US Trade Overview, 2013 - International Trade Administration

U.S. Trade Overview, 2013 Stephanie Han & Natalie Soroka Trade and Economic Analysis Industry and Analysis Department of Commerce International Trade Administration

October 2014

Trade: A Vital Part of the Global Economy

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-1

2002

4

2001

2.7%

U.S. export volume growth, 2013

Percentage Change in World Trade and Output

14

2000

World export volume growth in 2013

Percentage Change from Previous Year

3.1%

• Globally, trade accounts for more than 60% of gross domestic product (GDP). • Trade volume growth typically outpaces real GDP growth, and is expected to do so over the next five years.

-6 -11 Forecast

Change in GDP (constant prices)

Change in Total Trade Volume

• The U.S. is the largest exporter in the world for commercial services and the second largest for merchandise. Top Exporters, 2013

China United States Germany Japan United Kingdom France Netherlands Korea, Republic of Hong Kong, China Italy Russian Federation Belgium Canada Singapore India

Merchandise Exports Commercial Services Exports

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

Billions of current US dollars

10%

U.S. Share of world exports in 2013 (by value)

• While below the world average, U.S. export growth (by volume) exceeded the average for advanced economies in 2013 and is expected to continue to do so in 2014. Future world exports are expected to be largely driven by growth in emerging economies.

7%

Change in Real GDP

7%

6%

6%

5%

5%

4%

4%

3%

3%

2%

2%

1%

1%

0%

0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook; WTO International Trade Statistics; Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce

Change in Export Volume

forecast Emerging and developing economies

Department of Commerce

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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 United States Advanced economies

International Trade Administration

U.S. Trade in 2013

96%

Total U.S. export growth 2004‒2013

• Total trade (exports and imports) accounted for 30% of U.S. GDP in 2013. • U.S. exports totaled a record $2.3 trillion in 2013, up 2.9% from 2012 and 44.0% from 2009 when the global crisis caused a worldwide drop in exports. • In 2013, exports were up $63.7 billion from 2012, with goods exports increasing by $31.1 billion and services exports increasing by $32.6 billion. • The U.S. trade balance improved by $61.2 billion from 2012 to 2013, driven by the increase in both goods and services exports and a drop in goods imports. U.S. Trade in Goods and Services

$2,757

3,000

$2,280

2,500

1,500 Total Imports 1,000 Total Exports

500 -$476

Trade Balance

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

Recession

Billions of US dollars

2,000

0 -500 -1,000

• Historically, exports have grown as a share of U.S. GDP. However, in 2013 exports contributed to 13.5% of U.S. GDP, a slight drop from 2012. That year, increased domestic investment and reduced goods imports played a greater role in U.S. GDP. U.S. Exports as a Share of GDP 13.6

$5 trillion Total value of U.S. trade in 2013

Share of GDP (Percentage)

12 10

13.6

13.5

12.4 11.0

8 6 4 2 0 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Percentage Point Change in Share

14

1

0.5

Change in Share of U.S. GDP 2012-2013 Private domestic investment 0.5

Imports 0.6

0

-0.5

Personal consumption -0.1

Exports -0.1

Government -0.9

-1

• Trade in goods drives the majority of both exporting and importing activity. Exports

Imports Services 17%

Services 30% Goods 70%

Source: Census Bureau; Bureau of Economic Analysis


Goods 83%

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Trade Supports U.S. Jobs • Exports of goods and services supported 11.3 million jobs in 2013, an increase of 1.6 million jobs since 2009. • In 2013, every billion dollars of U.S. exports supported nearly 5,600 jobs. Millions of Jobs Supported by Exports

12

1.6 million more jobs supported by exports since 2009

11.1

10.9

10.2

9.7

10

11.3

8 Services Goods

6 4 2 0 2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

• Nearly 305,000 U.S. companies exported goods in 2012 (latest data available), a recordhigh. Small- and medium-sized exporters (SMEs) accounted for 98% of exporters and 33% of the known export value. 2012 Number of Exporters, by Company Size

2012 Export Value, by Company Size

SMEs 297,995

SMEs 449,400 Large Companies 930,283

98% U.S. exporters that employ fewer than 500 employees

Large Companies 6,872

• 16% of SMEs and 55% of large company exporters in 2012 exported to five or more countries. • Companies that exported to five or more countries accounted for 88.6% of the known export value. 2012 Number of Partner Countries, by Share of Exporting Companies SMEs Large Companies 0% 1 market

