Weather and prevalence of Nosema spp. in honey bee colonies

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Nosema spp. in honey bee colonies. A 9-year cohort study of .... R et al., 2009) – complete its life cycle under a wider range of temperatures. • Include williams ...
Weather and prevalence of Nosema spp. in honey bee colonies A 9-year cohort study of apiaries in NE Germany Anto Raja Dominic1,3, Sebastian Gisder2, Elke Genersch2 & Andreas Linde1 1

Hochschule für nachhaltige Entwicklung Eberswalde, Dept. of Forest and Environment, Alfred-Möller-Str. 1, 16225, Eberswalde, Germany. ([email protected]) 2 Länderinstitut für Bienenkunde Hohen Neuendorf e.V., Friedrich-Engels-Str. 32, 16540, Hohen Neuendorf, Germany ([email protected]) 3 Freie University, Berlin, Germany

Nosema ceranae - history Apis mellifera

Nosema apis Nosema ceranae (Fries et al. 1996)

Nosema ceranae - history Apis mellifera

Nosema apis Nosema ceranae (Fries et al. 1996)

Nosema ceranae - history Apis mellifera

Nosema apis Nosema ceranae (Fries et al. 1996)

N. ceranae – prevalence (post2003)

N. ceranae N. apis

Adapted from Klee et al. 2007

Study region Study area: 6 federal states of NE Germany Mainz

Area: ~110, 000 km2

Objectives 1. Temporal trends 2. Nosema vs temperature

(field data and recorded weather) 3. Predictive models based on weather

Data source: Nosema prevalence

Data source: 44 apiaries (~10 colonies/apiary) Time period: 2005-2013 spring and autumn prevalence

X Location of the apiaries

Data source: Weather

Daily weather data: 27 weather stations Location of weather stations

Current prevalence

spring prevalence: autumn prevalence:

30% 10%

1. Temporal trends

1. Temporal trends

1. Temporal trends

1. Temporal trends

1. Temporal trends Spring

From around 2009, Autumn

N. ceranae >= N. apis

2. Nosema vs winter temperature N. ceranae (Spring)

10 °C

N. apis (Spring)

lower prevalence of N. ceranae lower prevalence of N. apis

2. Nosema vs winter temperature

(Intercept) Tmin33 °C

N. apis (Autumn)

higher prevalence of N. ceranae N. apis – no significant effect

in-vivo studies by Martin-Hernandez et al. 2009, Williams et al. 2014

3. Predictive models 0.17%

0.4%

0.01%

0.02%

X observed prevalence O predicted values

LOOCV error rates in RED

Summary 1. At the regional level i. N. ceranae is increasing ii. N. apis is decreasing 2. Cold winters lower N. ceranae prevalence 3. Spring Nosema prevalence lowered by warm late winters

4. Hot summers are advantageous to N. ceranae 5. Promising forecast risk models

Thank you for your attention

MeteoGroup, Berlin

Regression models: prediction N. Ceranae (Spring) (Intercept) tmin