Journal of Vocational Behavior 60, 262–288 (2002) doi:10.1006/jvbe.2001.1867, available online at http://www.idealibrary.com on
Teenage Aspirations for Future Careers and Occupational Outcomes Ingrid Schoon City University, London, United Kingdom
and Samantha Parsons Institute of Education, London, United Kingdom In a follow-up study of over 17,000 individuals born 12 years apart (in 1958 and 1970) this article investigates the formation and realization of teenage career aspirations in a changing sociohistorical context. Two types of analytical models, a mediating model and a contextual systems model, were used to analyze the processes by which the effects of social structure influence teenage aspirations and subsequent occupational attainment. Both models suggest that teenage aspirations in combination with educational attainments are a major driving force in the occupational development of young people and that they mediate the effects of socioeconomic background factors. The contextual system model is an elaboration of the mediating model, providing additional insights into the effects of distal and proximal contexts. Differences in the experiences of young people growing up 12 years apart indicate that the sociohistorical context plays a key role in shaping occupational progression. For the later born cohort the importance of educational credentials has increased, both in influencing teenage aspirations and predicting adult occupational outcomes. C 2002 Elsevier Science (USA) Key Words: teenage aspirations; adult occupational attainment; changing sociohistorical context.
Most research on vocational choice has been conducted with high school or college students based on the assumption that the young people under investigation give serious consideration to the matter. A number of studies have confirmed that This work was funded by the UK Economic and Social Research Council Grant R000238051. The project on which this article draws was done in collaboration with John Bynner, Heather Joshi, and Dick Wiggins, who provided helpful comments and suggestions for this study. A previous version of this article was presented at the 7th Biennial Congress of the European Association for Research on Adolescents (EARA) in Jena, June 2000. Thanks are due to the anonymous referees for their constructive comments. Address correspondence and reprint requests to Ingrid Schoon, City University, Northampton Square, London EC1V 0HB, UK. E-mail:
[email protected]. 262 0001-8791/02 $35.00 C
2002 Elsevier Science (USA) All rights reserved.
TEENAGE ASPIRATIONS
263
adolescents, even before reaching high school level, have detailed knowledge about jobs and the social context in which these jobs are embedded (Cook et al., 1996; Nurmi, 1991; Vondracek et al., 1999). Gottfredson (1981) has argued that by adolescence most youngsters have established a set or range of occupations that they consider as acceptable alternatives and which reflect their view of where they fit into society. Career aspirations expressed by adolescents are, however, generally believed to be unstable and likely to change many times before adulthood (Phipps, 1995; Super, 1980; Trice & McClellan, 1993). The stability of occupational choice during school and college years has been extensively studied, but there are very few prospective longitudinal studies that actually link teenage aspirations and adult occupational achievement. The aim of this article is to investigate the predictive power of early aspirations for adult occupational attainment, taking into account the effects of educational achievement and family background factors. Additionally the impact of contextual changes will be assessed by comparing the transitions from education to employment of two cohorts born 12 years apart, in 1958 and in 1970.
A DEVELOPMENTAL-CONTEXTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR THE STUDY OF OCCUPATIONAL PROGRESSION The processes resulting in an occupational choice have been described in terms of individual differences in aptitudes and personality, on the one hand, and sociostructural conditions emphasizing social class and opportunity structures, on the other. Conceptualizing occupational choice as an expression of personality assumes that particular personality characteristics match the particular characteristics and affordances of an occupation (Holland, 1985; Holland & Gottfredson, 1976, 1992). According to this view occupational choice is a result of a process in which people seek environments that are compatible with their personality characteristics. Conceptualizing career development as an individual-based phenomenon, however, does not sufficiently attend to the constraints of social circumstances, since, for many individuals vocational development depends more on existing opportunity structure than choice (Roberts, 1981). A useful metatheory that synthesizes individual and structural viewpoints has been conceptualized by Vondracek, Lerner, and Schulenberg (1986) in their developmental-contextual model of career development. The model draws on life-span development theories and contextualist perspectives, conceptualizing development as “the dynamic interaction between a changing (developing) individual and in a changing context” (1986, p. 5). Unlike the life-span, life-space approach developed by Super (1980), which takes the individual as its focal point of interaction, or Gottfredson’s (1981) developmental theory of occupational aspirations, which emphasizes the effects of personal factors in career choices, the contextual-developmental approach stresses the mutual embeddedness of individual and context. The notion of dynamic interaction implies that individuals influence the contexts that influence them and that no one level of analysis in isolation can be considered the “prime mover” of change (Vondracek et al., 1986, p. 71). The model also takes account of time,
264
SCHOON AND PARSONS
recognizing that individuals develop within a particular historical context and, moreover, as they develop they move through a changing set of contexts.1 The developing individual is portrayed as being embedded in an interconnected set of contexts, which either have a direct impact, the proximal systems, or an indirect impact, the distal systems, which are often mediated by the more proximal contexts. Proximal systems include the immediate social and material setting in which one is situated. Distal systems include social class, the parents’ workplace, and cultural or societal norms and customs where the individual is not an active participant in the setting. It is well documented that social background is associated with aspirations for education, occupational aspirations, and occupational status attainment and that the pattern of class inequality is much the same across most industrialized countries (Blau & Duncan, 1967; Erikson & Goldthorpe, 1993; Erikson & Jonsson, 1996; Oden, 1968; Sewell, Haller, & Ohlendorf, 1970; Shavit & Blossfeld, 1993; Shavit & M¨uller, 1998; Zuckerman, 1977). Explanations of these phenomena emphasize the different opportunities and socialization processes that exist across socioeconomic status levels. Individuals from more privileged homes have more educational opportunities, greater access to financial resources when they are needed (i.e., to pay for higher education), role models, occupational knowledge, and informal/kinship networks (Erikson & Jonsson, 1996; Schulenberg, Vondracek, & Crouter, 1984). This transmission of resources across generations has been described in sociological literature by the term “social reproduction.” For a better understanding of the link between social structure and individual development, however, it is not enough to acknowledge that the various features of the context impact on individual development, it is also necessary to recognize that the context consists of multiple levels changing interdependently across time (Vondraceck et al., 1986). It has been argued that social class operates as a distal system that relates to children’s development indirectly through the proximal context of the family environment—through the material resources available to the family; educational opportunities and encouragement offered to the child; and the emotional resources of parents, which may affect the quality of the relationship with their children (Bronfenbrenner, 1979; Vondraceck et al., 1986). Furthermore, societal circumstances beyond the control of the individual contribute considerably to the development of individual potential, and a major task confronting the individual throughout the life course is to cope effectively with the changing social reality. THE EFFECTS OF SOCIAL STRUCTURE Previous empirical studies have confirmed that socioeconomic background accounts for significant components of the association of measured ability, schooling, 1 Shifts in role or setting which occur throughout the life course have been described as ecological transitions (Bronfenbrenner, 1979), as, for example, entry into preschool or school, graduating, finding a job, marrying, having a child, changing jobs, moving, and retiring.
