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Received: 11 December 2017 Revised: 24 May 2018 Accepted: 14 October 2018 DOI: 10.1111/lre.12246
RESEARCH NOTE
Use of Delphi approach to develop indicators and preferences for restoration of balance in Dal Lake fisheries Neha W. Qureshi1
| M. Krishnan2 | Aditya K. Srinivasa3
1 Fisheries Economics, ICAR-Central Institute of Fisheries Education, Andheri(W), Mumbai, India 2
Education Systems Management Division, ICAR-National Academy of Agricultural Research Management, Hyderabad, India 3
Agricultural Economics, ICAR-Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi, India Correspondence Neha W. Qureshi, Fisheries Economics, ICAR-Central Institute of Fisheries Education, Andheri(W), Mumbai, India. Email:
[email protected]
Abstract Dal Lake, Kashmir, is the jewel in the crown of India. The present study addresses the issue of lake sustainability by conducting a two-round Delphi survey to elicit views and build consensus on the relative importance of the impacts of restoration of Dal Lake and its fisheries. The Friedman and Kendall W tests, along with post hoc Wilcoxon signed-rank test, were used to detect the presence of rank patterns and rank convergence. The general consensus among the experts was a call for the restoration of the Schizothorax fishery in Dal Lake. The survey also called for a drastic reduction in the spread and intensity of vegetable farming practices, as well as containing an inherent appeal for easing tourism-based development of Dal Lake area. The survey also supports controlled vegetable farming as a supplementary income source. KEYWORDS
Dal Lake restoration, Delphi survey, fisheries, tourism, vegetable farming
1 | I NTRO D U C TI O N
It is a sub-Himalayan urban lake, the second largest lake in the State of Jammu and Kashmir. It is part of natural wetland covering
Many social–ecological systems (SESs) comprising a common pool re-
an area of 21.1 km2, including floating gardens, with a shoreline of
source face the problem of overexploitation because it is very costly
about 15.5 km. The wetland is divided by causeways into five basins
to exclude users from subtracting resource units (Pauly, Christensen,
(Hazratbal, Bod-Dal, Gagribal, Nageen, and Brari Nambal). The pris-
Dalsgaard, Froese, & Torres, 1998; Pauly et al., 2002). Resource ap-
tine glory of the lake has been the resplendent jewel of Kashmir’s
propriation in such systems often produces benefits for the individual,
tourism trade for more than a century. During the past few years,
while all share the costs (Achard, Eva, Stibig, Mayaux, & Gallego, 2002;
however, grave concern is being voiced by people from different
Jackson et al., 2001). Thus, users have an obvious incentive to maxi-
walks of life over the deteriorating conditions of Dal Lake. It is being
mize their harvest, thereby preventing cooperation and sustainability
overexploited in many ways, with the result that the entire ecosys-
(Lloyd, 1833; Levin, 2010). There is compelling evidence, however,
tem is rapidly changing (Pandit, 1996).
from both economic experiments (Dal Bo′, 2005; Dal Bo′ & Fre′chette,
The composition of fish production in the Dal Lake has been
2011; Gintis, 2000; Janssen, Holahan, Lee, & Ostrom, 2010) and real
changing, with more carp being landed and less Schizothorax, the
system (Dolsak & Ostrom, 2003; Gutie′rrez, Hilborn, & Defeo, 2011;
local species. The local Kashmiri fish, Kashmiri gad (otherwise
Ostrom, 1990; Rustagi, Engel, & Kosfeld, 2010) that users under certain
known as Schizothorax), is rapidly disappearing from the plates of
conditions might overcome the egoistic temptation of maximizing indi-
the local residents, as well as the tourists. This has occurred be-
vidual profits. As the resource is finite, extraction by one user dimin-
cause of the accidental introduction of carp into the lakes in the
ishes the amount available to other potential users, a process known as
1950s, increased pollution attributable to tourism, floating vege-
subtractability or rivalry in consumption (Ostrom, 1977). It is difficult
table gardens and civil sewage discharges. In addition to the intro-
and costly to exclude potential users of the resource because of the re-
duction of carp, negative externalities of tourism, encroachments
source’s physical characteristics (Ostrom, Gardner, & Walker, J. 1994).
and excessive fertilization of vegetable crops on floating gardens
Dal Lake is a waterbody that has received much attention world-
leading to algal blooms have led to a consistent decline and destruc-
wide, being regarded as one of the most beautiful spots in the world.
tion of the Schizothorax breeding grounds. The problem of fisheries
Lakes & Reserv. 2018;1–9.
wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/lre © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd | 1
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QURESHI et al.
