Obama has 16 point lead on health issues (+6) ... Obama. Romney. 35%. 36%. 13%. 15%. The American. October 2012 45 ....
The American
US ELECTION 2012 With a month to go to November 6th, political analyst Sir Robert Worcester is lengthening his odds against Romney/Ryan
T
he first senior politician I conducted polls for, over 40 years ago, was British Prime Minister Harold Wilson, who said “A week is a long time in politics” – a cliché today, but so often true. Will it be this November? The truth is it hasn’t been so far in this seemingly interminable election. For most of the year the national polls were static, around Obama 46%/Romney 46%. Now it appears that the election is sliding away from the Romney/ Ryan team, and the key states are lining up, if narrowly, for President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden. In Britain, we have ‘long’ elections and ‘short’ elections, not so long as in the USA, and really short compared to the distance between America’s Labor Day, the first Monday in September, and Election Day, the first Tuesday in November. That's two months, give or take a day or two, twice as long as the usual three-four weeks in the UK. PHOTO: MALLORY BENEDICT FOR PBS
Latest forecasts run from 3:1 to 9:1 odds that a second term for Obama looks likely, depending on which pundit you back. I've lifted my forecast of 3:1 a month or six weeks ago to 5:1 – Sir Robert Worcester
44 October 2012
The American Voting Intention among Likely Voters Elections in the States start in earnest the year before, with the undeclared candidates just happening to visit Iowa to raise their profile and tick that box (Iowa’s caucus is the first). Then off to New Hampshire, the first primary election. These forays are much commented on by the journos and pundits, raise the profiles of the candidates, and most importantly raise (or not) the money. No fewer than 52 Republican candidates for president filed their candidacy in one state or another, and the dozen or so ‘serious’ candidates in more or less all the 50 states and elsewhere. The Republicans, unlike the Democrats, do not yet recognise Republicans Abroad in their nomination process. Democrats Abroad have had voting delegates and primary balloting since the Carter convention in 1976. Eleven different Republican candidates led the popularity polls during the long primary campaign at one time or another before Romney finally clinched the deal. The highlights of this past month have been the nominating
% 50
Reuters / Ipsos Convention Tracker Obama 46%
Obama 47%
+4
45
+4
40
42% Obama
Day 1
http://spotlight.ipsos-na.com/index.php/elections
BASE: 1,000+ INTERVIEWS WITH REGISTERED VOTERS AGE 18 AND OVER CARRIED OUT ONLINE AS PART OF FOUR-DAY ROLLING POLL. DATA WEIGHTED TO NATIONAL POPULATION PROFILE.
conventions. No surprises, as even the Vice Presidential running mates were known before the conventions began. The Republicans met August 27-30; the Democrats September 4-6. Seems a long time ago. Our friends at Ipsos, chiefly Cliff Young and Julia Clark, tracked daily during the conventions. Barack Obama began the convention season with a four-point lead; the Republican Convention began in a hole four points deep, climbed out of it to lead at one point only to lose
Obama has 16 point lead on health issues (+6) Q. ”In your opinion, which candidate for President has the better policy or approach to... Healthcare?” ... the US Economy” None
None
15%
14% DK
44%
14%
Obama
43% Obama
DK
36%
Obama
13%
28%
Romney
BASE: 1,231 AMERICAN REGISTERED VOTERS, SEPT. 9-13 2012, ONLINE
35%
Romney
SOURCE: REUTERS/IPSOS
the ‘Big Mo’ to Obama when the Democratic convention began and his one-two-three (and a half - his Veep, Joe Biden, didn’t get much of a look in). The big hitters, Michele Obama, Bill Clinton and then the President himself one by one wowed the 5,000+ delegates, the 10,000+ media in the hall and millions on the television. (See graph) The continuing stream of national polls shows the gap widening even further - Ipsos says by six points while CBS/NYT and Gallup are steady at three points. The two key issues are the state of the economy in the United States, and health care, following the passage of the Obama healthcare bill. On healthcare, Obama, in just a week, has widened a ten point lead to 16, a three point swing, and on the US economy has overtaken a Romney lead to a point ahead. With an increasing lead in the country as a whole, the key factor when it comes to the election of an American president is how he’s doing in the half dozen key states, and only in North Carolina is Romney looking safe. For RealClearPolitics' reading of the rest, Obama has
October 2012 45
The American
a lead, even in Wisconsin, the home state of Paul Ryan (the Republican Vice-Presidential candidate chosen by Romney as his running mate). In marginal Virginia (where RCP calls it, when pushed, for Obama for President) in the vital race for Senate RCP calls it for Republican Governor Allen, which would swing the Senate 270 TO WIN
The Battle for the White House (Including Toss Up States) Dem: 247; Toss-Ups: 100; Rep: 191 WA 12 OR 7
MT 3 ID 4
NV 6 CA 55
AZ 11
MN 10
SD 3
WY 3 UT 6
VT 3
ND 3
IA 6
NE 5
CO 9
WI 10
KS 6
IN 11
PA 20 WV 5
MS 6
AL 9
GA 16
RI 4
NJ 14 DE 3 MD 10
FL 29
DC 3
The Battle for the White House (No Toss Up States) Dem: 332; Rep: 206. WA 12 OR 7
ID 4 NV 6
CA 55
MT 3
AZ 11
CO 9
KS 6
TX 38
NH 4
IL 20
IN 11
OH 18 KY 8
PA 20 WV 5
LA 8
MS 6
AL 9
Obama/Biden Romney/Ryan
VA 13 NC 15
TN 11 AR 6
ME 4 NY 29
MI 16
MO 10 OK 7
NM 5
HI 4
WI 10
IA 6
NE 5
AK 3
46 October 2012
MN 10
SD 3
WY 3 UT 6
VT 3
ND 3
GA 16
SC 9
MA 11 RI 4 CT 7 NJ 14 DE 3
FL 29
PHOTO: JARED SOARES FOR PBS NEWSHOUR
CT 7
SC 9
Romney/Ryan Solid Likely Leans Toss up
Obama/Biden Solid Likely Leans
MA 11
VA 13 NC 15
TN 11
LA 8
HI 4
OH 18 KY 8
AR 6
TX 38
AK 3
IL 20
ME 4 NY 29
MI 16
MO 10 OK 7
NM 5
NH 4
MD 10 DC 3
to a 51/49 Republican majority. The latest poll in Virginia by Rasmussen, which usually looks slightly biased to Republicans, has former Democratic National Chairman Tim Kaine three points ahead. If Kaine wins, then the Senate is split evenly, 50 to 50. Should that occur, who sits as the presiding officer of the Senate of the United States? Vice President Joe Biden casts the deciding vote in the case of a dead heat, and we know who he’d vote for. But there is a wild card that could change the game, a former governor running for the Senate is an independent in Maine, Angus King. So if the balance is 50/49 Republican, he could vote Republican to give the GOP a clear majority. H Sir Robert Worcester is the founder of MORI. Follow him for updates on Twitter: @RobertWorcester
