the! suitability!of! early! warning! systems!and ...

!

‘ THE!SUITABILITY!OF!EARLY!WARNING!SYSTEMS!AND!TEMPORARY! DISASTER!HOUSING!FOR!AN!AGEING!POPULATION:!A!CASE!STUDY!OF! ELDERLY!TRANSITIONAL!SHELTER!RESIDENTS!IN!POST8GEJET!JAPAN’ ! !

U N I V E R S I T Y * C O L L E G E * L O ND O N * I N S TI TU T E * F O R * R I S K *A N D * D I S A S T E R * R E D U C T I O N * A N G U S* N A Y L O R * (U N I V E R S IT Y ! O F ! L O N D O N )! I*DE CLAR E*T HE *FO LLO WI NG* WO RK* IS*MY* OWN*A ND,*WHER E*T HE * WOR K*OF*O TH ERS* HAS* BEE N*USED ,*IT*H AS*B EEN* CLEARLY*ID ENTIFIED .*

SIGNED:......................................*

! ! ! SUBMITTED!IN!COMPLETION!OF MSC!IN!RISK,!DISASTER!AND!RESILIENCE! ! SUPERVISOR:!DR!J.!FAURE!WALKER! WORD!COUNT:!11,978!

ANGUS!WILLIAM!NAYLOR! UCLCN:!HSBX0!! UCLSN:!14418839! EMAIL:[email protected]! TEL:!07478714806

*

UCL"–THE"SUITABILITY"OF"EARLY"WARNING"SYSTEMS"AND"TEMPORARY"DISASTER"HOUSING"FOR"AN" AGEING"POPULATION:"A"CASE"STUDY"OF"ELDERLY"TRANSITIONAL"SHELTER"RESIDENTS"IN"POST9 GEJET"JAPAN."!

Acknowledgements I w o u ld lik e to th a n k th e fo llo w in g p e o p le , w ith o u t w h o m th e c o m p le tio n o f th is y e a r o f a c a d e m ic w o rk , a n d in d e e d th is th e sis, w o u ld n o t h a v e b e e n p o ssib le : -

9 U C L IR D R (F u n d in g ) 9 IR D R Ja p a n F ie ld T e a m (D r Jo a n n a F a u re W a lk e r, Pro f. P e te r S a m m o n d s, P ro f. D a v id A le x a n d e r, e t a l.) 9 D r J o a n n a F a u re W a lk e r 9 P ro fe s so r D a v id A le x a n d e r 9 D r Ila n K e lm a n 9 D r C a s s id y J o h n s o n 9 M rs J illia n N a y lo r 9 M r D a v id N a y lo r 9 M r A lis ta ir D a v ie s

P a rtic u la r th a n k s g o to m y su p e rv is o r, D r J o a n n a F a u re W a lk e r, for h e lp in g b rin g th is p ro je c t to g e th e r, m y p a re n ts, w ith o u t w h o se se n tim e n ts a n d fin a n c ia l a n d s u p p o rt th is w o rk w o u ld n o t h a v e b e e n p o ssib le , a n d M r A lista ir D a v ie s, w h o se e m o tio n a l s u p p o rt h a s p ro v e d a n a sse t.

1"

2$ UCL$–THE$SUITABILITY$OF$EARLY$WARNING$SYSTEMS$AND$TEMPORARY$DISASTER$HOUSING$FOR$ AN$AGEING$POPULATION:$A$CASE$STUDY$OF$ELDERLY$TRANSITIONAL$SHELTER$RESIDENTS$IN$ POST8GEJET$JAPAN.

The suitability of early warning systems and temporary disaster housing for an ageing population: a case study of elderly transitional shelter residents in post-GEJET Japan. Angus Naylor, MSc Risk, Disaster & Resilience W o r d C o u n t: 1 1 , 9 7 8

Abstract In c o rp o ra tin g

c o m m u n ity

and

in d iv id u a l

sc a le

a n a ly sis

in to

d isa ste r

re sp o n se is b e c o m in g e sse n tia l, d u e to th e in c re a sin g m isc e lla n y o f d isa ste r risk re d u c tio n p ra c tise s e m p lo y e d a c ro ss th e g lo b e . In sp ite o f th is, a ‘o n e siz e fits a ll’, ‘s u rv iv a l o f th e fitte st’ m e th o d o lo g y re m a in s p e rv a siv e w ith in th e d isa ste r c y c le o f m a n y n a tio n s - p a rtic u la rly w ith in th e ir im m e d ia te re sp o n se a n d re c o v e ry p h a se s. T h is p a p e r id e n tifie s th e n e e d fo r im p ro v e d p o lic y

and

fra m e w o rk s

w ith

re g a rd

to

e ld e rly

p o p u la tio n s

in

th e

im m e d ia c y , a n d lo n g - te rm w a k e o f, a n a tu ra l d isa ste r; su rv e y in g a n u m b e r o f tra n sitio n a l sh e lte r re sid e n ts in th e a fte rm a th o f th e 1 1 t h M a rc h 2 0 1 1 G re a t E a s t J a p a n e a rth q u a k e a n d ts u n a m i (G E J E T ). T a rg e tin g th o s e a g e d 6 0 y e a rs o r o v e r, th e re la tiv e a p p lic a bility o f e a rth q u a k e a n d tsu n a m i w a rn in g sy ste m s, a n d th e p h y sic a l s tru c tu re , a n d stra te g ie s in v o lv e d in , tra n s itio n a l sh e lte rs a re e x p lo re d . F in d in g s su g g e st th a t a g e is n o t th e m o s t s ig n ific a n t c a v e a t to th e p e n e tra tio n o f w a rn in g sy ste m m e d ia a c ro ss d e m o g ra p h y , a n d th a t in so m e c a se s a g e m a y b e a n a sse t th ro u g h im p ro v e d so c ia l c a p ita l a n d p rio r d isa ste r e x p e rie n c e . H o w e v e r, in sp ite o f a n u m b e r o f issu e s ra ise d in p re v io u s d isa ste rs in v o lv in g th e su ita b ility o f tra n sitio n a l sh e lte r to th e e ld e rly , p re c in c ts a re n o te d th ro u g h o u t th e ir a p p lic a tio n . Is s u e s ra n g e fro m a la c k o f c o n c re te p o lic y o r la w to p re v e n t, o r e v e n re c o rd , ‘so lita ry d e a th s’ o r k o d o k u sh i, to th e p h y s ic a l in a b ility o f s tru c tu re s th e m se lv e s to sy n th e s ise b o th e m o tio n a l a n d p h y sic a l w e ll- b e in g in th e lo n g te rm .

3"

" UCL"–THE"SUITABILITY"OF"EARLY"WARNING"SYSTEMS"AND"TEMPORARY"DISASTER"HOUSING"FOR"AN" AGEING"POPULATION:"A"CASE"STUDY"OF"ELDERLY"TRANSITIONAL"SHELTER"RESIDENTS"IN"POST9GEJET" JAPAN."!

L ist o f A b b re v ia tio n s:

AMP:

Automated Mobile Phone

DRA:

Disaster Relief Act

DRR:

Disaster Risk Reduction

EEFIT:

Earthquake Engineering Field Investigation Team

EERI:

Earthquake Engineering Research Institute

EEW:

Earthquake Early Warning

EWS/s:

Early Warning System/s

FDR:

False Discovery Rate (Benjamini-Hochberg Test)

et

F :

Fisher’s Exact Test

GEJET:

Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami

GoJ:

Government of Japan

GPS:

Global Positioning System

TSC/s:

Transitional Shelter Complex/es Temporary Housing Complex/es

UCL:

University College London

ICT:

Information-Communications Technology

IRDR:

Institute of Risk & Disaster Reduction

JMA:

Japanese Meteorological Agency

JRA:

Japanese Reconstruction Agency

JRC:

Japanese Red Cross

LADESS:

Local Automated Data Editing and Switching System

MLIT:

Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism

NGOs:

Non-Government Organisations

SAWS:

Simultaneous Announcement Wireless System

SMS:

Short Messaging Service

U N -D R O :

United Nations Disaster Relief Organisation

U N -H C R :

United Nations High Commission for Refugees

U N -I S D R :

United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction

USGS:

United States Geological Survey

WHO:

World Health Organisation

4" UCL"–THE"SUITABILITY"OF"EARLY"WARNING"SYSTEMS"AND"TEMPORARY"DISASTER"HOUSING"FOR" AN"AGEING"POPULATION:"A"CASE"STUDY"OF"ELDERLY"TRANSITIONAL"SHELTER"RESIDENTS"IN" POST9GEJET"JAPAN.

T a b le o f C o n te n ts:

Page:

1 .0 – In tro d u c tio n

7

1 .1 – R a tio n a le

7

1 .2 – S tr u c tu r e o f th e P a p e r

8

2 .0 – L ite ra tu re S y n th e sis

10

2 .1 – V u ln e r a b ility /R e s ilie n c e 2 .1 .1 – V u l n e r a b i l i t y a n d A g e i n g D e m o g r a p h i c s

10 10

2 .2 – E a rly W a rn in g S y ste m s (E W S s) 2 .2 .1 – C o n t r o v e r s y o f E W S s i n t h e C o n t e x t o f a n A g e i n g S o c i e t y

12 14

2 .3 – W h a t is ‘T r a n s itio n a l S h e lte r ’? 2 .3 .1 – I m p o r t a n c e o f t h e S p h e r e H a n d b o o k 2 .3 .2 – T h e J a p a n e s e T e m p o r a r y H o u s i n g S t r a t e g y 2.3.2.1 – Kobe’s Example

17 20 21 21

3 .0 – C o n te x t

24

3 .1 – G r e a t E a s t J a p a n E a rth q u a k e a n d T s u n a m i (G E J E T )

24

3 .2 – M iy a g i’s P o s t-G E J E T T e m p o r a r y H o u s in g

28

3 .3 – T h e G E J E T E W S

32

4 .0 – M e th o d o lo g y

36

4 .1 – O u tlin e o f R e s e a r c h , H y p o th e s e s a n d Q u e s tio n s

36

4 .2 – R e se a rc h M e th o d s 4 .2 .1 – I R D R T e m p o r a r y H o u s i n g S u r v e y 4 .2 .2 – M e t h o d s o f A n a l y s i s

37 37 40

4 .3 – L im ita tio n s

40

5 .0 – R e su lts

42

5 .1 – E W S 5 .1 .1 – A n a l y s i s & D i s c u s s i o n : R e c e i p t & M e d i a 5 .1 .2 – W i d e r A p p l i c a t i o n o f S a m p l e : S t a t i s t i c a l A n a l y s i s 5 .1 .3 – R e c o m m e n d a t i o n s

42 42 47 49

5 .2 – E v a c u a tio n F o llo w in g E a rly W a rn in g

49

5"

" UCL"–THE"SUITABILITY"OF"EARLY"WARNING"SYSTEMS"AND"TEMPORARY"DISASTER"HOUSING"FOR"AN" AGEING"POPULATION:"A"CASE"STUDY"OF"ELDERLY"TRANSITIONAL"SHELTER"RESIDENTS"IN"POST9GEJET" JAPAN."!

Page: 5 .3 – S u ita b ility o f T e m p o r a r y H o u s in g 5 .3 .1 – D i s c u s s i o n a n d R e c o m m e n d a t i o n s

54 57

6 .0 – C o n c lu sio n

60

7 .0 – R e fe re n c e s

62

8 .0 – A p p e n d ic e s

76

L ist o f F ig u r e s & T a b le s : In tro d u c tio n F ig u re 1 .1

9

L ite ra tu re S y n th e sis T a b le 2 .1 F ig u re 2 .1 F ig u re 2 .2 F ig u re 2 .3 F ig u re 2 .4 T a b le 2 .2

11 13 16 17 19 23

C o n te x t F ig u re 3 .1 F ig u re 3 .2 T a b le 3 .1 F ig u re 3 .3 T a b le 3 .2 F ig u re 3 .4 F ig u re 3 .5 F ig u re 3 .6 F ig u re 3 .7 T a b le 3 .3 F ig u re 3 .8 F ig u re 3 .9

24 25 26 27 29 30 30 31 32 33 34 35

M e th o d o lo g y F ig u re 4 .1 T a b le 4 .1

38 39

6" UCL"–THE"SUITABILITY"OF"EARLY"WARNING"SYSTEMS"AND"TEMPORARY"DISASTER"HOUSING"FOR" AN"AGEING"POPULATION:"A"CASE"STUDY"OF"ELDERLY"TRANSITIONAL"SHELTER"RESIDENTS"IN" POST9GEJET"JAPAN.

