 99 - 99.98 p a r t i c u l a t e removal by weight 37% thermal e f f i c i e n c y = 79% g a s i f i e r e f f c i z n c y x 47% combined-cycle combustion efficiency

0

-

HC:

.

67% of t h e coal i s p h y s i c a l l y cleaned t o remove 40% of the s u l f u r . High end from r e f .

4

and low end from r e f . 1 .

Toxic metals and r a d i o a c t i v e emissions assumed t o be c o n t r o l l e d t o the same extent as p a r t icui ates.

NOx:

High end from r e f . 15 (10% o f n a t u r a l gas emission r a t e which, from r e f . 8 6 i s 0.4 l b / m i l l i o n Btu) and l o w end from r e f . 1 .

The p o t e n t i a l thermal e f f i c i e n c y i s much higher. ref.

See chapters I I and I1 I and

23, 28, 103.

An a d d i t i o n a l 0.3 MT/Mwe-yr o f d i s s o l v e d s o l i d s i n c o o l i n g water d r i f t c o u l d be added. h.

Based on new source performance standards ( 1 ) .

i.

From g a s i f i e r o n l y ( 1 1 . .

j.

There would be some impact o f handling the ash and s u l f u r produced i n the gasifier.

k.

See note q i n Table A-2.

1.

See Reference I .

Approximately 0.2 MT/MWe-yr.

137

r za -c

Table C-3: a-e.

Footnotes.

See notes a-e i n Table A-3.

f.

Combined-cyc',- combustion ( l ) , Lurgi g a s i f i c a t i o n

g.

SOX only.

h-k. I.

See Tbble A - 3 ,

See Table A-3, See Table A-3,

note f .

notes g - j . note 1 .

139

(4).

REPRODUCIBm OF TIIE ORIGINAL PAGE IS POOR

c

0

3

LL

(P ¶ 'I)

e a .. Y)

c

I

n

u c D

8

140

Table

a.

D-1:

Footnotes

For t h e base case, t h e h a r v e s t i n g f u e l s s t a g e c o n s i s t s o f o f f s h o r e o i l ext r a c t i o n and t r a n s p o r t o f t h e crude to a r e f i n e r y by p i p e l i n e .

An a l t e r n a t i v e

case o f imported m i d d l e e a s t e r n crude was also considered and resources r e q u i r e d f o r the tankers and import f a c i l i t i e s necessary t o t r a n s p o r t t h i s imported crude to a r e f i n e r y a r e i q c l u d e d i n t h e a p p r o p r i a t e f o o t n o t e s below. The o f f s h o r e f a c i l i t i e s were assumed t o have a twenty year l i f e t i m e , w h i l e the tanker and r e l a t e d f a c ; ” t i e s b.

were assumed t o l a s t f o r t h i r t y years.

For the RFO system t h e upgrading f u e l s stage corresponds t o t h e o p e r a t i o n

of a petroleum r e f i n e r y .

T h i s r e f i n e r y was t r e a t e d as i f i t s e n t i r e o u t p u t

were r e s i d u a l f u e l o i 1 and resource u t i 1 i z a t i o n s scaled a c c o r d i n g l y . example,

For

i f the p r o d u c t i o n o f 1 b a r r e l o f petroleum p r o d u c t s a t a r e f i n e r y

consumes 1 l i t e r of water, amount o f water.

1 b a r r e l o f RFO i s a l s o assumed t o r e q u i r e t h i s

See i n d i v i d u a l resource u t i l i z a t i o n c a t e g o r y f o o t n o t e s below

f o r exceptions t o t h i s genera; r u l e .

The r e f i n e r y was assumed t o have a

t h i r t y year 1 i fetime. C.

All

RFO i s assumed t o be t r a n s p o r t e d by p i p e l i n e from t h e r e f i n e r y t o the

power p l a n t . d.

The p i p e l i n e was assumed t o have a t h i r t y year l i f e .

Q u a n t i t i e s g i v e n - - e f o r an u n c o n t r o l l e d o i l - f i r e a 7ower p l a n t b u r n i n g l o w s u l f u r r e s i d u a l f u e l o i l and w i t h a n a t u r a l d r a f t e v a p o r a t i v e c o o l i n g tower. The power p l a n t was assumed t o have a thermal e f f i c i e n c y 2 f factor of

e.

752

382,

a capacity

and a l i f e t i m e o f 30 years.

For t h i s system the management o f f i n a l wastes c o n s i s t s o n l y o f the v e r y small commitment of land r e q u i r e d f o r d i s p o s a l o f the ash generated b y RFO combustion.

f.

The d i r e c t p l u s i n d i r e c t c a p i t a l c o s t ( e x c l u d i n g i n t e r e s t d u r : n g c o n s i r u c t i o n ) f o r the RFO system was t .hen from Ref. during construction o f

3

( 2 1 ) as $248/Kwe.

Adding i n t e r e s t

years a t t h e n e t i n t e r e s t of 4.25k g i v e s a t o t a l

c a p i t a l cost o f $280/kWe.

141

9.

Conventional 0 6

0.6

mill&wHe,

M c o s t s were taken from Ref. ( 21 ) and o t h e r sources a r e

which f o r a p l a n t a t a

75% c a p a c i t y f a c t o r t r a n s l a t e s t o

$394O/Mwe /Y r h.

The p r i c e of RFO was taken from Ref.

( 3 2 ) as 204.6~/MBtu i n December o f

1974 and d e f l a t e d by the consumer's p r i c e index t o 193 C/MBtu i n mid-1974. dollars.

For t h e p r e s e n t case t h e e l e c t r i c i t y c o s t e q u a t i o n (A-1)

i n note 9

o f Table A-1 needs o n l y s l i g h t m o d i f i c a t i o n t o r e f l e c t the s l i g h t l y h i g h e r thermal e f f i c i e n c y assumed here.

0 t M cost

C a p i t a l Cost

EC = 1.69 x

Making t h i s adjustment, e q u a t i o n (A-1)

x IT

i

2.97 x

becomes:

Fuel Cost

lom7 x

(.051T

N ) + 17.2G

i

Naw, f o r t h e RFO system:

8

I T = 2.80 x 10

5 = 1.93

( f r o m f i r s t sentence o f t h i s f o o t n o t e )

6

N = 3.94 x 10 Capital b'bEC

= 4.73

( f r o m f i r s t row o f t a b l e )

(from second row o f t a b l e ) O b M

+

5.33

+

Fue 1 33.20

= 43.25

mills/KwHe

Therefore the t o t a l c o n t r i b u t i o n :,f the c o s t o f f u e l t o t h e c o s t o f d l e c t r i c i t y f o r t h e RFO system I s l a r g e basis.

--

33.20 mills/KwHe on a n a t i o n a l average

No breakdown o f the c o n t r i b u t i o n o f t h e v a r i o u s stages o f the f u e l

c y c l e to the c o s t o f R F O d e l i v e r e d to t h e power p l a n t h a s attempted,pa*

:iy

due t o the d i f f i c u l t y o f a s s i g n i n g c o s t c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o r e f i n e r y prclducts and p a r t l y due t o l a c k o f good data.

i. Fuel c y c l e f a c i l i t y c a p i t a l c o s t s , c o n s t r u c t i o n l a b o r requirements and cons t r u c t i o n m a t e r i a l s requirements a r c d e r i v c d from data g i v e n i n Ref. ( 8 ) .

Fuel

c y c l e c a p i t a l requirements a r e the investment r e q u i r e d t o b u i l d enough c a p a c i t y f o r one Mwe-yr ' s N o r t h o f f u e l p r o d u c t i o n c a p a c i t y .

T h i s was done beca*Jse o f

the d i v e r s e r e q u i r e d r a t e s o f r e t u r n and a c c o u n t i n g procedures

142

i 0 c . i

1 ized i n

C o n s t r u c t i o n manpower and ma:erials

the v a r i o u s f u e l c y c l e i n d u s t r i e s .

requirements are, however, annualized by d i v i d i n g the requirements to cons t r u c t c a p a c i t y s u f f i c i e n t to p r o v i d e one Mwe-yr. of f u e l by t h e assumed (see notes a-e!

