Feb 8, 2018 - slow pace of recovery in exports in late-2017 and lower production in 2018. Livestock, poultry, and egg tr
ISSN: 1554-9089
Office of the Chief Economist
WASDE - 574
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Agricultural Marketing Service Farm Service Agency
Economic Research Service Foreign Agricultural Service
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
February 8, 2018
WHEAT: Projected 2017/18 U.S. ending stocks are raised this month by 20 million bushels as higher food use is more than offset by lower exports, while export forecasts for several major competitors are increased. Estimated food use is increased by 5 million bushels to 955 million, based on the NASS Flour Milling Products report, which indicated higher-than-expected use in the first half of 2017/18. Additionally, implied flour extraction rates were lower in the second quarter, as compared to last year, and a continuation of this trend is expected to support increased wheat for food usage into the second half of 2017/18. No other supply or use categories are changed this month. Based on NASS prices reported to date and price expectations for the rest of the marketing year, the projected season-average farm price (SAFP) remains unchanged at the midpoint of $4.60 per bushel. However, the projected SAFP range is narrowed by 5 cents at both ends of the range to $4.55 to $4.65. Global 2017/18 wheat supplies increased, primarily on higher production forecasts for Argentina and Ukraine. Argentina’s wheat production increased by 500,000 tons to 18.0 million based on higher-than-expected yields from the later harvest stages. Ukraine wheat production increased 481,000 tons to 27.0 million based on updated government data. World 2017/18 trade is raised this month as higher exports from Russia, Argentina, and Canada more than offset reduced exports from the EU and the United States. Projected imports are increased for Indonesia and several African countries while reduced for India, the EU, Iran, Brazil, and Mexico. Indonesia’s imports are raised 1.0 million tons to 12.5 million on increases for both food and feed use. Indonesia is now the leading global wheat importer, surpassing Egypt, the traditional leader. Total world consumption is projected 3.1 million tons higher, primarily on greater usage from Indonesia and China. Projected global ending stocks are 1.9 million tons lower this month at 266.1 million but remain significantly higher than a year ago. COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for increased exports and reduced stocks. Exports are raised 125 million bushels, reflecting U.S. price competitiveness and reduced exports for Argentina and Ukraine. With no other use changes, U.S. corn ending stocks are lowered 125 million bushels from last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is projected at $3.30 per bushel, up 5 cents at the midpoint. The U.S. sorghum supply, use, and midpoint price forecasts are unchanged relative to last month.
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Global coarse grain production for 2017/18 is projected 2.3 million tons lower to 1,321.9 million. This month’s foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, greater consumption, and lower stocks relative to last month. Global corn production is lowered 2.8 million tons largely reflecting reductions for Argentina and Ukraine. For Argentina, persistent heat and dryness during January and early February reduced yield prospects for early-planted corn in key central growing areas. Production is lowered for Ukraine based on the latest official statistics. Small increases for Moldova, Mexico, Bangladesh, and Thailand are partly offsetting. Barley production is raised for Argentina. Mexico sorghum production is increased. Major global trade changes for 2017/18 include higher projected corn exports for the United States and Brazil, with reductions for Argentina and Ukraine. Corn imports are raised for Turkey, the EU, and Brazil. Foreign corn ending stocks are down from last month, mostly reflecting reductions for Argentina and Ukraine that more than offset increases for Mexico, Brazil, and Turkey. Global corn ending stocks, at 203.1 million tons, are down 3.5 million from last month. RICE: The U.S. 2017/18 rice supply and demand estimates are unchanged this month. The projected season-average farm price for all rice is lowered 10 cents at the midpoint of the range. The reduction is primarily attributed to lower-than-expected long-grain prices reported by NASS. Global 2017/18 rice supplies are lowered 1.3 million tons on reduced beginning stocks and lower production. Total world production is only down fractionally primarily on a smaller Bangladesh crop. Exports are up 1.0 million tons to a record 46.8 million. Export changes are led by a 0.5-million-ton increase for India and a 0.3-million-ton increase for Burma. Imports are raised 0.8 million tons for Bangladesh and 0.5 million for Indonesia. Total global use is raised 0.6 million tons for 2016/17 but reduced 1.0 million for 2017/18. For the 2017/18 marketing year, consumption is lowered 0.2 million tons each for Bangladesh, Burma, and India, while it is raised 