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2011 International Nuclear Atlantic Conference - INAC 2011 Belo Horizonte,MG, Brazil, October 24-28, 2011 ASSOCIAÇÃO BRASILEIRA DE ENERGIA NUCLEAR - ABEN ISBN: 978-85-99141-04-5

HUMAN RACE ACTIONS VERSUS THE BREAKING OF THE CO2 EQUILIBRIUM LIMIT Márcio Soares Dias1, João Roberto Loureiro de Mattos2 *Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN / CNEN) Av. Presidente Antônio Carlos, 6.627 31270-901 Belo Horizonte, MG 1)

[email protected]; 2)[email protected]

ABSTRACT As matter of divergence and convergence among environmental experts, Earth's climate is dynamic and everchanging. Researches on the climate variations in the geologic and human time scales still left open the actual contribution of the man-made pollution to the current cycle of the climate changes. Anyway the climate changes are there, promoting losses and damages from the new and growing extreme climatic conditions. The human activities are going fast to break the CO2 equilibrium limit, which has been established by the Earth's evolution through the complex connections among terrestrial life, marine life, soil erosion, and volcanic activity. Meanwhile important issues regarding to the Earth's climate future like the nuclear energy use are subject to increasing scrutiny and criticisms with minor considerations of the scientific facts, and also human actions to establish a legally binding international agreement to tackling the issue of global warming and greenhouse gas emissions basically remains as unattainable goal since 1997. This paper presents an overview on the Earth's climate system and its current equilibrium as well as human race actions against both.

1. INTRODUCTION In the analysis Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim? [1], J. Hansen and coworkers summarized the humanity’s challenges as: “Humanity today, collectively, must face the uncomfortable fact that industrial civilization itself has become the principal driver of global climate. If we stay our present course, using fossil fuels to feed a growing appetite for energy intensive life styles, we will soon leave the climate of the Holocene, the world of prior human history. The eventual response to doubling pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 likely would be a nearly ice-free planet, preceded by a period of chaotic change with continually changing shorelines.” In accord to W. Steffen [2] in The Critical Decade - Climate Change science, risks and responses “the evidence that the Earth’s surface is warming rapidly is now exceptionally strong, and beyond doubt. Evidence for changes in other aspects of the climate system is also strengthening. The primary cause of the observed warming and associated changes since the mid-20th century - human emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) - is also known with a high level of confidence”. In the opposite side, critics of the excessive alarm about the global warming argue that “the geologic history clearly shows that Earth's climate is dynamic and ever-changing [3]. While CO2 as a constituent of Earth's atmosphere has been increasing since the industrial revolution, it has been similarly increasing since the Earth started warming 18,000 years ago. Clearly, there are natural forces at work. Global cycles of warming and cooling are actually controlled by natural cyclic phenomenas. All sides agree the subject of climate change is a complex one. The understanding of the Earth's climate future is obtained by means of the

