weekly football tip sheet

weekly football tip sheet ISSUE 22 super bowl

Football Weekly

INDEX

Rotation Schedule..........................................................................................1 Historic Super Bowl Handicapping Trends and Systems.............................2 Super Bowl XLVIII Matchups...........................................................................6 Prop Bet Selections.........................................................................................8 Proposition Betting Breakdown...................................................................13 Football Line Moves......................................................................................14 A Look at College Football 2014.................................................................15

WELCOME TO THE VEGASINSIDER FOOTBALL WEEKLY

We have reached the conclusion of the second season of the Vegas Insider Football Weekly, so of course, we wrap up the year with a special issue devoted exclusively to the big game. Oh, and what a big game it is, a matchup of the top seeds from each conference, the Seahawks from the NFC, and the Broncos, representing the AFC. There are matchups and stories galore to discuss before the teams hit the field on Sunday, and as sure as we are that you’ve already heard more than your fair share of coverage, we are confident that we’ve put together a publication worthy of your attention. Perhaps we’ll even be able to confirm or change your opinions on the contest with our own viewpoints. In any case, we here at Vegas Insider feel we’ve put together a top notch season finale issue that will help you get ready for the most important action on the game…the wagering. This week’s Vegas Insider Football Weekly covers almost everything it could in terms of handicapping the Super Bowl, from history of the NFL’s biggest game, to stats and specific matchups between the Seahawks and Broncos, to picks from our staff of experts on the game, total, and 15 different prop wagers being offered by Sportsbook.com. It’s sure to be a great piece of reference as you prepare for Sunday’s game. The VI guys and Strength Indicators won big on championship Sunday, scoring three out of four correct picks as a Consensus. With Denver, Seattle, and the NFC OVER all winning, the VI experts were 5-1 ATS on Best Bets and the Consensus selections were 3-1 to advance to 54% for the season, the same won-lost percentage that was achieved in college football for the season. Who do the experts and Strength Indicators like for Super Bowl XLVIII? Turn to page 7 for the start of our game picks and opinions on 15 other exotic/prop wagers. This being the season finale issue of the Vegas Insider Football Weekly, we’d like to take one last time to thank you for making this second season run of the publication a great success. The readership & feedback from customer was overwhelmingly satisfying. If you were among the silent majority, we hope you enjoyed the various statistical offerings and editorial features we offered up over the course of the last 22 weeks. Before subscribing to anything next season, we encourage you to do the research and see if any publication or tip service can match the 56% mark the VIFW achieved on our POWER RATINGS this season for BOTH college or pro football, OR the 54% achieved by our CONSENSUS picks. Considering the sheer volume of games we select each week, the value customers received on their $200 subscription investment was certainly reward. In the meantime, continue to take advantage of all the great handicapping resources offered for you on the website, including free and premium odds, stats, in-depth matchups, key injury news, and top notch analysis from some of the country’s top sports betting experts. Good luck with all of your Super Bowl Sunday wagering!

ROTATION SCHEDULE SUPER BOWL XLVIII METLIFE STADIUM - EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 2, 2014 101 SEATTLE 47.5 47 P: 3:30PM C: 5:30PM E: 6:30PM FOX 102 DENVER -1 -2

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AUGUST 30 – SEPTEMBER 3

SUPER BOWL TRENDS

Football Weekly

HISTORIC SUPER BOWL HANDICAPPING TRENDS AND SYSTEMS

There is no doubt that the Super Bowl is the biggest single sporting event on the calendar each year so for no other reason, it is loaded with historical significance. This year’s matchup in New York between Seattle and Denver will be the 48th such contest, and for just the first time since 1991, the league’s best offense will match against the league’s best defense. It is also just the second time in the last 20 years in which the top seeds from their respective conferences will be meeting to decide the NFL champion. While those storylines would figure to be captivating enough, the Broncos boast a record-setting quarterback in Peyton Manning, while the Seahawks are in search of their first ever Super Bowl title. It figures to be a classic matchup. Which team has the edge though? Are there any statistical indicators that have helped us determine that in advance? Do any of the past 47 Super Bowl results impact the way we will approach wagering on this year’s contest? Like we’ve done for each successive round of the postseason, let’s dig into past Super Bowl game handicapping trends and systems to see if we can’t uncover something that might make us a sure-fire winner this time around. New York’s MetLife Stadium hosts this year’s Super Bowl XLVIII matchup between Denver & Seattle, and of course, folks have been trying to project for months what type of affect the weather will have on the proceedings. Of course, the stadium is an outdoor facility and New York isn’t exactly South Beach at this time of year. The Broncos are no strangers to MetLife Stadium, as they won here back in September against the Giants, 41-23. The Seahawks are even more recent acquaintances with the facilities, having beaten the Giants in December. Neither team had to deal with any significant weather elements in their two home postseason wins however.

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Before getting into the numbers, we always like to send out a note of caution when it comes to wagering on the Super Bowl game, and that is to remember that it is simply one game, the singular most wagered event in all of sports, and thus heavily weighted by oddsmakers to attract public action. At first glance, the Broncos seem to be the latest public darlings. For whatever reason, bettors took them in droves after the initial release of the Super Bowl line. In fact, Denver was driven from a 2-point underdog to a 1.5-point favorite in less than 24 hours. We’ll discuss the impact of that particular factor a bit later. In this day &

age, it’s rare that the two teams most experts felt were the best halfway through the season are representing their conferences in Super Bowl. With that type on consistency having been shown by both teams, it makes the extreme line move even more puzzling. The Broncos would seems to have the sentimental edge, with Manning looking for a second crown to wrap up what was an incredible season for him just a year-plus removed from major neck surgery. We’ll see how it all plays out on Sunday. Under all circumstances though, wager wisely, as no one game should outweigh a season’s worth of hard work or a springtime of gambling debt. Remember the college basketball tournament is right around the corner! The Super Bowl game line is set up differently than one in the regular season, simply because of the vast number of amateurs partaking in the betting festivities for perhaps their only time all year. In other words, a “square” line typically becomes even more square. If you do a search on “NFL Power Ratings” currently, you’ll find that most reputable sites indicate the line for this year’s game should be Denver by 0.5-1.0 points or so. At last check, they are laying 2.5-points. There lies immediate value. With so much money on the line for the Super Bowl, this may be the one game each year where the HOUSE truly is looking for balanced action rather than taking a side. That is the reason for what might be considered an unexpected line, but according to the betting data we received from Sportsbook.com at presstime, 76% of bets on the pointspread were in on the Broncos, while just 24% sided with the Seahawks. Watch closely to see if those numbers even up throughout the week, otherwise books could be rooting hard for the underdogs on Sunday. If you recall in this article last year, we noted that 66% of plays were on San Francisco, the team that ultimately lost, making it a big day for the books. The other challenge that faces bettors is that the Super Bowl offers some variation from the normal handicapping routine. Two weeks of rest, a neutral field, and hundreds of available proposition bets, all of which can make for a sometime overwhelming task of handicapping. If you choose to wager on numerous different options, be prepared to find yourself conflicted near the end of the game. As always, it does pay off to do your homework. Hopefully, with everything we’re offering for Sunday’s showdown, you will at least go into the betting process prepared. Part of that preparation should always involve looking at the history of the game. That is what we are here to do now, as we look back at 47 years of Super Bowl action, uncovering the stats, trends, and systems you’ll need to make educated selections.

SUPER BOWL STAT ANGLES

We always like to remind people that over the two week break, both teams will get to know the other’s tendencies inside & out, as their excellent coaching staffs will pour over game film and

THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

Football Weekly

Rushing yards, passing yards per attempt, turnovers, and time of possession are four key statistical categories that we have found to have a great impact on who has won Super Bowl games. The following trends demonstrate the importance of these statistics. • Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 36-11 SU & 33-11-3 ATS (75%). However, the 49ers outrushed Baltimore 182-93 in last year’s game and lost. • Teams that average more passing yards per attempt in the NFL title game are 40-7 SU & 3410-3 ATS (77%). Again however, San Francisco generated some big numbers last year in rallying from behind but came up short against the Ravens. • In the 47 previous Super Bowls, the team that has more turnovers has won just four times SU and six times ATS (13%). The Steelers’ last three world championships were the last three times it happened. • Teams that win the time of possession battle are 34-13 SU & 33-11-3 ATS (75%) in the history of the Super Bowl. • Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories are 37-2 SU & 33-5-1 ATS (87%). • Teams that win all four categories are 24-0 SU & 22-1-1 ATS (96%). The only ATS loss occurred in Super Bowl XXXIX in Philadelphia’s ATS win versus the Patriots. In 2012, the Giants did in fact win all four categories against New England Naturally, turnovers will be hard to predict, but the other stats should be relatively predictable for any advanced handicapper or service regularly using sophisticated statistical models for simulation. As you can see from above, projecting these numbers is certainly worth the effort. However, keep in mind that when the game turns out like last year’s, where one team has to furiously rally from behind, that team is capable of generating better stats than the team playing from ahead and trying to shorten the contest.