0.3 million for China. Ending stocks are down 0.3 million tons but remain the highest since 2000/01. OILSEEDS: This month’s 2017/18 U.S. soybean outlook is for reduced exports and increased ending stocks. Soybean exports for 2017/18 are projected at 2,100 million bushels, down 60 million from last month, reflecting shipments and sales through January and increased export competition on larger supplies in Brazil. With soybean crush unchanged, soybean ending stocks are raised 60 million bushels to 530 million. The U.S. season-average soybean price range for 2017/18 is projected at $8.90 to $9.70 per bushel, unchanged at the midpoint. Soybean oil prices are forecast at 31 to 34 cents per pound, down 1 cent at the midpoint. Soybean meal prices are projected at $305 to $335 per short ton, up $5 at the midpoint. Global oilseed production for 2017/18 is projected at 578.6 million tons, down 1.5 million with lower soybean production partly offset by higher cottonseed. Soybean production is reduced 1.7 million tons to 346.9 million. Soybean production for Brazil is projected at 112.0 million tons, up 2.0 million, as favorable weather throughout the growing season
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has raised yield prospects. Argentina production is reduced 2.0 million tons to 54.0 million on lower harvested area and reduced yields resulting from periods of unseasonable warmth and dryness. Soybean production is also reduced for several other countries including Paraguay, Bolivia, India, Ukraine, and South Africa. Other changes include reduced sunflowerseed production for South Africa, increased cottonseed production for China, and lower cottonseed production for India. Global oilseed crush for 2017/18 is projected at 487.5 million tons, down 1.0 million. Reduced soybean crush for Argentina and India accounts for most of the change. Global oilseed stocks are projected lower with reduced soybean stocks for Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay, and India more than offsetting an increase for the United States. SUGAR: Total sugar supply for 2017/18 is decreased by 57,469 short tons, raw value (STRV). Cane sugar production for 2017/18 is reduced 44,356 STRV to 4.011 million. Based on industry reporting, processing in Louisiana continued later than usual into late January, and production for the crop year totaled 1.859 million STRV, up 38,644 from last month. This gain is more than offset by a processor-forecast reduction in Florida cane sugar production of 83,000 STRV. Beet sugar production is reduced by 37,800 STRV to 5.219 million. Although the sucrose recovery from sliced sugarbeets in December, as reported in Sweetener Market Data (SMD), is down significantly from the previous month, most of the reduction is expected to be made up based on processor-sourced information. Increased beginning stocks of 24,687 STRV offset some of the reduced production, as 2016/17 imported sugar originally recorded as a direct consumption import was revised in SMD as raw sugar imported by a refiner. Deliveries for human consumption for 2017/18 are reduced by 75,000 STRV to 12.325 million, based on a slower than expected pace in the fourth quarter of 2017. The residually determined change in projected ending stocks for 2017/18 is 1.842 million STRV, up 17,531. The ending stocks-to-use ratio is 14.6 percent, up from 14.4 percent last month. In Mexico, deliveries for human consumption are reduced by 86,626 metric tons (MT) to offset an increase in high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) consumption, as per capita sweetener consumption in Mexico remains equal to the level of last year. The HFCS increase is based on a higher pace-to-date in the fourth quarter of 2017 and expected to continue for the rest of the marketing year, albeit at a slower pace. Stocks are projected at 22.0 percent of consumption to meet needs before the start of production in 2018/19, implying a reduction of 19,058 MT. Exports to non-U.S. destinations are residually projected at 276,981 MT, an increase of 105,683 over last month. LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: The 2018 forecast for total red meat and poultry production is raised from last month, as higher forecast broiler production more than offsets lower beef, pork, and turkey production. The beef production forecast is reduced from the previous month, as expected lower second-half beef production more than offsets higher first-half beef production. NASS’s Cattle report, released January 31, estimated the U.S. cattle inventory continued to increase for the fourth consecutive year, but the report also indicated that fewer numbers of cattle were being held outside
