Apr 7, 2018 - real-time updates based on scratches and track conditionsâas this analysis is ... always, the race is ru
THE PICK 4 MATRIX By Frank R. Scatoni (follow on Twitter @ScatoniSureShot and also check out @OptixEQ) 4/7/18 NOTE: Because this analysis is posted in advance, always check my Twitter feed @ScatoniSureShot for real-time updates based on scratches and track conditions—as this analysis is written for surfaces that are fast and firm. Thanks! INTRO What an epic day of racing lined up for today’s Santa Anita Derby card, featuring seven stakes races, five of which are graded, and a $1 Million Guaranteed Late Pick 4 pool. Today’s Pick 4 sequence consists of three stakes races, so there is no lack of quality horses to choose from. Note that there is a 13-race card, so first post is 11:30 a.m.—but also note that the last race (Race 13) is an Arabian race, which won’t be part of the standard Thoroughbred wagering menu, so the Late Pick 4 will begin in Race 9, with an approximate post of 4:12 p.m., and conclude in Race 12. Got it? Good. Let’s dig in! LEG 1 (R9): Let’s jump right into today’s $1 Million Guaranteed Late Pick 4 with the featured race on the program, the $1,000,000 Santa Anita Derby (G1), California’s steppingstone to the first Saturday in May. As always, the race is run at 9-furlongs on the main track, and this year’s renewal features a showdown between an established graded-stakes type versus a young upstart trained by Baffert. Which sophomore will prevail? #1 INSTILLED REGARD (5/1) will be the forgotten horse amidst this epic showdown between Bolt d’Oro and Justify, but this $1,050,000 purchase has done nothing wrong in his six-race career. He’s a Grade 3 winner who has been very solid around two turns, and he should get a good stalking trip while saving all of the ground at the rail—something he wasn’t able to do in his last few races. Castellano understandably sticks with Bolt, but it’s interesting to see Rosario take the call. If the big two falter, he’s the most likely to pick up the pieces. GRADE: C. #2 ORBIT RAIN (50/1), the first Ruis entrant, is still a maiden whose best race came on turf, when he finished second last time to an excellent turf horse named River Boyne (GB). This guy is certainly bred to go long on dirt, however, if you think he can grind away to pick up a minor award—but it really looks like Ruis entered this one to help fill the race. GRADE: X. #3 BOLT D’ORO (6/5), the second Ruis runner, is a legitimate racehorse, and if not for a ridiculously wide journey in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), he might be undefeated. He was put up via DQ last time when he couldn’t get by McKinzie due to plenty of bumping in the lane in the San Felipe (G2), but he also looked like a dead-short horse who desperately needed that race. There’s no denying this guy’s talent, and he clearly has a seasoning edge over the interloper Justify—plus, Castellano is no dummy, and this is his Derby horse. GRADE: A. #4 JIMMY CHILA (30/1) is still a maiden who has run respectably in each one of his starts to pick up some checks, but he’s also lost lengths in the lane in each one of his starts as well. He seems like a
pace factor to me, especially since these Jimmy Creeds seem better suited to shorter distances. GRADE: X. #5 PEPE TONO (20/1) is a deep closer who will benefit if there’s a quick pace, but even if there is one, I’m not sure he’s good enough to outfinish the big boys. He looked good breaking his maiden three back, but he got a blazing-fast pace to close into on a closer-friendly track—and he had a 5-pound weight-break to boot. Since then, he’s just grinded along twice against winners, so he seems up against it today against some very classy animals. GRADE: X. #6 JUSTIFY (4/5) has been nothing short of brilliant in his two-race career, but he’s unproven against quality animals, having beaten maidens and N1X types in his only two starts. He’s obviously in good hands with Baffert, so sky is the limit for this son of Scat Daddy. He’ll have to make the leap from a mile to 9-furlongs today, but he’s certainly bred to do that no problem. I’m excited to see him run, but he’ll have to answer some questions today while Bolt d’Oro has already answered the call against the best in this division. GRADE: B. #7 CORE BELIEFS (20/1) cost $350K last year, so there are expectations here, so it’s no surprise that he looked good breaking his maiden last time when stretching out for the first time around two turns after two decent sprint races. That said, he wired a short field on a speed-friendly track, so his number is probably a little inflated. Win-rider Smith understandably chooses Justify, who will have to shirk off this guy’s pressure early. Baze has been riding well, and there is