Mar 31, 2018 - #7 KINGS RIVER KING (4/1) was in good form before he hit the bench in August after a third- place finish
THE PICK 4 MATRIX By Frank R. Scatoni (follow on Twitter @ScatoniSureShot and also check out @OptixEQ) 3/31/18 NOTE: Because this analysis is posted in advance, always check my Twitter feed @ScatoniSureShot for real-time updates based on scratches and track conditions—as this analysis is written for surfaces that are fast and firm. Thanks! INTRO Several full fields comprise today’s $500K Guaranteed Late Pick 4, which includes two nice downhill turf races. This is a very difficult Pick 4, with no real clear standouts and several competitive races—but let’s see if we can connect the dots on this 10-race card. LEG 1 (R7): We start things off with a $40K optional-claiming/N1X for older fillies and mares going 6.5-furlongs down the hill. The pace is a little muddled because while there are no real frontrunners, there are several presser types who like to be forwardly placed, so we’ll see which jocks look to get aggressive. #1 WAR MOCASSIN (8/1) is an off-the-pace router who adds blinkers in her first start for the Hess barn. She always seems to run her race, but she hasn’t won in a long time because of her style. This is her first try down the hill against some decent allowance runners, so she’s probably better suited for underneath from this tricky rail draw. GRADE: X. #2 GOTHAM DESIRE (12/1) has a win down the hill against Cal-bred N1X types, and then she had trouble in her first try at this level, so it’s hard to know exactly where she fits against open-company (especially since you have to toss her last race on a wet-fast track). Her tactical speed will have her in a good spot, but then she’ll have to outkick open company. GRADE: X. #3 LIGHTNING DOVE (12/1) makes her first SoCal start after failing to beat lesser in Kentucky. She does have some okay turf form from back East, but we all know that the hill is its own special beast, so I’m not sure how this gal will respond trying it for the first time and doing so at a tougher level. GRADE: X. #4 RUBY TRUST (8/1) chased the fast Bowie down the hill last time before weakening to finish fourth. That was her first try on the lawn, so she’s eligible to move forward (especially since her mom was an excellent turf sprinter)—and if she can somehow replicate her very sharp maiden-breaker, she could contend for a slice in here. But that maiden-breaker was a long time ago, and this gal hasn’t shown the same kick against winners. That said, I can see Maldonado being aggressive here. GRADE: B. #5 TIZANILLUSION (5/1) was 2/1 at this level last time, and she finished fourth after having to break from the rail. She gets a much better post today, and if she can show the same grit she did going 5-furlongs at Del Mar when she finished second at this level in her first SoCal start, she can be a contender in here, especially if Talamo is aggressive and uses her early speed. GRADE: B. #6 PERSISTANCE (IRE) (12/1) makes her first U.S. start after running marathons overseas, so I have to think this is just a leg-stretcher for a gal who just won a 12-furlong race at Lingfield on the synth. I imagine she’ll be way off the pace before launching a late bid. GRADE: X.
#7 DEMIGODDESS (50/1) has had her chances, so she’ll need many of these to fail to fire for her to get the nod. GRADE: X. #8 SALTEN SAPITY (3/1) stalked the pace last time down the hill at this level and finished second, losing to a next-out winner who ended up in stakes races, so no shame there. She broke her maiden down the hill, so she handles it well—and I expect her to run a good one today off a brief freshening. GRADE: A. #9 BEAU SQUARE (4/1) has two thirds at this level down the hill, but she finally catches a weak enough group to get it done today. I also love the jock change to C-Nak, so he should have this gal in a great spot from this nice outside post. GRADE: A. #10 GLORIOUS HOUR (7/2) looked sharp breaking her maiden last time in her first try down the hill. Obviously, the waters get deeper today, but that was a solid effort, so she’s not without a shot here if she can move forward again making the third start of her form cycle. Still, 7/2 seems a little short in her first try versus winners. GRADE: C. LEG 2 (R8): Today’s second leg is an unreliable $12.5K/N2L conditioned-claimer contested at 5.5-furlongs on the main track. #1 ON THE FENCE (6/1) was doing good work during the Obama administration, but he hasn’t been seen since 2013. He now returns after a 1,609-day layoff and runs at the near-bottom for Nestor Capitaine, who takes over for Jerry Fanning. This horse has races that would crush this field, but I just can’t support a runner coming off such a long vacation. GRADE: X. #2 TRUE RANGER (5/1) is a cool horse to own because he certainly earns his keep by constantly picking up checks, but he hasn’t won in a long time, failing to show the requisite oomph in the lane despite many attempts at this level. Use him in your exotics, but he’s tough to back on the win-end. GRADE: C. #3 BIG HEARTED (15/1) broke his maiden back in October for $20K in very slow time, and he hasn’t