The Titanium Age: Markets, Low Cost Processes and

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study analyzes current markets in titanium, pricing and supply issues in a range ... well established in aerospace, trucks and heavy vehicles, medicine, chemical.
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The Titanium Age: Markets, Low Cost Processes and Latent Demand Description:

The Titanium Age: Markets, Low Cost Processes and Latent Demand. This update of Thintri’s earlier titanium study analyzes current markets in titanium, pricing and supply issues in a range of titanium products like scrap, sponge, ingot, plate, etc., and effects of the recent recession and recovery. The report also discusses emerging market opportunities through the maturing of technologies that promise to reduce the cost of titanium extraction, manufacturing, machining and welding. Forecasts are provided for both traditional and potential new titanium markets in a number of key sectors Titanium, a resource with enormous potential in a large number of markets, has been hobbled by high costs and volatile prices, processing difficulties, supply issues and industry-wide inefficiencies. Titanium has the highest strength to density ratio of any metal, is essentially nonmagnetic, and is highly resistant to corrosion, even in hostile environments like salt water. Furthermore, it is highly biocompatible. Titanium has become well established in aerospace, trucks and heavy vehicles, medicine, chemical processing and general industry. In recent years titanium suppliers have worked hard to bring the benefits of titanium to new applications, but just as new markets for titanium have opened up, the supply of titanium tightened considerably, with notable effects on prices. Much of the constricting of supply was attributable to sharply rising aerospace demand as well as greater use in steel production, which reduced the supply of scrap. These factors led to an extraordinary runup in prices, where some more than doubled in a single year, and some users were simply unable to obtain the titanium they needed. The volatility dampened enthusiasm for titanium in new markets where it offers substantial long term cost savings. In response, suppliers of titanium sponge rapidly moved to expand their output. Very soon, however, markets and prices abruptly dropped with the recession. Throughout all this, a number of low cost processing technologies have continued development that promise titanium (commercially pure and alloyed), potentially at greatly reduced cost. These processes, some of which are recently commercialized or will be soon, reduce costs in extraction, machining, welding, manufacture, and other segments. A likely scenario is that within a few years or so, several of these technologies will impact the costs of doing business in titanium. The promise of supply stability and relatively low prices could create an opening whereby new markets can be captured, bringing titanium to a broad range of new applications. Alternatively, suppliers of low cost titanium may merely sell their product for high prices and greater profits. In that sense, low cost production processes could a substantial investment opportunity.. Understand the Markets Thintri’s new market study analyzes the current state of traditional titanium markets, the effects of the current economy, t, f and the crisis in price and supply constraints. The effects of emerging low cost titanium processes and the market forces that will determine the outcome of today’s price/supply fluctuations are investigated in detail. New and sometimes unexpected market opportunities are analyzed and forecasts are provided for both traditional markets, some of them unaffected by low cost processes, and new market opportunities created by low cost titanium. The report is based on more than 100 in-depth interviews with experts from industry, Government and academia, as well as a broad range of published materials. The Titanium Industry, Markets and Forecasts Titanium, raw materials production Demand Drivers Supply Side - Capacity

Current and Historical Prices, Forecasts Market segments - Aerospace - - Engines - - Airframe - - New aircraft - Industrial - - Chemical processing - - Power generation - - Desalinization - - Automotive - Cars - Trucks and heavy vehicles - Medical - - Implants - - Surgical instruments - Military - - Aerospace - - Marine - - Land-based - Consumer Emerging Markets and Latent Demand - Effect of new processes - - Extraction (Armstrong, MER, etc.) - - Fabrication - - Manufacture - - Welding - - Machining - Aerospace markets - Automotive markets - Industrial markets - Medical - Consumer

Contents:

Executive Summary E1 Introduction E2 Background: Titanium E3 The Titanium Industry Today E4 Supply and Capacity Issues E5 Price Trends E6 Demand Outlook E7 Lead Times E9 Commercialization of Low Cost Titanium Processes E10 Effect of a New Low-Cost Player E11 Latent Demand Part 1: Titanium Background 1.1 Overview 1.2 Titanium in Industry 1.3 History 1.4 Titanium Production 1.5 Issues with Titanium Part 2: Industry Landscape 2.1 The Demand Side

