Apr 6, 2018 - The rails are at 30-feet, and it looks like there should be a decent .... #3 VELVET JONES (5/1) is a grind
THE PICK 4 MATRIX By Frank R. Scatoni (follow on Twitter @ScatoniSureShot and also check out @OptixEQ) 4/6/18 NOTE: Because this analysis is posted in advance, always check my Twitter feed @ScatoniSureShot for real-time updates based on scratches and track conditions—as this analysis is written for surfaces that are fast and firm. Thanks! INTRO There looks to be a very challenging $300K Guaranteed Late Pick 4 on tap today heading into Santa Anita Derby weekend—with three female races filling out the sequence, including two unreliable conditionedclaimers. But with challenges come opportunities, so let’s see if we can do some good work today. LEG 1 (R5): Today’s sequence begins with the first of two conditioned-claimers, this one a $25K/N2L for fillies and mares going 8-furlongs on the lawn. The rails are at 30-feet, and it looks like there should be a decent clip here. #1 TWIRLING APPLES (7/2) has tactical speed, so that should allow Gutierrez to gain a good forward position from the rail. If he doesn’t get caught up in a duel and just sucks back to track inside, he should have this gal in great position turning for home—and then we’ll see how this $50K classdropper responds in the lane. I think she’ll run well. GRADE: A. #2 OH SCATTY OH (15/1) stalked the pace and pounced two back when graduating up north for $20K. She couldn’t replicate that effort in her first try against winners, but that race was washed off the turf, so don’t be too harsh. She now heads south while coming off a freshening for Miyadi, who has heated up lately. Still, she faces much tougher foes today, so I’m okay watching. GRADE: X. #3 KHALEESI (BRZ) (5/1) has shown good speed against tougher, and normally that’s a terrific asset in a race at this level—but she’ll have to show she can carry that speed while being part of a quick pace. That said, she looks logical in here getting back around two turns since Machowsky claimed her for $40K three back. GRADE: B. #4 LIL BIT DANGEROUS (15/1) stalked and pounced in a four-horse field when breaking her maiden sprinting on dirt against Cal-bred $50K foes. Her first try against winners was no good, but she was facing tougher while running down the hill. This seems like the right level for her, but we’ll see how she handles the stretch-out. I expect Espinoza to gun hard, since he hates being behind horses on the inside, and that could soften her up late in her first two-turn try. GRADE: X. #5 PADDY JEAN (7/2) just ran third against tougher while running down the hill. She set the pace from the rail and weakened late—but that race should set her up well for a stretch-out today, assuming she doesn’t get caught up in a speed duel with Khaleesi (Brz). She’s never won around two turns, but she’s run respectably enough to merit consideration here. GRADE: A. #6 PIRATE FLAG (20/1) has been well-beaten twice at this level at double-digit odds—attending the pace each time before weakening. She gets a more patient jock today, but the race shape just doesn’t favor her. GRADE: X.
#7 HOTSY DOTSY (8/1) should get a pace to close into, something she did nicely last time when finishing third at this level but while getting a 5-pound weight-break, which she loses today. She’s usable in your exotics because she tries hard and has had some trouble in her last few races, but she’ll need to show the eye of the tiger today. GRADE: C. #8 SUBIC BAY (3/1) should have won last time, but a ridiculously wide journey from start to finish compromised her chances. Unfortunately, she’s breaking from the same post today with the same jockey, bug-boy Espinoza, who is still riding turf routes like they are dirt sprints. If he can angle over, save some ground and produce a late run, however, he can give this gal a chance to make amends from last time when I really liked her chances. GRADE: B. #9 ROAD TEST (5/1) is really starting to exhibit pack-animal tendencies, since she always seems to get a good tracking trip but then fails to show the necessary oomph in the lane to pass horses when it matters most. That said, she gets a jock change to C-Nak today (since Gutierrez sides with the rail horse), so I’m sure he’ll have her save ground and then do his level best to get her to run on through the lane. GRADE: B. #10 LOOKING AT THELAKE (4/1) (AE) would look really good in here if she got in, since she’s definitely the strongest finisher in the race while also dropping to a new low level. I don’t necessarily trust Roman from this post on the turf, but this gal’s best races are good enough to win this. GRADE: B. #11 MISS NAPPER TANDY (50/1) (AE) was just pasted at the $12.5K/N2L level in her first try versus winners—and that was doing something she likes to do: sprint. Now she moves to turf and stretches out. GRADE: X. LEG 2 (R6): Today’s second leg is a $30K maiden-claimer for 3-year-olds going 6.5-furlongs on the main track. #1 MONGOLIAN GROOM (12/1) cost $12K last April, so this seems like a reasonable spot for his debut—but Ganbat has been patient with his firsters at this meet. They have been running on late, so you can use in your exotics, but I’m wary of using this guy in the top slot. GRADE: X. #2 GRINGO STAR (8/1) finally drops in for a tag after failing to get it done against Cal-bred MSWs. The relief will help, but he faces a bigger dropper to his outside. That said, his tactical speed is an asset against this bunch. GRADE: B. #3 MIDNIGHT SOOT (3/1) drops in from the MSW ranks, and that’s always something to consider, especially with a trainer like D’Amato, who is solid with this move. He has mostly been routing, but he debuted at Los Al going 6-furlongs and ran a decent third, so today’s distance should be just fine. GRADE: A. #4 SKAGIT RIVER (15/1) makes his 3-year-old debut after a mixed bag of races as a juvenile, where his best efforts came at Los Al. GRADE: X. #5 FIVETWENTYNINEFUND (15/1), the first Mulhall entrant, has been well-beaten the last few times, so he’s going to need a form reversal today. His best race came at Los Al, so he seems to need lesser. GRADE: X. #6 FABRICATION (10/1) is a good exotics key, because he always seems to be running on through the lane, picking up those checks—but he’s had plenty of chances and just hasn’t been able to get the job done. GRADE: C. #7 TROJAN TIME (12/1) makes his first start for Truman, who has been en fuego this meet. The NorCal form isn’t too bad, so I expect this guy to take a step forward for the new barn. GRADE: B.
