the pick 4 matrix - Bitly

THE PICK 4 MATRIX By Frank R. Scatoni (follow on Twitter @ScatoniSureShot and also check out @OptixEQ) 4/5/18 NOTE: Because this analysis is posted in advance, always check my Twitter feed @ScatoniSureShot for real-time updates based on scratches and track conditions—as this analysis is written for surfaces that are fast and firm. Thanks! INTRO What an amazing way to kick off Santa Anita Derby week—with a $339K Pick 6 double carryover! Of course, today’s $300K Guaranteed Late Pick 4 will conclude the six-race sequence, so let’s see if we can close out the last two-thirds of the Pick 6 by hitting this Late Pick 4 as well (though I have to admit: today’s sequence is extremely difficult)! LEG 1 (R5): We start things off with a competitive $50K maiden-claimer for fillies and mares going 6.5-furlongs down the hill. #1 CALIFORNIA BREEZE (4/1) goes out for D’Amato, who just had a downhill winner on Sunday while breaking from the rail, so let’s not throw the baby out with the bathwater considering this tough post. This gal did okay work against much tougher MSW foes, so she’ll appreciate the class-relief: it’s just a matter of whether she can work out a trip. GRADE: B. #2 BISCOTTI GAL (20/1) makes the second start of her form cycle after failing to fire on a muddy/sealed track. I can forgive that effort, but if you go back to her one downhill try against Cal-bred MSWs, you’ll see that she just ran evenly to the wire. Sure, she’s in for a tag for the first time today, but so are a few others who look better. GRADE: X. #3 FOXTAIL (6/1) was 11/1 in her debut at this level down the hill, and she didn’t disgrace herself, finishing fourth. She’s eligible to improve off that performance, but she will have to best Diva La Mousse who handled her pretty easily last time. GRADE: B. #4 HIMMAH (IRE) (7/2), the first Glatt entrant, picked up a lot of checks overseas, but she was no real threat in her U.S. debut when facing much tougher over this course back in December. Glatt now brings her back for a tag after giving her enough time while also legging up Prat, so it looks like he means business today. She should be rolling late, but do note that she’s a 3-year-old facing elders for the first time. GRADE: A. #5 WESTERN MONGOLIA (20/1) is a 4-year-old making her first start, so we’ll see how she handles the hill today. Ganbat has yet to have a debut winner on this circuit, and it’s not like the breeding seems precocious. I’m okay watching one. GRADE: X. #6 TANDA’S JOY (10/1), the first Puype, comes off a 349-day layoff after two poor efforts against MSWs, going off at 10/1 and 14/1. Those races were a long time ago, however, and Puype has been terrific with these types of comebackers over the last few years. You have to take a leap of faith today, since that form is so bad, but the class-relief and the presence of Van Dyke are not insignificant. GRADE: B.

