Mar 29, 2018 - #2 SUPER ECHELON (12/1) came off a 183-day layoff back in February .... Still, she'll need to be super-sh
THE PICK 4 MATRIX By Frank R. Scatoni (follow on Twitter @ScatoniSureShot and also check out @OptixEQ) 3/29/18 NOTE: Because this analysis is posted in advance, always check my Twitter feed @ScatoniSureShot for real-time updates based on scratches and track conditions—as this analysis is written for surfaces that are fast and firm. Thanks! INTRO We managed to hit one chalky Pick 4 last week in three days of racing and came tantalizingly close to another—hopefully the weather will be kinder to us this week, which I suspect it will. Let’s see what today’s $300K Guaranteed Late Pick 4 has to offer. LEG 1 (R5): We start things off with an unreliable $12.5K/N2L conditioned-claimer contested at 8-furlongs on the main track. This is such a weak condition that I wouldn’t trust anyone in here—so spread if you can afford to. #1 TACO TUESDAY (6/1) broke his maiden in wire fashion going 6-furlongs against Cal-bred $50K types. His follow-up try against winners was no good, but he was facing starter foes. He now comes off a 47-day freshening, stretching out and dropping to the near-bottom. I suppose Gonzalez will try to wire them, but the pace should be quick and this guy’s stamina will be called into question. GRADE: C. #2 SUPER ECHELON (12/1) came off a 183-day layoff back in February and has run two duds in a row, including a really poor effort at this level going 8.5-furlongs. He’s making the third start of his form cycle, and he has races from last year that definitely fit in here, but can he run back to those races? Lewis removes the hood after re-adding it last time, and the pace should favor his grinding style. GRADE: C. #3 DAD’S A GAMBLER (3/1) has been competitive at this level several times, but therein lies the rub: he’s cashed checks, but he hasn’t yet cleared this condition. Papaprodromou will try stretching him out for the first time to see if that helps things, but there should be a quick pace, so we’ll see if he can hang around late on the stretch-out. He’s obvious, but he also has the look of an underlay. GRADE: B. #4 REVEREND AL (8/1) is a little interesting in here, since he had trouble at this level two back, and last time, he was outpaced early and just had way too much to do to make any impact. I like the jock change to Roman, and I think he’ll run a better race today—but I don’t like that he was a voided-claim two back. GRADE: B. #5 LIBERATION (20/1) removes the blinks and goes two sprints to a route—but the one time he tried routing, he was no good. He does get a positive jock change today, but he’ll need to put forth a career best after several failed tries at this level. If you think he’ll handle the stretch-out though (and he’s certainly bred to), have at it. GRADE: C. #6 UNCLE BILLY (5/2) gets the reluctant nod in here since he’s dropping in from the $25K/N2L level—and Miller kills it with class-droppers. On the down side, he’s never routed before, so he’ll have to
show he can go two turns while being part of a fairly quick clip. At least he gets a 10-pound weight-break to help his cause. GRADE: A. #7 MOONLIGHT BLUE (9/5) ran too good to lose last time when doing all of the dirty work only to get headed late. He should run another good one today, but Ceballos will have to make sure he doesn’t get caught up in a quick pace with all of the stretch-out runners in here. GRADE: A. #8 YO LA TENGO (20/1) tried going with Moonlight Blue last time, and he weakened to finish sixth. Today’s pace scenario is no better than last time, so he seems up against it today. That said, he does get a positive jock change to Pereira, who could try to relax him. Still, his best races have come sprinting. GRADE: C. LEG 2 (R6): Today’s second leg is a Maiden Special Weight for 3-year-olds going 8.5-furlongs on the main track. #1 LONGDEN (GB) (2/1), the first Baffert entrant, has yet to break through in five tries, and we all know how rare that is for a Baffert runner. That said, his last two races were pretty good, where he attended the pace to finish second each time. He’ll go again from the rail and hope for the best. GRADE: B. #2 BOCEPHUS (10/1) is a Godolphin-bred colt who cost only $12K back in 2016, so not much was ever expected of him. He’s done decent work at Turf Paradise, but he’s going to need to do better than his first SoCal try, which saw him trail the field last time before passing one horse. He’ll benefit from a pace collapse, but he might need lesser. GRADE: C. #3 NEGRO LUCERO (12/1) is another who will benefit from a pace collapse, since he hasn’t shown much early speed in his two starts, but he has shown a decent kick in the lane. He just ran second going a mile in a race taken off the turf, so he’s eligible to improve today with some added ground. Still, coming from the clouds isn’t the best way to win a dirt race in California, so he is going to need some help on the front end. GRADE: C. #4 ROUTE SIX SIX (5/2) stretched out for the first time last time and ran a very good second. He had dead aim on the winner but seemed a