interesting turf routes. Let's try to end the week on a ... going 9-furlongs on the lawn. The rails are at 10-feet, and
THE PICK 4 MATRIX By Frank R. Scatoni (follow on Twitter @ScatoniSureShot and also check out @OptixEQ) 4/15/18 NOTE: Because this analysis is posted in advance, always check my Twitter feed @ScatoniSureShot for real-time updates based on scratches and track conditions—as this analysis is written for surfaces that are fast and firm. Thanks! INTRO We close out the short race week with a decent $500K Guaranteed Late Pick 4, which features two interesting turf routes. Let’s try to end the week on a high note. (Reminder: we have another three-day race week next week as well, with racing to resume on Friday, April 20.) LEG 1 (R6): Today’s first leg is the first of two turf races, this one for $40K optional-claiming/N1X fillies and mares going 9-furlongs on the lawn. The rails are at 10-feet, and there doesn’t seem to be much speed in here. #1 PERSISTANCE (IRE) (10/1), the first Cassidy entrant, had no early speed in her U.S. debut, but she was sprinting down the hill, so perhaps she’ll be more tactical today. Her UK form isn’t anything special (with her only win coming at 12-furlongs on synth), but she figures to run much better today second off the bench. GRADE: B. #2 WAR MOCCASIN (6/1) makes the second start of her form cycle after prepping in a downhill event for this more logical spot, since her best work has come going long. Her come-home times put her in the mix, but do note that she’s had plenty of chances at the N1X level and hasn’t been able to get it done. In fact, she’s a bit of a nibbler no matter what the level. Maybe first-time Kent will be the difference. GRADE: B. #3 VASILIKA (2/1) has tactical speed and is too sharp to ignore, but note that this filly just raced on April 1, so will she be able to show up with another solid effort after a few solid performances in a short time? The Dorf thinks so—and this gal was a neck away from already clearing this hurdle, so she’s super-obvious in here. GRADE: A. #4 ACHIRA (5/2) also has tactical speed, but she’ll have to outkick Vasilika, who got the measure of her last time when these two squared off at this level. This gal set the pace that day, but she seems better with a target, so maybe Smith will be a tad more patient today. There’s still plenty of upside here for this lightly raced 4-year-old. GRADE: A. #5 DEMIGODDESS (30/1) is 1-for-47 and has struggled at this N1X condition. GRADE: X. #6 LYNNE’S LEGACY (6/1), the second Cassidy runner, has been stuck at this condition for a long time, and part of the reason for that is her running style: she’s a one-run closer who is always at the mercy of pace and trip. You can use her in your horizontals, but I have to think someone will get the jump on her yet again. GRADE: X. #7 QUINN MURPHY (12/1) has a nice closing kick, but it hasn’t been as effective at this N1X level, where she finished seventh in her only try against allowance foes. Her best work has come against claimers, so maybe look for her next time in a weaker race with more pace. GRADE: X.
#8 BATTLEGROUND STATE (4/1) looked sharp beating Cal-bred N1X foes last time, but she got a good set-up and trip after being primed and ready from prepping in a downhill race the start before. The waters get considerably deeper today, and note that win-rider Prat sticks with Vasilika. GRADE: X. LEG 2 (R7): Today’s second leg is a Cal-bred $50K maiden-claimer for fillies and mares going 5.5-furlongs on the main track. We’ve got several first-time starters in here, so we’ll see what we can sniff out based on limited data. #1 AWESOME ALLIED (30/1) debuts for low-profile connections off some modest works. She looks like she’ll need some racing. GRADE: X. #2 MAKENNA’S SONG (4/1) is a first-time starter for Mullins who has a few nice works interspersed throughout her tab, so she’s a bit interesting in here, especially since she attracts Prat and is out of a mare whose offspring have won 5 out of 30 starts (best BSF: 65). That said, Mullins’ main-man Baze sticks with another, and Mullins isn’t the greatest with his debutantes. GRADE: B. #3 CHAMPAGNE HONEY (5/2) has been knocking at the door, finishing second and third at this level. Her speed is an asset, and this is where Baze stays put, but do note that she was part of a slow pace last time yet weakened to finish third. Granted, that was at 6-furlongs, so maybe today’s cutback will help her cause. GRADE: B. #4 MARJORIE E (12/1) goes out for Gallagher, who is a very patient sort, although he is capable of popping every now and again with debut runners. The works are just okay, so maybe we should watch one, especially since this gal’s mare has produced better routers and turf/synth runners than dirt sprinters. GRADE: X. #5 GET YOURSELF HOME (3/1), the first Machowsky entrant, was part of a fast pace last time against Cal-bred MSWs, and she didn’t disgrace herself, finishing third. That was at 6.5-furlongs, so she should be fit and ready to go cutting back and dropping in class. Note that she was the favorite in her debut last November, so there’s always been some hint of ability here. Today is the day for her to show it, especially since she’s one of three 4-year-olds in here facing younger foes. GRADE: A. #6 SO EURO (3/1), the second Machowsky runner (and another 4-year-old), was 5/1 in her debut at this level, and she ran well, getting nosed out for the win. She chased a fast pace that day yet kept grinding away, setting herself up nicely for start number-two. Interestingly enough, Conner rode her that day, but he ends up on Machowsky’s other horse while bug-boy Ceballos gets the call here. GRADE: B. #7 LUCKY LULA (6/1) ran second at this level three back, but that was coming off a layoff, and she hasn’t been able to replicate that performance since. She’s taken some money at the windows in her last few starts, but she’s disappointed her backers. Maybe she can grind away for a small slice. GRADE: X. #8 CALI CHATTER (15/1) debuts for Keen who is capable with firsters, but the works here are on the slow side, and the pedigree is nothing to write home about. I’m fine watching one, especially since she’s a 4-year-old making her first career start. GRADE: X. LEG 3 (R8): Today’s third leg is a very challenging Cal-bred $16K optional-claiming/N1X contested at 5.5-furlongs on the main track. So many of these like to do their work on the front end, so I expect there to be a very contentious pace. Unfortunately, there aren’t too many tracking types in here to choose from!
