Terrestrial radiation and cancer mortality in Japan

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Sep 7, 2010 - Gamma-ray radiation rate at 1 m above ground: ... Natural radiation in Japan: 1.5 mSv/year. 0.4. 0.41. 0.2
Terrestrial radiation and cancer mortality in Japan Imanaka T. September 7, 2010

Terrestrial radionuclides

Geochemical map of Japan, AIST HP

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Natural radiation: terrestrial origin

Geochemical map of Japan, AIST HP Gamma-ray radiation rate at 1 m above ground: D(Gy/h)=5.4U(ppm)+2.7Th(ppm)+13.0K(%)

HASL-258(1972)

Example:Hiroshima U:2.4ppm、Th:14.3ppm、K:2.4% 13 Gy/h (U) + 39 Gy/h (Th) + 30 Gy/h (K) → 83 Gy/h

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Terrestrial -radiation in Japan

Minato, J Geography, 2006

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Natural radiation other than terrestrial

0.4

0.41

0.38

0.29

Terrestrial Cosmic Internal Radon

Natural radiation in Japan: 1.5 mSv/year 5

Cancer mortality in Japan: total cancer

Male

Female

6

National Cancer Center HP

Cancer mortality in Japan: leukemia

Male

Female

National Cancer Center HP

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Cancer mortality in Japan: lung, breast

Male lung

Female breast

National Cancer Center HP

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Relation between terrestrial- and cancer mortality

100

5

Deaths per 10 person-year

150

50

Male Female 0 20

40

60

80

Gamma-ray radiation rate, nGy/h

Total cancer 9

Relation between terrestrial- and cancer mortality Male Female

8

6

5

Deaths per 10 person-year

10

4

2

0 20

40

60

80

Gamma-ray radiation rate, nGy/h

Leukemia 10

Relation between terrestrial- and cancer mortality Male Female

8

Nagasaki Miyazaki Kagoshima Okinawa

6

Kumamoto Oita

5

Deaths per 10 person-year

10

Saga

Fukuoka

4

2

0 20

40

60

80

Gamma-ray radiation rate, nGy/h

Leukemia Closed circles are prefectures in Kyushu island and Okinawa. 11

Relation between terrestrial- and cancer mortality

5

Deaths per 10 person-year

40

Male lung Female breast 30

20

10

0 20

40

60

80

Gamma-ray radiation rate, nGy/h

Male lung cancer and female breast cancer

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Natural and medical radiation in Japan Natural radiation Medical 2.25

Natural 1.48

0.38

Terrestrial

0.29

Cosmic

0.41

0.4

Internal Radon

mSv/year Data by Radiation Effects Foundation 13

Summary • Preliminary analysis by Imanaka failed to indicate a relationship between terrestrial radiation and cancer mortality in Japan. • Considering the natural radiation of 1.5 mSv/yr for 130 million population and the cancer risk factor of 0.05 /Sv, about 10,000 cancer deaths are expected annually due to natural radiation, which corresponds to 3 % of total cancer deaths in Japan. • If the real risk factor is 10 times larger than the above, 30 % will be due to natural radiation. • The study by Tondel is interesting and worthy to be challenged. 14