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Violent Crime Arrests of Youth in California Expected to Decline ...

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VIOLENT CRIME ARRESTS OF. YOUTH IN CALIFORNIA EXPECTED ... Sum of Squares Degrees of Freedom. Mean Square. F. Significan

VIOLENT CRIME ARRESTS OF YOUTH IN CALIFORNIA EXPECTED TO DECLINE THROUGH 2020

Introduction

Figure 1. Violent felony arrests of youth ages 12-17, actual (1995-2015) and projected (2020) 25,000 21,405 20,000 15,997

15,226

15,000

12,999

10,000

7,252

5,844

5,000

1995

2000

Sources: DOF, 2009, 2012, 2016; DOJ, 2011, 2016.

2005

2010

2015

2020

Methods and Data

Predicted Declines

Table 1. Violent felony arrest rates for youth under age 12 and for ages 12-17 Children Under Age 12 Year of Arrest Arrest Rate Arrest Count

Youth Ages 12 to 17 Year of Arrest Arrest Rate Arrest Count

1990

67.0

569

1995

782.5

21,405

1991

79.1

704

1996

774.1

21,495

1992

64.7

590

1997

713.4

20,368

1993

54.5

507

1998

656.3

19,058

1994

61.7

571

1999

618.7

18,173

1995

51.9

486

2000

532.1

15,997

1996

61.5

593

2001

549.6

16,834

1997

65.2

634

2002

488.3

15,335

1998

58.3

578

2003

477.4

15,368

1999

67.7

694

2004

462.8

15,148

2000

57.3

613

2005

462.0

15,226

2001

65.5

734

2006

503.6

16,748

2002

47.1

530

2007

527.0

17,695

2003

39.5

440

2008

512.3

17,238

2004

33.5

369

2009

468.7

15,159

2005

33.2

362

2010

403.2

12,999

2006

30.8

331

2011

347.0

10,990

2007

33.9

355

2012

297.9

9,312

2008

27.6

282

2013

263.9

8,155

2009

22.5

228

2014

257.9

7,893

2010

19.7

201

2015

238.0

7,252

2011

16.6

168

2016

246.4

7,505

2012

12.5

125

2017

216.1

6,594

Projected

2013

14.9

148

2018

234.2

7,167

Arrest

2014

13.1

131

2019

220.4

6,788

Rates

2015

8.8

89

2020

188.2

5,844

Sources: DOF, 2009, 2012, 2016; DOJ, 2011, 2016. Note: Rates are calculated per 100,000 population of the corresponding age group. The populations for youth ages 10-11 are used to calculate arrest rates for youth under age 12.

Conclusion

References

Please note: Each year, every county submits their data to the official statewide databases maintained by appointed governmental bodies. While every effort is made to review data for accuracy and to correct information upon revision, CJCJ cannot be responsible for data reporting errors made at the county, state, or national level.

Appendix A: Regression Output

Multiple R Model

R Square

Standard Error

Observations

0.827

0.684

91.83

21

Sum of Squares

Degrees of Freedom

Mean Square

F

Significance

Regression

347152.8

1

347152.8

41.170

0.000

Residual

160210.4

19

8432.1

507363.2 Unstandardized coefficients (B)

20 Standard Error

T-statistic

P-value

121.960

61.299

1.990

0.061

7.517

1.171

6.416

0.000

ANOVA

Total Regression Coefficients Constant Variable