definitely some upside here on this son of Quality Road, but he’ll need to prove he belongs today. GRADE: X. LEG 2 (R10): Today’s second leg is a very competitive renewal of the $200K Royal Heroine (G2), a one-mile turf affair for older fillies and mares. The rails are at 0-feet, and there figures to be a pretty decent clip considering the presence of speedball Enola Gray, who makes her long-awaited return off a 280-day absence. If you are singling Bolt and/or Justify (or using both) in Leg 1, you probably want to spread wide here to stay alive in this competitive heat. #1 INSTANT REFLEX (20/1), the first Cassidy entrant, is a lightly raced 4-year-old who has done decent work sprinting, but the only time she tried two turns, she set the pace and weakened. I’m afraid a similar fate awaits her today with plenty of heat to her outside and with a jock who wants no part of being stuck inside, so he’ll gun hard and hope for the best. I almost wonder if she’s in here to set things up for her European stablemate. Look for her next time back down the hill. GRADE: X. #2 SOPHIE P (12/1), the second Cassidy runner, makes her first U.S. start after doing decent work in the minor leagues overseas, where she won two stakes at Musselburgh. We’ll see how she stacks up against American graded-stakes company, but her trouble lines suggest she’ll be coming from off the pace, as does the presence of Van Dyke, who is a very patient rider. The pace should favor her today if she’s ready to fire (and if she’s good enough) off a 180-day layoff. GRADE: B. #3 BEAU RECALL (IRE) (4/1) has always had a nice late kick, so I was disappointed when she came up flat in the American Oaks (G1) two back, failing to show her customary stretch run in that 10furlong race. She then came back after that to run on late in the Las Cienegas (G3) down the hill, at a distance that was too short for her. Today’s mile distance will be much more to her liking, and there should be plenty of heat to set up her solid stretch run. It’s also interesting to see Rosario take the call, and he’s deadly with off-the-pace runners. GRADE: A. #4 MIDNIGHT CROSSING (IRE) (6/1) is a Grade 3 winner who looked good wiring five other gals in the Frankel (G3) when making her first start for the Baltas barn here in SoCal. She got away with a really slow pace, however, so it’s no surprise that she’s faltered twice since then in races that have had
more honest paces. Fortunately, she doesn’t necessarily need the lead, but she does like to be forwardly placed in a race that expects to have quick fractions. I never discount a Baltas turf mare, but it’s hard to overlook her 0-for-5 record at a mile. GRADE: B. #5 THUNDERING SKY (5/1) should get a good tracking trip, just like she did last time when she ran second to a next-out winner in the Buena Vista (G2). We’ll see if she can replicate that effort, since she seems to be an in-and-outer, but she seems eminently logical in here based on her Grade 2 form and the projected trip she should get under Maragh. GRADE: B. #6 ENOLA GRAY (3/1) has brilliant speed, something she showed off to great effect last time when setting a blazing pace in the Wilshire (G3) yet still holding sway to win. In fact, this gal is so talented that she’s only finished out of the money once in 11 career starts—so you know D’Amato has spotted her very well in order to showcase her ability. The concern, however, is that she hasn’t been seen since that Wilshire (G3) victory 280-days ago, so I’m sure she’ll be very keen off the bench—and that could be her undoing with others looking to be part of the early pace. No doubt she’s the speed of the speed, but will she be able to carry it the whole today against some quality gals? GRADE: B. #7 MADAME STRIPES (ARG) (7/2) is usually pretty consistent, which is why it was disappointing when she ran a dud last time in the Beuna Vista (G2), despite going off at 5/2. Before that, she looked great winning the Megahertz (G3), so which lady shows up today? At least Desormeaux rides her back off that poor effort, so maybe last time just wasn’t her day. She should get the right set up to flatter her tracking style, so she should have every chance to make amends today. GRADE: A. #8 MONGOLIAN SHOPPER (15/1) has done excellent work down the hill, winning three in a row against lesser before running into much better company last time in the Mizdirection. She was exposed that day, and now the waters get even deeper since she’ll have to try and carry her speed a route of ground and with other speed in the race. She seems like a pace factor only. GRADE: X. #9 SASSY LITTLE LILA (6/1) has speed, so Castellano should be able to get her over to stalk the pace behind Enola Gray and Mongolian Shopper—but that could also be a problem, since this gal’s three