2-4 markets

20%

40%

5-9 markets

10-24 markets

60%

80%

25-49 markets

100% 50+ markets

2012 Number of Partner Countries, by Share of Known Export Value SMEs Large Companies Source: Census Bureau; Rasmussen and Johnson, 2013, “Jobs Supported by Exports 2013: An Update.” U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration

0%

20%


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40%

60%

80%


100%

Merchandise Trade Highlights

Growth in real U.S. goods exports since 2009

U.S. Merchandise Trade

Goods Imports Goods Exports Goods Trade Balance

2,500 Billions of current US dollars

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

32.4%

• Total U.S. goods trade was $3.8 trillion in 2013, up 47% from 2009. • Manufactured goods accounted for 87% of U.S. merchandise exports and 81% of merchandise imports in 2013. • Goods imports fell by nearly $8 billion in 2013, the first time since 2009. Meanwhile, goods exports rose by $33.9 billion, resulting in a $41.9 billion improvement in the trade deficit.

2,000

$2.27 trillion

1,500

$1.58 trillion

1,000 500 0 2004

-500

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013 -$689 billion

-1,000

• Transportation equipment was the dominant export category in 2013, totaling $258.3 billion, or 16.3% of total goods exports. • Transportation also showed the largest dollar growth among goods exports in 2013, increasing by $16.9 billion or 7.0% from 2012. Merchandise Exports, 2013 Merchandise Imports, 2013 Computer & Electronic Products 15.5%

Transportation Equipment 16.3% Computer & Electronic Products 13.0%

All Other Merchandise 41.0%

Transportation Equipment 14.7%

All Other Merchandise 42.1%

Chemicals 12.6% Petroleum & Coal Products 7.6%

Chemicals 8.6%

• Petroleum imports fell again in 2013, with the quantity of crude oil imports reaching the lowest point since 1995. The average annual price of crude oil also fell in 2013, dropping by 4.0% to $96.94. • In 2013, the quantity of crude oil produced within the United States exceeded that of imports for the first time since the early 1990s. 12,000

U.S. Imports of Crude Oil (EIA)

$100 7,893 $80 7,759 $60

8,000 6,000

U.S. Domestic Production of Crude Oil (EIA) Unit Price of Crude Imports (Census)

4,000 2,000

$40 $20


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2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

$0 1995

1994

1991

1990

1993

Recession 1992

Thousands of Barrels a Day

$120 10,000

0

Source: Census Bureau; Energy Information Administration

Machinery, Except Electrical 6.5%

Machinery 9.5%


Unit Price (dollars per barrel)

Exports of petroleum products were a recordhigh in 2013

Oil & Gas 12.6%

Services Trade Highlights • Services exports hit a record high in 2013, up 5% from 2012 and 34% from 2009. • Despite a slight decline in 2009, services exports have risen faster than services imports each year, leading to a growing services trade surplus. • Services accounted for 30% of total U.S. exports in 2013. $700

$687.4

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Services trade surplus hit a record high in 2013


$600 Services Exports

$500

Services Imports

$400

$462.1

Balance

$300 $200

$225.3

$100 $0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013

• Travel was the largest services export in 2013, accounting for 25% of overall services exports. • Travel also accounted for the largest share of U.S. services imports in 2013. • From 2012 to 2013, financial services showed the fastest growth, with exports increasing by 9.7%. 180

Services Exports, 2013 $173.1

160


The U.S. has held a services trade surplus since 1971

120 100 80

Africa

140

$129.2 $123.4

Other Asia & Pacific $87.3

$84.1

Korea China

60 40 20

Japan

$33.4 $24.5

$16.3 $16.1

0

EU

Asia & Pacific

Europe

Western Hemisphere

Other Western Hemisphere

Other Europe Canada

Brazil Mexico

• U.S. services exports largely go to markets in Europe, followed by Asia and Latin America. • Since 2009, services exports have grown by 121% to China, 40% to NAFTA partners, and 18% to EU countries. Source: Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis


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Top Export Markets in 2013

More than one-third of U.S. merchandise exports went to Canada & Mexico

Top Export Markets and Growth, 2013

15% Percentage Change, 2012-2013

1/3

• U.S. exports span more than 230 destinations, with Canada and Mexico accounting for more than one-third of the total. • Canada was the top export market in 2013, at $301.6 billion. Canada was followed by Mexico, ($226.1 billion), China ($121.7 billion), Japan ($65.2 billion), and Germany ($47.4 billion). • Among top markets, China showed the highest dollar growth compared to 2012, up over $11 billion.

