the pick 4 matrix - Santa Anita Park

THE PICK 4 MATRIX By Frank R. Scatoni (follow on Twitter @ScatoniSureShot and also check out @OptixEQ) 5/18/18 NOTE: Because this analysis is posted in advance, always check my Twitter feed @ScatoniSureShot for real-time updates based on scratches and track conditions—as this analysis is written for surfaces that are fast and firm. Thanks! INTRO Tricky sequence today because we’ve got a Maiden Special Weight with several first-time starters as leg number-two, so we’re dealing with some imperfect information. Still, let’s see what we can suss out. LEG 1 (R5): We start things off with a curious one-mile turf race (with the rails at 20-feet). It’s a $16K starterhandicap for horses who have started for a claiming price of $16K or less since May 1, 2017. There should be a quick clip in here. #1 BEAUMARCHAIS (4/1) has plenty of dirt speed, so he should be on the lead rattling off quick splits. He raced at this level three back, and finished an okay third going 9-furlongs on the lawn, a distance that was too much for him. He’ll appreciate the cutback today, but I have to think someone is going to run this guy down. GRADE: C. #2 MY MAN CHUCKLES (5/2) is the co-highweight at 126-pounds mainly because he just beat N1X foes, making him very dangerous today even though his best work has really come going down the hill. In fact, he’s 0-for-3 at today’s distance, so he’s going to have to prove he can still show the same strong late kick he’s exhibited over the hillside course. GRADE: B. #3 UNUSUAL MEETING (20/1) should be fit, cutting back from a 9-furlong race, but he hasn’t been able to beat Cal-bred $16K foes in his last two starts, and he’s facing better animals today. This 8year-old does get in at 116-pounds, and Pereira knows how to boot home some long-shots if you’re a believer. GRADE: X. #4 TOUGH IT OUT (4/1) is going to be very tough in here, since he’s the strongest finisher in the race, and he should have a fast pace to close into. I know this guy needed N3L foes to notch his last win, but it came at the $32K level, and he did it the right way. Pace makes the race, and today’s pace should flatter this Cerin trainee. GRADE: A. #5 ROARING RULE (12/1) is 0-for-3 on turf, so it’s interesting to see Aguirre spot him here in his first start off a $20K claim. I like that he’s being protected, but I don’t like that he lost at the $8K starterlevel up north while racing on turf. He should get a tracking trip and a pace to close into if you think he can transfer his solid dirt form to the lawn. GRADE: X. #6 MUCHOS BESOS (8/1) should be chasing Beaumarchais around the track, and I think that will take the starch out of this one, whose best work of late has come running against claimers on dirt. GRADE: X. #7 EL TOVAR (7/2), your co-highweight at 126-pounds, is a cool old boy who just won two in a row down the hill against Cal-bred $16K foes. That said, this 9-year-old is winless in three tries at a mile,

so we’ll see if Jacobson—who just claimed him—can get this one over the hump around two turns. His come-home times are certainly good enough to compete here at a mile, and the last time he tried two turns, he finished a close third against N1X foes. GRADE: B. #8 PICK ONE (50/1) should be a pace factor, exiting downhill sprints and a bunch of 870-yard quarter-horse races. I can’t see him sticking around late, even while getting in at a feathery 113-pounds. GRADE: X. #9 LEWIS VALE (6/1) has been doing good work on the main track against some weaker company, so we’ll see if this guy can transfer that form to the lawn while working out a good stalking trip from this tough outside post. Note that he was well-beaten at the $25K level in his first SoCal start back when he was claimed by Jacobson (two trainers ago). He has East Coast turf races that fit nicely in here, but there must be a reason he ran at the $6,250 level two back. GRADE: C. LEG 2 (R6): Today’s second leg is a Maiden Special Weight contested at 6-furlongs on the main track, and it’s chockfull of first-time starters. Lucky us! Maybe check out the double probables before Race 5 to see which of the firsters is taking action in that pool to help inform your decision on who is live here. #1 HERMANO (15/1) has a few hermanos who have won a lot of money, as his dam’s offspring have earned more than $1.1 million. That said, this guy has run twice at Ruidoso going 5.5-furlongs and has lost lengths in the lane each time. In his defense, he was facing winners, so we’ll see if he can move forward on a tougher circuit but facing maidens. I’m okay watching one off a 256-day layoff. GRADE: X. #2 CARIBBEAN (AUS) (20/1) makes his first U.S. start off a 333-day layoff after failing to raise a gallop in his native Australia. New trainer Shirreffs is infinitely patient, so I’m okay watching one, even though this guy does return with Lasix (and note: the Form has him listed as a gelding but the program doesn’t). Oh, and Espinoza, who hardly rides much these days, sees fit to ride if you’re a believer. GRADE: X. #3 HENRY COUNTY (8/1) cost $110K off a sire’s $6K stud fee, so someone liked something. Maybe because the dam has produced multiple winners, so we’ll see if Mandella will have this firster ready to go today. There are some sneaky quick works interspersed throughout the tab. GRADE: B. #4 EXPLORER (4/1) debuts for Baffert, and considering this one cost $1.25 million last year as a 2-year-old in-training, there are certainly high expectations. The dam produced multiple winners, so the pedigree is there on the bottom side, and Orb has done well so far as a sire. Three bullet works in a row followed by a solid 5-furlong work appear to have this one primed and ready for the white-haired G.O.A.T. GRADE: A. #5 HOLIDAY BAY (12/1) debuts for D’Amato, who does a fine job with his first-time starters. The dam produced a few winners and the works look perfectly fine for this guy’s first start. That said, he is a 4-year-old, so clearly he had some issues getting to the races and might need one before showing his best stuff. GRADE: C. #6 CALABASAS (12/1) debuts for Blacker, who can pop every now and again with firsters. The last two works are pretty good, indicating that this Calumet Farm homebred is ready to run today with Stevens taking the call. GRADE: B. #7 RUNAWAY SATURDAY (6/1) was 57/1 in his debut last year at Del Mar, when he had the misfortune of running third to a horse named Bolt d’Oro! He hasn’t been seen since, unfortunately, so I have to watch one, since Cassidy is currently 0-for-24 off this kind of long layoff. The presence of Desormeaux, however, is a bit interesting if you’re a believer. GRADE: C.

