ISSN 00406015, Thermal Engineering, 2014, Vol. 61, No. 6, pp. 389–398. © Pleiades Publishing, Inc., 2014. Original Russian Text © V.E. Fortov, O.S. Popel’, 2014, published in Teploenergetika.
ENERGY SAVING, NEW, AND RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES
The Current Status of the Development of Renewable Energy Sources Worldwide and in Russia V. E. Fortov and O. S. Popel’ Joint Institute for High Temperatures, Russian Academy of Sciences, Izhorskaya ul. 13/19, Moscow, 125412 Russia email:
[email protected] Abstract—Resorting to renewable energy sources (RESs) as one of the bases of the promising world energy industry has become a logical result of the historical development and the recognition that is necessary to diversify primary energy sources being used, with the aim of enhancing both energy and ecological security of countries, regions, and concrete energy consumers. The review of the development of new technologies used for conversion of RESs, the progress of which can be characterized by the fact that by the year 2013 the total generating capacity of RESbased power plants now in operation has amounted to 500 GW—by a factor of 1.5 more than the total generating capacity of all nuclear power stations in the world. The paper presents an analysis of the current status of RESs and problems that restrain their development in Russia. It is noted that the peculiarities of the energy situation in Russia impose the specific requirements upon drawing up the programs of the development of RESs. Along with the use of RESs as part of systems of centralized energy supply, which is a priority for most industrially developed countries and promises the most largescale intro duction of RESs in Russia, it is necessary, first of all, to give attention to the development and creation of sys tems for independent supply of consumers with power and heat and the development of distributed power generating systems using RESs. Keywords: renewable energy sources, distributed power systems, the power industry of Russia DOI: 10.1134/S0040601514060020
Natural renewable energy sources (RESs): biomass (firewood, bushwood), wind, solar radiation, flowing water, along with the muscle power of man and ani mals, were the main energy sources used by man in the subsistence economy at the early stages of the develop ment of civilization. However, technologies and asso ciated devices used for their practical implementation (fireplaces, mills, dryers, etc.) at that time were prim itive, and they made it possible to produce heat and mechanical energy only in small amounts.
The energy crisis in the 1970s gave impetus to revi sion of energy strategies in many countries. It has become clear that oil cannot serve as a reliable long term basis for the development of the global power industry, and it is necessary to diversify primary energy sources being used. The active development of the nuclear power industry, which began worldwide, slowed down sharply in view of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster (1986) and other severe accidents at nuclear power stations.
The industrial revolution that began in the middle of the 19th century and has been marked by transition from manual labor to mechanized one, was based mainly on the burning of coal and wood biomass, the shares of which in the structure of the world consump tion of energy sources in the early 20th century, were around 60 and 40%, respectively [1].
Along with energyrelated problems, in the world, there began to grow the concern about the level of man’s environmental impact. In 1992, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [2] was adopted, which recognized the existence of this problem that, to a large extent, has been the result of human activities. In many countries active research and development efforts began aimed at finding new, environmentally more friendly energy sources and technologies of their conversion, to which, above all, belong natural RESs.
The development of the technology of oil and nat ural gas extraction in the 20th century began to result in gradual reduction in the contribution of biomass and coal to the global energy balance, and by the early 1970s oil became the main energy source used by mankind. At that time its share in the energy balance attained a historical maximum—about 47%. As this took place, the relative share of coal decreased to 25%, and that of biomass, to 12%. The rest of the energy bal ance (around 16%) became to be covered due to the everincreasing use of natural gas.
It should be noted that the greatest interest in RESs that was accompanied by an increase in financing of research and development efforts in this field both from state budgets and by private companies, includ ing powergenerating ones, has been displayed by countries that depend heavily on imports of traditional energy sources (European Union countries, the USA,
389
390
FORTOV, POPEL’ (b)
100 1
75 50 25
2
0 1980
2010 1995 Years
2025
(c) 50
85
Cost of electric power, cent/(kW h)
Cost of electric power, cent/(kW h)
Cost of electric power, cent/(kW h)
(a) 125
68 51
1
34 17
2
0 1980
2010
1995
2025
40 30
1
20 10 0 1980
2 2010
1995
Years
2025
Years
Fig. 1. Trends in the change of the cost of electric power generated from solar PV systems (a), solar thermal power plants (b), and wind power plants (c) [3]. Values: (1) maximum; (2) minimum.
