He was always encouraging me to increase my knowledge and was a driving force in my decision to pursue a graduate degree. I love you, Dady.
ANALYSIS OF ARRIVAL TYPE ESTIMATION PROCEDURE
A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty Of Purdue University by William C. Eidson
In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Civil Engineering
May 2001
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This thesis is dedicated to my late father, Kenneth George Eidson. His love of music and passion for education has shaped me more than he could have ever known. He was always encouraging me to increase my knowledge and was a driving force in my decision to pursue a graduate degree. I love you, Dady.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I would like to thank all the people who have helped and encouraged me to reach this stage in my life. Thank you to my Master’s Examining Committee members, Dr. Andrzej Tarko and Dr. Robert Proctor. Thank you to Dr. Darcy Bullock, for advising and encouraging me for the last two years. Thank you to my mother, whose love and support has kept me strong throughout many difficult times. Finally, thank you to my best friend, Kelly. Your love and determination has helped me accomplish this monumental task. I love you all. Thank you.
Special thanks are also in order to all of the individuals who participated in this study. Thanks to the employees of the Indiana Department of Transportation, the students in John Lewis’ Physics class at Glenbrook South High School, my colleagues and friends at Purdue University, the students enrolled in several classes at Purdue University, and students enrolled in Dr. Messer’s Traffic Engineering class at Texas A&M University.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................... vi LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................... viii ABSTRACT .....................................................................................................................x CHAPTER 1 – INTRODUCTION .....................................................................................1 Thesis Motivation .................................................................................................1 Thesis Overview ..................................................................................................2 CHAPTER 2 – DELAY ESTIMATION PROCEDURES ....................................................3 Highway Capacity Manual....................................................................................3 Signalized Intersection Delay ...............................................................................4 Traffic Impact Studies ..........................................................................................7 Factors Influencing Delay Calculation ..................................................................9 CHAPTER 3 – ARRIVAL TYPE ESTIMATION PROCEDURES.....................................13 Arrival Type Overview........................................................................................13 Purpose of Arrival Type Study............................................................................20 CHAPTER 4 – TRAFFIC OBSERVATION AND VIDEO PROCEDURES.......................23 Estimating Arrival Type with Videos ...................................................................23 Video Production Procedure ..............................................................................24 Intersection Selection.........................................................................................34 Description of Selected Intersections .................................................................34 CHAPTER 5 – DATA COLLECTION PROCEDURE......................................................46 Participating Groups ..........................................................................................46 Video Observation .............................................................................................47 CHAPTER 6 – DATA ANALYSIS AND COMPARISON .................................................62 Platoon Ratio as Study Benchmark....................................................................62 Overview of Analysis..........................................................................................64
v Page Results of Individual Approaches .......................................................................65 Comparison of Mean Response Pairs................................................................72 Unique Arrival Types for Lane Groups ...............................................................75 Effects Of Traffic Volume On Arrival Type Estimation ........................................77 Overall Study Analysis .......................................................................................80 CHAPTER 7 – CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH ........................................87 General Conclusions..........................................................................................87 Potential Improvements to Arrival Type Method.................................................88 Alternative Methods ...........................................................................................90 Future Research ................................................................................................92 LIST OF REFERENCES................................................................................................94 APPENDICES Appendix A ........................................................................................................98 Appendix B ......................................................................................................101
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure
Page
2-1 Highway Capacity Manual Average Control Delay.....................................................5 2-2 Delay terms at a signalized intersection ....................................................................6 2-3 Progression Factor calculation ................................................................................11 2-4 Highway Capacity Manual Platoon Ratio.................................................................12 3-1 Sample ring structure ..............................................................................................16 3-2 Input Module Worksheet, HCM 1997.......................................................................18 3-3 Input Module Worksheet, HCM 2000.......................................................................20 4-1 Video production procedure.....................................................................................26 4-2 Video capture ..........................................................................................................28 4-3 Sample clip animation .............................................................................................31 4-4 Video clip production ...............................................................................................32 4-5 Map of North-central Indiana ...................................................................................34 4-6 Map of Lafayette, IN region with locations indicated ................................................35 4-7 Approach A graphics ...............................................................................................38 4-8 Approach B graphics ...............................................................................................39 4-9 Approach C graphics...............................................................................................40 4-10 Approach D graphics .............................................................................................41 4-11 Approach E graphics .............................................................................................42 4-12 Approach F graphics .............................................................................................43 4-13 Approach G graphics.............................................................................................44 4-14 Approach H, I, and J graphics ...............................................................................45 5-1 Sample of Input Module Worksheet.........................................................................49 5-2 Data collection tool – printed format ........................................................................51 5-3 Data collection tool – email format...........................................................................52 5-4 Data collection tool – World Wide Web format – Phase Two ...................................53