#7 GIA LULA (8/1), the second Glatt runner, hit the shelf back in October after two poor races on dirt. She’s only tried turf once—an even third going a mile—and she’s never been down the hill. Glatt is fine with these types of comebackers, and this gal should get a good forwardly placed trip, but she’s a 3year-old facing elders for the first time. GRADE: C. #8 DIVA LA MOUSSE (2/1) will be the one to catch, since she has sharp early speed and has run well over this course before. She should also be much tighter after just running second at this level off a 304-day layoff. She’s obvious in here, but do note that she loses the 5-pound weight-break she had last time. GRADE: A. #9 SEA GLASS (15/1) is a little interesting in here, even though she’s a 3-year-old facing elders. She drops in from a $75K maiden, where she showed sharp early speed before weakening late in a race that was washed off the turf. Before that, she was unprepared at the start over this course against MSWs, yet she still came home respectably time-wise, even though she was well-beaten. Her form is a little sneaky. GRADE: B. #10 IZZYS EXPRESS (12/1), the second Puype, is a 4-year-old first-time starter who draws a comfortable post and attracts Talamo, who is one of Puype’s go-to guys. The breeding doesn’t really scream turf-sprinter, but Puype has been very dangerous with his debut maiden-claimers the past few years. Still, it’s tough to win at first-asking down the hill. GRADE: C. #11 EURASIA (20/1) (AE) stalked a very slow pace in her debut and then weakened badly, finishing last. She was 78/1 against tougher MSWs, and she did have to debut down the hill, which is never easy, so you can be a little forgiving—but I would have liked to have seen a bit more finishing ability in that first race. GRADE: X. #12 TOPAZ TIME (20/1) (AE) cuts back after an even fifth at this level going a mile. Before that, she lost to $20K foes on dirt, so she’ll have to show she can be competitive here while trying the hill for the first time. GRADE: X. #13 ON A TOOT (50/1) (AE) was 93/1 two back when trying this level going a mile. She outran her odds by finishing fourth, but she followed that up with a defeat on dirt at the $9K level at Los Al. She’ll need a career best. GRADE: X. #14 TROPHY BRIDLE (8/1) (AE) debuts for Gallagher, who doesn’t often have them fully cranked, so I’m okay watching one on a horse who should improve with experience. GRADE: X. LEG 2 (R6): Today’s second leg is a near-bottom $8K claimer for fillies and mares going 6-furlongs on the main track. #1 MY PROJECT GIRL (12/1) has been running against much weaker foes at Los Al while running much shorter distances. She’ll have to gun hard from the rail, and that should soften her up late. GRADE: X. #2 TIZ DELITEFUL (6/1) was claimed for $10K three back, but she hasn’t been able to run a winning race for her new barn—though in her defense, she’s been stuck at the rail, so a more favorable post today could work wonders. She’s better than her last few races. GRADE: C. #3 WHERE’S THE D (4/1) just won at this level going a mile, so she should be fit cutting back today—and she’s always been just fine as a sprinter. She’s obvious in here. GRADE: A. #4 TUSCANY BEAUTY (12/1) has races from late last year that fit well here, so I wouldn’t be ready to dismiss her just yet off two poor races, both of which can be explained away: two back, she dueled through fast splits, while last time, she had some trouble in a short race. Note that she’s dropping to the near-bottom today, so she could easily wake up. GRADE: C.

