the conference and the field of simulation reached ma- turity as professional ...... Principles and methods. Cambridge,. Mas- sachusetts: Winthrop. Publishers.
Proceedings
of the
ed. J. J. Swain,
199.2
D.
Winter
Simulation
Goldsman,
Con~e~ence
R. C. Crain,
and
TWENTY-FIFTH
J. R.
ANNIVERSARY
THE
WINTER
Department
Cambridge,
of Civil
Wolverine 4115
Thomas Graduate The
of Technology 02139,
Ann
U.S.A.
Software
Virginia
22003,
this
tive
paper
we
of the
Winter
well
as the
field
ing
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origins
1974), part views
the
past
the second
to
Address,
Keynote
James
the
O.
Henriksen
the conference
and the field
as professional
concludes prospects
the for
in
its
in
of simulation
of these
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traditions Keynote WSC’S
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mathe
ORIGINS
Although Simulation puting
in
OF
of Simulation System
some
sense
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held
the
origins
can be traced in
the
late
of
the
to certain 1940s,
the
Winter
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3
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Hilton
attendance Logistics
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as Program
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sponsorship
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Reitman,
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the General
designated (later
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conference Force
a leader
Serving
IEEE—the
at the
Air
initia-
Norden
and
Hixson
Computing
within
users’
responsible
in the
additional
LogisProject
and Julian
of the
the conference.
an Op-
Force
scientific
Electronics
of
1967.
interactions
Air
employee
Using
scale of
Simulation
of GPSS;
(GPSS),
14, 1967, actual
IBM
Chair
secured
Computer
WSC
(the
and
cations
netics
from the
System
IBM
the
spring
G. Hixson,
with
of GPSS
ulation
for
on the
primarily
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as General
ene THE
user
of Electrical
sociation
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the
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and support
to sponsor
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27695,
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of SHARE
a prominent
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took
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marketing
which
Stephen
Address
future
re-
Engineering
State
individuals—Harold
Command
Arnold
presents
summarizes
activities,
tics
over
of the
(1986-1992)
Keynote the
part
(1967–
highlighting
and
third
Period”
turity
Address,
reestablished
Research
U.S.A.
Roberts
resulted
erations
Sussman
WSC
initiative
Manager
D.
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first
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Carolina
WSC
three
the
(1976-1985)
In
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hold
current
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traditions
in
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Period”
was
reinforced.
and
and
Thomas
of the
by
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Years”
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of simulation
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and (WSC)
begin
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formed.
years.
part
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present,
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the
were
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conference
were
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Conference
and
in which
t went y-five
WSC’S the
of WSC
conference
of the
the
Simulation of simulation.
a period
of the
survey
Michigan
Carolina
Raleigh,
U.S.A.
of Business of Michigan
of Industrial
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Arbor,
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ABSTRACT
ture
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Corporation
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Massachusetts James
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ADDRESS
CONFERENCE:
TWENTY-FIVE
Robert
Massachusetts
KEYNOTE
SIMULATION
CELEBRATING
Joseph
Wilson
the
and
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of the Keynote
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Address tion
entitled
ulation
“The
Because the
2–4,
City.
and
Ockene
to the
gained
served
original
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1968
from
later
was
simulation
lation
tot
Sessions
opment
of new
guages
and
record
Committee
of the
Thus
of the
Third
as General
the
in
Los
Chair,
Chair.
American The
Proceedings
Philip
’74.
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position
for
future
to
America
from
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ference
lan-
twenty-five
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years, “Early
the
Years”
’74
Research
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Society
over
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introduced
proved
of
to the struc-
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innovations
for
completed.
continuously
have
1974
plan
WSC
Winter
desig-
on the
refinements
the
made
and
Editor
organizational was
in
General
Chair,
Editor
Operations
of
been
Jan-
Hotel
was the
sponsors,
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traditions have
the
the
(ORSA).
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of a separately
Proceedings
previous
held
Proceedings
Committees
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servserving
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Program
the
addition
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sponsorship
ture
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the
Conference
C. Hoggatt
was the
Highland
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Sussman
WSC
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was
Francis
past
during
to be remarkably
durable.
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Digest
of
of Simulation. of what
Conference
the
is
were
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Ockene
served
J. Kiviat
served
as Pro-
the
previous
sponsors,
sponsorship
of Management Third
from
Engineers Sciences
(TIMS).
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on
totaled513 pages, Proceedings
format
the
(AIIE)
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and
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serving
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Michel
Araten
following Winter
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year,
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1969–1973, at WSC
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SUSSMAN
the
SIMULATION—A
HISTORICAL
PERSPECTIVE,
1967–1992
of Sim-
December
General
JOSEPH
serv-
Simulation
in New
as Program
no surviving
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was
serving
attendance
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Philip
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serving
lieved
of Simula-
at the
1971
Conference
Waldorf-Astoria
Joseph
1970,
Cit y, with
Chair.
Fifth
1971,
9–11,
Chair
conference
Conference:
on Applications
December
Astoria
that
of Simulaat the
Arnold
Industrial
of the
basic
Fourth
was
1969,
to
of
of Simulation
subsequent
official
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addition
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1968
on Applications
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ing
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traditions
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and
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tion
conference,
for
M.
Washington
Steinberg
Joseph
Conference
of eight y
was
Harold
Harold nated
confer-
sessions;
there
Simulation
December
1969 conference
cations
the
on new
on Applications
Conference
held
Hotel
gram
WhiIe
Chair,
St.
WSC. WSC
by 1968.
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tional
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applications
structure
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Michael
papers
wit h a total
1974
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of simu-
1968
Austin
Washington,
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considerations,
and
as the Winter
crystallized
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and
1973
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Joseph
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scope
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of any
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at
with
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to include any
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1972;
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uary
conference
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SCS).
published
Conference
1968
attendance in
Chair.
Chair
Chair
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sessions
1967
in
WSC
as Program
of
of Simulation.
as a result,
to 856.
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manent
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ence grew
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largest
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held
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original
success
sponsors,
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financial
on Applications
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porated
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addition
and
a second
1968,
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Arnold
Second
a luncheon
technical
conference,
December
Gordon,
mately
sim-
of GPSS.” of the
1967
York
gave
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on GPSS-based
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of GPSS,
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of Simulation.”
presentations
applications,
developer
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to thirty-four
et al.
York
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of conference it is widely
’71 was
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I was
1992
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current
on
may
give
this
have
Keynote
on
evolved
those
It
from
is certainly you
my
early
that
and days
pleasure
of view
to
Twenty-
suggested
simulation
a great point
the
it was
perspectives
to give
Address
Conference,
Conference,
my
time.
to be able
to
Simulation
Anniversary
I speak they
asked
Winter
how to the
for
on simulation
me
Celebrating
and hopefully you’1
find
there’ll
For some very
and
years,
powerful
systems
in
a modeling
depending
detailed
or simply
a delay
as we map
is unmatched Often nique
we have
of last
model,
world
nique
resort
to
resort,
often
at a level
ing the (this
degree
els).
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back
in
of detail
with
usually
and
to
the
our
models
to be able
putationally It
has
seemed
to me that
performance.
Over
simulation the
way
Running
model
model particular
are
admit
this the
But,
early
hicle
and
and
My highway
automobiles concerned
years,
early
systems with
has
early
evolved
simulation
become
numbers
exception of our
modeling
was,
tional
statistics
without
were
speaking
cial:
the
This
simulation
enables
not
to
do
much
this
1970s
my
main
with is
which
involve
urban very
network
on
the
than
we were
made
intelligent
ve-
static
routing In
systems, issues.
The
of
the
we do our
major support
was
represent
and
riety
of techniques
serve
the model
I was
of the
insights
sys-
earlier.
In
into
addition,
com-
point
of view,
we’ve
a language
many
view-
sophisticated more
structure of the
choices
a simula-
environment
is no question
in that
made. area
in the Often,
of results.
in which early
we have
years
we dealt Now This
performance have
graph-
only
we have
us to dynamically time.
we now
can sit the
more
has
allow
dealing
much
more
is another
system
are that
is
there
that
deal-
accessibility
with
a much
in simulated
Back
basis
from
Back
to
off now
were
we
interaction
system
limited.
both
and
Now
been
which
1970s. we
computers
perspective
ations
early
mainframes
properly
advances.
a sta-
special
better
Conference,
and
have
doing
on
much
1960s
modeler
support
we’re
of platforms
modeling
strides
very
we tended
of the
limited.
to
in
years
advantage
with
use
we
of ways.
modeling.
Clearly
The
spe-
in which
take
a software
to
we
very
techniques early
a personalized
dealing
Graphical
is one
personal
strides.