Japan, later—China and others.) In relatively short time, by the early 21st century, considerable advances have been made in the field of radical enhancement of energy and technicalandeconomic performance of various technologies of RES conversion into forms of energy useful for man—heat, electricity, cooling, and new types of stove and motor fuels. Many technologies of energyrelated use of RESs arrive near the threshold of being competitive with traditional technologies based on conventional fossil fuels, and in some regions, this threshold has already been crossed. Due to the intense development and introduction of indus trial technologies it became possible to reduce many times the cost of energy and biofuels generated by means of wind power plants, photoelectric converters, solar, thermal, and bioenergy plants (Fig. 1) [3]. This provides the basis for considering the use of RESs as one of the key trends in the development of the global power industry capable of promoting the solution of global energy and ecological problems caused by a continuous increase in population and steadily increasing energy consumption which, according to the forecast, by 2020 will be as great as from 18 to 1
20 billion toe annually [4].
THE GENERALIZED INDICATORS OF THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT OF RESS IN THE WORLD There exist two different methodological approaches to determine, which energy sources are renewable and to account for such sources in energy balances. In the general case the term “renewable energy sources” is used with respect to those energy sources reserves of which are being replenished natu rally due to energy radiated by the sun and falling on the earth’s surface, and in the foreseeable future they are practically inexhaustible. This is, first and fore most, solar energy itself, as well as its derivatives: wind energy, energy of various types of biomass, growth of 1 Oil equivalent.
which is associated with the processes of photosynthe sis, energy of flowing water, sea waves, lowgrade heat from the environment, etc. RESs also include geo thermal heat, which comes to the earth’s surface from its bowels, the energy of ocean tides caused, above all, by gravitational interaction between the earth and moon, as well as some energy sources associated with human activities (organic waste of industrial and agri culture production, domestic waste, etc.). In principle any system that is not in equilibrium with the environ ment is an energy source, and in this connection the set of potential sources of renewable energy is very broad. With such a general approach, certainly, in the energy balance, consideration must be given to hydro power stations, which have long been in use and the total generating capacity of which worldwide is about 990 GW; these hydropower plants generate around 3700 TWh of electricity annually. In many countries, above all, in developing ones, traditional biomass is still widely used (firewood, bushwood) the share of which in the total global energy balance today is esti mated at about 9.3%. With due regard for these data, today RESs provide an essential part (around 19%) of energy consumed worldwide (Fig. 2) [5]. If we consider only generation of electric power as the most efficient secondary energy carrier, which determines the level of the technological development of countries [4], then also in this case the share of all forms of RESs in the global electric power generation is around 22%, of which hydropower accounts for about 17%, while other renewables, somewhat higher than 5% (Fig. 3) [5]. However, it should be emphasized that the hydro electric potential of large rivers in the world has already been harnessed by about onethird, with its unharnessed part being concentrated mainly in devel oping countries, and the further development of the large hydropower industry is limited, among other things, by the reasons of an ecological character, for example, by the probability of flooding vast areas. THERMAL ENGINEERING
Vol. 61
No. 6
2014
THE CURRENT STATUS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY Fossil fuels (78.2%)
391
Nuclear power (2.8%)
19%
Wind/solar/biomass/ geothermal power generation (nonhydro) (1.1%)
Traditional biomass (9.3%) Modern renewable (9.7%)
Biofuels (0.8%)
Biomass/solar/ Hydropower geothermal heat and hot water (3.7%) (4.1%) Fig. 2. Estimated renewable energy share of global final energy consumption, 2011 (data published by REN21) [5].