#8 TYPHOON HARRY (15/1) came off a 188-day layoff last time and just kind of grinded along, finishing fourth at 21/1. He should move forward off that performance while retaining a 10-pound weight-break. He seems more suited for underneath though. GRADE: X. #9 ASTRO RIDER (7/2) set the pace last time and weakened to finish second when going 6furlongs. He’ll need to show more stamina today while likely getting a wide trip—unless he can clear the field; but then, if he clears the field, that means he’ll probably use too much energy early. He’s not impossible, but he’ll have to best the class dropper. GRADE: B. #10 SIERRA ECHO (12/1) was off slowly in his debut, but he kept grinding away into fast fractions to get second. He should improve off that performance, but he was definitely aided by the race flow last time. That said, he was well-backed, so someone thought this $2,200 purchase could run a little bit. He’s another one who isn’t impossible, but he’s likely to get a wide journey from out here while grinding away. GRADE: B. #11 STARSHIP CHEWY (30/1) is tough to support on paper, having lost by double-digit lengths in his recent races. GRADE: X. #12 GIT ON YOUR PULPIT (20/1) drops to this level after a blah debut effort against Cal-bred $50K types. Pereira sticks around, however, so this runner is eligible to improve against the likes of these, but will he improve enough off a pretty slow debut? GRADE: X. #13 BOURBON DUDE (7/2) cost $120K last March, and yet after two starts, he was dumped into the maiden-claiming ranks, where he’s failed to get the job done in two tries, despite strong backing. He’s obvious on paper, but can you trust him after he just faltered against $20K foes? GRADE: B. LEG 3 (R7): Today’s third leg is the second conditioned-claimer, this one for $16K/N3L females going 6-furlongs on the main track. #1 TEE EM EYE (12/1) has a decent late kick for the level, so she should be running on late given the 10-pound weight-break and the anticipated honest pace—but she’s had two chances at this level before and has come up short. Perhaps the addition of blinkers will help her cause today? GRADE: C. #2 PARTY HOSTESS (3/1) drops to this level for the first time after finding Cal-bred allowance foes way too tough for her. Before that, she took a while to clear her starter-allowance condition, but she finally did so, stalking the pace to beat eight other gals two back. I think bug-boy Espinoza will have to use her tactical speed since there will be pace to her outside, but she does bring a class edge to the table. GRADE: B. #3 VELVET JONES (5/1) is a grinder who just beat $12.5K/N2L foes last time, coming from off the pace to win easily. That was a really weak group, however, so we’ll see how she fares today against tougher and while making her first start for Dollase, who took her out of that race. That said, it’s nice to see Baze ride through the claim. GRADE: X. #4 RIZZI’S HONORS (4/1) should get a good stalking trip, and she’s run well enough at this level to be a major threat here. Frankly, I’m shocked she hasn’t cleared this level yet, but she’s run into a couple of next-out winners in her last two starts, while today’s field looks pretty weak compared to what she’s been facing. GRADE: A. #5 PARASAIL (5/1) has a ton of early speed, so she should be keen and ready to set the pace, making the second start of her form cycle while dropping to this low level for the first time. She’s also making her first start for Ellis, who already saddled a winner right after serving a 60-day suspension. If someone is going to wire the field, it would be her. GRADE: B.
