The UK's EU Referendum - DeHavilland

Ahead of a British referendum on EU membership, to be held by the end of 2017, DeHavilland's UK and EU teams are pleased to present a series of briefings exploring the key aspects of the process. This first briefing provides the background to the referendum and introduces the key players in the negotiations in both Westminster and Brussels. Bookmark our online timeline of all the key events in the run-up to the referendum.

Introduction

In January 2013 UK Prime Minister David Cameron announced he would be in favour of holding a referendum on membership of the European Union if he remained in post after the 2015 General Election. Since then MPs from his governing Conservative Party have been keen to enshrine the promise in legislation, and on the 27th the Government announced that a Bill would be introduced to guarantee the pledge. In the run up to the 2015 General Election the Conservatives argued that it was the only party that could bring meaningful reform to the EU, and claimed in their manifesto that they “would give the public a say over Britain’s membership of the EU and commit to a referendum by the end of 2017.” The Party’s official position is for the United Kingdom to remain part of a reformed EU. Recently, acting opposition Labour leader Harriet Harman took a nuanced approach of endorsing a referendum while committing to campaign for Britain to remain part of the EU. Scottish National Party (SNP) leader Nicola Sturgeon has proposed a “double majority” vote. This would mean that a British exit from the EU could only occur if all four nations agree. Ms Sturgeon’s SNP is also dedicated to

© DeHavilland Information Services Ltd 2015

campaigning for Britain’s continued membership. The question to be put to the public before the end of 2017, as outlined in the EU Referendum Bill, is:

"Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?"

Although the EU Referendum Bill stipulates that a vote must take place no later than 31 December 2017, no official date has yet been set. According to the Telegraph, officials in Downing Street and the Foreign Office are exploring the possibility of holding the referendum in October 2016.

Mr Cameron has not laid out his plans for reform in detail, but in a number of speeches and newspaper articles he has broadly defined his negotiating hand. His priorities include:    

A general change in the direction of “ever closer union;” Restricting migrants’ access to benefits; Parliamentary powers to block EU legislation; and Freeing businesses from EU red tape, and protection for the City of London from EU legislation.

Much discussion has focused on the possibility of 'treaty change', an EU constitutional process which would require the consent of all Member States, and would likely trigger several other national referenda. While Mr Cameron's wishlist would likely necessitate this, he has accepted that the actual treaty change may come later, and be post-dated.

On the 27th May the Government announced it would: “renegotiate the United Kingdom’s relationship with the European Union and pursue reform of the European Union for the benefit of all Member States. Alongside this, early legislation will be introduced to provide for an in-out referendum on membership of the European Union before the end of 2017.” The Bill sets the scene for a vote guaranteed by the end of 2017. Briefly, the bill is broken down into clauses, the most controversial of which include:

British PM David Cameron

It has been suggested that, in order to negotiate from a position of strength, Mr Cameron will delay detailing his demands for as long as possible. Senior British officials have told the Financial Times that “Cameron will not make it clear what he wants until very close to the referendum… we have to find out what we are likely to get before we make public what we want.” With speculation that a referendum could be held as early as October 2016, Mr Cameron will be under pressure to conclude his negotiations early next year. Some media sources suggest even as early as December 2015. The UK’s position may be weakened in the coming months as the possibility of a Greek exit from the Eurozone and the issue of migration take priority on the EU’s agenda. Some members of the British Government see opportunity in a Greek withdrawal though, with one Cabinet Minister telling the Daily Mail that, following an exit, “the Germans would be that much keener to keep us in.”


  



Clause 1: the referendum (the question) Clause 2: entitlement to vote. Clauses 3 & 4: conduct of the referendum (provisions pertaining to holding it on the same day as other elections) Clauses 7-11: Miscellaneous (the cost of the referendum, campaigning, financing and donations, campaign broadcasts, and public awareness)