Consumption of traditional biomass in the world is being steadily reduced due to the changeover to more advanced technologies of heat supply and cooking. Today, the extension of the scale of the development of RESs is only associated with new technologies of using them. Hence, among the specialists the second approach prevails, with which only new technologies are assigned to RES, while large hydropower stations with the installed generating capacity higher than 25 MW and traditional biomass used for heat supply and cooking are excluded from consideration. While from the early 21st century the growth rates of the tra ditional power industry based on fossil fuels worldwide were only from 1.0 to 1.5% per year, the new technol ogies of RESs have been developing over the same time with an average rate of tens of percent per year (Fig. 4) [5]. Such a high rate of penetration of RESs into the highly inertial energy market, to which new technolo gies have for decades been paving their way for them selves, is an indication that renewable energy have become an increasingly active “player” and deserves close attention. The conclusion that new technologies of RES con version claim the serious roles in the future world energy industry is confirmed by a steady increase in investments in this sector of the power industry, which in 2011, were as large as 279 billion USD (Fig. 5) [4]. And, unlike investments in other sectors of the global economy, they have not been subjected to any appre ciable decrease as a result of the worldwide financial and economic crisis in 2008. As compared to the year 2011, in 2012 investments in RESs decreased some what, which is due to the fact that the unit cost of equipment (first and foremost, photovoltaic convert ers and wind turbines) has been considerably reduced during the one year (in 2012 the newly added installed generating capacity of RESbased plants was 85 GW, whereas in 2011, 80 GW). The countries that are leaders in investing in RESs are China, the USA, Germany, Italy, and India. In 2011 investments made in China amounted to 51 bil lion dollars, in the USA, 48 billion dollars, in Ger THERMAL ENGINEERING
Vol. 61
No. 6
2014
many, 31 billion dollars (the largest part of these investments was intended for the smallscale distrib uted RESbased power generating systems, mainly for rooftop solar PV systems), in Italy, 29 billion dollars, and in India, 12 billion dollars. The highest rates of investments in RESs in 2011 against the year 2010 were in Italy (248%), the USA (58%), Canada (47%), Belgium (40%), China (28%), and India and Brazil (25% each). The largest investments in 2012 were noted in solar energy—140 billion dollars, and in wind energy— more than 80 billion dollars. In solar energy these investments were directed, first and foremost, to the development of rooftop solar PV systems in Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom, as well as to construc tion of several solar thermal power stations in Spain and in the United States. The integrated indicators of the development of the renewable energy industry in the world for the period of 2010–2012 are given in Table 1 [5]. By the end of the year 2012 the total installed gen erating capacity of power plants using RESs amounted to 480 GW and exceeded by a factor of about 1.5 the total generating capacity of nuclear reactors opera tional in 32 countries of the world (350 GW). As of today, 138 countries have already set target indicators for the development of RESs for the period until 2020 and for a more longterm future. In most
Fossil fuels and nuclear power (78.3%)
Hydropower (16.5%)
Other RESs (nonhydro) (5.2%)
Fig. 3. Estimated renewable energy share of global electric ity production, end of 2012 (data published by REN21) [5].
392
FORTOV, POPEL’ Concentrating solar thermal power
61% 43% 42%
Solar PV
60% 19%
Wind power
25%
Hydro power
3.1% 3.3%
Geothermal power
2.6% 4%
Solar water heating (glazed)
14% 15%
Biodiesel production
1 2
0.4% 17%
Ethanol production
–1.3% 11% –10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Average annual growth rates, % Fig. 4. Average annual growth rates of renewable energy capacity and biofuels production, end of 2007–2012 (data published by REN21) [5]. (1) 2012; (2) end of 2007–2012 (fiveyear period).
cases, over the next 10 years it is planned to achieve the share of RESs in energy balances of these countries at the level from 10 to 30%. The most ambitious target indicators have been adopted in the European Union (Fig. 6) [5]. It should be emphasized again that in most leading countries the accelerated development of RESs is car ried out with a determining political, legislative, and direct financial support on the part of the state. The most widespread forms of promoting the development of RESs in the field of powergenerating plants are so called feedin tariffs (FITs) and renewable portfolio standards (RPSs). The essence of these incentive economic measures is as follows. FITs are specially established increased tariffs for electricity purchased from RESbased power plants that provide the profitability of electric power generation. They have been adopted in 65 countries and are differentiated by type and installed capacity of power plants, are approved for a long term (from 10 to 20 years), and, as a rule, they are gradually reduced year after year with due regard for the development of technologies. For example, in Germany, such tariffs were first introduced in 2000, and they are in force to the present day with minor adjustments made in 2010.