#5 POMP AND PARTY (3/1) was a top pick for me and a lot of others last time when she dropped to this level for the first time, got hammered to fifty-cents on the dollar, and ran a pretty bad second, while getting a 5-pound weight-break. She loses that break today. She’s obvious based on the paper form, but I really didn’t like the way she ran last time, so I’m willing to stand against. GRADE: C. #6 FOXY FRESH (5/2) has good speed, so bug-boy Espinoza will have every chance to put her in the race and look to get the victory while dropping to the $8K level for the first time. She looks good to me. GRADE: A. #7 ROCKANTHAROS (8/1) will benefit if there’s a pace collapse, since this grinder just keeps plugging away in the lane. She’s usable in your exotics, but she needed even lesser to get her most recent win. GRADE: C. #8 JILL MADDEN (5/1) cuts back after a defeat to Where’s the D last time when going a mile on the main track. She’s usually in the mix when spotted properly, so you could use her in your exotics, but I don’t like that she couldn’t win for $6,250 three back when Chew took her out of that race. She’s also been mostly routing, so we’ll see how she responds today. GRADE: C. LEG 3 (R7): Today’s main event is a Cal-bred N1X for fillies and mares going 8-furlongs on the lawn with the rails out 20-feet. A bunch of these have been squaring off against each other trying to clear this hurdle. #1 SPEAKERS (5/1) has run well several times at this level, but she was a total brat last time, pulling and acting the fool every step of the way while never looking comfortable. Not sure what was up, but it’s apparent that Gallagher hasn’t given up on her yet, and it’s nice to see Van Dyke back for more. I think she’ll run better today. GRADE: A. #2 MY AUNT TILLIE (4/1) is a pretty honest gal who came running on late last time to finish second in her first try versus winners. Surely, she can build off that performance, but she will have to show some more fight, since she’s made a habit of settling for the minor awards. GRADE: B. #3 MIZZEN GLORY (12/1) was stuck at this level for an eternity, but she responded nicely when D’Amato dropped her in for a $25K tag, beating eight other foes in that conditioned-claimer. Moger took her out of that race and has promptly protected her, which is a positive, but her failures at this level are well-documented. Use her in your exotics though. GRADE: C. #4 LOSTINTRANZLATION (7/2) was a maiden when she won at this level last time, beating a few of these in the process—so of course she looks tough right back, especially since she showed that she could rate last time after her previous race where she got involved in a furious pace duel. Baltas does great work with turf fillies, so that’s another angle to hang your hat on. GRADE: A. #5 DREAMY GAL (5/1) just missed against her inside rival two back, so she was sent off as the favorite last time at this level, where she stalked a quick pace before getting overtaken by two of these in the lane. There should be a decent clip in here, so I wonder if a similar fate awaits, since she likes to do her work on or near the front end. GRADE: B. #6 STREAK OF LUCK (10/1) is a 3-year-old who has been running respectably against agerestricted allowance foes, so it will be interesting to see how she responds today while facing fellow Calbreds (but older). She’s a bit of a grinder, and she should get a pace to close into, but I’m going to side with the older gals in here. GRADE: C. #7 BATIQUITOS (8/1) is a stretch-out sprinter, so she’ll look to dictate the pace in a race that should have an honest clip—so that will probably be her undoing since she is adding blinkers and this is also her first try around two turns. There’s definitely some ability here, since she’s never been off the board in four career starts, but we’ll see how she responds today trying something new. GRADE: B.

#8 ALMOST REALITY (20/1) is a 6-year-old mare who has been stuck at this level forever. She came off a 477-day layoff and ran half a race when facing these same types, so you can be forgiving of that race, especially since Prat takes the call—but even her decent form from last year isn’t that exciting. That said, she’ll be off the pace and should get something to run at today. GRADE: C. #9 X S GOLD (5/1) is a 3-year-old who attracts Desormeaux after running third at this level last time, setting a quick pace before getting overtaken in the lane. It wasn’t a bad effort, but she’ll need to do a lot better today, especially since there are plenty of forwardly placed types in here. Note that Desormeaux was up for the wire maiden-breaker. GRADE: C. #10 INLAND EMPIRE (12/1) is another 3-year-old, but she is a late runner who should get a nice pace to close into, assuming Smith doesn’t have her too far back, since he’s going to have to let the field go so he can angle over and save some ground. Her races look pretty slow on paper and she is facing winners for the first time, but I like that Eurton wants to put her on turf, since the race was washed off last time, yet she still won. GRADE: C. #11 SUGARATSUNDOWN (50/1) (AE) tries turf for the first time after several poor races against 3-year-old claimers and starter-allowance foes. She looks overmatched in here. GRADE: X. #12 PRINCESS DORIAN (20/1) (AE) just beat $12.5K/N2L types going 7-furlongs on dirt, so she takes a big step up in class today. She too has never been on turf, and I’m not sure that’s her calling— nor do I think she’ll get better around two turns. GRADE: X. #13 SILVERSPUN PICKUP (15/1) (AE) is another dirt sprinter trying turf and two turns for the first time. She is definitely bred to handle the lawn, so I think she could do okay on the green stuff, but note that she’s a 3-year-old who needed $25K claimers to get her second win last time after failing twice at the Cal-bred N1X level. GRADE: X. LEG 4 (R8): What a cruel way to end the Late Pick 4—with a Cal-bred MSW with several first-time starters, so we can’t rely on tote and paddock info to help us make a decision. So be it: we shall endeavor to pick the winner in this 6-furlong main-track affair. #1 SEATTLE ENCOUNTER (12/1) is a 3-year-old firster sent out by Ian Kruljac, who hasn’t had too many debut runners over the past year (even though he trained a Breeders’ Cup winner!). The breeding seems perfectly fine for this level, and note that he was scratched out of a $50K maiden race a few weeks ago, so maybe he can run a little bit and the connections didn’t want to lose him? Still, the other firsters look better to me. GRADE: X. #2 PERFECT WAGER (4/1) was off slowly from the rail in his debut, yet he showed some run in spots, earning an IMPROVE? note from OptixEQ. He was 31/1 that day, so I’m sure he wasn’t fully cranked, and he has every right to move forward today. GRADE: A. #3 GOING AWAY PARTY (20/1) is a 3-year-old who debuts for Headley, who also has the outside horse. The presence of bug-boy LeFranc makes me think this son of Acclamation is probably going to need one. GRADE: X. #4 LEROY (7/2) is a 4-year-old who is just making it to the races, so that’s not a positive—but the presence of Prat certainly is. Oviedo, an underrated trainer, is very capable with debut runners, and the works are solid enough for this guy to be competitive here. GRADE: A. #5 NOVA (12/1) has run well against claimers (both Cal-bred and open), but his two tries at this protected level last year were no good. I like the speed he showed last time, and I like the confidence shown today by protecting him off that second-place effort at the $75K open level, but what you see is what you get. GRADE: X.

