With a Maidenhead constituency, she may be inclined to favour expanding Gatwick. The Davies. Commission's recommendation
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Re: Healing the Conservative Party – a superhuman feat?
Re: The Northern Powerhouse’s swansong? APPROACH Rebrand and reboot
APPROACH Bold, but potentially futile
ALLIES & INFLUENCERS
IMPACT/REACTION Although May had delayed explicitly endorsing Osborne’s ‘Northern Powerhouse’ project, her vision for provincial centres is emerging through her ‘Industrial Strategy’. Many hallmarks of her predecessor’s plans remain. It centres on boosting productivity beyond the south-east by maximising the potential of local industries. She also confirmed her support for HS2, as well as HS3 which would connect the east and west. There are however two distinct differences. Firstly, she recognises a need to revive rural economies and market towns where people feel bypassed by the benefits of globalisation. Secondly, May is sceptical about elected mayors for combined authorities, meaning no single individual will have power over Whitehall’s funding. Nick Timothy, her joint chief of staff, is the driving force behind this agenda. He has been vocal on empowering local communities to take control of their own economic and social success.
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Re: How to successfully negotiate Brexit? APPROACH Cautious and reserved
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Neil O’Brien – Special adviser to the prime minister Sajid Javid – Communities and local government secretary Greg Clark – Business, energy and industrial strategy secretary
IMPACT/REACTION
THERESA MAY WHAT’S IN HER INBOX?
May must unite her parliamentary party in order to make a success of her slim majority. Agreeing the terms of Brexit risks being a source of tension inside the party in the coming years, so her task is to identify areas of consensus for the Conservatives that unsettle Labour. Beyond the Trident vote, an easy win in this respect, other crowd-pleasing policies may include: keeping a freeze on fuel duty, reducing taxes, increased competition and rigour in teaching, and strong deficit reduction measures. Her team of advisers, as well George Freeman, Chair of the No.10 Policy Board, will take soundings from the backbenches to ensure success at party conference. ALLIES & INFLUENCERS Chris Grayling – Leadership campaign manager Graham Brady – Chair of the 1922 committee George Freeman – Chair of no.10 policy board Patrick Mcloughlin – Conservative party chairman
THE INNER CIRCLE Nick Timothy Joint chief of staff Reply Fiona Hill Joint chief of staff
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Re: To be or not to be on Hinkley Point?
IMPACT/REACTION May is in no rush to trigger Article 50, with a (late) 2017 date looking likely. Whilst Jean Claude Junker presses for a speedy start to formal negotiations, May will want to ensure she has time to sell her brand of Brexit to colleagues and build bilateral relationships with Member States. This could help increase the likelihood of a favourable negotiation and neutralise the Commission’s plans for a more punitive exit. May will also need to begin looking further afield to deepen trading relations with the US, India, China, Australia and Canada if she is to make Brexit a success.
John Godfrey Director of policy
Lord O’Neill – Commercial secretary to the Treasury Liu Xiaoming – Chinese ambassador Baroness Neville-Rolfe – Minister for energy and intellectual property
Kate Perrior Media spokesperson
ALLIES & INFLUENCERS Michel Barnier – Brussel’s chief Brexit negotiator David Davis – Brexit secretary Liam Fox – International trade secretary Sir Julian King – EU Commissioner
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ALLIES & INFLUENCERS
APPROACH All-ears to her inner circle IMPACT/REACTION There are complex dynamics underpinning May’s decision to delay a decision on Hinkley Point. Sino-British diplomatic relations, the high strike price of £92.50/MWh agreed by Cameron and Osborne, and the UK’s long-term energy security are all considerations that will influence her eventual decision. Nick Timothy, her joint chief of staff, has expressed reservations about Chinese involvement in UK infrastructure, arguing it was buying “British silence on human rights abuses” and that “rational concerns about national security” were being “swept to one side”.
Will Tanner Deputy Head, Prime Minister's Policy Unit Reply
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Re: Heathrow or Gatwick?
Philip Hammond – Chancellor of the Exchequer David Gauke – Chief secretary to the Treasury Mark Carney – Governor of the Bank of England Poppy Trowbridge – Special adviser to Philip Hammond
APPROACH Further consideration required IMPACT/REACTION Theresa May has tasked herself with ending the long running debate about UK airport capacity by chairing the Cabinet committee on the issue. With a Maidenhead constituency, she may be inclined to favour expanding Gatwick. The Davies Commission’s recommendation for a hub airport at Heathrow, and questions about the UK’s international trading links post-Brexit, could make her re-evaluate. This could also present an opportunity to show she is putting the needs of the UK ahead of her own constituency interests. With anti-Heathrow campaigners such as Boris Johnson and Justine Greening in her Cabinet, she’ll also have to weigh-up what impact the decision will have on party unity.
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Re: A change of tack on the economy? APPROACH Maintain confidence, secure investment IMPACT/REACTION
ALLIES & INFLUENCERS Sir Howard Davies – Airports commission chair Sadiq Khan – Mayor of London Justine Greening – Education secretary Boris Johnson – Foreign secretary
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Although neither May nor new Chancellor Philip Hammond have ruled out a continuation of austerity, May has indicated that further cheap borrowing may provide the fiscal stability the UK requires following the EU referendum result. Taxation reforms could be used to restore confidence in the UK as a location for business investment and boost productivity. It is unlikely any significant economic plans will be set out ahead of the Autumn Statement, when Hammond is expected to outline plans for a “fiscal reset”. The backdrop is Hammond and May have already abandoned Osborne’s surplus target by 2020 which had in any case been called into question prior to the referendum. By keeping their options open, Hammond and May will be looking for flexibility as Britain faces headwinds in the global economy and from Brexit.