understanding of Earth's climate past. “The idea that man-made pollution is responsible for global warming is not supported by historical fact”[3]. According to W. Steffen, however, some of the most important researches in recent years have reduced the uncertainties surrounding estimates of Earth's climate sensitivity. “What we can say with certainty is that rainfall patterns will change as a result of climate change, and often in unpredictable ways, creating large risks for water availability". There are yet risks associated with the loss of ice cap and extreme variations of the storms, rainfalls and surface air temperatures as it has been emphasized by some recent articles in the National Geographic Magazine: WATER our thirsty world (v.217, n.4, April 2010), Australia’s dry run (v.215, n.4, April 2009), GREENLAND ground zero for global warming (v.217, n.6, June 2010). Anyway, along of cycles of the warming and cooling, the planet reached the equilibrium concentration of CO2 around of 280 ppm. This equilibrium has been established through the complex connections among terrestrial life, marine life, soil erosion, and volcanic activity. After the Fukushima accident some countries are considering to resume electricity generation projects which are based on burning of carbon and as consequence CO 2 generation. Opportunists are clamoring for the end of the nuclear power generation. Developed countries with high per capita electricity consumption are outlining strategic and conservation plans to be implemented in the developing countries. While scientists are currently searching for proofs that emissions from the burning of fossil fuels definitively are responsible by the planet's warming, important issues regarding to the Earth's climate future like the nuclear energy use are subject to increasing scrutiny and criticisms with minor considerations of the scientific facts. This paper presents an overview of the Earth's climate system and its current equilibrium as well as human race actions against both. 2. CLIMATE CHANGE 2.1. A Matter of Divergence and Convergence Hansen et al. in the Global surface temperature change [4] summarized the discussion about the climate changes and temperature anomalies in following words. “Human-made climate change has become an issue of surpassing importance to humanity, and global warming is the first-order manifestation of increasing greenhouse gases that are predicted to drive climate change. Thus, it is understandable that analyses of ongoing global temperature change are now subject to increasing scrutiny and criticisms that are different than would occur for a purely scientific problem. The communication of the status of global warming to the public has always been hampered by weather variability. Layperson's perception tends to be strongly influenced by the latest local fluctuation. This difficulty can be alleviated by stressing the need to focus on the frequency and magnitude of warm and cold anomalies, which change noticeably on decadal time scales as global warming increases. Other obstacles to public communication include the media’s difficulty in framing long-term problems as “news” a preference for sensationalism, a generally low level of familiarity with basic science, and a preference for “balance” in every story. The difficulties are compounded by the politicization of reporting of global warming, a perhaps inevitable consequence of economic and social implications of efforts required to alter the course of human-made climate change”. According to the analysis by W. Steffen [2] are high the risks of the climatic changes to run away of the human’s control in view of the facts: a) sea surface temperatures warmed nearly everywhere over the past century; b) there are over 1,700 billion tons of carbon stored in INAC 2011, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil.

permafrost, which is about twice the amount stored in the atmosphere today; c) projections of sea level rise for the rest of the century vary widely, from the oft quoted range of 0.19-0.59 m based on the IPCC AR4 (2007) to nearly 2 m from a recent evaluation; d) rate of change in sea acidity is exceptionally rapid, likely unprecedented in the 25 million years of the record, and, out of doubt, it places severe evolutionary pressures on marine organisms; and finally e) the humanity can emit not more than 1 trillion tons of CO2 between 2000 and 2050 to have a 75% chance of limiting temperature rise to 2°C (guardrail value) or less. By taking into account not only the role of GHG in the global warming, many researchers still consider as causes of global temperature anomalies [3]: a) astronomical causes (11 year and 206 year cycles of the solar variability [5, 6]); 21,000 year cycle as a result of Earth's combined tilt and elliptical orbit around the Sun - precession of the equinoxes; 41,000 year cycle of the +/- 1.5° wobble in Earth's orbit; 100,000 year cycles of variations in the shape of Earth's elliptical orbit - cycle of eccentricity [7]); b) atmospheric causes (heat retention or greenhouse effect due to atmospheric gases, mostly gaseous water vapor, also carbon dioxide, methane, and a few other miscellaneous gases; solar reflectivity due to white clouds, volcanic dust, polar ice caps); c) tectonic causes (landmass distribution or continental drift causing changes in circulatory patterns of ocean currents and likely promoting the ice ages; undersea activity associated with continental drift that results in displacements of the oceans). Cycles of warming and cooling are results from a complex interplay between a variety of causes. Because these cycles and events overlap, sometimes compounding one another, sometimes canceling one another out, it is inaccurate to infer a statistically significant trend in climate or temperature patterns from just a few years or a few decades of data [3]. After a paper by P.F. Hoffman and D.P. Schrag [8] many evidences support a theory that the entire Earth was ice-covered for long periods 600-700 Ma (million years ago). Each glacial period lasted for millions of years and ended violently under extreme greenhouse conditions. These climate shocks triggered the evolution of multicellular animal life, and challenged assumptions regarding the limits of global change. In fact, wrote M. Marshal [9] in The history of ice on Earth, the planet seems to have three main settings: "greenhouse", when tropical temperatures extend to the poles and there are no ice sheets at all; "icehouse", when there is some permanent ice, although its extent varies greatly; and "snowball", in which the planet's entire surface is frozen over. Why the ice periodically advances and why it retreats again are mysteries that glaciologists have only just started to unravel. 2.2. In the Geologic and Human Time Scales Major units of geological time and definitive events of Earth’s history are given by means of the clock representation in the Fig. 1 [10]. The Hadean eon represents the time before fossil record of life on Earth; its upper boundary is now regarded as 4.0 Ga (Giga years ago). Other subdivisions reflect the evolution of life; the Archean and Proterozoic are both eons, the Palaeozoic, Mesozoic and Cenozoic are eras of the Phanerozoic eon. The two million year Quaternary period, the time of recognizable humans, is too small to be visible at this scale.