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in Kashmir lakes is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, the
War strategists (Sackman, 1975a,b). Applications of this technique
primary stakeholders (the fishers and those who derive their pri-
vary greatly, ranging from business forecasting to fisheries man-
mary income from the lake fishery) are in favour of a Schizothorax
agement (Zuboy, 1981). Walter and Reisner (1994) conducted a
fishery. On the other hand, there is an urgent need to increase total
Delphi survey of agricultural scientists, for example, to develop
fish production from the lakes to meet ever-increasing demands of
a consensus on the general definition of sustainable agriculture.
local consumers, irrespective of the species caught (Qureshi et al.,
In the field of fisheries and aquaculture, Delphi techniques have
2013). The priorities get further complicated when the objectives of
been used in different contexts and to address different issues.
Department of Fisheries (DoF) vis-à-vis the Department of Tourism
Valderrama, Sivaraman, and Krishnan (2014) used an electronic
(DoT) are considered. The fundamental issue is whether the lakes
Delphi survey to assess stakeholder responses in regard to de-
need to serve the interests of the primary stakeholders of the lake
riving the best management practices in shrimp farming in India.
(i.e., the fishers) or serve the larger interest of the state economy by
Caffey (1998, unpublished Ph.D. thesis) used Delphi to evaluate
generating increased tourism revenue.
criteria for aquaculture sustainability, with experts judging eco-
As a result of the manner in which the lake fisheries of Kashmir
nomic criteria more important than social and environmental cri-
are declining, the priority seems to be moving more towards gener-
teria for sustainability in the south-e astern USA. On similar lines,
ation of revenue from tourism, rather than conservation and devel-
Hishamunda, Poulain, and Ridler (2009) used the Delphi method
opment of lake fisheries that would enable the fishers to earn higher
to assess the constraints and opportunities faced by aquaculture
incomes in terms of returns on time invested in fishing.
sector in different regions of the world. Bunting (2008) relaxed
Accordingly, the present study was conceptualized to involve
the participation constraints by involving both experts and non-
groups of experts and obtain their consensus regarding the impacts
experts from a number of countries in a stakeholder Delphi sur-
of restoration of Dal Lake, which can help policymakers to prioritize
vey of the factors hindering adoption of horizontally integrated
their decision-making in regard to maintaining the sustainability of
aquaculture.
lake fisheries. This objective requires concerted efforts to identify
Observations for this Delphi study were obtained from a com-
experts at various levels and record their responses in order to re-
prehensive literature survey and discussion with local experts on
solve the core problem in a scientific manner. Qureshi et al. (2013,
the impacts of the restoration of Dal Lake on social, economic
unpublished thesis) had evaluated multiple stakeholder responses to fish production in major lakes of Kashmir, including both Dal and Wular lakes in Kashmir, by using a contingent valuation technique, and determining that income was the single most important and significant factor defining the willingness to pay (WTP) of eight sets of stakeholders involved in the Kashmir lake fisheries. The standard contingent valuation is a straightforward approximation of the WTP
and environmental dimensions of the lake fishery resources. This activity elicited ten statements (observations) under three heads, namely economic, social and environmental impacts of a positive and concerted action on Dal Lake restoration, in terms of deliverables for the future. It was a mix of immediate, medium-term and long-term impacts. It was thought that prioritizing the impacts will
of the primary stakeholders and, if the situation warrants, also that
enable the right policy direction and thrust. The list of all antici-
of secondary stakeholders. It is at best a spontaneous response of
pated impacts is given below in Table 2. A comprehensive list of
the stakeholders to the critical question. Neither the investigator
150 Indian and International experts from different subject mat-
nor the respondent are on the same knowledge plane. Thus, while
ter was considered for the study, consisting of scientists working
a bias in the levels of knowledge could be addressed by a session
on lake fisheries and inland fisheries from ICAR-C entral Inland
of information exchange in regard to the lead issue, the research
Fisheries Research Institute, ICAR-C entral Institute of Fisheries
would be more rigorous if a (Delphi) survey was conducted to
Education, ICAR- D irectorate of Coldwater Fisheries Research;
seek the responses of a wide range of experts across the country (Sackman, 1975a,b; Zuboy, 1981). Thus, the present study was conducted with the objective of developing indicators and preferences for restoration of balance in Dal Lake fisheries within the context of economic, environmental and social sustainability, using the Delphi approach.
International and Indian economists; and all scientists working in fisheries economics in India. Officials in the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Tourism in Kashmir, and the Lakes and Waterways Development Authority in Srinagar were also included in the survey. Two rounds were conducted online (surveymonkey. com). Respondents in Round 1 were asked to score the importance of each impact, using a 5-p oint Likert scale, with 1 meaning
2 | M ATE R I A L S A N D M E TH O DS
“strongly disagree”; 2 “disagree”; 3 “neither agree nor disagree”; 4 “agree”; and 5 meaning “strongly agree.” The respondents were
A Delphi survey, a method for systematically developing a con-
initially contacted with an introductory email providing the online
sensus opinion among experts, was used in the present study. The
survey link. As a first effort, 150 people were contacted and given
Delphi approach originated at the Rand Corporation in 1948 as a
40 days to complete Round 1. For Round 2, the impacts were
means of short-term forecasting and consensus building by Cold
ranked on a scale 1–10 based on the weighted average scores of
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QURESHI et al.