During this period, with due regard for the develop ment of equipment and making it less costly, these tar iffs have been reduced for solar PV systems by a factor of more than 2—to 17–18 eurocents/(kWh). Electricity from solar PV systems, despite the con siderable reduction in their cost over the last year, still remains the most expensive of electricity from RES based power plants. Therefore, FITs for electricity generated by other types of power plants are adopted at a lower level. It is interesting to note that tariffs adopted in Spain were somewhat too overcharged for their climatic conditions and resulted in a boom in con struction of solar power plants, and, instead of 400 MW expected by the year 2012, there were commissioned solar power plants with the total installed generating capacity of around 3 GW. As a result, in 2012 accep tance of new applications for FITs for solar power plants was temporarily suspended. FITs are still in force only in respect to those solar power plants, which either have been constructed or are already under con struction. Among our “nextdoor” neighbors, FITs for RESs were adopted in September 2008 in the Ukraine. The law guarantees unimpeded admission of electricity generated from small hydropower plants with the THERMAL ENGINEERING
Vol. 61
No. 6
2014
THE CURRENT STATUS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
According to data published by the Agency for Energy Efficiency and Energy Conservation of the Ukraine, as a result of introduction of measures for stimulating the installed generating capacity of power plants using RESs (not including large hydropower plants) in late 2012 exceeded 0.6 GW, although previ ously it was planned to achieve this target figure only in 2015. The annual electricity generation from such power plants was as high as 1.0 billion kWh in 2012 rather than in 2015, as was stipulated by the project of the energy strategy. It is anticipated that by 2020, Ukraine will be able to increase the share of electricity generated from RESs in the total electric power output to 12%, and by 2030, to 15%. Another mechanism for managing the develop ment of RESs, which received recognition and is used in 18 countries, as well as in several states of the USA, provinces of Canada, and states of India, are socalled RPSs, or quotas that should be approved by a govern ment and oblige powergenerating companies, groups of companies, or ultimate energy consumers to pro vide the prescribed share of RESs either in the installed generating capacity, or in the amount of elec tricity generation or consumption. For example, in Israel in 2011 there was adopted a law that ordered to place in service by the year 2014 standalone RESbased powergenerating systems with the total generating capacity of 110 MW, wind power plants (800 MW), large solar plants (460 MW), and electricity generating net work systems firing either biogas or waste (210 MW).
300 Investment, billion US dollars
capacity of up to 10 MW, wind, solar PV, geothermal power plants, as well as from plants firing biomass, to the electric grid. In October 2012, the following tariffs [eurocent/(kWh)] were adopted: for small hydropower plants—8, for solar PV systems—48, for biomassfir ing power plants—13, and wind power plants—12.
393 279
227
250
244 200
172 146
150
168 100
100 50
65 40
0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Years Fig. 5. Global new investment in renewable energy 2004– 2012, billion US dollars (data published by REN21) [5].