For the imported m i d d l e e a s t e r n crude

f a c i l i t y lifetimes.

case che requirements f o r tankers and o i l import f a c i l i t i e s would be:

4

c y c l e c a p i t a l c o s t = 3, .'6 x 10 / t h e - y r ; F i e l d Super. and Adm.=

1.39 MH/Mwe-yr;

,'tiel

Engineering = 3.95 MH/Mwe-yr; F i e l d l l n s k i 1 l e d Manual = 4.07 MH/Mwe-yr;

1 F i e l d S k i l l e d Planual = 1.78 x 10 MH Mwe-yr; T o t a l c o n s t r u c t i o n l a b o r = 1 2.72 x 10 MH/Mwe-yr; MT/Mwe-yr;

S t r u c t u r a l = 3.74 x lG-'MT/Plwe-yr;

-2

H a j o r Equipment 7.69 x 10

MT/Mwe-yr;

D,pe = 3.39 x 10-1

Minor Equipment = 1.c'

x

IO-* MT/Mwe-yr; T o t a l C o n s t r u c t i o n M e t a l s = 8.06 MT/Mwe-yr and Concrete = 8.71 x j.

MT/Mwe-yr.

Very small c a p i t a l and 0 & M c o s t s for ash and sludge d i s p o s a l a r e i n c l u d e d i n t h e correspond ing power p 1a n t e n t r i e s .

k.

Fuel c y c l e 0 & M c o s t s were d e r i v e d from References (1) and (118); supertanker 0 & M c o s t s w;.e n o t obtained.

I.

0 E M labor r.quirements were der!ved from d a t a i n References (118), and (1).

0 & M l a b o r for supertanker t r a n s p o r t was d e r i v e d from Ref.

2

as 2.07 x 10 m.

(12O), (121)

MH/Mwe-yr.

Thermal e f f i c i e n c i e s and a n c i l l a r y energy requirements were o b t a i n e d from References ( l ) ,

(118) and (120).

A n c i l l a r y e l e c t r i c a l requirements were

d.,ain backfigured t o primary f u e l requirements as p e r n o t e j o f Tahle A - 1 An a n c i l i a r y energy requirement o f 1.12 x 10-1 Mwth-yr/Mwe-yr was d e r i v e d from data g i v e n i n Ref.

n.

f o r supertankers

(1).

Land requirements were d e r i v e d from d a t a g i v e n i n Referenccs ( 1 1 ,

(21,

(31,

( 4 ) , ( 7 ) , and (8) a d are annualized over the assumed f a c i l i t y l i f e t i m e s ,

143

(e.g.,

a f i x e d c o m i tment o f land necessary f o r enough r e f i n e r y c a p a c i t y f o r

one Mwe-yr.

i s d i v i d e d by tt.2 assumed r e f i n e r y l i f e t i m e t o g e t the land use

consumption per h - y r . )

The surface area of o f f s h o r e d r i 11 ing p l a t f o r m s

was considered as land use, but t h i s amounts t o a d i s t u r b e d tempo-ary

1

2

commitment o f o n l y 2 x 10 m /Mwe-yr.

P i p e l i n e s (both crude and RFO c a r r y i n g )

a r e assumed t o average 300-360 m i l e s i n l e n g t h and t o r e q u i r e r i g h t o f way o f 62.5 f e e t , o n l y 1/3 o f which i s assumed t o be d i s t u r b e d (by access roads and other maintenance and o p e r a t i n g f a c i l ituies).

None of the land commi tments

f o r the RFO system are assumed t o be permanent, a t l e a s t pot i n the same sense as f o r nuclear system f a c i l i t i e s .

Land use f o r a tank farm f o r import

2 f a c i l i t i e s i s small a t 1.84 m /Mwe-yr 0.

(from Ref ( 1 ) ) .

Although some o f the temporary land use f o r the RFO power p l a n t i s probably used as a b u f f e r zone and hence n o t disturbed,

t o be conservative, we have

chosen t o t r e a t the e n t i r e power p l a r - t land comnitment as being disturbed. p.

Water consumption data i s p r i m a r i l y f r o m references (

3 j and ( 7 ) and

r e f e r s o n l y t o evaporated water which f o r the RFO system i s o n l y r e q u i r e d f o r c o o l i n g a t the r e f i n e r y and power p l a n t .

144

0

c I

0 c

01 Y

LL

c

ID V

c

u e

N I

0

01

c

n 10 I-

z

W

I

c

f a b l e 0-2:

a.

Footnotes

Offshore domestic production p l u s p i p e l i n e .

Most o f the impacts are f r o m

the p i p e l i n e . The f o l lowing emissions are associated w i t h f o r e i g n product ion p l u s c#ude transport by tanker:

NOx 0.028 MT/MWe-yr

Air:

Water:

0.64 MT o i l spi llage/MWe-yr

SOX 0.044

P a r t 0.0032 HC

0.0019

Other 0.0003 We have not made a d i s t i n c t i o n between the impacts o f o u t e r continental shelf production and near off-shore production or between tanker transport and supertanker transport. b.

About 5.8 (10)

O i l spillage.

3 MT b r i n e could be added t o t h i s impact.

See

note e and ref. 114-119. c.

Refinery emissions are assumed t o apply on a Btu basis t o RFO which comprises about

6%of an average

- 7.1

d.

Includes 3.0

e.

O i l s p i l l a g e rates:

f.

RFO c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s :

-

0.6

U.S.

r e f i n e r y ' s output (1,

3 , 7, l l a )

( l o r 3 MT o i l . 0.006%(1)

- 0.04%(3).

1.0% s u l f u r by weight

6 . 3 (10)

6

Btu/bbl

P1ant c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s :

0 90

-

90% removal of s u l f u r

-

99% removal of p a r t i c u l a t e s

The range o f NOx i s due t o the best new b o i l e r s a v a i l a b l e t o d a y on the h i g h end and down by a f a c t o r o f two t o account f o r f u t u r e combustion m o d i f i c a t i o n s a t the low end (IS).

An a d d i t ona

0.3 dissolved s o l i d s i n d r i f t from c o o l i n g towers

could be added.

146

s

9.

See ref. 5

h.

High number from ref. 7, low number f r o m ref. 3.

81.

1. Two thirds Ra-228, one-third Ra-226. j-I.

See Table A-2,

(3, 80, 209. '14)

notes k m .

See refs. 84-86. m.

See footnote q in Table 8-2.

147

c

I

Y

C 0

E

U V

5

U I

I

148

Table 0-3:

a.

Footnotes.

Offshore

+ p i p e l ine.

The r a t e s f o r f o r e i g n p r o d u c t i o n + tanker i m p o r t are:

( 1 , 4, 7)

Deaths 8 . 0 ( 1 0 ) - ~/MWe-yr Inj u r ies

4.5 ( 10) -3 /MWe-yr

Person-days l o s t 0.8/MWe-yr We have n o t made a d i s t i n c t i o n between t h e a c c i d e n t r a t e s of o u t e r c o n t i n e n t a l she1 f p r o d u c t i o n and near off-shore

p r o d u c t i o n o r between tanker t r a n s p o r t and

supertanker t r a n s p o r t . b.

31 d a y d i n j u r y ( 1 ) .

C.

Tanker e x p l o s i o n s ( 115-1189 205).

d.

See Table 0-2, n o t e c .

e.

31 d a y s / i n j u r y ( 1 ) .

f.

SOX o n l y .

9.

From SOX released i n a l a r g e f i r e a t a r e f i n e r y o r a t

See Table A - 3 ,

f o r a power p l a n t . h.

See Table A - 3 ,

(191).

note j .

note f aad a l s o r e f . 101

. -*orage tank farm

L 0 c. U

m

al

e L

+ al w

Y

-cm

-1

-.. I W

0

c

n

0

I-

150

Table E-1:

a.

Footnotes

Includes mining and m i l l i n g o f U 0

3 6

assumed f o r these f a c i l i t i e s .

(yellowcake).

A 20 year l i f e t i m e i s

Surface mining was assumed for the base case,

but n a t i o n a l average data a r e g i v e n for f u e l c o s t and o p e r a t i o n a l manpower Data, where a v a i l a b l e , f o r uranium deep mines i s g i v e n i n the a p p r o p r i a t e footnotes. b.

Includes conversion o f U 0

38

fabrication. C.

t o UF

6'

enrichment o f UF6 and f u e l element

A 30 year l i f e i s assumed f o r these f a c i l i t i e s .

Costs and resource u t i l i z a t i o n f o r t r a n s p o r t o f nuclear f u e l s i s included i n the appropriate f u e l c y c l e step t o t a l s , e.g.,

about 1/12 o f the c o s t of man-

agement o f f i n a l wastes may be a t t r i b u t e d t o the c o s t of spent-fuel shipping. d.