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5-5 Data collection tool – World Wide Web format – Phase Three.................................55 5-6 Map showing typical flow rates on Lafayette and central Indiana arterials ...............60 6-1 Highway Capacity Manual Platoon Ratio.................................................................62 6-2 Phase One and Two response comparison .............................................................67 6-3 Histogram of aggregate Phase One responses .......................................................69 6-4 Histogram of CE 392 class responses.....................................................................70 6-5 Two sample t-test for comparison between responses ............................................73 6-6 Phase two and three response comparison.............................................................78 6-7 Histogram of Traffic Class responses ......................................................................79 6-8 Overall study response comparison – participant groups.........................................81 6-9 Histogram of overall study responses – aggregated ................................................82 6-10 Overall study response comparison – aggregated.................................................83 6-11 Single sample t-test for comparison of mean to known value ................................84 7-1 Corsim figures showing example of simulation ........................................................91 APPENDIX FIGURES B - 1 Phase one response comparison ........................................................................106 B - 2 Histogram of Transportation Engineering Professionals responses.....................107 B - 3 Histogram of High School Student responses .....................................................107 B - 4 Histogram of University Students responses.......................................................108
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LIST OF TABLES
Table
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2-1 Level-of-Service criteria for signalized intersections ..................................................7 2-2 Overview of Traffic Impact Studies ............................................................................9 2-3 Highway Capacity Manual Arrival Type vs. Platoon Ratio........................................12 3-1 Highway Capacity Manual arrival type definitions ....................................................14 3-2 Impact of arrival type on delay estimation................................................................15 4-1 List of Selected Intersections...................................................................................36 4-2 Video Clip Data .......................................................................................................37 5-1 Arrival type definitions – from study Input Module Worksheet..................................50 5-2 Participating groups.................................................................................................56 5-3 Data from Video clip ................................................................................................57 5-4 Overall Response Data ...........................................................................................58 5-5 Hourly traffic volumes on observed approaches ......................................................60 6-1 Highway Capacity Manual Arrival Type vs. Platoon Ratio........................................63 6-2 Level-of-Service Criteria for Signalized Intersections...............................................64 6-3 Platoon Ratio and delay estimation results by approach..........................................64 6-4 Average arrival type estimations for all groups ........................................................66 6-5 Results of comparisons of mean responses between groups ..................................74 6-6 Single sample t-test for Phase Three.......................................................................80 6-7 Significant difference between estimated mean and calculated arrival type.............85 APPENDIX TABLES A - 1 Original list of candidate intersections ...................................................................98 A - 2 Video data – traffic characteristics.........................................................................99 A - 3 Video data – signal parameters and number of vehicles .......................................99 A - 4 Video data by movement – signal parameters and number of vehicles .................99 B - 1 Response data from Transportation Engineering Professionals group ................101
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B - 2 Response data from High School Students group...............................................101 B - 3 Response data from University Students Group..................................................102 B - 4 Response data from CE 392 group .....................................................................103 B - 5 Response data from Traffic Class group .............................................................105 B - 6 Statistical data for participant groups ..................................................................109 B - 7 Statistcal analysis – two sample t-test, overall study ...........................................110 B - 8 Statistical analysis – two sample t-test, Phase Three ..........................................110 B - 9 Statistical analysis – one sample t-test, overall study ..........................................111
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ABSTRACT
Eidson, William, C. M.S.C.E., Purdue University, May 2001. Analysis of Arrival Type Estimation Procedure. Major Professor: Darcy Bullock, P.E.
This thesis explores the estimation of arrival type, an important part of the Highway Capacity Manual 2000 (HCM 2000) procedure for estimating delay and level of service at signalized intersections. Arrival type is a proxy variable, which represents the quality of progression of traffic arriving at an intersection. The research examines whether arrival type can be reliably estimated using the procedures outlined in Chapter 16 of the HCM 2000. The objective is to review the impact arrival type has on delay estimation and to quantitatively evaluate the variance and statistical similarity of arrival types estimated under controlled conditions. Progression quality issues are discussed and potential additions and clarifications are explored. To understand the impact that arrival type estimations have on delay results, an experiment was conducted using the HCM 2000 arrival type estimation procedure. In the experiment, participants were shown video clips of traffic at different intersection approaches and asked to estimate the arrival type. The results are categorized by response groups and approaches, and are compared to the calculated results from the HCM 2000 analytical procedure. The results show generally consistent responses when compared within groups and between groups, but significantly different results when compared to the calculated arrival types. Based on the response trends, several additions to the HCM method are proposed. Recommendations are to include the impact of green split percentages, instructions
xi specifying the need for unique arrival type estimations for each lane group, and generally clarifying the instructions for estimating arrival types. The study results suggest that these changes and clarifications should be considered for incorporation in the HCM 2000 delay estimation and level of service procedure for signalized intersections.