INAC 2011, Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil.

Fig. 1. Clock representation of the Earth’s geologic time scale and regarded life events [10]. The similarities among the living organisms suggest a common ancestor from which the known species are diverged through the process of evolution [11]. Bacteria and archaea are microbial organisms that were the dominant forms of life in the early Archean, and many of the major steps in early evolution are recognized to have been occurred with and through them [12]. The evolution of oxygenic photosynthesis started ca. 3.5 Ga and resulted in the oxygenation of the atmosphere (beginning ca. 2,400 Ma) [13]. The earliest evidence of eukaryotes (complex cells with organelles), dates from 1,850 Ma [14, 15], and while they may have been present earlier, their diversification accelerated by means of the metabolic use of oxygen. Later, around 1,700 Ma, multicellular organisms began to appear, with differentiated cells performing specialized functions [16]. The earliest land plants date back to around 450 million years ago [17], though evidences suggest the formation of algal scum on the land as early as 1,200 Ma. Land plants were so successful that they likely contributed to the late Devonian extinction event [18]. Invertebrate animals appear in the period of 650543 Ma [19], while vertebrates originated about 525 Ma during the Cambrian explosion [20]. Oxygen is toxic to organisms that are not adapted to it, but greatly increases the metabolic efficiency of oxygen-adapted organisms [21, 22]. Oxygen became a significant component of Earth's atmosphere about 2,400 Ma [23]. Although eukaryotes may have been present much earlier [24, 25], the oxygenation of the atmosphere was a prerequisite for the evolution of the most complex eukaryotic cells, from which all multicellular organisms are built. The build up of oxygen in the Earth’s atmosphere is summarized in the Fig. 2 [26].


Fig. 2. Oxygen build-up in the Earth's atmosphere. Red and blue lines represent the range of the estimates while time is measured in billions of years ago (Ga) [26]. The Stages in this figure depict: Stage 1 (3.85–2.45 Ga): No O2 produced. Stage 2 (2.45–1.85 Ga): O2 produced, but absorbed in oceans and seabed rock. Stage 3 (1.85–0.85 Ga): O2 starts to gas out of the oceans, but is absorbed by land surfaces and formation of ozone layer. Stages 4 and 5 (0.85–0.54 Ga) and (0.54 Ga–present): O2 sinks are filled and the gas accumulates. The rising oxygen levels may have wiped out a huge portion of the Earth's anaerobic inhabitants at the time. Cyanobacteria, by producing oxygen, were essentially responsible for what was likely the largest extinction event in Earth's history. Additionally the free oxygen combined with atmospheric methane, triggering the Huronian glaciation, possibly the longest Snowball Earth episode. Since then, the amount of oxygen in the atmosphere has fluctuated ever [27]. After paper of P.F. Hoffman and D.P. Schrag [8] many evidences support a theory that the entire Earth was ice-covered for long periods in the time scale of 600-700 Ma, and in accord to R.E. Koop [29] Snowball Earth resulted from a climate disaster triggered by the evolution of oxygenic photosynthesis. Each glacial period lasted for millions of years and ended violently under extreme greenhouse conditions. These climate shocks also triggered the evolution of multicellular animal life, and challenged assumptions regarding the limits of global change [8]. The Fig. 3 shows an representation of the Snowball Earth at this period. According to P.F. Hoffman and D.P. Schrag [8] Snowball Earth ended as a result of some 10 million years of normal volcanic activity, which led the concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increase 1,000-fold. The ongoing greenhouse warming effect pushes temperatures to the melting point at the equator. As the planet heats up, moisture from sea ice sublimating near the equator refreezes at higher elevations and feeds the growth of land glaciers. The open water that eventually forms in the tropics absorbs more solar energy and initiates a faster rise in global temperatures. In a matter of centuries, a brutally hot, wet world will supplant the deep freeze. As tropical oceans thaw, seawater evaporates and works along with carbon dioxide to produce even more intense greenhouse conditions. Surface temperatures soar to more than 50oC, driving an intense cycle of evaporation and rainfall.