Usually this “administrative” mechanism for manag ing is combined with the market mechanism for trad ing “green certificates,” which provides raising funds needed for the implementation of projects. It should be noted that in some countries the accel erated development of RESs stimulated by means of one or the other method, not necessary obtains sup port on the part of both population and business. Political decisions made by governments often pro voke dissatisfaction of powergenerating companies that are forced to scale back power generation from more efficient conventional power stations, and some times even to fully close them, due to obligatory admission of “expensive” electric power generated from RESs into electric grids. Besides, with a consid erable share of RESs in the electric power generation mix (especially from wind and solar power plants the
Table 1. Selected indicators of the development of RESs worldwide in 2012–2012 [5] Indicator Investment in new renewable capacity (annual), billion USD Renewable power capacity (total, including hydro), GW Hydropower capacity (total), GW Renewable power capacity (without hydro), GW Capacity, GW: Solar PV capacity (total) Concentrating solar thermal power plants Wind power plants Solar hot water capacity (total)m GW th Electric power generation from bioenergy plants, GWh Production (annual), billion liters: Bioethanol Biodiesel Countries with policy targets THERMAL ENGINEERING
Vol. 61
No. 6
2014
2010
2011
2012
227 1250 935 315
279 1355 960 395
244 1470 990 480
40 1.1 198 195 313
71 1.6 238 223 335
100 2.5 283 255 350
85 18.5 109
84.2 22.4 118
83.1 22.5 138
394
FORTOV, POPEL’ Total (EU27)
13%
20%
Sweden
50% 45%
Austria Latvia
40% 38%
Finland Denmark
35%
Portugal
31%
Estonia
25%
Slovenia
25%
Romania
24%
France
23%
Lithuania
23%
Spain
20.8%
Greece
20%
Germany
18%
Italy
17%
Bulgaria
16%
Ireland
16%
Poland
15%
The United Kingdom
15%
Hungary
14.7%
The Netherlands
14%
Slovakia
14%
The Czech Republic
13.5%
Belgium
13%
Cyprus
13%
Luxembourg
1 2
11%
Malta
3
10% 0
5
10
15
20
25 30 35 The share of RES, %
40
45
50
55
Fig. 6. EU renewable shares of final energy, 2005 and 2011, with targets for 2020 (data published by REN21) [5]. (1) baseline 2005 (for reference); (2) existing in 2011; and (3) target for 2020.
efficiency of which depends on the variability of the wind parameters and solar radiation), there arise prob lems related to the provision of stable parameters of the quality of the grid electricity (voltage, frequency), which involve additional expenses. The implementa tion of programs of the development of RESs ulti mately results in increased electricity tariffs paid by end consumers, and this fact also can only provoke certain dissatisfaction.
For example, in Germany where the use of RESs is developing most intensively, according to calculated data provided by German transmission system opera tors [6], in the year 2012, an additional financial bur den in the amount of 14.1 billion euros was imposed on consumers, which resulted in an increase of the tar iff by 3.53 eurocents/(kWh). For a family consisting of three people, which consumes on the average, 3500 (kWh)/year of electricity, additional payments associated with the national program of the develop THERMAL ENGINEERING
Vol. 61
No. 6
2014
THE CURRENT STATUS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
ment of RESs, were around 124 euros per year, or around 10 euros per month. At the same time, many countries continue to give much attention to the development of RESs, and spend a considerable amount of money on them. As already noted, the leaders in the practical utilization of RESs are, first and foremost, European countries, China, India, and some other countries, which today heavily depend on traditional energy sources imported from other regions of the world. For these countries, the key motivation for developing RESs is the desire to enhance their energy security and reduce their depen dence on imports of energy sources for the future. The development of RESs is also due to the fact that many technologies of energy production from RESs demonstrate the feasibility for reducing many times the cost of electric power generation. Thus, the progress in the development of technologies of manu facturing solar PV systems resulted in the reduction of the cost of electricity generated from them, almost 100fold from 1980 until recently, while from wind power plants, 10–15 times (Fig. 1) The creation of industrial facilities, at which production costs are reduced as the industrial output increases, is also an important factor responsible for the development of RESs. A reason of no small importance for the active pub lic support of the development of RESs in many coun tries is their orientation towards the export of new technologies and equipment to other countries. This argument is considered as