THE PICK 4 MATRIX

THE PICK 4 MATRIX By Frank R. Scatoni (follow on Twitter @ScatoniSureShot and also check out @OptixEQ) 4/14/18 NOTE: Because this analysis is posted in advance, always check my Twitter feed @ScatoniSureShot for real-time updates based on scratches and track conditions—as this analysis is written for surfaces that are fast and firm. Thanks! INTRO There are 11 races on tap for today’s Saturday card, which features a $500K Guaranteed Late Pick 4—so pace yourselves accordingly! The Pick 4 will begin in Race 8, with an approximate post time of 3:52 p.m. LEG 1 (R8): We start things off with a competitive Cal-bred $16K optional-claiming/N1X contested at one mile on the lawn. Fourteen runners have been entered, but with the rails at 30-feet, only nine will greet the starter. There should be a square pace in here. #1 LORD ADMIRAL (20/1) has tactical speed, so Blanc should work out a good trip from the rail— but this guy has never crossed the wire first, and his stamina has been called into question the two times he’s finished his races against winners. GRADE: X. #2 FAST AS CASS (15/1) has been dying to get back on turf, but bad weather prompted his last two races to be moved off the turf. Two back, he looked good beating maidens on a sealed main track, but he failed to run on in his first try versus winners after pushing a hot pace (also on a sealed track). He’s a 3-year-old who should be in the vanguard early; I’m not so sure about late. GRADE: X. #3 CALIFORNIA JOURNEY (6/1) came off a 329-day layoff to run half a race against much tougher foes in his first start for the Chew barn. Seemingly, he should be fit and ready to run in this way more sensible spot. Note that he won going long at first-asking, so he’s quite capable of moving forward today with that tune-up race under his belt, but he will need a career-best. GRADE: C. #4 HARDBOOT (20/1) is a 3-year-old who didn’t do much running in his first try against elders last time, although the race was washed off the turf. It’s nice to see C-Nak stick around—and perhaps the removal of the hood will help his cause today—but he’ll probably be grinding away late with a minor award as the ceiling. GRADE: X. #5 TULE FOG (4/1) has sharp early speed, but he hasn’t been able to sustain it while going a route of ground, with his only win coming down the hill. That said, he has been facing much tougher in his two route tries, so he gets some class-relief today. He’ll be in the hunt turning for home, then we’ll see where he is at the wire. GRADE: B. #6 KINGS RIVER KING (5/2) looks to be sitting on a peak effort, making the second start of his form cycle after running on nicely to finish fourth down the hill while coming off a 225-day layoff. He’s done good work around two turns, so he should be ready to roll today. GRADE: A. #7 LYMEBYRD (4/1) should be sitting right off Tule Fog early, since he has the tactical speed to get a forwardly placed trip in here. Toss his last try in the mud, where he was hung wide throughout, and focus on his head defeat at this level and on this surface back in October. GRADE: B.