So from
substantial
ical
the
on
was
utilizing
large
desk,
fact
in a variety
certainly
were
From
we’re
conventhat
the
effectively
of the
powerful
model
point,
use of fairly to
currently
of view
with
the most
of
we’re
modeler’s
major
on
that
years
primarily
which
job
in the late
early
made
in was
in
with
Fishman,
that
in the
I think
point
simulations,
an emphasis
networks.
complex flow
focus
and
effective
build
feasible.
the
statistical
I think
that,
George
control
of simulation
tion.
appropriate.
sta-
statistical
days
regard
and
techniques
the
like
in fact,
us to use
more
tistical
in
early
environment
ways.
environment.
with
interest
of an environment
to replicate
convinced
and
on in those
of a few pioneers
of languages
and more
of major
are of course
work
numerical
is transportation
emphasis
complex with
that
with
on the
puter
it.
about
beginning
back
on the
from
a factor.
statements
going
The
so, than
representations been
to me as I look
was
better.
more
diffi-
that
highly
we get
has
the
It seems
interaction
that
and
with.
and
if not
interest
field
1992,
of
of choice
we are concerned
with
a simula-
a tool
tool
that
ing
operates.
to be the
it’s
professional
comparative
versus
which
out
closed-form
ennow
systems
sug-
are indeed
field
insight
running
I have
to re-
1967
with
greater
the
has continually
some
probabilistic
behavior
system
in my
specific
current over
the
in issues
From
not
numerical
by particular
transportation
cases I was dealing very
in
system
tended
its
and
behavior
1967
rail
tistical
output
into
actually
that
I recall
with
professional
freight.
system
observing
persuaded
the
simulation
as my
analytic
make
been
transportation
systems
innovative
is com-
provides
is a realization
own
on intercity
model
results
in recent
structure
insight
as useful,
years.
less concern
My
grind
of detail that
precise
building
often
overly
being
model
the and
numerical
for me over
that
simply
level
I have
get
the
from
work results.
years
for making
we gain
tion
I must
con-
simply
fundamental
fact,
to
in which
the
the
the
building
gests mechanisms insights
are
using
me
are able
can
something
the
is, in
models
Rather,
into
can
in
complex
concern
Though
has
cases
objective
has turned
it
years the
both
is much
situations.
in practice,
environment
models
sults.
to get
we
that
mod-
certainly
feasible.
of simulation use
performance
day,
the
real-
analytic
models
reduce
world,
to answer-
and,
is, they us to
might
is a techreal
system
current
of a
represent
precludes
complex
forcing
the
complexity
computationally-that
to a halt,
that it
to
about
culties for
say that
impact
simulation
many
In
multidimensional
I must
in both
within
Let
time
is appropriate
to model
highly
in
simulation that
questions
1967
cerned
Though out
tech-
to be expen-
solutions
turns
me for
evolved
probabilistic.
energy
And
tool
for
elements
through
complex
then).
terminal
as a tech-
tended
analytic
require
can lead
has
highly
had
and
relevant
analysis.
answers. it
of detail
relevant
it
both
(although
resort
of the
model
simulation
a stepping
closed-form
we quite
into
functions
last
car movements
of systems
since
it requires
of last
So, a rail elegance
characterized
as opposed
represent
fail
The units
in the
sive because
ity
function.
were model
of detail
levels
of individual
operating
tems
than
us to rep-
5
of Progress
vironmental
simulation
allows
of reality.
as a
complex
Using
that
at various
can be a microsimulation nique
way.
components view
that
simulation
us to model
framework
on our
here
Years
the
recognized
permits
a rather
system
perspectives
useful.
we have
tool—it
we have resent
be some
interesting
Twenty-Five
gives
with a vaob-
us some
we discussed
graphical
support
6
Crain
for
model
construction
concepts, cient
we will
system
through
interactive
made
tion
and
in
is in
the
relationship produces
a particular
operation,
but
certain
input
when
optimal
optimization
taking
ronment
in
the
since on
this
which
vanced our
of
to
models,
tem
So} its
in
world
back
could with
1960s
and
were
modest
analysis presents
can
point
to
simulation ample,
statistical
analysis
of the
some
kind the
what
seems
dead
wrong.
the
that
of an organized
and
all
have
society
ter
in an incoraccessibility and
issues, reflect should
effective results
a professional
its a ex-
ed in the be
way. can
but,
for done
in
Otherlead
in fact, responsibil-
It
to are
succeed,
seems
to
Simulation The
would
slowly
hypothesis a new
particular tion. did time, with
And
but
to
societies
was
back
on
lead
on discrete,
and
gree of professionalism
that
Win-
possible
the ad hoc orthe
Conference
Conference
with
years,
of the
to two
oblivion.
The
other
would
spin-
simulation
and
probabilistic
with
simula-
of those
happened.
What
viewed
as unlikely
at that
stable,
sponsorship
a
that
those
nature
into
a viable,
that
society
was that
the
the to see
sponsors.
ad hoc
sink
neither
such
a concern
a simulation
be-
Simu-
wanted
would
I frankly
existed
organizations
the
WinI think
Winter
surely
fact
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a dynamic
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which
has developed
point
and
emphasis
that
in
years,
of the
possibility
dealing
continued
years
degenerate
society
on what
organizational
guaranteed
the
was that
in
the
there
I had
happen, was
first
pe-
a comment
sponsoring
Conference
outcomes.
issues as the
as I think
that
were
exception
financially
with
me,
we
the
tension,
emerge,
I envisioned
ganization
off
these
might
with
could
the
and
and
In the early
who
be competitive
would
one builds
methodology
credible
conference
have
organizations
While
this might
systems-
etc.,
world
substantially
organization and
IEEE,
new
easily
are properly
use of simulation
in
over
one
mod-
the
a twenty-five-year
a creative
ad hoc
Conference.
we can
when
that
elegance
of simula-
strength
day
Conference
that
its
to
hopefully
in
interesting
developed
confer-
about
methodological
to make
Conference.
as ACM,
of
very
has
over
like
early
areas;
again
be a very
lation
This
also
sure
Validation
fair
we have
our
that
to
method-
of transportation,
the
evolved
time,
one went
has changed
I’d
me
Simulation
usefulness
The both
ter
tools
simulation
has
way,
about
This
or more
back
other
methodological
issues,
to be very
use
very
of us in
be quite
results.
We
the with
situations.
must
model
wise,
all
is in fact,
One
we faced.
to
world
an ad hoc pioneers,
the
of simulation
to
other
tween
Even
that
using
sure
such
technique
weakness.
in
of several
tension,
raised
framework
Indeed, in
very
of
at that the
these
In more
situations,
applications
issue
ago.
technical the
at this
technique,
and language
people
years
particular
to
of
is very
much
through
of how
with
Conference.
we were,
came
sense
of manufacturing,
it’s
I first
People
some
In conclusion,
in
and
Con-
variety this
is we focused
delicately,
of the
platforms,
And
of the
is and
deal
language
days
Pro-
there
in this
generation—a
a variety
seems
time.
The
compared
danger
I’m
some
barriers
modeling
unsophisticated manner.
in
in the
contribution
that
them.
modeling
when
here
use of simulation,
of
1970s
people y over
I gave
accessible
a major
rect
eling
more
credibility
caution
to the
from
early
the
They
are addressed.
recollection
issues.
papers
based.
input
very
at that
maturing
of the
applications
to get
that
has become
a much
of their
credibility
paper
lack
more
proud
one
techniques.
of the
ological
learning
model of sys-
simulation into
I think
that
a highly
tion
of the
much
raise
the
that
evolved
analysis.
barriers
the
some
with
and
devices
argue
has
‘Cone-for-one” it
building
the
way,
ences
one
in a tutorial
make
ad-
to interact
and
my
our
in the
methodology,
analysis,
issues
from
Conference
I should
accurately,
has
Visualization
graphical
can be very
with
of the
models
ability
model
devices
elegance
analysis,
on simulation
years
as I look
a continuing
percent
of statistical
days
simulation,
properly
to recognize
methodologically
methodological
feeling
me,
on simulation
forty
questions
different
way.
to
Conference,
represents
are
that
is used
analysis.
focus
me
ensuring
value,
interesting
About
those
changes
faster
to
riod.
to develop
deals
have
this
output
envi-
about
we all
of this
tool.
of systems
Now,
We’ve
twenty-five
The
enhanced.
tool
Conference
We
our
both
beginnings
helping
the
as-
us to use
special
very
ceedings
ference
of simulation
very
to structure
through
sophisticated
occur.
substantial
models. and
during
all,
early
and
our
is greatly
an important
in
began.
we have
operation
to
that
of systems
field.
challenge
allow
context
of
about
models
may
seen very
be concerned
a tremendous
run
to do so in an effective
substantially,
operation
real
that
of the
simulation
run
that
a single
the
has
optimiza-
of results
those
in the
Conference
languages
of
advantage
we have
world
indeed
performance
of simulation
So certainly
to
a technique
It’s
or
of packages
techniques
modeling,
ity
world
progress
a set
parameters
seen the development
effi-
construction
between
Simulation,
model,
vary
model
substantial
a simulation
is to
these
a more
support.
which
simulation.
we extend
toward
and
graphical
area
As
move
of visualization
Another been
as well.
certainly
et al.
by
sustained
it operates and strong
conference
professional with qualit
societies a strong
y control.
deAl-
Celebrating
though
I viewed
precisely sional
what
this
mechanism
the field
has
if
actually
have
been
down
the
the
Conference
but
not
this
pike from
from
the case.