been seen since. I’m fine watching one. GRADE: X. #4 UPPERCLASSMAN (15/1) was 8/1 last time when dropping to this level for the first time, and he ran half a race, pushing a fast pace before weakening. Carava removes the hood today, so maybe he’ll settle a bit instead of getting swept up in a contentious pace, but he’ll need to recapture his 2017 form that saw him run some races good enough to win this. GRADE: B. #5 MAGICAL MORE (12/1) closed strongly to beat $16K maidens last time at 5/1. A repeat of that performance will put him in the hunt yet again, but Maragh will have to make sure this guy isn’t too far back at this slightly tougher level. GRADE: C. #6 BITTE (3/1) comes off a 308-day layoff and returns a new gelding for Sadler, who hasn’t been able to get a win out of him since claiming him for $30K more than a year ago. Before he hit the shelf, he was the 7/5 favorite at this level, but some trouble at the start compromised his chances. I’m sure he’ll be ready to run today, and his tactical speed makes him a contender. GRADE: B. #7 MILHAUD (5/2) just broke his maiden for $20K in wire fashion, getting an easy lead in a 5furlong race and never looking back. That speed makes him a threat right back. GRADE: B. #8 PAMPERS N’ BOOTS (7/2) adds blinkers, gets a 5-pound weight-break, and drops to this low level for the first time after running okay races against tougher $25K/N2L types. Those are all positives in a field filled with mediocrities. He also knows how to pass horses, so as long as Ceballos is aggressive early, this guy will have every chance to get the win. GRADE: A.
#9 AMODEI (20/1) dropped to this low level for the first time last time and no one bit, sending him off at 20/1. He ran to those long odds, getting pasted with no visible excuse. I suppose it’s possible he hated the wet-fast/sealed track, but even his races before against tougher weren’t that fast, so he’ll need to step things up today. The only positive is that Pedroza sticks around after such a poor race. GRADE: X. LEG 3 (R9): Today’s ninth is a challenging $50K starter-allowance contested at 6.5-furlongs on the main track. This is a really tough race because this starter level for sophomores typically showcases runners who take turns beating each other. #1 JOERAY (7/2) just won at this level, wiring six other foes when going 6-furlongs on a wetfast/sealed track. He’ll have to gun hard from the rail, and that will likely soften him up late in here. GRADE: C. #2 INFURIATED GARY (12/1), the first D’Amato entrant, tracked a very slow pace before powering home to beat $30K maidens at 8/1. The waters get a little deeper today, but I like that he showed he could pass horses, so he’s not without a shot in here, since the race should have an honest pace. GRADE: C. #3 LOLLY EXPRESS (12/1) looks exactly like Infuriated Gary, except this guy broke his maiden in his first career start, stalking the pace before drawing off to beat a full field of $30K maidens. He should trip out nicely in here, but can he move forward off that debut win? GRADE: B. #4 JIMMYTHISNJIMTHAT (12/1) was claimed off Blake Heap for $30K after a nice maiden victory, but his first start for Hollendorfer wasn’t any good; he stalked the pace down the hill at this level and weakened badly. He did have some minor trouble if you want to try and forgive him, but two foes who beat him that day are right back. GRADE: X. #5 EL ASESINO (4/1) looked good beating $50K maidens, stalking early before drawing off to win nicely. He fits against these. GRADE: B. #6 ELEVATED KNIGHT (15/1), the second D’Amato runner, broke his maiden against $50K types last time when stretching out to a mile. He was part of a quick early pace and then he crawled home late, even with a 5-pound weight-break. That said, he’ll be fit cutting back. GRADE: X. #7 LUKE’S ON FIRE (8/1) has a win at this level down the hill, where he showed versatility, coming from way off the pace to beat eight other foes. A repeat of that race would make him tough here, but do note that his dirt races aren’t nearly as good. GRADE: X. #8 TREASURE HUNTER (9/2) was a top pick for me at this level last time, and he ran a dud as the 2/1 favorite. Maybe he hated the wet-fast/sealed track because that was one of his worst races in recent memory. He’ll get a 5-pound weight-break today—but can he bounce back from that poor effort? GRADE: B. #9 SOUTHERN WARLORD (6/1) joins the Mulhall barn and comes off a 189-day layoff to try starter foes for the first time after running fourth in the Barretts Juvenile. He has plenty of speed, and this post will suit him well. Mulhall does fine work with these comebackers, and in a race where most of these look exactly the same, why not take a horse who did decent work as a juvenile last year? GRADE: A. #10 HONEYMOONZ OVER (5/1) was easily handled by Joeray last time when the two of them dueled it out early before Joeray inched away in the lane. I think 6.5-furlongs might also be a smidge too far for this guy, who has a tendency to lose lengths in the lane. That said, Roman should have options from this outside post if he can get him to settle a bit and conserve some of his energy. GRADE: X.
