the pick 4 matrix - Bitly

THE PICK 4 MATRIX By Frank R. Scatoni (follow on Twitter @ScatoniSureShot and also check out @OptixEQ) 3/30/18 NOTE: Because this analysis is posted in advance, always check my Twitter feed @ScatoniSureShot for real-time updates based on scratches and track conditions—as this analysis is written for surfaces that are fast and firm. Thanks! INTRO We’ve got a nine-race card on tap for Friday, featuring a $300K Guaranteed Late Pick 4 that includes some decent races. This should be a good sequence, so let’s see what we can conjure up… LEG 1 (R6): Today’s first leg is the first of two turf races, this one being a $75K optional-claiming/N1X for 3-year-old fillies going down the hill. The turf rails are at 20-feet, and there looks to be a lot of pace entered here. #1 MISS PUDDLES (IRE) (12/1) gets class-relief after three straight stakes races since relocating to the U.S. That said, she hasn’t really shown much in those races, including last time when she was part of a fair pace down the hill, only to weaken and finish sixth. Baze will have to use her speed from the rail, and in a race with plenty of other forwardly placed runners, that should soften her up late. GRADE: X. #2 MRASEEL (IRE) (8/1) is another one who hasn’t shown much against stakes foes since coming to America, but she’s had some excuses: two back, she had trouble down the hill, while last time, she was off slowly and had to chase a very fast pace. Her lack of early speed would normally be an issue, but in a race loaded with pace, you have to consider her for a slice given her late-running style. GRADE: C. #3 TRAVIEZA (10/1) has run twice down the hill, but last time, she was absolutely gifted the win when she was loose on the lead through glacial splits, allowing her to easily break her maiden. Before that, she got a perfect trip but was outfinished by one of today’s rivals. You can’t discount her course experience, but the waters get significantly deeper today. GRADE: C. #4 FACTORFORWON (10/1), the first Glatt entrant, broke her maiden down the hill in wire fashion last October. She too got away with an unchallenged lead and never looked back—but since then, she’s struggled versus winners, including a sixth-place finish last time when dueling. Glatt removes the hood today, so maybe she’ll show more patience, but the pace set-up doesn’t favor her, and note that Baze ends up on another. GRADE: X. #5 PURSUING THE DREAM (IRE) (4/1) makes her U.S. debut after running against some decent sprinters overseas. I don’t usually like Euros debuting down the hill because they often find themselves too far back, but in a race loaded with forwardly placed runners, today might be the exception. I’m sure Van Dyke will be patient with this gal and look to produce one strong late run. GRADE: B. #6 PROUD HEROINE (8/1) looked sharp breaking her maiden two back in her first try down the hill. She stalked comfortably and then powered home to win going away. Toss her last start going a mile against stakes foes while having to break from the 11-hole, and you’re looking at a gal who should put forth a good effort. That said, I do think it’s odd that Yakteen is re-adding the blinkers today even though