This column represents c o s t s and resource u t i l i z a t i o n s f o r a Light-Water Reactor (LWR) w i t h a n a t u r a l d r a f t evaporative cool i n g tower, a thermel e f f i c i e n c y of 32% and a c a p a c i t y f a c t o r o f

e.

75%.

This stage includes spent f u e l shipping and reprocessing, as w e l l as management o f f i n a l wastes.

f.

Because o f t h e i r many steps and t i m e lags the nuclear f u e l c y c l e s are inhere n t i y more d i f f i c u l t t o ana yze than the foss 1 f u e l cycles. ana 1 y s i s f u e l cyc:e charges a r e discounted as they occur.

I n the present

B a s i c a l l y the

e l e c t r i c t y cost zquaclan used f o r the f o s s i 1 system (equation A-1 Table .A- ) , m u s t be n o t i i f i e d as f o l l o w s :

EC =

1.69 x 10

-8

x IT

+ 2.97

x

g,

Equation F - 1

0 5 M Cost

Capital C o s t

, note

Fuel Cost

(.OS

I T + N)

+ 1.69

-8

x 10

x PV(FC)

where I T & N = a s before the p l a n t c a p i t a l cost and 0 & M cost i n mid-

1974 dol l a r s

and PV(FC) = the present value o f t h e f u e l c y c l e charges over :he

lifetime

o f t h e p l a n t discounted to t h e date o f commercial operation. Since

6% long-term i n f : a t i o n and 10.5% i n t e r e s t a r e assumed,

the n e t discount r a t e i s 4.25% (1.105/1.06)

and t h i s i s used

t o determine the present v a l u e of t h e nuclear f u e l c o s t steam. This approach i s taken since nuclear f u e l c o s t s a r e a s t r i n g

of c a p i t a l charges r a t h e r than f o s s i l fuels.

a f u e l cost i n $/MBTU i s w i t h

The c o n t r i b u t i o n s o f the c o s t s o f t h e v a r i o u s

f u e l c y c l e s o p e r a t i n g t o the cost of t h e i n i t i a l core a r e included i n the f u e l cost r a t h e r than t h e c a p i t a l cost.

This i s

conventional and makes i t e a s i e r t o consider unequal f u e l and c a p i t a l e s c a l a t i o n r a t e s i n the s e n s i t i v i t y analyses o f Chapter 3. g.

A c a p i t a l cost o f $371/kWe,

tion,was

excluding i n t e r e s t d u r i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n and escala-

obtained from Reference (21).

construction f o r

To t h i s was added i n t e r e s t d u r i n g

3.75 years a t 10.5% i n t e r e s t and 6% long-term i n f l a t i o n .

The n e t i n t e r e s t i s 4.25%, f o r a t o t a l c a p i t a l c o s t of $424/kWe. h.

The power p l a n t 0 & M costs was taken from Ref. (21) as $5.26 x 103/Mwe/yr.

i.

The value o f the i n i t i a l core was c a l c u l a t e d using f u e l c y c l e requirements ap’

The model mass balance represents 2/3rds

t i m i n g obtained from Ref. ( 1 1 ) .

of a PWR and 1/3 of a BWR.

This corresponds t o the r a t i o a t which c a p a c i t y

o f these two types o f reactors (231).

wi 1 1 be bui 1 t according t o References (11) and

The f u e l c y c l e requirements f o r the i n i t i a l core a r e assumed t o be

442 MT of U308, 554 MT o f UF6 Conversion, 203 MT

87 MTU of fuel f a b r i c a t i o n .

o f separative work and

What the u n i t costs by the various f u e l c y c l e

services w i l l be between now and the end o f the century ( t o say nothing o f beyond t h i s p o i n t ) i s an extremely c o n t r o v e r s i a l s u b j e c t : U 0

3 8

-

(c.f.

availability

the question o f

being perhaps the most c o n t r o v e r s i a l i s s u e .

References (45). (159

-

162),

(172))

152

We would be foo

hardy to base our e n t i r e a n a l y s i s on a s i n g l e p l a u s i b l e U 0

3 8

n u c l e a r c a p a c i t y b u i l d u p scenario,and generation costs to U 0

3 8

availability-

so t h e s e n s i t i v i t y of n u c l e a r power

p r i c e i s i n c l u d e d i n Chapter

hDwever, we have chosen t h e case 0 s c e n a r i o i n Ref. t h e b u i l d u p of nuclear qeneratinq capacity.

3.

F o r t h e base case,

(11) t o r e p r e s e n t

We assume a 0.25%

t a i l s assay and do not d i s c o u n t t h e c a p a c i t y b u i l d u p by 20% due to r e c e n t c a n c e l l a t i o n s and d e l a y s as was done i n Reference

( I t s ) , because we want t h i s See Table F-1 for

LWR o p t i o n t o be one i n which P l u t o n i u m i s not r e c y c l e d . t h e Pu r e c y c l e case.

We

chose t o b e l i e v e t h a t t h e d i f f e r e n c e s between f o r .'.

ward c o s t and

selling price-for U 0

3 8

g i v e n i n Ref.

(1761,

(and a l l u d e d t o

i n Reference (161)), w i 1 1 m a t e r i a l i z e and f u r t h e r t h a t a l l t h e e s t i m a t e d a d d i t i o n a l reserves t a b u l a t e d i n t h i s Reference w i l l

be d i s c o v e r e d on a t i m e l y b a s i s

between now and the end of the c e n t u r y and t h a t t h e U 0

3 8

price w i l l stay

r e l a t i v e l y f i x e d o v e r the f i r s t 19 years o f t h e n e x t c e n t u r y due to new d i s c o v e r i e s o r breeders. T h i s seems c o m p l e t e l y

(1451,

reasonable as References

(159) and (232) suggest t h a t s u b s t a n t i a l a d d i t i o n a l d i s c o v e r i e s may

be p o s s i b l e i n t h e long r u n ) .

Combining the U 0

3 8

a v a i l a b i l i t y and p r i c e

d a t a o f Reference (176) w i t h the n u c l e a r g e n e r a t i n g c a p a c i t y d a t a i n Ref. (11) we a r r i v e d a t a when the U 0

3 8

mid-1974 d o l l a r s p r i c e o f S13/lb. u3°8

i n 1988 (which

f o r the i n i t i a l c o r e would have t o be purchased i n o r d e r t o

have a commercial LWR by o u r 1990 reference d a t e ) .

Other f u e l

c y c l e c h a r g t s necessary t o compute the i n i t i a l c o r e v a l u e were g a t h e r e d from Refzrences ( l l ) , (1451, follows:

(2311, and ( 6 ) and were assumed t o be a s

Conversion t o UF6 a t SlSO/lb.-U,

F a b r i c a t i o n a t $70/KgU.

Enrichment a t $75/SWU,

and F u e l

Using a l s o the f u e l c y c l e l o a d times g i v e n i n Ref. ( 1 1 )

and a 4.252 n e t o r r e a l r a t e o f i n t e r e s t ( t h e f u e l - c y c l e

inventory holding

"Forward cost i s used here as m a r g i n a l cost o f e x t r a c t i n g U j O g from e x i s t i n g mines based on government economies, i . e . , no p r o f i t , no c a p i t a l charges, e t c . S e l l i n g p r i c e i s U 0 c o s t fror,i f u t u r e mines based on i n d u s t r i a l economics.

3 8

153

charges a r e thus t r e a t e d e x a c t l y the same as i n t e r e s t d u r i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n ) , an i n i t i a l c o r e value o f

37.5 m i l l i o n d o l l a r s was c a l c u l a t e d .

Further,

the

f i n a l c o r e a t t h e end o f the assumed 30 year p l a n t 1 i f e has a discounted value o f 18.6 m i 1 1 i o n d o l l a r s . Using the same U 0

3 8

a v a i l a b i l i t y and nuclear c a p a c i t y b u i l d u p scenarios as

above,we used a $14/lb.-U

0

3 8

r e a c t o r ’ c o p e r a t i o n , $27/1b.-U $45/lb.-U 0

3 8

p r i c e f o r the f i r s t 5 years o f the reference 0

3 8

f o r the s e c m d 5 years o f o p e r a t i o n and

f o r the f i n a l 20 years o f r e a c t o r l i f e .