So I congratulate
all
can
Again, so-called the tives riod
it’s
a great
on
the
for more
effective
bring
to the
together Conference Thank
quite
analysis
that in
the
we’ve
community
can
certainly your
my
that
accomplish
has
Winter that
Aspects ter
PERIOD
of the continuation
Simulation
ulation
this
commented
pe-
tremendous the
The
basis
to be a vi-
of tools
systems.
have
perspec-
over
continues arsenal
RENAISSANCE
(1976–1985)
OVERVIEW
of the
and
we have
of the
attention.
as one
made
that
of complex
framework
for
clear
SCHRIBER
a
first-rate.
back
you
simulation
THE
J.
accomplished. me
of
THOMAS
forming
together
is entirely
with
in the
for
congratulations
to come
clear
the
you
You
you’ve for
adminhigh-
putting
as simulation
element
a
sustained,
My
for
discuss
quite
it’s
progress
able,
confident
It’s
and
recent
necessity
I believe
evolution
of time.
progress,
with
Conference.
society.
pleasure
to
ratio
a financially one
here
Fathers”
opportunity
only
and
the
of what
‘Founding
not
continuing,
that
be proud
publication
importantly,
without
forum all
and
current
a viable,
assembled
professional You
quality
of the papers
respectable
Simulation
professional
those
strong
percent
But
the Winter
stature.
the
conference
another
to
more
of view
of view.
clear
is a quite
Winter
developed
quality
fifty
we have
but,
of the
point
it
that
keeping
point
It is quite
of professional
that
paper
attendance,
presentation
This
a society
every
has maintained for
conference
istration
yet
is
Conference
expected
a financial
less than
to me that
deal
the
accepting
an intellectual
submitted
and reflects
have
of Progress
advancing
without
have
to generate
Proceedings.
viable
by
Conference
are
great
that profes-
for
me
years
I would
done
accepting
in the
told
these
off,
is not
Simulation control, that
all
viable
viable
in fact
in fact, effective
developed
had
for
spinning
came
been
somebody
continue
must
A quite
Years
of simulation.
Now would
as improbable,
has happened.
Twenty-Five
that
I am been
we
quite pulled
itself
and in
during upon
first
era in
describes
in
from
the
1976.
series
The
tiatives
second
which
Renaissance
Simulation
eral
of
goal.
that
took
the
preclude
was
Period.
And
place
during
description
back
the
period.
series,
the
some
WSC
brink
1976-1985
iniWSC
traces
of
Space
are
almost
from
field
treatment and
WSC
section
the
sim-
sections.
conference
the third
this
is brief
1985
details
in
comprehensive
to
1974
the
during
developments
of
1976
how
section
place
field
of three
brought
took
of the Win-
the
a series
the end of the then-fledgling
how
the
evolution
and
the here
section
marked
and
Conference
sev-
simulation limitations
of the
material,
only
selected
OF
THE
so
highlights
are included.
THE
1976
REBIRTH
SIMULATION Perhaps
the
ter
Simulation
to
1985)
is
most
interesting
Conference’s that
there
The
Winter
Simulation
ber
of 1967
(as the
of
Simulation
as General and
Arnold
WINTER
CONFERENCE
Using Chair, Ockene
thing
about
Renaissance almost
was
Conference Conference GPSS,
Julian filling
no
with
Reitman the critical
the Harold
in NovemApplications G.
as Program role
Win(1976
Renaissance!
began on
the
Period
Hixson Chair,
of Publicity
Crain
8
Chair)
and
then
approximately 1974. for
But
1975
tain
did
for
take
the
WSC. the
Briefly,
(who
had to
ployer,
new him
give
as General way ment
it
a 1975
fact
that
on the
for
a 1975
of conferences
1974)
of repaying
largely work
Thomas
made
of the (the
now
known
1There was
be kept
actually
was
which
solo
(SCS).
This
sponse
to
the
(S CS—then become
a cosponsor
ference,
and
the
to
mento that
succession
of
listings years.
has that
the
day
therefore
been
1975,
the
for
to
was
was one
been compiled
with
be
that
SCS
r..
conference.
the
1968
in
repeated.
from time
The
the to
the The
the
is
regular
so that various time
The
usual
the
Bicenon
the
should
NBS
society
be invited
Roth
to
agreed
to
NBS,
and
had
to be General succession
at
year.)
the
of Michigan
Professor
active
on the
from
1968
with
Sargent
forward,
have
was
the
be Ed-
been
Pro-
and
that
had
the
General
in
University
WSCS
1976
Pro-
Chair
J. Schriber, of the
to become
Unito
for a 1976 conference.
persuaded
Thomas
State
Proceedings
to
time
program
WSC
agreed
conference,
became
Highland
been
1974
conference.
at the
was 1975
NBS
on board,
the
been
Chair
in one year
that
NBS
Farmingdale,
aborted
at and
of a 1976
conference,
the
Director Sciences
agreed
With
a Professor at
(Highland
1974
following
she
cosponsored
Highland, York
Davisj
Computer
WSC.
that
for
Chair
Ruth for
who
had
each
year
Program
Chair,
Program
Chair.
1975 Sacra-
consensus
outside and
con. When
1976,
slated
to the pos-
held
Paul
as cosponsors
New
the
been
which
a 1976
considerations,
Dr.
a 1976
Chair.
Chair
gram
in
of
for
1976
States,
of
NBS
which
year
of NBS
and
Call even
within the
Conference
that
with
NBS
Joseph
gram
United
Institute
within
joined
General itor
Na-
and
a cosponsor.)
Conferences,
from
in the
met
of the
organizations
Harold
of the
cosponsor
cosponsor
versity
Simulation
1975
falls
excluded
by
Simulation
by
would
And
the and
matter.
then
time
then
Iucorpomted-had
of a kind.
conference
the
Technology
the
conclu-
(the
Computer
track not
the
California,
beginning
on
that
and
the idea NBS
cosponsored
back
and
interests
organized
continues
thanks
agreed
to bud-
out
areas
place.
of these
of
assigned
Program,
receptivity
a WSC
pursue
mailing
breakout
Simulation
at that
mechanics
as professional
for
take
cospon-
was also positioned
a cosponsor
representatives
can-
of NBS
a person
Preliminary and
In view
become
NBS services
becoming
premises.
the
a WSC the
had
the potential Winter
October
from
in
even
Bicentennial
tennial
in
representatives
privileges
could
the
increased
and
rooms
of each
Sim-
all,
Winter
Councils,
WSCS
Simulation
consistently have
the
conference
Winter
AIIE
unilaterally
got
Sacramento
meeting
of
Engineers,
Sacramento,
Society
of
WSC
conference 1975
ference
of
the
and
y repre-
DC
become
experienced
the
of
Roth,
WSC.
function.
and
sibility
appointed
by having
in
as Simulation
solo-sponsored
the
was
this
cosponsored
SCS
the
cancellation known
for
at Syracuse
He conceived alive
place
by
conference
Papers
a conference
of the
at the
person
a December,
took
sponsored
for
a cosponsor
the possibility
NBS
conference
some)
that
of Industrial after
WSCS.
might
Conference
as the
to look
AIIE-cosponsored the WSC
Pritsker
Institute
to that
marked
Highland,
a Professor
Alan
WSC
American as IIE)
capital)
G. Sargent
Joseph
Sargent,
replaced
1974
franking
was
was
Special
with
resulting
to society
conferences
Roth
of Robert Harold
NBS
geting,
that
Winter
in 1976 after
forth
such
closed
unlikely
put
be-
who
sponsoring-societ
to ponder
of having
provide
loss of momentum
seem
were
itself
resonated
damage
and
of a 1976
merits
employee
in Washington,
the
full-time
part
a 1975
survey
the
then
the
sor
be resumed.