PAST SUPER BOWL TRENDS AND SYSTEMS

The 2006 Super Bowl run by Pittsburgh was significant as we believe it dramatically changed the belief of teams in what it takes to become a champion in the NFL. The Steelers were the first #6 seed that emerged to win the Lombardi

Trophy. It used to be that winning in the regular season, earning a bye week, and capitalizing on home field advantage was the recipe to postseason success. Since the Steelers’ win, we have seen four other teams that played in the wildcard round win titles, Indianapolis, the Giants twice, and Green Bay. Strangely, three of those aforementioned teams were actually favored in the big game. Furthermore, in 2009, we had a team that won just nine games in the regular season come within seconds of winning the Super Bowl. While the Cardinals lost in heartbreaking fashion, they still managed to cover the pointspread, again defying all that we had come to learn about Super Bowl handicapping prior to ’06. All of this has naturally made it difficult on handicappers who rely on such things as strength ratings and historical templates that have demonstrated the best teams excelling when it mattered most, the playoffs. This year’s game has restored some normalcy, with both teams having held serve in their conferences, winning twice at home in the playoffs to reach this point.

SUPER BOWL TRENDS

prepare a game plan so thoroughly that nothing will surprise them. Plus, ever since the NFC’s run of dominance ended in the late 90’s, there has been no such thing as a physical mismatch in the Super Bowl. That means that the game will come down to little more than pure execution. The old saying goes “dance with the one that brought you”, and most Super Bowl coaches turn to the things that brought them to the big game. In Seattle’s case, it’s a power running game and a dominant defense. For Denver, it’s the precision passing attack. We’ll see what prevails, but the eventual winner is usually the team that best controls the line of scrimmage, makes the most big plays, and avoids catastrophic mistakes like turning the ball over.

We’re sure you’ll agree that some of what is to come is pure fluff, but some things might sit well with you, and others, well, they might just make you seem smarter than the guy sitting next to you at Sunday’s party. Start with this one for instance…Seattle has become just the third NFC team since ’98 to represent the conference in the Super Bowl more than one time. St. Louis and the Giants are the others in a trend that shows an amazing degree of parity in the NFC.

ATS AND MONEY LINE TRENDS

• Favorites in the Super Bowl are 31-16 SU and own an ATS mark of 22-22-3 (50%). However, over the past 12 years, underdogs own a 9-3 ATS (75%) edge. The only three favorites to win and cover in that span were Green Bay in 2011, Indy in ’07 and Pittsburgh in ’06. • Favorites of a touchdown or more are 3-2 SU but 0-4-1 ATS (0%) since the millennium. Still, there hasn’t been a favorite of that magnitude since the Patriots in 2008, and for this year’s game, oddsmakers actually struggled in determining a favorite. • The straight up winner is 38-6-3 ATS (86.4%) in the 47 previous Super Bowls, giving little reason to suggest that the Seahawks will be able to cover the Vegas number if they don’t win outright. In fact, the dog has never covered a pointspread without winning on a Super Bowl line of less than 6-points. • The NFC holds a 25-22 SU and 25-19-3 (57%) ATS edge all time, and is on a 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS run currently. Going back a bit further, NFC teams are 8-3 ATS since ‘03. Of course, the 49ers lost outright as favorites last February. • The team that is the higher, or better, playoff seed is just 1-13-2 ATS (7%) in the last 18 Super Bowl games! Note, in 2011 (New Orleans and Indianapolis) and this season, the respective #1 seeds matched up. • The team with the better record going into the Super Bowl game is 28-16 SU all-time, but has lost EIGHT straight games outright. (note: this year’s game marks the fourth time the teams had identical won-lost marks) • Teams playing in their first Super Bowl against


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SUPER BOWL TRENDS

Football Weekly an experienced club are 6-2-1 ATS in their L9, however, as both Seattle & Denver have been in Super Bowl’s before, this trend won’t apply on Sunday. Still, it’s been an eight year drought for the Seahawks and 15 years for the Broncos. Furthermore, Seattle’s roster doesn’t feature even a single player with Super Bowl experience. • The teams in this year’s game, Denver is 2-4 SU & ATS in past Super Bowl games, while the Seahawks lost their only appearance outright & ATS in 2006. • In terms of scoring, the average winning score is 30.0 PPG, with the average losing score being 15.9 PPG, an average winning margin 14.1 PPG. However, interestingly, the last ten games have been decided by 14 points or less, another sign of the changed times in the NFL. • The Giants of 2008 became the first team in 33 years to win the Super Bowl without hitting the 20-point mark. • Since the epic 35-31 duel between Pittsburgh and Dallas in Super Bowl XIII in 1979, there have been 20 teams to hit the 30-point mark in this game, their record: 19-1 SU & 18-2 ATS. Only New England, a 32-29 winner over Carolina in ’04, and San Francisco last season, failed to cover their pointspreads. • There have been 17 previous Super Bowl teams that have failed to reach the 14-point mark. Their record…0-17 SU & ATS (0%). • More on the recent competitiveness of the game, of the only 14 games to be decided by less than a touchdown, five of them have been in the last six years. Furthermore, the average margin of victory over the L9 Super Bowl games has been 6.3 PPG, the lowest of any decade-stretch in the history of the game.

OVER/UNDER TRENDS

• Overall, in the 29 Super Bowl games that have had totals, the OVER is 17-11-1. • There have been 46.0 PPG scored in the Super Bowl on average, but 50.8 PPG in the era in which totals have been posted. The average posted total has been 47.3, very similar to this year’s number at presstime, 47.5. • Last year’s 34-31 shootout between the Ravens & 49ers snapped a string of seven straight Super Bowl games with a posted total of 47 or higher going UNDER. • In the last four Super Bowl games played outdoors, UNDER the total is 3-1. • The ’13 Super Bowl was one of only 12 in history that saw both teams reach the 20-point mark. Eight of nine that had totals were OVER’s.

TEAMS’ REGULAR SEASON OFFENSIVE STATISTICS TRENDS

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• Teams that scored more points per game during the regular season are on a 4-1 ATS run in the L5 Super Bowl games. DENVER outscored SEATTLE by nearly 12 points per game in the regular season. • The ability to run the football has been much-overrated when it comes to Super Bowl success. Teams who averaged more rushing yards per game are just 3-9 ATS since ’02. Those that averaged more yards per rush are 5-7 ATS in that span. SEATTLE was better on both

accounts in the regular season. • Overall passing yardage has also meant little in terms of Super Bowl success, with teams owning an edge in total offensive passing yardage going only 5-7 ATS in the L12 games. This edge easily goes to DENVER for 2014. • Big play potential has proven a somewhat key ingredient to Super Bowl victories, as teams gaining more passing yards per attempt are on a 6-4 ATS run. Chalk up an edge to the BRONCOS again here, as they gained an impressive 8.3 yards per attempt in the regular season. • Teams that generated more yardage overall offensively in the regular season own no edge when it comes to Super Bowl success, going 5-5 ATS over the L10 seasons. This edge goes to DENVER for 2014, as it gained 118.3 yards per game more than SEATTLE. • The offensive yards per play statistic has also proven somewhat important, as teams with an edge in that offensive category are on a 6-4 ATS surge over the L10 years on Super Bowl Sunday. DENVER…another edge, 6.3 to 5.6. • Offensive yards per point has not proven to be an effective statistical indicator, as teams who have averaged fewer yards per point are just 3-8 ATS in the L11 Super Bowls. DENVER hopes to reverse this trend. • The offensive turnovers statistic has been quite misleading in terms of Super Bowl handicapping, with teams owning an edge in this stat going just 2-8 ATS in the Super Bowl since ’03. SEATTLE has the turnover edge this time around. • Teams that converted 3rd downs opportunities more efficiently in the regular season have the worst trend mark of any offensive stat edge, 3-9 ATS in the L12 Super Bowls. DENVER owns the edge here, 46% to 39%.