wins have all come on the lead, which she won’t have today. Two back, she got a perfect stalking position in the Buena Vista (G2) but was unable to outkick Thundering Sky in the lane, while last time, she set a loose lead but was run down by Midnight Crossing. This gal definitely has some ability, but unless she can excel with stalking tactics today, she’s up against it. GRADE: B. LEG 3 (R11): Today’s third leg is the sister race to the Santa Anita Derby (G1): the 79th running of the $400K Santa Anita Oaks (G1), an 8.5-furlong main-track affair for 3-year-old fillies. I’ve always thought Midnight Bisou was a legit racehorse, so we’ll see if she can continue to progress as a top gal in her division. #1 FIRST DUDETTE (30/1) has run well in all of her starts, including her recent victory against N1X foes in her first start here in SoCal for Koriner. She dueled early and held sway late in that 7-furlong race, but now she has to face tougher foes while stretching out for the first time. Her breeding suggests she’ll handle two turns, but there are others in here who should be pushing the pace. GRADE: X. #2 SPRING LILY (6/1) dueled in the Santa Ysabel (G3) on a wet-fast/sealed track before getting inhaled by Midnight Bisou. That was her first try around two turns, so I can be forgiving of that effort, but it seems unlikely that she’s going to be able to wire the field today with a stretch-out sprinter to her inside and some other pace pressure to her outside. GRADE: X. #3 MIDNIGHT BISOU (6/5) is two noses away from being undefeated, and she is clearly the horse to beat, showing that today’s distance was no problem for her last time when she dusted a short field in the Santa Ysabel (G3) to prepare for this event. She should get a good tracking trip off a decent
clip, and then she’ll produce her solid stretch run, making her very dangerous again today as a legitimate favorite. GRADE: A. #4 FOOL’S PARADISE (30/1) was 20/1 last time when she broke her maiden in her first try around two turns, clearly outrunning her odds by stalking the pace and pouncing late for a nice victory. The waters get much deeper today, but she should get a similar trip if you think she can continue to progress in just her fourth career start. GRADE: X. #5 FINESS BERE (FR) (15/1) has shown a pretty strong late kick on the turf, but she’s had some fast paces to close into and still hasn’t been able to get it done on what is seemingly her preferred surface. In a bizzaro-world move, Baffert will now try this turf horse on dirt to see if perhaps a surface switch can help her cause. Normally, we see it the other way around: Baffert will take underachieving dirt horses and try them on turf as a last resort. Is this a last resort move for this two-time turf winner or does Baffert know something? Expect her on the scene late if she takes to the dirt. GRADE: X. #6 EXUBERANCE (12/1) is a bit of a grinder who has done decent work round two turns, including a nice second to Dream Tree in the Las Virgenes (G2) back in February. Surely, she can build off that performance, and she should get a pace to grind away at—but will she outkick Midnight Bisou? Unlikely, but she’s usable underneath. GRADE: C. #7 SPECTATOR (3/1) brings class to the proceedings, since she was a Grade 2 winner as a juvenile, so it will be interesting to see what she does today, stretching out for the first time after looking very good beating older N2X foes going 6.5-furlongs. I’m not sure her breeding with Jimmy Creed on top will allow her to excel as the distances get longer, but she’s in good hands with D’Amato, and 8.5-furlongs should be just at the outer-limits of what she can run. She should look good turning for home—then we’ll see what she’s got. GRADE: B. #8 WE ALL HAVE DREAMS (12/1) destroyed seven other maidens last time when attending the pace before drawing off to win on a muddy/sealed track. That was a nice race, since she was part of a very quick pace, but she was also the 6/5 favorite, so she was expected to win. The waters get deeper today, but there is upside her on a Shackleford filly who has only had two starts. Maybe with more experience? GRADE: X. #9 THIRTEEN SQUARED (9/2), the second Baffert runner, dueled through slow splits last time in the Santa Ysabel (G3) and ran a valiant second, but she was no match for Midnight Bisou, who passed her quite comfortably. This gal is likely to get the same trip today except with a much faster pace. GRADE: X. LEG 4 (R12): We close out this quality card with a $62.5K optional-claiming/N2X for older fillies and mares going 9furlongs on the lawn (with the rails at 0-feet). This is a decent group, and you would be wise to spread here if you are especially tight in Legs 1 and 3. #1 LASEEN (IRE) (3/1) was a top pick for me last time in the Santa Ana (G2), but two steps out of the gate, she decided she wanted no part of racing that day. Maybe because it was her first try with Desormeaux, and she couldn’t be bothered? I have no idea because she’s never acted that way before. Today, she’s reunited with Espinoza, who knows her well. Hopefully he won’t panic from this inside position and push her too hard early, since this gal likes to track the pace before coming on for her run. GRADE: A. #2 PANTSONFIRE (IRE) (5/2), the first Baltas entrant, had too much to do last time going a mile at this level, so today’s added ground should help her cause, since she looked good clearing her N1X
