IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS PROGRAMME
Very Large Scale PV Plants for a Renewable Energy Future Keiichi Komoto1, Tomoki Ehara2, Christian Breyer3, Sicheng Wang4, Edwin Cunow5, David Faiman6, Parikhit Sinha7 and Namjil Enebish8 1Mizuho
Information & Research Institute (MHIR), 2-3 Kanda-Nishiki-cho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101-8443, Japan, E-mail:
[email protected], 2E-konzal, Japan,
[email protected], 3Lappeenranta University of Technology, Finland,
[email protected], 4Energy gy Research Institute,, National Development p and Reform Commission,, China,,
[email protected], g @ g , 5LSPV Consulting, g, Germany, y,
[email protected], @ p g , 6Ben-Gurion Univ of The Negev, Israel,
[email protected], 7First Solar, Inc., USA,
[email protected], 8National University of Mongolia, Mongolia,
[email protected]
ENERGY FROM THE DESERT The objectives of IEA PVPS Task8, Study on Very Large Scale Photovoltaic (VLS-PV) Systems: to examine and evaluate the potential and feasibility of VLS-PV systems, which have capacities ranging from several megawatts to gigawatts, and to develop strategies for implementation of the VLS-PV systems in the future. In order to meet the environmental challenge in the 21st Century, renewable energy must play an important role. PV is one of the most promising renewable energy technologies. It may be no exaggeration to say that we’re now coming to the stage of energy transition by PV power plants. It is recognised that very large scale PV power plants provide economic, social, and environmental benefits, security of electricity and fair access to affordable and sustainable energy solutions. To deploy large scale PV power plants as a major power source, the feasibility and expected benefits of PV power plants are analysed, as well as a potential for global energy system.
Economic Feasibility
PV power plants with several hundred MW scales are already in the commercial stage and technically feasible. In 2014, some PV plants over 500MW started operation. It will be reasonable to expect that GW-scale PV power plants will come on the market in near future. CPV is another promising technology with options suitable in the desert environment, and some large-scale projects are implemented. PV power plants in the desert have to endure the severe environmental conditions, such as soiling. Cleaning option of the PV plants can be justified if the cost for cleaning is lower than the income generated by the solutions. Pros and Cons of each cleaning options in China
Topaz Solar Farm, CA, USA (550MWAC, CdTe)
Longyangxia, Qinghai, China (520MWDC/AC, c-Si)
Wash + wipe
100
Fast
Excellent
High
Spray + wipe
50-60
Fast
Excellent
High
Special wash vehicle and machine 3-person + water
60MW HCPV, Qinghai, China
Water Cleaning Cleaning Cleaning consumption p speed p result cost
30-40
Fast
Excellent
High
10
slow
Good
Low
Environmental Benefits
China Without VLS-PV
VLS-PV: 100GW VLS-PV: 500GW VLS-PV: 690GW
3,0
2,8
Biocapacity
VLS-PV: 1 000GW
2,4 2,2
2,1 China, Mongolia & Korea
2,0 Without VLS-PV
1,5 VLS-PV: 1 000GW
1,0 World
CIS
VLS-PV: 10 000GW
Thin f ilm Si
0,0 a-Si/sc-Si
Without VLS-PV
sc-Si
0,5
mc-Si
Energy Pay-back Time [year]
2,6 25 2,5
Energy pay back time of 1 GW PV power plant by PV technologies in the Gobi desert, China
0
5
10
15
20
25
Ecological Footpring & Biocapacity [gha/cap] cropland
pasture
forest
fisheries
built space
Chihuahua
Sahara (Nema)
Great Sandy
Thar
0.15
Initial investment 3 MUSD/MW 2 MUSD/MW 1 MUSD/MW 0.10
0.05
WACC for CAPEX: 5,4%. OPEX: 1% of initial investment, Lifetime: 30 years, Ratio of soiling loss: 5%, Degradation rate: 0,5%/year 0.00 1 500
2 000 2 500 Annual global horizontal irradiation [kWh/m2/year]
3 000
Expected LCOE of PV power plants
A construction of GW-scale PV power plant will create substantial and stable demand for PV system components as well as employment for construction if the construction is managed in an appropriate manner. Under the scenario proposed for GW-scale PV plant with sustainable social development, approximately 9 thousand jobs are created during the projected period, pp y 400 stable jjobs are created and approximately annually. It should be noted that, the simulation only includes direct employment. If it is coupled with indirect employment in the supply chain, the impact of VLS-PV on sustainable job creation can be doubled.
energy
Ecological impacts by VLS-PV project on the Gobi desert
Sahara (Ouarzazate)
Negev Gobi (Huhhot)
Social Benefits
PV technology is one of the promising technologies for climate change mitigation, as the Energy Pay-Back Time is very short and the CO2 emission rate is very small. In addition, PV power plants will contribute to saving water by displacing water use from conventional power plants plants.
< 3 years
Gobi (Sainshand)
Life cycle water withdrawal (ref: NREL)
1,600 Installed PV power PV power to supply the grid Power needed to operate the factory
1,400 Ca apacity of PV System [MW]
Methods
(©Yellow River Hydropower Company)
0.20
100MW module factory
1,200 75MW module factory
1,000 800
50MW module factory
Cumulative PV modules manufactured for other plants p
600 25MW module factory
400
Total production scale of manufacturing factories
200
Cumulative amount of EOL modules
0 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Period [years] Lifetime: PV system=30 yrs., factory=10yrs.
Sustainable scenario for VLS-PV development 500 O&M Installation Module manuf acturing
400
300 Jobs
(©First Solar, Inc.)
Initial cost for PV installation has been decreasing. In some regions, LCOE of PV technology is already reached to the level of retail electricity tariff. When it comes to the PV power plant in the desert environment, the LCOE is already low even, 0.1 USD/kWh, with the current module price level. In the near future, PV power plants will become more competitive against conventional power plants; their production costs in tendency are steadily increasing.
LCOE [USD/kWh]
Technical Feasibility
200
100
0 0
5
10
15
20
25 Year Y
30
35
40
45
50
Direct employment by VLS-PV project, with productivity improvement
Vision for PV Power Plants as a Major Power Source The cross-border supply networks for electricity are the prerequisite for the mass deployment of PV power plants as a major power source. Global deployment of PV power plants will be accelerated by developing energy supply system combined with other renewables and energy storage technologies. For Northeast Asia it iis proposed d th thatt th the excellent ll t solar l and d wind i d resources off th the G Gobi bi d desertt could ld b be utilized tili d ffor lload d centers t iin Chi China, K Korea and d JJapan as a contribution t ib ti tto th the energy transformation ahead. Our precise study revealed that 100% renewable energy system in Northeast Asia is reachable. PV will play an important role although wind energy may dominate the region. Main electricity exporters are Northwest, North and Central China. The renewable energy can also be used to produce gaseous and liquid fuel when th power supply the l surpasses th the d demand. d One of the advantages of this technology is that such fuel can be used for non-electricity energy demand such as heat or vehicle fuel. Although there are technical and economic barriers to be solved for the renewable-based fuel production system, low carbon energy system with 100 % renewable energy is certainly possible in the future.
Annual generation and demand (left) and installed capacities (right) for area-wide open trade scenario for Northeast Asia and reference year 2030.