TEENAGE ASPIRATIONS
265
and occupational status. It has been argued that the effects of socioeconomic origin are mediated through individual factors such as educational and occupational aspirations (Erikson & Jonsson, 1996; Shavit & M¨uller, 1998; Sewell & Hauser, 1975). Occupational aspirations, especially aspirations for managerial or professional occupations, are linked to educational plans or aspirations, and pronounced differences in educational and occupational aspirations have been found depending on social class and ability level (Sewell & Hauser, 1975). Gottfredson (1981) has argued that young people develop ideas about the appropriateness of certain occupations and consider the relationship between opportunities and ability that affect their plans regarding education and employment.2 In their consideration of which occupations are acceptable or tolerable, children orient to social class reference groups and are guided by their parents’ aspirations for them (Ginzberg et al., 1951; Gottfredson, 1981; Vondraceck et al., 1986). It has been suggested that parents have, and youngsters adopt, different views about what is an acceptable job depending on their social class (Ginzberg et al., 1951; Gottfredson, 1981; Rosen, 1956). Sewell and Shah (1968) indicated that parental encouragement for young people to attend college increases by both social class and ability level. Aspirations among middle-class children are considered to be higher than among children from a working class background because the former internalize more successfully the ambitions of their parents, since they have more opportunity to reach their ambitious goals (Keller & Zavalloni, 1964). Parental aspirations for the child are often taken as markers of cultural influences operating at the family level (Roberts, 1980; Vondraceck et al., 1986). The processes linking social background to the developing individual, however, are not yet fully understood. It has been emphasized by Roberts (1980) that we should not underestimate working class parents’ ambitions to see their children succeed. This is an important consideration, given the findings of Elder (1999), who illustrated that men from deprived families who show high vocational commitment or ambition have a slightly greater occupational attainment then their less ambitions peers. Elder argues that the desire to excel is the most important source of achievement among men of lower status origins: The “desire to excel is less restricted than IQ to achievement through education, as one would expect, and exerts a stronger direct effect on occupational attainment than either mental ability or family status” (Elder, 1999, p. 175). The aim of this article is to investigate the processes by which the effects of social structure mediate onto the formation and realization of teenage aspirations for the future and to assess the predictive power of teenage aspirations for adult occupational attainment, taking into account the effects of family background and educational attainment. The impact of structural forces in a changing social context will be analyzed using structural equation or latent variable modeling
2 Gottfredson’s developmental model of occupational aspirations considers structural constraints and has revived Ginzberg et al.’s (1951) notion of compromise. Yet it does not account for contextualism, the link between macrolevel societal change and individual development.
266
SCHOON AND PARSONS
FIG. 1. The Mediating Model.
techniques (Bollen, 1989). Structural equation modeling (SEM) allows us to formulate theoretically derived hypotheses about variable relationships. In the following two models, the mediating model and the contextual systems model are tested. A diagrammatic representation of both models is given in Figs. 1 and 2.
FIG. 2. The Contextual Systems Model.
TEENAGE ASPIRATIONS
267
The variables shown are all latent or unobserved variables. Both models consider the effects of a changing sociohistorical context, which are not shown in the diagram but are taken into account in the analyses by the application of the models to two cohorts of young people growing up 12 years apart. The mediating model tests the hypothesis whether the influence of social background is mediated via teenage educational achievements and aspirations onto adult occupational attainment. The model postulates that the influence of parental social class (assessed when the child was aged 16) on adult occupational attainment operates via teenage educational achievements and aspirations. It is assumed that aspirations and academic achievement are correlated, as indicated by Sewell and Hauser (1975). Parental social class directly influences educational attainment and aspirations of the young person. It is assumed that young people from privileged backgrounds show good educational attainment and high aspirations for the future (Sewell & Hauser, 1975). Educational attainment and aspirations of the teenager in turn influence or predict later occupational attainment. The direct path from family social class to occupational attainment in adulthood represent the direct relationship between family social class and attained occupational status that is mediated by unknown factors not made explicit in the model. The contextual systems model involves a second, more exploratory step in the analysis, testing the hypotheses whether the influence of social class on educational attainment and aspirations can be understood as being mediated through the proximal family environment. This model is an elaboration of the mediating model and will provide additional insights into complementary elements of the same process. Social class of the parents is considered as a distal system that is mediated through the more proximal family context, i.e., the material conditions in the home and the parental aspirations for the teenager. Thus, there are pathways in the diagram from parental social class to material conditions and parental aspirations. It is hypothesized that parents from privileged social backgrounds have high aspirations for their child (Rosen, 1956; Sewell & Shah, 1968) and provide good material conditions, including financial resources (Erikson & Jonsson, 1996; Vondracek et al., 1986). The relationships between the proximal system and the individual are reflected in the pathways from material conditions and parental aspirations to academic achievement and aspirations of the teenager. It is assumed that aspirations and academic achievement are correlated, as indicated by Sewell and Hauser (1975), and that they increase with the material and aspirational encouragement from the parents (Erikson & Jonsson, 1996). Finally, the model describes the processes determining adult occupational status, testing the predictive validity of both educational attainment and aspirations for later occupational attainment. The paths from academic achievement and occupational aspirations to adult occupational attainment indicate the independent effect of both individual variables on later outcomes. The direct path from family social class to occupational attainment in adulthood again represent the direct relationship between family social class and attained occupational status that is mediated by unknown factors not made explicit in the model.
268
SCHOON AND PARSONS
THE CHANGING SOCIOHISTORICAL CONTEXT By taking a longitudinal perspective this study will compare the transitions from school to work in two age cohorts born 12 years apart, using data from two nationally representative population samples of British children born in 1958 and in 1970. Changes in social, economic, and education policies between 1960 and 1980 resulted in the two cohorts of children growing up in very different sociohistorical environments. A period of economic depression lasting from 1979 until 1986 resulted in a dramatic loss of heavy manufacturing and textile occupations (Bynner, Elias, McKnight, & Pan, 1999). Unemployment and concerns over security of employment directly affected parents during this time period and held indirect consequences for their children. Moreover, the mid-1980s saw the virtual disappearance of the youth labor market in Britain (Banks et al., 1992). In response to technological transformation and the changing nature of labor markets and employment, young people were under increasing pressure to continue full-time education beyond the age of 16 years and to acquire formal qualifications (Bynner, 1998). Poor educational achievement, which presented no significant barrier to employment in the past, now predicts real difficulties in finding employment and ultimately exclusion from the labor market (Bynner, Joshi, & Tsatsas, 2000). A growing number of young people now participate in higher education, once the preserve of a privileged minority, and it has been argued that the predictive power of educational credentials for occupational attainment has increased over the past decades (Erikson & Jonsson, 1996; Shavit & Blossfeld, 1993; Shavit & M¨uller, 1998). Thus, in both the mediating and the contextual systems model, it is assumed that the predictive power of educational attainment has increased for the later born cohort. Adopting a longitudinal approach has a number of methodological advantages regarding the research questions: reports of early life events are not influenced by knowledge of the subsequent personal histories, the cohorts includes appropriate controls, and the conjoint impact of different factors can be assessed in a multivariate model. Furthermore, the longitudinal approach enables us to investigate the validity of teenage aspirations for predicting occupational outcomes and can go beyond studies predicting the stability of vocational preferences. METHOD The study used data collected for the 1958 National Child Development Study (NCDS) and the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70), two of Britain’s richest research resources for the study of human development. NCDS took as its subjects all persons living in Great Britain who were born between 3 and 9 March 1958. In five follow-up studies data were collected on the physical, psychosocial, and educational development of the cohort at ages 7, 11, 16, 23, and 33 years. The BCS70 has followed children born in the week of 5–11 April 1970. Data collection sweeps have taken place when the cohort members were ages 5, 10, 16, and 26 years. In this analysis data collected at age 16 years in both cohorts is linked to data collected at age 26 for BCS70 and at age 33 for NCDS.