Page: R e su lts F ig u re 5 .1 F ig u re 5 .2 F ig u re 5 .3 F ig u re 5 .4 T a b le 5 .1 T a b le 5 .2 F ig u re 5 .5 F ig u re 5 .6 F ig u re 5 .7

42 43 45 45 48

49 50 51 55

L ist o f A p p e n d ic e s: A p p e n d ix A p p e n d ix A p p e n d ix A p p e n d ix A p p e n d ix A p p e n d ix A p p e n d ix

1: 2: 3: 4: 5: 6: 7:

S p h e re G u id e lin e s IR D R In fo rm a l In te rv ie w N o te s Q u e stio n n a ire ‘a ’ Q u e stio n n a ire ‘b ’ A b rid g e d R e su lts S h e e t N o n -a b rid g e d R e su lts S h e e t – ‘N a g a m a c h i’ B e n ja m in i-H o c h b e rg C a lc u la tio n s

76 77 86 93 99 100

101


1.0 – Introduction T h e n e e d to d e v e lo p m o re e ffe c tiv e , h o lis tic m e c h a n ism s a n d fra m e w o rk s fo r n a tu ra l h a z a rd e a rly w a rn in g sy ste m s (E W S s ) a n d lo n g - te rm p o std isa ste r re c o v e ry h a s c o m e to th e fo re fro n t o f e m e rg e n c y p la n n in g a n d m a n a g e m e n t in re c e n t y e a rs. T h is in c re a s e d d iv e rsity in d isa ste r risk re d u c tio n (D R R ) m e th o d s, a n d th e u s e o f m o re m u ltifa c e te d a p p ro a c h e s, is d riv e n b y p ro je c tio n s o f la rg e r, m o re fre q u e n t n a tu ra l d isa ste rs c o u rte sy o f c lim a tic

change,

g lo b a l

p o p u la tio n

g ro w th ,

and

u rb a n isa tio n (1)(2).

E stim a tio n s o f d e m o g ra p h ic tra n s itio n su g g e st th a t th e s e fa c to rs w ill b e c o m p o u n d e d b y p r o g re ssiv e ly a g e in g p o p u la tio n s in th e m a jo rity o f sta te s a c ro ss th e w o rld ; n o n e m o re so th a n Ja p a n , w h e re, b y 2 0 5 0 , a v e ra g e p o p u la tio n a g e is p ro je c te d to b e 5 1 .3 y e a rs (3)(4)(5). A s su c h , a n u n d e rsta n d in g a s to th e e ffe c tiv e n e ss o f D R R a p p ro a c h e s is k e y to m itig a tin g fu tu re e v e n ts . T h e p rin c ip le o b je c tiv e o f th is p a p e r is to e v a lu a te th e su ita b ility o f tra n sitio n a l sh e lte r c o m p le x e s (T S C s) a n d e a rth q u a k e a n d tsu n a m i (a n d th e e v a c u a tio n p ra c tise s th a t th e y in stil), w ith re g a rd to e ld e rly p o p u la tio n s, fo llo w in g th e 2 0 1 1 G re a t E a s t J a p a n/T ō h o k u e a rth q u a k e a n d tsu n a m i (G E J E T ).

1 .1 - R a tio n a le

In sp ite o f p ro je c tio n s o f d e m o g ra p h ic a n d e n v iro n m e n ta l c h a n g e, in th e ir c u rre n t m a n ife sta tio n , d isa ste rs a n d th e ir m a n a g e m e n t o fte n su ffe r fro m a sc a rc ity o f p re - e m p tiv e in v e stig a tio n a n d p o st- d isa ste r e v a lu a tio n re g a rd in g th e

su ita b ility

d e m o g ra p h y (6).

of It

re c o v e ry has

stra te g ie s

become

an

and

a lm o st

d isa ste r a c c e p te d

re sp o n ses n o rm

th a t

a c ro ss sta te-

c o o rd in a te d d isa ste r m itig a tio n a n d re sp o n se is g o v e rn e d b y a p rim itiv e D a rw in is m – “ s u rv iv a l o f th e fitte st” – w h e re b y th e m o s t v u ln e ra b le in e v e ry d a y so c ie tie s a re c o n siste n tly th e m o st v u ln e ra b le in th e im m e d ia te a n d lo n g - te rm d isa ste r se ttin g (7)(8)(9)(10). In th e e x a m p le o f Ja p a n , h o w e v e r, fo llo w in g th e 1 9 9 5 K o b e e a rth q u a k e - th e first e a rth q u a k e in th e n a tio n ’s h isto ry to a ffe c t, a c c o rd in g to M iy a m o to ( 1 1 ) , a n a g e in g “ m o d e rn istic m e g a lo p o lis” - th e e x p lo ra tio n o f h o w th e e ld e rly w e re a ffe c te d b y d isa ste r b e c a m e a p re v a le n t issu e c o u rte sy o f th e ir d isp ro p o rtio n a te m o rta lity ( 1 2 ) . W o rk b y th e W H O (13)(14) – p ro d u c e d a n u m b e r o f re c o m m e n d a tio n s re g a rd in g p re p a re d n e ss a n d re sp o n se fo llo w in g K o b e, w h ic h s p e c ific a lly fo c u s e d u p o n th e e ld e rly . G iv e n th e lo w re tu rn ra te p a rtic u la rly la rg e - s c a le

7"

8"


d isa ste rs, h o w e v e r, p a rtic u la rly in th e d e v e lo p e d w o rld, a n a b s e n c e o f sim ila rly a n a lo g o u s e v e n ts c re a te d a la c k o f re s e a rc h o p p o rtu n itie s in Ja p a n , p a rtic u la rly re g a rd in g th e e ld e rly * , d u rin g th e first d e c a d e o f th e tw e n ty - firs t c e n tu ry (fig u re 1 .1 ) (15). W ith re g a rd to c o m p u te r- a id e d tsu n a m i E W S s (w h ic h s u p e rs e d e d a m o re p rim itiv e sy s te m in 1 9 9 9 ), e v e n fe w e r o p p o rtu n itie s h a v e p re se n te d th e m se lv e s, w ith p e rh a p s th e m o st s ig n ific a n t e v e n t b e in g th e 2 0 0 6 K u ril Isla n d s e a rth q u a k e , in itse lf a re la tiv e ly sm a ll e v e n t (16). A s su c h , th e c o m p le tio n o f th is th e sis c lo se s a g a p in k n o w le d g e re g a rd in g a n u m b e r o f a re a s th a t c o u ld p ro v e k e y to fu tu re d isa ste r risk re d u c tio n fo r a n a g e in g Ja p a n , a n d in d e e d o th e r d e v e lo p e d a n d d e v e lo p in g n a tio n s u n d e rg o in g d e m o g ra p h ic tra n sitio n.

1 .2 – S tr u c tu r e o f P a p e r

A d isc u ssio n o f th e fin d in g s o f th is th e s is c a n b e fo u n d in se c tio n 6 .0 o f th is p a p e r; th is is p re c e d e d b y a se c tio n o u tlin i n g th e re su lts o f b o th re sid e n ts’ s u rv e y s a n d in fo rm a l d isc u ssio n s (5 .0 ); a c h a p te r o n its m e th o d o lo g ic a l a p p ro a c h (4 .0 ); a se c tio n e x p lo rin g th e c o n te x t o f th e G E J E T (3 .0 ); a n d a sy n th e sis o f a p p ro p ria te lite ra tu re (2 .0 ). * T h e “ U N a g r e e d ” W H O (17) d e f i n i t i o n o f t h e e l d e r l y i s u s e d i n t h i s p a p e r : w h e r e b y m i n i m u m a g e should be “60+ years to refer to the older population”.


136°

138°

140°

142°

144°

146°

148°

1950

ait La Perouse Str

Harbin

K it am i - 200 Ya m a tu B an k

IA

300

M

gh ou

a

r ta Ta 1973

O

ki

60

ge

Kyoto

a

Fukuoka

Sh

iko

ku

1944

To s a Bank

Nagasaki

Kyushu

u

a

d

i

is

R -300

asawara Izu - Og Rise

0 40

W A

60

R

t

s)

C

N

sl a

I

H

d

n

h g u

o

r

R

E

u y k

T

O T

60

Iwo-j ima

ol c ō (V

e

an sl a

)

0 10

ds

n

i t o

oI

a

- re t t

g

D

Ki ta-io-jim a

K a za n

d

Ok i-Da it o Te rrace O k i

R i d g e

i

i t o

n a i C h

i n

a

s

D

a

u

B

Kita-Daito Basin

C'

R

S

N C H R E

a

I-

H

O

0 60

n

E

y

u

S

o

tō

(R

a

S

h

Naha

T

n t o u a m S e

a r i

highest"magnitude"events"indicated"on"this"map"(the"largest"red"shapefiles)"hold"an"intensity"of"8.4M W"(the"Kuril,"2006" ett ō ge Hahajim a-r (18)(19) R id o h &"Hokkaido,"2003"earthquakes),"which"are"3.981"times"smaller"than"the"9.0M "2011"GEJET ."""" W Ko l

o

id

Ridge w a r a ( Bonin Is lands) asa o tō O g a w a r a- S h s O ga

a a

R

g

D'

a-rettō Mukojim Yome -jima ich Ch iji ma Figure"1.1:""Map"of"relative"earthquake"seismic"moment"across"Japan"and"its"vicinity"between"the"years"190092007."The" ret tō D 1911

P

Oki naw e a

100

M

e

-

is

n n a K i

s u

R

A

e h

Tokuno Shim a

A m a m i

50 0

s

60

R i d g e

W

u

Amami Ō Shim a

-400

Nade

A

Tori-shi ma

y

Kikai Basin

C

-100

-200

Sumisu-shima

10 0

B'

1972

Ao ga-shima

K

20 0

1953

Hachi jo-shim a

1961 1941

A SEA

1909

A S

1931

m

R

e

K

1909

1968

1946

n o

g

0

1923

O G

Gotō Rett ō

Matsuyama

Kawasaki

1923

-

K

e or

1906

Shimonoseki Kita Kyushu

Yokohama

Ō-s hima Nii-shima Kōzu-shima Mi yaki-s him a Mikura-shima

Osaka

Hiroshima

t

B

Tokyo

g e R i d ds ) 200 i m a Is l a n - O z u z I ( i t o S i t -S h o tō u z I 300 h i t o - S h i c N i s h i

Che ju-do

ai

1938

I Z U

Kobe

10 0

Nagoya

ShimonoTsushi ma Shima

n H o

A'

s

Pusan

60

Gifu

r St

100

1938 1938

B

Dōgo Dōzen

Taegu

id

1938

1933

A

Taejon

R

1915

1978

Sendai

u

Tu s i m a Basin

Kwangju

Honshu 1964

Syun-Yo Rise

T R E N C H

300

nk

J A PA N

Ch'ungju

Chonju

Ba

to

Ya m a t o Basin

Dokdo (Admin by S. Korea)

SOUTH KOREA

o

h

Inch`on Seoul

1960

e Ris

N

at

Ko

Kaesong

I

P

a

Z

J

Y

ait

m

m

re

an

K

Ya

a

nk

Ba

1994

1901 1931

200

a Y

m

U

R

1968

400

500

u

1994

1968

1983

600

a

a

K

1952

Aomori

to

1969

I

e

B

n

a

p

a

P

la

Wonsan

P'yongyang

te

b

2003

i n

s

a

1978

A

Ch'ongjin

NORTH KOREA

Ha

a

1993

Sapporo

Bogorov Ridge

J

1973

60

om

1993

Vladivostok

A

1978

1995 1978

1958

L

R

k

Tr

n

100

Hokkaido

1963 1978

s.