TEAMS’ REGULAR SEASON DEFENSIVE STATISTICS TRENDS

• Teams that allowed fewer points per game during the regular season are on a 7-game ATS losing streak in Super Bowl games. SEATTLE hopes to turn this trend around, owing a better than 10.0 PPG advantage this season over DENVER. • Teams that allowed fewer rushing yards per game have gone just 3-9 ATS in the Super Bowl games of the L12 seasons, giving the statistical handicapper little reason to consider it when analyzing the games. Unfortunately we can’t take advantage of this trend in 2014 as SEATTLE and DENVER both yielded exactly 1626 yards rushing this season. • Yards PER rush defense has also been a false indicator of predictive success in the Super Bowl, as teams with an edge in that stat are just 2-10 ATS since ’02. This year’s teams both allowed less than 4.0 YPR, but SEATTLE had a slight edge, 3.85 to 3.87. • Super Bowl playoff teams with an edge in defensive passing yardage allowed over their opponent are 7-4 ATS over the L11 seasons. This is another edge that goes to the SEAHAWKS, as they were the league’s best team in this category by over 350 yards. • Teams with the edge in defensive pass efficiency are just 1-6 ATS in the L7 Super Bowls.


Football Weekly

PAST SB GAMES & LINES SB# (Date) 47 (2/3/13) 46 (2/5/12) 45 (2/6/11) 44 (2/7/10) 43 (2/1/09) 42 (2/3/08) 41 (2/4/07) 40 (2/5/06) 39 (2/6/05) 38 (2/1/04) 37 (1/26/03) 36 (2/3/02) 35 (1/28/01) 34 (1/30/00) 33 (1/31/99) 32 (1/25/98) 31 (1/26/97) 30 (1/28/96) 29 (1/29/95) 28 (1/30/94) 27 (1/31/93) 26 (1/26/92) 25 (1/27/91) 24 (1/28/90) 23 (1/22/89) 22 (1/31/88) 21 (1/25/87) 20 (1/26/86) 19 (1/20/85) 18 (1/22/84) 17 (1/30/83) 16 (1/24/82) 15 (1/25/81) 14 (1/20/80) 13 (1/21/79) 12 (1/15/78) 11 (1/9/77) 10 (1/18/76) 9 (1/12/75) 8 (1/13/74) 7 (1/14/73) 6 (1/16/72) 5 (1/17/71) 4 (1/11/70) 3 (1/12/69) 2 (1/14/68) 1 (1/15/67)

Spread SF -4.5 NE -3 GB -3 IND -4.5 Pit -6.5 NE -12.5 Ind -6.5 Pit -4 NE -7 NE -7 Oak -3.5 StL -14 Bal -3 StL -7 Den -7.5 GB -11.5 GB -14 Dal -13.5 SF -18 Dal -10.5 Dal -6 Was -7 Buf -7 SF -12.5 SF -7 Den -3.5 NYG -9.5 Chi -10 SF -3 Was -3 Mia -3 Pk em' Phi -3 Pitt -10.5 Pitt -4 Dal -6 Oak -4.5 Pitt -6.5 Pit -3 Mia -6.5 Was -1.5 Dal -6 Dal -2.5 Min -12 Bal -18 GB -13.5 GB -14

Total NFC TEAM 47.5-OV San Francisco 53-UN NY Giants 44.5-OV Green Bay 56.5-UN New Orleans 46.5-OV Arizona 54-UN NY Giants 47-UN Chicago 46.5-UN Seattle 47-UN Philadelphia 38-OV Carolina 44-OV Tampa Bay 52.5-UN St Louis 32.5-OV NY Giants 48-UN St Louis 51.5-OV Atlanta 49-OV Green Bay 49-OV Green Bay 52-UN Dallas 54-OV San Francisco 50.5-UN Dallas 45-OV Dallas 49-OV Washington 39-T NY Giants 47-OV San Francisco 47.5-UN San Francisco 47-OV Washington 40.5-OV NY Giants 37-OV Chicago 53-OV San Francisco Washington Washington San Francisco Philadelphia LA Rams Dallas Dallas Minnesota Dallas Minnesota Minnesota Washington Dallas Dallas Minnesota Baltimore Green Bay Green Bay

It would appear that more of the statistical edges in this year’s contest side with SEATTLE, but the trend records associated with being the superior team in these categories certainly don’t warrant playing the SEAHAWKS against the spread. If only it was that easy and you could just stop here, right? We also wish we could again just suggest to follow the money, as we have in the past three rounds of playoff games, but unfortunately, again it’s not that easy. “Sharps” are only 4-3 ATS the last seven Super Bowl games in which they moved an opening line, winning with Baltimore last season. Of course, bettors are all over the Broncos this season, moving them from an opening line underdog to a favorite almost immediately. Incidentally, lime movers are also 4-3 in the L7 games in which they moved totals as well.

NFC TEAM & STATS Result Score Rush Pass 31 182 286 SU/ATS 21 114 282 SU/ATS 31 50 288 SU/ATS 31 51 281 ATS 23 58 234 SU/ATS 17 91 247 17 111 154 10 147 259 ATS 21 45 324 ATS 29 92 295 SU/ATS 48 150 215 17 90 427 7 66 86 SU 23 29 407 19 131 206 24 95 255 SU 35 115 208 SU 27 56 198 SU/ATS 49 139 316 SU/ATS 30 137 204 SU/ATS 52 137 271 SU/ATS 37 125 292 SU/ATS 20 172 214 SU/ATS 55 144 317 SU 20 112 341 SU/ATS 42 280 322 SU/ATS 39 136 263 SU/ATS 46 167 241 SU/ATS 38 211 326 9 90 193 SU/ATS 27 276 124 SU/ATS 26 127 148 10 69 291 19 107 194 PUSH 31 154 176 SU/ATS 27 143 182 14 71 282 ATS 17 108 162 6 17 102 7 72 166 7 141 87 SU/ATS 24 252 100 13 102 113 7 67 172 7 143 181 SU/ATS 33 160 162 SU/ATS 35 133 228

SUPER BOWL TRENDS

Chalk up a significant edge in this stat to the SEAHAWKS, by 1.3 yard per attempt. • Teams that allowed less yardage overall defensively are also just 1-6 ATS since ’07, and 3-9 ATS since ’02 in the Super Bowl. This “edge” goes to SEATTLE for 2014. Teams with an edge in yards per play, again SEATTLE this season, share the exact same mark. • Defensive yards per point should be given serious consideration for Super Bowl Sunday, only if you are fading the team with the edge, 2-8 ATS since ’04. “Advantage”: SEATTLE. • Teams that forced more turnovers in the regular season than their opponent are 6-6 ATS since ’02 in Super Bowl play. SEATTLE forced more turnovers than DENVER in the regular season. • Teams that stopped 3rd downs opportunities more efficiently in the regular season are on a mediocre 4-8 ATS run in the L12 Super Bowl games. SEATTLE ranked 10th in the NFL in this category this season, while DENVER was 16th.

AFC TEAM & STATS PYA 10.21 7.05 7.38 7.21 7.80 7.30 5.50 5.29 6.35 8.94 6.32 9.70 2.21 9.04 5.89 6.07 7.70 8.61 8.32 7.56 9.03 8.85 6.69 9.91 9.47 10.73 10.52 10.04 9.31 5.51 5.39 6.73 7.66 7.46 5.87 6.50 6.41 6.75 3.92 5.93 3.11 5.26 4.35 6.14 4.41 6.75 9.50

TO TOP 2 27:37 0 37:05 0 26:35 0 30:11 1 33:01 1 30:27 5 21:56 1 33:02 4 28:23 1 21:02 1 37:14 3 23:03 5 25:54 0 23:34 4 28:37 3 27:35 0 34:15 0 26:11 0 31:31 1 34:29 2 31:12 1 33:43 0 40:33 0 39:31 1 27:24 1 35:15 0 34:39 2 39:15 2 37:11 3 31:38 2 36:15 1 30:34 4 30:11 1 29:31 3 33:42 2 38:38 3 26:33 3 30:03 5 21:13 2 26:15 3 32:31 1 39:12 4 31:23 5 25:27 5 23:05 0 35:54 1 31:25

AFC Team Baltimore New England Pittsburgh Indianapolis Pittsburgh New England Indianapolis Pittsburgh New England New England Oakland New England Baltimore Tennessee Denver Denver New England Pittsburgh San Diego Buffalo Buffalo Buffalo Buffalo Denver Cincinnati Denver Denver New England Miami LA Raiders Miami Cincinnati Oakland Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Denver Oakland Pittsburgh Pittsburgh Miami Miami Miami Baltimore Kansas City NY Jets Oakland Kansas City

