Technological forecasting: renewable energies

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Revista Espacios. Vol 34 (Nº 5) Año 2013

Espacios. Vol. 34 (5) 2013. Pág. 4

Technological forecasting: renewable energies generation in Brazil Previsao tecnológica sobre a generacao de energía renovable no Brasill Diogo José Horst 1; Winicyus Dihl 2 y Antonio Carlos de Francisco 3 Recibido: 06122012 Aprobado: 16022013

Contenido 1. Introduction 2. Technological forecasting 3. Biomass uses 4. Capacity of Research and Depelopment (R&D) 5. New trends 6. Conclusion 7. Literature cited Gracias a sus donaciones esta página seguirá siendo gratis para nuestros lectores. Graças a suas doações neste site permanecerá gratuito para os nossos leitores. Thanks to your donations this site will remain free to our readers.

ABSTRACT:

RESUMO:

This paper presents a technological forecasting about the renewable energy generation in Brazil. We performed a literature review which one identified potential issues regarding to the development, implementation and monitoring of technologies, and trends to areas which use biomass, transportation sector, wind power generation, power plants, distributed generation, among others, as also mentions the ability to research & development of this country. As result, technologies for generating renewable energy are available, but are poorly implemented/improved and/or developed. We identified gaps in the integration between university/company and government regarding the use of these technologies in Brazil delaying the production/generation of these energies, and also in generating patents and contributions to research and development. In the other hand, the country has full potential to generate renewable energy, because it has diversified and selfsufficiency in some areas, such as in the production of ethanol and biodiesel. Keywords: technological prospective, renewable energy, research & development, Brazil.

Este trabalho apresenta uma previsão tecnológica sobre a geração de energia renovável no Brasil. Foi realizada uma revisão da literatura que se identificou possíveis problemas em relação ao desenvolvimento, implementação e monitoramento de tecnologias e tendências para áreas que utilizam a biomassa, o setor de transporte, geração de energia eólica, usinas de energia, geração distribuída, entre outros, como também menciona a capacidade para pesquisa e desenvolvimento deste país. Como resultado, as tecnologias para geração de energia renovável estão disponíveis, mas são mal implementados / melhorados e / ou desenvolvidos. Foram identificadas lacunas na integração entre universidade / empresa e governo em relação ao uso dessas tecnologias no Brasil, atrasando a produção / geração dessas energias, e também na geração de patentes e contribuições para a pesquisa e desenvolvimento. Por outro lado, o país tem potencial para gerar energia renovável, porque tem diversificado e autosuficiência em algumas áreas, como na produção de etanol e biodiesel. Palavraschave: prospectiva tecnológica, energia renovável, pesquisa e desenvolvimento, o Brasil.

1. Introduction http://www.revistaespacios.com/a13v34n05/13340504.html

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The energy issues are increasingly vitally demonstrated to all countries. Real proofs of this are the current geopolitical conflicts related to the use of fossil fuels. Many existing technologies over time were still not considered economically viable, but due to enhancements in the current price of oil barrels from U$$ 20 to 60, 70, U$$ 80,…, many technologies have become. Much of the discussion about the Brazilian energy matrix mainly preaches diversification of sources, particularly for electricity generation. However, this debate is misleading because it is not discussed in isolation about energy sources, but all the conversion technologies and end uses of energy. They allow certain sources to become more competitive than others. So it has been throughout the history of energy development, from the steam engine to gas turbines, in marine platforms for oil extraction, in the use of internal combustion engines, in wind generators and also through so many other technologies. Technologies that were able to convert primary energy in necessary services with more efficiently, with lower costs, among other factors, thus allowed the gradual replacement of coal by oil and oil by natural gas, for example. Actually are the technologies that compete with each other and not exactly the sources of energy. Much of the oil consumption is for the petrochemical industry. But it is necessary to invest in biotechnology in an attempt to find materials that eventually replace the articles from the petrochemical fractionation. Actually, it is already possible to produce most of the same products and biodegradable feedstock bases. Right now, the big challenge is to make the right choices and that they allow preserving future generations contributing to the sustainability of the planet with regard to the use of forms of clean and renewable energy. Brazil has diversified energy matrices with selfsufficiency in some areas. For example, the country is leading in research & development and production of biodiesel and ethanol. Scenarios for 2020 indicate that ethanol is a lasting trend, and Brazil is currently recognized as the world´s leader in its production. Energy experts agree that in the next 10 or 20 years, ethanol will be a very important source of energy. And there are many ways to produce ethanol, resulting in the pulp, waste trash, cane sugar, and other biomass. Moreover, in our country today there are agricultural politics operative, which allows further increase to the importance of the use of ethanol. Another key factor is the investment in genetic research to generate new and modified types of plants to produce more ethanol, with more efficiency and more economically viable. In 30 or 40 years, solar and hydrogen sources will emerge as important sources of energy. And according to most researchers, the manner of electricity use will also expand and improve. Inside these contexts, this article deals with a technological foresight on the generation of renewable energy in Brazil, with the currently available technologies, their evolution and the future trends related to this subject, but also demonstrates the country's situation regarding to the capacity of Research & Development (R&D).