#1 HARDCORE TROUBADOR (5/1) is probably the speed of the speed, since he’s been in the lead at the first or second call in almost all of his starts, including his last race, which came against quarterhorses. With a clean break from the rail, he can be dangerous, but there is plenty of heat to his outside to keep him honest. GRADE: B. #2 JAY MAKES US LAUGH (6/1) is another one who plies his trade on or near the lead, but he’s made a career out of beating up on weaker claimers so far, while his one try at this level saw him attend the pace and weaken, losing to one of today’s foes. He was just claimed for $16K by Stute, who has been having a very quiet year, while the guy he took him from, Eddie Truman, has been lighting it up. GRADE: C. #3 RED WINE AND DINE (50/1) is yet another one who has shown plenty of speed (even against quarter-horses), so he’ll be part of the early pace brigade. Unlike his foes to his inside, however, he seems more apt to give up the ghost early. GRADE: X. #4 TRICKONOMICS (12/1) pushed the pace last time at this level and weakened to finish fourth. I’m thinking a similar fate awaits with even more speed in this heat. GRADE: X. #5 EASTER MORN (4/1) was just pasted at this level last time despite going off as the 6/5 favorite—but maybe he bounced since it was his first try against winners. I hate the fact that he’s a 6year-old with only four starts under his belt, but he has the right running style for this race (he can relax and produce), and the presence of previous win-rider Prat is not insignificant. GRADE: A. #6 SOUTHERN WARLORD (8/1) is a 3-year-old who has been off since September of last year, after he ran fourth in the Barretts Juvenile at 38/1. He now returns a new gelding for a new barn, so we’ll see how he does today, but he’s another one who is balls-to-the-wall early, and considering he needed maiden-claimers to graduate, maybe we should watch one. GRADE: X. #7 UH OH BABY (20/1) broke his maiden in wire fashion last year at Los Al as a juvenile. He hasn’t been seen since that September race, and now he’ll have to return to the races in a heat filled with plenty of early pace. GRADE: X. #8 BRICKHOUSE (15/1) was part of a very fast pace last time, but he headed a foe at the wire to graduate in an off-the-turf event. It was a very sharp effort, but it came off a June 2017 layoff, so he must have been fully cranked for that return performance. I have to think he bounces today—and even if he doesn’t, he’ll have to show he can pass horses. GRADE: X. #9 DRIZZY (8/1) is another one who hasn’t been seen since September 2017, so we’ll see how this 3-year-old fares today off the layoff. It’s encouraging to see Espinoza take the call, since he’s very selective these days, and I like the fact that this guy showed he can pass horses in his previous three races. He’ll need a big step forward today, but at least he has the right running style for this event. GRADE: C. #10 ROCKET FUEL (5/1) has always been a quick horse, so Maldonado should have him up on the pace early—but with so much speed to his inside, he’s likely to get marooned 5-wide, and that’s never a good thing with a short run into the turn. He set a fast pace at this level last time and weakened to finish fourth as the 11/10 favorite. Granted, it was at 6.5-furlongs, so he shortens up today, but I’m not crazy about this post here. GRADE: B. #11 SWISS MINISTER (7/2) should get a good tracking trip, provided Pena doesn’t have him too wide into the turn. He’s shown an ability to pass horses throughout his career, so he’ll have every chance with today’s pace scenario to show his best stuff. I’d like him a lot more if he were drawn more inside, but he’s obvious in here. GRADE: A.
