Feb 14, 2011 - other work, particularly technical, being outsourced to a network of trusted consultants â becoming far
THE FUTURE FOR ARCHITECTS?
“IN 10 YEARS WE PROBABLY WILL NOT CALL OURSELVES AN ARCHITECTURE PRACTICE, IT WILL BE SOMETHING ELSE ENTIRELY.” ARCHITECT
GLOBAL POPULATION GROWTH 2000-2050
46% INFRASTRUCTURE CONSTRUCTION GROWTH
128%
EMERGING MARKETS
18%
DEVELOPED MARKETS
2010 - 2020
Small metropolitan boutique practice
70%
WILL LIVE IN URBAN AREAS BY 2050
SHARE OF GLOBAL CONSTRUCTION
Emerging markets
55%
45%
Developed markets
BY 2020
MORE PEOPLE, BIGGER CITIES, MORE CONSTRUCTION...
INTRODUCTION INTRODUCTION
2008 2008
REDUCTIONIN IN REDUCTION DEMANDFOR FOR DEMAND ARCHITECTS’ ARCHITECTS’ SERVICES SERVICES
THINKWE WENEED NEEDTOTO “I“ITHINK STOPBEING BEINGOVERLY OVERLY STOP POLITEAND ANDLEARN LEARN POLITE HOWTOTOBE BEBUSINESS BUSINESS HOW PEOPLE.” PEOPLE.” ARCHITECT ARCHITECT Medium sized design-led practice Medium sized design-led practice
“ARCHITECTSHAVE HAVESHED SHED “ARCHITECTS PROJECTMANAGEMENT, MANAGEMENT, PROJECT CONTRACTADMINISTRATION, ADMINISTRATION, CONTRACT ANDCOST, COST,AND ANDULTIMATELY ULTIMATELY AND THEYLOSE LOSEDESIGN DESIGN IFIFTHEY COORDINATIONTHEN THENYOU YOU COORDINATION HAVETOTOASK ASKWHAT WHATTHEY THEY HAVE ARETHERE THEREFOR…” FOR…” ARE PROJECTMANAGER MANAGER PROJECT Global consultancy Global consultancy
-40% -40% TODAY TODAY
“THEINVASION INVASIONOF OF “THE THEARCHITECT’S ARCHITECT’S THE ROLESHOULDN’T SHOULDN’TBE BE ROLE SEENAS ASAATHREAT THREAT SEEN BUTAS ASAANATURAL NATURAL BUT CHANGETHAT THATCAN CAN CHANGE BEEXPLOITEDEXPLOITED-WE WE BE MUSTFIND FINDOUR OUROWN OWN MUST NEWOPPORTUNITIES OPPORTUNITIES NEW ANDEDUCATION EDUCATION AND SHOULDSHIFT SHIFTTO TO SHOULD ACCOMMODATETHAT.” THAT.” ACCOMMODATE ARCHITECT ARCHITECT Large global practice Large global practice
50%
thisstudy studyBuilding BuildingFutures Futuressets setsout out InInthis explorethe thefuture futurerole roleofofarchitects, architects, totoexplore asking:who whowill willdesign designour ourbuildings buildingsinin asking: 2025;what whatroles roleswill willthose thosetrained trainedinin 2025; architecturebebedoing doingthen thenand andhow howwill will architecture architecturalpractice practicehave havechanged changedasas architectural result?Through Througha aseries seriesofofone-to-one one-to-one a aresult? interviewsand andround roundtable tablesessions sessionsthe the interviews studyaims aimstotoexamine examinethe thebreadth breadthofof study thosewho whoshape shapethe thebuilt builtenvironment: environment: those includingtraditional traditionalarchitects architectsand and including thoseworking workingininexpanded expandedfields fieldsofof those practice,asaswell wellasasclients, clients,consultants consultants practice, andcontractors. contractors.The Theresulting resulting and speculationsshould shouldbebeananopportunity opportunity speculations discussionand andinterrogationinterrogation-anan forfordiscussion explorationofofthe theimminent imminentchanges changes exploration likelytotoaffect affectthe theindustry industryover overthe the likely next1515years. years. next
“OURMAIN MAINTHREAT THREATISISNOT NOT “OUR BEINGPAID PAIDFOR FORTHE THEWORK WORK BEING WEDO DO- PARTICULARLY - PARTICULARLYTHE THE WE BRIEFMAKING MAKINGPART. PART.BUT BUT BRIEF WENEVER NEVERTURN TURNDOWN DOWN WE UNPAIDWORK WORKBECAUSE BECAUSEITIT UNPAID MIGHTLEAD LEADTOTOPAID PAIDWORK WORK MIGHT THEFUTURE.” FUTURE.” ININTHE ARCHITECT ARCHITECT Small metropolitan boutique practice Small metropolitan boutique practice