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feedlots. The number of cattle placed on feed in the first part of 2018 is expected to be lower, resulting in lower marketings and beef production in the second half of the year. The January NASS Cattle on Feed report showed year-over-year increases in placement numbers in December, implying higher numbers of fed cattle will likely be marketed during the spring quarter. Cattle weights are raised for the first half of 2018 on current weight patterns. Pork production is reduced on the pace of slaughter to date. Broiler production is raised largely on continued growth in bird weights. First-half turkey production is reduced on hatchery data. First-quarter egg production is reduced on a slower laying rate. Estimates of 2017 meat and egg production are adjusted to reflect December data. For 2018, beef exports are raised as demand from several key trading partners is expected to remain robust; no change is made to the beef import forecast. Pork import and export forecasts are unchanged from last month. First-half broiler export forecasts are raised on expectations of strong demand while turkey exports are reduced on the slow pace of recovery in exports in late-2017 and lower production in 2018. Livestock, poultry, and egg trade estimates for 2017 are adjusted to reflect December trade data. Fed-cattle prices for the first half of 2018 are raised from last month on continued demand strength. First-quarter hog and broiler price forecasts are raised from last month on stronger prices to date. The first-quarter turkey price is also raised, but the annual forecast remains unchanged. Egg price forecasts are also raised on continued robust demand. The milk production forecast for 2018 is lowered from last month on expectations of slower growth in milk per cow. The 2018 fat basis export and import forecasts are unchanged from the previous month. On a skim-solids basis, the import forecast is raised slightly while the export forecast is raised on strong global demand for skim milk powder, lactose, and whey products. The 2017 production, trade, and stock estimates are adjusted to reflect December data. Annual product price forecasts for cheese and butter are lowered from the previous month as demand remains relatively weak. No changes are made to the annual prices for NDM and whey. The Class III price is lowered on the cheese price projection while the Class IV price is down on a lower butter price forecast. The all milk price is forecast is reduced to $15.70 to $16.40 per cwt. COTTON: The 2017/18 U.S. cotton supply and demand forecasts show slightly lower exports and higher ending stocks relative to last month. Production and domestic mill use are unchanged. The export forecast is lowered 300,000 bales to 14.5 million based on a lagging pace of shipments to date. Ending stocks are now estimated at 6.0 million bales, equivalent to 34 percent of total disappearance. The marketing year average price received by producers is projected to average between 67 and 71 cents per pound, unchanged from January’s range. The 2017/18 world cotton forecasts include slightly higher production, lower consumption, and higher ending stocks. World production is 400,000 bales higher than last month, as
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higher estimates for China, Brazil, and South Africa offset lower expectations for India and Australia. Global consumption is forecast 325,000 bales lower, as decreases for India and Thailand offset an increase for Vietnam. World ending stocks are projected 760,000 bales higher as a 1.1-million-bale increase in China’s projected ending stocks— and higher U.S. stocks—offsets declines for India, Australia, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Vietnam.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Seth D. Meyer, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees.
APPROVED BY:
ROBERT JOHANSSON SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE DESIGNATE
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INTERAGENCY COMMODITY ESTIMATES COMMITTEES
Note: The World Agricultural Outlook Board reviews and approves the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. The Board’s analysts chair the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees (ICECs) that prepare the monthly report.
Wheat: William Chambers, ICEC Chair, WAOB, E-mail:
[email protected] Jennifer Bond, ERS; Andrew Sowell, FAS; Pete Riley, FSA. Rice: William Chambers, ICEC Chair, WAOB, E-mail: wchambers @oce.usda.gov Nathan Childs, ERS; Rachel Trego, FAS; Sherrie Grimm, FSA. Feed Grains: Michael Jewison, ICEC Chair, WAOB, E-mail:
[email protected] Tom Capehart, ERS; Yoonhee Macke, FAS; Thomas Gajnak, FSA. Oilseeds: Keith Menzie, ICEC Chair, WAOB, E-mail:
[email protected] Mark Ash, ERS; Bill George, FAS; Susan Proper, FSA. Cotton: Stephen MacDonald, ICEC Chair, WAOB, E-mail:
[email protected] Leslie Meyer, ERS; James Johnson, FAS; Erik Dohlman, FSA. Sugar: Stephen Haley, ICEC Chair, WAOB, E-mail:
[email protected] Michael McConnell, ERS; Ron Lord, FAS; Barbara Fecso, FSA. Meat Animals: Shayle Shagam, ICEC Chair, WAOB, E-mail:
[email protected] Sherry Wise, AMS; Mildred Haley, ERS; Lindsay Kuberka, FAS; Ryan Pfirrmann-Powell, FSA. Poultry: Shayle Shagam, ICEC Chair, WAOB, E-mail:
[email protected] Larry Haller, AMS; Sean Ramos, ERS; Claire Mezoughem, FAS; Milton Madison, FSA. Dairy: Shayle Shagam, ICEC Chair, WAOB, E-mail:
[email protected] Carolyn Liebrand, AMS; Jerry Cessna, ERS; Paul Kiendl, FAS; Milton Madison, FSA.
In 2018, the WASDE report will be released on Mar 8, Apr 10, May 10, Jun 12, Jul 12, Aug 10, Sep 12, Oct 11, Nov 8, and Dec 11.
