Apr 1, 2018 - real-time updates based on scratches and track conditionsâas this ... this gal has been stuck at this le
THE PICK 4 MATRIX By Frank R. Scatoni (follow on Twitter @ScatoniSureShot and also check out @OptixEQ) 4/1/18 NOTE: Because this analysis is posted in advance, always check my Twitter feed @ScatoniSureShot for real-time updates based on scratches and track conditions—as this analysis is written for surfaces that are fast and firm. Thanks! INTRO A nine-race card closes out the week at the Great Race Place. Let’s see if we can finish strong in this $500K Guaranteed Late Pick 4, which features several full fields and competitive races. LEG 1 (R6): The sequence gets underway with a competitive $62.5K optional-claiming/N2X for fillies and mares going 6.5-furlongs down the hill. The rails are at 10-feet, but there should be a hot pace. #1 SHY CARMELITA (12/1), the first D’Amato entrant, has never been down the hill, and that’s going to pose a problem for a gal who is going to have to use her early speed while breaking from the rail. She has been competitive at the N2X level before on dirt and going shorter on turf at Del Mar, but this is a different ballgame. GRADE: X. #2 ANGEL ALLIE (6/1) has a very nice late kick, and she’s done good work down the hill, including a decent third at this level last time. She’ll get a pace to close into today, but it’s always tough to work out a trip from these inside posts, especially with off-the-pace runners. Still, there is ability here, and the race sets up for her if she’s good enough. GRADE: B. #3 FUERZA (5/1), the first Baltas trainee, makes her first SoCal start after a modest campaign back East on the minor circuits. We’ll see where this 5-year-old mare stacks up on this circuit and while trying the hill for the first time, but do note that this ownership group has done fine work with East Coast imports, and it’s nice to see C-Nak take the call. GRADE: C. #4 BOWIE (4/1) looked scintillating two back when wiring N1X foes in her first try down the hill. Unfortunately, she couldn’t replicate that effort in her first try at this level, setting a slightly slower pace and weakening to finish fourth. Maybe she bounced off her monster effort two back, so she’ll have to move forward today without Prat in the irons, since he ends up elsewhere. GRADE: B. #5 SPIN ME A KISS (7/2) has tactical speed, so she’ll be stalking Bowie every step of the way, something she did last time when she finished second at this level, overtaking Bowie in the lane and just holding off Angel Allie for place. She’s making the third start of her form cycle, so she’s eligible to improve again, but how much starch will be taken out of her early while chasing Bowie? GRADE: B. #6 CAUSEWAY CAROLYN (12/1) makes her first start for Miller, so that must be considered, but this gal has been stuck at this level for a long time, unable to get a win up north, where the competition is a lot weaker. Miller adds the blinkers on this grinding, router-type, so we’ll see if she wakes up today. GRADE: X. #7 PRICEDTOPERFECTION (15/1) tries this course for the first time after two blah efforts around two turns, including an even fifth-place finish going a mile here last time. She was good enough at
several points to be tested against stakes foes, but her SoCal form isn’t anything to write home about. Expect her on the scene late. GRADE: X. #8 GLIDING BY (4/1), the second Baltas runner, just ran fifth in the Wishing Well, tracking a slow pace before getting outfinished late. Baltas adds blinkers today, and that could be a good thing because she was wearing them back East when she already cleared this condition (so she’s in for the tag today). She’s not impossible second off the bench, but she will need to show more oomph in the lane. GRADE: B. #9 ZAFFINAH (IRE) (5/1) attracts Prat for the injured Bejarano, and that’s a major positive for a gal who has had trouble both times recently down the hill. She should get a pace to close into, and I expect her to be flying late. Could third time be the charm? GRADE: A. LEG 2 (R7): Today’s second leg is a Cal-bred MSW for fillies and mares going 6-furlongs on the main track. #1 COCO KISSES (7/2) outran her 36/1 debut odds when finishing second against a solid winner. She should improve off that performance, and she has enough early speed to flee the rail and get good position early. GRADE: A. #2 WANDERING PATROL (6/1), the first Reddam-owned runner, debuts for Cecil, who is belowaverage with his firsters. There’s a snazzy work on March 7, but I have to side with the second-time starters here. GRADE: X. #3 WHOA NESSIE (4/1), the second Reddam-owned runner, dueled in her debut but weakened late to finish second as the 5/2 favorite. The race was taken off the turf and run at 6.5-furlongs, so I think this gal will appreciate the cutback today, since offspring of Square Eddie often have distance limitations. GRADE: B. #4 PULPITINTHESKY (5/1) makes her first start for Glatt after running a closing fourth up north. Glatt promptly adds the blinkers and legs up Prat—that’s enough for me. GRADE: A. #5 ZILLINDA (5/1) is a 4-year-old who has had plenty of chances. Two