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The Science Fiction Prototyping Framework: Building Behavioural, Social and Economic Impact and Community Resilience Dr. Gary Graham Leeds University Business School Dr. Anita Greenhill Manchester Business School Professor Gary Dymski Leeds University Business School Eve Coles Future City and Community Resilience Network Patrick Hennelly Leeds University Business School

FCCR.NET Executive Impact Paper. No. 1

www.FCCRNet.org January 2015

The Science Fiction Prototyping Framework: Building Behavioural, Social and Economic Impact and Community Resilience Background: The prototyping process is about pulling together threads of possibility through conversations of the future. Northern England cities are suffering both socially and economically in this period of austerity. There is a need to find ways to inspire people to think together their circumstance. To try and get people to imagine other future themselves and learn different things. We have an optimistic vision of the improvements both social and economic that logistics innovations can potentially bring to cities and the communities. The driver for prototyping is that technical change and innovation can transform city urban renewal and improve the well-being, resilience and sustainability of communities. Introduction The French philosopher Gaston Berger, well known as the father of French forecasting, pointed out that if current events reflect decisions of the past, future events will be the result of decisions of the present, however this mental attitude of what enables one to prepare for the future is not always in the minds of people and institutions [7]. Miles [1] graphically notes that the ability to survive in an accelerating world of change and challenge calls for even greater creativity in our thinking and for more effective strategic planning and foresight. “Mankind has always had tremendous concern about the future”. That concern is even greater today as the rate of change accelerates, with technological innovations that crowd in on us, breaks with the past multiply and an impression of chaos takes over from the well regulated order of things. These trends are anticipated to accelerate with the rapid advance of the digital economy (DE) (e.g. the Internet of Things, Cloud Computing paradigm and Big Data) and the advance of futuristic urban logistics and smart city designs. Imaginative/qualitative approaches to forecasting, foresight and futurism may be nothing new. But we are currently observing a movement towards more creative and imaginative involvement in “future hunting” whether that be related to technology, firm innovation, smart city design or digitally enhanced and resilient urban communities. In describing what this special issue is about and what it seeks to contribute to the field of technology forecasting and social change, it is probably better first to explain what it’s not about. It is not about the ability of science fiction to accurately predict future technology, business models or strategic futures. We are not proponents of the “SF-asprophecy” meme. Fictional prototyping is a recent spin-off of science fiction, directly inspired by “hard” science fiction writing and more recently many of the imagined worlds of writers like Bruce Sterling, William Gibson, J. G. Ballard and other. The initial function of science fiction prototyping (SFP) was to communicate complex science ideas and their projections to a lay audience, provoking thought and informed discussion on the science. Prototypes set out to do many of the same things as SF does, but in a more concrete way, by introducing real physical objects or real sets of rules and scenarios which require the participation (direct or indirect, voluntary or involuntary) of users, beyond just their emotional and intellectual engagement. In this way, fictional prototyping can ‘test’ objects or tools or storylines. Science Fiction has (in general) been a fixed text until very recently, and though readers have enjoyed many different readings and interpretations, the author

has not been able to adapt or react to their responses. Fictional prototyping further allows the inventor or storyteller to adapt scenario’s as they evolve and as the users or participants give their reactions. However the design of a prototype is challenging as they require the developer to be both a scientific and technological expert and also to be able to write compelling fiction. Experimentation as a form of problem-solving is fundamental to technological innovation [2]. It consists of trial and error directed by a critical amount of insight as to the direction in which a solution might lie. According to LeonardBarton [3] experimentation generates new kinds of innovative capabilities. The fictional prototype initially used imaginative narratives based explicitly on science fact as a design tool in the development of future technology trajectories [4]. This emerging methodology largely focuses on the social, economic and ethical influences of future technology. Prototypes could be taken as indicators of design paths in the on-going search process of an industry [5]. Further, more recently, SFP has enabled forecasters and futurists to have a creative and imaginative dialogue with all stakeholders. Fictional prototyping could be claimed to be an emerging foresight technique attempting to analyse the future as a multiple reality [7]. The aim of SFP was not to have work focused on the new age or utopic. Instead, we set out to build something strategically visionary with respected researchers, activists or consultants guided more by logic and intuition than by ideology. However as Sutter notes [8]: “within any study of possible and desirable futures created through imaginative and creative means, it remains of limited interest if not destined to have a real influence on action”. The ability of the developer ultimately relies on tacit knowledge about science, technology, people, institutions, narrative structures, the creative process, and proper presenting and critiquing skills. The problem with relying on tacit knowledge for foresight is that one’ visions are going to be infected with unexamined biases, and may confirm what you want to know rather than challenge and transform your vision of the future [6]. The main check against such bias is the scientific expertise of the other participants (for instance, reviewers, colleagues, co-authors and science fiction writers) involved in the prototype development process who can check the validity of the original scientific principles under examination. SFP Framework The fictional prototype (Figure 1) uses imaginative narratives based explicitly on science fact as a design tool in the development of technology. Through traditional research and development we begin to define and understand what a technology is. This is the typical work that is going on in industrial labs and universities all over the world. Usually this work continues iterating itself until the technology is refined to such a point that can be productized and incorporated into an existing product. Fictional prototyping adds a step in the technology development process. It asks how the technology will be used. It provides a virtual reality in which the implications, problems and benefits of the technology can be explored. Its purpose is to facilitate the development of firm level “meta narratives” on future innovation and its social and humanitarian impact.

