The Energy Efficiency Transition Policies and Perspectives [PDF]

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Sources: CDIAC and IEA. 0. 5000 ... To do this we'll need a sustainable energy ... Five measures – shown in a “Bridge Scenario” – achieve a peak in emissions.
The Energy Efficiency Transition Policies and Perspectives Brian Motherway, Head, Energy Efficiency Division International Energy Agency

#EnergyEfficientWorld © OECD/IEA 2015

The global challenge: Climbing down the mountain #EnergyEfficientWorld

40000

“Getting to the top is optional.

35000

Mt CO2e

30000

Getting down is mandatory.”

25000 20000

Ed Viesturs

15000 10000 5000

2DS

0 1900

1925

1950

1975

2000

2025

2050

Sources: CDIAC and IEA © OECD/IEA 2016

To do this we’ll need a sustainable energy transition

Two transitions from 1850 to 1970

#EnergyEfficientWorld © OECD/IEA 2016

Then there was little change in fuel shares

#EnergyEfficientWorld Data from Smil (2010) and IEA (2015) © OECD/IEA 2016

Still big changes, huge growth in energy demand and energy services

 The sustainable energy transition is more

fundamentally about how we use energy #EnergyEfficientWorld

© OECD/IEA 2016

Energy efficiency savings greater than primary renewable electricity 600

Savings Coal

500

Other

EJ

400

Hydrogen

Oil

300

Commercial heat

200

Electricity 100 0 2012

Natural gas

Biomass and waste 2020

2030

2040

2050

Energy efficiency as first fuel provides opportunity to sustainably grow energy services #EnergyEfficientWorld

© OECD/IEA 2016

Efficiency is the keystone in the bridge #EnergyEfficientWorld

Gt CO2-eq

Global energy-related GHG emissions

Savings by measure, 2030

40 INDC Scenario

35

Fossil-fuel subsidy reform

Upstream methane reductions

Energy efficiency

10% 15%

Bridge Scenario

49%

30 Renewables investment

25

17% 9% Reducing inefficient coal

20 2000

2014

2020

2025

2030

Five measures – shown in a “Bridge Scenario” – achieve a peak in emissions around 2020, using only proven technologies & without harming economic growth

World Energy Outlook Climate Special Report 2015

© OECD/IEA 2016

Bridging strategy is flexible across regions #EnergyEfficientWorld GHG emissions reduction by measure in the Bridge Scenario, relative to the INDC Scenario, 2030 Russia 27%

European Union

China

United States

76% Middle East 44%

80%

9% India

Efficiency Inefficient coal plants Renewables Methane reductions Fossil-fuel subsidies

Latin America

Africa

Southeast Asia 34%

43%

32% 44%

Energy efficiency a core action to reduce GHGs and boost prosperity in all regions © OECD/IEA 2016

Exploiting the multiple benefits of EE #EnergyEfficientWorld

© OECD/IEA 2016

Getting to 2 degrees: Doubling the rate of energy intensity in emerging countries #EnergyEfficientWorld

Average annual change in energy intensity

0.5% 0.0% -0.5%

OECD

-1.0% -1.5%

-2.0% -2.5% -3.0%

Non-OECD -3.5% -4.0% -4.5%

1982-1991

1992-2001

2002-2011

2012-2020 (450 ppm) 2021-2030 (450 ppm) © OECD/IEA 2016

#EnergyEfficientWorld © OECD/IEA 2016

Key Themes for the Week  How do we improve the narrative and evidence base for energy efficiency?  What are the key data requirements to support energy efficiency performance?

 How do we analyse potentials, impacts and options?  How do we design new policies and measures?

 Who should we collaborate with?  How can IEA best support your energy efficiency goals?

#EnergyEfficientWorld © OECD/IEA 2016