back, she caught a fast dirt track and she ran an even fourth at 9/1. She looks like she might need lesser at this point. GRADE: X. #6 WHATA FLIRT (12/1) stalked a slow pace and weakened to finish fourth in her first start for Powell, who brought her back off a 304-day layoff, so it’s quite possible this gal was just dead-short in that race. Note that she took good action in her debut when she was sent off at 2/1, so she has some ability and should move forward today. GRADE: B. #7 WARM IT UP (12/1) is a 4-year-old who looks like a worse version of Zillinda, having had a ton of chances. Two back, she was 25/1 at this same level and distance on a fast track. GRADE: X. #8 BELLA SIERRA (12/1) is a 6-year-old who is still a maiden, and that’s never a good thing— although this gal did run two of her best races recently—but both were down the hill. She has tactical speed and should get a good trip, but I have to side with the younger foes. GRADE: X. #9 GOT AN OBSESSION (8/1) showed a ton of speed as a 2-year-old, but she hasn’t been seen since August of last year. She now returns for a new barn, which prepared this gal at Turf Paradise before bringing her to Del Mar for her final tune-up for this race. She’s not impossible, but she’ll have to show she can carry her speed here. GRADE: B. #10 LOVING LYNDA (12/1) debuts for D’Amato, who can certainly have one ready at first-asking. The works don’t leap off the page, so maybe she’ll need one, but it’s hard to ignore a 17 percent debut trainer. GRADE: B.
LEG 3 (R8): Today’s third leg is a $40K optional-claiming/N1X contested at 8.5-furlongs on the main track. #1 KID CHARMING (20/1) returns a gelding after failing to make an impact several times at this level. He’ll need to be involved a lot earlier in order to have any say today. GRADE: X. #2 DEAL WITH IT DUDE (5/1) just missed at this level last time while coming off an August 2017 layoff. He ran like a short horse, so I expect him to move forward big-time today for a trainer who is excellent second off the bench. GRADE: A. #3 UPPER ROOM (12/1) makes his first SoCal start for Eurton after last being seen back East at Parx, running third in a July allowance race. He’s never run a bad race around two turns, and he can find a nice home out West, but that is a very long layoff to overcome. GRADE: B. #4 TWO THIRTY FIVE (12/1) set slow fractions on a speed-favoring track when dusting $50K starter foes while getting a 5-pound weight-break. He loses the weight-break and has to step up in class in a race that will have others pushing the pace. GRADE: X. #5 BELLERIN (6/1) set a slow pace and never looked back when breaking his maiden last time going a mile here off a brief freshening. The waters get much deeper today. GRADE: X. #6 SEAU (15/1) took forever to break his maiden, but he’s now won two in a row, albeit against much weaker company. He’s in good form, so I can’t blame the connections for taking a shot today with this half-brother to Super Saver, but he’s now facing much tougher foes. GRADE: X. #7 DONWORTH (3/1), the first Miller entrant, just missed at this level last time when finishing second, nosing out Deal With It Dude for the place money, but he was getting a 5-pound weight-break, which he loses today. He’s been consistent since Miller took over, so definitely use him in your exotics. GRADE: B. #8 CAMINO DE ESTRELLA (8/1) is a one-paced sort who should get a decent clip to close into today. The problem is: his best races have come at Los Al, while he’s struggled to threaten on the bigboy circuit. That said, he should move forward today and get a pace to close into. GRADE: C. #9 TRAPALANDA (15/1) just dusted Cal-bred N1X types in forwardly placed fashion in his first start for the O’Neill barn, which claimed him for $12.5K two back. He looks a lot like Seau—in good form but facing a stern class test while having to deal with a quick early pace. GRADE: X. #10 IKE WALKER (5/2), the second Miller runner, lost by a neck against open $40K claimers, so we’ll see what he can do while running back at the tougher optional $40K level in his first start for Miller, who took him out of that good race. There was a time when this guy was testing stakes foes, so he should fit okay in here—it’s just a matter of whether bug-boy Espinoza can give him the right trip from this difficult post. GRADE: C. #11 STARR OF QUALITY (20/1) is a Spawr reclaim, so I think it’s interesting that he is protecting him today after taking him back for $32K. I usually love this move when Spawr claims, freshens them up, and then brings them back up in class, but this guy’s form before he left was just okay against much weaker animals. He gets a stern class test today from a tough post. That said, it wouldn’t shock me if Spawr moved him up enough to pick up a slice, but he’s tough to push on the win end. GRADE: X. LEG 4 (R9): We put a bow on this week with a $75K maiden-claimer contested at 8-furlongs on the lawn with the rails out 10-feet. #1 JACK AND I (15/1) was 12/1 in his debut, where he stalked the pace before weakening badly to finish second-last. I can be forgiving since it was just his debut, but Prat ends up elsewhere. GRADE: X.