Result Score Rush Pass SU/ATS 34 93 274 17 83 266 25 126 261 17 99 333 SU 27 53 374 14 45 229 SU/ATS 29 191 239 SU/ATS 21 181 158 SU 24 112 219 SU 32 127 354 21 19 250 SU/ATS 20 133 267 SU/ATS 34 111 133 PUSH 16 159 208 SU/ATS 34 121 336 SU/ATS 31 179 123 PUSH 21 43 214 ATS 17 103 207 26 67 287 13 87 227 17 108 254 24 43 240 19 166 205 10 64 103 ATS 16 106 123 10 97 230 20 52 320 10 7 116 16 25 289 SU/ATS 38 231 154 17 96 80 21 72 284 SU/ATS 27 117 260 SU/ATS 31 84 309 SU 35 66 291 10 121 35 SU/ATS 32 266 163 SU 21 149 190 SU/ATS 16 249 84 SU/ATS 24 196 63 SU/ATS 14 184 69 3 80 105 SU/ATS 16 69 260 SU/ATS 23 151 122 SU/ATS 16 142 195 14 107 186 10 72 167

PYA 8.30 6.49 6.53 7.40 8.69 4.77 6.29 7.18 6.64 7.38 5.68 9.89 5.12 5.78 11.59 5.59 4.46 3.51 5.22 4.54 6.68 4.07 6.83 3.55 4.92 5.90 7.80 3.22 5.78 6.16 4.71 8.35 12.38 14.71 9.70 1.40 8.58 10.00 6.00 9.00 6.27 4.57 10.40 7.18 6.72 5.47 5.22

TO 1 1 3 1 2 1 3 2 1 1 5 0 0 0 1 2 4 3 3 3 9 5 0 4 1 3 1 6 2 2 2 4 0 3 3 8 0 0 2 0 2 3 7 1 1 3 1

TOP 32:23 22:55 33:25 29:49 26:59 29:33 38:04 26:58 31:37 38:58 22:46 26:03 34:06 36:26 31:23 32:25 25:45 33:49 28:29 25:31 28:48 26:17 19:27 20:29 32:26 24:45 25:21 20:45 22:49 28:22 23:45 29:26 29:49 30:29 26:18 21:22 33:27 29:03 38:47 33:45 27:29 20:48 28:37 34:33 36:01 24:06 28:35


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SUPER BOWL XLVIII

Football Weekly

SUPER BOWL XLVIII

(101) SEATTLE [SU:15-3 | ATS:12-6] VS (102) DENVER (-2 | 47) [SU:15-3 | ATS:11-5-2] FEBRUARY 2, 2014 6:30 PM on FOX - METLIFE STADIUM (EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ)[NEUT]

Offensive Statistics Defensive Offensive Statistics Defensive Statistics Statistics 2012 Season PG FD YPPT PPG PPT TOD 2013 PPPG FD RUSHING PASSING YPPT PPG FD RUSHING PASSING Y YPPT TOD PDIF SEATTLE 25.7 19 32-138 [4.3] 26-16-196 [7.6] 13.0 14.6 18 26-105 [4.0] 33-19-178 [5.4] 19.4 +23 +11.1 DENVER 36.4 27 29-117 [4.0] 42-29-337 [8.1] 12.5 24.0 21 25-97 [3.9] 38-22-251 [6.7] 14.5 -2 +12.4

GAME TRENDS • SEATTLE is 14-1 ATS(L3Y) - Against strong passing teams averaging more than 7.1 yards per attempt(CS) • DENVER is 2-9 ATS(L3Y) - Against dominant teams outscoring opponents by more than 8.0 points per game(CS) • SEATTLE is 6-2 UNDER(L2Y) - Against elite offensive teams averaging more than 6.0 yards per play(CS) STRENGTH RATINGS BRD #’’s 101 102

Teams SEATTLE DENVER

Actual 47 -2

Power Ratings Rtg Line Edge? 29 30 -1.0

HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN SEATTLE 2013-14 GAME LOG DATE OPPONENT FL 9/8 at CAROLINA -3 9/15 SAN FRANCISCO -5 9/22 JACKSONVILLE -19.5 9/29 at HOUSTON -1.5 10/6 at INDIANAPOLIS -3 10/13 TENNESSEE -11.5 10/17 at ARIZONA -5 10/28 at ST LOUIS -13 11/3 TAMPA BAY -16 11/10 at ATLANTA -3 11/17 MINNESOTA -13.5 12/2 NEW ORLEANS -6.5 12/8 at SAN FRANCISCO 2.5 12/15 at NY GIANTS -8.5 12/22 ARIZONA -8 12/29 ST LOUIS -11.5 1/11 NEW ORLEANS -9 1/19 SAN FRANCISCO -4

OU 44 44.5 39 41 43.5 42 41 43 40 47 45 48 41.5 43.5 42.5 41 44 40.5

SCORE SU ATS OU 12-7 W W U 29-3 W W U 45-17 W W O 23-20 W W O 28-34 L L O 20-13 W L U 34-22 W W O 14-9 W L U 27-24 W L O 33-10 W W U 41-20 W W O 34-7 W W U 17-19 L W U 23-0 W W U 10-17 L L U 27-9 W W U 23-15 W L U 23-17 W W U

Effective Strg Proj Edge? 25.1 25.0

DENVER 2013-14 GAME LOG DATE OPPONENT 9/5 BALTIMORE 9/15 at NY GIANTS 9/23 OAKLAND 9/29 PHILADELPHIA 10/6 at DALLAS 10/13 JACKSONVILLE 10/20 at INDIANAPOLIS 10/27 WASHINGTON 11/10 at SAN DIEGO 11/17 KANSAS CITY 11/24 at NEW ENGLAND 12/1 at KANSAS CITY 12/8 TENNESSEE 12/12 SAN DIEGO 12/22 at HOUSTON 12/29 at OAKLAND 1/12 SAN DIEGO 1/19 NEW ENGLAND

Simulation Proj Edge? 23.1 24.6

FL -7 -3.5 -16 -10 -7.5 -26.5 -6.5 -11 -7 -7.5 -1 -5 -12.5 -9.5 -9.5 -10 -7.5 -5

OU 48 52.5 48.5 57.5 56 52.5 54.5 58.5 56 49 53.5 50.5 50.5 57 53 53.5 54.5 57

Bettors’ Rtng Proj Edge? 24.5 25.1

SCORE SU ATS OU 49-27 W W O 41-23 W W O 37-21 W P O 52-20 W W O 51-48 W L O 35-19 W L O 33-39 L L O 45-21 W W O 28-20 W W U 27-17 W W U 31-34 L L O 35-28 W W O 51-28 W W O 20-27 L L U 37-13 W W U 34-14 W W U 24-17 W L U 26-16 W W U

HEAD-TO-HEAD SERIES BREAKDOWN This year’s Super Bowl has an odd occurrence, as for just the third time in the last two decades the top seeds from each conference has advanced to the Big Game. By the middle of this season it was widely accepted Denver and Seattle were the best two teams from each conference and each held onto that title the rest of the season. The Broncos will be making their seventh appearance in the Super Bowl, with Seattle making their second trip. This is an unusual matchup in the sense these teams have not played each other in three years during the regular season because of the rotating non-conference schedule. Next fall, Denver travels to Seattle with the dates to be determined by the NFL. Otherwise, not much to go on, though these clubs are not complete strangers having met in Week 2 of the preseason where the Seahawks ran roughshod over the Broncos, 40-10 as 5.5-point home favorites. Long-time fans of each franchise are very familiar with one another, as these two franchises met annually from 1977 thru 2001, when realignment occurred and Seattle was transported back to the NFC West, which is where they started as an expansion team in 1976. Denver leads the all-time series 34-19 and has taken two of three since the Seahawks were relocated back to the NFC. The SU winner has won and covered the past three matchups. The teams have just one prior postseason connection, way back in 1983 in an AFC Wild Card conflict, in which Seattle sunk the Broncos 31-7. Because of infrequent meetings between these teams since 2002, and being division rivals previously, the total points portray how the NFL has changed. The opening total of 47.5 was only surpassed once by these teams since 1992, which was Dec. 27, 1998, when the closing number was 48. The next highest number during this time span was earlier that same year at 45.5. Otherwise, the OVER is 6-2 since 1999 and the average total score in the past 23 contests is 41.2 points. With Denver’s dismantling of New England, they are 4-6 and 3-7 ATS since 2000 in the postseason. As mentioned, this will be the Broncos seventh Super Bowl experience and they are 2-4 SU and ATS, having won the past two with current executive vice president of football operations John Elway as quarterback. Those back-to-back victories in 1998-99 ended a long history of failure or coming close for fans from the Mile High City.

