UNWTO World Tourism Barometer. ... Source: World Tourism Organization (
UNWTO). 1.2 ... Total tourism revenue in Canada: $82.4 billion (+5% from 2011).
1.1
State of the Global Tourism Industry International tourist arrivals grew by 4% in 2012 to reach 1.035 billion, according to the January UNWTO World Tourism Barometer. Emerging economies (+4.1%) regained the lead over advanced economies (+3.6%), with Asia and the Pacific showing the strongest results. Growth is expected to continue in 2013 only slightly below the 2012 level (+3% to +4%) and in line with UNWTO long term forecast to 2030 and which is expected to average +3.8% per year between 2010 and 2020. With an additional 39 million international tourists, up from 996 million in 2011, international tourist arrivals surpassed 1 billion (1.035 billion) for the first time in history in 2012. Demand held well throughout the year, with a stronger than expected fourth quarter. By region, Asia and the Pacific (+7%) was the best performer, while by sub-region South-East Asia, North Africa (both at +9%) and Central and Eastern Europe (+8%) topped the ranking. International Tourist Arrivals 1,035 1000
935
million
900 795
800 675
700 600 528 500 1995
2000
2005
2010 2012
Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO)
1.2
State of Canada’s Tourism Industry
1.2.1 – Canada’s Tourism Industry Performance Estimates prepared by CTC Research indicate that overnight international arrivals to Canada expanded by 2.2% in 2012, with both United States and other international arrivals growing 2.2%. Meanwhile, overnight arrivals from CTC overseas markets increased by 3.0%, as nonCTC overseas visitors edged up 1.0%. Based on the preliminary 2012 estimates released by Statistics Canada, Canada’s tourism industry performance in 2012 continued to be driven by domestic travel. The following key annual tourism industry performance estimates: • •
Total tourism revenue in Canada: $82.4 billion (+5% from 2011) Total international tourism revenue (exports): $15.4 billion (+2% from 2011)
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• • • •
Total domestic tourism revenue: $67 billion (+5% from 2011) Tourism’s contribution to Canada’s GDP: $32.4 billion (+4.0% from 2011) Government revenues generated by tourism: $22.3 billion (+4.1% from 2011)1 Total employment generated by tourism demand: 608,500 jobs (+1.0% from 2011)
1.2.2 – Canada’s Travel Deficit - 2012 Preliminary estimates from Statistics Canada’s International Travel Account indicates that travel receipts earned from foreign residents increased to an estimated $17.4 billion2 in 2012 for a 4.4% gain over 2011. This gain was however offset by the larger gain in travel payments by Canadians in foreign countries which reached $35.2 billion (+6.7% from 2011). As a result, Canada’s international travel deficit – the difference between what Canadian residents spend abroad and what international travellers spend in Canada – increased by 9.1% in 2012 to an estimated record travel deficit level of $17.8 billion.
20
17.8
Deficit ($B)
16.4 14.2
15
12.1 12.0 9.8
10 6.8 5.2
5
2.4 2.1 1.7
4.0 3.3
Total Travel Account Deficit
20 11 20 12
10
9
8
6
7
5
3
4
2
1
20 00
0
1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0
($US/$CDN)
Canadian Travel Deficit 2000-2012
US$/CDN$ Exchange Rate
1.2.3 – Canada’s Market Performance - 2012 In 2012, primarily led by the emerging markets and a rebound from the US, CTC’s preliminary estimates of overnight arrivals for all target markets registered a gain of 3.0% over 2011 (see table below). There were record numbers of overnight visitors to Canada from China, Australia,
1
Source: National Tourism Indicators, Quarterly estimates, Third quarter 2012, Statistics Canada There are subtle by important differences between travel and tourism receipts that explain why travel receipts earned from foreign residents are greater than tourism revenues earned from foreign visitors: • Receipts in the International Travel Accounts include all tourism expenditures, except transport fares to enter or leave Canada, plus non-tourism expenditures, such as crew and educational expenditures. The latter includes fees paid by international students to educational institutions. • In contrast, international tourism revenues (export) include transport fares to enter or leave Canada and, consistent with tourism’s UNWTO definition, exclude crew spending and educational expenditures. Most of the latter are post-secondary related and therefore involve stays greater than one year.
