32.4%. Growth in real. U.S. goods exports since 2009. 20. 04. 20. 05. 20. 06. 20 ... 2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012.
U.S. Trade Overview, 2013 Stephanie Han & Natalie Soroka Trade and Economic Analysis Industry and Analysis Department of Commerce International Trade Administration
October 2014
Trade: A Vital Part of the Global Economy
9
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
-1
2002
4
2001
2.7%
U.S. export volume growth, 2013
Percentage Change in World Trade and Output
14
2000
World export volume growth in 2013
Percentage Change from Previous Year
3.1%
• Globally, trade accounts for more than 60% of gross domestic product (GDP). • Trade volume growth typically outpaces real GDP growth, and is expected to do so over the next five years.
-6 -11 Forecast
Change in GDP (constant prices)
Change in Total Trade Volume
• The U.S. is the largest exporter in the world for commercial services and the second largest for merchandise. Top Exporters, 2013
China United States Germany Japan United Kingdom France Netherlands Korea, Republic of Hong Kong, China Italy Russian Federation Belgium Canada Singapore India
Merchandise Exports Commercial Services Exports
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
Billions of current US dollars
10%
U.S. Share of world exports in 2013 (by value)
• While below the world average, U.S. export growth (by volume) exceeded the average for advanced economies in 2013 and is expected to continue to do so in 2014. Future world exports are expected to be largely driven by growth in emerging economies.
7%
Change in Real GDP
7%
6%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
3%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
0%
0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook; WTO International Trade Statistics; Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce
Change in Export Volume
forecast Emerging and developing economies
Department of Commerce
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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 United States Advanced economies
International Trade Administration
U.S. Trade in 2013
96%
Total U.S. export growth 2004‒2013
• Total trade (exports and imports) accounted for 30% of U.S. GDP in 2013. • U.S. exports totaled a record $2.3 trillion in 2013, up 2.9% from 2012 and 44.0% from 2009 when the global crisis caused a worldwide drop in exports. • In 2013, exports were up $63.7 billion from 2012, with goods exports increasing by $31.1 billion and services exports increasing by $32.6 billion. • The U.S. trade balance improved by $61.2 billion from 2012 to 2013, driven by the increase in both goods and services exports and a drop in goods imports. U.S. Trade in Goods and Services
$2,757
3,000
$2,280
2,500
1,500 Total Imports 1,000 Total Exports
500 -$476
Trade Balance
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
Recession
Billions of US dollars
2,000
0 -500 -1,000
• Historically, exports have grown as a share of U.S. GDP. However, in 2013 exports contributed to 13.5% of U.S. GDP, a slight drop from 2012. That year, increased domestic investment and reduced goods imports played a greater role in U.S. GDP. U.S. Exports as a Share of GDP 13.6
$5 trillion Total value of U.S. trade in 2013
Share of GDP (Percentage)
12 10
13.6
13.5
12.4 11.0
8 6 4 2 0 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Percentage Point Change in Share
14
1
0.5
Change in Share of U.S. GDP 2012-2013 Private domestic investment 0.5
Imports 0.6
0
-0.5
Personal consumption -0.1
Exports -0.1
Government -0.9
-1
• Trade in goods drives the majority of both exporting and importing activity. Exports
Imports Services 17%
Services 30% Goods 70%
Source: Census Bureau; Bureau of Economic Analysis
Department of Commerce
Goods 83%
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International Trade Administration
Trade Supports U.S. Jobs • Exports of goods and services supported 11.3 million jobs in 2013, an increase of 1.6 million jobs since 2009. • In 2013, every billion dollars of U.S. exports supported nearly 5,600 jobs. Millions of Jobs Supported by Exports
12
1.6 million more jobs supported by exports since 2009
11.1
10.9
10.2
9.7
10
11.3
8 Services Goods
6 4 2 0 2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
• Nearly 305,000 U.S. companies exported goods in 2012 (latest data available), a recordhigh. Small- and medium-sized exporters (SMEs) accounted for 98% of exporters and 33% of the known export value. 2012 Number of Exporters, by Company Size
2012 Export Value, by Company Size
SMEs 297,995
SMEs 449,400 Large Companies 930,283
98% U.S. exporters that employ fewer than 500 employees
Large Companies 6,872
• 16% of SMEs and 55% of large company exporters in 2012 exported to five or more countries. • Companies that exported to five or more countries accounted for 88.6% of the known export value. 2012 Number of Partner Countries, by Share of Exporting Companies SMEs Large Companies 0% 1 market
2-4 markets
20%
40%
5-9 markets
10-24 markets
60%
80%
25-49 markets
100% 50+ markets
2012 Number of Partner Countries, by Share of Known Export Value SMEs Large Companies Source: Census Bureau; Rasmussen and Johnson, 2013, “Jobs Supported by Exports 2013: An Update.” U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration
0%
20%
Department of Commerce
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40%
60%
80%
International Trade Administration
100%
Merchandise Trade Highlights
Growth in real U.S. goods exports since 2009
U.S. Merchandise Trade
Goods Imports Goods Exports Goods Trade Balance
2,500 Billions of current US dollars
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
32.4%
• Total U.S. goods trade was $3.8 trillion in 2013, up 47% from 2009. • Manufactured goods accounted for 87% of U.S. merchandise exports and 81% of merchandise imports in 2013. • Goods imports fell by nearly $8 billion in 2013, the first time since 2009. Meanwhile, goods exports rose by $33.9 billion, resulting in a $41.9 billion improvement in the trade deficit.