#6 POCO DIABLO (6/1) is a 4-year-old first-time starter for Harrington, who has prepared this runner at Los Al, showing off some okay works—but the sire’s fee was only $1,500, and I wonder if this one will need lesser after today’s debut. GRADE: X. #7 FLYNN (5/1) is a 3-year-old debut runner for Miyadi, who can have them ready when he wants to. There are two really fast works hidden on the tab, and Miyadi is one who often works them slower than molasses. Plus, his barn has heated up lately, and he legs up his boy Roman. GRADE: B. #8 SOUL OWNER (8/1) was off slowly in his debut, and he really failed to get untracked after that. Roman jumps to the Miyadi runner, but at least Van Dyke takes the call on a horse who should improve in his second start. Still, others seem more appealing, especially since Belvoir is having an uncharacteristically tough meet so far. GRADE: X. #9 CAYATE (5/1) ran well against $50K types last time, but his tries at this level have been lacking—and he’s had plenty of them. He’ll break through one of these days, but what you see is what you get on this 4-year-old. GRADE: X. #10 POWERFUL THIRST (6/1) had been running okay at this level, but then Miyadi ran him for a $32K tag, and he responded with the worst performance of his life. Lerner took him out of that race back in November and has given him plenty of time to regroup. If this 3-year-old has matured at all from last year, he’s a fit—but there must have been a reason Miyadi wanted to get rid of him. GRADE: X. #11 ADVANTAGEOUS (20/1), the second Headley, looks to be the more live of the two with Quinonez taking the call (even though it looks like the stablemate worked a smidge faster than he did recently). Headley does great work with debutantes, but others look better to me. GRADE: X. SUGGESTED WAGER I had a very tough time with this sequence because I wasn’t crazy about any of the logical runners yet the other contenders all looked the same, so I had a hard time separating horses. I’ll present to you the whole MATRIX, which costs $126, based on letter-grades—but I wouldn’t fault you for spending a lot less. I’m going to try to get away with $78 covering all “A’s” with two “B’s,” or $40 will get you all “A’s” with one “B.” Remember: whatever you choose to do: only play what you’re comfortable spending or create your own Ticketmaker play here: http://www.drf.com/store/drf-bets-ticketmaker. For more info about OptixEQ, please visit and register at https://www.optixeq.com/. [SCROLL DOWN FOR MATRIX]

[SCROLL DOWN FOR MATRIX]

[SCROLL DOWN FOR MATRIX]

[SCROLL DOWN FOR MATRIX]

Keep in mind: I don’t add “Also Eligibles” to the matrix, so if they draw in, be sure to include them on all of your tickets!