F. Roth,
had
AIIE
it
was resumed
J. Schriber.
University,
with
1975 WSC
con-
was
conclusion on
to
staging
(except
(and
at the
1975
the
discussed
(ACM’S
Simulation,
called
celed
Sargent
an NBS
idea
as NIST,
Technology)
WSC.
of interested
was
meeting.
not-for-profit
record
money
to have
to the initiative of Paul
sion
the
a perfect
a
sympathetic
though
for
session
known and
of ACM/SIGSIM
Sargent’s
to have
officially not
Group
The
Roth,
time
cosponsorship
such
the societies
were
coupled
or would
the series
been
faith
emthat
unwill-
1975
even
in failing
his
Further in
(working
seed
reas-
of a 1976
Paul
the
WSCS).
a rump
fashion
money
weakened
societies,
could
But
never
had
Conference,l
series
with
at
sentatives
in
seed
the
The
continuity
idea
the
a replace-
Conference.
organizations
sponsoring
ulation
enough
conference
conference,
conference.
this
now
of Standards
a cosponsor
chair
to function
appoint
As a result,
to supply
to sponsoring
cer-
of Standards,
Institute
Steinberg
were
evolved
situation
had
1974
IBM
to
in timely
negative
series
and
feasible
books
the
come
death
clear
needed
situation
conference.
asked
Bureau
was by
became
time
Simulation
the
sponsored
not
the
1974
when
This
1974)
location
within
release
Chair
to
National
material-
Harold in
a new
superiors
Winter
tributing
Chair
eventually
the
was
General
be the
conference
Chair
at
it
Chair.
that
tional
of
planned all but
would
1975
General
duties
Steinberg’s
it seemed
in
Interest planned
and
ing
times
January
Conference
and
Program
new
IBM,
to
place,
six
through
in continuity
1975 been
repeated
intervals Simulation
break
didn’t
ize? signed
not
this
Why
regularly
the Winter
that
knell
was one-year
et al.
conWSC
over
the
The
three
Coeditors,
also
serving
as
took
on the
with
Highland
details
as carried
cruited
for
lines,
this
Highland,
out
Associate task
of being
overseeing by
purpose. Schriber,
a staff Working and
the
Proceedings operational
of students against
Sargent
he
tight met
re-
deadin
early
Celebrating
spring
of 1976
program and
to plan
Sargent,
who
acquaintances them
mental
and
at the
ference
was
vanced
planning and
attended
time
after
we are now
Winter
306
able
Simulation
the
for
baton
to celebrate
and
(The
con-
Timely
ad-
confer-
has been
passed
us to the
twenty-five
point
years
draft
of
ING
WSC
THE
1976-1985
and
revisions
triggered
nal
to the
nascent
the
bylaws
was
to know
ment.) for
These
their
by virtually
that
time,
Operations
answer
under
number
WSC
of
developments
during
on in the
the
Set
of
1976–1985
following
Establishing
in
the
evolution
period
are
of
the
of
Directors
and
a
Conference
on the
Applications
tion
Using
GPSS
(the
first
and
staged
in
hoc
fashion
in making
ad
were years,
such
are provided Discussion
the basis ing
the
Early
Years
known
as the WSC of individuals society
self and had
‘simulation
the
informal made
and
cancellation After
the
cosponsors
formed
veloped Bob
told
their
Sargent charters
and
used
for took
for ideas
the the
several from
the
no written
may
Board.
of things to
representatives of
Directors
AIIE
the
to
continuing charters
WSC
obtain
con-
and
de-
copies
of
conferences to
to
of the sponsoring surfaced,
some
y basis,
resulting
the yet
by all
Board
been
of
oper-
(and
of the
formulate
to
may
sponsoring
has
the
Track),
the
Advanced
Art
Reviews,
it would
Track
but
at an advanced
1992
evolved WSC,
and to
the
Analysis
original Tutorials
and
Methodology,
and
practitioners
Modeling
but
Renaissance
Period
to
warrant
the
experts,
education
years.
government
continuation
by
explicit and
also for enough sessions
of sophistication).
to the given
to
State-of-the-
the
degree
Tu-
(corresponding
Track),
advanced
Tutori-
during
over
the
Intro-
Fundamental
yet large
for
to
has
not
force
for
years
example,
a group
tent
to
level
Software/Modelware the
Practitioners
(for
over for
researchers,
tutorials
the
be designed
and
this
analyAnd
experts
Thanks
an
of sim-
of input,
would
field
include
principles
analysis
a
Practhe
of experiments.
Advanced
Methodology
of having
simulationists.
Tutorials
of these a
material
WSC,
Tutorial
and
Track
cate-
1976
entering
and
design
(corresponding
torial
the
an Advanced
just
concepts
of the or
the idea
those
Practitioners
that
For
and
tutorials,
most
organized
Fundamental
for
and
structure
point
Track
the
similar
during
not
simulation;
seasoned
with
they
those
representative
other
more
als
been
some
unless
simultane-
way.
The
language
ductory
WSC.
initiative
these
have
leading
WSCS
Board
society
of this
nature
ulation,
This
it-
that
1975,
tried
would
introduced
designed
sis of output,
present
a col-
society
be
introduction
spon-
behavior
hoc
and
conference
only
Sargent Tutorial
Advanced
Dur-
were
it
1975
1974
cosponsor a WSC
bylaws
the
of
ad
as
no group
the
developments
planned
scares
no longer
cerned
the
of the
the
Indeed,
relatively
possible
there
govern
of indhriduals.
that
between
re-
used
or another
conference”
to
was but
by one
And
then
conferences.
of Directors
asked
(bylaws)
collection
was
there
America),
not
were
particular
of discrete-event
in these
model
(1967–1974) Board
article
informal
succeeding
to cosponsor.
procedures
thki
of
of WSCS
they
Track.
would
details Panel
approach
to be a liaison
the
agreed
would
hoc in the
for organizing
lection soring
ad
naturally
(More
any
and
titioners
interested
Anniversary
following
This
quite
happen.
at the
Tutorials
a part
Fundamental
organized
people
Twenty-Fifth
immediately
Proceedings.) flected
a conference
in the
was
by
WSC
but
in
Schriber
of Simula-
“WSC”)
objec-
member
of ORSA,
which
have
approved
the
Tutorials early
Bylaws
1967
various
societies.
gorized The
sponsors
then
in
that
officially
Structuring
Board
to the
with
commented
subsections.
a WSC
be)
sent
objections
situation
con-
that
objections
bylaws
of
develop-
on an intersociet
a metaztable
of
April were
A Board
a way
various
other
incompatible
never A
the
But
in
in
active
met
Society
bylaws
Board
(representative
Research the
inter-
revision
societies
society,
Gass
as time
under
then
were
every
Saul
third
the
were
were
and
known
considerations
sponsoring
bylaws
approval
tions
ously
the
by
bylaws
be
inevitable
Sargent’s
approved
that
would After
by
Board,
(Meanwhile,
tent
ates
PERIOD
what
lags
in
DUR-
for
of Directors.
societies.
DEVELOPMENTS
bylaws
Board
them SELECTED
of
WSC
rewrite
progress!
9
of Progress
1979.
at NBS
a 1977
bringing
Conference
funda-
of 1976,
success.
out
year,
and
place
people.)
carried
that
year
simulation
to be on panels
took
financial
by
was
since
on smoothly
and
in December
and
first the
papers,
conference
Maryland,
a technical
technical
participants
application
Years
by Schriber
professional
tutorials,
The
The
custom-built
conference
give
advanced
conference.
was both
that
past
to
in Gaithersburg,
conference.
and
contacted
and
persuaded
ence,
the
was conceived
Twenty-Five
(An
of abundant the
in
has
WSC
discrete-event
interesting
aside
multilevel been
a po-
simulation
is that
because
W S C educational
components,
military
can get budgetary
personnel
some
10
Crain
approval this
to attend
otherwise
today
than
just
ever
entering
stantial important
before,
the
sequence
of simulation
themselves to appropriate
at the
or all
so the
W.
experiment
the
Pooch
hibit
the
Area
has been
can increment
their
can
by paying
better
careful
sessions
of
at-
provided
and
There
the
early
concern
on
the WSC And
the
the
not
the
approach
1967
WS
C
hotel
their
products.
by
the
vendors,
for
these
for
conference
trying
they
check
holding
and
open
got
And
politely
This
all changed During
and
during
the
(President
of
now
the
who
IEEE
the
confer-
hotel
for
looking
use of time
could
house
as an official
part
WSC an
once
Exhibit
fashion,
and
that
down
cost
the
of
which
IEEE/SMCS
to
the
et y) representative
Julian
member,
the
to the
liberation at
Board
the
next
it wasn’t
also would
The
of
Electrical and
provide
Board
hold
put
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1969);
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language
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books first
specific.