LEG 4 (R10): We close out this challenging sequence with a Cal-bred $16K optional-claiming/N1X affair for older runners going 6.5-furlongs down the hill. #1 NAP LAJOIE (12/1) broke his maiden down the hill, so he’ll appreciate a return to this course, especially after looking good beating starter types up north on synth, so you can basically just draw a line through all of the ugly form between those two races. He fits in here, but the rail is no fun, so I’m going to side against on top, but he’s usable underneath. GRADE: X. #2 LORD ADMIRAL (20/1) has route speed cutting back, and that’s always dangerous, but this runner has never crossed the wire first, and the connections don’t really inspire. I’m okay watching one for his first try down the hill. GRADE: X. #3 DR. TROUTMAN (8/1) broke his maiden down the hill, and he has excuses for his two bad hillside races since then. He shows up a new gelding and should be running on late today. GRADE: B. #4 CLOSING TIME (7/2) is another one who should be running on late, which is what he did last time when he nearly beat tougher foes over this course. GRADE: B. #5 IBON (12/1) broke his maiden down the hill, closing strongly to beat nine other rivals in his career debut. His next race versus winners was no good, however, but it came going long. A return to the hillside should help. GRADE: B. #6 PREACHER ROE (12/1) has a ton of early speed, so it’s his race to lose on the front end. Strangely enough, this speedster has never tried the hill, but we all know that route speed is dangerous cutting back, so he should run a good one today. GRADE: B. #7 KINGS RIVER KING (4/1) was in good form before he hit the bench in August after a thirdplace finish against tougher going a mile. I’ve always thought he had ability, but he might need one off a 225-day layoff. GRADE: B. #8 KENNY BENNY (20/1) has looked good beating up beaten claimers on dirt, so we’ll see if he can transfer that form to the turf. I’m skeptical. GRADE: X. #9 EL TOVAR (5/1) looks to be the one to beat, as this 9-year-old warrior has always done good work down the hill, and he’s dropping to this low level after running against much tougher. He should be flying late. GRADE: A. #10 MOSTLY CLOUDY (50/1) looks overmatched in here, having failed to beat conditionedclaimers multiple times. GRADE: X. #11 ALSATIAN (6/1) is coming off a 218-day layoff for a patient trainer who usually gives them one off the bench—hence the presence of bug-boy Ceballos. This guy’s one try down the hill was a solid second, but since that 2016 race, Drysdale has kept him around two turns. GRADE: X. #12 GREEN WITH EDDIE (6/1) found open-company too tough for him, so he’ll appreciate a return to restricted runners. His run down the hill two back fits well in here, and he should get a great tracking trip from this outside post. GRADE: B. SUGGESTED WAGER I know this MATRIX is an expensive $105, but you should have seen the cost before I started to really trim horses—that’s how tough I think this sequence is. On the plus side, if you hit it, you should get paid. Feel free to whittle down your tickets even more, but if you want to stick to the MATRIX and spend less, $98 will get you all “A’s” with two “B’s” (though that’s not really worth it), while $24 will get you all “A’s” with one “B.” Remember: whatever you choose to do: only play what you’re comfortable spending or
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