To t h e f u e l c y c l e charges

g i v e n above i s added a $120/kgU reprocessing and waste management charge. The r e a c t o r was assumed to move from t h e i n i t i a l c o r e c o n f i g u r a t i o n t o i t s steady s t a t e c o n f i g u r a t i o n as q u i c k l y as p o s s i b l e

(Le., as

soon as r e p r o -

cessed f u e l i s a v a i l a b l e i t i s assumed t o be r e c y c l e d a t the s t e a d y - s t a t e level).

For t h i s case no Pu r e c y c l e was considered and t h e r e f o r e the o u t -

p u t Pu from the r e a c t o r was assumed t o have no v a l u e . t h i s assumption was t h a t i f breeders a r e

The r a t i o n a l e behind

deemed safe, so w i l l Pu r e c y c l e ,

and then e i t h e r an LWR Pu r e c y c l e economy or an LWR-Breeder economy w i l l emerge i n the s h o r t run.

See Chapter 3 f o r a d i s c u s s i o n o f the c o s t s and

resource u t i 1 i z a t i o n s for these m u l t i p l e - r e a c t o r - s y s t e m s .

The steady s t a t e

r e l o a d mass balance used was again d e r i v e d from Referelices

( 3 ) . (71, and ( l l ) ,

and assumed a 0.15% t a i l s assay, f o r a 2/3rds Pwr-1/3 means t h a t 154 MT o f U 0

3 8’

BWR model r e a c t o r .

193 MT o f UF conversion, 102 MT

6

This

o f separative

w r k , 27.5 MTU of f u e l f a b r i c a t i o n and 26 MTU o f f u e l reprocessing a r e r e q u i r e d each year. c a l c u l a t e d as

456

The present v a l u e of the f u e l - c y c l e charges was

then

r n i l l i a n d o l l a r s ( i n c l u d i n g the i n i t i a l core and c r e d i t for

the f i n a l c o r e ) .

I54

Next, u s i n g t h e f o l l o w i n g i n p u t d a t a :

IT = N = PV(FC) =

4.24 5.26 4.56

x 10

(from l i n e 1 of Table)

x 10

( f r o m 1 i n e 2 o f Table)

x 10

(from above)

*

E l l o f n o t e f t o c a l c u l a t e the e l e c t r i c i t y g e n e r a t i o n

we can use e q u a t i o n c o s t as f o l l o w s :

7.17

Fue 1

0 & M

Capital

=

EC

+

7.86

7.70

+

mills 22.73 ~ w

=

~

e

w i t h the breakdown o f t h e c o n t r i b u t i o n s of t h e c o s t s o f v a r i o u s stages of the f u e l c y c l e t o t h e f u e l c o s t as shown i n the Table.

j.

c a p i t a l c o s t s ( n o t annual ized,

Fuel-cycle

*.

, spread

o v e r the assumed

f a c i l i t y 1 i f e t i m e ) and c o n s t r u c t i o n manpower and m a t e r i a l s requirements (annJ,r;ized o v e r the assumed f a c i l i t y l i f e t i m e s ) a r e p r i m a r i l y from r e f erence

(8).

For a more disaggregated breakdown of these requirements see

the r e f e r e n c e c i t e d i n note k o f Table A-1 as w e l l as references (1461,

(1471, (168), and (231). alternat;

.

For c a p i t a ! c o s t s f o r v a r i o u s waste d i s p o s a l

see r e f e r e n c e (20).

The c a p i t a l c o s t f o r underground u r i . l i u m m i n i n g would be $4.31 x 103/Mwe-yr. Manpower r e q u i r e d f o r such m i n i n g would i n c l u d e 1.08 MH/Mwe-yr o f e n g i n e e r s ,

6.9 x 10-1 MH/Mwe-yr o f f i e l d s u p e r v i s i o n and a d m i n i s t r a t i v e personnel, 6 . 3 x 00

-1

MH/Ilwe-yr o f f i e l d u n s k i l l e d manual l a b o r and

3.3 MH/Mwe-yr of

f i e l d s k i 1 l e d manual l a b o r , f o r a t o t a l c o n s t r u c t i o n manpower r e q u i rement of

5.70 MH/rlwe-yr. include 3 . 2 5 x

M a t e r i a l s r e q u i r e d f o r underground uranium m i n i n q would MT/Mwe-yr o f s t r u c t u r e metals and 8.45 x

MT/Mwe-yr

o f metals f o r major equipment f o r a t o t a l metals requirement o f 4.10 o f m e t a l s , as w e l l as 5.18 x 10

-2

MT/Mwe-yr o f c o n c r e t e .

-2

MT/Mwe-yr

k.

From references (21) and (231).

1.

From references

m.

Ba>ed on an energy p o t e n t i a l of 22,000 Kwht/gram

(7) and

(231).

U f o r complete f i s s i o n i n g o f U.

The " e f f i c i e n c y " of t h e upgrading f u e l s stage a c t u a l l y i n c l u d e s t h e whole f u e l c y c l e i n c l u d i n g reprocess ng. For t h i s system a small amount o f f i s s i o n p o t e n t i a l i s l o s t by d i s c a r d i n g Pu ani a g r e a t d e a l i s l e f t i n t h e enrichment t a i l s b o t h from r e oad and r e c y c l e o p e r a t ions.

A c t u a l l y i f a breeder economy emerges these

t a Is can be used as the f e r t i l e m a t e r i a l i n t h e breeders.

LYRs, hcqever,

use n a t u r a l uranium q u i t e i n e f f i c i e n t l y . n.

From references (21, (31, reactor

S

(61, (7), (9) and ( 1 2 ) .

i t e s ranges from 84-30,000

1160 acres ( r e f .

Land used f o r c u r r e n t

acres, w i t h an average comrni tment

of

( 1 4 8 ) ) , b u t much o f t h i s l a n d i s purchased t o accomGdate

f u t u r e expansions i n g e n e r a t i n g c a p a c i t y . used here i s from r e f .

The 250 acres per s i t e f i g u r e

(2) and should be viewed o n l y as a r e p r e s e n t a t i v e

figure. 0.

Net e f f i c i e n c y for n u c l e a r p l a n t s i s p r i m a r y energy e f f i c i e n c y a t t h e g e n e r a t i n g p l a n t c o r r e c t e d f o r t o t a l a n c i l l a r y energy use assuming a n c i l l a r y energy c o u l d by converted t o e l e c t r i c i t y a t t h e p r i m a r y e f f i c i e n c y a t t h e c o n v e r s i o n p l a n t . For example, n e t e f f i c i e n c y = 1/(3.13 -+ 0 . 1 3 ) = 0.307

p.

The t o t a l c a p i t a l charge can be found by adding t h e p ant and f u e l c a p i t a l cha rges

.

( $/ kWe Tot a

= 424 + 0.75 x 39 = 453$/kWe.

156

OF

REPE#IDU-

ORIGINAL PAGE IS POOR

>

P.u

e-

>

t Y

u-oc

~

a

c

w

I I

157

a

m o a - Q

I“ I

-1 1

--

Table E-2:

Footnotes

some HF- i s emitted i n the upgrading steps.

a.

Mostly CO,

b.

Mostly Th and U.

C.

The category o f "other"

a l s o includes nonradioactive water impacts whose

character was n o t s p e c i f i e d .

-

3.4 (10) 3 MT overburden from surface mining. See refs. 157-158.

d.

Includes 2.5

e.

Transport inpacts a r e very small and a r e included w i t h i n the o t h e r steps.

f.

The h i g h end o f these ranges represents a WR w i t h o u t advanced c o n t r o l s . A B\JR emits 0.016

3

o f 99% o f H

H 3 and 50 C i K r .

and K r

+

The low end represents the containment

Xe and i s the more l i k e l y a t the end o f t h i s century. (165, 166)

9 - Curies i n low l e v e l waste from power p l a n t . h.

3

Lowel- end represents containment o f noble gas radionuclides and H note f .

.

See

(43).

i. P 1 u ton ium.

j.

Includes

4.3 (10) 3 C i o f c l a d d i n g h u l l s .

I f noble gas i s contained approxi-

mately 6 ( l o r 3 gas cy1 inders a r e needed as k.

we1 1.

C i of depleted uranium t a i l s s t o i e d as UF

6 a t the enrichment p l a n t .

Chemicsl

t o x i c i t y would be the g r e a t e r hazard here.

1.

An a d d i t i o n a l be added.

a.5

MT/Mwe-yr o f d i s s o l v e d s o l i d s from c o o l i n g tower d r i f t c o u l d

(See r e f s . 50, 142, 186, 191, 193, 209, 214).

