TWENTY-FIFTH ANNIVERSARY KEYNOTE ADDRESS

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the conference and the field of simulation reached ma- turity as professional ...... Principles and methods. Cambridge,. Mas- sachusetts: Winthrop. Publishers.
Proceedings

of the

ed. J. J. Swain,

199.2

D.

Winter

Simulation

Goldsman,

Con~e~ence

R. C. Crain,

and

TWENTY-FIFTH

J. R.

ANNIVERSARY

THE

WINTER

Department

Cambridge,

of Civil

Wolverine 4115

Thomas Graduate The

of Technology 02139,

Ann

U.S.A.

Software

Virginia

22003,

this

tive

paper

we

of the

Winter

well

as the

field

ing

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origins

1974), part views

the

past

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to

Address,

Keynote

James

the

O.

Henriksen

the conference

and the field

as professional

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in

its

in

of simulation

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the

United tute

traditions Keynote WSC’S

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by

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ORIGINS

Although Simulation puting

in

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sense

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origins

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late

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to certain 1940s,

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as Program

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conference Force

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responsible

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additional

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and Julian

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the conference.

an Op-

Force

scientific

Electronics

of

1967.

interactions

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employee

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scale of

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WSC

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netics

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ulation

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user

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future

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individuals—Harold

Command

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presents

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activities,

tics

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(1986-1992)

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part

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highlighting

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third

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turity

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reestablished

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erations

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initiative

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ture

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CONFERENCE:

TWENTY-FIVE

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Massachusetts

KEYNOTE

SIMULATION

CELEBRATING

Joseph

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ulation

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gained

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opment

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SIMULATION—A

HISTORICAL

PERSPECTIVE,

1967–1992

of Sim-

December

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serv-

Simulation

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as Program

no surviving

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was

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Philip

on Applications

serving

lieved

of Simula-

at the

1971

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Waldorf-Astoria

Joseph

1970,

Cit y, with

Chair.

Fifth

1971,

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conference

Conference:

on Applications

December

Astoria

that

of Simulaat the

Arnold

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basic

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of

of Simulation

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gram

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Gordon,

mately

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riety

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years

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computers

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mainframes

properly

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control

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tion.

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years.

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level

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1969);

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1976);

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1976);

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simulation

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1983);

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1978);

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1981);

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1978);

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1979);

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1977);

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1979);

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1983). But

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1976.

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1980

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in Management

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simulation

article,

a proceedings

independent

ners

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Schruben

(1981);

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D. Welch

and

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ill

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W.

and

W.

Schruben

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and

Whitt

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in

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to

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of time.

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1986,

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winners

Joseph

(1990);

and

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Philip

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Zazanis

also to

presented may

Lee

(1990);

established

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individuals

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up

been

to

John

(1989);

position

B. Pritsker

Banks,

J.,

and

system

P. A.,

Simulation Cliffs,

New

Bratley,

P.,

riod

one

for

guide

to

was

characterized

the areas

of simulation

puter

hardware,

documentation and lel

with

these

Conference riod cial

Year each

McLeod

(1986);

G. Sargent

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by

exciting

G.

Englewood

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of simulation.

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Winter this

S. W.

Crane,

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J. S. Carson

simulation.

Forrester,

significant

As

these

the

they

to bring

field.

continued and

and use of computer

long

one

George

the

years,

general

service

post-Renaissance

Robert

Highland

the

cumulative

in

have

Period,

recognize

be given

(1987);

A. Alan

positive

Cox,

(1988);

community

E. Nance

Harold

Aver-

coauthors

Cao,

extraordinary

simulation

in

in

have

comes

and be stimulated

Proceedings,

subsequent

Bulgren,

P. Zeigler

Renaissance

Award

provided

the

Donovan,

WSC

Service

over

(2d

Meketon

(1985);

Michael

on Simulation

tinguished

W.

Lavenberg

(1983);

Xi-Ren

and

Lee

(1991).

TIMS/College who

Suri

S.

to

B. Pritsker

Bernard

coauthors

developments

BobiUier,

Win-

coauthors

Kelton

progress

annual

community

Prentice-HalL

The time

been Marc

with

A. Alan

(1987);

delberger, Ward

David

this

have

coauthors tied

and

(1989);

at

Stephen

(1982);

of a journal

Award.

years

coauthors

R. Wilson

Devroye

the

was

or a monograph,

changed

and learn

in these

a high-quality

simulation

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18

Crain

et al.

large in

presence

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DC

350,

of the

area.

a good

As

General

ing

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THE DEVELOPMENT TO 1992 Bob

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23

constant

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field.

provements.

THE

REFERENCE Polya,

G.

1957,

mathematical sey:

How

to

method.

Princeton

solve

it:

2d ed.

University

A

new

Princeton,

aspect New

of Jer-

FUTURE

The

growth,

icant and

in

the

changing

simulation.

Growth

of the

1976.

At

seven

hundred

ington,

DC enough?”

lieve

that

get

D.