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T A B L E OF C O N T E N T S Page Highlights............................................................................................................. 1 Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees .................................................... 6 World & U.S. Supply & Use for Grains .................................................................. 8 World & U.S. Supply & Use for Cotton .................................................................. 9 World & U.S. Supply & Use for Oilseeds ............................................................ 10 U.S. Wheat Supply & Use .................................................................................. 11 U.S. Wheat Supply & Use by Class .................................................................... 11 U.S. Feed Grain & Corn Supply & Use ............................................................... 12 U.S. Sorghum, Barley & Oats Supply & Use ....................................................... 13 U.S. Rice Supply & Use ..................................................................................... 14 U.S. Soybeans & Products Supply & Use ........................................................... 15 U.S. Sugar Supply & Use ................................................................................... 16 Mexico Sugar Supply and Use ........................................................................... 16 U.S. Cotton Supply & Use .................................................................................. 17 World Wheat Supply & Use ................................................................................ 18 World Coarse Grains Supply & Use.................................................................... 20 World Corn Supply & Use .................................................................................. 22 World Rice Supply & Use ................................................................................... 24 World Cotton Supply & Use ................................................................................ 26 World Soybean Supply & Use ............................................................................ 28 World Soybean Meal Supply & Use .................................................................... 29 World Soybean Oil Supply & Use ....................................................................... 30 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production .......................................................... 31 U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products .......................................................... 31 U.S. Meats Supply and Use ............................................................................... 32 U.S. Egg Supply & Use ...................................................................................... 33 U.S. Milk Supply and Use .................................................................................. 33 U.S. Dairy Prices ............................................................................................... 34 Reliability Tables................................................................................................ 35 Related USDA Reports ...................................................................................... 38 Metric Conversion Factors ................................................................................. 38 Electronic Access and Subscriptions ...................................................................... 40
February 2018 WASDE - 574 - 8 World and U.S Supply and Use for Grains 1/ Million Metric Tons Output
Total Supply
Trade 2/
Total Use 3/
Ending Stocks
2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
2468.53 2603.25
3061.44 3229.94
376.64 430.48
2434.75 2577.42
626.69 652.52
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2017/18 (Proj.) Jan 2017/18 (Proj.) Feb
2565.94 2564.51
3218.54 3217.04
415.58 420.71
2575.68 2580.11
642.86 636.93
World Total Grains 4/
Wheat
Coarse Grains 5/
Rice, milled
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2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
735.31 750.44
953.26 992.01
172.84 183.29
711.68 739.37
241.58 252.64
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2017/18 (Proj.) Jan 2017/18 (Proj.) Feb
757.01 758.25
1009.72 1010.89
180.85 181.69
741.70 744.79
268.02 266.10
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2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
1260.26 1366.03
1507.43 1618.52
163.46 200.68
1254.95 1355.87
252.48 262.65
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2017/18 (Proj.) Jan 2017/18 (Proj.) Feb
1324.22 1321.94
1586.00 1584.58
188.91 192.18
1352.23 1354.54
233.77 230.04
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2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
472.96 486.78
600.75 619.42
40.34 46.51
468.11 482.17
132.63 137.24
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2017/18 (Proj.) Jan 2017/18 (Proj.) Feb
484.71 484.33
622.82 621.57
45.82 46.84
481.75 480.78
141.08 140.79
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Output
Total Supply
Trade 2/
Total Use 3/
Ending Stocks
2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
429.26 472.56
506.00 556.09
81.75 96.92
348.12 363.41
76.14 95.76
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2017/18 (Proj.) Jan 2017/18 (Proj.) Feb
437.29 437.29
541.63 541.63
85.36 87.85
363.10 363.24
93.17 90.54
United States
Total Grains 4/
Wheat
Coarse Grains 5/
Rice, milled
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2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
56.12 62.83
79.66 92.60
21.17 28.72
31.94 31.75
26.55 32.13
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2017/18 (Proj.) Jan 2017/18 (Proj.) Feb
47.37 47.37
83.72 83.72
26.54 25.86
30.26 30.40
26.92 27.47
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2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
367.01 402.61
417.89 454.15
57.18 64.50
312.60 327.48
48.11 62.17
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2017/18 (Proj.) Jan 2017/18 (Proj.) Feb
384.26 384.26
450.00 450.00
55.65 58.82
329.03 329.03
65.33 62.15
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2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
6.13 7.12
8.45 9.34
3.40 3.70
3.58 4.17
1.48 1.46
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2017/18 (Proj.) Jan 2017/18 (Proj.) Feb
5.66 5.66
7.91 7.91
3.18 3.18
3.81 3.81
0.93 0.93
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1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total use for the United States is equal to domestic consumption only (excludes exports). 4/ Wheat, coarse grains, and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains).