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Crain
14
first
book,
to become
on the
topic
known
as System
of Industrial
Dynamics
Dynamics
Dynamics),
was cited
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fessor
John
R. Platt
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University
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seminal
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1976);
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lation,
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1981.
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of research.
departments
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journal
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1976.
journals
stream
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lation,”
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or areas encourage
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As
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discrete-event
primary
as well,
consistently
thrust
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accommodated
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1968
elsewhere
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forward. The
TIMS/College
strumental of significant Under lege
in
Robert
1980
for
in Management
the
simulation
article,
a proceedings
independent
ners
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award
Schruben
(1981);
and
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D. Welch
and
Philip
ill
M.
W.
and
W.
Schruben
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and
Whitt
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in
the
to
have the
of time.
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1986,
this
award
year.
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winners
Joseph
(1990);
and
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Philip
Hei-
Zazanis
also to
presented may
Lee
(1990);
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individuals
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up
been
to
John
(1989);
position
B. Pritsker
Banks,
J.,
and
system
P. A.,
Simulation Cliffs,
New
Bratley,
P.,
riod
one
for
guide
to
was
characterized
the areas
of simulation
puter
hardware,
documentation and lel
with
these
Conference riod cial
Year each
McLeod
(1986);
G. Sargent
(1988);
S. Fishman
by
exciting
G.
Englewood
recognition
of simulation.
developments,
evolved
apace a firm
by putting
simulation the
during
Winter this
S. W.
Crane,
M.
into
place
and
and
solid
A.
in
archival
education, paral-
J.
Pefinan-
procedures
simulation.
manual.
Stow,
Soft ware.
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method
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and
An
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Verlag. simulation
made
sim-
Wiley-Interscience,
R.
1973.
S.
Sisson.
John
Concepts
Wiley
1978.
New
1970.
models.
and
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New
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Design York:
in
dis-
Wiley-
& Sons.
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North-Holland. System
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crete
New
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J.
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com-
E. York:
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the
T.
Wiley
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New
Chichester,
pe-
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ple.
and
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duction
and
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organizational
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rich
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Fox,
Macmillan.
(1991).
software
of this
professional
L.
period
time
was an extraordinarily
the
the
in
today.
II.
GPSS
Jersey:
breakthrough
period
enjoy
Pe-
favorably
both
WSC
B. C. Kahan,
B.
ness Review 1976–1985
documented
to unfold
Englewood
with
Emshoff,
A RETROSPECTIVE The
Renaissance
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J. S. Carson
simulation.
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the
they
to bring
field.
continued and
and use of computer
long
one
George
the
years,
general
service
post-Renaissance
Robert
Highland
the
cumulative
in
have
Period,
recognize
be given
(1987);
A. Alan
positive
Cox,
(1988);
community
E. Nance
Harold
Aver-
coauthors
Cao,
extraordinary
simulation
in
in
have
comes
and be stimulated
Proceedings,
subsequent
Bulgren,
P. Zeigler
Renaissance
Award
provided
the
Donovan,
WSC
Service
over
(2d
Meketon
(1985);
Michael
on Simulation
tinguished
W.
Lavenberg
(1983);
Xi-Ren
and
Lee
(1991).
TIMS/College who
Suri
S.
to
B. Pritsker
Bernard
coauthors
developments
BobiUier,
Win-
coauthors
Kelton
progress
annual
community
Prentice-HalL
The time
been Marc
with
A. Alan
(1987);
delberger, Ward
David
this
have
coauthors tied
and
(1989);
at
Stephen
(1982);
of a journal
Award.
years
coauthors
R. Wilson
Devroye
the
was
or a monograph,
changed
and learn
in these
a high-quality
simulation
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18
Crain
et al.
large in
presence
the
DC
350,
of the
area.
a good
As
General
ing
on WSC
showing Chair
but
I was
by
instituting
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oriented
THE
the
COMING-OF-AGE
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PERIOD
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in
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comes
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keynote
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raised
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the years
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simulation
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By
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period
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to
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ference;
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paid
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authorized,
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practitioner,
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permission!)
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THE DEVELOPMENT TO 1992 Bob
Crain,
and
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the
get
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overspend
what
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efforts
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perspective
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program. totally
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papers,
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full
abstracts)
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to compare to the
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level the
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first
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interesting
In
Program
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screening
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base-
intensity
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Chair
Committee.
careful
board.
Coordinators
1990
in the
Program
to the chore
papers
the
changes
Track in
confer-
place.
Program
onerous
the
modern
The
to comment
’86
I have
in the halcyon
era.
program.
added
of the
contributed
more
taken
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expanded
enabled
like
WSC
to assist
were
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to run
comparing
across
of significant
duties
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like
up,
year,
it was like
dead-ball
of WSC
past
like
1986
’92, and I work
Chair
the
it’s
to what
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that
over
on what
FROM
of WSC
as General
Bob
compared
ball
tions
Chair
served
watched
ence now, days
OF WSC
General
Having
having
tially
software
up some
right
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and
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on the cover
conference
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tueu-
former
space,
the
ordinators
Special-
that,
for
front
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appropriate.
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soft-
we tried
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to conjure
screen.
we were
quality
software
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fice
and
it
that
DC
the first
in
that
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meant
could
mutual
the
was
of software-
two
having
academic
pro-
that
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role
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on the
to describe
Software
of time
nized
somewhere
In
in
of
program
a presentation
the
be included
serve
years
WSC
Committee,
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present
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who
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were of widespread
track,
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titles
the brochure, What’s
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academia
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To get
about
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the
conference.
putting
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together.
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were
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requirements.
attendees.
explicit
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phemistic.
in
to give
merit
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presentations
easier
the
to have
had
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products
vendor
In
nonexistent.
or (s)he
it
organizations
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years,
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presentations
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gram,
ware
for
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marketing-
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word-processing
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the
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software/consulting
WSC,
Proceedings. issuing
made
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panel
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panelists.
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talk.
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policies
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conference.
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statements
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paper,
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important
very
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archive
interpretation no
position
made
make
be a minimum
in length.
formed
to
rule
with
must
it
vendors
will
19
of Progress
The
rang-
veterans.
participants.
to be represented
Proceedings,
ing
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objective,
WSC
seasoned
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possible
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sentations
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to
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we
ceedings
for
we felt
standards
expected
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a mixture
first-timers
reason,
promulgate
out
Twenty-Five
preskills.
of the
first
of Simulation The
devoted
first
WSC
to applica-
20
Crain
tions.
There
sessions. both
were
In
of
the
the
latter.
troductory and
no tutorials
contrast, In
Tutorial
separate
Review ’92
are
separate
Thus
devoted
to
five
In-
tracks,
and there
A.
Analysis
ten
the
Lower
with
the name
is not
to imply
overt
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tions
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part
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The
software
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tools
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PC
This
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management
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It’s
and
to a point
volunteer
interesting
conference, year and
program to note
individuals General
age, both
Chair
of these and
that
part
of
in 1990,
company
is used
positions
year.
have
honors,
years
a to
one
day and
emphasis
TION
COMMUNITY
THE
SIMULA-
important
time
frame
is the
platform
of choice
for
stations
are second
1992
both
are way
Simulation cess of solving are.
that
facilitate
the any
exploration expense
reasonable
PC is an ideal plications
ahead
exploration tools
can process,
structure
but
of making requests
what
valuable
they
on the
of concomitant
re-
have
and
ing
could
are
straightforward
ar-
from
right to
the
do,
but
would
be very
modeling
as input
to
the
that
the
identically
the
data
are
IID,
distributed,
of this
case to case. (competing?)
i.e.,
the
modeling
are those
data:
subprob-
curves; e.g. ! Johnson; the use of B6zier course, the fitting of classical distributions
should of the
platform
for such
exploration.
of the ready
availabdity
of such
administer not
do
so
precluding user. The
The im-
a hardware
data. oped
Visually
computerized, on a sound eling
oriented
to implement
all
visually underlying
can be a relatively
distribution
software orient
strategies. ed
software
methodology, short,
insightful
IID
families,
has been
of these
from
alternative
real prob-
and
appro-
widely
three for
used
independent
varies
methodologies
chore
be
generally
the
the use of generalized
they
the
We
are at least
area
of proper
although
assumption
There
know
is to
model.
be
simulation-
absence that
is
to
in this
Consider
data
capa-
rewards
they
difficult.
a simulation
Noth-
visually
enables
empirical
statis-
of visual insights
which in
to im-
Animations
improvement
which
state-
seems
truth.
however
that
to
remains
between
statistical
easily
software
techniques.
hardware/software do
my
of the
statement
from
(At
since
and
implication
continued
ists
say,
was
relationship
a screen
work.n
animation
my
challenge;
on
to
exploitations
The
and
Week
me
any
be further
be substantial.
assume
of
a Business
use of graphical
will
of
number
cartoons
for
displays
A
statement
Capturing
to visualize
statistical
one major
an antagonistic the
in
easy
The
exploitation.
or graphic
good
the
ply
priateness pro-
was
medium. for
tools
or even part
but
In the
and
difficult
(Work-
minis.)
science.
of problems help
as the
distance,
and
we learn
the most
1986–
PC
activities.
by a notable
of mainframes
a problem,
in the
of the
simulation
to PCs
Therefore,
Good
at the
emergence
is an experimental
lems lems.
development
for
tics
tools most
use cost
insights.