Figure 1 SFP framework – Graham and Greenhill [9, p. 2]

The ultimate goal of the fictional prototype model is to provide a new perspective on the technology that is feeding into its development. From the use of fictional prototypes the benefits of the feeder technology can be explored by providing specific experiments and scenarios for the application of the technology thus illuminating possible benefits or pitfalls. By identifying these elements the development of the technology can be broadened and sometimes accelerated. Research into fictional prototyping builds on and extends the rich history of research on the external face of innovation, bringing renewed attention to the ways firms engage with their external environment to develop and commercialize ideas. Taken together, fictional prototyping brings extra attention to how organizations proactively reshape their relationships to external actors, and the users of technology thereby unlocking new pathways to create value from what they know and can do

Procedural complexity This diagram below presents some of the invisible entities that surround the prototyping framework contributing to its procedural complexity (refer to Figure 3). People are narrative thinkers; they naturally organize their world into stories, and understand when a story makes sense, and when it does not. By combining realistic characters and social milieus with novel technology, science fiction can engage multiple ways of thinking, and draw out underlying values and sites of conflict and confusion. However the envisioning process is complex and depends on the information you have access to: what you know about science and technology, your own life experiences and beliefs, and any related materials provided by the SF community. Pitching and dialog are definitely learned skills, and different people have very different levels of aptitude at them. For instance, it is a difficult technical skill to express and write a concise short story.

Figure 2 The procedural complexity of science fiction prototyping

The ability of the developer ultimately relies on tacit knowledge about science, technology, people, institutions, narrative structures, the creative process, and proper presenting and critiquing skills. The problem with relying on tactic knowledge for foresight is that your visions are going to be infected with unexamined biases, and may confirm what you want to know rather than challenge and transform your vision of the future [2]. The main check against such bias is the scientific expertise of the other participants (for instance, reviewers, colleagues, co-authors and science fiction writers) involved in the prototype development process who can check the validity of the original scientific principles under examination.

Links to management theory and policy making Since policy making is forward looking and decisions made in the present are intended to achieve results in the future, policy makers inevitably have to address themselves to a particular image of the future. Most organizational decisions are based on the assumption that the future will be similar to the present or that past trends will continue into the future. The rapid technological and social changes make extended discussion on the obvious weaknesses in this approach superfluous. The suggested alternative is an explicit and systematic approach to the study of the future. This is not because we already know how to explore the future, but because it is vital to do so. Without futures studies the tendency may be to rely in a random way on a single view of the future which would result in limiting the freedom of choice for planning. The need and

justification for futures studies is in that "the future is too important to be left to chance alone". Sardar’s [10] first law: futures studies are wicked states that almost all the problems we face nowadays are complex, interconnected, contradictory, located in an uncertain environment and embedded in landscapes that are rapidly changing. A major concern, and limitation of the field’s potential, is that so much futures research is carried out in corporate environments for private ends. This has futurist scholars [11] [12] to be concerned about the intellectual deficit this is creating and a pressing need for comprehensive and in-depth work which needs to be carried out not only to assist in economic and technological development, but also to provide an in-depth understanding of underlying social and cultural concerns such as social justice, environmental protection and sustainability. The result is that the majority of corporate futures work lacks both in-depth understanding and progressive outlooks. Drawing on popular culture, and particularly science fiction we can see how images of the future inform our vision of what lies ahead. A Science Fiction (SF) prototype uses science fiction based explicitly on science fact as a design tool in the development of technology. The SF prototype asks how the technology will be used. It provides a virtual reality

in which the implications, problems and benefits of the technology can be explored. The exploration could uncover both best case and worst case scenarios but it also can explore the subtleties of how people will use and interact with the technology. They provide a new perspective on the technology that is feeding into its development. Ultimately, SF protoypes provide us with a vision of the future that we can actually build, they provide a vision for where we think science and technology can go. Though as the 1950s and 1960s have proven we have to be wary of science fiction imagery, which then promised a shining and silvery future. Or the 70s, 80s and 90s which turned the utopian aspirations into dystopian cyberpunk images of bleak future social, business and economic landscapes. The approach provides us with an indicative map of probabilities, rather than a fixed cognitive blueprint of absolute management truths for where we could go next or where we might not want to go next. It is not merely an new ‘take’ on future studies but it has brought to the field a new stage of development with many practical consequences and scholarship that engages with as wide a section of society as is possible in this debate.