S

B

Jilin

R

I

IL

D

SL

Kunishir

i

U

s

1940

U

K

sa

S

u

Changchun

Itur upA N

150°

S

M

134°

A

132°

K

130°

-

128°

J a p a n

126°

9"

O g a s a w a

10"


2.0 – Literature Synthesis 2 .1 – V u ln e r a b ility /R e s ilie n c e

C a ta ly sin g n e g a tiv e im p a c ts o v e r c o n sid e ra b le , p ro tra c te d p e rio d s o f tim e , d isa ste rs o fte n re so n a te o v e r v a rie d sp a tial a n d so c io lo g ic a l sc a le s (20). T h e y p o sse ss a n in h e re n t d e g re e o f u n p re d ic ta b ility , a n d it is th is c o m p le x ity , a n d th e c o m p le x n a tu re o f so c ie tie s w ith in th e ir n e x u s, th a t c re a te s d iffic u lty w h e n te rm in g a situ a tio n , c o m m u n ity o r in d iv id u a l ‘v u ln e ra b le ’ (21). F u rth e rm o re , ‘v u ln e ra b ility ’ in itse lf , is o fte n c ite d a s a so c ia l c o n stru c t: s u ffe rin g fro m m u ltifa c e te d d e fin itio n s a n d a h ig h d e g re e o f c o n te x t- d e p e n d e n c e (21)(22). F irst c o n c e p tu a lis e d in a n a tu ra l h a z a rd s s e ttin g b y O ’K e e fe e t a l. (23), fo llo w in g its e v o lu tio n th ro u g h th e fie ld s o f e c o lo g y a n d so c ia l sc ie n c e , v u ln e ra b ility w a s in itia lly o u tlin e d o n b ro a d , n a tio n a l sc a l e s (24). T h ro u g h th is p re d o m in a n tly to p d o w n a n a ly sis, c rite ria fo r m o d e rn - d a y d e fin itio n s w e re d e v e lo p e d ; p e rh a p s m o st n o ta b ly , th e v ie w th a t v u ln e ra b ility is in flu e n c e d b y d e g re e o f e x p o su re to a d v e rse e v e n ts , o fte n a s a re su lt o f so c io - e c o n o m ic a n d p o litic a l fa c to rs (23). L a tte rly , v u ln e ra b ility o n th e in d iv id u a l o r c o m m u n ity sc a le - a n d su b se q u e n tly th e d e g re e to w h ic h th e se m o re d im in u tiv e c a te g o rie s a re in v e rse ly re silie n t - h a s b e e n e x p lo re d in fa r g re a te r d e ta il, re su ltin g in o v e r tw e n ty d iffe re n t d e fin itio n s o f th e te rm ; th e m o st n o ta b le o f w h ic h a re liste d o v e rle a f (ta b le 2 .1 ) (25)(26)(27).

2 .1 .1 – V u ln e r a b ility a n d A g e in g D e m o g ra p h ic s It h a s b e e n lo n g u n d e rsto o d , s in c e F re id s a m ’s (28) a rtic le , O ld e r P e r s o n s In D is a s te r, th a t th e d is trib u tio n o f c a s u a ltie s w ith in d is a s te r z o n e s , in te rm s o f b o th se rio u s in ju ry a n d m o rta lity, is n o t u n ifo rm a c ro ss d e m o g ra p h y . S te m m in g fro m a n in c re a se d lik e lih o o d o f d isa b ility a n d fra ilty a m o n g th e e ld e rly , a n d a la c k o f in d e p e n d e n c e a n d c o m p re h e n sio n a m o n g th e v e ry y o u n g , p a p e rs o fte n c ite th e se tw o o p p o site s o f th e a g e sp e c tru m a s th e m o st a t risk in th e o n se t o f a d isa ste r (28)(29)(30)(31). R e g a rd in g its re le v a n c e to e ld e rly d e m o g ra p h ic s sp e c ific a lly , v u ln e ra b ility a m o n g th e a g e d v a rie s stro n g ly d e p e n d in g u p o n its p h y sic a l o r p sy c h o so c ia l c o n te x t. W h ils t e a rly s tu d ie s b y F re id s a m ( 2 8 ) a n d H u tto n ( 2 9 ) , fo c u s in g e x c lu s iv e ly u p o n ‘p h y s ic a l v u ln e ra b ility ’ (i.e . p ro n e n e ss to b o d ily h a rm o r d e a th ), fo u n d th e e ld e rly to b e a t m u c h g re a te r risk , m o re c o n te m p o ra ry


Table"2.1:""A"number"of"definitions"of"the"term"vulnerability"from"contemporary"literature,"relevant"to"this" thesis’" focus" on" natural" hazards." General" trends" among" modern" definitions" include" the" concept" of" vulnerability" being" an" in9built" or" inherent" factor," governed" strongly" by" degree" of" exposure," and" that" (32)(33)(22)(34)(35)(36)(37)(38) vulnerability"can"be"applied"to"a"number"of"scales."References"in"descending"order: .

11"


12"

stu d ie s, e x p lo rin g th e p s y c h o lo g ic a l c o n te x t o f v u ln e ra b ility , h a v e s h o w n le ss w e ll- d e fin e d c o rre la tio n ( 3 0 ) ( 3 1 ) ( 3 9 ) . A c c o rd in g to B o lin & K le n o w ( 3 0 ) , p o la ris a tio n w a s fo u n d b e tw e e n th e v u ln e ra b ility o f a g e in g c o m m u n itie s v ersu s th e y o u n g a n d m id d le - a g e d in te rm s o f b o th th e p ro b a b ility o f th e ir p h y sic a l h a rm a n d th e ir p sy c h o lo g ic a l re silie n c e lo n g- te rm in to rn a d o - a ffe c te d re g io n s o f th e U .S .. Im p o rta n tly , w h ilst th e p a p e r c o n firm e d th e h isto ric a l m a x im s th a t th e e ld e rly a re m o re p h y sic a lly v u ln e ra b le re g a rd in g th e ir a b ility to e sc a p e a d isa ste r a n d its ill- e ffe c ts, it n o te d th a t th e a g e d w e re fo u n d to h a v e a “ lo w e r in c id e n c e o f e m o tio n a l a n d fa m ily p ro b le m s” lo n g - te rm ( 3 0 ) . S im ila r fin d in g s w e re a ls o p u b lish e d in stu d ie s b y T y le r & H o y t ( 3 1 ) , N o rris & M u rre l ( 4 0 ) a n d S a ttle r e t a l. ( 3 9 ) ; th e la tte r tw o su g g e stin g th a t a c a v e a t to in c re a se d p sy c h o lo g ic a l stre n g th , a n d in so m e c a se s p h y sic a l re silie n c e , m a y s te m fro m th e a g e d h o ld in g a n in c re a s e d lik e lih o o d o f p rio r d isa ste r e x p e rie n c e . T h is h a s s tro n g p e rtin e n c e to G E JE T sp e c ific a lly , g iv e n th e in c id e n c e o f th e V a lv id a , T o k a ch i, a n d K u ril Isla n d s tsu n a m is, in 1 9 6 0 , 1 9 6 8 a n d 2 0 0 6 re sp e c tiv e ly ; th o u g h , a d m itte d ly , sa id e v e n ts w e re o f c o n s id e ra b ly lo w e r m a g n itu d e ( 1 6 ) ( 4 1 ) .

In

sp ite

of

th e

in - d e p th

a p p lic a tio n

of

re se a rc h

m e th o d o lo g ie s

to

th e

v u ln e ra b ility o f th e e ld e rly , th e re is little lite ra tu re , a s y e t, th a t h a s e x a m in e d th e in flu e n c e o f th e in c re a sin g ly te c h n o c e n tric a p p ro a c h e s th a t a re b e in g a d o p te d in D R R d u rin g th e m o d e rn e ra . T h is is o f c ritic a l im p o rta n c e , g iv e n th e m e th o d o lo g ie s a d o p te d in p re se n t- d a y e a rly w a rn in g syste m s a n d p o st- d isa ste r re c o v e ry ; so m e th in g c o m p o u n d e d b y th a t fa c t th a t a n u m b e r o f p a p e rs, su c h a s M itz n e r e t a l. ( 4 2 ) a n d M a y h o rn e t a l. ( 4 3 ) , su g g e st th a t w h ilst th e e ld e rly m a y n o t b e re sista n t to th e u se a n d a p p lic a tio n o f n e w te c h n o lo g ie s in e v e ry d a y life , th e y o fte n re q u ire tra in in g a s to th e ir u se , u n le ss su c h sy ste m s a re sp e c ific a lly d e sig n e d to c a te r to th e ir a g e g ro u p ( 4 4 ) .

2 .2 – E a rly W a rn in g S y ste m s (E W S s)

E W S s a re a k e y fo rm o f D R R ; re la tiv e ly n e w in th e ir m o d e rn - d a y c o n stru c tio n , d u e to th e c o m m o n re q u ire m e n t fo r se n so r a rra y s a n d c o m p u te r m o d e llin g , th e y a re u tilise d fo r re d u c in g b o th d isa ste r lo sse s a n d d isa ste r risk th ro u g h th e ir a p p lic a tio n to c o m m u n itie s a n d in d iv id u a ls a lik e ( 4 7 ) . T h ro u g h th e ir p o te n tia l to sim u lta n e o u s ly lo w e r v u ln e ra b ility a n d in c re a s e re s ilie n ce w h e re im p le m e n te d , E W S s h a v e w o rld w id e a p p lic a tio n if a p p ro p ria te te c h n o lo g ie s a re a v a ila b le ( 4 7 ) ( 4 5 ) . In p ro v id in g in fo rm a tio n o n a d e v e lo p in g o r im m in e n tly d a n g e ro u s situ a tio n to


in d u c e a d e sire d re sp o n se , lik e a n y D R R m e c h a n ism , th e in te rp la y b e tw e e n th e c o n stitu e n t p a rts o f a n E W S tru ly in flu e n c e s its e ffe c tiv e n e ss (fig u re 2 .1 ) ( 4 6 ) ( 4 8 ) . T h e s u ita b ility o f w a rn in g s c a n b e s o m e w h a t c o n te n tio u s , h o w e v e r, a s n o a p p ro a c h is in fa llib le , a n d , a c c o rd in g to B a s h e r ( 4 6 ) , c a lls to a c tio n re ly o n a n u m b e r o f e x p e c ta tio n s o r a ssu m p tio n s re g a rd in g th e p o p u la c e s to w h ic h th e y a re a p p lie d ,

su c h

as

so c ia l

u n d e rsta n d in g

or

a c c e ss

to

c e rta in

te c h n o lo g ie s;

so m e th in g w h ic h c a n b e s e v e re ly d e trim e n ta l if w ro n g ly a n tic ip a te d . T h a t b e in g sa id , th e c ritic a l n e e d fo r th e a p p lic a tio n o f E W S h a s b e e n stro n g ly e m p h a sise d in re c e n t y e a rs ( 4 5 ) . In th e w a k e o f th e 2 0 0 4 In d ia n O c e a n ts u n a m i s p e c ific a lly , th e U N - IS D R ( 4 5 ) c a lle d fo r a re v ie w o f c u rre n t sy ste m s, a n d th e e x p lo ra tio n o f h o w m o re c o m p re h e n siv e sy stem s m a y b e im p le m e n te d g lo b a lly ( 4 6 ) .

i. RISK KNOWLEDGE a. Hazard knowledge b. Patterns/Trends c. Risk assessments

ii. MONITORING/WARNING a. Technical capacity b. Forecast evolution c. Issue warnings

iv. RESPONSE CAPABILITY a. Local and national scale b. Temporally appropriate c. Evoke correct response

iii. DISSEMINATION a. Identify audience b. Unambiguous warnings c. Preparedness information

Figure"2.1:"The"UN9ISDR’s"framework"of"Elements!for!an!Effective!Warning!System,"which"stresses"the"need" for" interplay" between" components;" preparedness" in" order" to" act" on" EWSs" (iv);" and" the" fact" that," when" issued,"warnings"need"to"be"unambiguous"and"contain"correct"information"in"order"to"stimulate"the"correct" response

(45)(46)

.

13"


14"

A c c o rd in g to S o re n se n ( 4 9 ) , E W S a p p lic a tio n s ra n g e fro m n a tu ra l g e o p h y sica l h a z a rd s, th ro u g h b io lo g ic a l e m e rg e n c ie s , to s o c io- p o litic a l h a z a rd s, a n d , w h ilst th e re is n o sin g le w a rn in g th a t c a n b e a p p lie d u n iv e rsa lly , e a c h u tilis e s a s im ila r m e th o d o lo g y in th e ir fu n c tio n ( 4 6 ) . B a s h e r ( 4 6 ) s ta tes th a t E W S s a re ty p ic a lly ‘w a rn in g c h a in s’, c o m p risin g o f fo u r k e y e le m e n ts (fig u re 2 .1 ). E a c h sy ste m re lie s o n a n u m b e r o f m e th o d s w ith w h ic h a w a rn in g m a y b e d isse m in a te d ; th is is so m e th in g , ac c o rd in g to S o re n se n & S o re n se n ( 5 0 ) , th a t h a s b e e n s tro n g ly a id e d in re c e n t d e c a d e s g iv e n th e ra p id a d v a n c e o f te c h n o lo g y a n d th e in c re a sin g ly te c h n o - c e n tric , IC T - b a se d a p p ro a c h to D R R . E x a m p le s o f d is s e m in a tio n m e th o d s a re liste d b e lo w , w ith te c h n o lo g ie s d e v e lo p e d to issu e w a rn in g s in th e la st 2 0 y e a rs a ste risk e d : -

•

S ire n s

•

D ig ita l te c h n o lo g ie s : b o th p u b lic a n d p riv a te su b sc rip tio n p ro v id e rs (m o b ile p h o n e s * – S M S /a u to m a te d m e ssa g e , in te rn e t* , ra d io s, p a g e rs* , G P S - b a se d a le rts* , te le v isio n ).