In retrospect,
should
(1986–1992)
single
for
hardware
out
“Watching
I regret
reaped
on
D.
WITHIN
it
a greater
“once-in-a-lifetime.”
DEVELOPMENTS
costs
potential
of animation,
quoted
didn’t
bilities.
to be regarded
equal
software
software
oriented
statistical
While
ment.
of the
Chair
In this
come
with
lack
interactions,
I was
time,
valid,
of the confer-
as Program
the next
the
cry
the form
as saying
offer!)
beginning
take system
company
but
program.
in the early
of
cost.
a visually
ago,
the
committee.
served
as once-in-a-lifetime “honor”
where,
by the
is no substitute
re-
community,
administration
and
that
by reduced
capabilities
provide
ticle
and
will
on the
in the
conference-planning
the
This
simulation
participation
afforded
is
may
is a
to increase,
attendance
virtually simulation
community
hardware
Thus
in software
graphical
com-
This
software
advertising.
in increased
members
professional
continued
overseas
also in increased The
have
wider
to a point
be mitigated
years efforts
between
dominate.
ductions
dors. Marketing
with places
of a much
has changed
of simulation
under-
available,
to the
obvious
of their
period. and
This
Thus,
a very
more
coupled
potentially
reach
trade-off
virtually
an era of
attendees.
can
la-
presenta-
the understanding
attendee
to the
first.
vendor
a two-and-a-half-day
both
clearly
coming
contrary,
of conference
of what
pressed
now
has descended
On the
WSC
standing
WSC
vendor
to maximize
on the
first-time
of the
are
cost,
operation, the
costs
beled,
The
hardware
within
tutorial/methodological
tutorials
of the
users.
matters. Software/Modelware
Some
following:
cost-free
is a State-
of the
are far-reaching.
include
includes
Tutorial
addition
track.
are
there
Advanced
In
platform
no methodology program
Methodology
tracks.
of-the-Art of WSC
fact,
and
Modeling
Methodology
and
present
et aJ.
input
and, of to the develWith based modactivity
Celebrating
(almost
fun).
Without
a daunting
task,
the
often
proper
done
Twenty-Five
software,
it is
inadequately.
Years
For
example,
plex
manufacturing
it
ing simulated E.
The
PC
provides
an ideal
People
remember
(Polya
1957).
theorem
being
orable
than
best
don’t
which
run
the
animation
the
limit
of the samof a model
easier
the
discover
central
replications
is much
rederiving
answer
environment. they
the distribution
as repeated
act ually
learning
that
“Discovering”
by watching
ple mean
the
most
and
more
mathematics.
to a student’s
are
mem-
is ‘why
tryit?”
you
than
kit.
For
Taken
collectively,
foster
ever-increasing
software.
to the
willing
be dealt It
to pay with
can fulfill
all the
Consider
the
inputs/outputs
rive
at printing
to
simulation
simulation
have
a spreadsheet
interface
standard) the
simulation
notably
is the
appearance
simulation by
amount
of time
learning
his
a student
tained
through
software ogy.
Thus, the
One
and
standards
deserves
tion.
the 1986–1992
Over
totally
the spend
it will less
time
within
and
for good
teacher,
as
the
ob-
for
special
what
period,
entrenched
lationship
the
we’d
price
operate range
in the
the
what
yond
which
user
expectations,
increasing
ment
costs
a good
much
money,
anima-
widespread operating
to
fulfill I expect
use of the region
This
can
get.
to the
is a region
left
in sig-
the
The
software
The
gave
curve;
factor
flat by
portion a point
of be-
rise to increased
With
develop(“For
the
flat
portion
paradoxically,
that
advent
are forced
of the
a
inde-
of demand;
expectations.
in which,
i.e.,
almost
increased
vendors
top
vendors
determining
right
has
at the
elasticity
re-
costs
a product
graph
of the
more.”) PC,
Right?
increased
for
therefore,
these
a mar-
development
The the
ac-
competition
be charged,
the price and
talk
any
ors has increased,
the
was on
a pep
saturate.
days,
cost.
you
of
community
has
portion
could
bounded
me
share.
to
old
flat
a price
was
fair
be charged
of development
charge
curve.
In
eight
question-
avoiding
frame,
Consider
of prices
establishing curve
our
a developer’s
page.
victim
in an expansionist
begun
can
to
the with
the
a con-
seven
simulation
of competit
have
over
having
gave
industry
dramatically. next
industry
and
time
number
simulation
applications.
the
all get
that
in some
done
Alan
profession
software
researcher,
namely
be
brought
been
been
been
we were
between
pendent in
we are
needn’t
to describe
roughly
had
1986–1992 The
wide
is recog-
days,
simulations
recall
had
legality.
all,
markets
could
I
have
software
give
After
some
of the
tool, that
that
Pritsker
our
and
the
to
key to use
to animate
company
might
the
changed
f~s
variable.
These
I distinctly
if not
simulation
and
other
I’d like
simulation
nificantly.
i.e.,
the use of animation
in certain
the
improved
constitutes
mention,
section,
Alan
and
Over
ar-
namely the The
simulations
pressures
ad that
taste,
ketplace,
methodol-
vendor.
simulation has become
the first
is leverage
improved
standards the
trend
to success
simulation
methodology
challenge
of the
and
users
implement
the modern
the
animation
useful.
this
Alan’s
eye.
have
anima-
gave me a
random
use of any
the
a competitor’s able
of time”
the
we are failing
with
ago.
black
markets, key
years
The
of newsprint
histogram.
more
period.
that
can
less
on the
tivity
than
The
placing
sophisticated
that
software
have
process.
improved
tools
simultaneously and
who
to bear
accepted
Furthermore, new
detail
promoting
Unfortunately,
is limited.
greater
versation
system.
a
later,
be.
about
of well-known
thicker
penetrates
individuals
of less
course
of this
editions
should
is to build
matured,
of simulation
trade
students
reach
supe-
simulation
indicator
amounts.
to the learning
teaching
the
has
invariably
substantial
by
to devote
a non-
the best vendor
a good
of second
or her
Other
on a widely
A good
the use of simulation
in
Therefore,
constitutes
textbooks,
implement
implemented
software
animating
1986–1992
place
hw software.
higher.
editions
to
the
the
to
Years
“nick-of-time”
like
than
of newsprint
the nick
it is and is not
tool of an
presses.
of performance,
a simple
with
as a reli-
a model
rolls
However,
with
To conclude
user. model
is it
not !
already
that
vendor
is a perfectly
but
community
for what
gotten
This
do,
(based
into
single
simulation
vendor
programs.
probably
“in
measure
of the
animated
manipulate
Obviously
for the simulation
be used
to
to
software
spreadsheet
As
want
vendors
standards
of the
wants
capability?
industry
no
feeling.
difficulty more
rolls
watching
be-
to portray
simulationist’s
of the
and
presses
when
in the
printing
an animation
see this
real
developed
to” supply
great,
nizing
will
tool
looked
of animation,
but
subject
system
the critical
a com-
application
The
I once
I developed
could
below.)
that
expectations
thing
spreadsheet rior
detail
more,
another
fuzzy
imagine
be regarded
of newspaper
distribution
costs,
challenge
want
(This
in a spreadsheet.
reasonable
of action
it.
apparent
who
a real
users
less for
lower
can
tion
show
of PC-based
present
in greater
user
considerations
necessarily
developer;
is increasingly
of the
with
expectations
software
above
expectations
Coupled
increased are
all of the
system.
it
example,
automated
to
the use of animation
of the
just
difficult
material-handling
is that
gion
warm, F.
is now
without
operation
collection
Often
question
21
of Progress
into
of an
of the devel-
22
Crain
et al.