little short. He should be much tighter today. GRADE: A. #5 JIMMY CHILA (4/1) has run third twice around two turns, unable to show the requisite stamina to get it done. Perhaps being a son of Jimmy Creed is preventing him from getting the distance or maybe he’ll benefit today with new jock C-Nak taking over. This guy has tactical speed and should get a great trip—then we’ll see about his stamina. GRADE: B. #6 PHOENIX FIRE (6/1), the second Baffert, cost $1.25 million back in 2016, yet when he debuted in February, it was on turf—not really a Baffert move. Maybe he was just trying to get some stamina in him before moving him to the main track—or maybe he’s just not that good, as he just plodded along to finish seventh in that 9-furlong turf race. The breeding says dirt should really be his game, but note that Van Dyke stayed with the rail horse. GRADE: C. #7 ORBIT RAIN (8/1) comes off a December freshening to make his 3-year-old debut, so we’ll see if he can improve off the second-place finish he ended the year with last year when going 9-furlongs on turf. His dirt races before that weren’t much, but he did have trouble in each one, so it’s tough to get a read on his ability. Right now though, he has the look of a grinder. GRADE: C. #8 FORMAL DUDE (15/1) gets on dirt for the first time after three turf races that were just okay. He’s another who is bred just fine for the dirt, so he might actually move up on the surface switch, but note that he did lose to $100K maidens last time while now he has to face tougher. He should be tighter second off the bench, so he’s usable underneath, but the win might be tricky against this group. GRADE: C.
LEG 3 (R7): Today’s third leg is a $75K optional-claiming/N1X for fillies and mares going 6.5-furlongs on the main track. #1 COGNITIVE (5/2) looked like a stakes-caliber runner when she broke her maiden at first asking, so I’m willing to draw a line through her first try against winners when she had to gun hard from the rail before predictably weakening. Unfortunately, she gets the rail draw again, so Talamo is going to have to work some magic down on the inside. Still, she showed me enough in her debut to give her another chance today, even from the rail. GRADE: A. #2 TRUE ROYALTY (4/1), the first Sadler entrant, has been off since August, when she broke her maiden at 3/5 in her second career start. I think it’s interesting that Van Dyke stays here instead of with the Baffert, so maybe that last work was as good as it looks on paper. Still, she’ll need to be super-sharp off 215-days. GRADE: B. #3 BONNEVILLE FLATS (12/1) has been mis-spotted since she joined the Hofmans barn and changed her name from Flat Drunk. We’ll see how she fares against allowance company instead of stakes foes today, but she didn’t show much in either of her SoCal races, so I’m okay watching one. GRADE: X. #4 HIGHLAND LASS (6/1), the second Sadler, looked good breaking her maiden at Los Al in December, but it took her 70-days to get back to the races, and when she did, she pushed the pace at this level before weakening at 18/1. She’s now back in 48-days, which isn’t as bad, but she’ll need to do a lot better than her previous N1X try. GRADE: C. #5 WELL HELLO (3/1) has the right style for this race—track the pace and pounce, something she did to great effect in her debut when she dusted restricted maidens going 5.5-furlongs. She faces slightly more seasoned runners today—but she should get the right trip in here if she’s good enough to move forward off her professional debut. GRADE: A. #6 BEST OF ME (2/1) also dusted restricted maidens in her debut, pushing the pace before drawing off to win easily under a 5-pound bug. She loses the weight-break today, but she’s drawn favorably, which will give now-journeyman rider Roman options. We’ll see how she handles an extra furlong off her 5.5-furlong win, but she’s bred to do anything, making her a logical contender right back. GRADE: B. LEG 4 (R8): Today’s nightcap could be the key to the whole sequence, since we’ve got a very competitive $50K open-claimer contested at 8-furlongs on the lawn. Unfortunately, the rails are at 30-feet, so even though 11 are entered, only nine will go postward. There should be a quick clip. #1 SPANISH HOMBRE (7/2) is in very good form right now, but he did find higher-level allowance types too much for him last time when he stalked in a good spot but was outfinished late. He gets classrelief today and puts the hood back on, and the cozy inside post means he gets to save all of the ground. Prat takes the call, and you know he’ll have this guy in a perfect tracking spot just waiting to pounce. GRADE: B. #2 DEFIANTLY (6/1), the first Baltas charge, has run respectably at the $40K level, but he now moves up in class and has to face a horse who beat him pretty easily two back. He’s also had some physical issues, but it looks like Baltas has given him a little time after just claiming him for $40K back in January. This barn does excellent work with its turf runners, so don’t be surprised if this animal showed up big-time today, especially with the re-addition of blinkers. GRADE: B.