Torrents of carbonic acid rain erode the rock debris left in the wake of the retreating glaciers. Swollen rivers wash bicarbonate and other ions into the oceans, where they form carbonate sediment. New life-forms – engendered by prolonged genetic isolation and selective pressure - populate the world as global climate returns to more appropriated conditions.

Fig. 3. Snowball Earth: with the high albedo of ~1, snow and ice reflects the sunlight, cool the atmosphere and thus stabilize their own existence [8]. Figure 4 [3] summarize the evolution of the temperature anomalies after C.R. Scotese [28] and the evolution of CO2 concentrations after RA. Berner and Z. Khotavala [30] in the time scale after the last Snowball Earth. Average global temperatures in the Early Carboniferous Period were hot - approximately 20°C. However, cooling during the Middle Carboniferous reduced average global temperatures to about 12°C. As shown in the Fig. 4, this is comparable to the average global temperature on Earth today. Similarly, atmospheric concentrations of CO2 in the Early Carboniferous Period were approximately 1,500 ppm, but by the Middle Carboniferous had declined to about 350 ppm - comparable to average CO2 concentrations today. Currently, Earth's atmosphere contains about 380 ppm CO2 (0.038%). Compared to former geologic times, our present atmosphere, like the Late Carboniferous atmosphere, is CO2-impoverished. In the last 600 million years of Earth's history only the Carboniferous Period and our present age, the Quaternary Period, have witnessed CO2 levels less than 400 ppm. The peak in the O2-concentration in the Stage 5 of the Fig. 2 is related with the low CO2-concentration at 300 Ma.


Fig. 4. Late Carboniferous to Early Permian time (315 Ma -- 270 Ma): unique time period when the CO2 concentration and air temperature were as low as they are today [3]. A detailed view on the evolutions of the temperature and CO2 concentrations are depicted by the sequence of Figs. 5 - 8. In the Fig. 5 are depicted the cycles of temperature and CO 2 in the last 750,000 years period. [3]. The interglacial periods (high temperatures) happen at time intervals of 100,000 years and lasts about 15,000 to 20,000 years before returning to an icehouse climate. These cycles have been occurring for the last 2 to 4 million years, and the Earth has been cooling gradually for the last 30 million years as depicted in the Fig. 4. The present interglacial cycle of the Earth already lasts about 18,000 years.

Fig. 5. Records of temperature and CO2 in the last 750,000 years period [3].


In the Fig. 6 are depicted the regional variations in the surface air temperature in the last 1,000 years, as estimated from a variety of sources, including temperature-sensitive tree growth indices and written records of various kinds, largely from western Europe and eastern North America [31]. Earth's climate was in a cool period from 1400 A.D. to about 1860 A.D., named the "Little Ice Age". This period was characterized by harsh winters, shorter seasons of the tree growth, and a drought climate. The decline in global temperatures was a modest 0.5°C, but the effects of this global cooling cycle were more pronounced in the higher latitudes. The Little Ice Age has been blamed for a host of human suffering including crop failures like the "Irish Potato Famine" and the demise of the medieval Viking colonies in Greenland. The today global temperatures are warmed back to levels of the "Medieval Warm Period," which existed from approximately 1000 A.D. to 1350 A.D. [3].