IE

4 .. m t

W

8

Table E-3:

a.

Footnotes

The r i s k o f cancer i s taken t o be 2.0 exposure.

(10)

Except f o r mining and acciden:s

o t h e r than whole body r o u t i n e exposures. of o t h e r exposures. fatal, b.

-4

cases/person-rem f o r whole body

no attempt has been made t o evaluate See ref.

186 and 188 f o r a d i s c u s s i o n

I n t h i s study one h a l f o f the cancers a r e assumed t o be

except for t h y r o i d nodules which are taken as 1% f a t a l .

(22, 188, 190).

The t o t a l genetic r i s k t o succeeding generations i s thought t o be roughly equal t o the somatic r i s k f o r the parent generation. l a r g e u n c e r t a i n t y i n the estimate o f t h i s r i s k .

(22).

However, there i s a A Working Level Month

(WLM) exposure t o uranium miners i s taken t o be 0.1 rem f o r g e n e t i c calcu-

1 a t ions

.

C.

Fuel c y c l e i n r e f . 1 1 .

d.

The lower end represents the +proximate

acc dent r a t e for surface mining

and the higher end represents underground mining. e.

These numbers represent 50%underground and 50%surface mining. taken to be equal t o

5

One WLM i s

rem t o the lung and the r i s k of lung cancer i s taken

t o be 1.6 ( l o r 5 cases/rem.

(This assumes a 25 year p l a t e a u p e r i o d o f cancer

i n d u c t i o n and i s taken from r e f . 2 2 ) .

About

55 underground miner-year5 per

year would be required t o s ~ p p l y100% o f the urenium f o r a 1000-Mwe p i a t 75% c a p a c i t i .

Each miner, therefore,

lung cancer per year. estimate.

(Ref.

(4 WLM/miner-year)

has about 3.0

-4

chances of

This would be considered only an order o f magnitude

5 , f o r example, determined the r i s k t o be about 5.2 (10) -4 and indl:ated

t h a t the r i s k might be several t i m e s higher

or lower.) (10, 139, 190) m i 1 1 and upgrade.

f.

Average

9.

Low end from r e f . 18 and high end from r e f . 7.

nf

(10)

BWR and PWR:

160

h,

(85 miles/Mwe-yr) x (2.0

- 800.0

(10)'"

large accidentdmile) x (10.0

-

1000.0 prs-remlaccident) x (0.0001 deaths/prs-rem) , Reference 18. i.

Material in transit from reprocessing plant to sale or storage.

j.

High end from ref. 187.

k.

Loss o f Coolant Accident (LOCA) and no Emergency Core Cooling leading to

core melt and loss of containment during the worst weather conditions.

For

the studies deal ing with severities only, we have appl ied the probabi 1 i ties in Wash-1400

(17). There are also uncertainties

we have not included in this table.

in the probabilities but

I f included the range indicated

here would extend this range considerably.

Estimates o f

the maximum individual risk range from seven (17) to three (200) orders of magnitude lower than the societal risk.

(6, 14, 17, 191, 192, 195-205)

Does not include sabotage.

1.

Reprocessing only (9).

See also Table H-3, note j .

No risk included from

long-term storage or disposal rJf nuclear wastes do to lack of information on these effects. m.

Reprocessingonly

-

31 day/injury (Ref. 7).

161

162

-T-%le F-1: a.

Footnotes

For the Pu-recycle o p t i o n , 83%of the U 0

3 8

r e c y c l e LWR i s required.

The numbers here a r e t h e r e f o r e

838

of those i n

The Pu r e c y c l e o p t i o n considered

the corresponding column o f Table E-1. here i s the o f t e n c a l l e d

requirement for a non Pu-

the s e l f generating r e a c t o r (SGR) o p t i o n i n

t h a t the LWR i s assumed t o burn up o n l y the Pu i t produces.

Option. i n

which several LWR's are used t o produce Pu f o r use i n a s i n g l e LWR thereAs p o i n t e d o u t i n Ref.

f o r e operate i n excess o f the SGR Pu requirement.

(12) though, LWR's o p e r a t i n g i n excess of about 1.15 SGR would r e q u i r e subs tan t ia l des ign mod if ic a t ions b.

For an LWR-Pu

83%o f

requirement and i s necessary.

.

the conversion requirement,

79%

o f the enrichment

67% o f t h e uranium f a b r i c a t i o n requirement o f an LWR

The resource u t i l i z a t i o n s f o r these a c t i v i t i e s can then

be simply scaled from data developed f o r Table E - 1 .

The rema n i n g 1/3

o f the f u e l load r e q u i r e s mixed oxide (MOx) f a b r i c a t on i n w h ch m a t e r i a l uranium i s blended w i t h recycled plutonium. C.

Remarks made i n notes c & d o f Table E-1 apply here as w e l l .

d.

As we assume safeguards a t a l e v e l c o n s i s t e n t w i t h plutonium d i s p o s i t i o n case I V o f Ref. (11) the cost and resource u t i l i z a t i o n s f o r repro:essing and waste management a r e assumed to be 30% h i g h e r than f o r the LWR case. However since o n l y 1/3 o f the spent f u e l i s

MOx, c o s t s and resource u t i l i -

z a t i o n p e r e l e c t r i c a l megawatt year increase by o n l y 10%. e.

The i n i t i a l core i n the present case was assumed t o be the same as i n the

LWR case and from Ref. ment f o r a SGR.

( 3 ) , \7),

LWR-Pu w i t h a

were assumed t o be:

and (11) the steady-state reload r e q u i r e -

75% capacity f a c t c r and a 0 . 2 3 tails

128 MT o f U,Oo, J

161 MT o f UF6 conversion, 81 MT

U

163

assay

of separative work, 18.2 MTU o f uranium f u e l element f a b r i c a t i o n , 9.0 MTH*of MOx f a b r i c a t i o n and 26.0 MTH o f spent f u e l reprocessing. not o n l y i s less U 0

assumed t h a t since Pu i s recycled ht:e per reactor-year,

but a l s o

3 8

cumulative 11 0

3 8

t o be 20% less than i n the LWR (Table E-1) estimating U 0

3 8

It was

required

requirements were assumed Using the methods f o r

case.

p r i c e s given i n note i of Table E-1, we derived f o r the p r i c e of $ l 3 / l b .

present case a U 0

3 8

years of reactor operation,$22/lb. operation,and $36/lb.

f o r t h e i n i t i a l core and f i r s t f i v e

for the 2nd f i v e years o f reactor

for the l a s t 20 years o f operation.

The cost o f

MOx f a b r i c a t i o n was assumed t o be twice t h a t o f uranium f u e l f a b r i c a t i o n (i.e.

$140/KgH) and the cost o f reprocessing MOx f u e l was assumed t o be

30% o r greater than the cost o f reprocessing uranium f u e l .

Using these

a d d i t i o n a l requirements anc "harges the present value o f f u e l charges over the l i f e of the reactor ( i n c l u d i n g i n i t i a l core cost and f i n a l core c r e d i t ) was calculated as 371 m i l l i o n d o l l a r s . Consequently, using;

8

I T = 4.24 x 10

(from f i r s t row of Table)

6

N = 5.26 x 10

(from second row o f Table)

8

( from above)

PV(Fi) = 3.71 x 10

We get an e l e c t r i c generation cost o f : capital

EC = 7.17

O G M

+

7.86

+

Fue 1 6.28

=

?..3l m i l l s KwHe

w i t h the breakdown o f the c o n t r i b u t i o n s o f the costs o f the various stages o f the fuel cycle t o the f u e l cost as shown i n the Table.

f.

Data on f u e l cycle c a p i t a l costs, as well as construction, labor, and m a t e r i a l s requirements including MOx fuel f a b r i c a t i o n and reprocessing faci 1 i t i e s was obtair ,d p r i m a r i l y frcm references (8) and (231

+

Metric ton o f heavy m e t a l (MTH).

164

1.

9.

From Ref. (231).

h.

From References (21,

(31, (91,

i. P r i m a r i l y from References (21,

and ( 1 2 ) .

( 3 ) . (9) and (12).

Plutonium d i s p o s i t i o n

o p t i o n I V from Ref. (12) where the MOx f a c i l i t i e s a r e assumed t o be contiguous w i t h the reprocessing f a c i l i t i e s , so t h a t no new land i s committed f o r the purpose o f f a b r i c a t i n g MOx fuels.