10%

Canada $301.6

China $121.7

Mexico $226.1

Brazil $44.1

5%

Singapore $30.7

0% -5% -10% -15% -20%

Japan $65.2

EU-28 $262.2

United Arab Emirates $24.4 Taiwan $25.5

Hong Kong $42.3

Korea $41.7

Saudi Arabia $19.0

Switzerland $26.8

India $21.8

Australia $26.1

Circle size indicates 2013 export value Dollar values shown in billions of US dollars

• Of markets receiving more than $500 million in U.S. goods exports, potential TPP partner Brunei showed the fastest growth in 2013 by percent change, up 254 percent compared to the previous year. • While a smaller share of overall trade, U.S. goods exports to markets in South and Central America have shown the most rapid growth since 2009, up nearly 77%. The trade surplus with this region was a record high in 2013.

57% U.S. export growth to Free Trade Partners 2009‒2013 Share of 2013 Goods Exports by Region 16%

2%

17% 44%

46%

FTA Partners Source: Census Bureau

NEI Markets


CAFTA-DR

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TTIP

Trans-Pacific Partnership


Source Notes Global Trade and Economy •

World Development Indicators, World Bank Released June 2013

•

IMF World Economic Outlook Released April 2014

•

WTO International Trade Statistics 2012 Released April 2014

•

National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) Tables, Bureau of Economic Analysis Released July 2014

U.S. Trade •

Foreign Trade Division, Census Bureau Released June 2014

•

National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) Tables, Bureau of Economic Analysis Released July 2014

•

“Jobs Supported by Exports 2013: An Update,” Martin Johnson and Chris Rasmussen, Office of Trade and Economic Analysis, International Trade Administration Released February 2014

•

Profile of U.S. Exporting Companies, Census Bureau Released April 2014

U.S. Merchandise Trade •


•

Energy Information Administration Released July 2014

U.S. Services Trade •


•

International Services Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis Released June 2014

U.S. Export Markets •



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Region Definitions International Trading & Economic Regions EU-28: Trans-Atlantic Trade & Investment Partnership (TTIP)

Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)

Austria

Australia

Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Partners

Brunei

Australia

Chile

Bahrain

Belgium

Malaysia

Canada

Bulgaria

New Zealand

Chile

Croatia

Peru

Colombia

Cyprus

Singapore

Costa Rica

Czech Republic

Vietnam

Dominican Republic

Denmark Estonia

El Salvador Guatemala

France

Central America-Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR)

Germany

Costa Rica

Jordan

Greece

Dominican Republic

Mexico

Hungary

El Salvador

Morocco

Ireland

Guatemala

Nicaragua

Italy

Honduras

Oman

Latvia

Nicaragua

Panama

Finland

Lithuania Luxembourg

Honduras Israel

Peru

Malta

National Export Initiative (NEI) Priority Markets

Netherlands

Brazil

Poland

China

Portugal

Colombia

Romania

India

Slovakia

Indonesia

Slovenia

Saudi Arabia

Spain

South Africa

Sweden

Turkey

United Kingdom

Vietnam


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Singapore South Korea


For More Information: U.S. Trade Statistics: • TradeStats Express – National and state-level trade data http://tse.export.gov • Jobs Supported by Exports – National and state-level detail http://www.trade.gov/mas/ian/employment • Exporter Database – Export data by company size http://tse.export.gov/edb Local Area Data: • Metropolitan Export Series – Export data by metro area http://tse.export.gov/metro • Metro Report – Reports and data on metropolitan areas http://www.trade.gov/mas/ian/metroreport • State Reports – Short statistical report for each state http://www.trade.gov/mas/ian/statereports/ Additional Reports and Information: • Reference Information – Trade Data Basics, Reference Room, and more http://www.trade.gov/mas/ian/referenceinfo • Trade Statistics – Access all statistical reports and databases http://www.trade.gov/mas/ian/tradestatistics • Trade Policy and Analysis – Home page for Trade Policy and Analysis http://www.trade.gov/mas/ian Comments and questions should be directed to: Natalie Soroka Office of Trade and Economic Analysis Trade Policy and Analysis, Industry and Analysis International Trade Administration [email protected] T 202.482.5839 Department of Commerce

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The International Trade Administration’s mission is to create prosperity by strengthening the competitiveness of U.S. industry, promoting trade and investment, and ensuring fair trade and compliance with trade laws and agreements.

T 202.482.5839 F 202.482.4614 www.trade.gov/mas/ian

October 2014

Trade and Economic Analysis Industry and Analysis 1401 Constitution Ave., NW Washington, DC 20230