#6 PLANE LUCKY (5/1) has early speed, so she should be pushing the pace, but she might have a hard time keeping up with some of the others in here, since she is moving up to the $16K price point after just losing to $12.5K claimers despite setting a glacial pace in a 6.5-furlong race. She was taken out of that heat by Papaprodromou, who has been very unlucky this meet. GRADE: X. #7 TANGLED UP IN JU (5/2) should be pretty tough in here, dropping to this level after just missing against $25K claimers last time, where she set the pace but was edged right near the wire. The outside post gives Maldonado options, so they should get the dream trip as well. The only concern is that she could bounce off that sharp effort, since she was coming off a 264-day layoff—but even if she does, she’s fast enough to win this. GRADE: A. LEG 4 (R8): We end this difficult sequence with a Maiden Special Weight for 3-year-old fillies going 9-furlongs on the lawn (with the rails at 30-feet). #1 PACIFIC STRIKE (8/5) has been burdened by outside posts, so she finally gets a good draw today for her first start with C-Nak. That’s a winning recipe. GRADE: A. #2 AHA (30/1) was off slowly in her debut down the hill, and even though she was well-beaten, she came home respectably time-wise. She adds Lasix today and is certainly bred to go two turns. It would not shock me if she ran much better today, but she might need a start off a 101-day layoff before showing her best stuff. GRADE: X. #3 PARTY DANCER (5/1) cost $175K last April, and yet she’s been massive odds in each of her two starts for a trainer who does a pretty good job in turf races—that’s a red flag. She was in the hunt last time she ran at this level going a mile, but she was outkicked late, and that’s going to be an issue at today’s 9-panels. GRADE: C. #4 RANCOR (5/2), the first Hollendorfer trainee, has a ton of early speed, so that’s something to consider in a race that doesn’t seem to have much pace on paper. Still, she’s had leads before and has given up the ghost, even while carrying five less pounds as her competition, something she doesn’t have the luxury of today. If there were other speed in here, I wouldn’t use her at all, but because there’s not, I’ll use her defensively. GRADE: C. #5 MONGOLIAN EMPIRE (8/1) ran respectably in her debut going 6.5-furlongs on dirt in a race that was washed off the turf. She finished third, but it was at the $75K level, so we’ll see how she fares today against tougher foes. Turf shouldn’t be a problem, but she cedes route experience to a few of these. GRADE: X. #6 FLUFFHEAD (8/1) looked to be out for a spin last time when going off at 13/1 in her debut. It’s never easy to win going long at first asking, so you can draw a line through that race. I love that Prat sticks around, and Falcone has been making all of the right moves this meet. GRADE: B. #7 MOVIE MOMENT (8/1) has run on late in both of her starts, so today’s added distance should be right up her road. I like the jock change from Espinoza to Franco, and I see no reason why this gal won’t be running on strongly through the lane today. GRADE: B. #8 HELIOCENTRICITY (20/1), the second Hollendorfer runner, has been well-beaten in both of her starts, so she’s really going to need to step forward today. At least the Dorf hasn’t dropped her in for a tag yet, so there’s still some hope that this $275K purchase can turn things around—but I’m not interested today. GRADE: X. #9 IT’S ALEXUS (15/1) showed speed on a wet-fast track last time before weakening badly. That was her first race with blinkers, so it was a major change from her debut race, where she was 21-lengths
off the pace at one point before grinding away to finish sixth against $75K claimers. She’ll probably run okay, but she’s behind plenty of the others on form. GRADE: X. #10 HEAVEN ESCAPE (6/1) (AE) ran on nicely last time when checking in behind Pacific Strike. The added distance should help her cause today if Blanc can work out a good trip. GRADE: B. #11 LADY LEMON DROP (12/1) (AE) was 54/1 in her debut down the hill, and even though she was well-beaten, she did run on okay through the lane, suggesting that two turns would be in her future. Still, she has a lot of improving to do to beat the top few in here. GRADE: C. #12 ROCKIN READY (2/1) (AE) cost $280K last year, and she’s run well twice to suggest that that purchase price was warranted. She stretches out after two solid efforts down the hill, where she ran on strongly through the lane. If Talamo can work out a trip, she could be very tough. GRADE: A. SUGGESTED WAGER Like Thursday’s sequence, today is another really challenging Late Pick 4. As you can see below, we’ve got a new MATRIX grid (the old one was down on Formulator), but you can still see that the whole MATRIX costs a reasonable $89. An investment of $81 will get you all “A’s” with two “B’s,” while $23 will get you all “A’s” with one “B.” Remember: whatever you choose to do: only play what you’re comfortable spending or create your own Ticketmaker play here: http://www.drf.com/store/drf-betsticketmaker. For more info about OptixEQ, please visit and register at https://www.optixeq.com/. [SCROLL DOWN FOR MATRIX]
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Keep in mind: I don’t add “Also Eligibles” to the matrix, so if they draw in, be sure to include them on all of your tickets!