this gal’s only win came without them. That might not be a good thing in a race that should have a quick pace. GRADE: B. #7 CLASSY ATLANTIC (6/1), the second Glatt runner, wired maidens last time over this course, clearing early and holding sway late. Her speed is her asset, but in a field filled with similar types, that asset becomes a liability. Can she pass horses? GRADE: C. #8 OUT OF THE FLAMES (GB) (9/5) is definitely the one to beat, since she has done decent work down the hill against better, and she has the perfect running style to track the pace before producing late. Callaghan adds blinkers today to help keep this gal focused in the lane, because she’s always right there, but she’s yet to get that U.S. victory. Today could easily be the day. GRADE: A. #9 ATREVIDA (20/1) broke her maiden for $30K, so she seems outclassed here, even though she did try stakes foes (to no avail) two back. She has tactical speed and gets a 5-pound weight-break, but the positives end there. GRADE: X. #10 ALLIANNA (12/1) hops on turf for the first time, and that almost seems like a give-up move for Miller, since this gal looked really good breaking her maiden on dirt last year at Del Mar. Note that he tried the blinkers last time to no avail, and he takes them off today—that seemed like an experiment as well, since it’s quite possible this gal (who was good enough to run in the Grade 2 Santa Ynez) isn’t the same animal. That said, Miller wins a ridiculous amount of downhill races, so don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater here. GRADE: C. #11 STREETWITHNONAME (15/1) (AE) has a solid closing kick, and that will come in handy in a race that should have a quick clip. Class might be an issue, however, since she needed $80K maidens to graduate—and she just failed at this entry level up north. But pace makes the race, and that makes her a tertiary contender. GRADE: C. #12 HOLY DIVER (50/1) (AE) has had too many chances to count. GRADE: X. #13 SPECIAL PURPOSE (IRE) (7/2) (AE), the second Callaghan, attracts Nakatani for her U.S. debut, and that’s always a positive. She did fine work overseas, and she should fit in nicely with this group. GRADE: B. LEG 2 (R7): Today’s second leg is a $20K maiden seller for 3-year-old fillies going a short 5-furlongs on the main track. I’m not crazy about any of the ones who have run, so the firsters get the nod for me. #1 GAMEZAPPER (12/1), not to be confused with Ghostzapper, showed tactical speed in her debut at Los Al but tired to finish sixth. She’s needed 189-days since that race. GRADE: X. #2 BRAGGING RIGHTS (6/1) was 3/1 at this level two back, and a wide journey compromised her chances. She’ll get a better trip today, but she’s going to need to step things up. Note that Baze bails. GRADE: B. #3 ALLIE’S LOVE (9/2) runs for $20K after three straight mediocre efforts against $30K foes, where she was the beaten favorite twice. She should appreciate this shorter distance and her speed makes her a contender, but she’s unexciting in here. GRADE: B. #4 MONGOLIAN RAHY (4/1) looks to be sitting on a career best, making the third start of her career after moving forward in start number-two. She should get a good tracking trip, and Ganbat legs up Elliott, who booted home a nice-priced winner for him this meet. GRADE: B. #5 MISS BARTON (20/1) did no running in her debut, so she can’t do any worse than that. I’m fine watching start number-two. GRADE: X.

#6 TRICKY GAL (10/1) saved ground and sucked up for second in her debut, going 5.5-furlongs at Los Al. She’s needed 110-days since that race, and her lack of early speed is a concern at this short distance. GRADE: X. #7 IRISH CREAM N KAFE (6/1) debuts for Miyadi, who can win with firsters, especially for Tommy Town. There’s a nice hidden work back on February 7 for a trainer who works them notoriously slow. GRADE: A. #8 BABY BROWN (5/2) debuts for Hofmans, who has done fine work with firsters this past year. The works suggest she’ll come out firing. GRADE: A. #9 LIL’ A. J. (6/1) debuts for Yakteen, who is average with his debutantes, and the works aren’t as flashy as her inside rival’s—but she attracts Baze, which is a positive (though he will have to avoid a very wide trip with a short run into the turn). GRADE: B. LEG 3 (R8): Today’s feature is a neat $62.5K optional-claiming/N2X for older horses going 7-furlongs on the main track. #1 SO CONFLATED (10/1), the first O’Neill entrant, has always had ability, but after being forced on the Derby Trail, he fell apart. He hasn’t been seen since April 2017, but he returns a new gelding while spotted where he belongs. Unfortunately, he draws the rail and has to face a very tough Baffert runner. GRADE: X. #2 I WILL SCORE (8/1) scored nicely last time when dropping to the $32K level and wiring five other foes going a mile on a speed-favoring track. Note that he’s a former Grade 3 winner at today’s distance, so he does bring back class to the table, but there’s a reason he’s been running for a tag after a 2016 injury. GRADE: X. #3 HOFFENHEIM (6/1) steps up in class after running on late to finish third at the $40K level. He always comes on for his late run, but he hasn’t won in a long time, and there has to be a reason why Callaghan gave up on this once promising horse. GRADE: X. #4 EXCITATIONS (4/1) did not give off any good vibrations last time when running a bad seventh at this level last time, making his first start for O’Neill. That said, it’s quite possible he was a short horse that day, and it’s encouraging to see no panicky drop. He definitely has races from back East that fit nicely here, so I’m willing to give him another chance to show his best stuff—but he still looks a big cut below the chalk. GRADE: B. #5 TEN BLESSINGS (8/5) is going to be hard to deny in here. He came off a 431-day layoff last time to run a valiant second to his stablemate over a wet-fast track. Before he hit the shelf, he was running third in the 2016 Malibu (G1), losing to two very fast sprinters. I’m sure Baffert will have him tight and ready to run today. GRADE: A. #6 CONQUEST COBRA (7/2) has been gone longer than a year after running third in the Triple Bend (G1) last March. His best races are a fit in here, but note that he’s in for the $62.5K tag off the long layoff instead of running in a stakes race, since he certainly fit at that level last year. It’s encouraging to see Prat take the call, and we all know Cerin has been on fire this meet. GRADE: B. #7 DESERT LAW (6/1) is a Cal-bred whose two tries at the open N2X level haven’t been that good. All of his wins have come at 6-furlongs or shorter, and the one time he tried 7-panels, he lost lengths in the lane. That’s a big negative to me, though I do think he’ll run much better than he did last time while getting back on dirt and making the second start of his form cycle. GRADE: C.