Development cost
Sales Price Figure
opment
costs
How
is this
tions
when
(S)he
expects
into
their
machine, and
beneath
The
matter
kind
is a tall
users
for
piece
told
the
that—by
he’d
system
under
release
probably
never
Collectively,
the
place
great
of software PC
makes
bat
on the
companies
it
easier
the software it easier
into
were of the
for
individuals
business,
and
on the other
The
viability
to some “Graphical
the
times
the objectives
It’s high
to
Isaac a PC
ate
hand,
it
into
it makes
to fail.
tools
out
and
six
issues
must
always
they
WSC
IT
ALL
Over
the
considerable
past
applications-only
twenty-five evolution. conference
years
WSC What
has matured
has began into
underas
an
a con-
While
and
companies
as-
appropri-
done
his
making
with
several
editmonths softThe
Windows?
have
is that
been
a
great
a month
BAT,
he ex-
Newton’s
have
learn
set back
by
the importance to
meeting people,
it
the
more
of
purposes
are
able
producers
for
their
academics, from
and with
industry people
to set aside
for
people
in touch
software
competitive,
place
and
keeps
methodologies
the simulation
nificantly
if
are applied.
because
of tools gone
to line
is an important
industry,
TOGETHER
great
and
more
spent
be secondary
government/military PUTTING
he
might
bottom
glamour
what
of memory-management
months
The
be
AUTOEXEC.
of mathematics
years!
which
if
the
given
could
of
namely,
computation
envision
what
offers
accomplished
might
he
SYS and
straightening
for
can
However,
CONFIG.
fifty
what One
. . . .“
1992
simulationist. with
have
it
year’s
for
speculate
speaking,
apples,
consider
progress
can
could
(Strictly
to
ing
of the away
with
in this
the same,
get
One
the
sound
at one hundredth
effectiveness
Newton
that
of
are still
carried
th~ngs for
Environments
as a platform
ploration.
of talks
capability
technology.
deeds had
the
easy
the
some
program
environment
the cost, to improve
at the
of the papers
graphical
one hundred but
methodological Yet,
see descriptions
e.g.,
course,
ware,
Thus
to get hand,
Of
look
identical
conference,
and
y of levels.
If you
you’ll
strides.
above
one
WSC,
Cost
educational
same.
Macintosh.)
paradox.
question.
the
sociation
Monitor,
the
on the
ever
ever
and
a BelchFire
developer.
than
than
buy-
described
on a mul~iplicit
of
were
the long-term
sword:
and
of this
or later
Hence,
software
and
is brought
is a double-edged
on
3.87
an eye.
is slowed,
All
user
containing
sessions
he is
software
a GeeWhiz
circumstances
pressures
of progress
requires
same
$25,000,
only
no
he has, system
same for
runs
work,
systems.
If the
of
Development
ference
virtually
has had
to
use the
operating
and
developer
versus
first
min-
carcasses
or monitor
of software
4 or above,
operating
lie the
operating
way—it
a diskette
of
Price
remain
installation
software
even
$49.00.
ing a different Model
may
pop
$49.00.
a matter
the
the
of the
of different
order
in
surface
expects
release
Some
on a number
the
the
for
a quick
air
of keyboard
what
running.
the
expecta-
editor
of the box,
dragons”
user
what
no matter
rate
on
Sales
decrease.
a buyer’s
go through
be
Software
prices
a text
it out
“compatibility
to slay.
sales
Consider
purchases
to take
Hidden
many
while
possible?
(s)he
procedure, utes.
increase
1: Simulation
private
consumers one another.
has grown from
sig-
competing
differences
and
Celebrating
work
cooperatively
The that
easy
remain
will
simultaneous ogy, soft ware to
the are
good
of the
behind
us.
require
the leverage
improvements
in
development,
applications tinue
for
problems
of simulation serve
Twenty-Five
conference. The
problems
afforded
only
by
Years
of Progress
ers of the
conference.
tinuously
adjusts
the conference
methodol-
WSC’S
and innovative,
intelligent
place
for
while
providing
as a catalyst
in
WSC
promoting
will
con-
these
im-
the
Unless
to the
may
education,
technology.
23
constant
not
follow
challenge
current
WSC
carefully
changing
face
the success
is to continue
advances
in
a window
and
of the field. to be a show-
simulation
on the
con-
of simulation,
technology
future
potential
of
field.
provements.
THE
REFERENCE Polya,
G.
1957,
mathematical sey:
How
to
method.
Princeton
solve
it:
2d ed.
University
A
new
Princeton,
aspect New
of Jer-
FUTURE
The
growth,
icant and
in
the
changing
simulation.
Growth
of the
1976.
At
seven
hundred
ington,
DC enough?”
lieve
that
get
D.
PROSPECTS
FOR
THE
FUTURE
In
this
part
to
Conference ued
for and
success
growth
of the
grow
the
linked
field
since
the future broader
issues.
discussion,
I will
examine
Unlike WSC
the general
rests
entirely
falters.
growth
they
directly
of the In
the
some
discuss
Simulation
of simulation. profession.
to
I will
Winter
contin-
on the
future the
for
simulation
Many
factors
number
of parallel
sessions
would
increase
crease
the
in the
the
simulation latter of those
field
part
tion must
is growing
demand
program.
field with
of simulation, the
attendees
by attendees drop;
and
ways
to enhance
the future the
of
lead-
in the there
the
conference
quality
Program
Committees
as poster
sessions
participation.
the
of the will
and in-
for participaof the
in
then
recent
large years,
contributed
to
The
the
spin-off
or demonstration
without Perhaps
other
incennar-
is to
participation develop
of WSC
more
challenge
formats
booths
of
participa-
be added
conference.
does
volume
presentation will
in-
presentations.
increased
there
groups
conferences.
the
many
If t he conference
actual
then
par-
conference
for full-length
papers,
special-interest
of this
rificing
rate
percent.
contributed
focused
and
fifty
that
Because papers
to accommodate
rowly
factors
and
acceptance
are
represent.
contributed
speakers
are ten
sessions
there
is roughly
for
of parallel
conference
of good
a
to feel free
A larger among
expand
tive
number
having
participants,
means
is
three-year
the
there
of choosing
high-quality to
sessions
be-
of fift y to
with
year
are in conflict.
difficulty
the current
re-
many
or
attendees
visit
large
For
Some
attendance
for
perhaps
hunWSC
of WSC
everyone
with
enough
and
six “Is
success
almost
conference
not
that
know
in the Wash-
about
a two-
sessions.
papers
The However
it is possible
conference
the opportunities
Address, of the
depends
simulation
true,
influence
the
of WSC
verse is not while
Keynote
the future
for
in
about
question. the
allel
tion
of the
to
rebirth
elsewhere.
This
volume the prospects
keys
is small
Nonetheless,
INTRODUCTION
it is held
is held
revealed
its
to attract
attracts
at the end of the session.
teresting
ROBERTS
it
A session
to ask questions
STEPHEN
WSC
is possible
interest.
seventy-five
that
history
since
is an often-heard It
to
This
conference
community
appears
when
and
of the
intimacy.
attendee
of the
WSC
when
one
of the
of WSC
attendees area;
large
are signif-
conference.
conference
writing,
attendees
similar
nature
of the
this
of WSC
history
discussions
growth
dred
scope
Conference
preceding
steady
its
and
of an evolving
can be seen in the
employs
The
WSC
character,
characteristics
evolution
Press.
OF
find sac-
future such
to enlarge
Crain
24
Character
of the
et al.
that
Conference
the
of this The
character
is the
of WSC
constancy
ference
spirit
hand,
and
the
ship
has
five
years.
breeds
changed
is always
because
of the
the
and
WSC’S tion
greatest
of WSC
lution
vigorous
of the
debate
next
the
dors
that
step
evo-
conference.