This measure i s pro-

pcsed for safeguards reasons, however, not p r i m a r i l y as a land saving measure.

j.

P r i m a r i l y from References

k.

See note m, Table E-1.

( 3 ) , (71, (91, and

164

(12).

Table

F-2:

a-d.

See Table E-3,

e.

Footnotes

70% of LWR UF

6

notes a-d. enrichment and UO

emissions ( 1 2 ) .

2

f a b r i c a t i o n emissions p l u s YOx f a b r i c a t i o n

Here taken as 90% o f mean LWR value.

--

See Table E-2.

twice as much i f beta r a d i a t i o n i s included.

f.

Alpha r a d i a t i o n

9.

See E-2, note k.

h.

See E-2, note e.

i.

No s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s from LWR plants.

j.

See E-2, note f

k.

See E-2, note y .

1.

No s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e ir. emissions compared t o LiJR except f o r Trans-U

.

i n f i n a l waste. m-o. p.

See E-2, notes h-j. See f o o t n o t e 1 Table E-2

I

L

z

I VI - I +

U

-

V

w

W L L

O l L

m

168

w

Table F-3:

a,b.

Footcotes

See Table E-3,

notes a and b.

c.

Fuel c y c l e I;.

d.

A LWR-PU Recycle system r e q u i r e s about 83% as much uranium m i n i n g as a LWR

r e f . 12.

(12)

without recycle. e,f. 9.

See Table E - 3 ,

notes d and e.

Under a1 t e r n a t i v e

4

See a l s o r e f . 163.

i n r e f e r e n c e 12, r e p r o c e s s i n g and f a b r i c a t i o n p l a n t s

and the t r a n s p o r t o p e r a t i o n s between them and the r e a c t o r would be s u b j e c t t o enhanced s e c u r i t y arrangements. h.

Same as LWR.

See a l s o r e f .

Perhaps t h e r e would be s l i g h t l y more impact because o f

shipments t o and from MOx p l a n t s .

(Ref.

3 times the exposure o f LWR system b u t

12 i n d i c a t e s t h e r e c o u l d be up t o

i t uses e s t i m a t e s a t the low end

the LWR estimates.)

i. See Table E - 3 ,

note g.

j . See Table E - 3 ,

Note i.

k. See Table E-3, Note k. I . Reprocessing o n l y . m.

See Table E - 3 ,

1 4 1 , 164.

See Table H - 3 , n o t e j.

n o t e m.

0'

170

Table G - 1 : a.

Footnotes

Includes the m i n i n g and m i l l i n g o f a small anount o f U 0

3 8

Pu.

The

U 0

3 8

requirement a c t u a l l v t u r n s out to be0.758

f o r blending w i t h

o f t h a t for an LWR

and so the q u a n t i t i e s g i v e n i n t h i s column a r e b . 7 5 % of those g i v e n i n t h e f i r s t column of Table

E-1.

I n the e a r l y years o f the Breeder much o f the

requirement f o r f e r t i l e m a t e r i a l w i 1 1 be met by u t i 1 i z i n g d e p l e t e d uraniu,:, t ' r a t has been s t o c k p i l e d as enrichment t a i l s i n t h e p r e p a r a t i o n o f e n r i c b - d

f o r LWRs.

uranium f u e l

I n a mature breeder econony, however, some U 0

3 8

must be mined. b.

Includes the purchase of Pu f o r the c r i i t i a l c o r e and the f i r s t two annual \e remainder o f t h e r e a c t o r 1 i f e ,

reloads, p l u s the s a l e of bree Pu

as w e l l as f u e l element f a b r i c a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s , which have an assumed l i f e time of 30 years. c.

considered t h e t r a n s p o r t o f n u c l e a r

As f o r the o t h e r r e a c t o r tonct,ts

f w i s from f a c i l i t y t o f a c i l i t y c o s t s v e r y l i t t l e and r e q u i r e s o n l y a small cmitment

o f non-fuel

resources.

C m s e q u e n t l y , t r a n s p o r t c o s t s and resource

u t i l i z a t i o n s a r e included i n the t o t a l s g i v e n f o r o t h e r stages o f t h e n u c l e a r fuel cycle. d.

? h i s column i n c l u d e s c o s t s and resource u t i 1 i z a t i o n s c . - s o c i a t e d w i t h t'ie o p e r a t i o n o f a model LMFBR w i t h a o f 7 5 4 and a pian:

e.

392

therrval e f f i c i e n c y , a - a p a c i t y f a c t o r

l i f e t i m e o f 30 years.

This column includes f u e l reprocessing and waste managecent. f a c i l i t i e s a r e p o s t u l a t e d t o be v e r y much l i k e those

i i d

The reprocessing

t.) r e p r o c e i s LWR

rue1 and are assumed t o have a L h i r t y year l i f e t i m e .

f.

Based on d i s c u s s i o n s i n R e f e r

' s ( 6 ) i t i s assuried t b , j t t h e

c a p i t a l c o s t i o r the f i r s t LMFBks w i l l exceed t h a t o f an LWR by about $ 1 L 5 / K w e . See Reizrence

(232) f o r a c r i t i q u r o f t h i b c o s t e s t i m a t e .

9.

Conventional 0 6 M c o s t s a r e based on a scale-up f r o m LWR 0 f w i t h t h a t g i v e n i n Ref.

h.

M i n accordace

(6).

The f u e l resource requirements (both those for t h e i n i t i a l c o r e and f o r reloads) were taken from References

(3), ( 6 ) , and (111.

The i n i t i a l core

53 MT o f U 0 2.37 MT of Pu and 47 MTH"of f a b r i c a 3 8'

was assdmed t o r e q u i r e

t i o n and 19.2 YTH of reprocessing w : t h the f i r s t two reloads r e q u i r i n g an a d d i t i o i b a l 1.61 MT o f P u and 20.6 MT of U 0

3 8

because i t was assumed ( i n

accordance w i t h f u e l c y c l e t i m i n g d a t a g i v e n i n Ref. (11))

that recycled

m a t e r i a l c o u l d n o t be r e t u r n e d t o t h e r e a c t o r u n t i l the second annual r e load a f t e r discharge. The U 0

3 8

p r i c e s c e n a r i o used was i d e n t i c a l t o t h a t used for the LWR-PU The p r i c e of Pu was s e t ,qual

system (see Table F-1).

t o i t s v a l u e as a

r e c y c l e f u e l i n LWRs ( t h i s b e i n g p r e d i c a t e d on the asslrmption t h a t d u r i n g the e a r l y days o f the Breeder i t would have o n l y a small impact on t h i s estab; isk,ed market value). prevailing U 0

3 8

Consequently the Pu p r i c e depends u p m the

p r i c e (as w e l l as t h e p r e v a i l i n g t a i l s assay, the c o s t of

s w a r d t i b e work and the c o s t d i f f e r e n t i a l between MOx and uranium o x i d e fuel fabrication).

was b a s i c a l l y assumed t h a t 1 grarn o f Pu c o u l d be

It

s u b s t i t u t e d f o r 0.8 grams o f U-235 and t h e r e f o r e t h a t 1 gram of Pu was "wrth"

144 grar

o f U 0 and 96 SWUs but that a c o s t p e n a l t y o f about $1.50

3 8

i s i n c u r r e d by having t o f a b r i c a t e MOx LWR-PU f u e l as opposed t o Uranium cxide fuel.

This g i v e s a Pu p r i c e o f $lO/gr f o r the f i r s t

o p e r a t i o n , $12.5O/grfor

5

years of r e a c t o r

the second f i v e years of o p e r a t i o n and S20/gr

for

the l a s t 20 years of r e a c t c r o p e r a t i o n . One would probably need a n e l a b o r a t e s y s t e m s a n a l y s i s model t o adequately account f o r the e f f e c t s o f the r a t e s t

uf b u i l d u p of c a p a c i t y o f i h e u i f f e r e n t r e a c t o f typcs on the p r i c e t>f Pu.