one of the key reasons for the public support of enterprises in China that has already captured the greater part of the world market for solar PV systems, in Germany, and in other coun tries. The practical implementation of RESs results also in creation of new jobs, the development of small and mediumsized businesses, and, by doing so, has a pos itive effect on socioeconomic conditions. In 2011, the total number of jobs in the renewable energy industry worldwide exceeded 5 million, including 1.1 million in European Union countries, 0.5 million in the USA, 1.6 million in China, and 0.9 million in Brazil. RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES IN RUSSIA Undoubtedly, Russia, on the whole, is better endowed with indigenous reserves of conventional fuelandenergy resources than any other country in the world. It is obvious, however, that reserves of rela tively lowcost crude oil and natural gas are not inex haustible. Besides, there are required ever increasing expenses for exploration and development of new deposits, and as early as today there are necessary stra tegic elaborations directed at the improvement of the fuelandenergy balance, the enhancement of the effi ciency of the use of energy sources, and diversification of primary energy sources, including prudent use of THERMAL ENGINEERING
Vol. 61
No. 6
2014
395
renewable energy sources and, as a consequence, directed at enhancement of the energy security of the country, its regions, and individual energy users. As already noted, the power industry is an essen tially inertial sector of the economy; therefore, tech nologies that might claim a prominent place in the power industry within 30–50 years, should be devel oped and approbated as early as today. It is necessary to stress that most regions of Russia are energydeficient, they need delivery of fuel and energy supply. For them the solution of the problem of the regional energy security is also topical, in just the same way as for countries importing energy sources. In our country, which is a gasproducing power, only about 50% of urban and around 35% of rural commu nities are supplied with natural gas. Here, we use coal and petroleum products—the sources of local pollu tion of the environment. Natural disasters, which have become more frequent, have demonstrated that in regions with centralized energy supply there is need for developing smallscale distributed power generation systems, which would solve the problem of enhancing the reliability of energy supply of consumers in small communities that today get electric power from trans mission lines and heat from local boiler houses. The situation in the field of energy supply that has arisen in our country is far from being an optimal one, and it is necessary to implement a variety of measures for enhancing energy security and reducing the expenses for energy supply. RESs can and should play a positive role in solving problems that have accumu lated. It is necessary to consider the accelerated develop ment of RESs in Russia as an important factor in mod ernizing the national economy, including moderniza tion associated with an expansion of innovative indus tries, the development of new innovative technologies, the development of small and medium businesses, the creation of new jobs, the improvement of social condi tions, the improvement of ecology, etc. Promotion of RESs should be closely coordinated with the imple mentation of measures for energy conservation. In Russia the target indicators of the development of RESs have been for the first time set at the state level by the Federal Government Decree No. 1p dated January 8, 2009, Basic Directions of State Policy for Improving Energy of Electric Power from Renewable Energy Sources for the Period until 2020. However, the indicators for the years that have passed since that time were not attained. According to the State Pro gram “The Energy Efficiency and the Development of the Power Industry” [7], 6.2 GW of generating capac ity based on RESs should be commissioned by 2020, which would make it possible to increase the share of RESs in the energy balance of the country up to merely 2.5%. In this case it is expected that it would be possible to provide the share of RESs in the energy bal ance of Russia at the level of 4.5% envisaged by the
396
FORTOV, POPEL’ (а)
Installed generating capacity, MW
1000 1000
1 2 3
800
750
750
600 500
400 250
200 0
100 18
250
140
120 26
270
270
270
124
141
159
159
2017 2018 Years (b)
2019
2020
200 124
2014 2015
250
2016
SHPPs 13%
SPPs 26% WPPs 61%
Fig. 7. The installed capacity of renewable energy industry facilities for the competitive selection (a) and structure of generating capacities of RESbased power installations planned for commissioning in 2020 (b). WPPs are wind power plants, SPPs are solar power plants, and SHPPs are small hydro power plants.