References [1] Miles, I. 2010. “The Development of Technology Foresight – A Review”. Technology Forecasting and Social Change 77 (9). pp. 1448-1456. [2] Thomke, S.H. 1997 “Managing Experimentation in the Design of New Products”. Management Science 44 (6). pp. 743–762. [3] Leonard-Barton, D. 1998 Wellsprings of Knowledge: Building and Sustaining theSources of Innovation. Harvard Business School Press, Boston, MA [4] Johnson, B. D., 2011. Science Fiction Prototyping: Designing the Future with SF. Synthesis lecture on Computer Science. Morgan and Claypool Publishers. [5] Johnson, B. D., 2010. Screen Future: the Future of Entertainment, Computers and the Devices We Love. Intel Press. [6] Emerge 2013 SFP: A preliminary assessment. http://wealoneonearth.blogspot.co.uk/2012/03/science-fictionprototyping-preliminary.html, accessed: 21 May 2013. [7] Coates, J., Durance., P. and Godet, M 2010. “Strategic Foresight Issues: Introduction”. Technology Forecasting and Social Change, 77, pp. 1423-1425. [8] Sutter, J. 1983. L’anticipation, Pscyhiatrie ouverte Paris, Presses Universitaires Francaises, Coll. [9] Graham, G., Greenhill, A. & Callaghan, V. 2014. “Creative Prototyping”. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Vol 84 May, pp. 1-4. [10] [10] F. Sardar The namesake: futures; future studies; futurology, futuristic foresight – what’s in a name? Futures 42 (2010), pp. 177-184.

[11] N. Collie, Cities of the imagination: science fiction, urban space and community engagement in urban planning, Futures 43 (2011), pp. 424-431. [12] A. Bergman, J. C. Karlsson, I. Axelsson Truth claims and explanatory claims – an ontological typology of futures studies. Futures 42 (2010), pp. 857-865. Essential Reading describing the origins of the Graham and Greenhill SFP framework Graham, G, Mehmood, R & Coles, E. (2015) "Exploring Future Cityscapes through Urban Logistics Prototyping: a Technical Viewpoint”. Supply Chain Management: an International Journal. Accepted Graham, G. & Mehmood, R. (2014) “The Strategic Prototype Crime Sourcing and the Science/Science Fiction Behind it”. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol 84 May, pp. 86-92. Graham, G. (2014) “Too-Smart Cities? Why These Visions of Utopia Need an Urgent Reality Check Responsive Urban Technology Sounds Enticing but Citizens Must Not be Disconnected from Plans Drawn up on their behalf”. theGuardian.com. Thursday March 13, 2014. Available online: http://www.theguardian.com/cities/2014/mar/13/too-smart-cities- visions-utopia-reality-check Graham, G., Greenhill, A. & Callaghan, V. (2013) “Exploring Business Visions Using Creative Fictional Prototypes”. Futures Vol 50, (June 2013) pp. 1-4. Graham, G. (2013) “Exploring Imaginative Prototypes through the Fictional Prototype Crime-Sourcing”. Futures. Vol 50 (June 2013) pp. 94-100. Keane, J., Burnes, B. & Graham, G. (2014).”Literary Praxiphorical Analysis - Using Science Fact and Fantasy to shape Organizational Futures”. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Vol 84 May, pp. 54-65. Special issues on prototyping SCM: an international Journal. Special Issue entitled: Future Cities and Urban SCM. DOI: November 2015. Production Planning and Control. Special Issue: Smart Cities and Operations Management. DOI: December 2015. Technology Forecasting and Social Change. "Creative science prototyping and the future consumer technology landscape." Vol 84, May 2013. Futures.“Exploring business visions using creative fictional prototypes”. Vol 50, June 2013. Further details on this framework can be found at the following references: Graham, G., Greenhill, A. & Callaghan, V. (2014) “Creative Prototyping”. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. Vol 84 May, pp. 1 - 4