•

W o rd o f m o u th (o ffic ia l/u n o ffic ia l)

•

M a n u a l s y s te m s (w a rn in g fla g s , m e s s e n g e r ru n n e rs) (50)(51)(52)

2 .2 .1 – C o n tro v e rsy o f E W S s in th e C o n te x t o f a n A g e in g S o c ie ty

The

im p o rta n c e

of

u n d e rsta n d in g

te m p o ra l

d e m o g ra p h ic

tra n sitio n

w ith in

so c ie tie s h a s b e e n im p lic it w ith in h u m a n g e o g ra p h y a n d s o c io lo g y fo r a n u m b e r o f y e a rs. A s e a rly a s 1 9 2 9 p rim itiv e m o d e ls o f d e m o g ra p h ic tra n s itio n th e o ry h a d b e e n d ra w n u p a m id c o n c e rn s o v e r p o p u la tio n d e c lin e with in sta te s, a n d its su b se q u e n t e c o n o m ic a n d so c ia l im p a c ts ( 5 3 ) ( 5 4 ) . T h e ir u s a g e in d is a s te r th e o ry is , h o w e v e r, a m u c h m o re re c e n t a p p lic a tio n : p a rtic u la rly in h o w th e a g e in g o f a so c ie ty m a y in flu e n c e o v e ra ll D R R ( 5 5 ) . In te rm s o f d is a s te r E W S s a n d th e e ld e rly th is h a s m a s siv e ra m ific a tio n s, y e t a la c k o f a p p lic a tio n o f d e m o g ra p h ic tra n sitio n th e o ry , a c c o rd in g to P h illip s & M o rro w ( 5 5 ) , h a s stu n te d sy s te m e v o lu tio n . T h is p a u c ity in a w a re n e ss is e sp e c ia lly p e rtin e n t in re la tio n to Ja p a n ,


w h ic h is c u rre n tly ra n k e d 9 t h in S h i & K a sp e rso n ’s ( 5 6 ) W o rld A tla s o f D isa ste r R isk fo r ‘e x p e c te d a n n u a l m o rta lity a n d a ffe c te d p o p u la tio n risk ’, a n d h a s fo r m a n y y e a rs h a d p ro je c tio n s o f a n e v e r in c re a sin g o n u s to p ro v id e fo r a p o p u la tio n w ith a sk y ro c ke tin g o ld - a g e d e p e n d e n c y ra tio , w h ils t c o n s is te n tly in c re a sin g its d e p e n d e n c e u p o n te c h n o c e n tric E W S s (fig u re 2 .2 ) ( 5 7 ) . F re id s a m ( 2 8 ) firs t q u e stio n e d th e a p p lic a b ility o f E W S m e th o d s to th e e ld e rly : c itin g th e m a s a d isp ro p o rtio n a te ly le ss lik e ly to re c e iv e a w a rn in g , a n d a lso le ss in c lin e d to ta k e a c tio n s h o u ld th e y b e n o tifie d o f a n in c id e n t. In a ttrib u tin g c a u se , so c ia l iso la tio n , a n d d e c re a se d m o b ility w e re c ite d a s c a v e a ts to in c re a se d risk ( 2 8 ) . T h e s e s e n tim e n ts w e re e c h o e d b y P e rry ( 5 8 ) , w h o fo u n d th a t re d u c e d c o n ta c t w ith k in sm e n , lo w e r le v e ls o f c o m m u n ity p a rtic ip a tio n, a n d a lo w e r fre q u e n c y o f w a rn in g re c e ip t w e re fa r m o re p re v a le n t a m o n g th e e ld e rly re la tiv e to a n y o th e r a g e g ro u p , w ith s u c h fa c to rs c o lle c tiv e ly d e c re a sin g E W S e ffic a c y . A c c o rd in g to P e e k ( 5 9 ) , g a p s , a n d a la c k o f th o ro u g h in v e s tig a tio n in th is re s e a rc h a re a still p e rsist, a n d a la rg e p ro p o rtio n o f h isto ric a l stu d ie s i n to th e w a rn in g re c e ip t a n d re sp o n se o f th e e ld e rly h a v e p u b lish e d c o n flic tin g re su lts. F o r e x a m p le , c o n tra stin g th e w o rk s o f F rie d s a m ( 2 8 ) a n d P e rry ( 5 8 ) ( 6 0 ) a b o v e , P e rry & L in d e ll’s ( 6 1 ) s tu d y , c o n d u c te d a c ro s s a ra n g e o f d isa s te r s c e n a rio s (flo o d s , v o lc a n ic e ru p tio n s a n d a n th ro p o g e n ic d is a s te rs ), fo un d n o q u a n tita tiv e sta tistic a l c o rre la tio n b e tw e e n o ld e r a g e a n d a la c k o f c o m p lia n c e w ith w a rn in g m e ssa g e s. S ta tin g th a t “ p e o p le a g e d th irty - fiv e to fo rty - fo u r s h o w e d m u c h lo w e r le v e ls o f c o m p lia n c e … ” , w h ic h su g g e sts a p ro p o rtio n a lly h ig h e r d e g re e o f w a rn in g c o m p re h e n sio n a n d in v o c a tio n o f th e c o rre c t re sp o n se a m o n g th e e ld e rly (> 6 5 y e a rs) ( 6 1 ) .

G iv e n th e in c re a sin g ly te c h n o c ra tic a p p ro a c h to d isa ste r risk re d u c tio n in m a n y d e v e lo p e d c o u n trie s, h o w e v e r, P e e k ( 5 9 ) a n d M a y h o rn ( 6 2 ) s u g g e st th a t a stro n g lim ita tio n to fu tu re E W S s c a n b e se e n w ith p o te n tia l c h a n g e s in th e “ p e rc e p tio n , a tte n tio n , m e m o ry , te x t c o m p re h e n sio n a n d d e c isio n m a k in g ” o f p e o p le s a s th e y a g e . S u c h b e h a v io u rs m a y in flu e n c e firstly w h e th e r a m e ss a g e is re c e iv e d , a s a re su lt o f c h o ic e s to n o t in v e st in n e w te c h n o lo g ie s su c h a s so c ia l n e tw o rk in g , a u to m a te d in te rn e t w a rn in g n o tific a tio n s, o r e v e n c e llu la r te le p h o n e s, a n d se c o n d ly w h e th e r a n y a c tio n is ta k e n a t a ll ( 6 2 ) . W ith th is in m in d , P e e k ( 5 9 ) su g g e sts th a t a la c k o f c o n ju n c tio n re g a rd in g th e fin d in g s o f h isto ric a l stu d ie s m a y b e a ttrib u ta b le to d iffe re n t e ld e rly c o m m u n itie s o n re g io n a l a n d n a tio n a l sc a le s h o ld in g d iffe rin g a c c e ss to , a n d u n d e rs ta n d in g o f, te c h n o lo g ie s in v o lv e d w ith in w a rn in g s y s te m s.

15"

16"


" " " Jap an: "A ge/S ex"Projection "2050" " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " Figure"2."2:"" " "(63) a)."Projection"of"Japan’s"demographic"transition"in"terms"of"age"and"sex"for"the"year"2050 ." " (57) "b)."Projection"of"Japan’s"demographic"transition"in"terms"of"dependency"ratio"from"200792050"(from ).""

17#

# UCL#–THE#SUITABILITY#OF#EARLY#WARNING#SYSTEMS#AND#TEMPORARY#DISASTER#HOUSING#FOR#AN# AGEING#POPULATION:#A#CASE#STUDY#OF#ELDERLY#TRANSITIONAL#SHELTER#RESIDENTS#IN#POST:GEJET# JAPAN.#!

2 .3 – W h a t is ‘T ra n sitio n a l S h e lte r’

In th e d ire c t a n d lo n g e r- te rm a fte rm a th w ith in d isa ste r - h it re g io n s, a n e ffic ie n t tra n sitio n a l p h a se o f re c o v e ry , p re c e d in g re c o n stru c tio n a n d fo llo w in g re sp o n se , is im p e ra tiv e to su sta in e c o n o m ic , p o litic a l a n d so c ia l w e ll- b e in g . M a n y a c a d e m ic s, in c lu d in g A b u ln o u r ( 6 5 ) a n d Jo h n so n ( 6 6 ) , b e lie v e th a t tra n s itio n a l sh e lte r, w h ic h h e re in is u s e d in te rc h a n g e a b ly w ith th e te rm ‘te m p o ra ry h o u sin g ’ (fig u re 2 .3 ), re p re s e n ts a “ c ru c ia l” a n d “ n e c e s s a ry ” c o m p o n e n t o f re c o v e ry . H o w e v e r, th e re is a d e g re e o f c o n tro v e rs y o v e r th e s u ita b ility o f s o m e a p p ro a c h e s w ith re g a rd to a ll d e m o g r a p h ic s o f a n a ffe c te d c o m m u n ity ( 6 7 ) .

# Figure# 2.3:# Terminology# used# within# post:disaster# housing# provision;# note,# the# considerable# overlap# between# category# and# classification,# which# can# lead# to# complication# in# both# scientific# and# non:scientific# (64) publication#if#not#explicitly#defined .##


18"

T ra n sitio n a l

sh e lte r,

Q u a ra n te lli ( 6 8 ) ,

w ith in

d e s c rib e s

a

th e

c o n te x t

of

n o n - p e rm a n e n t,

d isa ste rs, yet

and

lo n g - te rm

as

d e fin e d

by

a c c o m m o d a tio n

so lu tio n , w h ic h so lv es a h o u sin g c risis re su ltin g fro m th e d isp la c e m e n t o f a p o p u la tio n su b je c t to a d v e rse c o n d itio n s. C o m m o n ly , a n d e rro n e o u sly , u se d sy n o n y m o u s ly w ith th e te rm ‘te m p o ra ry s h e lte r’, th e tw o sh o u ld b e d is tin g u ish e d on

th e ir tim e sc a le s, th e ir ro le in

tra n sitio n a l re c o v e ry , a n d

th e ir so c ia l

im p a c t ( 6 8 ) ( 6 6 ) . T h e p h ra s e ‘te m p o ra ry sh e lte r’ d e sc rib e s th e p ro v isio n o f sh o rtte rm a c c o m m o d a tio n in th e im m e d ia te “ e m e rg e n c y p h a se ” o f a d isa ste r o n ly ( 6 8 ) . T h is o fte n in v o lv e s th e u s e o f te n ts o r la rg e- sc a le p u b lic s h e lte rs in th e w e e k s fo llo w in g a n in c id e n t, a n d b y n o m e a n s c o n fo rm s to th e c o n c e p t o f a ‘h o m e ’ o fte n th e re is little ro u tin e , a n d in d iv id u a lism s a re n e g le c te d in fa v o u r o f ra p id p ro v isio n (fig u re 2 .3 ) ( 6 6 ) ( 6 8 ) . ‘T ra n sitio n a l sh e lte r’, a s a te rm , o n th e o th e r h a n d , im p lie s a m u c h g re a te r d e g re e o f p e rm a n e n t d o m ic ile ( 6 6 ) . W h e n c o n s tru c t e d w ith su ffic ie n t fo re th o u g h t, a n d a p p ro p ria te fra m e w o rk stru c tu re s, it sh o u ld a tte m p t to re d u c e so c io e c o n o m ic lo sse s, e n v iro n m e n ta l im p a c t, a n d g e n e ra l p u b lic e x p e n d itu re w h ilst a lso c a te rin g fo r th e m e d iu m - a n d lo n g - te rm n e e d s o f a ll d e m o g ra p h ic s a c c o m m o d a te d in te rm s o f b o th th e ir p h y sic a l a n d p sy c h o lo g ic a l v u ln e ra b ilitie s ( 6 9 ) ( 6 6 ) .

