Jul 9, 2016 - call. Note that she was entered in an easier spot yesterday but scratched to run here if you want to take
THE PICK 4 MATRIX By Frank R. Scatoni (on Twitter @ScatoniSureShot and @OptixEQ) 7/9/16 NOTE: Because this analysis is posted the day before, always check my Twitter feed @ScatoniSureShot for real-time updates based on scratches and track conditions. Thanks! LEG 1 (R6): It’s the penultimate day before the end of the Spring/Summer meet…but fear not, Del Mar is less than a week away—god forbid anyone get a break before the next big California meet begins! But let’s try to stay as fresh as possible in this $500K Guaranteed Late Pick 4, which should offer some value in what looks to be several competitive races. We kick things off with a $16K starter-handicap contested at 5-furlongs on the main track. Since it’s a handicap, pay attention to the weights; you’ll see that a 3-year-old is actually the high-weight in this event. #1 VALDIRONE (30/1) makes the third start of his form cycle, so he should be sitting on a peak effort, but note that he’s had some physical issues and that he’s been racing at much lower levels. The rail draw will force him to use his tactical speed, and that should be his undoing. GRADE: X. #2 WILDFIRE KID (10/1) set a blazing pace last time against $20K foes, eventually getting overtaken by a rival he will have to face again today. That race, however, came at 6.5-furlongs, so the cutback should do him wonders. That said, perhaps this level is a smidge too tough for him, since his last two wins both came at the $10K level. GRADE: B. #3 TOO FAST TO PASS (5/2) was just claimed out of a $20K win, where he got a perfect pace setup to win very handily. Interestingly enough, this guy’s last two wins have come at 6.5-furlongs, so who knows how he will handle the cutback to 5-furlongs, especially since he does better when he can sit just off the pace and kick home. Will he be too far back? GRADE: A. #4 JUSTONEMORETHING (15/1) is a closer who will have to use some energy early for fear of falling too far back. He hasn’t won since an $8K victory in January, while his last race at the $16K level saw him pretty easily defeated, though I will admit that the race was pretty tough for the level. Looks like he’ll need a pace meltdown today though. GRADE: X. #5 RUNAWAY WILDCAT (20/1) has done all of his best work at Los Al (day and night), while his most recent try on this circuit resulted in a defeat at the $12.5K level. He tuned up for this in an 870yard dash at Los Al, where he finished second, but he’ll need a move forward to prove himself class-wise in here. GRADE: X. #6 NAVY HYMN (4/5) has been completely dominant against fellow 3-year-olds, winning five in a row after setting the pace and running them off their heels. However, this is the first time he’ll be facing elders, and note that he’s the high-weight at 123-pounds. I’m not saying he can’t or won’t win, but be very careful backing 3-year-olds who are carrying more weight than older horses. GRADE: A. #7 SACRED OVATION (7/2) seems to be plagued with some physical issues this year since he had to come off a February layoff to beat $12.5K starter-allowance foes in April, after which he promptly had to hit the shelf again. Normally, that’s a big red flag for me, but Mulhall has been making all of the right moves this year, and clearly, this runner likes to fire fresh. Plus, the workouts are positively sizzling. I also think the outside draw gives this tactically oriented horse the potential for the best trip. GRADE: A. #8 TOMMY WEAVER (50/1) has been well-beaten on the main circuit, and he needed $8,500 maidens at Los Al (night) to break his maiden—oh, and that came in an 870-yard dash. GRADE: X.
LEG 2 (R7): Today’s second leg is a $40K optional-claiming/N1X for fillies and mares going 8-furlongs on the main track. A few of these, who like to run on or near the lead, had easy set-ups last time yet still couldn’t get the job done, so I want a horse who I know will finish strongly. #1 BIG BREAK (4/1) was a major disappointment last time. She was the only speed in a very weak $32K field, where she got away with an easy, uncontested trip, but was then easily overtaken by a career nibbler. Now she moves up in class, and there are other horses with decent early speed in here. I don’t think I’m ready to forgive her for her no-excuse loss at 7/5 last time. GRADE: C. #2 COMEALONGWITHME (12/1) just beat $12.5K/N2L conditioned-claimers back in May, but she needed some time to get back to the races—never a good sign when a horse wins two races in a row and then has to hit the shelf. She’s also getting a major class test today, so she’ll need to prove she can hang with allowance types. GRADE: X. #3 MINSTER’SADVENTURE (3/1), like the rail horse, set a pretty easy pace last time only to be overtaken in the lane, running second despite a very comfortable trip. Her speed means she can sit right off the inside horse and get first run, but then she’ll have to fend off a solid stretch-runner. GRADE: B. #4 SAVANNAH SKY (5/2), the first Baltas entrant, has run well enough to clear this hurdle, running second in her last two starts, and I think she’ll get the right pace set-up today to flatter her late run. She’s coming off a brief freshening, and her work pattern suggests she’s ready for her best. Raffi stays put. GRADE: A. #5 MELANISTIC (5/1), the second Baltas runner, has tactical speed, so she should help keep the pace honest for her stablemate. This gal was also part of a slow pace last time at this level, but she lacked the requisite punch and could only manage third despite a perfect trip. That said, she’s making the second start of her form cycle, and if the other speed horses start to falter, this gal could find herself in front at the sixteenth-pole. GRADE: C. #6 KYANKES (4/1) has been racing mostly on turf recently, but she does have a solid starterallowance win going 8-furlongs on the dirt, so it’s no surprise that Glatt switches surfaces and stretches her out after two blah 6.5-furlong downhill races. She will have to improve considerably