TEENAGE ASPIRATIONS
269
Sample The analysis is based on the cohort members with complete data for the key variable of interest, namely the expression of occupational aspirations at age 16 (n = 11,016 for NCDS and n = 6,417 in BCS70). An analysis of response bias showed that the achieved sample did not differ from the target sample across a number of critical variables (social class, parental education, and gender) despite a slight underrepresentation of males and the most disadvantaged groups (see Shepherd, 1993, 1995). Bias due to attrition of the sample during childhood has been shown to be minimal (Butler et al., 1997; Davie, Butler, & Goldstein, 1972; Fogelman, 1976). Potential bias due to missing variable information is addressed in the section on estimating the model. Measures Occupational aspirations. At age 16 the NCDS cohort members were asked, “What do you expect to be your first full-time-job?” The responses to the openended question were coded according to different categories reflecting the social status of the occupational choice. BCS70 cohort members were given a choice of occupations with the following introduction: “Nearly everyone of your age has some sort of idea of what they will want to do in life. Here is a list of types of jobs/careers/professions for which various amounts of training are necessary. How about your choice? . . . Please tick a box to indicate your first choice for type of career.” The original list of response categories was used as a basis for coding both questions and is given in Table 1. For both cohorts we identified cohort members with high aspirations, i.e. those expecting to pursue professional or managerial occupations (1), and with less TABLE 1 Coding of Occupational Aspirations in the Two Cohorts NCDS (Coding categories)
BCS70 (Preformulated choice alternatives)
Professional/Managerial
Professional (needing a degree) Managerial/Nursing/Teaching Trained clerical, administrative—office work Salesman/representative Shop worker Food industry/restaurant Health worker Processing worker (computer, information technology) Service work (cleaning/dish-washing) Transport worker Worker in manufacturing, assembling products or goods Maintenance worker (repairs and services) Craftsman/designer Worker on farm/agriculture/fishing industry HM Forces
Clerical Worker Service Worker
Manual Worker Craftsmen Farming Armed Forces Artistic/Sport
270
SCHOON AND PARSONS
ambitious occupational choices, i.e. those making for skilled, semiskilled, or unskilled jobs (0). The questions about occupational aspirations are not quite equivalent in the two surveys. NCDS cohort members were asked what they expected to be doing, whereas the BCS70 cohort members were asked to state what they actually wanted to do. Yet, the BCS70 question may nevertheless have filtered out the more realistic responses by making it clear that a degree was needed for a professional career. The use of a one-item measure of occupational aspirations is justified, since expressed interest in a profession has been shown to be equal or to exceed interest inventories in predicting the category of a person’s future occupation (Dolliver, 1969; Holland, Gottfredson, & Baker, 1990; McLaughlin & Tiedeman, 1974; Whitney, 1969). Educational aspirations. To establish their educational aspirations, cohort members were asked whether they wanted to continue full-time education and to obtain a degree. Cohort members had to indicate at what age they were most likely to leave school and which of the following they would like to do on leaving: continue with full-time study, do a job that involved part-time study, or do a job that required no further study. The answers to these two questions have been combined into a scale indicating the strengths of school motivation as follows: (3) = post-18 education, (2) = post-16 education or training, or (1) = leave at 16. In NCDS there is an additional group, (0) = wish had left at 15, as these teenagers were the first to experience compulsory education up to age 16. Educational achievement at age 16. For both cohorts the highest qualifications obtained at age 16 were recorded, ranging from none (0), CSE grades 2–5 (1), to CSE grade 1, or O-level grades A–C (2). In addition an overall “exam score” could be calculated from the examination performance at age 16. The actual examination results of the NCDS cohort were collected from schools in 1978, whereas BCS70 cohort members self-reported their examination results in a follow-up study in 1986. The examination system was the same for both cohorts, with BCS70 being one of the last cohorts to sit the two-tiered examination structure of O-levels and CSEs. A simple scoring technique was applied to the results, giving a score of 7 to a grade A O-level and a score of 1 to a grade 5 CSE for each paper passed. Scores range from 0 to 106 in NCDS and from 0 to 97 in BCS70. Family background factors. These are indicated through parental social class at age 16. In both cohorts social class is measured by the Registrar General’s social class (RGSC). The RGSC is defined according to job status and the associated education, prestige (OPCS, 1980),3 or lifestyle (Marsh, 1986). The social class of both father and mother is measured by their current or last held job and coded in the same way on a 6-point scale as follows: I = professional, II = Managerial and technical, IIINM = Skilled non-manual, IIIM = Skilled manual, IV = Partly skilled, V = Unskilled (Leete & Fox, 1977). For ease of interpretation, this scale 3 The Registrar General’s measure of social class is divided into six ordinal categories (I, II, III non-manual, III manual, IV, and V). Class I represents the highest level of prestige or skill and class V the lowest.
