Urban Transport XXIII

8UEDQ7UDQVSRUW;;,,,

69

7+(%$55,(56,17+(,03/(0(17$7,21352&(66 $1'7+(23(5$7,212),1129$7,9(85%$1 75$1632577+(&$6(2)%57-$.$57$ 6@ 0RUHRYHU WKH WUDIILF FRQJHVWLRQLQ-DNDUWDLVVWLOOGHWHULRUDWLQJZKLOHWKHJURZWKVRISULYDWHYHKLFOHVZHUHDOPRVW SHUFHQW SHU \HDU GXULQJ WKLV SHULRG >@ %57 -DNDUWD KDV GLIILFXOW\ DWWUDFWLQJ PRUH SDVVHQJHU¶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

WIT Transactions on The Built Environment, Vol 176, © 2017 WIT Press www.witpress.com, ISSN 1746-4498 (on-line)

8UEDQ7UDQVSRUW;;,,,

71

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¶ SHUFHSWLRQ )LIWK WKH LQIUDVWUXFWXUH DQG PDLQWHQDQFH IDFWRUV WKDW UHTXLUHG WR VXSSRUW WKH RSHUDWLRQ RI WKH QHZ


72 8UEDQ7UDQVSRUW;;,,,

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¶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±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¶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


8UEDQ7UDQVSRUW;;,,,

73

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³EX\WKHVHUYLFH´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±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±$0 7KHDPRXQWRI%57-DNDUWDIDUHVXEVLG\ LVDOPRVWSHUFHQWRIWKHDFWXDOFRVWLQ7KHIODWIDUHV\VWHPDWWUDFWVORQJGLVWDQFH



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¶VSHUIRUPDQFHWKHGHFOLQLQJQXPEHU RISDVVHQJHUVLVDOVRFDXVHGE\WKHKLJKLQFUHDVHLQIXHOVXEVLG\LQDQGZKLFK FRXQWHG XS WR RI ,QGRQHVLDQ *'3 >@ 7KLV IXHO VXEVLG\ LV QRW VXIILFLHQWO\ ZHOO DOORFDWHGWRDFFXUDWHO\FRPSHQVDWHWKHSRRUKRXVHKROGWKHPLGGOHWRKLJKLQFRPHKRXVHKROG DOVR JHWV WKH EHQHILW RI WKH FKHDS RLO SULFH %HVLGHV WKDW WKHUH LV QR SROLF\ WR FRQWURO WKH SULYDWH YHKLFOH RZQHUVKLS ZKLFK LV FXUUHQWO\ YHU\ FKHDS DQG HDVLO\ REWDLQHG 0RUHRYHU JRYHUQPHQW¶VSROLF\RIORZFRVWJUHHQFDULQPDGHWKHRZQLQJFDUPRUHDWWUDFWLYHWKDQ ULGLQJWKH%57-DNDUWD ,QWHUPVRISURGXFWLYLW\LWVWDJQDWHVGHFUHDVLQJVLQFHXSZDUGVGHVSLWHLWVORZHUIDUH DW,'5SHURQHZD\WULSIURP±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



%57OHQJWKNP 3URGXFWLYLW\SD[NPLQ 'DLO\SDWURQDJH

)LJXUH3DVVHQJHUGHPDQGSURGXFWLYLW\DQG%57OHQJWKIURP±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¶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


8UEDQ7UDQVSRUW;;,,,

77

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³ULSSOHHIIHFW´ZKHUHRQHV\VWHPWULJJHUVWKHHVWDEOLVKPHQWRIPRUHV\VWHPVZLWKLQD QDWLRQ DV DQRWKHU PHFKDQLVP RI UDLVLQJ GLIIXVLRQ )RU H[DPSOH DIWHU WKH %57 V\VWHP LQ -DNDUWDZDVRSHQHGLQWKHORZTXDOLW\LPLWDWRUV\VWHPVSDUNHGLQ,QGRQHVLD¶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¶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



$QRWKHUSROLF\WKDWKDPSHUVWKHLPSURYHPHQWRIXUEDQSXEOLFWUDQVSRUWLQ,QGRQHVLDLVWKH IXHOVXEVLG\$VORQJDVWKHXVHRISULYDWHYHKLFOHLVFKHDSHUDQGPRUHIOH[LEOHWKDQWKHSXEOLF WUDQVSRUW WKHUH ZLOO EH QR FKDQJH RI SHRSOH¶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

5()(5(1&(6 ,QVWLWXWHIRU *OREDO(QYLURQPHQWDO 6WUDWHJLHV ,*(6 )LQDO UHSRUW VWXG\RQ FDUERQ JRYHUQDQFHDWVXEQDWLRQDOOHYHOLQ,QGRQHVLDFDVHVWXG\-DNDUWD3URYLQFH 7KH:RUOG%DQN*URXS7KHVRIWVLGHRI%57/HVVRQVIURPILYHGHYHORSLQJFLWLHV :DVKLQJWRQ'& 0LQLVWU\RI7UDQVSRUW5HSXEOLFRI,QGRQHVLD-DERGHWDEHN7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ0DVWHU3ODQ @ >@ >@ >@ >@ >@ >@ >@ >@ >@