February 2018 WASDE - 574 - 9 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Grains, Continued 1/ Million Metric Tons Output
Total Supply
Trade 2/
Total Use
Ending Stocks
2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
2,039.27 2,130.69
2,555.43 2,673.86
294.89 333.56
2,086.63 2,214.01
550.55 556.77
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2017/18 (Proj.) Jan 2017/18 (Proj.) Feb
2,128.65 2,127.23
2,676.91 2,675.41
330.23 332.86
2,212.58 2,216.87
549.69 546.39
Foreign 3/ Total Grains 4/
Wheat
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2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
679.19 687.60
873.60 899.41
151.67 154.57
679.74 707.62
215.03 220.51
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2017/18 (Proj.) Jan 2017/18 (Proj.) Feb
709.64 710.88
926.00 927.16
154.31 155.84
711.44 714.39
241.10 238.63
Coarse Grains 5/ 2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
Rice, milled
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893.25 963.42
1,089.54 1,164.37
106.28 136.18
942.36 1,028.39
204.37 200.48
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2017/18 (Proj.) Jan 2017/18 (Proj.) Feb
939.97 937.68
1,136.00 1,134.58
133.27 133.36
1,023.20 1,025.52
168.44 167.89
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2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
466.83 479.67
592.29 610.08
36.95 42.81
464.53 478.00
131.16 135.78
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2017/18 (Proj.) Jan 2017/18 (Proj.) Feb
479.05 478.67
614.91 613.66
42.65 43.66
477.94 476.97
140.15 139.87
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1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Based on export estimate. See individual commodity tables for treatment of export/import imbalances. 3/ Total foreign is equal to world minus United States. 4/ Wheat, coarse grains, and milled rice. 5/ Corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains.
World and U.S. Supply and Use for Cotton 1/ Million 480-lb. Bales
World
United States
Foreign 4/
Output
Total Supply
Trade 2/
Total Use 3/
Ending Stocks
2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
96.14 106.57
207.29 201.90
35.13 37.22
112.26 114.75
95.34 87.66
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2017/18 (Proj.) Jan 2017/18 (Proj.) Feb
120.97 121.37
208.60 209.03
38.38 38.22
120.83 120.50
87.79 88.55
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2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
12.89 17.17
16.57 20.98
9.15 14.92
3.45 3.25
3.80 2.75
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2017/18 (Proj.) Jan 2017/18 (Proj.) Feb
21.26 21.26
24.02 24.02
14.80 14.50
3.35 3.35
5.70 6.00
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2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
83.25 89.40
190.72 180.93
25.98 22.30
108.81 111.50
91.54 84.91
2017/18 (Proj.) Jan 2017/18 (Proj.) Feb
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99.70 100.11
184.58 185.01
23.58 23.72
117.48 117.15
82.09 82.55
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1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Based on export estimate. 3/ Includes mill use only. 4/ Total Foreign is equal to world minus United States. See global cotton tables for treatment of export/import imbalances.
February 2018 WASDE - 574 - 10 World and U.S. Supply and Use for Oilseeds 1/ (Million Metric Tons) Output
Total Supply
Trade
Total Use 2/
Ending Stocks
2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
521.50 574.97
614.87 665.58
153.28 170.38
446.36 470.76
90.61 108.01
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2017/18 (Proj.) Jan 2017/18 (Proj.) Feb
580.08 578.62
688.42 686.63
175.97 175.85
488.49 487.47
111.18 110.43
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2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
306.39 322.21
323.68 338.47
86.89 88.35
303.76 318.30
16.26 15.88
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2017/18 (Proj.) Jan 2017/18 (Proj.) Feb
334.55 333.67
350.39 349.55
91.16 91.06
331.15 331.20
15.25 14.19
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2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
176.91 189.06
201.38 209.87
73.56 80.76
177.60 184.33
20.81 19.40
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2017/18 (Proj.) Jan 2017/18 (Proj.) Feb
196.85 197.12
216.15 216.52
81.02 81.11
190.34 190.83
20.55 20.72
World Oilseeds
Oilmeals
Vegetable Oils
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Output
Total Supply
Trade
Total / Use 2
Ending Stoc ks
2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
115.88 126.93
123.76 135.30
53.96 60.28
55.05 56.20
6.87 9.60
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2017/18 (Proj.) Jan 2017/18 (Proj.) Feb
131.31 131.31
142.40 142.35
60.04 58.41
57.96 57.58
14.57 16.23
United States Oilseeds
Oilmeals
Vegetable Oils
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2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
42.78 43.06
47.15 47.26
11.18 10.83
35.69 36.02
0.28 0.41
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2017/18 (Proj.) Jan 2017/18 (Proj.) Feb
44.47 44.33
48.76 48.44
11.41 11.41
37.03 36.71
0.33 0.33
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2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
11.21 11.42
17.03 17.35
1.25 1.42
14.58 14.71
1.20 1.23
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2017/18 (Proj.) Jan 2017/18 (Proj.) Feb
11.67 11.60
17.81 17.69
1.12 1.10
15.60 15.48
1.09 1.11
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Output
Total Supply
Trade
Total Use 2/
Ending Stoc ks
2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
405.62 448.04
491.10 530.28
99.32 110.10
391.31 414.56
83.74 98.41
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2017/18 (Proj.) Jan 2017/18 (Proj.) Feb
448.77 447.31
546.02 544.28
115.93 117.44
430.53 429.89
96.61 94.19
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2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
263.61 279.14
276.53 291.21
75.71 77.52
268.07 282.28
15.99 15.47
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2017/18 (Proj.) Jan 2017/18 (Proj.) Feb
290.08 289.34
301.62 301.10
79.76 79.65
294.12 294.49
14.93 13.86
filler
filler
filler
filler
filler
2015/16 2016/17 (Est.)
