for. Renewable Energy: Technology, Trends, and Economics. EESI/ACORE. February 5, 2013 Washington, D.C. by. Shirley Neff
Trends in Renewable Energy
for Renewable Energy: Technology, Trends, and Economics EESI/ACORE February 5, 2013 Washington, D.C. by Shirley Neff, Senior Advisor U.S. Energy Information Administration
Independent Statistics & Analysis
www.eia.gov
U.S. primary energy consumption, 2011 Solar/PV 2% Geothermal 2% Waste 5% Wind 13%
Biofuels 21%
9% Wood 22%
Hydro 35%
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Review 2011 Shirley Neff, EESI/ACORE February 5, 2012
2
Electricity generation from conventional hydroelectric and other renewable sources, 2001-2012
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly Note: Data for 2012 are preliminary. Other renewable sources include wood, black liquor, other wood waste, biogenic municipal solid waste, landfill gas, sludge waste, agriculture byproducts, other biomass, geothermal, solar thermal, photovoltaic energy, and wind.
Shirley Neff, EESI/ACORE February 5, 2012
3
U.S. electricity demand growth, 1950-2040 percent, 3-year moving average 2011
History
14
Projections
12 10 8 3-year moving average
6 4
Trend line
2 0 1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Shirley Neff, EESI/ACORE February 5, 2012
4
Additions to U.S. electricity generation capacity, 1985-2040 gigawatts 60
History
Projections
Other Renew Solar Wind Oil and Gas Nuclear Hydro/other Coal
50
40
30
20
10
0 1985
1995
2005
2015
2025
2035
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Shirley Neff, EESI/ACORE February 5, 2012
5
Wind electricity generation capacity additions outpaced natural gas in 2012 U.S. electricity generation capacity additions gigawatts 14
wind
natural gas
other
12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Annual Electric Generator Report (Form EIA-860) and Monthly Update to the Annual Electric Generator Report (Form EIA-860M) *Note: The 2006-2011 data are final while the 2012 is preliminary.
Shirley Neff, EESI/ACORE February 5, 2012
6
Non-hydro renewable generation more than doubles between 2011 and 2040 Non-hydropower renewable generation billion kilowatthours per year History
600
Projections
2011
Advanced biofuels cogeneration (not visible)
500 400
Wind 300 200
Power sector Industrial CHP
100 0 1990
Biomass Solar Geothermal Waste
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Shirley Neff, EESI/ACORE February 5, 2012
7
Renewable generation is added beyond that required to meet state RPS policies RPS qualified generation billion kilowatthours per year 700
600
Generation potentially eligible to meet state RPS policies
500
400
300
200
Generation needed to meet state RPS policies
100
0
Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Shirley Neff, EESI/ACORE February 5, 2012
8
Levelized electricity costs for new power plants, excluding subsidies, 2020 and 2040 costs for new U.S. electricity power plants 2011 dollars per Megawatthour Nuclear
2020
Wind
Gas combined cycle
Coal Capital
O&M
Fuel
Transmission
Nuclear
2040
Wind
Gas combined cycle
Coal 0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Shirley Neff, EESI/ACORE February 5, 2012
9
EIA renewable & storage capacity data collection EIA-860 – Respondents own/operate/represent an electric generator/power plant Total facility capacity ≥1MW or greater (facility, not individual generating units). Detailed data on individual generators collected. Facility is grid connected (can take energy from or deliver energy to the grid, but does not normally have to do either one to be a respondent). EIA-861 –Respondents are utility/distco/EDC who report behind-the-meter/distributed/small generators (3 distinct buckets) Net metering bucket--If there is a net metering arrangement in place, report all net-metered generators as long as the facility is 2MW or smaller, with these breakouts: state location, sector breakdown (residential, commercial, industrial, transportation), and technology type (photovoltaic, wind and other). Distributed generation bucket – For commercial and industrial facilities