abovementioned Federal Government Decree, as a result of the development of RESs in regions with decentralized and standalone power generation sys tems. The Federal Government Decree No. 449 adopted on May 28, 2013 [8] envisaging the financial support for the development of RESs shows certain promise that RESs will be more widely used in various sectors of the Russian economy. This decree only holds true for electric power generating facilities of the renewable energy industry: wind and solar plants, as well as small hydropower plants with the capacity from 5 to 25 MW,
connected to the electric grid. The stimulating mech anism is based on recovery of expenses associated with power supply contracts on the wholesale electricity (capacity) market. In this case the amount and the mix of annually added generating capacity by type of RES, as well as price parameters of power supply contracts (“price formula”) are determined by the government proceeding from the guaranteed recovery of invest ment principle for 15 years. Standard levels of capital and operating costs are introduced, which makes it possible to control the level of total expenses for sup porting power generation from RESs and to restrain an increase in tariffs. The selection of projects corre sponding to power supply contracts will be carried out in accordance with the results of a competitive proce dure criteria of which take into account declared unit capital and operating costs, as well as indicators of a project related to the localization of production (the use of homemade equipment). The latter is intended to stimulate the development of domestic production of equipment used in the renewable energy industry. The installed generating capacity of renewable energy industry facilities, which should be selected on the competitive basis (as for the year of beginning of delivery), is shown in Fig. 7 together with the diagram, which illustrates the anticipated shares of newly added wind and solar power plants, as well as small hydro power plants, by the year 2020. The anticipated total generating capacity of all RESbased power plants by the year 2020 is around 6 GW (Fig. 7b). The first competitive selection of projects was carried out in July–August 2013. It is significant that in the case of successful imple mentation of decisions made by the Federal Govern ment, in Russia there should be laid the foundation for domestic industrial production of many components of equipment in accordance with the established indi cators of the degree of localization by type of renew able energy industry facilities for the years 2014–2017 (Table 2). According to the results of the competition held in 2013, the total amount of bids for construction of solar power generation facilities, for each year of the begin ning of supply of the generating capacity during the periods of selection of the latter (from 2014 to 2017), considerably exceeded the amount of generating capacity that can be selected. Bids for construction of small hydropower plants were not submitted, the com missioning of the first wind power plant in accordance with the bid for selection might take place in 2016. In this case the selected total installed generating capac ity of power plants will be noticeably smaller than the capacity envisaged by the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation. Due to the excess of primary bids related to solar power generating facilities, there was carried out the competitive selection of adjusted bids with lowered capital costs. The approved projects involve construc THERMAL ENGINEERING
Vol. 61
No. 6
2014
THE CURRENT STATUS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
tion of nine solar PV systems in the Stavropol’ krai, Lipetsk, Astrakhan, Volgograd, Orenburg oblasts, in the Republics of Bashkortostan, Kalmykiya, Kha kassiya, and the Altai Republic, with the unit generat ing capacity from 5 to 90 MW and the anticipated total installed generating capacity of around 400 MW. Seven projects, with the total installed generating capacity of 105 MW, became the winners in the compe tition for construction of wind power plants (Table 3). All these plants have the installed generating capacity of 15 MW each, and they are slated for construction in European Russia: two in the Astrakhan and Orenburg oblasts each, three—in the Ulyanovsk oblast. It should be emphasized that the competitive selec tion of investment projects on wind power plants envisaged the commissioning of 1100 MW of the installed generating capacity before the end of 2017. For construction of wind power plants in the year 2014 there were submitted two unguaranteed bids that have been rejected with good reason. For the year 2016 there has been accepted the only bid for constructing 15 MW of 250 MW planned for commissioning for that year (Fig. 7). For the year 2017 there were accepted bids for constructing 90 MW instead of the planned 500 MW. As a result, of the total amount of generating capacities submitted for the competition, less than 10% were selected. The main reasons for the low level of participation in the competition, in the opinion of representatives of wind power