TEENAGE ASPIRATIONS
271
is reversed, so that high scores represent high status as follows: (1) = social class V and (6) = social class I. Material Conditions Overcrowding. For both cohorts, this is the ratio of people living in the household to number of rooms in the household (excluding bathrooms and kitchens). Housing tenure. The tenure of the home is defined as (0) = owner-occupier or (1) = other. State benefits. Parents are either (1) = not in receipt of benefits or (0) = in receipt of benefits (excluding pensions and child benefit) in the past 12 months. Parental aspirations for the teenager. In both cohorts parents were asked about their hopes for their child regarding school leaving age and further education. This comprised two questions in NCDS and four questions in BCS70. The questions were combined and coded (3) = post-18 education, (2) = post-16 education or training, and (1) = leave at 16 no further education/training. In NCDS there is the additional category (0) = wish teen had left at 15.4 In addition the parents in both cohorts were asked what their expectations were regarding the school leaving age of the child. The questions were coded as above. Occupational attainment in adulthood. Occupational Attainment or status was assessed at age 26 for BCS70 cohort members and age 33 for NCDS cohort members, who were asked to indicate their current profession. Professions were coded as before, following the Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) of Registrar General’s social class (RGSC) developed by the Office of Population and Census Surveys (OPCS, 1990), using a 6-point scale (I = Professional, II = Managerial and technical, IIINM = Skilled non-manual, IIIM = Skilled manual, IV = Partly skilled, V=Unskilled). Another indicator of occupational attainment is the Erikson–Goldthorpe Scale (GS), which measures social position based on dimensions of the work setting such as being an employer or employee, performing manual on nonmanual work, and the type of relationships between employees and employers (Erikson & Goldthorpe, 1993). GS is coded on a scale ranging from 10 to 72, differentiating seven categories as follows: I = higher-grade professionals, managers in large industrial establishments, large proprietors; II = lower-grade professionals, higher-grade technicians, managers in small business and industrial establishments, supervisors of non-manual employees; III = routine non-manual (largely clerical) employees in administration, commerce and services; IV = small proprietors and self-employed artisans; V = lower-grade technicians, supervisors of manual workers; VI = skilled-manual workers; and VII = semi-skilled and unskilled manual workers. Statistical Analyses The study involves a cross-cohort comparison of social background, occupational and educational aspirations, educational attainment, and adult occupational 4
The minimum school leaving age was raised from 15 to 16 years in 1973.
272
SCHOON AND PARSONS
attainment. It should be kept in mind that individual variables are not exactly identical for the two cohorts. Great care was taken to define the latent constructs in as similar a way as possible in the two cohorts. To make the analysis as transparent as possible, the distribution of the observed variables are shown for both cohorts. The analyses were all carried out using the structural equation modeling program AMOS 4.01 (Arbuckle, 1999). The estimation method in most structural equation modeling programs is maximum likelihood. The AMOS program allows maximum likelihood estimation based on incomplete data, known as the full information maximum likelihood (FIML) approach. FIML is preferable to estimation based on fully observed data [the listwise deletion (LD) approach] since FIML estimates will tend to show less bias and be more reliable than LD estimates even when the data deviate from missing at random and are nonignorable (Arbuckle, 1996). The model was fitted separately to the NCDS and BCS70 data. The FIML estimates of the observed variables in the model are shown in Table 2. In line TABLE 2 Sample Sizes and Means for Observed Variables in the National Child Development Study (NCDS) and the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70) Based on Univariate Sample Data and the Full Information Maximum Likelihood (FIML) Estimates from the AMOS Modeling NCDS
BCS70
Univariate
FIML estimates
Univariate
FIML estimates
N
N
N
N
M
M
M
M
Family background Father’s social class Mother’s social class
8002 5105
Educational achievement Exam Score at age 16 Highest Qualification at 16
9902 17.74 11016 17.63 3992 24.26 6407 22.03 9902 1.17 11016 1.16 5032 1.47 6407 1.46
Teenage aspirations Job Aspirations at age 16 School Motivation at age 16
3.44 11016 3.19 11016
3.41 4405 3.13 3564
3.84 6407 3.51 6407
3.76 3.45
11016 10178
1.24 11016 1.57 11016
1.24 6407 1.60 5900
1.31 6407 0.96 6407
1.31 0.96
Material conditions Overcrowding Housing tenure Receipt of benefits
8743 8838 8789
6.97 11016 0.51 11016 0.78 11016
6.97 5226 0.51 5330 0.78 5330
4.38 6407 0.76 6407 0.76 6407
4.38 0.76 0.76
Parental aspirations Hopes for school leaving age Expectations for school leaving age
8278 8336
2.00 11016 1.74 11016
1.98 4087 1.74 4026
1.10 6407 0.95 6407
1.03 0.87
Occupational attainment RGSC Goldthrope Scale
9959 3.75 11016 3.75 6791 3.95 6407 4.02 10152 37.15 11016 37.00 6902 47.14 6407 47.72
TEENAGE ASPIRATIONS
273
with current practice, several criteria were used to assess the goodness of fit of the model to the data. The χ 2 statistic is overly sensitive to model misspecification when sample sizes are large or the observed variables are nonnormally distributed. The root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA) gives a measure of the discrepancy in fit per degrees of freedom: it is bounded below by zero, only taking this value if the model fits exactly (Steiger, 1990).5 The final index of choice is the comparative fit index6 (CFI), whose values are restricted to lie on a 0-to-1 continuum, with higher values indicating a better fit (Bentler, 1990). RESULTS In a first analytic step the hypothesis whether social class influences on occupational attainment are mediated by educational achievement and aspirations was tested, and the mediating model was fitted to the data. A well-fitting solution was 2 found for the NCDS data (χFIML = 66; d f = 14; χ 2 /d f = 4.7; CFI = 1.000; RMSEA = 0.018; 90% CI = 0.014–0.023). The parameter estimates were all significantly different from zero, highly significant ( p < .001), and in the predicted direction. Table 3 shows the standardized parameter estimates for both cohorts. The standardized coefficients for the model fitted to the NCDS data (the structural model) are shown in Fig. 3. The data suggests that parental social class effects on occupational attainment are indeed mediated via teenage aspirations and educational attainment. Parental social class has a large7 influence on teenage aspirations and a medium to large effect on educational attainment. Teenage aspirations and educational attainment are moderately linked. The best predictor of adult occupational attainment are teenage aspirations. Educational attainment and parental social class have a small but highly significant impact on occupational attainment of comparable size. The combined effects of the variables in the model can explain 33% of the variation in the variance of teenage aspirations, 22% of the variance in academic ability, and 31% of the variance in adult social status.8 2 A well-fitting solution was also found for the BCS70 data (χFIML = 35.96; d f = 2 14; χ /d f = 2.57; CFI = 1.000; RMSEA = 0.016; 90% CI = 0.009–0.022). The parameter estimates were all significantly different from zero, highly significant 5 The RMSEA is useful because it encompasses the idea that a model is only expected to provide an approximation to the data rather than an exact fit. If the RMSEA is 5.
( p < .001), and in the predicted direction. Table 3 shows the standardized parameter estimates for both cohorts. The standardized coefficients for the model fitted to the BCS70 data (the structural model) are shown in Fig. 4. The data suggest that also in the later born cohort parental social class effects on occupational attainment are mediated via teenage aspirations and educational attainment. Parental social class has a large influence on teenage aspirations and on educational attainment. Teenage aspirations and educational attainment are strongly correlated. The best predictor of occupational attainment as an adult
TEENAGE ASPIRATIONS
275
FIG. 3. The Mediating Model (NCDS).
are, again, teenage aspirations followed by educational attainment. In comparison to the earlier born cohort the impact of educational attainment on occupational attainment has doubled in size. The effect of parental social class on occupational attainment is only small but highly significant (the effect size has remained the
FIG. 4. The Mediating Model (BCS70).