#2 UNUSUAL CHAMP (50/1) returns a gelding and adds blinkers after failing to fire against Calbred MSWs a few months ago. I’m okay watching one today, since there are some straight-maiden droppers he’ll have to contend with. GRADE: X. #3 COSA NOSTRA (IRE) (5/1) also returns a gelding and attracts Prat after failing to engage early at this very same level. He was 3/1 that day, so much more was expected. Perhaps the ultimate equipment change will help, because prior to that poor race, he was running decently against tougher. GRADE: B. #4 NATE’S ATTACK (12/1) debuted going 5.5-furlongs on dirt against restricted maidens, where he tracked the pace before weakening. He’s eligible to improve stretching out and getting on the lawn, but he’ll have to show a lot more staying power today as part of what should be an honest pace. GRADE: C. #5 GOODWILLAMBASSADOR (4/1) will definitely be part of the early pace, exiting a sprint race where he pushed the pace to finish second against straight maidens in a sprint that was washed off the turf. He did try two turns on dirt to no avail, attending the pace before weakening, but he took no action that day. The class relief should help, and it’s nice to see D’Amato try him back on turf again after the rains foiled his plan last time. GRADE: B. #6 CAMPS BAY (3/1) has run two good races at the upper maiden-claiming level, so third time could easily be the charm on a horse who just missed last time for $100K in his first try around two turns. GRADE: A. #7 HOLY GHOST (5/1) has the best late kick in the race, so he should have every chance to mow them all down, getting class relief after just running fourth at the $100K level. There should also be a fair enough pace to make this guy’s late run count. GRADE: B. #8 TRE (30/1) has been well-beaten in all of his starts, including twice at the $50K level. He does get on turf for the first time, however, if you think he can turn things around. GRADE: X. #9 BARTLETT HALL (6/1) drops in from the MSW ranks, and he should give a good account of himself cutting back from a 9-furlong race and making the third start of his form cycle. Two back, he wasn’t beaten all that much against tougher, so this is a good spot for him. He also gets a positive jock change to a much better turf rider. GRADE: B. #10 DESOLATION SOUND (15/1) returns a gelding after switching barns, leaving the Sadler barn for Eurton’s, after several poor races against tougher. He’ll need a form reversal today. GRADE: X. #11 POINT GUARD (6/1) ran well enough at a slightly higher level last time, so he fits well in here—but the post is no picnic, and he’s going to have to show more oomph in the lane to turn the tables on Camps Bay. GRADE: C. #12 PAPA JOE (5/1) (AE) couldn’t win for $50K for Chad Brown back East, so we’ll see what he can do running against pricier foes out here for Hofmans. I respect Hofmans, but I’m always leery of horses that have left the Brown barn. The blinks go on, and he does have plenty of speed, so I’m sure Garcia will look to clear and hope for the best. GRADE: C. #13 MONGOLIAN GROOM (15/1) (AE) is a first-time starter for a barn that doesn’t usually have them fully cranked. I’m fine watching one. GRADE: X. SUGGESTED WAGER We are very tight with our “A’s,” so the whole MATRIX costs a reasonable $70. If you want to spend less, $65 will get you all “A’s” with two “B’s” (though that only saves you $5), while $13 will get you all “A’s” with two “B’s.” Remember: whatever you choose to do: only play what you’re comfortable spending or
create your own Ticketmaker play here: http://www.drf.com/store/drf-bets-ticketmaker. For more info about OptixEQ, please visit and register at https://www.optixeq.com/. [SCROLL DOWN FOR MATRIX] Keep in mind: I don’t add “Also Eligibles” to the matrix, so if they draw in, be sure to include them on all of your tickets!