Fig. 6. Surface air temperature in the last 1000 years (baseline value for the year of 1900) [31]. In the Fig. 7 are depicted the variation of temperatures and CO 2 concentration in the last 100 years with the baseline in 2000 A.D. The temperatures have increased by about 0.5°C over the period when based on data from satellite, ice and air [3]. Most of these increases occurred in the first 50 years of this time period. On the other hand CO2 has also increased over the period - from about 300 ppm to 370 ppm. The majority of these additions have occurred in the last 50 years, when temperature increases have been slowest. This fact places the question whether the temperature rises is increasing the natural GHG emissions or, conversely, the increases of the GHG emissions are in fact responsible by the temperature rises? Independent data from orbiting satellites have been continuously measuring global temperatures since the 1970's and indicate that over the last 25 years there has actually been a slight decrease in overall global temperatures. Assuming that at least part of the source of CO 2 additions in the last 50 years is anthropogenic (man-made), the likely scenario is that CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere are an effect of temperature - not the other way around. The perturbation of CO2 equilibrium doesn’t had the proportional effect on temperature that greenhouse activists predict [3]. The temperature anomalies from 1980 up to day are depicted in Fig. 8 [2]. This figure based on data of the air temperatures from NASA-GISS and others agencies present the same trend as in the previous figure but a increase of 0.6°C over the last 40 years. Although the ice core record represents a very nice overall view of temperature and CO 2 trends over many thousands of years, their reliability for resolving details over timescales of decades - or in some cases several centuries - is limited. Nevertheless, these data are used as main evidence to show that the current CO2 levels in excess of 300 ppm are unprecedented in all of human history and are actually cause for concern.


Fig. 7. Records of temperature and CO2 in the last 100 years period [3].

Fig. 8. Records of surface air temperature in the last 100 years period [source: NASA-GISS]. 3. HUMAN RACE ACTIONS Human activities are altering Earth’s atmospheric composition [1]. Concern about global warming due to long-lived human-made greenhouse gases (GHGs) led to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change – UNFCC - at 1992 [32] with the objective of stabilizing GHGs in the atmosphere at a level preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system. As result of the UNFCCC, the Kyoto Protocol was initially adopted on 11 December 1997 in Kyoto, and entered into force on 16 February 2005. As of April 2010, 191 states have signed and ratified the protocol [33]. The objective of the Kyoto climate change conference was to