276
SCHOON AND PARSONS TABLE 4 Distribution of Predictor Variables (Percentages) in the National Child Development Study (NCDS) and the 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70) Percentages NCDS
BCS70
Material conditions Housing Tenure: % owner occupied Crowding (>1 person per room) Family on any state benefits in last 12 months
50 60 23
72 17 17
Parental aspirations Parents expect child to have further education Parents hope child has some further education
47 64
68 79
same as in NCDS).9 The combined effects of the variables in the model can explain 34% of the variation in the variance of teenage aspirations, 28% of the variance in academic ability, and 35% of the variance in adult social status. The next question asked is whether the influence of parental social class on educational attainment and teenage aspirations is mediated via the proximal family environment, indicated by the material conditions in the home and the parental aspirations for the child. To get a better understanding of the context experienced by the young cohort members, the distribution of the mediator variables is shown in Table 4. Generally we can see that material conditions have improved during the 12-year interval. More families own their own home, and there is less overcrowding and less dependence on state benefits. Parental aspirations regarding future education and training for their child are higher for the later born cohort. The contextual systems model was fitted to the data. A well-fitting solution 2 was found for the NCDS data (χFIML = 433; d f = 55; χ 2 /d f = 7.9; CFI = 0.998; RMSEA = 0.025; 90% CI = 0.023–0.027). Table 3 shows the standardized parameter estimates for both cohorts. The parameter estimates were all significantly different from zero, highly significant ( p < 0.001), and in the predicted direction. The combined effects of the contextual variables in the model can explain 72% of the variation in the variance of teenage aspirations, 39% of the variance in academic ability, and 31% of the variance in adult social status. The standardized coefficients for the model fitted to the NCDS data (the structural model) are shown in Fig. 5. Parental social class strongly influences the material conditions at home. Growing up in family where the parents are in unskilled or semiskilled work is associated with living in rented accommodation, overcrowding, and receipt of benefits. There is also a strong influence of parental social class on the parental aspirations for the child, and parents from a more privileged background are more likely than 9 As in the NCDS cohort, the direct impact of parental social class on occupational attainment is of moderate size (r = .45) and can explain 21% of the variance in adult social status.
TEENAGE ASPIRATIONS
277
FIG. 5. The Contextual Systems Model (NCDS).
less privileged parents to aspire to a postsecondary education for their child. The teenager’s aspirations and educational attainments are clearly influenced by the proximal system of the family environment. Educational achievement is moderately influenced by the material condition in the home, indicating that material advantage predicts good academic achievement. Another significant, but again only medium strong, predictor of academic achievement is parental aspirations, whereby high parental aspirations are associated with good academic attainment. Academic achievement of the teenager, in turn, is moderately correlated with teenage educational and occupational aspirations, indicating that teenage aspirations for the future are formulated in view of own academic achievements. It seems that the teenager’s own aspirations are most strongly influenced by the parental aspirations. If parental aspirations are high, so are the teenager’s aspirations. Looking across the life span, the best predictors of occupational status at age 33 are teenage aspirations followed by the impact of parental social class and then by the academic achievements. If the young person had high aspirations at age 16 they had a good chance to realize them. This chance would increase if the individual came from a professional family background and had good academic achievements. 2 A well-fitting solution was also found for the BCS70 data (χFIML = 176; d f = 53; χ 2 /d f = 3.3; CFI = 0.999; RMSEA = 0.019; 90% CI = 0.016–0.022). The parameter estimates were all significantly different from zero, highly significant ( p < .001), and in the predicted direction. The standardized coefficients for the model fitted to the BCS70 data (the structural model) are shown in Fig. 6. The diagram shows only the latent variables.
278
SCHOON AND PARSONS
FIG. 6. The Contextual Systems Model (BCS70).
Family social class is a very strong predictor of material conditions in the family home (stronger than in NCDS) and of parental aspirations for the teenager (to a lesser extend though). Educational achievement of the young person is best predicted by the material conditions in the family household followed by parental aspirations. The teenager’s aspirations are again strongly influenced by parental aspirations, but only moderately by the material conditions in the family home. Academic achievement and aspirations of the teenager are much stronger correlated than for the NCDS cohort (r = .58 versus r = .33). Academic achievement and aspirations have a similar, moderate impact in predicting occupational attainment, followed by a small direct impact of parental social class. Overall the model can explain 66% of the variance in the aspirations, 42% of the variance in academic ability, and 35% of the variance in social status attainment at age 26.
DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION The findings show that in both cohorts teenage aspirations are a good predictor of adult occupational attainment: young people with high aspirations are more likely than their less ambitious peers to enter a professional or managerial career. There are, however, significant differences in the processes that lead to the formulation and realization of teenage aspirations between the two cohorts. Our study used data collected for two birth cohort studies. Cohort members turned 16 in 1974 (NCDS) and 1986 (BCS70) respectively. In consequence to the virtual disappearance of the youth labor market that occurred between 1979 and 1986, the later born cohort encountered more complex and varied education, training, and
TEENAGE ASPIRATIONS
279
employment choices. In both cohorts parental social class is a strong predictor of both educational achievement and teenage aspirations. In the NCDS cohort, however, we can observe that academic achievement and aspirations of the teenager are only moderately linked, suggesting also that teenagers who are not doing too well at school are developing high aspirations for the future. Furthermore, in NCDS occupational aspirations are a better predictor of adult social status than academic achievements (r = .39 versus r = .10). These findings indicate that the “desire to excel” is an important source of achievement that can counterbalance educational limitations among individuals from more disadvantaged backgrounds, as has been suggested by Elder (1999).10 Young people in the earlier born cohort had indeed better opportunities for career development that were less dependent on their academic achievements, as has been suggested by Bynner, Joshi, and Tsatsas (2000). The association between academic achievement and aspirations is much stronger for BCS70 than for NCDS, illustrating that for the later born cohort academic achievement plays a more important role in influencing the self-conceptions of the young people. Furthermore, the data support the assumption that the predictive power of educational credentials for occupational attainment has increased over the past decades (Erikson & Jonsson, 1996; Shavit & Blossfeld, 1993; Shavit & M¨uller, 1998).11 The direct impact of parental social class on occupational attainment, instead, has remained the same for the two cohorts. There are, however, changes in the processes by which the effects of social class are transmitted. The mediating model shows that in both cohorts the impact of parental social class on occupational attainment is mediated via educational attainment and aspirations, as suggested in previous studies (Erikson & Jonsson, 1996; Shavit & M¨uller, 1998; Sewell & Hauser, 1975). While the impact of family background on teenage aspirations has remained nearly the same, there is a slight increase of social inequality in educational attainment among the later born cohort. The contextual systems model furthermore suggests that social class operates as a distal system, influencing educational attainment and teenage aspirations via the proximal context in the family environment, especially through the material conditions in the home. Teenagers growing up in households where they have no room of their own, or possibly even desk or table to do their homework, are less likely to do well in school. We have seen that material circumstances have generally improved for the later born cohort. Those suffering deprivation are consequently more disadvantaged relative 10 The same model was run separately for cohort member born into a working-class family and cohort members born into a middle-class family. The association between academic achievement and aspirations is slightly lower for the young people from a working-class background, but the impact of occupational aspirations on achieved social status in adulthood is as strong as for the middle-class children. 11 The BCS70 cohort is slightly younger than the NCDS cohort (26 versus 33 years). The stronger link between adult occupational status and academic achievements might therefore also be explained by the closer timely proximity. Yet, educational achievement has been established as the most important channel for selecting young people born in 1970 for success or failure in the labor market (Bynner et al., 1999).