LEG 4 (R9): We close out the week with a deep $50K maiden-claimer contested at 9-furlongs on the turf. Thirteen runners have been entered, but 11 will go postward with the rails out 10-feet. There should be enough pace in here to make this a fairly run race. #1 STREET TO INDY (10/1) is still a maiden after twelve tries, and that’s a bit surprising to me because I’ve always liked this guy as a decent stretch-runner. Well, today could be the day as he makes the third start of his form cycle after a very nice prep against tougher MSWs last time, outrunning his 71/1 odds to finish fourth. He’s a must-use in your exotics. GRADE: A. #2 STARTING BLOC (3/1) should be very tough in here if he’s a still a horse. I say that because his last race against MSWs wasn’t bad, and yet Mandella is willing to lose him for $50K—and he doesn’t give anything away. Plus, check out Mandella’s 0-for-13 record with MSWs dropping into MCLs. Most trainers excel with that move! Still, his last race is plenty good to win here, and it’s nice to see Prat remain loyal to his main man. Feel free to make him an “A,” but I’m downgrading him slightly because I find it odd that the connections are ready to cut bait so soon (and he’ll offer little value). GRADE: B. #3 KINEMATICO (12/1) has plenty of early speed, but he’s lacked stamina. He came off a layoff last time to set the pace and weaken badly back in February. Seemingly, he’ll be tighter today, but will it be enough with other forwardly placed types in here? GRADE: X. #4 HAYLORD (12/1) hopped on turf for the first time last time, and he responded with a solid third-place finish at this level, despite his 74/1 odds. He set an easy lead that day, however, and was still overtaken—while today, he faces more pace pressure. GRADE: X. #5 HOOVER TOWER (20/1) is a 5-year-old who makes his second career start, and that’s not a good thing. He was well-beaten in his debut down the hill, so he’ll need to step things up considerably on the stretch-out today. At least Kent sticks around, so I expect a better performance today—I’m just not sure it will be good enough. GRADE: X. #6 HOT AMERICAN (15/1) is a 3-year-old who debuts for Drysdale, who typically gives them one. It’s tough to win going long at first asking, so I have to watch one. GRADE: X. #7 MO OVER (4/1), another 3-year-old, ran second at the $100K level but against his own age group. He drops in price today but now has to face elders. Still, that last race was a decent second, where he showed he could stalk the pace before making a bid. He should improve off that, but he will need to run faster today against more seasoned runners. GRADE: C. #8 AMAZON CRY (7/2) has run well at this level, so he’s an obvious contender, especially since I’m sure D’Amato will have him fully cranked today off a November 2017 layoff. GRADE: A. #9 ODYSSEY EXPLORER (12/1) has had plenty of chances, but his late-running style has been his undoing, coming on through the lane too late to have any real say in the matter. That said, he gets a jock upgrade today, so maybe Franco can time his ride a bit better than his previous jocks. He’s not impossible in here with the right pace set-up. GRADE: C. #10 ROARING FORK (6/1) was just claimed for $50K, and new trainer Sean McCarthy promptly gelds him and adds blinkers—two solid moves. That said, I’m not sure this 3-year-old is up to the task today, since the one time he went long on turf, he stalked a glacial pace yet lost lengths in the lane. GRADE: X. #11 TRAFFIC THIEF (12/1) was 18/1 at this level last time despite dropping in class, and the public was right, as he finished seventh. Sadler tries Ceballos and his 5-pound weight-advantage today, but that’s not enough for me. GRADE: X. #12 IT’S A NEW YEAR (6/1) (AE) has dirt speed, and this 3-year-old will need it from this tough post. I’m okay letting him beat me, since I’m sure Espinoza will gun hard and hope for the best—and
there is plenty of other speed in here that makes a wire job unlikely. That said, there is plenty of turf on the dam side if you think this guy can move up considerably off that. GRADE: X. #13 ORIGINAL INTENT (12/1) (AE) is a 3-year-old who has done decent work against agerestricted MSWs up north while racing on synth. The dam’s offspring have not been successful turfrouting, so this guy will have to buck that trend. Plus, Prat will need to time things just right from this tough outside post. GRADE: X. SUGGESTED WAGER This is a cool sequence, and it costs only $72 to cover the whole MATRIX. If you want to spend less, $64 will get you all “A’s” with two “B’s,” while $26 will get you all “A’s” with one “B.” Remember: whatever you choose to do: only play what you’re comfortable spending or create your own Ticketmaker play here: http://www.drf.com/store/drf-bets-ticketmaker. For more info about OptixEQ, please visit and register at https://www.optixeq.com/. [SCROLL DOWN FOR MATRIX] Keep in mind: I don’t add “Also Eligibles” to the matrix, so if they draw in, be sure to include them on all of your tickets!
