the pick 4 matrix - Santa Anita Park

THE PICK 4 MATRIX By Frank R. Scatoni (follow on Twitter @ScatoniSureShot and also check out @OptixEQ) 4/21/18 NOTE: Because this analysis is posted in advance, always check my Twitter feed @ScatoniSureShot for real-time updates based on scratches and track conditions—as this analysis is written for surfaces that are fast and firm. Thanks! INTRO There are 11 races on tap for today’s Saturday card, which features a $500K Guaranteed Late Pick 4—so pace yourselves accordingly! The Pick 4 will begin in Race 8, with an approximate post time of 3:52 p.m. We’ve got a neat sequence, which features two turf routes bookending a couple of dirt races. LEG 1 (R8): Today’s first leg is one of two turf races, this one being the co-feature of the day: the 79th running of the $100K American (G3), a one-mile turf affair for horses aged 3-years-old and upward. The rails are at 0feet, and there figures to be a decent clip, so off-the-pace runners should have every chance to show their best stuff. #1 FABOZZI (10/1), the first Glatt entrant, just ran for the $75K tag, so it’s odd that he shows up in this tough spot, especially since he just ran an even third in that event, losing to a few of these. He should get a good trip tracking the pace, but he looks a cut below the best in here. GRADE: X. #2 WHAT A VIEW (6/1) is an old class horse who has a ton of early speed, but we’ll see how far he can take them after setting the pace and fading in the much tougher Kilroe Mile (G1). He definitely has races from last year that would make him very tough in here, but he’s a 7-year-old who will have to earn it today based on the anticipated quick clip. GRADE: C. #3 COLONIST (6/1) is a little interesting in here because he has a strong late kick and he should get the right pace to set up that late run. He’s cutting back from a 12-furlong event, so he’ll be super-fit, and even though he has yet to win a graded-stakes race, he’s certainly run well enough to show he belongs. The only negative is that Prat ends up elsewhere, but I think Van Dyke will fit this horse nicely. GRADE: A. #4 RITZY A. P. (12/1) is eligible for an N2X, so it’s interesting to see him show up here off a 147day layoff. As a 3-year-old, he always had a nice late kick, but he was no match for graded-stakes foes. Seemingly, he’s matured a bit for his 4-year-old debut, so I’m interested to see how he’s developed, but this seems like an ambitious spot for his comebacker. Still, he’ll get the right race shape, and you have to love Blacker’s confidence in spotting him here. GRADE: C. #5 BLACKJACKCAT (5/2), the second Glatt runner, was terrific last year, winning four in a row before finishing third in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) against the best runners in the world—so of course it was disappointing when he came back in February off a 98-day layoff to run a dull fifth as the evenmoney choice in the Thunder Road (G3). Is he headed the wrong way, or did he need that start? The fact that Kent bothers to ride back makes me think this guy will be much tighter today. GRADE: A.