T h e re a re a n u m b e r o f d iffe ren t ty p e s o f te m p o ra ry h o m e , ra n g in g fro m p u rp o seb u ilt a c c o m m o d a tio n , w h ic h is m o re o fte n th a n n o t p re fa b ric a te d , sh ip p in g c o n ta in e r- lik e , a n d a sse m b le d o n- s ite (fig u re 2 .4); th ro u g h th e re n ta l o f p ree x istin g h o u sin g o u tsid e o f a d isa ste r z o n e ; to th e u se o f p re - e x istin g g o v e rn m e n t o r p u b lic h o u sin g ( 7 0 ) ( 7 1 ) . A c c o m m o d a tio n is e sta b lish e d w ith th e o b je c tiv e o f p ro v id in g su sta in a b le , lo w - c o st h o u sin g la stin g o n a sc a le o f w e e k s to y e a rs, a n d is o fte n a c h ie v e d w ith v a ry in g d e g re e s o f s u c c e ss ( 7 2 ) . O fte n , k e y c rite ria su c h a s th e n e e d fo r th e im p le m e n ta tio n o f D R R p o lic ie s , b u ild b a c k b e tte r s tra te g ie s re g a rd in g p e rm a n e n t re c o n stru c tio n , a n d th e u se o f lo c a l k n o w le d g e a n d e x p e rtise a re o v e rlo o k e d o r ig n o re d in fa v o u r o f th e ra p id d e p lo y m e n t o f tra n sitio n a l sh e lte r ( 7 3 ) ( 7 4 ) . T h is is p a rtic u la rly a n issu e in c o u n trie s w h e re re c o n stru c tio n a n d re c o v e ry n e e d to b e p la c e d in th e w id e r fra m e w o rk o f d e v e lo p m e n t, o r w h e n a n e v e n t o f e x tre m e m a g n itu d e h a s o c c u rre d : a s se e n w ith th e c u rre n t c a se o f p o st- G E J E T J a p a n ( 7 3 ) ( 7 4 ) .


A.#

B.#

Figure"2.4:"Examples"of"a"typical"prefabricated"transitional"shelter."‘A’"is"a"photo"of" TSC" in" the" developed" (75)(76)(71) world"from"the"2011"GEJET"(Jyobon,"Miyagi),"below"which"is"an"archetypal"floor"plan"for"structures ." ‘B’" depicts" transitional" shelter" in" developing" world:" this" example" is" a" structure" in" the" wake" of" the" 2012" (64) typhoon"season"in"the"Philippines,"with"a"typical"floor"plan"below ."

19"

20"


2 .3 .1 – I m p o r ta n c e o f th e S p h e re H a n d b o o k

In h is p a p e r ‘T h e p o st-d isa ste r te m p o ra ry d w e llin g : F u n d a m en ta ls o f p ro v isio n , d e sig n a n d c o n stru c tio n ’, A b u ln o u r ( 6 5 ) e m p h a sise s th e ro le o f te m p o ra ry h o u sin g so lu tio n s a s “ in c u b a to rs ” to th e m o s t v u ln e ra b le in s o c ie ty : a fu n c tio n th a t e x te n d s fro m th e a fte rm a th o f th e e m e rg e n c y p h a se to th e c o m p le tio n o f p e rm a n e n t h o u sin g in e ith e r p riv a te o r p u b lic , g o v e rn m e n t - e n d o rse d , fo rm s. In o rd e r to ‘in c u b a te ’, h e a rg u e s th a t te m p o ra ry h o u sin g so lu tio n s, a n d in d e e d w id e r re c o v e ry stra te g ie s a s a w h o le , n e e d to fo c u s o n th e le v e l o f d iv e rsity w ith in d isa ste r su rv iv o rs, a n d ca te r to th e m a c c o rd in g ly to stim u la te so c ia l, e c o n o m ic a n d p o litic a l re c o v e ry ( 6 5 ) . T h e e x p lo ra tio n o f p re v io u s d is a s te rs , b o th in J a p a n (K o b e , 1 9 9 5 – s e c tio n 2 .3 .2 .1 ) a n d fu rth e r a fie ld (A rm e n ia , C o lo m bia , 1 9 9 9 ( 7 3 ) ) su p p o rts th is n o tio n ; s u g g e stin g th a t the q u a lity a n d p ro v isio n o f te m p o ra ry h o u sin g d ire c tly in flu e n c e s re c o v e ry o n c o n g lo m e ra tive a n d in d iv id u a l sc a le s, w ith th e p o te n tia l to h o ld a p o la ris in g , o r e v e n is o la tin g e ffe c t w h e n th e c o m p le x itie s o f so c ie tie s a re ig n o re d ( 7 7 ) ( 7 3 ) .

In re c e n t y e a rs, a tte m p ts h a v e b e e n m a d e to sta n d a rd ise h u m a n ita ria n re sp o n se to d isa ste r, w ith T S C s b e in g o n e o f m a n y fo c i. T h is sta n d a rd isa tio n is la id d o w n in th e S p h e re P ro je c t’s M in im u m S ta n d a r d s in H u m a n ita r ia n R e s p o n s e ( 7 8 ) . F irs t p u b lish e d in 2 0 0 0 , fo llo w in g fo u r y e a rs o f d e lib e ra tio n w ith N G O s, it o u tlin e s a n u m b e r o f m in im u m re q u ire m e n ts fo r w a te r s u p p ly , fo o d s e c u rity , h y g ie n e a n d sa n ita tio n , a n d , m o s t im p o rta n tly to th is th e s is , s h e lte r a n d s e ttle m e nt ( 7 9 ) . W h ils t o n ly g u id e lin e s, a n d n o t e n fo rc e d b y a n y fo rm o f in te rn a tio n a l h u m a n ita ria n la w , a n u m b e r o f a u th o rs te stify to b o th th e im p a c t a n d fu tu re p o te n tia l o f th e p ro je c t’s re c o m m e n d a tio n s fo r d is a s te r re s p o n s e ( 8 0 ) . C o n s is tin g o f s ix k e y sta n d a rd s in stra te g ic p la n n in g , th e h a n d b o o k g a in e d c o n s id e ra b le re s p e c t fo llo w in g its s u c c e s sfu l im p le m e n ta tio n d u rin g th e T ra n sitio n a l A c c o m m o d a tio n P ro je c t fo llo w in g th e 2 0 0 4 In d ia n O c e a n ts u n a m i, a n d h a s s in c e b e e n a d o p te d a s a n in te rn a tio n a l sta n d a rd b y th e U N a n d m a n y N G O s ( 8 1 ) . S o m e a u th o rs, h o w e v e r, h a v e q u e stio n e d th e a pp lic a b ility o f id e n tic a l sta n d a rd s, lis te d b e lo w , a n d fu lly e x p lo re d in a p p e n d ix 1 , to d e v e lo p e d a n d d e v e lo p in g n a tio n s a n a lo g o u sly ( 8 2 ) .

1 . S tra te g ic P la n n in g : (m a in ta in s e c u rity ; h e a lth ; w e llb e in g )

2 . P h y sic a l P la n n in g : (s e lf m a n a g e m e n t; p re - e x istin g so c ia l n e tw o rk s


21"

3 . C o v e re d L iv in g S p a c e : (flo o r s p a c e o f 3 .5 2 m 2 p e r p e rso n )

4 . D e s ig n : (e th ic s ; a v a ila b le , s u ita b le m a te ria ls )

5 . C o n stru c tio n : (s a fe , lo c a l b u ild in g te c h n iq u e s ; lo c a l w o rk fo rc e )

6 . E n v iro n m e n ta l

Im p a c t:

(e th ic a l

e n v iro n m e n ta l

s o u rc in g

and

TSC

o p e ra tio n ) (78)(82)

2 .3 .2 - T h e J a p a n e se T e m p o ra ry H o u sin g S tra te g y

T e m p o ra ry h o u s in g p ro v is io n h a s b e e n a s ta p le o f th e G o v e rn m e n t o f J a p a n ’s (G o J ) n a tu ra l a n d a n th ro p o g e n ic d isa ste r p o lic y sin c e th e c re a tio n o f th e D is a s te r R e lie f A c t (D R A ) ( 7 1 ) . E n a c te d in 1 9 4 7 , a n d re v ise d in 1 9 8 4 , th e D R A in so m e w a y s m irro rs th e m o re fa m o u s S ta ffo rd A c t (1 9 8 8 ) u tilise d b y th e U n ite d S ta te s ( 8 3 ) . It is a la w th ro u g h w h ic h th e G o J is m a n d a te d to p ro v id e a ssista n c e to “ p e rso n s w h o h a v e b e e n su b je c t to a d isa ste r… a n d re q u ire R e lie f A c tiv itie s w ith in th e te rrito ry o f a m u n ic ip a lity ” ( 8 4 ) . Its o b je c tiv e is to p ro te c t d is a s te r v ic tim s

and

m a in ta in

p u b lic

o rd e r;

a

c o n d itio n

sa fe g u a rd e d

th ro u g h

th e

c o lla b o ra tiv e e ffo rt o f th e Ja p a n e se R e d C ro ss, p u b lic b o d ie s, a n d “ th e p e o p le o f Ja p a n ” ( 8 4 ) . U n d e r A rtic le 2 3 , th e re a re n in e m a in ty p e s o f “ R e lie f A c tiv ity ”: th e c o st fo r th e ir p ro v isio n b e in g in c u rre d b y th e p re fe c tu ra l g o v e rn m e n t fo r w h ic h th e y a re re q u ire d ( 8 4 ) . A c tiv itie s ra n g e fro m m e d ic a l a n d p re - /p o st- n a ta l c a re to in te rm e n t, a n d in c lu d e th e a llo c a tio n a n d im p le m e n ta tio n o f T S C s tra te g ie s ( 8 4 ) .

2 .3 .2 .1 – K o b e ’s E x a m p le

G o v e rn e d b y th e B u ild in g S ta n d a rd s L a w o f 1 9 7 0 , te m p o ra ry d isa ste r h o u sin g in Ja p a n s ta n d s o n th e p rin c ip le th a t T S C s w ill m a in ta in a w in d o w o f o p e ra b ility fo r a m a x im u m o f tw o to th re e y e a rs ( 8 5 ) ( 8 6 ) . It w a s , a n d to s o m e d e g re e s till is , e x p e c te d th a t re sid e n ts o f te m p o ra ry u n its w o u ld u s e p e rs o n a l fu n d s a n d fin a n c e s fro m in s u ra n c e c o v e ra g e to re c o n s tru c t th e ir h o m e s d u rin g th is p e rio d , o r, fa ilin g th a t, re lo c a te to p u b lic h o u sin g in th e th ird y e a r o f th e d isa ste r tra n sitio n ( 8 5 ) . H o w e v e r, in th e e x a m p le o f th e K o b e , o r G re a t H a n s h in , e a rth q u a k e o f 1 9 9 5 , re sid e n ts w e re still w ith in g o v e rn m e n t T S C s u p to fiv e y e a rs a fte r th e d isa ste r stru c k . E d g in g to n ( 8 5 ) s u g g e s ts th a t lo n g re s id e n c y p e rio d s w e re th e re su lt o f a d e la y in th e in itia tio n o f a p u b lic h o u sin g p ro g ra m m e ; a v ie w th a t su c h h o u sin g

22"


w a s a c tu a lly o f s u b - s ta n d a rd q u a lity ; th e fa c t th a t a c c o m m o d a tio n w a s re n t- fre e ; a n d th e e c o n o m ic a n d d e m o g ra p h ic sta tu s o f m a n y o f th e re sid e n ts. C o n tra stin g w h a t lo n g re s id e n c y p e rio d s m a y s u g g e s t, h o w e v e r, a n u m b e r o f a u th o rs s tip u la te th a t c o n d itio n s u n d e r w h ic h d isp la c e d p e rso n s liv e d fo llo w in g K o b e w e re le ss th a n id e a l. A c c o rd in g to S h a w ( 8 6 ) , in a n a n a ly sis o f c o m m u n ity a p p ro a c h e s D R R , T S C s in K o b e su ffe re d fro m p o o r liv in g c o n d itio n s in c lu d in g a la c k o f p riv a c y , re su ltin g fro m th in w a lls a n d a g rid- p a tte rn a rra n g e m e n t; in a d e q u a te h e a t in su la tio n ; a n d s o c ia l is o la tio n d u e to a llo c a tio n th ro u g h a lo tte ry sy ste m . A la c k o f c o m m u n ity , w h ic h p re c ip ita te d a n “ iso la te d life sty le ” w ith in c o m p le x e s, le d to so m e a u th o rs a ttrib u tin g th e stru c tu re s to in c re a se d risk o f a lc o h o lism , c o ro n a ry h e a rt d ise a se , a n d s o lita ry d e a th ( 8 7 ) . A ta b le o f c ritic is m , is s u e s , a n d e n d o rse m e n ts a sso c ia te d w ith K o b e T S C s b y a n u m b e r o f a u th o rs in th is fie ld c a n b e se e n o v e rle a f (ta b le 2 .2 ). S h a w a n d G o d a ( 8 8 ) c ite a n u m b e r o f ‘le sso n s to b e le a rn t’ fro m th e te m p o ra ry h o u sin g situ a tio n in K o b e , su c h a s in c re a se d in c o rp o ra tio n o f th e c o m m u n ity in d e c isio n - m a k in g , m a in ta in in g c o m m u n ity v a lu e s a n d tra d itio n s, a n d c re a tin g b u sin e ss o p p o rtu n itie s, a n d th e re h a v e b e e n so m e c h a n g e s to p u b lic p o lic y fo llo w in g th e d is a s te r. T h is in c lu d e s a re d u c tio n in th e n u m b e r o f e ld e rly re sid e n ts w h o a re p e rm itte d to liv e a lo n e in te m p o ra ry h o u sin g , in a n a tte m p t to re d u c e so lita ry d e a th s (‘k o d o k u sh i’) ( 8 8 ) . A la c k o f c o n s id e ra b le d is a s te rs fo r Ja p a n o v e r th e la st tw o d e c a d e s sin c e K o b e, h o w e v e r, h a s re su lte d in th e m a jo rity o f n e w stra te g y b e in g u n te ste d u n til la rg e- s c a le im p le m e n tatio n is re q u ire d : a s se e n w ith th e c u rre n t G E JE T situ a tio n ( 8 9 ) ( 8 6 ) .