based on her past dirt form, but she’s likely sitting on a solid effort, and note that Prat sees fit to ride. GRADE: C. #7 CONQUEST SO TRUE (8/1) has been sprinting since she came here via Woodbine back in January. She hasn’t been able to beat starter-allowance runners, so unless she transforms herself into a completely different animal on the stretch-out, she seems in tough today against these. She’ll be getting a 7-pound weight-break to help her cause, but that’s mostly because Raffi bails and Lindsay takes the call. Note that she was entered in an easier spot yesterday but scratched to run here if you want to take that as a vote of confidence. GRADE: X. LEG 3 (R8): Today’s third leg is the $125K Santa Anita Juvenile, a 5.5-furlong dash for 2-year-olds. Obviously, we have very limited info to go on, since all of these horses have run only once, so let’s see if we can project which one will improve today. #1 REBEL WAR (12/1) is still a maiden, but as an off-the-pace runner, he should benefit from a quick clip, with several guys in here content on being on or near the lead. Still, I’m not sure a stretchrunner going 5.5-furlongs while breaking from the rail is something I can get behind. GRADE: X. #2 GREEN WITH EDDIE (3/1), the first O’Neill runner, set the pace and won in hand in his debut against Cal-bred MSWs. Obviously, this open field is tougher, but that was a sharp effort for a guy who had shown ability in the morning, hence his 3/5 closing price. Since he’s the inside speed, Prat will be forced to go. GRADE: A. #3 SECRET HOUSE (3/1), the second O’Neill runner, was sent off at 5/1 in a field of five runners, but he contested the early pace and drew off like a good thing to win pretty easily. He didn’t earn as fast
a time as his stablemate, but I like the way he did it. Note that he outworked his stablemate on June 26, but then the stablemate outworked him on July 3. GRADE: A. #4 SILVER ASSAULT (5/2), sent off at 7/2 in his debut, broke from the 10-post, cleared early, and held sway very comfortably in a 5-furlong affair. It was a sharp effort, and I see no reason why he shouldn’t continue to improve. GRADE: A. #5 RIGHT HAND MAN (7/2) was 3/1 in his debut, where he too set the pace and won comfortably. It was a solid effort, but it wasn’t as sharp as Silver Assault’s. GRADE: B. #6 CALIFORNIA DIAMOND (4/1) debuted at 13/10 in a Cal-bred MSW, where he broke from this very same post, stalked the pace, and took over when it counted. It was a nice effort, showing that he could rate and pass horses, a skill that will serve him well today—but he’s going to need to run a bit faster against open-company today. GRADE: C. LEG 4 (R9): We close out today’s Late Pick 4 with a good, old, unreliable $25K/N2L conditioned-claimer contested at 7-furlongs on the main track. Get ready for an ugly stretch run in that final furlong, especially with horses who just hate to win. #1 UNBRIDLED ROCKET (8/1) was off a bit slow at this level last time and he just never got untracked, losing by double-digit lengths. He was 6/1 in a nine-horse field, so someone was giving this 3year-old a little bit of a chance despite facing elders for the first time. He’ll have to face elders again while breaking from the rail at this tough distance. The good news is: if you like him, you get Prat. GRADE: C. #2 MADIKWE (8/1) is a very deep closer whose best work has come on the lawn. His dirt efforts have been horrible, so he’s tough to support today, even though he should be fit coming out of turf routes. I suppose if the race completely falls apart…GRADE: C. #3 BOONE DOCKS (7/2) looks pretty good in here, even though he’s already lost twice at this level when racing on dirt. But I like that he’s making the old-school one-mile turf cutback to 7-furlongs dirt move. I also like that the blinkers come off a horse who has very good tactical speed. Note, however, that both trainer and jockey are in search of their first wins at the meet. GRADE: A. #4 CURLY ROAD (6/1) came off a layoff to run sixth at this level at 22/1. Maybe he can improve off that effort, but it’s not like his 3-year-old form from last year is any good. He does have some tactical speed, but he also seems to have some stamina concerns. GRADE: C. #5 CHASINTHEACES (2/1) was very disappointing last time at this level when being sent off as the 9/10 favorite, checking in third after pushing the early pace. He should have done better since he was dropping in class, but perhaps we can forgive him because he’s had to break from the rail in his last two starts, while today he can stalk the pace instead of pushing it. GRADE: A. #6 WOODY’S FOLLY (4/1) clearly has some physical issues, unable to string two races in a row recently. He’s coming off a March layoff, where he faced starter-allowance horses on the turf. In fact, his only win has come on the turf, while his dirt efforts have just been okay. He’s also done his best work around two turns, so who knows how he’ll perform on the cutback. Spawr’s trainer stats are encouraging in all the right categories, however. GRADE: C. #7 GRAMSSON (5/1) was claimed off Baffert last time when he dropped into this level and was well-beaten at 3/1. In his defense, he broke from the rail, pressed the pace, and weakened. He’s since been freshened, and he returns as a gelding—but note that he’s a 3-year-old who has yet to beat elders, so he’ll need his very best today. At the very least, he should get a good tracking trip. GRADE: B.
SUGGESTED WAGER Today’s entire matrix costs $91, which seems too much to spend, considering the fact that none of our “A’s” are beyond 5/1 on the morning-line. A more reasonable play would be all “A’s” and two “B’s” for only $43. That gives you the coverage of all the “A’s” with two moderately priced horses as back-ups in case the main contenders falter in two of the legs. Remember: whatever you choose to do: only play what you’re comfortable spending or create your own Ticketmaker play here: http://www.drf.com/store/drf-bets-ticketmaker. Also, for more information about OptixEQ, please visit and register at https://www.optixeq.com/.