2,000
$2.27 trillion
1,500
$1.58 trillion
1,000 500 0 2004
-500
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013 -$689 billion
-1,000
• Transportation equipment was the dominant export category in 2013, totaling $258.3 billion, or 16.3% of total goods exports. • Transportation also showed the largest dollar growth among goods exports in 2013, increasing by $16.9 billion or 7.0% from 2012. Merchandise Exports, 2013 Merchandise Imports, 2013 Computer & Electronic Products 15.5%
Transportation Equipment 16.3% Computer & Electronic Products 13.0%
All Other Merchandise 41.0%
Transportation Equipment 14.7%
All Other Merchandise 42.1%
Chemicals 12.6% Petroleum & Coal Products 7.6%
Chemicals 8.6%
• Petroleum imports fell again in 2013, with the quantity of crude oil imports reaching the lowest point since 1995. The average annual price of crude oil also fell in 2013, dropping by 4.0% to $96.94. • In 2013, the quantity of crude oil produced within the United States exceeded that of imports for the first time since the early 1990s. 12,000
U.S. Imports of Crude Oil (EIA)
$100 7,893 $80 7,759 $60
8,000 6,000
U.S. Domestic Production of Crude Oil (EIA) Unit Price of Crude Imports (Census)
4,000 2,000
$40 $20
Department of Commerce
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2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
$0 1995
1994
1991
1990
1993
Recession 1992
Thousands of Barrels a Day
$120 10,000
0
Source: Census Bureau; Energy Information Administration
Machinery, Except Electrical 6.5%
Machinery 9.5%
International Trade Administration
Unit Price (dollars per barrel)
Exports of petroleum products were a recordhigh in 2013
Oil & Gas 12.6%
Services Trade Highlights • Services exports hit a record high in 2013, up 5% from 2012 and 34% from 2009. • Despite a slight decline in 2009, services exports have risen faster than services imports each year, leading to a growing services trade surplus. • Services accounted for 30% of total U.S. exports in 2013. $700
$687.4
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Services trade surplus hit a record high in 2013
Billions of US dollars
$600 Services Exports
$500
Services Imports
$400
$462.1
Balance
$300 $200
$225.3
$100 $0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013
• Travel was the largest services export in 2013, accounting for 25% of overall services exports. • Travel also accounted for the largest share of U.S. services imports in 2013. • From 2012 to 2013, financial services showed the fastest growth, with exports increasing by 9.7%. 180
Services Exports, 2013 $173.1
160
Billions of US dollars
The U.S. has held a services trade surplus since 1971
120 100 80
Africa
140
$129.2 $123.4
Other Asia & Pacific $87.3
$84.1
Korea China
60 40 20
Japan
$33.4 $24.5
$16.3 $16.1
0
EU
Asia & Pacific
Europe
Western Hemisphere
Other Western Hemisphere
Other Europe Canada
Brazil Mexico
• U.S. services exports largely go to markets in Europe, followed by Asia and Latin America. • Since 2009, services exports have grown by 121% to China, 40% to NAFTA partners, and 18% to EU countries. Source: Census Bureau, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Department of Commerce
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International Trade Administration
Top Export Markets in 2013
More than one-third of U.S. merchandise exports went to Canada & Mexico
Top Export Markets and Growth, 2013
15% Percentage Change, 2012-2013
1/3
• U.S. exports span more than 230 destinations, with Canada and Mexico accounting for more than one-third of the total. • Canada was the top export market in 2013, at $301.6 billion. Canada was followed by Mexico, ($226.1 billion), China ($121.7 billion), Japan ($65.2 billion), and Germany ($47.4 billion). • Among top markets, China showed the highest dollar growth compared to 2012, up over $11 billion.