Table"2.2:""A"number"of"definitions"of"the"term"vulnerability."General"trends"among"definitions"include"the" concept" of" vulnerability" being" an" in9built" or" inherent" factor," and" that" this" factor" is" governed" strongly" by" degree"of"exposure."References"in"descending"order:(90)(88)(73)(89)."

23"


3.0 – Context 3 .1 – G r e a t E a s te rn J a p a n E a rth q u a k e a n d T s u n a m i (G E J E T ) S trik in g a t 1 4 :4 6 :2 3 JS T (5 :4 6 :2 3 U T C ) o n 1 1 t h M a rc h 2 0 1 1 , G E J E T re p re se n ts o n e o f th e w o rst c o m p o u n d d isa ste rs e x p e rie n c e d b y th e A sia- P a c ific re g io n in th e m o d e rn e ra (fig u re 3 .1 ) ( 9 1 ) ( 9 2 ) . A ls o te rm e d th e T ō h o k u- o k i e a rth q u a k e a n d tsu n a m i ( o k i m e a n in g o ffsh o re ), th e e v e n t re g iste re d 9 .0 o n th e m o m e n t m a g n itu d e sc a le (M W ), a n d w a s trig g e re d b y fra c tu re , a n d su b se q u e n t e n e rg y re le a se , a lo n g a 4 4 0 k m se c tio n o f th e P a c ific- O k h o ts k p la te b o u n d ary ( 9 3 ) . S e ism ic ity

c re a te d

b o th

a

n a tu ra l

and

a n th ro p o g e n ic

d isa ste r:

th e

la tte r

m a n ife stin g a s a lo ss o f c o n ta in m e n t a t th e F u k u sh im a D a iic h i n u c le a r p o w e r p la n t ( 9 2 ) . In to ta l, o v e r 1 9 ,5 0 0 liv e s w e re lo st, a n d a d isp la c e d p o p u la tio n

J A P A N

24"

IWATE#

Epicentre)

MIYAGI# FUKUSHIMA#

P A C I F I C O C E A N

Figure"3.1:"Diagrammatic"indicating"maximum"tsunami"inundation"(local"measure"of"tsunami"height" above" sea" level)" and" run9up" (elevation" from" sea" level" at" maximum" inundation)" heights" along" the" th

east"coastline"of"Japan"on"the"11 "March"2011

(91)"


sta n d in g a t c lo s e to 45 0 ,0 0 0 w a s sy n th e sise d - a fig u re th a t a c c o u n te d fo r 3 % o f th e g lo b a l to ta l fo r th a t y e a r ( 9 4 ) ( 7 0 ) ( 9 5 ) . T h re a te n e d b y th e in u n d a tio n o f ~ 5 5 0 k m 2 o f a g ric u ltu ra l a n d h a b ita b le la n d , th e m a jo rity o f th is d isp la c e d p o p u la tio n h a d b e e n e v a c u a te d p re c e d in g a tsu na m i w a v e o f b e tw e e n 3 .4 9 a n d 3 7 .9 m in ru n - u p h e ig h t (fig u re 3 .1 ) th a t h a d d e v a s ta te d a 2 ,0 0 0 k m s tre tc h o f th e T ō h o k u c o a stlin e ( 9 3 ) ( 9 2 ) ( 9 6 ) .

T h e Iw a te , F u k u sh im a a n d M iy a g i p re fe c tu re s - p ro v in c e s situ a te d c lo se st to th e e p ic e n tre o f th e T ō h o k u e a rth q u a k e (< 8 0 k m ) - w e re th e m o st se v e re ly h it in re g a rd to d e m o g ra p h ic a n d in fra stru c tu ra l lo sse s (fig u re 3 .2 ) ( 9 2 ) . M iy a g i, o f th e th re e , fe lt th e stro n g e st re p e rc u ssio n s, w ith 5 7 % o f a ll o f d isa ste r fa ta litie s o c c u rrin g w ith in its d istric ts, a n d m o rta lity ra te s o f u p to 1 3 .5 % re c o rd e d in a n u m b e r o f its m u n ic ip a litie s (ta b le 3 .1 ) ( 9 2 ) . W h ils t d e a th ra tio a c ro ss th e p re fe c tu re w a s m a rk e d ly lo w e r th a n th o se o f p re v io u s h isto ric a l e v e n ts, su c h a s th e M e ji a n d S a n rik u tsu n a m is o f 1 8 9 6 a n d 1 9 3 3 re sp e c tiv e ly (fig u re 3 .2), a n a v e ra g e o f 4 .2 % w a s, n e v e rth e le ss, re c o rd e d in a stu d y b y E E R I ( 9 8 ) . E v e n in m u n ic ip a litie s w ith re la tiv e ly lo n g a rriv a l tim e s, th e n u m b e r o f d e a d a n d m issin g

IW A T E #P RE F E C T U R E#

M IY A G I# P R EF EC T U RE#

Figure"3.2:"Death"ratio"(%"of"total"municipal"population"killed),"and"damage"ratio"(%"of"original" building" value" required" for" repair)" for" residential9use" properties" for" the" worst" affected" municipalities" in" the" Iwate" (blue)" and" Miyagi" (yellow)" prefectures" (see" figure" 3.1)." Black" (97) outlines"indicate"areas"where"studies"were"conducted"in"the"creation"of"this"thesis ."

25"

26"


Table"3.1:"Summary"of"the"effects"and"characteristics"of"the"tsunami"wave"on"populations"across"the"Miyagi" (98) Prefecture;"highlighted"locations"are"those"where"surveys"in"TSCs"were"conducted .""


o fte n e x c e e d e d 5 0 0 in to ta l (tab le 3 .1 ) ( 9 8 ) ( 1 0 0 ) . E ld e rly c itiz e n s e x h ib ite d th e g re a te st v u ln e ra b ility re g a rd in g th e d isa ste r’s th rea t to life ; th o se o v e r 6 5 , w h o in th e 2 0 1 0 G o J c e n su s a c c o u n te d fo r le ss th a n 2 3 % o f b o th M iy a g i’s a n d th e to ta l Ja p a n e s e p o p u la tio n , c o m p rise d m o re th a n 4 7 % o f th e to ta l d e a th to ll, a n d th o se o v e r 6 0 (p re sc rib e d a s th e U N ’s m in im u m a g e fo r d e fin itio n o f “ e ld e rly ” , a n d th e a g e o f m a n d a to ry re tire m e n t in Ja p a n ) c o m p rise d 6 5 % o f m o rta lity (fig u re 3 .3 ) ( 1 0 1 ) ( 7 0 ) ( 1 0 2 ) ( 1 0 3 ) ( 9 9 ) ( 1 7 ) ( 1 0 4 ) .

< 10 2%

10-19 5% 20-29 4%

80 < 22%

30-39 6%

40-49 7%

50-59 11%

70-79 25% UN’s"minimum"age"for"classification"as" (17) “elderly”"in"the"developed"world"(60+) ."

60-69 18%

Figure" 3.3:" Proportion" of" total" deaths" (18,634)" by" age." Those" >60" years" old" comprise" 65%" of" fatalities" (99) (12,112)(modified"from )." "

27"

28"


3 .2 – M iy a g i’s P o st-G E J E T T e m p o r a r y H o u s in g

F o llo w in g G E J E T ’s “ e m e rg e n c y p h a se ” ( 1 0 5 ) , la rg e- s c a le T S C p ro je c ts w e re a d o p te d

by

p re fe c tu ra l

g o v e rn m e n ts

a c ro s s

J a p a n ’s

a c c o m m o d a te a sh a re o f th e d isp la c e d p o p u la tio n

(70)

Honshu

Is la n d

to

. M iy a g i h a d 5 3 ,3 1 6

tra n sitio n a l u n its p la n n e d w ithin e ig h t d a y s o f th e d isa ste r , a n d o v e r th e ne x t tw e lv e m o n th s, ~ 5 3 ,0 0 0 w e re c o n s tru c te d ( 7 0 ) ( 1 0 6 ) . A lm o st fo u r y e a rs o n , h o w e v e r, a n d fo llo w in g th e e m p lo y m e n t o f a sta te - w id e tra n s itio n a l d is a s te r re c o v e ry (‘fu k k y ū ’) p ro g ra m m e , w h ic h a im e d to c o n stru c t 2 9 ,0 0 0 p e rm a n e n t p u b lic h o u se s b y 2 0 1 6 th ro u g h th e e sta b lish m e n t o f a J a p a n e se R e c o n stru c tio n A g e n c y (J R A ), a lm o st

3 6 ,0 0 0

of

th e

d isp la c e d

re m a in e d

w ith in

th e

TSCs

a c ro ss

M iy a g i ( 7 0 ) ( 1 0 7 ) ( 1 0 8 ) . A s o f O c to b e r 2 0 1 4 , as fe w a s 2 ,7 0 0 p u b lic h o m e s h a d b e e n c o n stru c te d a n d o c c u p ie d in a ll a ffe c te d p re fe c tu re s – ju st 9 .3 % o f th e p la n n e d 2 9 ,0 0 0 ( 1 0 8 ) . In M a rc h o f 2 0 1 5 , th e JR A re v ise d c o n stru c tio n ta rg e ts fro m 2 9 ,0 0 0 to 1 0 ,0 0 0 , a n d in M iy a g i in c re a se d its tim e sc a le fo r c o m ple tio n o f a ll u n its b y tw o y e a rs to 2 0 1 8 ; fo rc in g m a n y te m p o ra ry h o u s in g re s id e n ts to m a k e a c h o ic e b e tw e e n e x p e n siv e p riv a te a c c o m m o d a tio n so lu tio n s o r re m a in in g w ith in T S C s lo n g - te rm ( 1 0 8 ) .

A s o b lig a te d b y la w , th e G o J h a s th re e o p tio n s w h e n it c o m e s to p o st- d isa ste r h o u sin g p ro v isio n , th e s e b e in g th e c o n s tru c tio n o f ‘n e w te m p o ra ry u n its’ (ta b le 3 .2 & fig u re 3 .4 ), u tilisin g p riv a te re n ta l a p a rtm e n ts, o r u se o f p re - e x istin g g o v e rn m e n t- o w n e d h o u sin g ; th o u g h a c o m b in a tio n o f a ll th re e is m o st c o m m o n ly u se d ( 7 1 ) . F o llo w in g G E J E T , 3 9 % o f s o lu tio n s w e re c la s s ifie d a s ‘n e w te m p o ra ry u n its’ (T S C s) o u t o f th e to ta l o f ~ 5 3 ,0 0 0 p ro p o se d c o n stru c tio n s (ta b le 3 .2 & fig u re 3 .5 ) ( 7 1 ) . T h e c o n stru c tio n o f te m p o ra ry h o u sin g is stric tly re g u la te d in Ja p a n e s e la w in o rd e r to p rev e n t o v e rsp e n d in g a n d a d h e re to m in im u m , g o v e rn m e n t- p re sc rib e d , sta n d a rd s o f q u a lity . C u rre n t G E JE T te m p o ra ry u n its h a v e a m in im u m flo o r sp a c e o f 2 9 .7 m 2 (7 0 .5 3 m 2 sm a lle r th a n th e a v e ra g e siz e o f c o n v e n tio n a l re sid e n c e s in M iy a g i) a n d it is stip u la te d th a t th e c o n stru c tio n c o st o f e a c h u n it b e re stric te d to ¥ 2 ,3 8 7 ,0 0 0 (~ U S $ 1 9 ,0 0 0 ) ( 7 1 ) . H o w e v e r, fo llo w in g a G o J o v e rs p e n d , th e G E J E T tra n s itio n a l s h e lte r u n its a c tu a lly c o st b e tw e e n $ 7 1 ,0 0 0 - 8 0 ,5 0 0 e a c h : m o re th a n tw ic e th a t o f K o b e , 1 9 9 5 ( 1 0 9 ) .