LEG 4 (R9): We finish the day with a Cal-bred Maiden Special Weight contested at 8-furlongs on the lawn. The rails are at 20-feet. #1 I’M AMORE (50/1) has been beaten double-digits in all of his starts. GRADE: X. #2 HUDDLE (5/1) stretches out after running an okay third down the hill in his debut. It was a pretty slow race, but it did produce a next-out winner, so maybe there was some quality in there. GRADE: B. #3 MINISTER’S GLORY (7/2) has had a few chances at this level, and he just kind of seems to grind along, not really showing the eye of the tiger. That said, Prat takes the call for the first time. GRADE: B. #4 HAILEY’S KID COMET (50/1) was 80/1 at this level last time, and he finished seventh. A similar fate awaits. GRADE: X. #5 JERSEY’S HEAT (6/1) ran third at this level and distance two back at 17/1. Last time, he left himself too much to do down the hill. He’s making the third start of his form cycle, so he’s eligible to improve, but he’ll need the right pace set-up to flatter his late run. GRADE: C. #6 ASHLEY’S BIG GUY (12/1) is a half to Ashleyluvssugar, so we’ll see what he can do in his first turf try, since the previous times he tried to get on turf, the races were washed off. That said, he’s been double-digit odds in all three of his starts, so he might need a few more races before finding his best stride. GRADE: C. #7 COOL YOUR JETS (6/1) had too much to do last time in a race that was washed off the turf. I liked the way he finished in his debut run down the hill, so he should run better today getting back on the lawn. Still, he will need a step forward for the top spot. GRADE: B. #8 SMART KNOWS SMART (6/1) has tactical speed and removes the hood today after two tries with it on. He missed by a nose at this level back in November, but he hasn’t been able to replicate that effort. You can’t discount any Miller runner, but this guy has had his chances. GRADE: C. #9 SAVE GROUND (5/2) is one of the few older horses in the field, and he looks like he’ll be very tough, coming off a brief freshening after a solid second at this level back in January. The blinkers come off and C-Nak hops on board, so you know Cecil means business. GRADE: A. #10 MAVERICKS (8/1) makes his turf debut after four dirt sprints. I’m not crazy about this move—but he has sprint speed, so I’m sure Quinonez will look to take them all the way. GRADE: X. #11 READY EDDIE (10/1) (AE) should run a decent race after finishing second in an off-the-turf affair last time. Before that, he had a ton of trouble going a mile on the lawn, but he finished up decently enough to be a secondary contender here. GRADE: B. #12 TATAR (4/1) (AE) is a 5-year-old who has been knocking on the door but has always come up a bit short. His speed makes him dangerous, and the hood comes off today—but he’ll have to use everything he has to clear early, and that will probably soften him up late. GRADE: C. SUGGESTED WAGER We are really tight with our “A’s,” so the MATRIX costs only $60. If you want to spend less, $48 will get you all “A’s” with two “B’s,” while $13.50 will get you all “A’s” with one “B.” Remember: whatever you choose to do: only play what you’re comfortable spending or create your own Ticketmaker play here: http://www.drf.com/store/drf-bets-ticketmaker. For more info about OptixEQ, please visit and register at https://www.optixeq.com/. [SCROLL DOWN FOR MATRIX]

Keep in mind: I don’t add “Also Eligibles” to the matrix, so if they draw in, be sure to include them on all of your tickets!