PROSPECTS

FOR

THE

FUTURE

In

this

part

to

Conference ued

for and

success

growth

of the

grow

the

linked

field

since

the future broader

issues.

discussion,

I will

examine

Unlike WSC

the general

rests

entirely

falters.

growth

they

directly

of the In

the

some

discuss

Simulation

of simulation. profession.

to

I will

Winter

contin-

on the

future the

for

simulation

Many

factors

number

of parallel

sessions

would

increase

crease

the

in the

the

simulation latter of those

field

part

tion must

is growing

demand

program.

field with

of simulation, the

attendees

by attendees drop;

and

ways

to enhance

the future the

of

lead-

in the there

the

conference

quality

Program

Committees

as poster

sessions

participation.

the

of the will

and in-

for participaof the

in

then

recent

large years,

contributed

to

The

the

spin-off

or demonstration

without Perhaps

other

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is to

participation develop

of WSC

more

challenge

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be added

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does

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in-

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actual

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for full-length

papers,

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rificing

rate

percent.

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Because papers

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Crain

24

Character

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et al.

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Celebrating

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and techniques. Somehow all this development will need an environment that permits the user to identify and use the appropriate tool and to switch easily between tools. The platform for providing these facilities may be the simulation environment. The simulation environment plays exactly same role that an operating system plays in managing the software subsystems of a computer. The simulation environment manages resources and provides the means for users to navigate among them. All simulation users now recognize the importance of the graphical user interface in an operating system and the direct application of such a graphical user interface to simulation environments. Furthermore, it is easy to see how new developments in operating systems have direct consequences for the simulation environment. Environments in the future will be visual, interactive, and intelligent; in addition, they will work with a wide variety of hardware and software resources. It is not hard to conceive of a simulation environment that incorporates sound, video, and a host of other sensory equipment for understanding systems through simulation. Although a universal simulation environment might be a laudable goal, it is unlikely to happen in the near future. What is more likely is that interoperability will be addressed. Interoperability is in the best interest of the software vendors. A universal simulation environment is not.

Future of Simulation

Applications

In a peaceful world, economic conflict and cooperation surfaces as a prominent concern, as individuals and nations attempt to amass economic security, instead of military security, for themselves and their communities. There is now global competition on a level never before witnessed. The impact of this fundamental shift in the relationships among communities is not well understood, and it is the subject of keen debate and discussion. Simulation will undoubtedly find a role as people try to find ways to develop an advantage in the production of goods and services. Effective production seems to center on the quality of products and services, the cost of those products and services, and the timeliness of their production. The number of simulation applications dealing with these topics should increase. On the other hand, the role of competition may have a negative side in that there may be less sharing of information in an effort to of maintain a competitive advantage. The intensity competition among North American vendors of simulation products has increased greatly. Non-American vendors of simulation products will join in the pursuit of market share in the near future. The market may

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shift to the European Economic Community, where there is evolving perhaps the largest base of simulation users and software developers. Because simulation users are often closely allied with individual vendors, vendor loyalty may become an even more important tool; and vendors also may opt out of disclosure of tools and techniques. In addition to problems involving competitiveness, there remain world-class problems. These would include the environment, poverty, overpopulation, disease, health care, education, and ethnic conflict. All these are problem areas for anyone in any place and provide significant opportunity for the simulation community at large. CONCLUSION Suppose that all computing-technology restrictions were totally eliminated. Suppose simulations could be represented, executed, and presented in a perfectly convenient and user-friendly way. If we overcame all the technical problems of simulation, what would be left? The answer is that people have always, and will always, pose the ultimate limits to our use of simulation. The grandest challenge of all is the development of human potential. Although technical problems are unlikely to be totally resolved, it is certain that the imagination and insights that people have will never be replaced. People and their interaction with simulation will offer the continual challenge. How can the users of simulation be taught, shown, and urged to develop their skills so that simulation is used ethically and appropriately in solving problems that concern us individually and as groups? Somehow the packaging of simulation technology for use by the less sophisticated users must contain the appropriate safety nets. The challenge is to make things sufficiently easy to use without encountering the dark side of simulation misuse. Overenthusiastic marketing tends to oversell the technology, and it is too easy to perpetrate a cruel hoax on the naive user. Much of the simulation advertising tends to pander increasingly to that end, resulting in disillusionment, misuse, and missed opportunity. Simulation problems have grown so much in complexity and scope that collaboration in solving problems offers the best hope. Software vendors and research. methodologists cannot function separately. Software needs methodology, if it is to address problems of fundamental importance. Receareh need~ em. venient access to technology, since methodology alone is sterile and pointless. Users need simulation that employs the finest methods within the best software to solve real problems. Perhaps the most valuable

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contribution of the Winter Simulation Conference is that it is a meeting place to bring these different interests together. AUTHOR