#8 HAYNE’S PAL (15/1) cost $130K last year at the Barretts 2-year-old sale, so he must have showed a little sizzle, but the breeding isn’t anything special (siblings’ Best Beyer: 76), and it’s tough to get a read on those San Luis Rey works. I have to watch one even though Kitchingman can surprise every now and again. GRADE: X. #9 FLAGSTAFF (8/1) cost $475K as a yearling, which is absolutely confounding to me since he’s the first foal out of an unraced dam! Someone either has a really good eye or bit into a bad apple, since this one is now 4-years-old and just making it to the races. The May 1 work is solid, and Sadler is excellent with his debut runners, but it might make sense to watch one. GRADE: C. #10 BENEFICENT (5/2) cost $700K as a yearling, presumably based on how hot Uncle Mo was at the time because the dam wasn’t much to write home about. This one needed a lot of time to get to the races, something he did as a 4-year-old just a few months ago, setting a very hot pace before weakening to finish a well-beaten second at 8/5. He’s needed 54-days to recover, but he’s got experience and is drawn well, so I suspect he’ll run a good one today. GRADE: B. #11 JULIUS (6/1), the second Baffert runner, “only” cost $600K, half the amount of his stablemate. The dam was a runner, and she’s produced two winners so far, so this one could certainly make some noise with Tapit on top as well. A couple of Baffert bullets have preceded a solid 5-furlong gate work for this event. GRADE: B. LEG 3 (R7): Today’s third leg is a competitive Cal-bred $16K optional-claiming/N1X contested at 8-furlongs on the main track. #1 INFORMALITY (12/1) had been toiling at the N2L level before Desormeaux reclaimed him and tried him at today’s level down the hill. The rail draw did him no favors, and he was well-beaten at 35/1. He should appreciate a return to the main track, and he should get a good forwardly placed trip while saving all the ground, but his 1-for-20 record doesn’t exactly get the blood pumping. GRADE: C. #2 SHAYMIN (9/2) just ran six days ago, checking in third at today’s level while going 9-furlongs on the lawn. I’m surprised they are running this 3-year-old back so quickly, but maybe they expect a little moisture in the ground since this guy’s best race (and maiden-breaker) came in an off-the-turf event on a sloppy/sealed track? At least you know he’ll be fit if you’re a believer. GRADE: C. #3 ROLLYS ROYCE DEAL (12/1) is a deep closer who should get something to run at with a few stretch-out sprinters in here, but as a deep closer, he’s going to need everything to go his way. That said, he is making the third start of his form cycle, so he should be sitting on a peak effort, and two of his three tries at this N1X statebred level aren’t so bad. GRADE: C. #4 POPULAR KID (3/1) re-adds blinkers and comes back in eight days after running against $35K restricted claimers. He’s already cleared this N1X statebred level, so he’s in for the $16K tag—and even though he lost to a few of these while racing for this $16K tag four back (as the 5/2 favorite), this is his first time in for $16K since Vallejo claimed him. As you know, that trainer is on fire. GRADE: A. #5 TRAPALANDA (5/2) caught a speed-favoring track two back when he beat a few of these at this same level, so we’ll see if he can replicate that performance on what should be a more fair track today. He then stepped up to the $40K level, pushed the pace and weakened, so he now gets class relief being back in among his friends. He’ll be part of the early pace for sure, then we’ll see if he can hold off Popular Kid, who should be running on through the lane. GRADE: B. #6 PLAIN WRAP (4/1) tracked the pace two back at this level but couldn’t get to Trapalanda, who enjoyed a forwardly placed trip on a speed-favoring track. Last time, this guy stalked the pace and finished second again at this statebred N1X level. I see no reason why he won’t be competitive again for