#6 SAWYER’S HILL (10/1) was 7/2 in this race last year, and he faded to sixth after setting the pace. He was just claimed for $40K by Jacobson, who promptly runs this guy back against graded-stakes foes. He should be sitting right off What a View, then we’ll see if he’ll be able to fend off the comers— something I’m not sure he’ll be able to do. GRADE: X. #7 FREE ROSE (6/1), who showed great promise as a 3-year-old, just hasn’t been able to train on, having lost every start since capturing the Del Mar Derby (G2) way back in 2016. He’s run a few decent races since then, but nothing that has come close to recapturing his sophomore glory. He just ran second in an upper-level allowance, losing to one of today’s foes, so he’ll need to do better—and given the anticipated pace, I’m not sure the race-shape favors this early/presser type. GRADE: C. #8 MR. ROARY (12/1) removes the hood after showing a versatile run style throughout his career, so it will be interesting to see where Quinonez has him during the early running. He’s also a tough horse to assess form-wise because he’s capable of running some really sharp races, but he looks like he might have gone off-form after running in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1). That said, he’s making the second start of his form cycle, so maybe he’s sitting on a big race if you’re a believer. GRADE: X. #9 KENJISSTORM (3/1) looked good beating upper-allowance foes last time in his first start for D’Amato. Prat sticks around, so we’ll see if this guy can take a step forward just a few weeks after running a very good race off a 250-day layoff. Prat will have to use his tactical speed to avoid a wide journey, and that might cause some problems with so many early/presser types to his inside. I trust D’Amato and Prat, but the waters get significantly deeper today. GRADE: B. LEG 2 (R9): Today’s second leg is a $40K optional-claiming/N1X for fillies and mares going 6-furlongs on the main track. This entry-level allowance condition for female sprinters consistently produces good payoffs, so I won’t fault anyone for getting fuzzy here, but I do think the faves looks pretty solid. #1 GLORIOUS HOUR (8/1) is a bit of a grinder who switches back to dirt after running a poor race down the hill in her first try versus winners. She was 4/1 and just didn’t fire, despite having run a solid race down the hill in her maiden-breaker. Before that she showed her versatility by running second on synth and dirt, so she should handle the surface switch today—she will have to step it up, however. GRADE: C. #2 FAIR REGIS (6/1) was the 2/1 favorite at this level last time after destroying $32K claimers two back, but she stalked in a good spot and was outfinished by two others. Can she run back to that dominating $32K win in her second start at this level—or is this level just a smidge too tough for her? She should get a good tracking trip if she’s good enough. GRADE: C. #3 PRINCESS ASHLYN (6/1) was a win-machine up north last year, but her two races this year have been no good—attending the pace before weakening. That said, it’s interesting to note that she’s winless on synth, so maybe a return to dirt will help her cause, and she should be a big price in this small field. Her tactical speed means she should get a good trip in here, and there must be a reason why shrewd trainer Martin has bothered to run her here. GRADE: C. #4 PRINCESS KENDRA (12/1) is going to have a lot of work to do as a late runner stepping up in class. She’ll be grinding away, but I think she’s going to have too much to do against classier animals. GRADE: X. #5 QUEEN LAILA (5/2) makes her 4-year-old debut after running some very nice races last year and hinting at stakes ability. She hasn’t been seen in 203-days, however, so we’ll see if she’s fully cranked, but if she is, she’s very dangerous in here if she’s matured at all from her sophomore campaign. GRADE: A.

#6 POWDER (5/1) is a good exotics horse because she rarely runs a bad race on dirt, but she’s now failed twice at this level while racing on dirt, so it remains to be seen if this former $30K claimer can get the job done at this level. That said, she’s making the third start of her form cycle and Kent takes the call. GRADE: B. #7 WILD AT MIDNIGHT (8/5) looked sharp breaking her maiden last time at fifty-cents on the dollar, stalking the pace before drawing off to win easily in solid racehorse time. That was off a 300-day layoff, so she’ll have to avoid a bounce off that sharp effort—and she’ll have to face winners for the first time—but she’s drawn well, and she’s always been well-regarded in her two starts. GRADE: A. LEG 3 (R10): Today’s third leg is a competitive Cal-bred entry-level allowance contested at 8-furlongs on the main track. This isn’t the strongest group, so it wouldn’t shock me if something odd happened. #1 WILL TELL (7/2) has run two bad races in a row, 259-days apart, so you can either forgive them or take them at face value. I’ll choose to forgive them since clearly something went wrong before the layoff and maybe last time he needed one. Cerin has been on fire, and Ceballos (and his weightbreak) will be aggressive from the rail. There is other speed in here, however, so this stretch-out sprinter will have to earn it today. GRADE: B. #2 ROLLS ROYCE DEAL (15/1) just missed at this level two back, coming from the clouds to run second by 3/4s of a length. He did get a fast pace to close into that day, so it was a perfect set-up for him. He should get a clip to close into today, so it wouldn’t surprise me if he ran better than his recent sixth-place finish at this level, but everything will need to go his way. GRADE: C. #3 DULUTH (4/1), the first D’Amato entrant, just broke his maiden going long at first-asking, and that’s never an easy thing to do, so there is clearly some talent here. That said, he is a 3-year-old who not only has to face elders, but he also must face winners for the first time. He’s another who should get something to run at from off the pace, but he will need to step it up today. GRADE: B. #4 PLAIN WRAP (5/1) should get a good tracking trip, but it’s hard to back a horse who is 1-for21 with plenty of minor awards. He did just run second at this level at 11/1, so he’s usable in your exotics, especially since Sierra has heated up recently, but this guy has been stuck at this condition forever, so he’s hard to back on the win end with any confidence. GRADE: B. #5 DESERT GENERAL (6/1) usually gets a good trip and always looks in the hunt, but he’s lacked the eye of the tiger, settling for the minor awards instead of getting the job done. That said, Sean McCarthy removes the hood today and legs up Prat, so I expect this guy to run a decent race—will it be good enough, however, since he really doesn’t like to win? Tough call, but his best races are a good fit here. GRADE: A. #6 INFURIATED GARY (3/1), the second D’Amato, has won two in a row, closing from off-thepace to win against $30K maiden-claimers and then starter-foes—both while going 6.5-furlongs. His come-home times suggest he should be able to handle two turns, but he is a 3-year-old who will have to try something new today (i.e., going two turns on dirt). GRADE: B. #7 CONTINENTAL DIVIDE (5/1) is another 3-year-old who faces elders for the first time, but he’s been squaring off against some decent sophomores, so we’ll see where he stacks up today running against Cal-bred allowance types. Two back, OptixNOTES thought he ran BTL (better-than-looked) when finishing third with a very wide journey in the Cal Cup Derby, so maybe a return to dirt is what this guy needs. Still, he’ll need to pick it up. GRADE: C. #8 ACCREDITATION (10/1) is a 5-year-old who just broke his maiden in an off-the-turf affair on a wet-fast track. It was a decent effort, stalking the pace before making the lead and holding sway, but