hurdle at today’s distance. She’ll need something to close into, but she’s an honest sort who should be competitive in here. GRADE: A. #3 STARLITE STYLE (30/1) used to have a very strong late kick, but she was always too far back to have any real say at this level. She’s also off-form right now, so it’s hard to see how she’s going to be competitive against this lot. On the plus side, if you think she can recapture her 2017 form, she’s usable for a slice underneath. GRADE: X. #4 MS WAKAYA (15/1) should get a great forwardly placed trip with not much speed in here, but she’s a Cal-bred who cleared her N1X hurdle in an off-the-turf sprint race two back. She acts more like a sprinter/miler type, so I’m not sure how she’ll respond going this far for the first time, but at least you know she’ll be in the hunt turning for home. GRADE: X. #5 MAJESTIC ANGEL (8/1) gets class-relief after facing off against stakes foes in the Santa Ana (G2), where she ran an even sixth. She’s making the second start of her form cycle, so she should move forward today while getting class-relief, but do note that she hasn’t won since leaving the minor leagues last spring. GRADE: C. #6 DALSAROS (8/1) tries two turns on turf for the first time after a steady diet of route races on the main track, including a try in the Santa Margarita (G1), where she faced off against some very salty ladies. Before that, she dueled early and got overtaken late while running second at this level on dirt. She’s only been on turf once—her maiden voyage down the hill, where she stalked and weakened. We’ll see how she handles the green, but she brings a strong pace advantage to the table, since there isn’t much speed in here at all. GRADE: B. #7 THE TULIP (IRE) (4/1) looked very good beating N1X types last time, coming from off the pace and finishing nicely to beat eight other foes going a mile. Her come-home time in that race suggests that 9-panels won’t be an issue at all—and you can draw a line through her 9-furlong race two back when she took a weird step and wasn’t persevered with. She’s a nice lady. GRADE: A. #8 HACHI (CHI) (12/1) is a 5-year-old mare who makes her first U.S. start for Mandella after plying her trade in her native Chile, where she was competitive against graded-stakes foes. Mandella has always been terrific with his South American imports, so you must consider this new face in the crowd, especially with Castellano hopping on board. GRADE: B. #9 ARCH OF TROY (12/1) showed some nice stretch runs last year when facing her own age group. Her one try this year, however, was no good, stalking the pace before weakening. Perhaps she needed a start after an October layoff, but that last race wasn’t very good, and she’s now needed another 90-days to recoup from that performance. She’s not impossible with her very best, but that might come a start or two later. GRADE: X. #10 QUEEN BLOSSOM (IRE) (4/1), the second Baltas runner, shortens up after a steady diet of marathon races, including a fifth-place finish in the Astra back in January when she was wide the whole way in a 12-furlong race. I like that Baltas has regrouped and is now racing her at a level where she can win—since she has races from back East at this level that would look very good here. The only concern is if she’s too far back coming out of those longer races—and as mentioned, there isn’t much pace in here. GRADE: A. SUGGESTED WAGER This is a very manageable sequence at $66 today for the whole MATRIX, but we do have two short prices as singles, so you might want to double-up on your strongest opinions and play those combos multiple times. If you want to invest less, $57 will get you all “A’s” with two “B’s,” while $24 will get you all “A’s” with one “B.” Remember: whatever you choose to do: only play what you’re comfortable
spending or create your own Ticketmaker play here: http://www.drf.com/store/drf-bets-ticketmaker. For more info about OptixEQ, please visit and register at https://www.optixeq.com/. [SCROLL DOWN FOR MATRIX] Keep in mind: I don’t add “Also Eligibles” to the matrix, so if they draw in, be sure to include them on all of your tickets!