165.70 177.64
184.35 192.52
72.31 79.34
163.02 169.63
19.61 18.17
filler
filler
filler
filler
filler
2017/18 (Proj.) Jan 2017/18 (Proj.) Feb
185.18 185.52
198.34 198.83
79.90 80.01
174.74 175.35
19.46 19.62
filler
filler
filler
filler
filler
Foreign 3/ Oilseeds
Oilmeals
Vegetable Oils
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years with Brazil and Argentina on an Oct.-Sept. year. 2/ Crush only for oilseeds. 3/ Total Foreign is equal to World minus United States.
February 2018 WASDE - 574 - 11 U.S. Wheat Supply and Use 1/ 2015/16
Area Planted Area Harvested
55.0 47.3
Yield per Harvested Acre
43.6
Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply, Total Food Seed Feed and Residual Domestic, Total Exports Use, Total Ending Stocks Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/
752 2,062 113 2,927 957 67 149 1,174 778 1,951 976 4.89
2016/17 Est.
2017/18 Proj.
2017/18 Proj.
Jan
Feb
Million Acres 50.1 46.0 43.9 37.6 Bushels 52.7 46.3 Million Bushels 976 1,181 2,309 1,741 118 155 3,402 3,076 949 950 61 62 156 100 1,167 1,112 1,055 975 2,222 2,087 1,181 989 3.89 4.50 - 4.70
46.0 37.6 46.3 1,181 1,741 155 3,076 955 62 100 1,117 950 2,067 1,009 4.55 - 4.65
U.S. Wheat by Class: Supply and Use Year beginning June 1
Hard Red Winter
Hard Red Spring
Soft Red Winter
White
Durum
Total
Million
Bushels
2016/17 (Est.)
Beginning Stocks Production Supply, Total 3/ Domestic Use Exports Use, Total Ending Stocks, Total
446 1,082 1,533 489 455 943 589
272 491 805 249 321 570 235
157 345 535 228 92 320 215
74 286 368 99 163 263 105
28 104 162 101 24 126 36
976 2,309 3,402 1,167 1,055 2,222 1,181
2017/18 (Proj.)
Beginning Stocks Production Supply, Total 3/ Domestic Use Exports Use, Total Ending Stocks, Total Ending Stocks, Total
589 750 1,346 457 395 852 494 484
235 385 695 274 245 519 176 178
215 292 527 209 90 299 228 231
105 258 370 94 200 294 76 61
36 55 138 83 20 103 35 35
1,181 1,741 3,076 1,117 950 2,067 1,009 989
Feb Jan
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning June 1. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 3/ Includes imports.
February 2018 WASDE - 574 - 12 U.S. Feed Grain and Corn Supply and Use 1/ 2015/16
2016/17 Est.
FEED GRAINS
Area Planted Area Harvested Yield per Harvested Acre Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply, Total Feed and Residual Food, Seed & Industrial Domestic, Total Exports Use, Total Ending Stocks
103.2 93.0 3.94 46.9 366.7 3.7 417.4 135.2 176.9 312.1 57.2 369.3 48.1 2015/16
2017/18 Proj.
2017/18 Proj.
Jan
Feb
Million Acres 106.6 100.9 96.5 90.5 Metric Tons 4.17 4.24 Million Metric Tons 48.1 62.1 402.3 384.0 3.3 3.4 453.6 449.5 144.4 145.0 182.5 183.6 327.0 328.6 64.5 55.6 391.5 384.2 62.1 65.3 2016/17 E st.
100.9 90.5 4.24 62.1 384.0 3.4 449.5 145.0 183.6 328.6 58.8 387.4 62.1
2017/18 Proj.
2017/18 Proj.
January
February
CORN Area Planted Area Harvested Yield per Harvested Acre Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply, Total Feed and Residual Food, Seed & Industrial 2/ Ethanol & by-products 3/ Domestic, Total Exports Use, Total Ending Stocks Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 4/
88.0 80.8 168.4 1,731 13,602 68 15,401 5,114 6,648 5,224 11,763 1,901 13,664 1,737 3.61
Million Acres 94.0 90.2 86.7 82.7 Bushels 174.6 176.6 Million Bushels 1,737 2,293 15,148 14,604 57 50 16,942 16,947 5,467 5,550 6,889 6,995 5,439 5,525 12,356 12,545 2,293 1,925 14,649 14,470 2,293 2,477 3.36 2.95 - 3.55
90.2 82.7 176.6 2,293 14,604 50 16,947 5,550 6,995 5,525 12,545 2,050 14,595 2,352 3.05 - 3.55
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for corn and sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ For a breakout of FSI corn uses, see Feed Outlook table 5 or access the data on the Web through the Feed Grains Database at www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/feed-grains-database.aspx. 3/ Corn processed in ethanol plants to produce ethanol and by-products including distillers' grains, corn gluten feed, corn gluten meal, and corn oil. 4/ Marketingyear weighted average price received by farmers.
