Jun 8, 2015 - Warehouse take-up is rising dramatically. 0. 5 ... Source: Property Data/Savills (excludes confidential de
The UK Warehousing Market London Supply Chain Forum, 8th June 2015
savills.com
Savills Industrial & Logistics
Market Facts
Kevin Mofid
Market Trends
Director, Research
Market Drivers
[email protected]
Bespoke Projects
+44 (0) 203 618 3612
Savills Coverage
Don’t shoot the messenger!
Big shed supply is falling drastically 100 90
80 Million Sq Ft
70 60 50 40
30 20 10 0 Q4 07 Source: Savills
Q4 08
Q4 09
Q4 10
Q4 11
Q4 12
Q4 13
Q4 14
With quality varying across regions C
B
A
A Spec
6
Sq Ft (millions)
5 4 3 2 1 0 East Midlands North West
South East West Midlands Yorkshire & The Humber
South West
Warehouse take-up is rising dramatically Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1 Average
35
30
Million sq ft
25 20 15
10 5 0 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Demand is pushing average size up 290,000 270,000
Sq ft
250,000 230,000 210,000 190,000 170,000 150,000 2005 Source: Savills
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Logistics Speculative Development on the rise Sq ft announced
number of units
2.5
12
Sq ft (millions)
8 1.5 6 1 4 0.5
2
0
0 Qtr3 2012
Qtr2
Qtr3
Qtr4
Qtr1
2013
Qtr2
Qtr3
2014 9
Qtr4
Qtr1 2015
Number of units
10
2
Average size of speculative unit Average spec unit size Average deal size (existing units)
Average deal size (all deals) Average deal size (BTS only)
500
450 Sq ft (thousands)
400
350 300
250 200
150 100
50 0 East Midlands Source: Savills
South East
North West
West Midlands
Yorkshire
Supply and demand dynamic is pushing rents 4 3 2
-2 -3 -4 -5 -6 IPD Logistics Rental Growth
Source: Savills/RealFor
Logistics Rental Growth Forecast
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
-1
2001
0 2000
Rental growth % yr/yr
1
Real Estate as a source of Finance? £4.5 Q1 Q3
Q2 Q4
£4.0
£3.5
£ billion
£3.0
£2.5
£2.0
£1.5
£1.0
£0.5
£0.0 2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Source: Property Data/Savills (excludes confidential deals)
2014
Conclusions for logisticians Plan the appropriate search times into your plans….. There is very little space!
Factor the appropriate rents into your plans…… rents are increasing! Will there be a desire for logistics owner occupation? Use the lobbying tools at the industries disposal.
The UK Warehousing Market London Supply Chain Forum, 8th June 2015
savills.com
British Property Federation
Industrial Committee June 2015
Who we are • Trade body for real estate owners and investors
• Around 400 members • Work with Government and other stakeholders to influence policy
• Raise profile of sector • Help members access and understand policy • Promote best practice
June 2015
Role of real estate • Economic infrastructure
• Social infrastructure • National asset with value of over £1,000bn • Employs over 1m people • Contributes over £100bn to economy each year
June 2015
Committee background • Established July 2014
• Born out of BPF Commercial Committee • No equivalent body speaking on unique challenges facing sector
• Growth sector: retail habits changing, manufacturing industry is re-invigorated, HS2/3 • Integrating housing with employment
June 2015
Committee role • Enhance credibility and profile of sector
• Provide market-wide lobby to create a consistent approach to engagement on key policy issues • Improve the outlook for the sector as a whole, unlocking further investment opportunities • Provide a forum for networking and exchange of market and political intelligence
June 2015
Committee membership •
A&J Mucklow
•
Roxhill Developments
•
Barton Willmore
•
Turley
•
Deloitte
•
Eversheds
•
Goodman
•
Hogan Lovells International
•
Graftongate
•
Colliers
•
Harworth Estates
•
Delin Capital
•
Kilbride Holdings
•
Industrial Agents Society
•
Legal & General Property
•
Network Rail
•
M&G
•
IDI Gazeley
•
SEGRO
June 2015
Policy issues • Promoting the value of the sector
• Land allocation • Planning • Sustainability issues • Technology and future-proofing • Building design
June 2015
British Property Federation
Industrial Committee June 2015