#3 REIGN ON (GB) (20/1) has one stateside win, and it came going 5-furlongs on the turf at Del Mar against $40K types. His two U.S. route tries were both even efforts, where he failed to kick on in the lane, so I’m not sure that he’ll move forward today on the stretch-out after two poor efforts against similar types down the hill. He should be a pace factor, however. GRADE: X. #4 INCENSED (6/1), the first Miller entrant, should be pushing the pace, exiting sprint races, but then we’ll see if he can hang around late. There must be a reason this 5-year-old has never routed in his career, so he’s tough to back against proven milers, but he’s run well against $40K types, so he definitely fits in here class-wise. That said, he seems like a pace factor to me. GRADE: X. #5 CONQUEST TYPHOON (3/1), the second Miller, should get a perfect tracking trip for his new barn, which took him for $40K out of a Golden Gate race. He’s been freshened since that November heat, so you know Miller will bring him back ready to run and at the level where he belongs. Back in August, this guy beat N2X types at Del Mar, so he brings a class edge to the table. GRADE: A. #6 GUSTNADO (20/1) found $40K types too much for him last time, so he’s going to need to do much better today. I don’t like the fact that he hasn’t been able to string together races, and it seems he’s gone backwards ever since he blew the doors off N2X foes in his first SoCal start last year. GRADE: X. #7 LUCKY BRYAN (8/1) is a tough nut to crack because he has races on his form that would destroy these—but they came a long time ago, way back in 2016. He’s coming off a 571-day layoff, and he’s showing up for a tag despite having run well against graded-stakes types. Who knows what to expect, but the fact that he’s been working at Los Al for his return makes me want to watch one. GRADE: C. #8 A RED TIE DAY (5/1) just beat $32K foes, so we’ll see if this 8-year-old can stand the raise for a new barn that claimed him out of that race. There was a time when this old boy was competitive in graded-stakes races, so you have to like the confidence Jacobson has shown by moving him up in class off a brief freshening—but there must have been a reason why Baltas was willing to lose this pro for $32K. GRADE: C. #9 ROYAL ALBERT HALL (GB) (9/2), the second Baltas trainee, has picked up a lot of checks throughout his career, but he’s been a bit camera-shy, settling for the minor awards instead of getting the win. He definitely has pack-animal tendencies, so even though he’s getting class-relief today and adding blinkers, he’ll need to show a will to pass horses when the real running starts. GRADE: C. #10 RONALD R (IRE) (5/1) (AE) has a very strong late kick, and he should get a pace to show it after just finishing third against tougher N2X types. The post and rail-settings are no picnic, however, so Maragh will have to do everything right—but don’t be surprised if this guy comes flying late for the win. GRADE: B. #11 ANY QUESTIONS (8/1) (AE), the second Jacobson runner, is winless since coming to SoCal, and that includes an even sixth against $40K types back in January (though he did have trouble). It’s nice to see Desormeaux string along, however, so maybe this guy is ready to run a good one after getting pasted in the Super Bowl Handicap. Still, there are hurdles to overcome, least of which is the tough post. GRADE: X. SUGGESTED WAGER We’ve got a very manageable sequence here, with the entire MATRIX costing only $61. If you want to spend less, $40 will get you all “A’s” with two “B’s,” while $14 will get you all “A’s” with one “B.” Remember: whatever you choose to do: only play what you’re comfortable spending or create your own
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