280
SCHOON AND PARSONS
to other children in BCS70 than similarly affected children in the NCDS. This might explain the greater direct effect of social class on material conditions in the later born cohort and consequently the greater (direct and indirect) effect of social class on educational attainment. Material conditions have improved generally, yet social class continues to be a barrier for individual achievements. If material disadvantage is accompanied by lack of parental aspirations for their child, the detrimental impact on school achievement is increased. The contextual systems model shows that parental aspirations are a strong predictor of teenage aspirations. This is slightly less so for the later born cohort, possibly indicating an increasing importance of other influences on teenage aspirations not included in this analysis, such as peer group or school effects. Generally high parental aspirations seem to have a strong influence on the teenager to be well motivated at school and to develop high occupational aspirations. The same processes can be observed in both cohorts. The findings confirm the importance of parent–child relations, and in particular parental support, in shaping the occupational development of their children. When members of the dyad take an active interest in each other, the dyad becomes more powerful and the members become more influential to each other’s development (Bronfenbrenner, 1979; Vondraceck et al., 1986). In interpreting the results, some limitations of the study should be noted. This work involved a cross-cohort comparison of individuals growing up 12 years apart. A latent variable modeling approach was used to develop shared conceptual models for the two cohorts. The emphasis has been to investigate relationships between latent variables in the two cohorts rather than focus on the relationship between observed variables. Great care was taken to measure the latent constructs in as similar a way as possible in the two cohorts. As with all research using the cohort studies, this work is constrained by data collected up to 40 years ago in light of research practice prevalent at that time. It may be that missing data at the individual level and at the variable level has affected the validity of the results. Response bias at the individual level would tend to underestimate the magnitude of the effects of social disadvantage on individual resources since sample attrition is greatest among individuals in more deprived circumstances. The results may thus provide a conservative estimate of social inequalities experienced. Missing data at the variable level may also be nonrandom. The FIML approach has been adopted as a “best effort” technique for dealing with these problems, but bias in the model estimates may still be present. Nonetheless, the data offers a unique opportunity to investigate the processes linking socioeconomic factors, educational attainment, teenage aspirations and adult occupational attainment in two cohorts growing up in a changing sociohistorical context. In summary, it can be said that the mediating model enabled us to appreciate the strong direct impact of parental social class on educational attainment and teenage aspirations, which is then mediated by these two variables onto adult occupational attainment. The processes by which parental social class affects educational
TEENAGE ASPIRATIONS
281
attainment and teenage aspirations, and consequently adult occupational attainment, could then be unpacked in the contextual systems model, which provides an elaboration rather than an invalidation of the mediating model. Both models analyze the impact of structural forces influencing the formation and realization of teenage aspirations in a changing social context and demonstrate the predictive power of both teenage aspirations and educational attainment for later occupational status. The contextual systems approach was adopted to gain a better understanding of the processes linking social background to individual development. According to this approach the developing individual is embedded in an interconnected set of contexts, which either have a direct or indirect impact. The results suggest that the formulation and realization of teenage aspirations involves negotiations with oneself, with others, and with the wider sociohistorical context. No one level of analysis in isolation can be considered the prime cause. Generally, the findings demonstrate the usefulness of the developmental-contextual model of vocational development (Vondracek, Lerner, & Schulenberg, 1986) as a bridge for integrating diverse constructs. Career development is influenced by both individual and contextual factors, including the overall sociohistorical context that dictates opportunities and possibilities. The course of development is not static, but is dependent on one’s location in historical time, and there is a clear link between macrolevel societal changes and individual development. The environment exerts its influence both directly via the family environment that contains the developing person, as well as indirectly, without containing the developing person, as reflected in the impact of sociohistorical changes in shaping occupational progression. One of the most powerful and consistent predictors of educational attainment, occupational and educational aspirations, as well as adult occupational attainment is the socioeconomic family background. By adopting a contextual systems approach, it became possible to identify the intervening structures or processes through which the context affects the course of individual development. The influence of parental social class is largely mediated via the material condition available to the young person. The model could discern differences in interpersonal relations and resources within the family environment that covary with social class. Variations by gender, region, or other microsystems, such as the school environment or peer group, that are not included here deserve attention in future analyses. APPENDIX A: ASPIRATION QUESTIONS AT AGE 16 Cohort Member Aspirations Educational Aspirations (NCDS) A.1. At what age do you think you are most likely to leave school? 16 17 18 or over Uncertain
282
SCHOON AND PARSONS
A.2. You will probably know that this is the first year that everybody has had to stay at school until they are 16. In your own case do you wish that you could have left when you were 15? Yes No Uncertain A.3. After you leave school would you like to: Continue with full-time study Do a job that involves part-time study Do a job that requires no further study Don’t know
Educational Aspirations (BCS70) A.4. What do you think you will be doing from September 1986? Tick one box Leaving full-time education and doing something else Doing GCE A’Level course Doing O’Level or CSE course Doing/continuing other educational course/training at school or college Something else. . . [what?]