February 2018 WASDE - 574 - 13 U.S. Sorghum, Barley, and Oats Supply and Use 1/ 2015/16
2016/17 Est.
2017/18 Proj.
2017/18 Proj.
Jan
Feb
SORGHUM Million Bushels Filler
Area Planted (mil. acres) Area Harvested (mil. acres) Yield (bushels/acre) Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply, Total Feed and Residual Food, Seed & Industrial Total Domestic Exports Use, Total Ending Stocks Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/ Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
8.5 7.9 76.0 18 597 5 620 107 137 244 340 583 37 3.31
6.7 6.2 77.9 37 480 2 519 130 115 245 241 485 33 2.79
5.6 5.0 72.1 33 364 2 399 65 50 115 260 375 24 2.85 - 3.45
5.6 5.0 72.1 33 364 2 399 65 50 115 260 375 24 2.90 - 3.40
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
2015/16
2016/17 E st.
2017/18 Proj.
2017/18 Proj.
January
February
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
3.6 3.2 69.1 79 218 19 315 44 158 202 11 213 102 5.52
3.1 2.6 77.9 102 200 10 312 39 162 201 4 205 106 4.96
2.5 2.0 72.6 106 142 15 263 35 162 197 5 202 61 4.15 - 4.85
2.5 2.0 72.6 106 142 15 263 35 162 197 5 202 61 4.15 - 4.75
BARLEY Filler
Area Planted (mil. acres) Area Harvested (mil. acres) Yield (bushels/acre) Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply, Total Feed and Residual Food, Seed & Industrial Total Domestic Exports Use, Total Ending Stocks Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/ Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
2015/16
2016/17 E st.
2017/18 Proj.
2017/18 Proj.
January
February
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
3.1 1.3 70.2 54 90 86 229 94 77 170 2 172 57 2.12
2.8 1.0 66.0 57 65 90 212 82 76 158 3 162 50 2.06
2.6 0.8 61.7 50 49 100 200 90 78 168 2 170 30 2.35 - 2.65
2.6 0.8 61.7 50 49 100 200 90 78 168 2 170 30 2.50 - 2.70
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
OATS Filler
Area Planted (mil. acres) Area Harvested (mil. acres) Yield (bushels/acre) Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply, Total Feed and Residual Food, Seed & Industrial Total Domestic Exports Use, Total Ending Stocks Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/ Filler
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for sorghum; June 1 for barley and oats. 2/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers.
February 2018 WASDE - 574 - 14 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice) 2015/16
2016/17 Est.
TOTAL RICE
Area Planted Area Harvested
2.63 2.59
Filler
Yield per Harvested Acre
7,472
Beginning Stocks 2/ Production Imports Supply, Total Domestic & Residual 3/ Exports, Total 4/ Rough Milled (rough equiv.) Use, Total Ending Stocks Avg. Milling Yield (%) 5/ Avg. Farm Price ($/cwt) 6/
48.5 193.1 24.1 265.8 112.4 107.0 39.3 67.7 219.3 46.5 70.00 12.20
2017/18 Proj.
2017/18 Proj.
Jan
Feb
Million Acres 3.15 2.46 3.10 2.37 Pounds 7,237 7,507 Million Hundredweight 46.5 46.0 224.1 178.2 23.5 24.9 294.1 249.2 131.4 120.0 116.7 100.0 42.5 34.0 74.2 66.0 248.0 220.0 46.0 29.2 70.00 70.00 10.40 12.10 - 13.10
2.46 2.37 7,507 46.0 178.2 24.9 249.2 120.0 100.0 34.0 66.0 220.0 29.2 70.00 12.10 - 12.90
Total
2015/16
2016/17 E st.
2017/18 Proj.
2017/18 Proj.
January
February
1.85 7,219 26.5 133.4 180.7 82.1 75.9 158.0 22.7 11.20
2.40 6,927 22.7 166.5 209.4 99.7 78.7 178.4 31.0 9.61
1.75 7,314 31.0 127.9 180.4 93.0 71.0 164.0 16.4 11.30 - 12.30
1.75 7,314 31.0 127.9 180.4 93.0 71.0 164.0 16.4 11.30 - 12.10
LONG-GRAIN RICE Harvested Acres (mil.) Yield (pounds/acre) Beginning Stocks Production Supply, Total 7/ Domestic & Residual 3/ Exports 8/ Use, Total Ending Stocks Avg. Farm Price ($/cwt) 6/ Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
2015/16
2016/17 E st.