2. Technological forecasting The technological forecasting is the lifting of technologies relations and its support activities for its development so as to attend the expectations and demands of a society. It also can be defined as a http://www.revistaespacios.com/a13v34n05/13340504.html

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systematic means of mapping out future scientific and technological developments can significantly influence the industry, the economy or society as a whole. Unlike the traditional forecasting activities dedicated to anticipate one suppose future as unique, the foresight exercises are built on the premise that there are many possible futures (Gavigan, 1999). More precisely in cases where the present actions change the future, such as what occurs with the technological innovation. Future technological advances depends on how complex and unpredictable allocation decisions are taken today by a relatively large number of noncollusive agents (Barros, 2002). Forecasting national studies has two great accepted virtues: they are relevant to assess the state of the art Science and Technology (S & T), as influencing the technological future of the country from an assessment of present conditions and, second, mobilize more different actors involved in S & T, academics and non academics to think in a collective and continuous country technological needs and issues. Due to these characteristics, the national projects know and think about the technological sites, to serve as a mobilizer exercise and tool for the formulation of politics. As mobilizer exercise, it increases the collective knowledge about future technological opportunities, and as a tool, it offers formulators of national planning, and public or private information in large quantity and with good quality (Barros, 2002).

3. Biomass uses The energy production in the XX century was largely dominated by fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) that still represented in the beginning of the century XXI, about 80% of all energy produced in the world (WEA, 2000). Currently renewable resources represent about 20% of total energy supply worldwide, and 14% from biomass and 6% from hydro sources. In Brazil, the proportion of the total energy consumed is about 45%, in other words, renewable resources supply almost a half of the energy requirements by the country (SENAI, 2007). Nonetheless, experts indicates that future projections shows that the importance of biomass will increase a lot, coming to represent in the end of the century XXI from 10 to 20% of all energy used by mankind (Goldemberg, 2009). According to data by the International Energy Agency (IEA) released in Brazil by the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME), in twenty years, 30% of the total energy consumed by humanity will be from bioenergetics matrix (MME, 2010). Currently there are a large number of technologies for biomass to energy conversions that are suitable for applications in small and large scales. Among them are included gasification, methods of producing heat and power (MHP) for cogeneration, energy recovery from municipal solid wastes, landfill gas, beyond biofuels for the transportation sector (ethanol and biodiesel). Recent interest in biomass energy is obtained and given emphasis on applications that produce liquid fuels for the transport sector (IAC, 2007). Between all the current available options, ethanol produced from sugar cane is the most commercially successful biomass fuel in production today (Goldemberg, 2007). Ethanol from sugarcane has a positive energy balance and has been benefited through the support of government policies in several countries, including in Brazil, which currently supplies about 40% of the fuel for passenger cars (one third of its total demand of energy for transportation) with ethanol from sugar cane (Goldemberg, 2008). The most common fuels produced from biomass had as main raw materials: agricultural residues, wood http://www.revistaespacios.com/a13v34n05/13340504.html

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and plants, and municipal waste. The municipal waste, a major problem for the public administration around the world may have turned its potential, because it can be directly converted into fuel for transportation, for industry and houses. It is also worth mentioning that the generation of electricity from biomass has been widely defended as an important alternative for all major countries. National programs began to be developing in order to increase the efficiency of systems for combustion, gasification and pyrolysis of biomass (Balat, 2011). However, in Brazil still lacks a policy for the use of industrial wastes for energy generation. Considering these aspects, energy industry experts believes that the Brazilian research centers have an important role to play in this scenario of recomposition of the global energy mix. The area of bioenergy tends to grow in large proportions in the coming years (CGEE, 2006). Therefore it is necessary that measures should be taken with regard to the energy sector which uses biomass, as shown in Table 1, according to an adapted technological forecasting performed by the National Industrial Apprenticeship Service SENAI, (2007): Improvement in technologies for transesterification reactions between alcohol and oil for more efficient biodiesel production Improvement in technologies for utilization of residual biomass Using of biochemical methods, enzymatic and acid hydrolysis and fermentations Developments in technologies for agricultural production of biomass energy Genetic improvement on sugar cane varieties for ethanol production Technologies for better production of methanol from biomass Advanced technology for combustion of biomass Technologies for incineration of urban wastes and solid composting Crops for agroenergy in combination with the use of waste from agroforestry for heat and electricity production Synthetic fuels through the production of synthesis gases from biomass Widespread use of biogas in landfills as an energy source Technologies for agricultural production of biomass Technologies for mixed combustion Small gasification set (