10%
Canada $301.6
China $121.7
Mexico $226.1
Brazil $44.1
5%
Singapore $30.7
0% -5% -10% -15% -20%
Japan $65.2
EU-28 $262.2
United Arab Emirates $24.4 Taiwan $25.5
Hong Kong $42.3
Korea $41.7
Saudi Arabia $19.0
Switzerland $26.8
India $21.8
Australia $26.1
Circle size indicates 2013 export value Dollar values shown in billions of US dollars
• Of markets receiving more than $500 million in U.S. goods exports, potential TPP partner Brunei showed the fastest growth in 2013 by percent change, up 254 percent compared to the previous year. • While a smaller share of overall trade, U.S. goods exports to markets in South and Central America have shown the most rapid growth since 2009, up nearly 77%. The trade surplus with this region was a record high in 2013.
57% U.S. export growth to Free Trade Partners 2009‒2013 Share of 2013 Goods Exports by Region 16%
2%
17% 44%
46%
FTA Partners Source: Census Bureau
NEI Markets
Department of Commerce
CAFTA-DR
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TTIP
Trans-Pacific Partnership
International Trade Administration
Source Notes Global Trade and Economy •
World Development Indicators, World Bank Released June 2013
•
IMF World Economic Outlook Released April 2014
•
WTO International Trade Statistics 2012 Released April 2014
•
National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) Tables, Bureau of Economic Analysis Released July 2014
U.S. Trade •
Foreign Trade Division, Census Bureau Released June 2014
•
National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) Tables, Bureau of Economic Analysis Released July 2014
•
“Jobs Supported by Exports 2013: An Update,” Martin Johnson and Chris Rasmussen, Office of Trade and Economic Analysis, International Trade Administration Released February 2014
•
Profile of U.S. Exporting Companies, Census Bureau Released April 2014
U.S. Merchandise Trade •
Foreign Trade Division, Census Bureau Released June 2014
•
Energy Information Administration Released July 2014
U.S. Services Trade •
Foreign Trade Division, Census Bureau Released June 2014
•
International Services Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis Released June 2014
U.S. Export Markets •
Foreign Trade Division, Census Bureau Released June 2014
Department of Commerce
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International Trade Administration
Region Definitions International Trading & Economic Regions EU-28: Trans-Atlantic Trade & Investment Partnership (TTIP)
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)
Austria
Australia
Free Trade Agreement (FTA) Partners
Brunei
Australia
Chile
Bahrain
Belgium
Malaysia
Canada
Bulgaria
New Zealand
Chile
Croatia
Peru
Colombia
Cyprus
Singapore
Costa Rica
Czech Republic
Vietnam
Dominican Republic
Denmark Estonia
El Salvador Guatemala
France
Central America-Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR)
Germany
Costa Rica
Jordan
Greece
Dominican Republic
Mexico
Hungary
El Salvador
Morocco
Ireland
Guatemala
Nicaragua
Italy
Honduras
Oman
Latvia
Nicaragua
Panama
Finland
Lithuania Luxembourg
Honduras Israel
Peru
Malta
National Export Initiative (NEI) Priority Markets
Netherlands
Brazil
Poland
China
Portugal
Colombia
Romania
India
Slovakia
Indonesia
Slovenia
Saudi Arabia
Spain
South Africa
Sweden
Turkey
United Kingdom
Vietnam
Department of Commerce
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Singapore South Korea
International Trade Administration
For More Information: U.S. Trade Statistics: • TradeStats Express – National and state-level trade data http://tse.export.gov • Jobs Supported by Exports – National and state-level detail http://www.trade.gov/mas/ian/employment • Exporter Database – Export data by company size http://tse.export.gov/edb Local Area Data: • Metropolitan Export Series – Export data by metro area http://tse.export.gov/metro • Metro Report – Reports and data on metropolitan areas http://www.trade.gov/mas/ian/metroreport • State Reports – Short statistical report for each state http://www.trade.gov/mas/ian/statereports/ Additional Reports and Information: • Reference Information – Trade Data Basics, Reference Room, and more http://www.trade.gov/mas/ian/referenceinfo • Trade Statistics – Access all statistical reports and databases http://www.trade.gov/mas/ian/tradestatistics • Trade Policy and Analysis – Home page for Trade Policy and Analysis http://www.trade.gov/mas/ian Comments and questions should be directed to: Natalie Soroka Office of Trade and Economic Analysis Trade Policy and Analysis, Industry and Analysis International Trade Administration
[email protected] T 202.482.5839 Department of Commerce
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International Trade Administration
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The International Trade Administration’s mission is to create prosperity by strengthening the competitiveness of U.S. industry, promoting trade and investment, and ensuring fair trade and compliance with trade laws and agreements.
T 202.482.5839 F 202.482.4614 www.trade.gov/mas/ian
October 2014
Trade and Economic Analysis Industry and Analysis 1401 Constitution Ave., NW Washington, DC 20230