the exotic slots, but you have to look long and hard at his 1-for-22 record since he’s a horse who has been pretty camera-shy throughout his career. GRADE: B. #7 JAY MAKES US LAUGH (7/2) was off a little slowly from the rail last time, but he was rushed to the lead and was game to beat $20K claimers while going 6-furlongs. It was a sharp performance, but he did have the benefit of racing on a very speed-friendly surface. Pender took him, and he promptly stretches him out, so now he’ll have to carry that speed around two turns—something he’s never done before—while showing he can compete at this statebred allowance level, since the two times he tried it, he was easily handled. He’s the speed-of-the-speed, but Trapalanda should keep him honest. GRADE: B. LEG 4 (R8): We close out Friday’s card with a byzantine starter condition contested at 8-furlongs on the turf. Basically, it’s for horses (3yo and up) who have started for a claiming price of $50K or less and have never won two races (N2L)…or it’s for 3-year-olds with multiple wins who must run for the $32K tag. The rails are at 20-feet. #1 FOR HIM (12/1), the first Pender entrant, is a 3-year-old who has two wins, so he’s in for the $32K tag after just beating starter foes up north while racing 8.5-furlongs on the synth. His maidenbreaker came on dirt, so this guy is winless on turf, and in fact, his two turf races this year were pretty poor. Expect bug-boy Figueroa to blast off from the rail and hope for the best. GRADE: X. #2 HOT AMERICAN (5/2) is a 3-year-old who looked very good when breaking his maiden at first asking, going 9-furlongs on the lawn at the $50K level. You don’t see that too often, but Drysdale is one of the few who can have them win going long in their debut. He beat a next-out winner that day, so this seems like a perfect spot for his first try against winners. GRADE: A. #3 DARE TO ENTER (20/1), the second Pender runner, just beat $30K maidens while going a mile on dirt as the even-money favorite. He stalked the pace and pounced, a style that should serve this 3year-old well today—but he’ll need to do a bit better while hopping on turf for the first time since he tried the lawn back in December, when he was pasted at the MSW level. The 5-pound weight-break can’t hurt. GRADE: X. #4 WINNING ELEMENT (2/1) makes the second start of his form cycle for a hot barn who just missed with this guy at the starter level last time. He’s rarely run a bad race on turf, and he looks like a strong win-contender in here with Prat sticking around. GRADE: A. #5 TANIKO (7/2) broke his maiden two back while racing on dirt at the $50K level, and then he regressed in his first start against winners at the starter level, also racing on dirt. He switches to the lawn, where he did okay work last year and early this year. His come-home times are strong enough to be competitive here, but he does like to come from off the pace, so things will need to work out just right for him. GRADE: B. #6 DREAMS OF VALOR (6/1) makes the third start of his form cycle as a new gelding, so he should put forth a strong effort today after finding himself overmatched against $40K animals. His paper form doesn’t look all that great, but this is a career soft spot for this 4-year-old. GRADE: A. #7 ZIPPY GROOM (15/1) has run a few good races at the starter level, but his one route try on turf was just an even effort, so he’ll need to do better today against horses who have shown a decent turf of foot. GRADE: X. #8 EXTREME HEAT (15/1) looked good beating Cal-bred $50K maidens last time, coming off a 524-day layoff, but can this guy move forward again in his first try against winners and moving back on turf? He’s certainly bred for the lawn (and his one try back in 2016 wasn’t bad), and I like that he has the tactical speed to keep the rail horse honest, but it’s tough to string together two big races in a row after

such a long layoff, so I wonder if we’ll see a regression today before a step forward next time. I do like the 7-pound weight-break though. GRADE: X. #9 TASTE’S LEGEND (6/1) gets some class-relief after facing much tougher N1X types down the hill last time. He finished seventh, but he wasn’t disgraced, so don’t be too harsh on a horse who was 62/1 in that race. His maiden-breaker down the hill was nice, beating seven other foes at the $50K level, but therein lies the rub: his best work has come down the hill, and he’s never been two turns on the lawn. Schwizer is eminently capable of getting them to run well stretching out, so I’m not too worried about the distance—but I am concerned about this one getting a wide journey every step of the way. GRADE: X. SUGGESTED WAGER Well, if the #4 horses do well today, we’ll do great! As you can see the whole MATRIX costs only $71, thanks to our being so tight with our “A’s”—but if you want to spend less, $59 will get you all “A’s” with two “B’s,” while $15.50 will get you all “A’s” with one “B.” Remember: whatever you choose to do: only play what you’re comfortable spending or create your own Ticketmaker play here: http://www.drf.com/store/drf-bets-ticketmaker. For more info about OptixEQ, please visit and register at https://www.optixeq.com/. [SCROLL DOWN FOR MATRIX]

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Keep in mind: I don’t add “Also Eligibles” to the matrix, so if they draw in, be sure to include them on all of your tickets!