The Use of Catastrophe Modelling for. Quantifying and Mapping Risks. Robert
Muir-Wood PhD. Feb 26 th. 2007 ...
Robert Muir-Wood PhD Feb 26th 2007
The Use of Catastrophe Modelling for Quantifying and Mapping Risks
Confidential
Largest developer of risk modeling software and solutions for the global insurance and reinsurance market – with a principal focus on natural and man-made Catastrophe risk 1100 employees in principal offices: US (California & New Jersey), London, Bermuda, Tokyo, Zurich and India (New Delhi and Hyderabad) RMS India employs 700 - is a leading Indian GIS company and the focus of RMS Catastrophe risk modeling for the developing world 400 clients including almost all the major insurers and reinsurers, reinsurance brokers, capital markets, governments, corporations etc. Recent establishment of climate change risk practice
Risk Management Solutions
2
Confidential
Methodology Key loss return periods by peril Use of scenarios to explore disaster preparedness and the potential systemic impacts of ‘Super Catastrophes’ Risk rating and the insurance industry
Catastrophe Loss Modelling Agenda
3
Generate Stoch. Events
Assess Earthquake Motion
Confidential
Apply Exposure
Calculate Damage
4
Quantify Financial Loss
Probabilistic Catastrophe Loss Modelling
Stochastic events : 42,687 Mw 5.0 – 8.75
Stochastic Faults
Background subsource segments
Modelling Experience
Confidential
Uniform background
Major source segments
5
Modelling Experience
Confidential
Local soil amplification Index
(Aggregated at the block level)
National Bureau of Soil Survey & Land Use Planning (1/500,000)
6
Commercial – By coverage
Industrial – By coverage for small scale and
–
–
Block level resolution
–
Confidential
Residential, Commercial, Industrial Buildings
–
Exposure
large industries
Residential – By building class & coverage
–
Vulnerability functions
4
5
6
Burnt Brick
Stone RC
7
Light Metal Mud/ Unburnt Brick
Wood
8
9
7
10
RMSI - Vulnerability and Exposure Module for India
11
12
Model Resolution
Modelling Experience
Confidential
8
(VRG) 5, 10, 50 Km
Variable Resolution Grids
District Boundary
10 to 12 6 to 10 5 to 6 2 to 5 1 to 2 0.5 to 1 0.1 to 0.5 0.01 to 0.1 0.001 to 0.01 all others
Block level Loss cost
Confidential
RMSI India Earthquake Cat Model - Risk to Residential Exposure
9
9 Insurance Claims: Expected to be around 1000 crores
9 Some of the affected Industries : Kandla Port Trust, Hindustan Lever, and IFFCO
Confidential
5000 1080 600
10
11195
Commercial establishment
Industrial establishment
387
Public Infrastructure & Amenities
Public Utilities
3000
Household Properties
Personal Properties
Economic Loss in Gujarat Earthquake (In Crores)
Economic Loss in 2001 Gujarat Earthquake (In Crores)
Confidential
11
Cyclone Risk India – Average Annualised Loss (AAL)
Confidential
Cyclone Risk India – EP losses Andhra Pradesh
12
1000 yr RP
100 yr RP 1%
50 yr RP 2%
3%
4%
Annual Exceedance Probability
Confidential
$ LOSS
Tropical Cyclone Earthquake Flood
Comparative Catastrophe Risk
13
Confidential
Tropical Cyclone Flood Windstorm Flood Flood Windstorm Windstorm Windstorm Flood Earthquake
Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech R Denmark Finland France Germany Greece
50yr Loss
Country Earthquake Earthquake Earthquake Earthquake Flood Windstorm Windstorm Earthquake Earthquake Volcano
1000yr Loss
OECD Countries & Peak Historical Cat Hazard (Property)
14
Hungary Iceland * Ireland Italy * Japan * Korea Luxembourg Mexico * Netherlands New Zealand *
Country
Confidential
Flood Earthquake Windstorm Earthquake Earthquake Tropical Cyclone Windstorm Earthquake Windstorm Earthquake
50yr Loss
15
Earthquake? Volcano Windstorm Volcano Volcano Earthquake? Flood Earthquake Flood Volcano
1000yr Loss
OECD Countries & Peak Historical Cat Hazard (Property)
Norway Poland Portugal Slovak R Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States
Country
Confidential
Windstorm Flood Windstorm Flood Flood Windstorm Flood Earthquake Windstorm Tropical Cyclone
50yr Loss
16
Flood Flood Earthquake Flood Earthquake Flood Earthquake Earthquake Flood Earthquake
1000yr Loss
OECD Countries & Peak Historical Cat Hazard (Property)
Iceland Italy Japan Mexico New Zealand Portugal Turkey
Country
Confidential
Earthquake Earthquake Earthquake Earthquake Earthquake Windstorm Earthquake
50yr Loss
17
Volcano Volcano Volcano Earthquake Volcano Earthquake Earthquake
1000yr Loss
OECD Countries: Most Catastrophe Prone (Loss measured as % of National GDP)
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
Log Fatalities
100,000
1
100
1,000
Kobe, 1995
Confidential
Log Return Period
10
x
18
10,000
Expected earthquake fatalities in Japan (2007) - based on analysis of casualties by construction class & damage
Confidential
19
Geographic Comparison of Casualty and Property Losses
Confidential
20
Locations of future High Fatality Earthquakes the Himalayan Front
Confidential
Estimated 12.5% nationwide loss
Scenarios - Portugal 1755
21
12
109,000
Spain 12
Morocco 8 525,000
Heights m
Tsunami
89,000
Portugal
6
6
Population living