establish a legally binding international agreement, whereby all the participating nations commit themselves to tackling the issue of global warming and greenhouse gas emissions. The target agreed upon was an average reduction of 5.2% from 1990 levels (Kyoto baseline for CO2 emissions) by the year 2012. The protocol left several issues open to be decided later by the sixth Conference of Parties (COP6). In the COP6 attempted to resolve these issues at its meeting in Hague in late 2000, but was unable to reach an agreement due to disputes between the European Union on the one hand (which favored a tougher agreement) and the United States, Canada, Japan and Australia on the other (which wanted the agreement to be less demanding and more flexible). In December 2009, the fifteenth session of the Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC (COP15) was held in Copenhagen, Denmark. Unfortunately, COP15 also didn’t produce a legally binding agreement to cut emissions [34]. World produced in 2007 16% more CO2 than in 1990 as reported in the Little Green Date Book (World Bank, 2007). According to the projections of the International Energy Outlook 2010 [34], world energy-related CO2 emissions rise from 29.7 billion metric tons in 2007 to 33.8 billion metric tons in 2020 and 42.4 billion metric tons in 2035 - an increase of 43% over the 2007-2035 period. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – IPCC [35] - used several reasons for concern to estimate that global warming of more than 2-3°C may be dangerous. Hansen et al [36] argued for a limit of 1°C global warming (relative to 2000, 1.7°C relative to preindustrial time), aiming to avoid the practically irreversible melting of the ice cap and losses of species. Over the past two or three years, the science of climate change has become a more widely contested issue in the public and political spheres [2]. Climate science is now being debated outside of the normal discussion and debate that occurs within the peer-reviewed scientific literature in the normal course of research. It is being attacked in the media by many with no credentials in the field. The questioning of the IPCC, the “climategate” incident based on hacked emails in the UK, and attempts to intimidate climate scientists have added to the confusion in the public about the veracity of climate science. From 1980 to 2006 total world primary energy demand grew by 62%, and to 2030 it is projected to grow at a slightly lesser rate (45%, average 1.6% per year, from 491 EJ to 712 EJ). Electricity growth is even stronger, and is projected to almost double from 2006 to 2030 (growing at average 2.6% per year from 18,921 TWh to 33,265 TWh). Increased demand is most dramatic in developing countries. Currently some two billion people have no access to electricity, and it is a high priority to address this lack. Nuclear power generation is an established part of the world's electricity mix providing some 16% of the world's electricity (cf. coal 40%, oil 10%, natural gas 15% and hydro & other 19%). It is especially suitable for large-scale, continuous electricity demand which requires reliability (i.e. baseload). There are now some 440 commercial nuclear power reactors operating in 30 countries, with 375,000 MWe of total capacity. They provide about 16% of the world's electricity as continuous, reliable base-load power, and their efficiency is increasing. There are 65 commercial nuclear power reactors under construction [37]. Increased awareness of the dangers and effects of global warming and climate change has led decision makers, media and the public to realize that the use of fossil fuels must be reduced and replaced by low-emission sources of energy, such as nuclear power, the only readily available large-scale alternative to fossil fuels for production of continuous, reliable supply of electricity.


The World Energy Outlook 2008 from the OECD's International Energy Agency (IEA) [38] highlights the increasing importance of nuclear power in meeting energy needs while achieving security of supply and minimizing carbon dioxide emissions. The 2006 edition of this report [39] warned that if policies remain unchanged, world energy demand to 2030 is forecast to increase by 53% accompanied by supply crises, giving a "dirty, insecure and expensive" energy future which is unsustainable. Over 70% of the increased energy demand is from developing countries, led by China and India – China overtaken the USA as top CO2 emitter by 2010. A major topic on many political agendas is security of supply, as countries realize how vulnerable they are to interrupted deliveries of oil and gas. The abundance of naturally occurring uranium makes nuclear power attractive from an energy security standpoint. As unfoldings of the nuclear accident in Fukushima, several countries are resuming energy generation projects based on the burning of carbon and are going out of nuclear projects. These decisions do not consider that the risks of the nuclear energy are established while the risks and uncertainties of the climatic variations are just at the beginning. These decisions are also matter of divergence among the countries like it is shown in the below sequence of news: 1) France Criticizes German Retreat from Nuclear Power in Wake of Fukushima. The German government’s decision to close all its nuclear plants in a decade will lead to greater dependence on fossil fuels, increase carbon emissions and require imported atomic power, French officials said at the May 30, 2011, [40]. 2) German nuclear exit plan won't draw many imitators (analysis). A German plan to shut all nuclear reactors by 2022 is unlikely to inspire many imitators abroad even though safety worries after Japan's Fukushima accident have dimmed nuclear industry hopes of a renaissance, May 30, 2011 [41] 3) France expands nuclear power plans despite Fukushima. In the aftermath of Japan's nuclear crisis at Fukushima, some European nations are rethinking their atomic plans. But France, home to 58 of 143 reactors in the EU, remains nuclear energy's champion, and plans not to retire its power stations but to expand them, May 30, 2011 [42] 4) Finland seen to be unlikely to follow Germany on nuclear energy issue. Opposition to nuclear energy increased in Finland after the nuclear accident in Fukushima, but unlike Germany, which announced a plan to phase out nuclear energy, no widespread change in attitudes has been seen. Finnish opponents of nuclear energy are nevertheless encouraged by Germany’s decision, July 29, 2011 [43]. 5) Why German Nuclear Worries Are Both Wrong and Harmful. An increasing number of Germans are convinced that nuclear energy is more dangerous than the alternatives. Their fears are understandable but wrong. What's worse, their emotional and over-politicized reaction at home is sowing more fear and distrust in Japan, July 04, 2011 [44]. However, the analyses from J. Hansen et al concluded: “If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from its current 385 ppm to at most 350 ppm, but likely less than that. The largest uncertainty in the target arises from possible changes of non-CO2 forcings. An initial 350 ppm CO2 target may be achievable by phasing out coal use except where CO 2 is captured and adopting agricultural and forestry practices that sequester carbon. If the present overshoot of this target CO2 is not brief, there is a possibility of seeding irreversible catastrophic effects [1].