6

The hiring of Elway to a front office position was a stroke of genius, as he was able to convince Peyton Manning that like himself, he has assembled a playoff ready team that just needed an elite quarterback to become a Super Bowl contender. Manning was probably sold on the Broncos because from a career standpoint, he had


Football Weekly SUPER BOWL XLVIII

SUPER BOWL XLVIII

accomplished almost everything possible and in the later years, the only thing that matters is winning and Elway did that in his final two seasons to go out on top. Denver’s record-setting offense made them unstoppable, racing to a 9-1 record and averaging over 40 points a contest. The offense has cooled in the playoffs, but the Broncos have faced better competition and also changed their style of offense, slowing the pace and being somewhat more conservative when scoring chances are certain and avoiding turnovers, which is how coach John Fox prefers to manage games. The switch is styles has accounted for the Denver on a current 5-0 UNDER run after being 11-2 OVER to start the season. Seattle’s offense and defense was clutch at the right times against San Francisco and they moved to 10-5 ATS and 8-7 in the postseason since 2003. The Seahawks have played for the Lombardi Trophy once previously in 2006, when they were also the top seed, but were a four-point underdog to Pittsburgh, a #6 seed. Seattle fans can recite what they perceived was a litany of bad calls against them and attribute these as the reason they lost 21-10 to the Steelers. This Seahawks team is grounded in the kind of football coach Pete Carroll grew up on, defense and running the ball. Carroll is the second-oldest head coach in the NFL at 62 and helped build the kind of domineering defense which is the best in the league in the NFL with no visible weakness. The defense has held opposing teams to 7.7 points below their average (almost 35% lower). Seattle’s offense is predicated on running with Marshawn Lynch, Russell Wilson making plays and no committing turnovers. While Wilson was under fire last in the season with his team’s offensive struggles, he made all the plays needed against 49ers and played with renewed confidence late in that game. This Super Bowl has a contrast like Manning (6’6) and Wilson (5’11) standing side by side and with the unfamiliarity, it could be special. VI PICKS

VI Jim

82-99 (45%) 27-28 (49%)*

VI Jason

86-95 (48%) 30-25 (55%)*

VI Paul

89-92 (49%) 32-25 (56%)*

Power Ratings 102-79 (56%)

Effective Forecaster Bettors Strength Ratings 94-87 (52%)

91-90 (50%)

85-96 (47%)

Consensus 97-84 (54%)

* – indicates Best Bet (BB)

February 2, 2014 - (101) SEATTLE vs. (102) DENVER Denver* Denver* Seattle* Seattle Seattle

Seattle

Seattle

Seattle

February 2, 2014 - (101) SEATTLE vs. (102) DENVER - Total OVER OVER UNDER OVER OVER

OVER

OVER

OVER

VI Jim says…If you ask me, this is the biggest quarterbacking mismatch in the Super Bowl in quite some time, bigger than even Brady vs. Delhomme several years ago. Of course the latter played well in that game and was able to lead his team to a backdoor cover, but it was still Brady that won the crown. Everything that has happened to Peyton Manning in recent years has pointed to this opportunity, his injury, the corresponding grueling rehab, his decision to leave Indianapolis for the chance at winning in Denver, the record numbers this season...It’s almost like a fairy tale. In my experience, all fairy tales have happy endings. There is no one who will prepare more effectively for this game than Manning, and as such he is the key player in the game. Obviously he has a strong supporting cast, one that has really stepped up in the postseason, but for my money, Manning is enough to trust the Broncos. Seattle will start fast, trying to “outphysical” Denver, but the Broncos offensive execution will be the difference in the end. I call for a double-digit Broncos’ win. VI Jason says…How sharp can early bettors be? For whatever reason, the pre-Super Bowl line heading into championship Sunday showed NFC -2.5. That line was under the general assumption that Seattle & Denver would be the eventual Super Bowl matchup. When books released the actual line at Seattle -1.5, bettors ran from it, backing the Broncos heavily, despite the Seahawks beating a highly respected 49ers team for the NFC crown. Perhaps bettors are fearing the fact that Seattle is having to travel cross country for this Super Bowl, and playing in unfamiliar conditions. It’s well-documented that Seattle is a much stronger team at home with the 12th man behind it. On the other sideline, Denver is a road –tested team that fares well away from home because of one player, Peyton Manning. He is unflappable. Manning’s prowess and the preparation I’m sure he will put into this contest leave me confident that Denver is the team to back here. They have also played well defensively down the stretch. Denver is a complete team ready to win a title, 31-20. VI Paul says…To be honest, I was pleased to see Seattle was switched from a favorite to an underdog, which gave me value on my choice and provide me a couple more wagering options. I look this matchup and see the Denver defense against the Seattle offense fairly even, with the Seahawks being able to exploit a few items. The Broncos have not faced many mobile quarterbacks of late and I assume OC Darrell Bevell will do whatever he can to get Russell Wilson on the edges to increase his effectiveness. I can see a few big plays from Seattle here that lead to scores. I do believe Denver will move the ball and have more total yards, but in the end the Seahawks pass rush and secondary will be the difference in a fantastic game. I’m not going overboard, just calling for Seattle to triumph 24-23.


7


PROP BET SELECTIONS

Football Weekly SEATTLE VS. DENVER - 1ST HALF LINE (DENVER -1.5)

PROP BET SELECTIONS

VI Jason says…There is a lot made of the “pressure” of the Super Bowl game, and how having veteran experience in such big games is critical to getting out of the gate fast, as it usually takes some time to get acclimated to the enormity of the situation. If such is the case, you have to figure that Denver has a big first half edge, as you should know by now that the Seahawks don’t have a single player on their roster with Super Bowl experience. My biggest concern here is for Seahawks QB Russell Wilson, as he not only has that lack of Super Bowl experience, he is also in just his second year as a starter and has been fighting off critics from the get go. He has a lot more to prove here than Manning, adding to the burden of pressure. Look for Denver to get the first score(s) and take a lead to the half.

VI Jim

VI Jason

VI Paul

Denver*

Denver*

Denver

Power Ratings

Effective Forecaster Bettors Strength Ratings

Consensus Denver

SEATTLE VS. DENVER - 1ST HALF TOTAL (OVER/UNDER 23.5)

VI Consensus says…With six of our seven selections for the entire Super Bowl game siding with OVER the posted total, it seems that Vegas Insider has a fairly heavy lean towards a high scoring game. Quite frankly, two of our three human experts projected a total in the 50’s, so were pleasantly surprised when the actual number settled in at around 47. Oddsmakers seem to be putting a lot into the locale of the game, dropping the number about 3-points off statistical averages for the potential conditions. We don’t believe those conditions will be impactful, and feel that a 14-10 type of first half score isn’t out of the question by any means. VI Jim, Jason, and Paul all say OVER 23.5 at the half.

VI Jim

VI Jason

VI Paul

OVER

OVER

OVER

Power Ratings


Consensus OVER

SEATTLE - TOTAL POINTS (OVER/UNDER 22.5)

VI Consensus says…VI Jim is the only one of our handicappers or strength ratings that think the Seahawks will not reach their posted total of 22.5 points on Sunday. Every other selection indicates OVER on this particular betting option. Let’s analyze why. First off, eight of Denver’s opponents this season reached the total, in many cases because they were forced to play catch-up in the second half. As such, the Denver secondary was tested often, and most of that came with star cornerback Chris Harris, now injured, on the field. Second, Seattle’s ability to score has been predicated much upon the type of game it has been involved in. In fact, after 12 games, the Seahawks were scoring 28.3 PPG, demonstrating the ability to score with anyone. Just recently, their defensive domination has led to lower scoring totals. We believe Seattle will have to open it up offensively to beat Denver, so expect more from their offense on Sunday.

VI Jim

VI Jason

VI Paul

Power Ratings


Consensus

UNDER

OVER

OVER

OVER

OVER

OVER

OVER

OVER

DENVER - TOTAL POINTS (OVER/UNDER 25.5)

VI Paul says…I fully expect Peyton Manning and the Broncos to have success moving the ball on Seattle’s defense since they do against everybody. However, once they reach the Seahawks 35-yard line, the field begins to shrink and I believe Pete Carroll’s defense will become even more aggressive. This will be the difference in the game where Denver ends up settling for field goals instead of reaching the end zone. Also, I am factoring in Seattle’s ability to run the ball and if there is one element which foils a Manning team, it is being on the sidelines when the other team has the pigskin. When it is all said and done Denver will reach the 23-point mark and unfortunately for them, come up just short, ending their dream season.