! :

M e t r i c ton o f heavy metal (MYH)

172

As b u i l d i n g and j u s t i f y i n g such a model was c l e a r l y beyond the scope o f i t i s somewhat r e a s s u r i n g t o n o t e t h a t a l t h o u g h e s t i m a t e s o f

t h i s study,

Pu p r i c e i n our time frame range from n e g a t i v e ( f o r t h e c o s t of d i s w s i n g o f a product already i n abundant S U P F ~ Y ) t o about $40/g

(where breeders

a r e assumed t o have a c l e a r e c o - m i c advantage even a t a h i g h Pu p r i c e and t h i s e f f e c t i s thus r e i n f o r c i g as t h e r e e x i s t s an i n c e n t i v e to expand Breeder c a p a c i t v as q u i c k l y as p o s s i b l e ) most o f those w e have seen a r e i n the $10 t o $20 range. Using t h i s f u e l c y c l e requirement

and c o s t d a t a the prese t v a l u e o f f u e l

c o s t s over the e n t i r e r e a c t o r l i f e was c a l c u l a t e d a t 147 m i l l i o n d o l l a r s .

i. C o l l e c t i n g d a t a from above as f o l l o w s : I T = 5.50 x 10 N =

5.83

6

x 10

(from f i r s t row o f Table)

(from second r o w o f Table)

8

PV(FC) = 1.47 x 10

we may use e q u a t i o n (f:") of n o t e g, Table E-1 t o c a l c u l a t e the c o s t o f generating e I e c t r ic t y u s i n g the LMFBR system as:

0 & M

Cap i t a

EC

j.

=

9.29

+

9.90 +

Fuel 2.40

=

21.7 mills/KwHe

C a p i t a l c o s t and c o n s t r u c t i o n manpower and m a t e r i a l s requirements were abtained l a r g e l y froi,i Ref. ( 8 ) .

As phase I of the k z h t e l study d i d n o t

e x p l i c i t l y i n c l u d e the LMFBR several ( p o s s i b l y h e r o i c ) assumptions had t o be made t o o b t a i n the data shown.

F i r s t o f a l l , t h e LMFBR power p l a n t was

assumed t o r e m i i r e the same amoiints o f c o n s t r u c t i o n manpower and m a t e r i a l s a s an LWR.

i n Ref. ( 6 ) .

A t the l e v e l o f aqgregation o f our d a t a t h i s

Even a t a mol

r

i b

clearly i m p l i e d

disaggregated level, m a t e r i a l s requirements f o r

an LMFBR compared w i t h those f o r J PWR a r e e s t i i a t c d t o be q u i r e . i c r , i l a r

(e*

compare estimated composite and p r i m a r y m a t e r i a l s requirements g i v e n

f o r an LMFBR i n S e c t i o n 5 of Ref. i n Ref.

(168)

( 6 ) . w i t h d a t a g i v e i i for the same m a t e r i a l s

F u r t h e r , the f a b r i c a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s for LMFBR f u e l s a r e

assumed to be s i m i l a r t o those used for 14Ox f a b r i c a t i n g f o r the LWR-PU system and reprocessing f a c i l i t i e s a r e assumed t o be s i m i l a r to those used to reprocess LWR f u e l .

These assumptions a r e a l s o used i n Ref.

(6).

k.

P r i m a r i l y f r o m Ref.

1.

P r i m a r i l y from References

m.

See n o t e m, Table E-1.

( 3 ) and ( 6 ) .

(6).

u

Y

+L

X Q

175

Table 6-2:

a.

Footnotes

?he amount o f uranium mining and m i l l i n g r e q u i r e d f o r the LMFBR c y c l e i s about 0.75% of the requirement f o r the LWR cycle.

See t a b l e s E-2 and f o o t -

notes. b.

HF-release

C.

The t o t a l u n c e r t a i n t y i s l a r g e r than indicate.’

d.

Plutonium i n s o l i d waste from f a b r i c a t i o n p l a n t .

e.

Uranium i n s o l i d waste from f a b r i c a t i o n p l a n t .

f.

About 0 . 2 MT/Mwe-yr of d i s s o l v e d s o l i d s from c o o l i n g tower d r i f t could be

,

here.

See Section 111-8-2.

See note c.

added he re. 9-

Low end i s more probable.

High end i s u n c o n t r o l l e d release o f K r , Xe and

H-3. (174) h.

5.9 m3 / Mwth-yr c o n t a i n i n g 4.8 C i a t EBR-II (175).

1.

Includes cladding h u l l s . Mwe-yr a r e needed.

If K r i s contained, 6 . 3

See Refs. 170-175, 191.

176

(,Or3

gas c y l i n d e r s /

a

Q LL

c

A

I

177

Table

C-3 :

a,b.

See notes a and b of Table E-3.

Footnotes

c.

Fuel c y c l e i n reference 3.

d.

O.,j%

o f the uranium requirement o f the LWL cycle.

See Table E - 3 , notes

d and e.

e.

From reference 6.

f.

See note j of Table E-3.

9.

Although the mechanisms leading t o accidents and the accident c o n d i t i o n s

See a l s o Table E-3,

note h.

might be very d i f f e r e n t i n LMFBRs, t h e u n c e r t a i n t i e s i n t h e analyses do n o t a l l o w a d i s t i n c t i o n t o be made between the p r o b a b i l i t i e s o f severe a c c i -

I n f a c t , reference 191 c a l c u l a t e s the

dents i n LMFBRs as compared t o LWRs.

p r o b a b i l i t y o f f a i l u r e leading t o a s i g n i f i c a n t release o f r a d i o i s o t o p e s t o be

-

10-5/reactor-year

f o r a LMFBR which i s close t o the 6.0(10)'5

c a l c u l a t e d i n W-1400 (17) f o r a LWR. (6) The s e v e r i t y o f LMFBR accidents may a l s o be q u i t e d i f f e r e n t from L J R s . B a s i c a l l y there a r e very s i m i l a r amounts o f f i s s i o n products i n both systems and any d i f f e r e n c e i n e f f e c t s r e s u l t s from the much l a r g e r amount o f plutonium and the existence o f r a d i o a c t i v e sodium i n LMFBR (as w e l l as the d i f f e r e n c e i n release mechanisms, f u e l rods

containment systems, e t

..I.

Reference 191 c a l c u l a t e s t h a t o n l y 3 . 4 gram o f plutonium could be released i n t h e l a r g e s t accident. be released.

Ref. 175 c a l c u l a t e s t h a t o n l y 0 . 0 3 grams would

These amounts reprc

:

q

t

fractions of

t o 19-* o f the t o t a l

plutonium inventory and o n l y a very small a d d i t i o n t o the r a d i a t i o n doses caused by the f i s s i o n product releases.

Under these c o n d i t i o n s , the sever!See Table E - 3 )

How-

ever, there i s some doubt about the v a l i d i t y o f such small releases.

Ref-

i t y o f LMFBR accide:;ts i s s i m i l a r t o LWR accidents.

erence 191 c a l c u l a t e s the t o t a l r i s k o f LMfBRs as 10''

to

deaths/

h e - y r , s i m i l a r t o or smaller than the r i s k f o r LWRs i n W-1400 (17).

It

should be emphasized t h a t these estimates are subject t o even more uncert a i n t y than the LWR r i s k estimaLes. h.

Reprocessing o n l y (6).

(6, 172-175)

See a l s o Table H-3,

Does not i n c l u d e sabotage.

note j .

No r i s k included from

long-term storage o r disposal o f nuclear waste due t o l a c k o f i n f o r m a t i o n on these effects.

179

L

0

44

0

m aJ

(z

v

Q)

8

V

cn

m

L1

aJ L

3

Y

m

L

0)

P

E

I-

I

0 .I c I

r 0

c

a m

t-

180

Table H-1:

a.

Footnotes

I n c l u d e s t h e m i n i n g and m i l l i n g o f about as w e l l as about reload.

56%

o f an LWR's U 0

3 8

requirement

8 MT o f Tho2 (thorium oxide) p e r annual steady s t a t e

A c t u a l l y , i t may not be necessary t o mine t h o r i u m for some t i m e

as i t i s a byproduct of o t h e r m i n i n g o p e r a t i o n s (e.g.

phosphate m i n i n g ) ,

as w e l l as b e i n g abundantly a v a i l a b l e i n Canadian uranium m i l l t 3 i l i n g s . Eventually,though,some

t h o r i u m would need t o be mined.

A facility

l i f e t i m e of 20 years was assumed f o r b o t h uranium and t h o r i u m m i n e - m i l l comp 1exes. b.

