Feb 23, 2018 - Trading is moderate to active. Prices for national ... to active. The monthly inventory of total dried eg
Egg Markets Overview A weekly publication of the USDA AMS Livestock, Poultry, and Seed Program, Agricultural Analytics Division
February 23, 2018
Wholesale prices for shell eggs reversed direction and began to advance as buyers returned to the marketplace to build inventory to supply promotions for the approaching Easter demand period. Supplies are moderate, sometimes light, while offerings are light to moderate. Trading is moderate to active. Prices for national trading of trucklot quantities of graded, loose, White Large shell eggs increased 14 percent (from $1.008 to $1.151 per dozen). The wholesale price on the bellwether New York market for Large shell eggs delivered to retailers rose 14 percent (from $1.44 to $1.64 per dozen) on daily advances. The Midwest wholesale price for Large, white, shell eggs delivered to retailers decreased 17 percent (from $1.53 to $1.27 per dozen) and the California benchmark for Large shell eggs decreased 11 percent (from $2.18 to $1.94 per dozen), both markets reflecting the weakness in the prior marketing period. The undertone for both markets is sharply higher and both are expected to reflect the strength in this week’s market. Demand for shell eggs declines and remains below average as the market enters the Easter twilight zone where prices rise on increased market competition to stock shell eggs for anticipated consumer demand and not for actual current consumer demand which is relatively light. Easter Sunday falls on April 1, 5 calendar weeks away but only 2 to 3 marketing weeks away as Easter promotional activity targeting Easter demand will soon be underway. Supermarket feature activity for conventional shell eggs retreats from the prior ad cycle and the average ad price falls 9 percent (from $1.71 to $1.56 per dozen). Featuring of specialty shell eggs almost doubles, driven by significant offerings of organic shell eggs, and commands 92 percent of ad share. Offerings of UEP-defined cage-free eggs decrease sharply from the past cycle, and account for 9 percent of all shell egg features. The average ad price for Large cage-free decreases 2 percent (from $2.63 to $2.57 per dozen). The spread between 12-packs of Large conventional shell eggs and their cage-free counterparts, at 1.01 per dozen this week, widens by 10 percent. The overall inventory of shell eggs increased 5 percent while the national inventory of Large eggs increased 6 percent. The inventory of Large eggs in the key Midwest production region rose 2 percent. The inventory share of Large caged eggs this week increased to nearly 53 percent of stocks on hand. Breaking stock inventories increased 8 percent as breakers competed aggressively to acquire stocks in anticipation of increased carton business for the approaching Easter marketing period. Total table egg production for the week was unchanged and is a little over one percent below the rate of one year ago. The wholesale price for breaking stock in the Central State increased sharply, rising 10 percent (from $0.79 to $0.87 per dozen) and the undertone indicates continued price advance. Demand is heightened as breakers seek to acquire stock to bide them through the Easter marketing period when breaking stock availability on the open market is limited as producers focus on carton business. Supplies are light to moderate and breaking schedules continue full-time. Trading is moderate, bordering on active. The volume of eggs processed this past week was unchanged, representing 31 percent of weekly table egg production. Only production of whole egg increased, up one percent, while production of whites and yolks, so active the week before, were unchanged. Wholesale prices for frozen egg products strengthened during the trading period. Prices for whole frozen eggs increased one percent (from $0.83 to $0.84 per pound) while those for frozen whites rose 4 percent (from $0.51 to $0.53 per pound). Supplies and offerings are light to moderate, demand is moderate to fairly good, best for whole egg. The pace of trading is moderate. Wholesale prices for whole dried eggs increased 3 percent (from $3.00 to $3.10 per pound). Prices for dried yolks declined one percent (from $3.65 to $3.60 per pound) while those for dried albumen rose 4 percent (from $3.45 to $3.60 per pound). Demand is moderate to good for albumen, light to moderate for other types. Offerings and supplies are light to moderate. The pace of trading is moderate to active. The monthly inventory of total dried egg products for January rose 4 percent from December and is 50 percent below December 2016. Stocks of whole dried eggs increased 5 percent from December while stocks of whites declined 5 percent. Yolk stocks continue to rise, up 10 percent for the month with stocks of blend up 12 percent. To date, cage-free commitments stand at 108 grocery chains/distributors, 58 restaurants, 18 foodservice providers, 11 hospitality and travel firms, 14 food manufacturers, 17 convenience/drug chains, and 4 dollar variety stores who, combined, will require 63 billion cage-free eggs per year to meet current and future needs. This will require a cage-free flock of over 227 million hens (72% of the U.S. non-organic flock), indicating a shortage of 190 million hens from the current cage-free flock. No new cage-free commitments of any scale have been reported for the past few months. While significant progress has been made to fulfilling commitments made by end users (restaurants, manufacturers, etc.), progress to fulfilling commitments by retailers has been much slower and is dependent on consumer demand. As a result, producers are better able to align their cage-free expansion plans with the pace of consumer demand, returning a more natural equilibrium to the marketplace. Source: USDA AMS Agricultural Analytics Division (www.ams.usda.gov/services/market-research/aad)
Shell Eggs, Large, White, National Index (f.o.b. dock, cents per dozen)
2018
2017
2016
166.0 141.0 116.0 91.0 66.0 41.0 16.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53
Source: USDA AMS Agricultural Analytics
Central States Breaking Stock Eggs (cents per dozen)
2018
2017
2016
110.0
85.0
60.0
35.0
10.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53
Source: USDA AMS Agricultural Analytics
U.S. Table Egg Demand (Shell Egg Demand Index)
2018
2017
2016
25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53
Source: USDA AMS Agricultural Analytics
Source: USDA AMS Agricultural Analytics Division (www.ams.usda.gov/services/market-research/aad)