Table" 3.2:" " An" overview" of" the" temporary" housing" situation" in" each" of" the" three" most" severely" affected" prefectures" along" the" Honshu" coastline." Miyagi," the" focus" of" this" study," experienced" considerably" greater" "(70) losses"in"homes"and"lives"compared"to"both"Fukushima"and"Iwate .""

W h ils t a t h ig h c o st re la tiv e to o th e r d isa ste r h o u sin g , su c h a s so lu tio n s fo r th e 2 0 1 1 h u rric a n e se a so n in th e P h ilip p in e s, w h e re te m p o ra ry h o u sin g w ith a fiv ey e a r life sp a n c o st b e tw e e n U S $ 5 3 2- 2 1 2 8 , o r th e stru c tu re s c re a te d fo llo w in g th e H a iti 2 0 1 0 e a rth q u a k e , w h e re h o m e s h a d a 5 - 1 0 y e a r life sp a n a n d c o st b e tw e e n U S $ 2 ,7 4 6 - 5 ,6 8 3 , it is w o rth n o tin g th a t stru c tu re s a sso c ia te d w ith G E J E T a re ty p ic a lly o f m u c h h ig h e r q u a lity ( 6 4 ) ( 7 1 ) . S o m e h o u sin g e v e n in c lu d e s d o u b le g la z in g , im p ro v e d in su la tio n, a n d w in d b re a k s ( 7 1 ) . F u rth e rm o re , w h ils t a c tu a lly m a n d a tin g a flo o r sp a c e th a t is in fa c t 0 .3 m 2 sm a lle r th a n th e lo w e r 3 0 m 2 b ra c k e t p re sc rib e d w ith in th e S p h e re P ro je c t ( 7 9 ) , G E J E T h o m e s a re la rg e r th a n m a n y te m p o ra ry h o u sin g so lu tio n s (fig u re 3 .4 ) ( 7 1 ) . In te sta m e n t to th is, th e te m p o ra ry h o m e s in th e P h ilip p in e s , 2 0 1 1 , a n d H a iti, 2 0 1 0 , h a d p re sc rib e d flo o r sp a c e s o f ju st 1 7 .7 6 - 2 0 m 2 a n d 1 7 .6 4 m 2 re sp e c tiv e ly ( 6 4 ) .

29"

30"


2

Figure"3.4:""Schematics"of"two"standard9size"(~29m )"temporary"housing"units"from"Kesennuma"City."Floor" 2"(76)(71) size"is"typically"29m ." " "

Government-owned accommodation (7%) (9,832) Public Housing (6%) (8,238)

(65,692 )

(52,182 )

" Figure"3.5:"Figures"from"Japan’s"Disaster"Management"Agency"showing"the"number"and"relative"percentage" th of"accommodation"types"allocated"or"chosen"as"of"27 "December,"2011"–"approximately"45%"of"these"were" (109) planned"for"Miyagi"prefecture ."

"

1"

Figure"3.6:"The"number"of"temporary"housing"units"planned,"commenced"and"completed"by"the"Ministry"of"Land," th th "(106) Infrastructure,"Transport"and"Tourism"(MLIT)"between"the"months"of"March"(19 )"2011"and"March"(13 )"2012 .

Month/Day"

UCL"–THE"SUITABILITY"OF"EARLY"WARNING"SYSTEMS"AND"TEMPORARY"DISASTER"HOUSING"FOR"AN" AGEING"POPULATION:"A"CASE"STUDY"OF"ELDERLY"TRANSITIONAL"SHELTER"RESIDENTS"IN"POST9GEJET" JAPAN."!

o "

Unit"N

Planned'

Commenced'

Completed'

Construction" Commenced"

Construction" Completed"

32#

UCL#–THE#SUITABILITY#OF#EARLY#WARNING#SYSTEMS#AND#TEMPORARY#DISASTER#HOUSING#FOR#AN# AGEING#POPULATION:#A#CASE#STUDY#OF#ELDERLY#TRANSITIONAL#SHELTER#RESIDENTS#IN#POST: GEJET#JAPAN.#!

3.3 – The GEJET EWS

S in c e 2 0 0 7 th e J a p a n e s e M e te o ro lo g ic a l A g e n c y (J M A ) h a s o p e ra te d o n e o f th e m o s t c o m p re h e n siv e e a rth q u a k e a n d tsu n a m i w a rn in g sy ste m s in th e w o rld ( 1 1 0 ) . It fo rm s a c ritic a l p a rt o f th e n a tio n ’s e m e rg e n c y m a n a g e m e n t sy ste m , a n d w a s u tilise d to d isse m in a te w a rn in g s a c ro ss th e T ō h o k u re g io n o n th e 3 r d o f M a rc h 2 0 1 1 ( 1 1 0 ) . A t th e tim e o f G E JE T , th e JM A o p e ra te d a d u a l sy ste m , w h e re b y firstly a n e a rth q u a k e w a rn in g w a s is s u e d , m e a s u re d fro m a n e tw o rk o f 2 8 0 s e is m o m e te rs, fo llo w e d b y a tsu n a m i

w a rn in g

if

n e c e ssa ry ,

b a se d

upon

h y p o c e n tre

(fo c u s)

lo c a tio n

and

m a g n itu d e re fe re n c e d a g a in st d a ta b a se o f p a st a n d c o m p u te r - s im u la te d tsu n a m is , a n d tid e g a u g e o b se rv a tio n s (fig u re 3 .7 ) ( 1 1 1 ) . In itia l w a rn in g s o f e a rth q u a k e a n d tsu n a m i w e re s e n t o u t w ith re la tiv e ra p id ity u n d e r th is sy ste m , w ith su b se q u e n t u p d a te s to w a rn in g s issu e d a s m o re in fo rm a tio n b e c a m e a v a ila b le ( 1 1 1 ) .

Figure#3.7:##Right:#2004#Map#of#the#JMA’s#Seismic#Observation#Network,#which#is#composed#of#280# seismometers#(150#of#which#are#shown).#Left:#1998#Map#of#the#77#tidal#gauge#observation#points,#also#used#by# (112) the#JMA .#


F o llo w in g th e d e te c tio n o f e a rth q u a k e P- w a v e s (th e m o s t ra p id , c o m p re s s io n a l w a v e fo rm w ith in s e is m o lo g y ) a t 1 4 :4 6 :4 0 .2 J S T o n th e 3 th M a rc h 2 0 1 1 , it to o k ju st 5 .4 se c o n d s fo r th e E a rth q u a k e E a rly W a rn in g (E E W ) sy ste m to c o n d u c t a p re lim in a ry m a g n itu d e a n a ly sis (ta b le 3 .3 ) ( 1 1 3 ) . 3 .2 s e c o n d s la te r a n e a rth q u a k e w a rn in g w a s is s u e d a s a s h a k in g in te n s ity o f 5 w a s re g is te re d , a n d a ts u n a m i w a rn in g fo llo w e d a t 1 4 :4 9 ; th re e m in u te s a fte r th e o n se t o f th e e a rth q u a k e ( 1 1 1 ) ( 1 1 3 ) . E a rth q u a k e a n d tsu n a m i w a rn in g sy ste m s a re a tra d e o ff b e tw e e n sp e e d a n d a c c u ra c y , h o w e v e r, a n d , w h ilst th e E E W w a s issu e d 1 5 se c o n d s b e fo re c o n sid e ra b le g ro u n d sh a k in g , th e in itia l p ro je c tio n fo r th e e a rth q u a k e ’s m a g n itu d e (M W ) w a s s u p e rs e d e d 1 2 0 s e c o n d s in to th e e v e n t, w h e n s e is m ic m o m e n t e x c e e d e d 8 .1 M W , a n d s e is m o m e te rs b e c a m e s atu ra te d d u e to in te n se sh a k in g ( 1 1 1 ) ( 1 1 4 ) ( 1 1 5 ) . T h is in te n s e s h a k in g re s u lte d in a n in itia l d ra m a tic u n d e re stim a te o f tsu n a m i m a g n itu d e ( 1 1 1 ) . O u t b y a s m u c h a s 3 0 0 % , p re lim in a ry e stim a te s w e re n o t u p d a te d u n til th e tsu n a m i w a s d e te c te d b y a M in istry o f L a n d , In fra stru c tu re , T ra n sp o rt a n d T o u rism (M L IT ) b u o y ~ 1 0 k m o ff th e c o a st o f Iw a te P re fe c tu re a t 1 5 :1 0 , a n d a g a in a t 1 5 :3 0 w h e n th e tsu n a m i p a sse d o th e r tid e g a u g e s (fig u re 3 .8 ) ( 1 1 1 ) .

Table#3.3:##Time#of#the#first#P:wave#arrival#against#the#estimated#magnitude#and#shaking#intensity#issued#by# (113) the#JMA,#including#the#first#warning#at#14:14:48#JST .#

33#

34#


Figure#3.8:#Estimated#tsunami#heights#issued#in#tsunami#warnings#and#updates#versus#recorded#data#for#run:up# (111) heights#along#the#Tohoku#coastline .#

W ith re g a rd to d is s e m in a tio n , J a p a n is w e ll e q u ip p e d i n te rm s o n th e n u m b e r o f m e d ia th ro u g h w h ic h it m a y issu e a w a rn in g . P rim a ry issu a n c e is th e re sp o n sib ility o f JM A o b se rv a to rie s, w h ic h u tilise th e L o c a l A u to m a te d D a ta E d itin g a n d S w itc h in g S y ste m (L A D E S S ) to n o tify g o v e rn m e n t o ffic e s a n d re le v a n t p re fe c tu re s w ith in a n a ffe c te d re g ion (fig u re 3 .9 ) ( 1 1 6 ) ( 1 1 7 ) . W a rn in g m e d ia a d o p te d b y th e G o J in c lu d e sire n s, c o m p le te w ith v o ic e b ro a d c a stin g c a p a b ility to issu e in stru c tio n s , a n d u p to a 2 k m p ro je c tio n ; a u to m a te d b illb o a rd s a n d sig n s ; a S im u lta n e o u s A n n o u n c e m e n t W ire le ss S y ste m S A W S , w h ic h c a n tra n s m it to h o sp ita ls, sc h o o ls a n d e m e rg e n c y

management

a g e n c ie s;

te le v isio n

and

m e ssa g e s; a n d c o m m u n ity te le p h o n e n e tw o rk s ( 1 1 6 ) ( 1 1 7 ) .

ra d io ;

a u to m a te d

te le p h o n e

" " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " "

!

(S e is mo m e te r )"

(LADESS/SAWS)"

1"

Figure"3.9:""Diagrammatic"of"the"LADESS"system,"illustrating"how"following"the"receipt"of"a"PAwave,"a"seismograph"can"issue"an"alert" to"an"observatory"through,"which"can"then"utilize"the"LADESS"and"SAWS"systems"to"disseminate"a"warning"amongst"a"municipalities" "(118) populace .

36#


4.0- Methodology: 4 .1 – O u tlin e o f R e s e a r c h , H y p o th e s e s , an d Q u e s tio n s

T h is th e sis is in te n d e d to c o n trib u te to a c o m p re h e n siv e u n d e rsta n d in g o f th e s u ita b ility o f e a rth q u a k e a n d ts u n a m i w a rn in g s y s te m s , th e ir s u b s e q u e n t e v a c u a tio n m a n d a te s, a n d tra n sitio n a l sh e lte r, a lso te rm e d ‘te m p o ra ry h o u sin g ’, w ith re g ard to J a p a n ’s a g e in g p o p u la tio n . T h ro u g h a re s id e n ts ’ q u e s tio n n a ire , a n d in fo rm a l in te rv ie w s c o n d u c te d b y U n iv e rsity C o lle g e L o n d o n ’s In stitu te o f R isk a n d D isa ste r R e d u c tio n (U C L - IR D R ), 7 8 re sid e n ts o f T S C s a c ro ss J a p a n ’s T ō h o k u re g io n w e re s u rv e y e d w ith a v ie w to c o lle c tin g in fo rm a tio n p e rta in in g to th e fo llo w in g re se a rc h q u e stio n s: -

1 . W a s th e w a rn in g sy ste m u se d b y th e J M A s u ita b le fo r th e e ld e rly * p o p u la tio n o f M iy a g i P re fe c tu re , J a p a n ?

i. H o w c o u ld is s u e s w ith th e c u r r e n t s y s te m , if fo u n d , b e re c tifie d ?