Occupational Aspirations (NCDS) A.5. What would you like to be your first full-time job? Please give as many details as possible What do you think is in fact likely to be your first full-time job? Please give as many details as possible
Occupational Aspirations (BCS70) A.6. Nearly everyone of your age has some sort of idea of what they will want to do in life. Here is a list of the types of jobs/careers/professions for which various amounts of training are necessary. How about your choice(s)? In Column A please tick one box to indicate your first choice for type of career and in Column B please tick boxes to indicate the other types of jobs you feel you might do, if any
Professional (needing a degree) Managerial/Nursing/Teaching Trained Clerical (e.g., bank clerk) Administrative—office work Worker on farm/agriculture/fishing industry Craftsman/designer—making or designing small individual objects Maintenance worker—repairs and service Processing worker—computing, information technology
A
B
283
TEENAGE ASPIRATIONS
Food industry/restaurant worker Salesman/representative/shop worker Health worker Transport worker Worker in manufacturing/assembling products or goods Service work—cleaning/dishwashing HM Forces Job not included above . . . [what?] Can’t decide
A
B
Parental Aspirations (NCDS) A.7. Remind the parent that the study child’s year group is the first in which all children have had to study at school until the age of sixteen. In the study child’s case do they wish that he/she had been able to leave at fifteen? Yes No Don’t know/Can’t say A.8. Which of the following would the parents like the study child to do? Leave at minimum school leaving age (i.e. end of this school year) Stay in full-time education beyond minimum school leaving age, but not beyond 18 Continue some form of full-time education beyond the age of 18 Uncertain A.9. Which of the following do the parents think the study child is in fact likely to do? Leave at minimum school leaving age (i.e. end of this school year) Stay in full-time education beyond minimum school leaving age, but not beyond 18 Continue some form of full-time education beyond the age of 18 Uncertain
Parental Aspirations (BCS70) A.10. Which of the following would you like your teenager to do (A), and what do you think he/she will actually do, after this school year (B)? Tick all that apply under A and then under B
Leave at the end of this term Stay in full-time education and do vocational training Stay in full-time education and do A’Levels etc Continue some form of full-time education beyond age of 18 Other. . .[what?] Don’t know
A
B
1. Father’s social class 2. Mother’s social class 3. Housing tenure 4. Overcrowding 5. Benefits 6. Parental aspirations (hopes) 7. Parental aspirations (expt) 8. Exam score 9. Highest qualifications 10. Job aspirations 11. Educational aspirations 12. Goldthorpe 13. RGSC SD
1.00 0.28 0.35 0.28 0.16 0.32 0.35 0.30 0.26 0.20 0.32 0.21 0.06 1.26
V1
1.00 0.22 0.18 0.10 0.20 0.23 0.19 0.17 0.13 0.21 0.14 0.04 1.45
V2
1.00 0.32 0.18 0.25 0.28 0.30 0.26 0.18 0.28 0.18 0.05 0.50
V3
1.00 0.14 0.20 0.22 0.24 0.21 0.14 0.23 0.15 0.04 0.41
V4
1.00 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.12 0.08 0.13 0.08 0.02 0.41
V5
1.00 0.77 0.38 0.34 0.36 0.58 0.30 0.09 0.85
V6
1.00 0.42 0.37 0.40 0.64 0.33 0.09 0.85
V7
1.00 0.79 0.31 0.50 0.37 0.14 18.12
V8
1.00 0.28 0.44 0.27 0.08 0.83
V9
1.00 0.48 0.23 0.07 0.42
V10
1.00 0.37 0.11 1.27
V11
1.00 0.21 21.99
V12
1.00 1.32
V13
TABLE B1 Correlations between the Observed Variables and the Standard Deviation (SD) of the Observed Variables in the 1958 National Child Development Data Set
APPENDIX B: CORRELATIONS BETWEEN OBSERVED VARIABLES
284 SCHOON AND PARSONS
1. Father’s social class 2. Mother’s social class 3. Housing tenure 4. Overcrowding 5. Benefits 6. Parental aspirations (hopes) 7. Parental aspirations (expt) 8. Exam score 9. Highest qualifications 10. Job aspirations 11. Educational aspirations 12. Goldthorpe 13. RGSC SD
1.00 0.31 0.26 0.19 0.17 0.19 0.24 0.30 0.21 0.16 0.28 0.19 0.21 1.26
V1
1.00 0.20 0.15 0.13 0.15 0.19 0.23 0.16 0.13 0.22 0.14 0.16 1.30
V2
1.00 0.19 0.31 0.13 0.16 0.22 0.16 0.12 0.21 0.13 0.15 0.42
V3
1.00 0.11 0.10 0.12 0.17 0.12 0.09 0.16 0.10 0.11 0.28
V4
1.00 0.08 0.10 0.15 0.10 0.08 0.14 0.09 0.10 0.42
V5
1.00 0.69 0.29 0.20 0.26 0.44 0.19 0.21 0.71
V6
1.00 0.36 0.26 0.32 0.56 0.23 0.26 0.76
V7
1.00 0.56 0.31 0.55 0.31 0.34 16.23
V8
1.00 0.22 0.38 0.22 0.24 0.66
V9
1.00 0.42 0.18 0.20 0.46
V10
1.00 0.31 0.34 0.85
V11
1.00 0.78 15.65
V12
TABLE B2 Correlations between the Observed Variables and the Standard Deviation (SD) of the Observed Variables in the 1970 British Birth Cohort Data Set
1.00 1.20
V13 TEENAGE ASPIRATIONS
285
286
SCHOON AND PARSONS
REFERENCES Arbuckle, J. C. (1999). Amos for Windows: Analysis of moment structures, Version 4.01. SmallWaters Corp., Chicago. Arbuckle, J. L. (1996). Full information estimation in the presence of incomplete data. In G. A. Marcoulides & R. E. Schumacker (Eds.), Advanced Structural Equation Modeling techniques. Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum. Banks, M., Bates, I., Breakwell, G., Bynner, J., Emler, N., Jamieson, L., & Roberts, K. (1992). Careers and identities. Milton Keynes: Open University Press. Bentler, P. M. (1990). Comparative fit indices in structural models. Psychological Bulletin, 107, 238– 246. Blau, P. M., & Duncan, O. D. (1967). The American Occupational Structure. New York: Wiley. Bollen, K. A. (1989). Structural equations with latent variables. New York: Wiley. Bourdieu, P. (1988). Homo academicus. Cambridge, MA: Polity Press. Bronfenbrenner, U. (1979). The ecology of human development: experiments by nature and design. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Univ. Press. Butler, N., Despotidou, S., & Shepherd, P. (1997). 1970 British Cohort Study (BCS70) ten-year followup: A guide to the BCS70 10-year data available at the Economic and Social Research Unit Data Archive. London: Social Statistics Research Unit, City University. Bynner, J. (1998). Education and family components of identity in the transition from school to work. International Journal of Behavioral Development, 22, 29–53. Bynner, J., Elias, P., McKnight, A., & Pan, H. (1999). The changing nature of the youth labour market in Great Britain. Rowntree Foundation. Report. Bynner, J., Ferri, E., & Shepherd, P. (Eds.). (1997). Twenty something in Great Britain: Getting on, getting by, getting nowhere. Gower, UK: Ashgate. Bynner, J., Joshi, H., & Tsatsas, M. (2000). Obstacles and opportunities on the route to adulthood. London: The Smith Institute. Cohen, J. (1992). A power primer. Psychological Bulletin, 112(1), 155–159. Cook, T. D., Church, M. B., Ajanaku, S., Shadish, W. R., Jr., Kim, J. R., & Cohen, R. (1996). The development of occupational aspirations and expectations among inner-city boys. Child Development, 67, 3368–3385. Davie, R., Butler, H., & Goldstein, H. (1972). From birth to seven: The second report of the National Child Development Study (1958 cohort). London: Longman. Dolliver, R. H. (1969). Strong Vocational Interest Blank versus expressed vocational interests: A review. Psychological Bulletin, 72, 95–107. Elder, G. H., Jr. (1999). Children of the Great Depression: Social change in life experience (25th anniversary ed.). Boulder, CO: Westview Press. Erikson, R., & Goldthorpe, J. H. (1993). The constant flux: A study of class mobility in industrial societies. Oxford, UK: Clarendon Press. Erikson, R., & Jonsson, J. O. (1996). Explaining class inequality in education: The Swedish Test Case. In R. Erikson & J. O. Jonsson (Eds.), Can education be equalised? The Swedish Case in compartive perspective, (pp. 1–63). Oxford, UK: Westview Press. Evans, K., & Furlong, A. (1997). Metaphors of youth transitions: Niches, pathways, trajectories or navigations. In J. Bynner, L. Chisholm, & A. Furlong (Eds.), Youth, citizenship and social change in a European context, (pp. 17–41). Aldershot, UK: Ashgate. Fogelman, K. (Ed.). (1983). Growing up in Great Britain: Papers from the National Child Development Study. London: Macmillan for the National Children’s Bureau. Fogelman, K. (Ed.). (1976). Britain’s sixteen-year-olds. London: National Children’s Bureau. Ginzberg, E., Ginsberg, S. W., Axelrod, S., & Herma, J. L. (1951). Occupational choice: An approach to a general theory. New York: Columbia Univ. Press. Gottfredson, L. S. (1981). Circumscription and compromise: A developmental theory of occupational aspirations. Journal of Counceling Psychology, 28, 545–579. Holland, J. L. (1985). Making vocational choices (2nd ed.). Englewoods Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.