TA B L E 1 Number and range of respondent expertise across relevant areas in Delphi survey Number of respondents (%) Round 1
Round 2
Contacts
150
64
Responses
64
39
Response rate
42.60%
60.93%
the treatments have identical effects). Under this interpretation, impacts are viewed as “treatments” and each stakeholder is viewed as a “block.” The alternative hypothesis is that at least one of the treatments yields larger observed values than at least one other treatment. To obtain the test statistic, the mean ranks for each treatment and the overall mean rank were computed as follows:
Distribution (%)
r.j =
Scientists (lake fisheries)
22 (34.38)
14 (35.89)
Scientists (agricultural economists)
19 (29.69)
13 (33.33)
Department (Fisheries, Tourism and Lakes)
10 (15.63)
5 (12.82)
Private entrepreneurs/ consultants
9 (14.06)
3 (7.70)
Research scholars
4 (6.25)
4 (10.25)
Persons contacted
150
64
Number of responses
64
39
Response rate
42.60%
60.93%
Distribution (%) Scientists (lake fisheries)
22 (34.38)
14 (35.89)
Scientists (agricultural economists)
19 (29.69)
13 (33.33)
Department (Fisheries, Tourism and Lakes)
10 (15.63)
5 (12.82)
Private entrepreneurs/ consultants
9 (14.06)
3 (7.70)
Research scholars
4 (6.25)
4 (10.25)
r=
b 1∑ rij b i=1
b a 1 ∑∑ rij ba i=1 i=2
(1)
(2)
The following sum of squares are also obtained: SSt = b
a ∑
(rj − r)2
(3)
j=1
SSe =
b a ∑ ∑ 1 (rij − r) b(a − 1) i=1 j=1
(4)
The test statistic is given by χr2 = SSt . When b or a is large (i.e., SSe b > 15 or a > 4), the probability distribution of χr 2 can be approximated by that of a chi-squared distribution. In this case, the p-value is given by P (χ2ra−1 ≥ χr2). If b or a is small, the approximation to chi-
square becomes poor and the p-value should be obtained from χr2 tables specially prepared for the test (Zar, 2010). Kendall’s W is simply a normalization of Friedman’s statistic be-
Round 1, and respondents were asked to either change or accept the ranks assigned in Round 1. Participants who did not respond were reminded twice or thrice in each round.
2.1 | Nonparametric analysis
tween 0 and 1 given by W=
χ2r b(a − 1)
(5)
Rather than an actual test statistic, Kendall’s W can be interpreted as a measure of consensus in rankings, and the associated
The responses collected in the Delphi survey represented respond-
level of confidence can be attached to the mean ranks. Accordingly,
ent opinions on the importance of selected impacts of lake restora-
a Kendall’s W of 1 indicated perfect agreement, and 100 per cent
tion. Such scores in Round 1 and ranks in Round 2 were analysed
level of confidence. A W value 4.50) in Round 2 of the survey.
ticipation from non-respondents in each round, a relatively lower
Table 3 presents the values of Friedman’s χF2 and Kendall’s W
attrition rate was recorded in the present study. Although some
statistics. Friedman’s test was conducted separately for each set of
authors (Walker & Selfe, 1996) argued that “a 70% minimum re-
impacts under three impact types (environmental, social and eco-
sponse rate should be achieved” to maintain rigour in Delphi stud-
nomic) for each round of the survey. All the sets in both rounds
ies, little evidence has actually been offered to support this claim
detected correlation patterns in the responses (p-value 0.4) in case of environmental impacts, followed
pose of the investigation. In this regard, Turoff (1970) suggested
by economic and social impacts (W > 0.3) (W > 0.2), respectively. A
anywhere from 10 to 50 people for a “policy” Delphi, while stud-
build-up of consensus through the two rounds of the Delphi sur-
ies in health applications might include hundreds of participants
vey is suggested by examining the weighted means and standard
(Cantrill et al., 1996).
deviations of respondent scores in Table 2. Impacts receiving high
In congruence with Turoff (1970), the Delphi in the present study
scores in Round 1 tend to receive even higher scores in Round 2
included 64 and 39 respondents in the first and second rounds, re-
as respondents received feedback from the other participants
spectively, which is a good number for conducting policy Delphi.
with the standard deviations generally being less than in Round 2.
This survey was restricted to only two rounds since Hogarth (1978)
Among the environmental impacts, for example, “The increased
reported only minimal improvements are achieved in Delphi beyond
water spread area will help restoration of the breeding grounds of
group sizes of 20–25.
Schizothorax and its resurgence (the Kashmiri gad)” had an average
Rounds
Friedman Stat
ρ value
Kendall’s W
Agreement
Environmental impacts R1
55.39