Key Players

Since his re-election in May 2015 Mr Cameron has been busy touring European capitals to persuade his counterparts of the merit of his arguments. In the House of Commons, however, it is Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond who has been leading the Bill through parliament. It is worth noting that, prior to his role as Foreign Secretary, Philip Hammond suggested that there were circumstances in which he would vote to leave the EU. As Mr Cameron’s strongest political ally and right-hand-man, Chancellor George Osborne

has been particularly vocal about renegotiating Britain’s position within the EU. Since the UK general election in May, Mr Osborne has raised concerns about the strength of Europe’s financial policymaking. Ivan Rogers and Tom Scholar are responsible for negotiating the technical details of Cameron’s reforms. In September 2013 Ivan Rogers was nominated as Britain’s Permanent Representative to the EU, after previous roles as Cameron’s Europe Adviser and Treasury official. Some eurosceptics have criticised Rogers as being too pro-European after working for Ken Clarke and Leon Brittan. Tom Scholar serves as Cameron’s Europe Adviser after holding the role of Second Permanent Secretary to the Treasury.

In Brussels, the European Commission is key to the UK's campaign, as the 'guardian of the treaties', and the only institution that can propose legislative changes. Cameron has a complicated relationship with Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, having tried to block the appointment of the former Luxembourg PM last year. Juncker is however keen that the UK remain in the bloc. Juncker's right-hand man Frans Timmermans is likely to do more of the leg-work. The former Dutch Foreign Minister speaks flawless English, and is in charge of the EU's 'Better Regulation' agenda – a drive to reduce unnecessary regulation and streamline the legislative process which dovetails nicely with the reforms Cameron is seeking. Meanwhile in June the Commission appointed Jonathan Faull to lead a new 'Task Force for Strategic Issues related to the UK Referendum', reporting directly to Juncker, and working closely with Timmermans. While the British civil servant may have been an obvious choice, it also shows how seriously Juncker is taking the issue. Faull is currently the top official in the Commission's financial


services department, so is certainly familiar with the City of London, and is widely respected in Brussels. His appointment has already been welcomed by Downing Street.

Jonathan Faull, European Commission

But while the Commission may formally be in charge, it is Cameron's fellow national leaders who will ultimately need to be persuaded if the UK is to achieve its goals. Most important of these is undoubtedly Angela Merkel, the Germany Chancellor, but the Dutch and Danish Prime Ministers Mark Rutte and Lars Løkke Rasmussen have both been identified early on as potential allies. Donald Tusk is the man who chairs the European Council summits, and so the former Polish PM has an important role to play, but it is the Council's chief administrator Jeppe Tranholm-Mikkelsen who is expected to do a lot of the work.

Owing to the lack of details on Cameron’s renegotiation proposals it is likely that the YES and NO campaigns will not be fully formed for some time. Labour MP Alan Johnson has been picked to be his party’s spokesperson for staying in the European, and SNP MP Alex Salmond will be the YES representative for the Scottish Nationalists. In the House of Commons, votes over the passage of the EU Referendum Bill offer some

insight into the beginnings of the NO campaign. Already, Conservative MP Sir Bill Cash put forward an amendment that would have ensured the Government remained neutral in the weeks leading up to the vote, preventing it from advocating continued membership of the EU. It was defeated 288 to 97, with 25 Conservatives voting yes.

committee for the EU referendum” – to promote cooperation amongst those who might contribute to the OUT campaign.” They include, UKIP MP Douglas Carswell, Conservative MPs Owen Paterson, Steve Barker and Bernard Jenkin, and Labour MPs Kate Hoey, Kelvin Hopkins and Graham Stringer.

Among the Conservatives voting yes were former Defence Secretary Liam Fox, possible London Mayoral candidate Zac Goldsmith, Nadine Dorries, Philip Hollobone, and John Redwood.

In June UKIP leader Nigel Farage claimed he was prepared to lead the NO campaign, but there is some concern among eurosceptics that he is too divisive a figure to lead a national campaign.

Furthermore, a loose crossbench coalition of MPs has formed – dubbed the “exploratory

Timeline For details of all key dates in the run-up to the referendum, see DeHavilland's timeline, which will be continuously updated as the situation evolves. Bookmark this link to stay on top of events.

Click here


To find out how DeHavilland's political monitoring and research services can help your organisation and to request a free trial, contact:

20 Air Street, London, W1B 5AN, UK T +44 (0)20 3033 3870 E [email protected] W www1.dehavilland.co.uk/trial


3rd floor, Square de Meeûs, 35 1000 Brussels, Belgium T +32 2 893 9722 E [email protected] W www1.dehavillandeurope.eu/trial