2
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India and Brazil, which helped offset the declines experienced by South Korea (-7.5%) and the UK (-3.8%). Results for 2012 would suggest that the events in Europe (Olympics, World Cup, euro crisis and election in France) have had a negative impact on the long-haul travel intensity of CTC’s key target European markets – both France and Germany performances were stagnant. Meanwhile, Japan regained momentum, pulling itself out of the doldrums following the major natural disasters that occurred in 2011, while declining overnight arrivals from South Korea stood in contrast to expanding long-haul travel intensity from this market to destinations in Western Europe and the United States. Comparing 2012 results against 2008 and 2002, with the exception of France, Australia and emerging markets (China, India and Brazil), all other markets are lagging behind. International Travel to Canada Volumes (000’s)
Receipts ($M)
2012
2012/ 2011%
2012/ 2008%
2012/ 2002%
2012
2012/ 2011%
2012/ 2008%
2012/ 2002%
11,847
3.0
-5.2
-26.7
6,134
1.2
-7.6
-27.1
6,932
2.3
-5.9
-34.6
2,640
2.3
-8.6
-36.2
4,915
3.9
-4.3
-11.6
3,494
0.5
-6.8
-18.3
United Kingdom
599
-3.8
-28.4
-17.0
751
-5.6
-36.6
-24.3
France
421
-0.2
4.2
34.9
543
-0.2
0.4
45.0
Germany
290
0.0
-8.0
-0.5
451
0.2
-3.3
17.1
Australia
235
8.9
7.2
58.0
419
6.9
17.8
94.4
1,545
-0.4
-13.0
4.8
2,163
-0.9
-15.1
9.9
Japan
203
9.0
-21.7
-52.0
322
4.8
-9.6
-51.7
South Korea
130
-7.5
-25.0
-9.6
209
-11.5
-24.3
-14.3
China
288
21.6
81.4
202.1
481
18.1
83.0
159.7
India
171
5.0
33.0
151.5
163
0.3
33.4
219.4
Brazil
80
6.3
13.2
125.2
152
9.1
38.3
203.4
Mexico
133
6.7
-48.3
-17.6
186
4.9
-48.9
-18.7
Total Emerging Markets
1,004
8.5
-4.1
8.4
1,513
5.8
1.5
6.2
Total Target Markets Total International Travel
14,396
3.0
-6.1
-22.5
9,810
1.4
-8.1
-16.9
15,960
2.2
-6.1
-20.1
12,012
0.7
-7.2
-12.2
Total US Overnight Travel US Overnight Auto US Overnight NonAuto Core Markets
Total Core Markets Emerging Markets
Source: CTC Preliminary Estimates
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1.4
State of Canada’s Key Competitors - 2012
Overnight travel to Canada from CTC’s target markets registered an overall modest growth of 2.3% in 2012. However, with the exception of the UK, Canada was outpaced by the US and Australia by more than two-fold. Of significance is the continued revival in inbound travel to the U.S., registering very strong growth from many CTC target markets. The U.S. has particularly benefited from a few years of ADS with China, which has now surpassed the one million mark. In fact, beside India, all other CTC target markets in the U.S. are above the one million mark. While South Korean long-haul travellers snubbed Canada and to a lesser extend Australia, , the UK and the US emerged as popular travel destinations for them , likely as a result of the greater purchasing power of the Korean Won relative to both the US dollar and the British pound. Canada* United States** Australia*** UK* (‘000) 12/11% (‘000) 12/11% (’000) 12/11% (‘000) 12/11% US +2.2 +5.0 +3.0 11,847 479 2,930 Mexico +6.7 +6.2 +6.0 133 14,250 83 UK -3.8 -1.7 -2.4 599 3,771 594 France -0.2 -2.8 +3.8 +2.0 421 1,463 98 3,896 Germany +2.5 +0.6 -3.0 290 1,869 155 2,844 Japan +9.0 +12.5 +6.4 +9.0 203 3,656 354 257 South Korea -7.5 +7.8 -0.6 +2.0 130 1,234 197 China +21.6 +33.4 +15.6 +16.0 288 1,453 626 209 Australia +8.9 +7.2 -11.0 235 1,112 971 Brazil +4.6 +16.2 +6.5 -11.0 81 1,752 31 245 India +5.0 +7.9 +7.4 -5.0 171 716 159 335 CTC Markets +2.3 +6.8 +4.9 +1.3 14,398 31,276 2,812 11,770 Total Intern. +2.2 +6.3 +4.6 -1.0 16,335 66,275 6,146 30,371 Source: *CTC estimates, **US OTTI with CTC estimates for Dec. 2012, ***Tourism Australia.
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