VI Jim

VI Jason

VI Paul

Power Ratings


Consensus

OVER*

OVER*

UNDER*

UNDER

UNDER

UNDER

UNDER

UNDER

8 THE GLOBAL LEADER IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION

Football Weekly SEATTLE - TOTAL RUSHING YARDS (OVER/UNDER 130.5)

VI Jim

VI Jason

VI Paul

UNDER

OVER

OVER

Power Ratings


PROP BET SELECTIONS

VI Jim says…If props are built on season averages, then just off the surface you have to wonder how Seattle’s 136.8 RYPG offense and Denver’s 101.6 RYPG allowed defense equates to 132.5? Seems like a bit of an overprice, and an unusual assumption that Seattle is just going to pound Marshawn Lynch down the Broncos’ throats. I just don’t see it that way, as this Denver defense has really stiffened up of late. After going through a rough patch in the middle of the season, the Broncos have yielded just 70 yards per game on the ground in their last four. Meanwhile, Seattle has averaged just 118 RYPG in the last eight after gaining 153.4 in the first 10 of the 2013 season. That is a significant dropoff as teams have started loading the line of scrimmage and making Russell Wilson beat them. Look for a similar plan here from Denver, as they game plan to put the ball more in Wilson’s arm, not his nor Lynch’s legs.

Consensus OVER

DENVER - TOTAL RUSHING YARDS (OVER/UNDER 100.5)

VI Jason says…You might be surprised to know that Seattle’s defense actually allowed 101 yards per game in the regular season, while Denver rushed for than 117 per game on the season. That average works out to a projection of about 108 yards for the Broncos. If only it were that easy, right? Unfortunately it’s not, and with the way the Seahawks bottled up everyone in the 49ers running game except QB Colin Kaepernick, I have to assume that Denver’s plan of attack will be to beat the Seahawks defense through the air. Manning is simply not going to pose any type of running threat. Plus, with a banged-up Knowshon Moreno and rookie Montee Ball as the primary running options, surely the onus of this game will fall on Manning’s right arm. I’ll be very surprised to see Denver reach the 100-yard mark, even if they are controlling the scoreboard.

VI Jim

VI Jason

VI Paul

UNDER

UNDER

UNDER

Power Ratings


Consensus UNDER

SEATTLE VS. DENVER - TEAM TO SCORE FIRST (DENVER -120)

VI Consensus says…After Anquan Boldin opened the scoring for the Ravens last year with a 13yard catch from Joe Flacco, the team that scored first in the Super Bowl has now gone on to win 31 of 47 games. That is a 66% winning percentage. All three of the VI handicappers think Denver will be on the board first on Sunday and the overall message that we got from them was that they felt the Broncos were just the more potent offense, worthy of the low -120 price associated with this prop. They also believe Denver is more likely to receive the kickoff if they win the coin toss, putting the ball in Peyton Manning’s hands first. Therefore, we at VI look for the likely first score, TD or field goal, to go to the Broncos.

VI Jim

VI Jason

VI Paul

Denver

Denver

Denver

Power Ratings


Consensus Denver

TOTAL NUMBER OF TOUCHDOWNS IN GAME (OVER/UNDER 5.5)

VI Paul says…Since I am calling for a 24-23 final score, I have Seattle reaching paydirt three times and Denver twice. I am convinced the Seahawks defensive line and linebackers might allow some yards, but they will also generate negative plays which will stall Manning and company and end up frustrating them. I really like how Russell Wilson ended the game against San Francisco in the second half and I believe he restored his confidence and he will make big plays with his arm and legs and do what he had done the first 12 weeks of the season. In final conclusion, I will be playing the UNDER 5.5 on touchdowns scored because of the Seattle defense and because its running game can control the clock.

VI Jim

VI Jason

VI Paul

OVER

OVER

UNDER

Power Ratings


Consensus OVER

9 VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION


Football Weekly

PROP BET SELECTIONS

SEATTLE VS. DENVER - TOTAL SACKS BY BOTH TEAMS (OVER/UNDER 4.5)

VI Jason says…The sack total prop seems to be taken directly from the stat pages of NFL.com. Between these two teams, there were 4.65 sacks per game in the regular season. That would suggest a slight lean to the OVER, but instead I will ride the UNDER on this opportunity for a few reasons. First, the offensive lines of these teams will have been pouring over film of the rushing schemes of the defense for two full weeks and will have their protections schemes in place. Secondly, Denver only allowed 20 sacks this season and there is no one better than Manning at getting rid of the ball quickly on blitzes. Thirdly, Russell Wilson is among the most elusive QB’s in the league. Props like this shouldn’t be figured by averages, more by particular situations. This situation says UNDER 4.5 sacks in the game.

VI Jim

VI Jason

VI Paul

OVER

UNDER*

UNDER

Power Ratings


Consensus UNDER

LONGEST FIELD GOAL OF THE GAME (OVER/UNDER 44.5 YARDS)

VI Jason says…You have to figure that the elements on Sunday are going to have an impact on the kicking games for each team. Wind, cold, and perhaps even precipitation are all things to be wary of in New York in February, so it kind of surprises me that the prop for longest field goal attempt is the same (44.5 yards) as last year’s game which was played indoors in New Orleans. Now obviously both of these kickers are capable of making a 45 yard field goal in even tough conditions, so this is by no means a lock, but I have to believe that this game being in the Meadowlands calls for a bit lower number. I’ll take UNDER 44.5 yards.

VI Jim

VI Jason

VI Paul

UNDER

UNDER

OVER

Power Ratings


Consensus UNDER

SEATTLE - RUSSELL WILSON TOTAL PASSING YARDS (OVER/UNDER 199.5)

VI Paul says…Count me as convinced Russell Wilson will return to being the player he was the first three-quarters of the regular season. His fourth quarter, fourth down touchdown pass to Jermaine Kearse seemed to lift the burden off his shoulders and he played excellent football the rest of the way. Seattle offensive coaches will an effort to get Wilson out of the pocket, where he is most dangerous. Often this season, this is where the Seahawks biggest passing plays have come, with Wilson scrambling and his wide receivers running to open areas and he finds them for long completions. This is where Wilson will pick a great deal of his yardage. I would also look for TE Zack Miller to catch more than his usual number of passes, because the Broncos linebackers are week in pass protection. Wilson will end up with approximately 220 or more passing yards.

VI Jim

VI Jason

VI Paul

OVER*

OVER

OVER*

Power Ratings


Consensus OVER

SEATTLE - RICHARD SHERMAN TOTAL SOLO & ASSISTED TACKLES (OVER/UNDER 3.5)

VI Jim says…at the risk of inferring that Richard Sherman is a “mediocre” cornerback, I firmly believe that the Broncos will go at him much more often than the 49ers did in the NFC championship, if not only for the sole reason of more volume in passing attempts. It sounds as if Sherman will be guarding Demaryius Thomas for much of Sunday’s game, and there is no way that Thomas will be ignored by Manning, since Thomas usually gets better than 10 targets per game in big contests. It figures that much of this game will be played in the Seattle secondary when Denver has the ball, so I’ll assume that Sherman is involved in more tackles than his average of 3.0.

VI Jim

VI Jason

VI Paul

OVER*

UNDER

OVER*

Power Ratings


Consensus OVER


Football Weekly DENVER - PEYTON MANNING TOTAL PASSING YARDS (OVER/UNDER 290.5)

VI Jim

VI Jason

VI Paul

OVER

OVER*

UNDER

Power Ratings


PROP BET SELECTIONS

VI Jason says…if the 342.3 yards per game that Peyton Manning put up in the regular season weren’t enough to convince bettors that he is fully capable of dissecting the Seattle defense this week, perhaps the 330 per game he put up in the postseason are? Manning is a big game QB, no if’s, and’s, or butt’s about it. Seattle may fool him once or twice, but he will overcome. There is no better passer around who fully utilizes all of his weapons either. If the Seahawks take away Thomas or Welker, it will be Decker or the tight end’s. If those are taken away, look for the running backs to get involved. Either way, I don’t see Manning underperforming in this biggest of all games after the season he had. 300+ for #18.