#8 CROISSANT (12/1) is a 3-year-old who set the pace last time in the mud before packing it in. His only win came down the hill, and the one time he tried a mile on turf, he was forwardly placed before weakening. GRADE: X. #9 RAVEN CREEK (3/1) is also a 3-year-old, but he made an early move into a hot pace last time before finishing second in the mud. That’s usually a good indicator of improvement, provided he gets a better-timed ride today. His tactical speed should allow Baze to angle over and get position, but with the rails out so far, he’s likely to be hooked at least 3-wide most of the way. GRADE: B. #10 WAYA ED (10/1) (AE) makes his first start on turf after two decent races on synth. He’s a 3year-old who will have to face winners for the first time while making his first start for a new barn. The post is no picnic, so he’ll probably have to be used early to get good position. GRADE: C. #11 SIX POINT RACK (4/1) (AE) has run well enough at this level to pick up checks, so he’s eminently usable in your exotics, but Conner will have to work out the right trip. His best chance would be to angle over while unhurried early before producing a late run. GRADE: B. #12 ALSATIAN (8/1) (AE) looks poised for a step forward after putting in a mild late bid down the hill while coming off an August layoff. Drysdale replaces Ceballos with C-Nak, so you know he means business. That said, this guy has had several chances at this level, so C-Nak will have to be the difference-maker on a horse who has a tendency to settle for the minor awards. GRADE: B. #13 BOLD PAPA (6/1) (AE) made the thirteenth time be the charm, finally breaking his maiden as the 5/2 favorite. He usually runs an honest race, so he’s usable in your exotics, but he’ll need to show he can replicate that solid maiden win while facing winners for the first time. GRADE: C. #14 GOING FOR THE WIN (10/1) (AE) is a deep closer who should get a pace to close into, so if Maldonado can somehow angle over and save ground, this guy should be running on through the lane for hot trainer Morey, who just missed with this guy last time at 15/1 against $20K claimers. GRADE: C. LEG 2 (R9): Today’s second leg is an evenly matched $12,500 claimer for older horses going 6-furlongs on the main track. While there are several forwardly placed runners, there doesn’t figure to be a hot pace. #1 GIANT MARK (20/1) comes off a brief freshening after failing to get it done against similar last time while having to break from the rail going 6.5-furlongs. His race before that was solid, but expect him on the scene late if at all. GRADE: X. #2 LOUDEN’S GRAY (4/1) is coming off a 331-day layoff after being a voided $10K claim last May—not a good sign. That said, his races before he hit the shelf would be very tough in here, so if you think he’s the same horse, have at it, especially if you like the fact that Garcia is bringing him back at a price higher than when he hit the shelf. GRADE: C. #3 WELL MEASURED (3/1), the first Carava entrant, has tactical speed, but he’s had good trips before while getting a 5-pound weight-break and hasn’t been able to do the business. He loses that weight-break today, so he’ll have to show he can exhibit more oomph in the lane without the benefit of a bug. At least Roman stays here instead of with the stablemate. GRADE: B. #4 NATIVE TREASURE (12/1), the second Carava charge, is a late runner who drops to this level after running an uncharacteristically poor race while facing Cal-bred $16K claimers last time. Interestingly, it was his first start without a 5-pound weight-break after Roman had ridden him five previous times while getting an advantage. Roman stays with the stablemate, and there is no weightbreak. GRADE: C. #5 HERE AND THERE (8/1) is a little interesting on the cutback, since he was very rank last time going 8.5-furlongs and wanted no part of that route against tougher $16K claimers. Before that, he

looked very good beating $10K claimers, so seemingly this is the right level for him—and Metz and Saratoga West have done good work together recently, almost springing a monster upset on Sunday with Bargaining at 22/1. GRADE: B. #6 CLASSICO (4/1) should get a good stalking trip, and his last two races are certainly a good fit in here—but it is odd that Glatt claimed him for $16K yet is running him for a lesser tag today. Still, Franco rides through the claim, and this guy’s best races are very good for this level. GRADE: A. #7 FINALLYGOTABENTLEY (20/1) is an 8-year-old who was always pretty honest down at this level, but ever since Meredith reclaimed him off Hollendorfer, he’s gone the wrong way. Can this old boy recapture some of his old glory? Maybe if he drops another two levels next time. GRADE: X. #8 MESA SKY (6/1) is in very good form right now, having been competitive in each of his races for Jacobson, who took him off Sadler three back for $6,250—and therein lies the rub: he’s been facing much weaker competition. A repeat of his $8K win just six days ago would make him competitive, but the waters do get deeper today. GRADE: B. #9 JUNIOR GILLIAM (7/2) is a deep closer who should be running on through the lane, but he usually has too much to do, which was the case last time against Cal-bred $16K claimers, where he ran on late to finish third. He’s a good exotics horse, but everything will have to go just right for him to find the wire first. GRADE: B. LEG 3 (R10): Today’s third leg is a solid $62.5K optional-claiming/N2X for older horses going one mile on the lawn (with the rails at 30-feet). There should be an honest pace. #1 AQUAPHOBIA (3/1) showed off a nice late kick two back when winning the Super Bowl Handicap, carrying 127-pounds. Toss his next race when he was up on the pace going 12-furlongs in the San Luis Rey (G2), and you’re looking at a runner who should get a great tracking trip inside under CNak. GRADE: A. #2 BEACH VIEW (6/1) is coming off a 351-day layoff, so he’ll have to show he can be at his best against sharper animals. Even though he has a win at a mile, all of his SoCal races under Powell have come going longer, so maybe this is a prep for something farther in start number-two off the bench. GRADE: C. #3 WELL DEVELOPED (4/1), the first Gallagher entrant, has won three in a row with perfect forwardly placed trips. He’ll get another forwardly placed trip today, but I think the pace will be faster than when he wired N1X foes last time as the tepid 7/2 choice. He’s too sharp to ignore, but I like others better. GRADE: C. #4 CAFE FLAVOR (15/1), the second Gallagher runner, will be the late-running part of the uncoupled entry, since he’s been running longer distances and doing it from off the pace. He’s shown a decent late kick and should have something to close into, but Blanc will have to time things to perfection. GRADE: C. #5 RIVER ECHO (GB) (15/1) hops back on turf for the first time since 2016 when he beat starter foes at Del Mar in stalk-and-pounce fashion. He has plenty of speed, so he’ll be in the vanguard early, but I’m not sure how tough he’ll be late since he’s always in a good spot yet always gets outfinished by others. Maybe the return to turf will help his cause, since he’s now failed seven times at this level while racing on dirt. Use him in your exotics. GRADE: C. #6 AIR VICE MARSHAL (5/2) also has speed, something he’s used on dirt recently, where he’s run second twice at this level. His last win came on the lawn, however, and he showed he could at least stalk, so Smith will have options in here drawn outside other speed. He’s logical. GRADE: A.