Perhaps
the
most
fostered
important
has
by the
been
have
staff.
paid
burden,
since
rently
has
Recently
volunteers
approximately
the WSC
the details signs,
registration,
the decisions the
etc.
have
hundred
excur-
contracted
with many
such as hotel
of ne-
badges,
volunteers
operation
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are unlikely
array.
cessors
question
to the
to
architectures some
central
technology.
even
is difficult
tures
and
27
Years
of an actual
For simulation,
the
calculations,
passing.
use this allel
graphics
Twenty-Five
on
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results
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strategies)
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excitement
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of an interactive implies
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Today,
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Crain
28
acting
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tion,
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simulation,
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write
use,
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29
simulations.
itates
for
software
to
do
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tion
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“too what
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Crain
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With Analysis With
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Simulation Extensive that
Environments future
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software user
developments will
face
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mean of tools
Celebrating
Twenty-Five
and techniques. Somehow all this development will need an environment that permits the user to identify and use the appropriate tool and to switch easily between tools. The platform for providing these facilities may be the simulation environment. The simulation environment plays exactly same role that an operating system plays in managing the software subsystems of a computer. The simulation environment manages resources and provides the means for users to navigate among them. All simulation users now recognize the importance of the graphical user interface in an operating system and the direct application of such a graphical user interface to simulation environments. Furthermore, it is easy to see how new developments in operating systems have direct consequences for the simulation environment. Environments in the future will be visual, interactive, and intelligent; in addition, they will work with a wide variety of hardware and software resources. It is not hard to conceive of a simulation environment that incorporates sound, video, and a host of other sensory equipment for understanding systems through simulation. Although a universal simulation environment might be a laudable goal, it is unlikely to happen in the near future. What is more likely is that interoperability will be addressed. Interoperability is in the best interest of the software vendors. A universal simulation environment is not.
Future of Simulation
Applications
In a peaceful world, economic conflict and cooperation surfaces as a prominent concern, as individuals and nations attempt to amass economic security, instead of military security, for themselves and their communities. There is now global competition on a level never before witnessed. The impact of this fundamental shift in the relationships among communities is not well understood, and it is the subject of keen debate and discussion. Simulation will undoubtedly find a role as people try to find ways to develop an advantage in the production of goods and services. Effective production seems to center on the quality of products and services, the cost of those products and services, and the timeliness of their production. The number of simulation applications dealing with these topics should increase. On the other hand, the role of competition may have a negative side in that there may be less sharing of information in an effort to of maintain a competitive advantage. The intensity competition among North American vendors of simulation products has increased greatly. Non-American vendors of simulation products will join in the pursuit of market share in the near future. The market may
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shift to the European Economic Community, where there is evolving perhaps the largest base of simulation users and software developers. Because simulation users are often closely allied with individual vendors, vendor loyalty may become an even more important tool; and vendors also may opt out of disclosure of tools and techniques. In addition to problems involving competitiveness, there remain world-class problems. These would include the environment, poverty, overpopulation, disease, health care, education, and ethnic conflict. All these are problem areas for anyone in any place and provide significant opportunity for the simulation community at large. CONCLUSION Suppose that all computing-technology restrictions were totally eliminated. Suppose simulations could be represented, executed, and presented in a perfectly convenient and user-friendly way. If we overcame all the technical problems of simulation, what would be left? The answer is that people have always, and will always, pose the ultimate limits to our use of simulation. The grandest challenge of all is the development of human potential. Although technical problems are unlikely to be totally resolved, it is certain that the imagination and insights that people have will never be replaced. People and their interaction with simulation will offer the continual challenge. How can the users of simulation be taught, shown, and urged to develop their skills so that simulation is used ethically and appropriately in solving problems that concern us individually and as groups? Somehow the packaging of simulation technology for use by the less sophisticated users must contain the appropriate safety nets. The challenge is to make things sufficiently easy to use without encountering the dark side of simulation misuse. Overenthusiastic marketing tends to oversell the technology, and it is too easy to perpetrate a cruel hoax on the naive user. Much of the simulation advertising tends to pander increasingly to that end, resulting in disillusionment, misuse, and missed opportunity. Simulation problems have grown so much in complexity and scope that collaboration in solving problems offers the best hope. Software vendors and research. methodologists cannot function separately. Software needs methodology, if it is to address problems of fundamental importance. Receareh need~ em. venient access to technology, since methodology alone is sterile and pointless. Users need simulation that employs the finest methods within the best software to solve real problems. Perhaps the most valuable
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contribution of the Winter Simulation Conference is that it is a meeting place to bring these different interests together. AUTHOR
BIOGRAPHIES
ROBERT C. CRAIN has been with Wolverine Software Corporation since 1981. He received a B.S. in political science from Ari~ona State University in 1971, and an M.A. in political science from the Ohio State University in 1975. Among his many Wolverine responsibilities is that of lead software developer for all PC and workstation implementations of GPSS/H. Mr. Crain is a member of IEEE/CS, SIGSIM, and ACM. He served as Business Chair of the 1986 Winter Simulation Conference and is General Chair of the 1992 Winter Simulation Conference.
fessor Schriber regularly teaches both introductory and advanced industrial short-courses on GPSS/Hbased modeling and has consulted with such organizations as Exxon, General Motors, Monsanb Ford) ITT, Occidental Petroleum, and CPC International in problem-solving and teaching capacities. In the area of professional service, he has been a National ACM Lecturer, has cochaired the National ACM Lectureship Series, has served on the Board of Directors of the Winter Simulation Conference for ten years (chairing the Board for two of these years), and has served as Program Chair and Proceedings Coeditor for the 1976 Bicentennial Winter Simulation Conference. A Fellow of the Decision Sciences Institute and a former Visiting Scholar at Stanford University and the Swiss Federal Technical University in Zurich, Professor Schriber is currently an Associate Editor for the International
JOSEPH M. SUSSMAN is the JR East Professor and Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He has been active in the field of systems analysis and simulation applications and methodologies as applied to transportation for many years, focusing in the areas of rail, freight, and intelligent vehicle highway systems. He has worked with a number of transportation organizations, government agencies, and commissions in the U.S. and abroad; and as the first Distinguished University Scholar at IVHS America, he has helped structure a national program in this new area. Professor Sussman was the Program Chair of the 1971 Winter Simulation Conference, and he was the General Chair of the 1973 Winter Simulation Conference. He has authored many publications, has lectured extensively in the U.S. and abroad, and has served as the Head of the Department of Civil Engineering and as the Director of the Center for Transportation Studies at MIT. THOMAS J. SCHRIBER is Professor and Chair of the Department of Computer and Information Systems in the Graduate School of Business, The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan. He holds B.S. (University of Notre Dame), M. S.E., M. A., and Ph. D. (University of Michigan) degrees. Professor Schriber’s principal area of interest is simulation modeling of discrete-event systems, including modeling algorithms, graphical modeling interfaces, the analysis of input to and output from simulation models, the use of animation in simulation, and the applications of simulation. He has authored or coauthored several-dozen articles and has authored or edited eleven books, among them An Introduction (Wiley 1991). Proto Simulation Using GPSS/H
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professional affiliations IIE, ORSA, SCS, and TIMS. tems.
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JAMES O. HENRIKSEN is the President of Wolverine Software Corporation, located in Annandale, Virginia (a suburb of Washington, DC). He is a frequent contributor to the literature on simulation and has presented many papers at the Winter Simulation Conference. His first WSC paper, entitled ‘Building a Better GPSS: a 3:1 Performance Enhancement ,“ was presented at the unofficial 1975 Winter Simulation Conference. This paper detailed early results in the development of the world’s first of (and still the only) compiled-code implementation GPSS. In the years since 1975, he has contributed papers dealing with event-list algorithms, simulation of conveyor systems, and modeling methodology. A number of the methodology papers presented examples for which the “obvious” solutions encouraged by the world view of the simulation software used could be significantly improved upon with some additional thought . Mr. Henriksen served as the Business Chair of the 1981 Winter Simulation Conference and as the General Chair of the 1986 Winter Simulation Conference, and he has served on the Raard af Directors of the conference as the ACM/SIGSIM representative. From 1980 to 1985, Mr. Henriksen served as an Adjunct Professor in the Computer Science Department of the Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, where he taught courses in simulation and compiler construction at the university’s Northern Virginia Graduate Center. STEPHEN D. ROBERTS is Professor and Head of the Department of Industrial Engineering at North
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Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina. He received B. S.I.E., M. S.I.E., and Ph.D. degrees at Purdue University. He has held previoas academic and research positions at the University of Florida, Indiana University, Purdue University, and the Regenstrief Institute. His principal interests are in simulation modeling, simulation-language design, simulation-software engineering, and the application of simulation to medical-care problems. He is the developer of the INSIGHT simulation language and a frequent contributor to the simulation literature. He on is the Modeling Area Editor for the l’hnwactions an Associate EdModeling and Computer Simulation, Science, and a former Associate itor for Management He has served as SecretaryEditor for Simulation. Treasurer and Chair of ACM/SIGSIM. In addition to being a presenter, session chair, and track coordinator at various Winter Simulation Conferences, he was Proceedings Editor for WSC ’83, Associate Program Chair for WSC ’85, and Program Chair for WSC ’86. He is the TIMS/College on Simulation representative to the Board of Directors of the Winter Simulation Conference. He has been the Secretary and ViceChair of the WSC Board and was Board Liaison for WSC ’90. He is currently Chair of the WSC Board of Directors.
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