Consensus OVER

DENVER - DEMARYIUS THOMAS TOTAL RECEIVING YARDS (OVER/UNDER 75.5)

VI Jim says…The old saying indicates that the best players will show up for the biggest games. Well, a lot has been said about Demaryius Thomas getting his chance to prove himself in this Super Bowl matchup, if he hasn’t done so already. With a 7-catch, 134-yard performance against New England in the AFC title game, Thomas showed why he is such a huge part of the Denver game plan. He truly is Peyton Manning’s go-to guy, and sure the Broncos and Manning are going to find ways to get him the ball, even if Richard Sherman is on him. Thomas is a physical specimen unlike few others in the NFL, and he averaged 89.9 YPG in 18 contests this season. Look for a big game from Demaryius.

VI Jim

VI Jason

VI Paul

OVER*

OVER

OVER

Power Ratings


Consensus OVER

MORE RUSHING YARDS IN GAME - LYNCH VS MORENO (LYNCH -20.5 YARDS)

VI Paul says…I am playing this prop is for a couple fundamental reasons. First, Marshawn Lynch is a tremendous between the tackles runner and is one of the best in the NFL in picking up yards after he’s been hit or adding yards after contact. Knowshon Moreno had his best season as a runner and was able to stay healthy, but his best runs come through the B or C-gaps and with Seattle’s speed to run down plays, I do not see him having many large gains in this contest. Also, as compared to other defenses playing Denver for the pass and having Manning check to a run where Moreno has more room to run, Seattle plays it straight which will limit his chances. I will forecast a 30-yard disparity in this head to head encounter with Lynch the winner.

VI Jim

VI Jason

VI Paul

Lynch

Lynch*

Lynch*

Power Ratings


Consensus Lynch

11 VISIT VEGASINSIDER.COM FOR THE LATEST IN SPORTS GAMING INFORMATION


Football Weekly

PROP BET SELECTIONS

PLAYER TO SCORE FIRST TD

Marshawn Lynch (SEA) RB +500 Eric Decker (DEN) WR +800 Wes Welker (DEN) WR +800 Demaryius Thomas (DEN) WR +900 Julius Thomas (DEN) TE +900 Knowshon Moreno (DEN) RB +900 Percy Harvin (SEA) WR +1200 Golden Tate (SEA) WR +1400 Russell Wilson (SEA) QB +1400 Doug Baldwin (SEA) WR +1600 Montee Ball (DEN) RB +1600 Jacob Tamme (DEN) TE +2200 Zach Miller (SEA) TE +2500 Robert Turbin (SEA) RB +3300 Peyton Manning (DEN) QB +4000 Field +600 No TD scored in the game +6600 VI Jim says…There are a lot of capable players for the first TD prop offering, but I have to look at a specific area to target, that being the Denver receiving corps. The Broncos have been getting out fast in the postseason, scoring the first two touchdowns in both the win over the Chargers and the AFC title clincher against the Patriots. In both cases it was Manning hitting on short touchdown strikes to get his team on the board. I look for that same type of score this time around, as teams generally lean on their strengths in a game of this magnitude. Only on Sunday, with all the focus on the Broncos wideouts this week, I’ll turn to TE Julius Thomas to reach paydirt.

VI Jim

VI Jason

VI Paul

J. Thomas

Welker

Lynch

Power Ratings


Consensus -

PLAYER TO BE NAMED MVP

Peyton Manning (DEN) QB +120 Russell Wilson (SEA) QB +375 Marshawn Lynch (SEA) RB +450 Demaryius Thomas (DEN) WR +1800 Knowshon Moreno (DEN) RB +2000 Percy Harvin (SEA) WR +2000 Wes Welker (DEN) WR +2000 Eric Decker (DEN) WR +2500 Golden Tate (SEA) WR +2500 Julius Thomas (DEN) TE +2500 Richard Sherman (SEA) +2500 Doug Baldwin (SEA) WR +3300 Earl Thomas (SEA) S +4000 Champ Bailey (DEN) CB +6600 Montee Ball (DEN) RB +6600 Field (Any Other Player) +1000 VI Paul says…This is always a tough call but my money will be on Marshawn Lynch. If there is a way to describe his running style I would way it is – angry. Lynch seldom goes down on first contact, almost always squeezing out additional yardage. He’s a consistent runner and often is at his best when the defense starts to tire and he busts off a few longer runs. Lynch will also be fresher with two weeks between games and if you remember the last time this occurred, he rumbled for 140 yards against New Orleans. I would also expect Seattle coaches to have slight variation in their offense and find a way to iso the Seahawks running back with a blocker or two in the passing game to catch Denver off-guard. I’ll say Lynch will have 140 or more total yards and walk away with MVP award.

VI Jim

VI Jason

VI Paul

Manning

Manning

Lynch*

Power Ratings


Consensus Manning


Football Weekly

For the Super Bowl this week, VegasInsider Football Weekly breaks down the positions one segment at a time and rates each area to compare how a spread number could be reached. Quarterback – Is this Peyton Manning’s swan song? There are persistent rumors that if Denver wins the Super Bowl, this could be it for Manning, not wanting to perhaps cause permanent damage to his neck. What a way it would be to go out with a record 59 touchdown passes this season compared to 11 interceptions. As per usual, Manning’s preparation and game management skills are second to none, but he will face quite a challenge against a salty defense that can get in his face and lock up receivers. Russell Wilson overcame early mistakes against San Francisco and played with more confidence in the second half, which for his team’s sake hopefully allows him to play his game. Seattle coaches will try and get him on the edges again where he’s most effective to make big plays and move the chains. Wilson being too ampedup has to be a concern. VIW View – Denver 7-points Running Backs and Receivers – The Broncos have the best collection of pass catchers in the game this season with the addition of Wes Welker. He and tight end Julius Thomas both know how to beat man coverage in the seven to 10-yard range and are experts in finding holes in zones. Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are exceptional down the field targets and both know how to use their bodies to shield defenders. Knowshon Moreno piled up a 1,000-yard rushing season and added over 500 yards receiving on 60 catches, proving his versatility. Marshawn Lynch is a “beast” as he proved in the NFC title game with 70 percent of his 109 rushing yards coming after contact against the 49ers stout defense. He will be the table-setter for the Seahawks in this matchup. The Seattle receivers do not compare with Denver’s, but Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin both have the ability to catch ball at the highest point and make big plays. Each also knows where to find open spots on the field when plays break down, which leads to huge gains from Wilson heaves. If Percy Harvin is the wild card and even in his brief appearance against New Orleans in the playoffs, it showed he could be a huge factor. If Harvin is 100 percent to go, he can be extremely effective and be worth 1.5 points for his offense. VIW View – Denver 5-points (Seattle with Harvin, Broncos 3.5-points) Offensive Line – Both offensive lines are at their best when they are determined to be physical and move the line of scrimmage. The Seattle contingent is better run blockers and this is how their offense rolls best. This is not to say Denver’s line is inferior, it is just the Broncos offense is more geared to the pass and running the ball is in part a function of how many players Manning sees in the box. Denver’s pass protection is definitely better and has to be with Manning a pocket-passer. The Seahawks pass protection has been average at best, but this is due to little cohesiveness because of injuries across the board. VIW View – Denver 1.5-points