#7 PLAY HARD TO GET (8/1) wired seven other N2X foes two back when going 9-furlongs, but we all know it’s much tougher to wire the field at a mile, especially with others who like to attend the pace. Baze will probably try and get this guy to settle today, which is something he used to be able to do back in the day—but his last win came on the lead, and that’s not going to happen today. GRADE: B. #8 UNAPOLOGETIC (8/1) should get the right trip in here, just tracking the pace and getting first run on the closers—but note that Smith sticks with another after this guy stalked and weakened at this level last time while going 9-panels. He fits here, but he will need to show more oomph in the lane today. GRADE: B. #9 HORSE GREEDY (12/1) is a stretch-out sprinter who should spice up the pace proceedings. The one time he went two turns on turf, he attended the pace and was overtaken. This seems like a prep for a turnback on dirt next time. GRADE: X. #10 TOUCHED BY AUTISM (30/1) (AE) just ran seventh at this level down the hill, and nothing in that race made me think he would appreciate any added distance today. GRADE: X. LEG 4 (R11): Today’s nightcap is a Cal-bred $50K maiden-claimer contested at 5.5-furlongs on the main track. #1 THE TATTOO KID (20/1) was 11/1 in his debut for $9K at Los Al, where he finished fifth with a troubled trip. This seems like an ambitious spot, however. GRADE: X. #2 RUSTIC CANYON (6/1) returns gelded and with a 7-pound weight-break, but is that enough to get one excited about a horse who has been beaten double-digit lengths in his last three starts? Usually when Carla runs them for a tag, there’s a good reason. GRADE: X. #3 SEATTLE ENCOUNTER (4/1) finally makes a start after scratching out of races twice before. The works are perfectly fine, but he might need one before showing his best stuff. GRADE: C. #4 PICADO (30/1) debuts for Sierra, who hasn’t had too many debut runners the past year. I’m okay watching one, since he cost $2,200 back in 2015. GRADE: X. #5 LOCO MANGO (10/1) debuts for Eric Kruljac, who typically gives them a spin—as is evidenced by his 0-for-16 debut record the past year. Those Santa Anita works looks pretty slow as well. GRADE: X. #6 INSUBORDINATION (5/2) gets a positive jock change to Ceballos after Asa Espinoza set too fast of a pace when this guy ran second against open $40K claimers. I know this runner has had plenty of chances, but he catches a soft group today. GRADE: B. #7 RED OBSESSION (8/1) was 6/1 in his debut back in January, where he finished a tiring fifth. He now returns for a new barn, which does very nice work with new acquisitions. I expect him to run well today, but he is a 5-year-old with only one start under his belt. GRADE: B. #8 JERRY’S THUNDER (3/1) almost got the job done last time at this level, attending the pace before getting edged late at 9/1. He should move forward in his third start off the bench today. GRADE: A. #9 RIGHTEOUS WAVE (6/1) was 8/1 in his debut against Cal-bred MSWs last year, but he failed to fire. Headley has regrouped and now brings this guy back off an April 2017 layoff while dropping him in for a tag. C-Nak’s presence is interesting, and the class-relief is not insignificant here, especially after a sharp gate work. GRADE: A. SUGGESTED WAGER It’s a tough but manageable sequence today, getting plenty of MATRIX coverage for $85. If you want to spend less, $74 will get you all “A’s” with two “B’s,” while $20 will get you all “A’s” with one “B.” Remember: whatever you choose to do: only play what you’re comfortable spending or create your own

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