companies, were the difficulty in meeting the conditions of the competition related to the local ization of equipment production and the lack of any other possibility to obtain a bid guarantee, except from powergenerating companies, which are participants of the wholesale electricity (capacity) market. In this case there were no criteria for the degree of readiness of projects for being implemented within the declared time. The peculiarities of the energyrelated situation in Russia impose specific requirements for drawing up programs of the development of RESs. Along with the development of the use of RESs as part of systems for centralized power supply, which is a priority for devel oped countries mentioned above, and promises the most large scale development of renewables in Russia, it is necessary, first of all, to give attention to the devel opment and creation of systems for independent sup ply of consumers with power and heat, the develop ment of the smallsized distributed power generating systems. It is in this sphere that RESbased power plants as early as today, in many regions of the country, turn out to be competitive, and they might provide a positive economic, social, and environmental effect. In this field it is also necessary to pursue a stimulating state policy the formation of which in Russia is still at the infant stage. It is obvious that the development of independent and distributed power generating system using RESs in many respects will be determined by the THERMAL ENGINEERING
Vol. 61
No. 6
2014
397
Table 2. The degree of localization, %, by type of RES based facilities for 2014–2017 Power plants Wind Solar Small hydro
2014
2015
2016
2017
35 50 20
55 50 20
65 70 45
65 70 45
Table 3. The list of selected projects of wind power plants with the installed generating capacity of 15 MW each Wind power plant
Location of a facility
“Aksarayskaya” Astrakhan’ oblast “Funtovo” “Aeroport” Orenburg oblast “Novosergievskaya” “Karsun” “Isheevka” Ulyanovsk oblast “Novaya Mayna”
Planned year of commissioning 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017
initiative of regional and local authorities, as well as private businesses. Of great importance is also the will ingness of scientific and design institutions to suggest efficient engineering solutions on the practical use of RESs in various sectors of the economy. The REENFOR2013 Forum held in Moscow showed that in Russia the positive change in the devel opment of RESs took place, but in its way there are still quite a lot of obstacles. The main thing is that for the present in Russia there is no clear political vision of the role and the place of RESs in the power industry of the future. State support, without which it would be extremely difficult to develop new technologies, espe cially in the highly inertial and greatly monopolized power industry, is not as of yet regulated by explicit and concisely worded normative documents. Psychologi cal, information, and bureaucratic barriers also exist. There are as of yet no favorable conditions for devel opment of the small and medium businesses in the sphere of the renewable energy industry. In many directions it is still necessary to be orientated towards the use of foreign technologies and equipment. There are also problems caused by the lack of highly qualified specialists in the regions. At the same time, however, it is indisputable that the situation in Russia is gradually being changed for the best, and it is possible to hope that soon solar, wind, and other plants using RESs will no longer be a “wonder” for people who live in the most remote regions of the country. It is possible to be familiarized in more details with presentations and materials of the REENFOR2013 forum on its website [9].
398
FORTOV, POPEL’
REFERENCES 1. V. E. Fortov and A. A. Makarov, “Directions of innova tive development of the power engineering in the world and Russia,” Usp. Fiz. Nauk 168 (11), 5–19 (2009). 2. Frame Convention of United Nations on the Variation in http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/ Climate, convru.pdf. 3. D. J. Arent, A. Wise, and R. Gelman, “The status and prospects of renewable energy for combating global warming,” Energy Economics 33 (4), 584 (2011). 4. V. E. Fortov and O. S. Popel’, Power Engineering in Modern World (Intellekt, Dolgoprudnyi, 2011) [in Russian]. 5. Renewables 2013. Global Status Report. Renewable Energy Policy Network for the 21st Century, www.ren21.net.
6. German Energy Blog 2012 EEG Surcharge Increases Slightly to 3.592 ct/kWh, http://www.germanenergy blog.de/?p=7526. 7. State Program of the Russian Federation “Energy Effi ciency and Development of Power Engineering,” http://minenergo.gov.ru/upload/iblock/afc/. 8. Decision “On the Mechanism of Stimulating the Use of Renewable Energy Sources at the Wholesale Market of Electrical Energy and Power,” May 28, 2013, no. 449, http://base.consultant.ru/cons/cgi/online.cgi?req=doc; base=LAW; n=146916. 9. First Int. Forum “Renewable Power Engineering: Ways of Increasing the Energy and Economic Efficiency” (REENFOR2013), www.reenfor.org/. Translated by M. Virovlyanskii
THERMAL ENGINEERING
Vol. 61
No. 6
2014