WHO WILL DESIGN OUR BUILT ENVIRONMENT IN 2025? “WE WILL NEVER OUTSOURCE AND WILL COMPETE WITH THOSE WHO DO BY DOING IT BETTER.” ARCHITECT Medium sized design-led practice
“DETAILED DESIGN IS INCREASINGLY COMING THROUGH THE SUPPLY CHAIN – AND THIS IS EXACTLY THE RIGHT PLACE FOR IT. WITH INCREASING COMPLEXITY OF BUILDING TECHNOLOGY YOU CANNOT EXPECT ARCHITECTS TO HAVE THAT ROLE.” ENGINEER
PARTS OF THE INDUSTRY THAT COULD REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE: 1) The Small Local General Practice Will be judged by its ability to produce a personal service, with one-stop-shop design at lower cost and faster than their competitors: the ‘plan-smiths’ and the contractors. 2) The International Star Architects Will be judged by their ability to produce eye popping, ‘wow-factor’ design and raise both funds and the profile of their client. 3) Specialist Niche Practices Will be judged by their ability to provide increasingly complex, niche services as part of a larger design team and process. 4) Traditional Regional Delivery Driven Practices Will be judged by their ability to provide cost effective, process driven services to lay clients who have little interest in design for its own sake.
Global firm
PARTS OF THE INDUSTRY WITH THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITIES FOR GROWTH IN THE NEXT 5-10 YEARS: 1) Practices in Emerging Economies Will be judged by their ability to produce reliable design at lower cost and faster than their western competitors. 2) Global Inter-Disciplinary Consultancies Will be judged by their ability to consistently complete projects at a range of scales, particularly large, at low cost, quickly and with an integrated service - and will also increasingly be judged on the quality of their design and their international credentials. 3) BOOT (Build-Own-Operate-Transfer) Designers Will be judged by their ability to generate, realise and manage mixed scale projects with little risk for the client organisation.
PARTS OF THE INDUSTRY UNDER THE GREATEST PRESSURE: 1) Medium Sized Design-Led Practices Will be under pressure from larger practices that have bolted on design talent and speak the commercial language of clients. 2) Small Metropolitan Boutique Practices Will be reliant on design aware clients who are looking to commission exciting and boundary pushing design, whilst broadening their skill set, working collaboratively and managing their client’s risk.
5) Design Houses/Creative Agencies Will be judged by their ability to move easily between disciplines, to solve problems creatively in any field and to gather a vibrant and mixed range of skills under one roof.
“BIG CLIENTS ARE MOVING TOWARDS USING ONE-STOP-SHOP GLOBAL SERVICE PROVIDERS – THE PROFESSION WILL HAVE TO KEEP IN LINE WITH THAT.” DEVELOPER
14%
PUBLIC SECTOR
42%
“THE UK HAS A FINITE MARKET – ANYONE WHO HAS LARGER SCALE ASPIRATIONS IS GOING TO HAVE TO LOOK OVERSEAS.” CLIENT ADVISOR Global consultancy
4) Subcontractors/Specialist Suppliers Will be judged by their ability to keep up to date with the latest developments in construction and I.T., and to increasingly take on more and more of the design process.
WORKLOAD OF UK PRACTICES
86% 58%
PRIVATE SECTOR
LARGE PRACTICES (>31 ARCHITECTS)
SMALL PRACTICES (