2.1.1 The Aerospace Sector 2.1.1.1 Titanium Deployment in Aircraft 2.1.1.2 The Evolving Aerospace Market 2.1.1.3 Regulations and Certification 2.1.2.1 Industrial Markets 2.1.2.1.1 Chemical Processing 2.1.2.1.2 Other Industry and Manufacture 2.1.5.1 Passenger Cars 2.1.5.2 Trucks and Heavy Vehicles 2.2 The Supply Side: Capacity 2.2.2.1 Sponge 2.2.2.2 Scrap 2.2.2.2.1 Alloying 2.3 Demand Drivers, Effects on Prices 2.4 Industry Contracts, Agreements and Price Negotiations Part 3: Cost Issues, Lead Times and Today’s Market Outlook 3.1 Effects of Price Volatility and Industry Structure 3.2 Price Behavior and Forecasts 3.2.1 Sponge 3.2.2 Scrap 3.2.3 Melt Products 3.2.3.1 Slab 3.2.3.2 Ingot 3.2.3.3 Electrodes 3.2.3.4 Plate 3.2.3.4.1 Plate Prices 3.2.3.4.2 Toll Rolling 3.3 Today’s Market Outlook 3.3.1 Effects of the Recession 3.3.2 Recovery of the Titanium Industry 3.4 Lead Times Part 4: Commercialization of Low-Cost Titanium 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Raw Material Issues 4.3 Composition and Alloying 4.4 Quality, Purity, Performance 4.5 The Powder Advantage 4.5.1 MIM 4.6 Manufacture & Fabrication 4.7 Machining 4.8 Welding 4.9 Titanium Process Commercialization 4.10 Effect of a New, Low-Cost Player Part 5: Latent Demand and Market Opportunities 5.1 Automotive Markets 5.1.1 Trucks and Commercial Vehicles 5.1.1.1 Turbocharger Compressor Wheels 5.1.1.2 Valve Train 5.1.1.3 Connecting Rods 5.1.1.4 Exhaust Systems 5.1.1.5 Suspensions 5.1.2 Opportunities in Mass Market Autos 5.1.2.1 Valve Train, Valves, Valve Springs 5.1.2.2 Connecting Rods 5.1.2.3 Exhaust Systems 5.1.2.4 Suspensions 5.1.3 Motorcycles and Other Small Vehicles 5.1.4 Regulation and Fuel Economy 5.1.5 Economics 5.1.6 Latent Automotive Demand

5.2 General Industry, Oil & gas, Mining, etc 5.2.1 Chemical Processing, Pharmaceuticals, etc 5.2.2 Oil & Gas, Mining 5.2.3 Energy and Power Generation 5.2.4 Pulp & Paper 5.2.5 Latent Industrial Demand 5.3 Aerospace 5.4 Defense 5.4.1 Armor 5.4.1.1 Armoring Vehicles 5.4.1.2 Non-Vehicle Armor 5.4.1.3 Fuel Economy 5.4.1.4 Procurement Issues 5.4.2 Naval Applications 5.4.3 Latent Defense Demand 5.5 Medical Markets 5.5.1 Orthopedic Devices: Implants, Trauma Fixtures, etc 5.5.2 Surgical Instruments 5.5.3 Latent Medical Demand 5.6 Consumer Markets 5.6.1 Established Consumer Applications 5.6.1.1 Sporting Goods 5.6.1.2 Jewelry 5.6.1.3 Architecture 5.6.1.4 Marine Markets 5.6.1.5 Price and Supply Issues 5.6.1.6 Latent Consumer Demand Figures Figure ES-1 Sponge Capacity by Country Figure ES-2 Commercial Aircraft Deliveries Figure ES-3 Titanium Use by Aircraft Type Figure ES-4 Sample Plate Price Trends Figure ES-5 Global Metallic Titanium Demand, Conventional Forecast Figure ES-6 Global Titanium Demand by Market, Conventional Forecast Figure ES-7 Global Automotive Latent Demand Figure ES-8 Global Latent Defense Demand, Armor Figure ES-9 Global Industrial Latent Demand Figure 1-1 Shares by Weight, Metallic Titanium versus Titanium in Pigment Figure 2-1 Industrial Titanium Markets Figure 2-2 Sponge Capacity Growth by Country Figure 2-3 Sponge Capacity Trends, US vs. Global Figure 2-4 Scrap Availability Trends Figure 2-5 Melt Product Capacity Trends Figure 2-6 Global Ingot Melting Capacity by Company, 2006 Figure 2-7 Geographic Trends, Mill Products: Demand, 2006, 2015 Figure 2-8 Mill Product Capacity Trends Figure 2-9 Commercial Aircraft Deliveries Figure 2-10 Titanium Use per Craft, by Aircraft Type Figure 3-1 Sponge Price Trends Figure 3-2 Scrap Price Trends, Turnings Figure 3-3 Scrap Price Trends, Bulk Weldable Figure 3-4 Scrap Price Trends, Clips Figure 3-5 Scrap Price Trends, Ferro-Titanium Figure 3-6 Slab Price Trends Figure 3-7 Ingot Price Trends Figure 3-8 Electrode Price Trends Figure 3-9 Forging/VAR Stock Price Trends Figure 3-10 Plate Price Trends, B265 CP Figure 3-11 Plate Price Trends, 4911 Alloy Figure 3-12 Toll Rolling Price Trends, B265 CP and 4911 Alloy Plate Figure 3-13 Global Metallic Titanium Demand, Conventional Forecast

Figure 3-14 Global Titanium Demand by Market, Conventional Forecast Figure 5-1 Overall Latent Demand Figure 5-2 Global Latent Demand, Automotive Markets Figure 5-3 Global Latent Demand, Industrial Markets Figure 5-4 Commercial Aerospace Latent Demand Figure 5-5 Global Latent Demand, Defense, Armor Figure 5-6 Global Latent Demand, Defense, Other Figure 5-7 Global Latent Demand, Medical Implants Figure 5-8 Global Latent Demand, Surgical Instruments Figure 5-9 Global Latent Demand, Consumer Markets Tables Table 2-1 Current Titanium Markets Table 2-2 Commercial Automobile Titanium Components Table 5-1 Existing and Potential Titanium Automotive Applications Table 5-2 Titanium Tiles at the Guggenheim Museum, Bilbao, Spain

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