PROPOSITION BETTING

PROPOSITION BETTING BREAKDOWN

Defensive Front 7 – No team is football has the depth and versatility of Seattle in the defensive line. Defensive tackle Brandon Mebane holds down the fort in the middle, while an assortment of pass rushers like Red Bryant or Michael Bennett collapse pockets with great regularity. The Seahawks linebackers all have tremendous speed and can run down or close on any opposing players. Middle linebacker Bobby Wagner is the best of the group; however, each linebacker will get hung up if the opposing O-Line can reach the second level. When Jack Del Rio joined Denver as defensive coordinator, he was able to bring Terrance Knighton over from Jacksonville and he solidified the Broncos run defense. Knighton could be a very important factor with Seattle inconsistent with its interior offensive linemen. Shaun Phillips has upgraded the Denver pass rush, but they are dependent on everyone doing their job to truly being disruptive. The Broncos present collection of linebackers is mostly average workman-like players. Seattle might feature tight end Zack Miller more because the Denver linebackers are weak in coverage and can be exposed. VIW View – Seattle 5-points Secondary – The Legion of Boom has no apparent weakness for Seattle. It does not hurt that Richard Sherman is the best corner in the game and Earl Thomas is the best safety for starters. Corner Byron Maxwell has more than “held up” for suspended Brandon Browner and is a better athlete. Safety Kam Chancellor is as close to enforcer in today’s game. Hard to argue with those that say this is one of the top secondaries in decades. Denver has a lot of age in its secondary and will be asked to hold up. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is Denver’s best corner cover, but Seattle’s receivers are not necessarily a match for what he does best. This group will have to be very alert if Wilson breaks out of the pocket. VIW View – Seattle 7-points Special Teams – Both kickers missed a grand total of three field goals and both kick outdoors and are used to cold weather. Each punter does their job effectively, but one difference, Denver allows 9.8 yards per punt return, while Seattle concedes 3.9. VIW View – Essentially a Push Coaching – Each of the head coaches are conservative by nature. Pete Carroll and John Fox are very concerned about limiting turnovers by their quarterbacks. That does not mean they will not take chances as we have seen in the postseason, however, the moves are calculated with a low–risk high-reward consequence. VIW View – Push Officiating – Our research finds Carl Paganelli will be the umpire and he typically has his flag at the ready for holding calls. In 10 playoff games, there have been only seven pass interference calls, which go to the advantage of the defenders. With Seattle’s size and skill in the secondary, looser calls has to give them an edge. If the game is called the way it has been throughout the postseason, all receivers will have to match physicality. VIW View – Seattle 1.5-points Intangibles – Denver has given the impression of peaking at the right time and Peyton Manning is certainly set up for the storybook ending by winning this game. Nonetheless, if great defense trumps great offense, Seattle becomes the team of choice. VIW View – Denver 0.5 points Actual Line - Denver by 2.5 VIW View – Seattle by 1 (with Harvin)


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FOOTBALL LINE MOVES

Football Weekly

FOOTBALL LINE MOVES NFL – (101) SEATTLE VS. (102) DENVER 6:30 E FOX

The Twitter and Facebook world was a flutter several minutes after Seattle and knocked of San Francisco in the NFC Championship game to send the Seahawks to the Super Bowl for a second time. And no it was just not about Richard Sherman voicing his thoughtful views on himself and other topics to the bemusement of Erin Andrews, it was the remarkable line movement of the side action for the Big Game. Though the NFC held a modest 34-30 over the AFC for the season in nonconference play, the final 14 weeks they were dominant with a 31-19 record. Oddsmakers no doubt took that into consideration and the fact Seattle was the top defensive team in the NFL. Because defense usually trumps offense, the Seahawks were installed as -1.5 to -1 favorite from Nevada to the offshore sportsbooks. But like the stock market, there was a selling frenzy on Seattle, like some sort of insidertrading ordeal and for the next 45 minutes on Twitter it was like this. Super Bowl now a Pick……Denver moved to 1-point favorite……Denver moved to 2-point favorite……Holy _ _ _ _ Denver now a 3-point favorite. That is when the madness ended and by the end of the evening, the Broncos were at -2.5.

was backing Denver. There are plenty of reasons to think this is the right choice with Peyton Manning running the most prolific offense in NFL history and the Broncos defense has looked better down the stretch and limited some quality offenses in San Diego and New England. The Broncos were also 4-0 SU against the NFC; however, that does not carry much weight since it was playing the NFC Least. As this product went to be published Denver was a 3-to-1 choice on bets placed. As mentioned, Seattle does have the best defense in the league and at least on paper matches up favorably with Denver’s strength with a secondary supposedly for the ages and the depth they have in the defensive line reminds one of the number of people in China. Since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970, there has been four previous Super Bowls matching the league’s best offense against the best defense in the NFL. The defense is 3-1 SU and ATS, with winners like the New York Giants (1991), San Francisco (1985), and Pittsburgh (1979). The only top offense team to win was the 1990 49ers, who crushed Denver 55-10. The total has been hovering at 47 or 47.5 and football bettors are waiting for a weather forecast from New Jersey for Ground Hog’s Day before making many wagers on the total. If one prefers Denver, the OVER would make sense or if the preference is Seattle, the UNDER is a likely choice. For our money, defense wins championships. VIW Take – Seattle covers

Once sanity was restored, it was clear the wagering public and some very sharp money


Football Weekly

With SEC’s reign officially over as football champions, more possibilities potentially open up with the new playoff format. Florida State has returned as the king of the mountain in college football and with Jameis Winston and roster full of talent at virtually all positions, Jimbo Fisher’s crew is the early favorite to repeat according to Sportsbook.ag at +300, but they will have an intriguing opener with Oklahoma State in Dallas, plus Notre Dame and Florida visit Tallahassee this upcoming season. VegasInsider Weekly pulls out the Magic 8-Ball and gives consideration to what teams might be on the rise and those who could take a step or two backward.

WE SEE IMPROVEMENT IN YOUR FUTURE

Nobody quite knew what make of Oklahoma this past year. They looked lost in defeats to Texas and Baylor, being manhandled. However, they closed with impressive road wins at Kansas State and at rival Oklahoma State and stunned an Alabama team in the Sugar Bowl which was not flat, just outplayed. If quarterback Trevor Knight can throw anywhere near with the same accuracy he did against the Crimson Tide, the offense will be in great shape and though a couple of defensive studs have graduated in Norman, Bob Stoops should be able to assemble a very good defense. Look for the Sooners to probably be Top 5 material and having a very favorable schedule. Off a very disappointing season by their standards, Oregon will approach 2014 as unfinished business. The first bit of great news for the Ducks was the return of QB Marcus Mariota and the majority of weapons will still be in place for the offense. The defense has taken some hits including the retirement of DC Nick Aliota, but if coach Mark Helfrich can find bigger defensive tackles to plug the run better, the Ducks will be flying high again. Oregon is the second betting choice behind Florida State at +600. The Ducks will host the Rose Bowl champions Michigan State on Sept. 6, but will miss USC and Arizona State. Watch out for UCLA this next season! Like Oregon, the return of quarterback Brett Hundley keeps the offense headed in the right direction and the offensive which was forced to start three freshmen last year due to injury, turns into a strength next season, with potentially nine different players who could legitimately start. This for an offense which averaged 36.9 points a game with a banged up line. Coach Jim Mora’s recruiting efforts are bringing in larger players who still can run and the defense should only improve. Playing Oregon, USC and Stanford at home will be a

Ole Miss and Houston will not be national title contenders, yet there is every reason to believe they will be a bigger factor in their respective conferences. The Rebels were awfully inconsistent last season in putting together an 8-5 record. QB Bo Wallace and the offensive line were the biggest reasons for the offense underachieving and they should both be better in 2014. This will be the year coach Hugh Freeze sensational 2013 recruiting class starts to pay dividends.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL 2014

A LOOK AT COLLEGE FOOTBALL 2014

plus and the most difficult road challenge is at Arizona State and somewhat neutral matchup with Texas in the Lone Star State suggests the Bruins are Top 10 material.

The Cougars started 7-1 with a young team and true freshman quarterback in John O’Korn, who performed brilliantly. Their four regular season losses were all by seven points or less and they return the entire defensive front seven and both safeties. Houston will be a force in the AAC.

THE FUTURE LOOKS UNSETTLED

After an unexpected campaign which had Missouri as the SEC East champions, the Tigers revert back to the norm with too many heavy defensive losses that will impossible to overcome. We really the what QB Maty Mauk can provide on offense, unfortunately with a lesser stop troops, SEC trips to South Carolina, Florida, Texas A&M and Tennessee, it will be too much to overcome and the Tigers regress. Clemson is losing nearly every important gamechanger on offense and defense which sets the Tigers back. Dabo Swinney has recruited well enough for the cupboard is not empty, just too many massive losses to overcome in one year. This season, the Tigers will visit Georgia and Florida State and though the Palmetto State rivalry game with hated South Carolina will be at home, it has not mattered where Clemson has played the Gamecocks lately, the results have been losses. The hiring of Bobby Petrino was brilliant by Louisville with the departure of Charlie Strong. Nonetheless, the Cardinals chances of making major bowl are remote with the loss of Teddy Bridgewater, numerous key pieces from a stout Louisville defense and transporting from the Big East/AAC to the ACC will further hinder growth. Also, let’s not assume Petrino is a sure thing, as his first year at each coaching stop has been uneventful with improvement coming afterwards. Texas A&M and Oklahoma State could go backwards for different reasons. Yes, Kevin Sumlin and his Aggies squad have an impressive recruiting class, but Johnny Manziel was a one of kind. Add in trips to South Carolina, Miss. State, Alabama and Auburn and the task will be too daunting. The Cowboys lose too many pieces from their best defense in years and the Big 12 road is horrific next season along with opener versus Florida State.


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