that same trip will mean he’ll be 3- or 4-wide today, and that’s going to spell trouble on a horse who seems a bit slower than some of the others. GRADE: X. LEG 4 (R11): We end today’s 11-race card with the second turf route of the sequence, this one being a competitive $20K claimer for older fillies and mares going a mile on the lawn. The rails are at 0-feet, but there should be a lot of pace in here to set things up for the stretch-runners. #1 ADIOS CALI (20/1) is a stretch-out sprinter who adds blinkers and hops on turf for just the third time after two failed performances over that surface. She looks like a pace factor only to me. GRADE: X. #2 OK DOLL (5/1) will also be part of the early pace, but she fits well in here, having just prepped down the hill against $25K foes. Before that, she had run some decent races last year against better horses—but she will need to relax today or else she’ll get caught up in a duel. Perhaps Prat can get her to settle. GRADE: A. #3 RESKY BUSINESS (7/2) drops to this $20K level after running third twice against tougher while racing on dirt. She’s 0-for-4 on turf, but those races came against better company, so I’m sure she’ll be fine today—but she’s another one who likes to be forwardly placed, so Kent will have to be patient with other pressers in here. GRADE: A. #4 PEACH COVE (NZ) (5/1) was disappointing to me last time when she failed to fire down the hill against $25K claimers. No one else was fooled, however, as she was sent off at 9/1, despite having run well against tougher. She has races on her form that fit nicely in here, but was that last poor race a sign of more bad things to come? I’ll give her one more chance today. GRADE: B. #5 REVENUE VIRGINIUS (6/1) has run respectably against better, so she fits well at this level, but her best work of late has come sprinting on dirt. That said, she has won on turf before, and three back, she ran an okay fourth against $32K runners. What I like most about her, however, is that she should get a great tracking trip behind the speed while getting first jump on the closers. GRADE: C. #6 RYDER’S STARLIGHT (8/1) was claimed for $16K two back, where she ran an okay third going a mile on dirt. Toss her last, which was a sprint that was washed off-the-turf, and focus on the fact that Cerin is trying to get her back on turf again, where she’s run respectably. She hasn’t won in a long time, but this is her first try going long on turf for a new, hot trainer, so maybe she can wake up today. GRADE: C. #7 TODOS SANTOS (20/1) brings more speed to the proceedings, but she’s facing open claimers after a steady diet against restricted-foes, so she seems like a pace factor only to me. GRADE: X. #8 SALSITA (4/1), the first Miller runner, is a total pro, but this 7-year-old mare has definitely lost a step, failing twice in a row now to get it done at this level this year. If she can replicate her form from last year, she’ll be very tough, but the presence of bug-boy Espinoza on the turf doesn’t exactly inspire confidence (although he brings a 7-pound advantage to the table). GRADE: B. #9 LOOKINFORADANGER (6/1) has speed and adds blinkers, which doesn’t seem like a good fit with the anticipated race shape. Her two tries at this level were okay, but she had the lead each time and coughed it up. I’d give her a chance if she were the only speed, but she’s not, so she’ll need to earn it today. GRADE: X. #10 BACKINTHEACADEMY (12/1), the second Miller entrant, is an 8-year-old mare who has earned her keep over the years, but she just won for $6,250 while racing on dirt, and now she’ll have to step up in price while switching to turf, where she’s 1-for-21. Ceballos (with his 5-pound break) has been riding well, but the class hike and bad post give me pause. GRADE: X.

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