BIOGRAPHIES

ROBERT C. CRAIN has been with Wolverine Software Corporation since 1981. He received a B.S. in political science from Ari~ona State University in 1971, and an M.A. in political science from the Ohio State University in 1975. Among his many Wolverine responsibilities is that of lead software developer for all PC and workstation implementations of GPSS/H. Mr. Crain is a member of IEEE/CS, SIGSIM, and ACM. He served as Business Chair of the 1986 Winter Simulation Conference and is General Chair of the 1992 Winter Simulation Conference.

fessor Schriber regularly teaches both introductory and advanced industrial short-courses on GPSS/Hbased modeling and has consulted with such organizations as Exxon, General Motors, Monsanb Ford) ITT, Occidental Petroleum, and CPC International in problem-solving and teaching capacities. In the area of professional service, he has been a National ACM Lecturer, has cochaired the National ACM Lectureship Series, has served on the Board of Directors of the Winter Simulation Conference for ten years (chairing the Board for two of these years), and has served as Program Chair and Proceedings Coeditor for the 1976 Bicentennial Winter Simulation Conference. A Fellow of the Decision Sciences Institute and a former Visiting Scholar at Stanford University and the Swiss Federal Technical University in Zurich, Professor Schriber is currently an Associate Editor for the International

JOSEPH M. SUSSMAN is the JR East Professor and Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He has been active in the field of systems analysis and simulation applications and methodologies as applied to transportation for many years, focusing in the areas of rail, freight, and intelligent vehicle highway systems. He has worked with a number of transportation organizations, government agencies, and commissions in the U.S. and abroad; and as the first Distinguished University Scholar at IVHS America, he has helped structure a national program in this new area. Professor Sussman was the Program Chair of the 1971 Winter Simulation Conference, and he was the General Chair of the 1973 Winter Simulation Conference. He has authored many publications, has lectured extensively in the U.S. and abroad, and has served as the Head of the Department of Civil Engineering and as the Director of the Center for Transportation Studies at MIT. THOMAS J. SCHRIBER is Professor and Chair of the Department of Computer and Information Systems in the Graduate School of Business, The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan. He holds B.S. (University of Notre Dame), M. S.E., M. A., and Ph. D. (University of Michigan) degrees. Professor Schriber’s principal area of interest is simulation modeling of discrete-event systems, including modeling algorithms, graphical modeling interfaces, the analysis of input to and output from simulation models, the use of animation in simulation, and the applications of simulation. He has authored or coauthored several-dozen articles and has authored or edited eleven books, among them An Introduction (Wiley 1991). Proto Simulation Using GPSS/H

Journal

of Flezible

professional affiliations IIE, ORSA, SCS, and TIMS. tems.

His

Manufacturing

Sys-

include ACM, DSI,

JAMES O. HENRIKSEN is the President of Wolverine Software Corporation, located in Annandale, Virginia (a suburb of Washington, DC). He is a frequent contributor to the literature on simulation and has presented many papers at the Winter Simulation Conference. His first WSC paper, entitled ‘Building a Better GPSS: a 3:1 Performance Enhancement ,“ was presented at the unofficial 1975 Winter Simulation Conference. This paper detailed early results in the development of the world’s first of (and still the only) compiled-code implementation GPSS. In the years since 1975, he has contributed papers dealing with event-list algorithms, simulation of conveyor systems, and modeling methodology. A number of the methodology papers presented examples for which the “obvious” solutions encouraged by the world view of the simulation software used could be significantly improved upon with some additional thought . Mr. Henriksen served as the Business Chair of the 1981 Winter Simulation Conference and as the General Chair of the 1986 Winter Simulation Conference, and he has served on the Raard af Directors of the conference as the ACM/SIGSIM representative. From 1980 to 1985, Mr. Henriksen served as an Adjunct Professor in the Computer Science Department of the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, where he taught courses in simulation and compiler construction at the university’s Northern Virginia Graduate Center. STEPHEN D. ROBERTS is Professor and Head of the Department of Industrial Engineering at North

Celebrating

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Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina. He received B. S.I.E., M. S.I.E., and Ph.D. degrees at Purdue University. He has held previoas academic and research positions at the University of Florida, Indiana University, Purdue University, and the Regenstrief Institute. His principal interests are in simulation modeling, simulation-language design, simulation-software engineering, and the application of simulation to medical-care problems. He is the developer of the INSIGHT simulation language and a frequent contributor to the simulation literature. He on is the Modeling Area Editor for the l’hnwactions an Associate EdModeling and Computer Simulation, Science, and a former Associate itor for Management He has served as SecretaryEditor for Simulation. Treasurer and Chair of ACM/SIGSIM. In addition to being a presenter, session chair, and track coordinator at various Winter Simulation Conferences, he was Proceedings Editor for WSC ’83, Associate Program Chair for WSC ’85, and Program Chair for WSC ’86. He is the TIMS/College on Simulation representative to the Board of Directors of the Winter Simulation Conference. He has been the Secretary and ViceChair of the WSC Board and was Board Liaison for WSC ’90. He is currently Chair of the WSC Board of Directors.

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