I n c l u d e s conversion o f uranium o r e t o

UF6 and subsequent enrichment o f

m a t e r i a l as w e l l as t h e f a b r i c a t i o n o f HTGR f u e l elements.

ril;s

The U-233

produced i n t h e r e a c t o r (from v i r g i n ThoZ) i s assumed t o be r e c y c l e d ,

U-235

i s assumed t o be r e c y c l e d o n l y once and Tho2 ir assumed n o t t o be r e c y c l e d ( a c t u a l l y t h r e e types o f f u e l rods a r e f a b r i c a t e d , b u t a5 t h e HTGR f u e l c y c l e i s i n general q u i t e complex, i t i s n o t c o m p l e t e l y d e s c r i b e d here and t h e i n t e r e s t e d reader i s r e f e r r e d t o Ref. tion). c.

(183) f o r

a complete d e s c r i p -

A 30 year f a c i l i t y l i f z was assumed.

T r m s p o r t c o s t s and resource u t i l i z a t i o n s (which a r e again s m a l l ) a r e i n c l u d e d i n t o t a l s g i v e n f o r o t h c r stages o f the f u e l c y c l e .

d.

The model HTGR power p l a n t i s assumed t o have thermal e f f i c i e n c y of a capacity factor of

e.

392,

75% and a p l a n t l i f e t i m e o f 30 years.

Includes f u e l reprocessing as w e l l as waste management.

A 30 year l i f e

i s assumed f o r these f a t : ! ; t i e s . f.

Based on data given i n References ( 6 1 , c a p i t a l cost of $38O/Kwe,

(81, and

excluding i n t e r e s t during corijtruction

i n t e r e s t ti*Jring c o n s t r u c t i o n a t 10.5/0 apd r a t e i s 4.258.

(37) we a s s u m a m i d - 1 9 7 4

6:;

Adding

i n f l a t i o n , the r e a l i n t e r e s t

For a 3 . 7 5 year c o n s t r u c t i o n p e r i o d , w e g e t a t o t a l c a p i t a l

I81

c o s t o f about $440/Kwe. I n accordance w i t h d a t a g i v e n i n Ref. (6) c o n v e n t i o n a l 0 G M c o s t s f o r

g.

at1 HTGR a r e assimed t o be equal t o those for a n LWR.

h.

Based p r i m a r i l y on d a t a g i v e n i n References ( l l ) , the i n i t i a l c o r e wits assumed t o r e q u i r e

469 MT o f UF6 conversion, 339 MT fue of

element f a b r i c a t i o n . ,h02,

work,

8.3

39

(isg),

MT o f Tho

2'

(1831, and (231,

374

o f s e p a r a t i v e work and

MT of U308,

37 MTHQof

Annual reloads were assumed to r e q u i r e

87 MT o f U308, 110 MT o f UF6 conversion, 79 MT MTH o f f u e l element f a b r i c a t i o n , and

reprocessing, w i t h an a d d i t i o n a l

7.3

8 MT

of separative

MTH o f f u e l element

64 MT o f U 0 79 MT o f UF c o n v e r s i o n 3 8' 6

and 57 MTSWU r e q u i r e d f o r each o f the f i r s t t w o annual reloads because r e c y c l e d m a t e r i a l i s ncjt assumed t o be a v a i l a b l e annual r e l o a d a f t e r discharge. Ref.

f o r r e l o a d u n t i l the second

F u e l - c y c l e t i m i n g d a t a were a g a i n taken from

(11). Using these d a t a the present v a l u e o f the f u e l c y c l e c o s t s o f

the 1 i f e o f the r e a c t o r was c a l c u l a t e d to be 298.2 m i l l i o n d o l l a r s .

i.

C o l l e c t i n g the f o l l o w i n g d a t a from above:

IT = 4.40 x 10

(from r o w one of the Table).

N = 5.26 x 10

(from row t w o o f the Table).

'

PV(FC) = 2.98 x 10

(from note h above).

We can a g a i n use Equation (*) o f n o t e g, Table A-1 t o c a l c u l a t e the e l e c t r i c g e n e r a t i o n c o s t as: Capital

EC j.

=

7.49

O t M -t

8.09

,t

Fue 1 5.14

=

20.67

Fuel c y c l e c a p i t a l c o s t s and c o n s t r u c t on l a b o r and m a t e r i a l s requirements a r e from Ref.

(8).

Once a g a i n the fue

c y c l e c a p i t a l c o s t s arc n o t annualized,

w h i l e the c o n s t r u c t i o n l a b o r and mater a l s requirements a r e annual ized by the assumed f a c i l i t y l i f e t i m e .

5

M e t r i c ton o f heavy metal (IITH).

182

k.

We assume t h a t 0 & M personnel necessary to r u n a t h o r i u m mine i s i d e n t i c a l t o t h a t necessary t o r u n a uranium mine and also t h a t the number o f people reeded t o r u n an HTGR power p l a n t i s i d e n t i c a l t o t h a t necessary t o run an LWR power p l a n t .

The reader i s , t h e r e f o r e ,

r e f e r r e d t o note 1 of

Table F-1 f o r the a p p r o p r i a t e references.

1.

Uranium mining i s assumed to be 100% e f f i c i e n t . H a r v e s t i n g F u e l s i s t h e r e f o r e based on a Ref. ( 2 ) .

95% m i l l

The 95% e f f i c i e n c y f o r e f f i c i e n c y as g i v e n i n

The p r i m a r y energy i n p u t t o the h a r v e s t i n g f u e l s a c t i v i t y ( e q u i v -

a l e n t to the energy i n the e x t r a c t e d o r e ) i s assumed t o be 22,000 KWht per gram o f uranium, which correspocds t o the energy t h a t would be produced i f e v e r y atom o f uranium f i s s i o n e d . References m.

( 3 ) , ( 6 ) , (181), (182).

P r i m a r i l y from References

For a n c i l l a r y energy requirements see and

(184).

( 3 ) , ( 6 ) , (181), (182) and ( 1 8 4 ) .

0

i 84

table -9.

H-2:

Footnotes

56% of LWR uranium mining and m i l l i n g requirement. t - o ' . f ~ . Impacts

See t a b l e E-2 and foot-

from thorium mining would add about 10% t o these impacts

(3,184) but have not been added because s u f f i c i e n t thorium w i l l be a v a i l a b l e for a loiig time a= : byproduct o f other mining processes.

t

Includes small amounts o f HF-.

C.

Low end i s from r e f . 3 and h i g h end from r e f . 183.

d.

Uranium and thorium

e.

Plus 0 . b K dissolved s o l i d i n cooling tower d r i f t .

f.

I nc 1odes xenon.

9-

W I

end from r e f .

(3) plus 8 i kg uranium as UF6 (0.03 C1) i n storage.

7. (3).

h.

Stored sol i d waste

1.

With advanced controls:

H-3

0.28 C i

Kr-85 The r e s t would be stored as

j.

Mostly carbon-14.

k.

H N O ~( 3 ) .

1.

P I uton ium.

m.

8.S(IO)'3

Mt

thorium.

5.8 C i .

H-3 hydrate and compressed Kr-85.

I n addition, 5.8(10)-'

MT (0.002 C i ) o f uranium

(2% U - 2 3 5 , 64% U-236, 34% U-238) t o be sold o r stored. n.

H-3 as hydrate (see note i ) and ~ 2 ( l O ) C- ~i 1-131 as powder ( 3 ) . See Refs.

179-185.

185

W b-

-

.. m

.-uu i

oc

I

ln

Y

0 vl

I

I

u

c

n

ln

I-

w u

t w

% e -iu Y

Table H-3:

a,b.

Footnotes

See Table E-3,

notes a and b.

C.

Fuel cycles from r e f .

d.

Requires about notes d and e.

3.

56% as much uranium as the LWR cycles (3).

See Table E-3,

No thorium mining included here.

e.

40% less exposure than the LWR c y c l e (5, 6).

f.

I n t r a n s i t from enrichment p l a n t to f a b r i c a t i o n p l a n t , from reprocessing p l a n t t o f a b r i c a t i o n p l a n t and f a b r i c a t i o n p l a n t t o reactor.

9.

Annual average dose from the F t . S t .

5.0

Vrain f a c i l i t y i s estimated t o be

t o the population w i t h i n 14 miles.

(185)

For approximately

50,000 people and 330-be a t 75% capacity t h i s i s 1.0 (10) h.

-4

prs-redMwe-yr.

There i s some i n d i c a t i o n from B r i t i s h experience w i t h gas reactors and separate estimates t h a t HTGRs may be somewhat safer than LWRs (179,196). data are n o t a v a i l a b l e t o make a c l e a r d i s t i n c t i o n .

i.

See note e.

j.

World exposure from Kr-85 and H-3.

However, the

See Table E-3.