>@ >@ >@ >@ >@ >@ >@

79

6D\HJ33RVWHYDOXDWLRQRIDGHFDGHRIH[SHULHQFHZLWK-DNDUWD¶V7UDQVMDNDUWD%XV 5DSLG7UDQVLW6\VWHPProceedings Australasian Transport Research Forum 0LQLVWU\ RI 7UDQVSRUW 5HSXEOLF RI ,QGRQHVLD /DQG 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ LQ )LJXUHV -DNDUWD 'DONPDQQ+)LQDO5HSRUW&DVHVWXG\RIDWUDQVSRUW0591$0$7'00HDVXUHV LQ-DNDUWD,QGRQHVLD$SSOLFDELOLW\RI3RVW&OLPDWH,QVWUXPHQWVWRWKH7UDQVSRUW 6HFWRU&,76 3URMHFW 6HQJHUV) 5DYHQ%7RZDUGDVSDWLDOSHUVSHFWLYHRQQLFKHGHYHORSPHQW7KHFDVH RIEXVUDSLGWUDQVLWEnvironmental Innovation and Societal Transition SS± 'XJDQG60HWDO/HVVRQIURPWKHVSUHDGRIEXVUDSLGWUDQVLWLQ/DWLQ$PHULFD Journal of Cleaner Production SS± .HPS56FKRW- +RRJPD55HJLPHVKLIWVWRVXVWDLQDELOLW\WKURXJKSURFHVVHV RIQLFKHIRUPDWLRQ7KHDSSURDFKRIVWUDWHJLFQLFKHPDQDJHPHQWTechnology Analysis & Strategic Management SS± 5DYHQ 5 YDQ GHQ %RVFK 6 :HWHULQJV 5 7UDQVLWLRQV DQG VWUDWHJLF QLFKH PDQDJHPHQW WRZDUGV D FRPSHWHQFH NLW IRU SUDFWLWLRQHUV Int. J. Technology Management SS± +RRJPD 5 .HPS 5 6FKRW - 7UXIIHU % Experimenting for Sustainable Transport: The approach of Strategic Niche Management 6SRQ 3UHVV 1HZ @ +LGDOJR' &DUULJDQ$/HVVRQVOHDUQHGIURPPDMRUEXVLPSURYHPHQWVLQ/DWLQ $PHULFD DQG $VLD EMBARQ: Modernizing Public Transport, :RUOG 5HVRXUFHV ,QVWLWXWH >@ (UQVW-,QLWLDWLQJ%XV5DSLG7UDQVLWLQ-DNDUWD,QGRQHVLDTransportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research BoardSS± >@ (PEHUJHU*3IDIIHQELFKOHU3-DHQVLULVDN6 7LPPV3,GHDOGHFLVLRQPDNLQJ SURFHVVHVIRUWUDQVSRUWSODQQLQJ$FRPSDULVRQEHWZHHQ(XURSHDQG6RXWK(DVW$VLD Transport PolicySS± >@ :ULJKW / +RRN : Bus Rapid Transit: Planning Guide ,QVWLWXWH IRU 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ 'HYHORSPHQW3ROLF\,7'3 >@ 6D\HJ3 /XELV+$7HUPLQDO(YDOXDWLRQRIWKH81(3*()3URMHFW%XV5DSLG 7UDQVLWDQG3HGHVWULDQ,PSURYHPHQWV3URMHFWLQ-DNDUWD >@ -DSDQ,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RUSRUDWLRQ$JHQF\-,&$ 3URMHFWIRUWKH6WXG\RQ-DERGHWDEHN 3XEOLF 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ 3ROLF\ ,PSOHPHQWDWLRQ 6WUDWHJ\ LQ WKH 5HSXEOLF RI ,QGRQHVLD -$37UD3,6 >@ .RJGHQNR 1 Successfulness of Bus Rapid Transit Systems in Asia: Ex-post Evaluation8QLYHUVLW\RI*URQLQJHQ >@ 6WDWLVWLFV,QGRQHVLD%36 6WDWLVWLFDO@ :RUOG %DQN -DNDUWD ± 8UEDQ FKDOOHQJHV LQ D FKDQJLQJ FOLPDWH :DVKLQJWRQ '& :RUOG%DQN >@ 6XVLOR@ 6WHHU'DYLHV*OHDYH6'* -DNDUWDIHHGHUEXVVWXG\ >@ &DUULJDQ $ HW DO 6RFLDO(QYLURQPHQWDO DQG (FRQRPLF ,PSDFWV RI %57 6\VWHPV :RUOG5HVRXUFHV,QVWLWXWH >@ :ULJKW / Sustainable Transport: A Sourcebook for Policy-makers in Developing Cities. Module 3b: Bus Rapid Transit. 'HXWVFKH *HVHOOVFKDIW IU 7HFKQLVFKH =XVDPPHQDUEHLW*7= >@ -RHZRQR7%7DULJDQ$.0 6XVLOR@ 6HQJHUV) 5DYHQ%7RZDUGDVSDWLDOSHUVSHFWLYHRQQLFKHGHYHORSPHQW7KHFDVH RI%XV5DSLG7UDQVLWEnvironmental Innovation and Societal TransitionsSS± >@ 6WDWLVWLFV,QGRQHVLD%36 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ6WDWLVWLFVRI'.,-DNDUWD >@ 0DLPXQDK 6 .DQHNR 6 MRT as Climate Policy in Urban Transportation. Climate Change Policies and Challenges in Indonesia6SULQJHU-DSDQSS±