However, the questions that remain unanswered are: a) Whether the current CO2 emissions already represent the breaking of the CO 2 equilibrium limit of the planet? In fact, the evidences show that the rescue is to be applied to the actions of human race and not to the planet, once the planet in several extinction events already proved its capacity to recover the life. b) Why the major emitters are concerned with the outline strategic and conservation planning that are to be applied in developing countries instead of the original targets of the Kyoto Protocol? 4. CONCLUSIONS Clearly, there are natural cyclic forces actuating in the climate changes. Clearly, there are also anthropogenic climate changes; the human activities are going to break the CO2 equilibrium limit. In the worst case both anthropogenic and natural forces are actuating together and their effects are present as losses and damages from the new and growing extreme climatic conditions in the human time scale. If the 2°C guardrail is to be achieved, then there is no time for delay in investing in low-carbon or carbon-free technologies for energy generation. The nuclear energy is a primary source of non-polluting energy that meets the growing worldwide demand for electricity and contributes to reduce the CO 2 emissions. A better understanding of the nature and the climate change is an urgent research challenge, whose results could support and will regulate the course of many management and policy decisions now and into the future. However, without take a pause and learn lessons with the Fukushima’s accident, decisions to stop new nuclear projects and/or close down nuclear power plants are ongoing. These decisions do not consider that the risks of the nuclear energy are established while the risks and uncertainties of the climatic variations are just at the beginning. Meanwhile the human actions to establish a legally binding international agreement, whereby all the participating nations commit themselves to tackling the issue of global warming and greenhouse gas emissions basically remains as unattainable goal since 1997. REFERENCES 1. J. Hansen et al. “Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?”, The Open Atmospheric Science Journal, 2, 217-231, (2008). 2. W. Steffen. “THE CRITICAL DECADE Climate science, risks and responses”, Canberra, Climate Commission Secretariat, Commonwealth of Australia, (May 2011). http://climatecommission.gov.au/topics/the-critical-decade/ 3. Monte Hieb. “Global Warming”; “Climate and the Carboniferous Period”, “Global Warming: A Chilling Perspective”, and “The Ice Core Record”. http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Articles1.html 4. J. Hansen et al. “Global surface temperature change”. Rev. Geophys., 48, RG4004, 29p., (2010). http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2010/2010RG000345.shtml 5. Hodell, D.; Brenner, M.; Hoover A. “Maya Civilization Done In By Brightening Of The Sun”, Daily University Science News, (17-May-2001) http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Reference_Docs/Maya_Civilization_Done_In_By_ Brightening_Of_The_Sun.pdf 6. Geerts, B. and Linacre, E. “Sunspots and climate”, Univ. of Wyoming, 3p., (Dec. 1997) http://www-das.uwyo.edu/~geerts/cwx/notes/chap02/sunspots.html


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