TEENAGE ASPIRATIONS
287
Holland, J. L., & Gottfredson, G. D. (1976). Using a typology of persons and environments to explain careers: Some extensions and clarifications. The Counseling Psychologist, 6, 20–28. Holland, J. L., & Gottfredson, G. D. (1992). Studies of the hexagonal model: An evaluation (or, The perils of stalking the perfect hexagon). Journal of Vocational Behavior, 40, 158–170. Holland, J. L., Gottfredson, G. D., & Baker, H. G. (1990). Validity of vocational aspirations and interest inventories: Extended, replicated, and reinterpreted. Journal of Counseling Psychology, 37, 337–342. Keller, S., & Zavalloni, M. (1964). Ambition and social class: A respecification. Social Forces, 43, 58–70. Leete, R., & Fox, J. (1977). Registrar General’s social classes: Origins and users. Population Trends, 8, 1–7. Marsh, C. (1986). Social class and occupation. In R. Burgess (Ed.), Key variables in social investigation. London: Routledge. McLaughlin, D. H., & Tiedeman, D. V. (1974). Eleven-year career stability and change as reflected in the Project Talent data through the Flanagan, Holland, and Roe Occupational Classification Systems. Journal of Vocational Behavior, 5, 177–196. Nurmi, J.-E. (1991). How do adolescents see their future?: A review of the development of future orientation and planning. Developmental Review, 11, 1–59. Oden, M. (1968). The fulfillment of promise: 40-year follow-up of the Terman gifted group. Genetic Psychology Monographs, 77, 3–93. OPCS (Office of Population Censuses and Surveys). (1980). Classification of occupations. London: H.M. Stationery Office. OPCS (Office of Population Censuses and Surveys) and Employment Department Group. (1990). Standard classification of occupations (SOC). London: H.M. Stationery Office. Phipps, B. J. (1995). Career dreams of preadolescent students. Journal of Career Development, 22, 19–32. Roberts, K. (1980). Schools, parents and social class. In M. Craft et al. (Eds.), Linking home and school, (3rd ed., pp. 41–55). London: Harper & Row. Roberts, K. (1981). The sociology of work entry and occupational choice. in A. G. Watts, D. E. Super, & J. M. Kidd (Eds.), Career development in Britain, (pp. 279–299). Cambridge: CRAC/Hobsons. Rosen, B. C. (1956). The achievement syndrome: A psychocultural dimension of social stratification. American Sociological Review, 21, 203–211. Schulenberg, J., Vondracek, F. W., & Crouter, A. C. (1984). The influence of the family on voctional development. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 10, 129–143. Sewell, W. H., Haller, A. O., & Ohlendorf, G. W. (1970). The educational and early occupational status attainment process: Replication and revision. American Sociological Review, 35, 1014–1027. Sewell, W. H., & Hauser, R. M. (1975). Education, occupation, & earnings: Achievement in the early career. New York: Academic Press. Sewell, W. H., & Shah, V. P. (1968). Social class, parental encouragement, and educational aspirations. American Journal of Sociology, 73, 559–572. Shavit, Y., & Blossfeld, H.-P. (1993). Persistent inequality. Boulder, CO: Westview Press. Shavit, Y., & M¨uller, W. (Eds.). (1998). From school to work: A comparative study of educational qualifications and occupational destinations. Oxford, UK: Oxford Univ. Press. Shepherd, P. (1993). Analysis of response bias. In E. Ferri, (Ed.), Life at 33: The fifth follow-up of the National Child Development Study, (pp. 184–188). London: National Children’s Bureau and City University. Shepherd, P. (1995). The National Child Development Study: An introduction, its origins and the methods of data collection. (Working Paper No. 1). London: SSRU, City University. Steiger, J. H. (1990). Structural model evaluation and modification: An internal estimation approach. Multivariate Behavioural Research, 25, 173–180. Super, D. E. (1951). Vocational adjustment: Implementing a self concept. Occupations, 30. Super, D. E. (1980). A life span, life space approach to career development. Journal of Vocational Behavior, 16, 282–298.
288
SCHOON AND PARSONS
Trice, A. D., & McClellan, N. (1993). Do children’s career aspirations predict adult occupations?: An answer from a secondary analysis of a longitudinal study. Psychological Reports, 72, 368–370. Vondraceck, F. W., Lerner, R. M., & Schulenberg, J. E. (1986). Career development: A life-span developmental approach. Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum. Vondracek, F. W., Silbereisen, R. K., Reitzle, M., & Wiesner, M. (1999). Vocational preferences of early adolescents: Their development in social context. Journal of Adolescent Research, 14, 267–288. Vondracek, F. (1998). Career development: A lifespan perspective. International Journal of Behavioral Development, 22, 1–6. Whitney, D. R. (1969). Predicting from expressed vocational choices: A review. Personnel and Guidance Journal, 48, 279–286. Zuckerman, H. (1977). Scientific elite. New York: Free Press. Received: October 1, 2001