2 . A re te m p o ra ry h o u sin g stru c tu re s, u tilise d b y th e G o J to h o u se th e d isp la c e d in th e w a k e o f G E J E T , p e rc e iv e d to b e s u ita b le fo r lo n g-te rm u se b y e ld e rly re sid e n ts ; h o w d o th e se c o m p a re to K o b e ?

In e x p lo rin g th e a b o v e re se a rc h q u e stio n s, th is th e sis a lso te sts th e a p p lic a b ility o f th re e h y p o th e se s: -

1 . M e th o d s u s e d b y th e J M A to iss u e b o th e a r th q u a k e a n d tsu n a m i w a rn in g s re su lte d in n o sig n ific a n t d iffe re n c e in th e r a te

of

r e c e ip t

fo r

th e

e ld e r ly

r e la tiv e

to

younger

g e n e ra tio n s.

* T h e “ U N a g r e e d ” W H O (17) d e f i n i t i o n o f t h e e l d e r l y i s u s e d i n t h i s p a p e r : w h e r e b y m i n i m u m a g e should be “60+ years to refer to the older population”.

UCL#–THE#SUITABILITY#OF#EARLY#WARNING#SYSTEMS#AND#TEMPORARY#DISASTER#HOUSING#FOR#AN# AGEING#POPULATION:#A#CASE#STUDY#OF#ELDERLY#TRANSITIONAL#SHELTER#RESIDENTS#IN#POST:GEJET# JAPAN.#

2. The

p h y s ic a l

s tr u c tu r e

o f,

and

str a te g ie s

37#

e m p lo y e d

r e g a r d in g , te m p o r a ry h o u sin g in M iy a g i P r e fe c tu r e c a te r s to th e n e e d s o f th e a g e d .

3 . A m o n g su rv iv o rs, E W S s w e r e a n e ffe c tiv e to o l fo r in stig a tin g e v a c u a tio n a m o n g th e e ld e rly .

4 .2 – R e se a rc h M e th o d s

B e tw e e n

2nd-5th

November

2014,

te m p o ra ry

h o u s in g

s u rv e y s

p ro v id e d

b o th

q u a n tita tiv e a n d q u a lita tiv e in fo rm a tio n o n th e d e m o gra p h ic (a g e , se x , m a rita l s ta tu s ) a n d re a c tiv e (re g a rd in g w a rn in g a n d im m e d ia te d is a s te r re s p o n s e ) c a p a c ity o f lo n g - te rm T S C re sid e n ts (≤ 4 4 m o n th s) h o u se d in th e w a k e o f G E JE T . F u rth e r, q u a lita tiv e, d a ta w a s c o lle c te d th ro u g h in fo rm a l in te rv ie w s o r d isc u ssio n s (a p p e n d ix 2 ); w h e re b y b ro a d e r q u e s tio n s w e re a s k e d re g a rd in g th e p e rc e p tio n o f th e G o J’s te m p o ra ry h o u sin g so lu tio n s, a n d th e lo n g e r- te rm p la n s o f in d iv id u a l re sid e n ts w ith in th e c o m p le x e s. U s in g th e s e s u rv e y s , in fe re n c e s h a v e b e e n m a d e re g a rd in g th e p o p u la tio n s

re m a in in g

in

te m p o ra ry

h o u sin g ;

d ra w in g

c o n c lu sio n s

re g a rd in g

s u ita b ility o f g o v e rn m e n t- e n d o rse d te m p o ra ry h o u sin g sh e lte rs a s ‘in c u b a to rs’ fo r th e e ld e rly , in a d d itio n to th e e ffic a c y o f c u rre n t E W S s to th is d e m o g ra p h ic, w e re p a rtic u la rly p e rtin e n t o b je c tiv e s ( 6 5 ) .

4 .2 .1 – I R D R T e m p o ra ry H o u sin g S u rv e y

T h e IR D R tra n s itio n a l s h e lte r re s id e n t’s s u rv e y w a s c on d u c e d o n a la te - 2 0 1 4 fie ld in v e stig a tio n w ith in 6 T S C s a lo n g J a p a n ’s T ō h o ku c o a stlin e . T h is stu d y u tilise d tw o v e rsio n s o f a re sid e n c y q u e stio n n a ire , v e rsio n ‘a ’ (a p p e n d ix 3 ) a n d ‘b ’ (a p p e n d ix 4 ), w ith 3 5 a n d 3 4 q u e stio n s re sp e c tiv e ly , c o n d u c te d a t 5 o f 6 s ite s ; a n d in fo rm a l in te rv ie w s c o n d u c te d a t a ll 6 lo c a tio n s. V a ria n c e in th e n u m b e r o f q u e stio n s, a n d in d e e d ty p e in re g a rd to q u e stio n s 1 5 a n d 2 0 o f q u e stio n n a ire ‘b ’ (w h ic h w e re n o t in c lu d e d in q u e stio n n a ire ‘a ’) a n d q u e stio n s 1 5 a n d 3 5 o f q u e stio n n a ire ‘a ’ (w h ic h w e re n o t in c lu d e d in q u e s tio n n a ire ‘b ’), g a v e lo c a l te m p o ra ry h o u sin g a u th o ritie s a c h o ic e o f w h ic h su rv e y th e y d e e m e d m o st a p p ro p ria te fo r th e ir re sid e n ts. T h is c h o ic e w a s o f c ritic a l im p o rta n c e in e sta b lish in g a v ie w p o in t th a t w a s m o st U

38#


re p re se n ta tiv e o f lo c a l o p in io n s - tra d itio n a l c u ltu ra l v ie w p o in ts w ith in Ja p a n e se s o c ie ty a s s e rt th e n e e d to re m a in m o d e s t, a n d o c c a s io n a lly p re s e n t a p o s itiv e im a g e o f c o u n try o r g o v e rn m e n t, w h ic h c a n b e e x p re sse d in sp ite o f p riv a te d o u b ts ( 1 1 9 ) .

M e m b e rs o f th e IR D R re se a rc h te a m su rv e y e d T S C s a t p re - a rra n g e d lo c a litie s in th e m u n ic ip a litie s o f N a g a m a c h i, S e n d a i C ity ; K a ra k u w a , K e se n n u m a C ity ; A k a iw a , K e s e n n u m a C ity ; U ta ts u , M in a m is a n rik u T o w n ; R ik u z e n ta k a ta a n d N a to ri C ity (fig u re 4 .1 ). D u e to b o th th e rou tin e o f life w ith in T S C s , a n d a d e sire to fo c u s u p o n e ld e rly in d iv id u a ls sp e c ific a lly , w e e k d a y a fte rn o o n s w e re c h o s e n fo r th e tim in g o f v isits. H o w e v e r, in o rd e r to p ro v id e c o m p a riso n s w ith m id d le a g e g ro u p s (4 0- 6 0 y e a rs), so m e y o u n g e r su b je c ts w e re a sk e d to c o m p le te th e q u e stio n n a ire . Rikuzentakata#

Figure#4.1:##Map#of#Miyagi#prefecture,#Honshu,#Japan.#Municipalities#in#which#surveys#were#conducted#at#the#TSCs#are# (120) highlighted#through#underlining .#One#survey#was#conducted#in#Rikuzentakata#,#which#borders#Kessenuma#City#on# the#northern#coast#(grey).##


R o le s

u n d e rta k e n

by

th e

IR D R

te a m

in c lu d e d

su p e rv isin g

th e

39#

in fillin g

of

q u e stio n n a ire s, sc rib in g fo r in d iv id u a ls w h o c o u ld n o t w rite d u e to fra ilty , o r in a fe w c a s e s illite ra c y , c o lle c tin g q u e stio n n a ire s , a n d c o n d u ctin g in fo rm a l in te rv ie w s . In

to ta l,

78

q u e stio n n a ire s

w e re

c o m p le te d

over

th e

c o u rse

of

th e

fie ld

in v e stig a tio n , w ith o p p o rtu n ist sa m p lin g th e p rim a ry m e th o d o f d a ta c o lle c tio n , a n d in fo rm a l in te rv ie w s w e re c o n d u c te d a t e a c h o f th e sa m p le site s. T h e u se o f o p p o rtu n ist sa m p lin g s te m m e d fro m tim e c o n stra in ts a n d , d u e to th e re la tiv e ly s m a ll s a m p le siz e , th e n e e d to e n s u re a m a x im u m re sp o n se ra te (ta b le 4 .1 ).

F ro m th e q u e stio n n a ire re su lts, th e a v e ra g e a g e o f re s p o n d e n ts (re s p o n s e ra te 9 2 % ) w a s 6 8 .9 (6 9 ), w ith a ra n g e o f 4 8 y e a rs, a n d a m e d ia n a g e o f 7 0 (2 4 .4 7 y e a rs a b o ve th e n a tio n a l v a lu e ) . 3 0 (3 8 .5 % ) q u e stio n n a ire re sp o n d e n ts w e re m a le, a n d 4 2 (5 3 .8 % ) fe m a le ; 6 s u b je c ts (7 .7 % ) d id n o t d isc lo se th is in fo rm a tio n. T h e m o s t s u rv e y s , 4 5 , w e re c o n d u c te d a t a T S C in K a ra k u w a , K e se n n u m a C ity . L o c a tio n s “ O th e r (A )” (1 ) a n d “ O th e r (B )” (2 ) w e re n a m e d a s su c h b e c a u se re sp o n d e n ts sta te d th e y w e re fro m d iffe re n t, u n sp e c ifie d T S C s (ta b le 4 .1 ).

No REGION

M U N I C IP A L I T Y

QUESTI ONNAIRES

N A G A M A C H I , S E N D A I ( 仙台市 ) (α)

MIYAGI

RESPONDENTS

NO 6 0 y e a rs o ld / ≤ 6 0 y e a rs o ld ) p ro d u c e s m ix e d re su lts. V a rio u s e a rth q u a k e w a rn in g m e d ia w e re fo u n d to b e le ss e ffe c tiv e a t in fo rm in g th e a g e d , p a rtic u la rly S M S a n d u n o ffic ia l w o rd o f m o u th , th o u g h th e re c o rd e d d iffe re n c e in n o n - re c e ip t o f a n y w a rn in g w a s ju st 1 .2 % ; su g g e stin g th a t th e re m a y , in fa c t, h a v e b e e n su ffic ie n t m e d ia v a ria n ts to in fo rm a ll d e m o g ra p h ic s (fig u re 5 .3 ). F u rth e rm o re , a n d p e rh a p s c o n tra ry to e x p e c ta tio n s, 7 7 .9 % o f e ld e rly re sp o n d e n ts re c e iv e d a tsu n a m i w a rn in g re la tiv e to ju st 5 7 .1 % fo r th o se u n d e r th e a g e o f 6 0 , w ith A M P m e ssa g e s, S M S a n d sire n s fo u n d to b e fa r m o re p e rv a siv e a m o n g th e f o rm e r (fig u re 5 .4 ). In a c c o u n tin g fo r th is, it is im p o rta n t to n o te th e in flu e n c e o f p re lim in a ry e a rth q u a k e w a rn in g s u p o n b e h a v io u r. G iv e n th e stro n g fo c u s o f Ja p a n e se c u ltu re o n tsu n a m i te n d e n k o – th e c o n c e p t o f in d e p e n d e n tly m o v in g to h ig h e r g ro u n d in a n e a rth q u a k e – it is p o ssib le th a t y o u n g e r g e n e ra tio n s w e re le ss lik e ly to re c e iv e a tsu n a m i w a rn in g a s th e y m a y h a v e re sp o n d e d fa ste r: le a v in g th e ir h o m e s to re a c h h ig h g ro u n d b e fo re su c h a w a rn in g w a s issu e d , a n d , th e re fo re ,

e x p o se d

to

fe w e r

m e d ia

(e .g .

te le v isio n s

and

ra d io s) ( 1 2 6 ) .

F u rth e rm o re , th e c o n c e p t o f th e ‘in d iv id u a l’ o r ‘e v e ry m a n fo r h im se lf’ m e th o d o lo g y p ro m o te d b y th e G o J in th e se situ a tio n s h a s th e p o te n tia l to p ro v e fa ta l to th e e ld e rly ( 1 2 6 ) . T h is n o tio n is su p p o rte d b y o th e r stu d ie s o f th e e ld e rly in d isa ste r, w h e re fin d in g s su g g e st th a t, d u e to re d u c e d d isa ste r p re p a re d n e ss,

th e

e ld e rly

may

w a it

in

th e ir

homes

u n til


45#

EARTHQUAKE WARNING RECEIPT AND MEDIA VS. AGE Respondents 71 = 14 (