2017/18 Proj.
2017/18 Proj.
January
February
0.74 8,107 20.2 59.7 82.2 30.3 31.0 61.3 20.9 15.30 18.10 11.20
0.69 8,311 20.9 57.7 81.1 31.7 37.9 69.6 11.5 13.10 14.10 10.10
0.63 8,048 11.5 50.4 65.3 27.0 29.0 56.0 9.3 14.50 - 15.50 15.50 - 16.50 11.50 - 12.50
0.63 8,048 11.5 50.4 65.3 27.0 29.0 56.0 9.3 14.60 - 15.40 15.50 - 16.50 11.50 - 12.30
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
MEDIUM & SHORT-GRAIN RICE Harvested Acres (mil.) Yield (pounds/acre) Beginning Stocks Production Supply, Total 7/ Domestic & Residual 3/ Exports 8/ Use, Total Ending Stocks Avg. Farm Price ($/cwt) 1/ 6/ 9/ California 10/ Other States 1/ Filler
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of ending stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2015/16-2.9; 2016/17-2.9; 2017/18-2.9. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. 9/ The medium/short-grain season-average- farm price (SAFP) largely reflects rice that is marketed through price pools in California. The pool price is not final until all the rice in the pool is marketed for the crop year. Therefore, SAFP forecasts based on the average of NASS monthly prices and the final price may differ. For example, the average difference between the August WASDE SAFP forecast and the final price has averaged $1.65 per cwt from 2008/09-2013/14, with a high of $3.50 per cwt in 2008/09 and a low of $0.60 per cwt in 2009/10. 10/ Marketing year beginning October 1.
February 2018 WASDE - 574 - 15 U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ 2015/16
2016/17 Est.
2017/18 Proj.
2017/18 Proj.
Filler
Filler
Jan
Feb
Filler
Filler
82.7 81.7
Million Acres 83.4 82.7
90.1 89.5
90.1 89.5
Yield per Harvested Acre
48.0
Bushels 52.0
49.1
49.1
Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply, Total Crushings Exports Seed Residual Use, Total Ending Stocks Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/
191 3,926 24 4,140 1,886 1,942 97 18 3,944 197 8.95
197 4,296 22 4,515 1,899 2,174 105 36 4,213 302 9.47
302 4,392 25 4,718 1,950 2,160 106 33 4,248 470 8.80 - 9.80
302 4,392 25 4,718 1,950 2,100 106 33 4,188 530 8.90 - 9.70
2015/16
2016/17 E st.
2017/18 Proj.
2017/18 Proj.
January
February
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Million Pounds 1,687 1,711 22,099 22,525 319 300 24,104 24,536 19,837 21,100 6,200 7,500 13,637 13,600 2,556 1,900 22,393 23,000 1,711 1,536 32.48 32.00 - 35.00
1,711 22,525 300 24,536 21,100 7,500 13,600 1,900 23,000 1,536 31.00 - 34.00
SOYBEANS Filler
Area Planted Area Harvested Filler
Million Bushels
Total
SOYBEAN OIL Filler
Beginning Stocks Production 4/ Imports Supply, Total Domestic Disappearance Biodiesel 3/ Food, Feed & other Industrial Exports Use, Total Ending stocks Avg. Price (c/lb) 2/
1,855 21,950 287 24,092 20,162 5,670 14,492 2,243 22,405 1,687 29.86
Total
2015/16
2016/17 E st.
2017/18 Proj.
2017/18 Proj.
1
2
January
February
3
4
Thousand Short Tons 264 401 44,733 46,099 349 300 45,347 46,800 33,345 34,300 11,601 12,200 44,946 46,500 401 300 316.88 295.00 - 335.00
401 46,099 300 46,800 34,300 12,200 46,500 300 305.00 - 335.00
SOYBEAN MEAL Filler
Beginning Stocks Production 4/ Imports Supply, Total Domestic Disappearance Exports Use, Total Ending Stocks Avg. Price ($/s.t.) 2/
260 44,672 403 45,336 33,118 11,954 45,072 264 324.56
Total
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Marketing year beginning September 1 for soybeans; October 1 for soybean oil and soybean meal. 2/ Prices: soybeans, marketing year weighted average price received by farmers; oil, simple average of crude soybean oil, Decatur; meal, simple average of 48 percent protein, Decatur. 3/ Reflects only biodiesel made from methyl ester as reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4/ Based on an October year crush of 1,906 million bushels for 2016/17 and 1,950 million bushels for 2017/18.
February 2018 WASDE - 574 - 16 U.S. Sugar Supply and Use 1/ 2015/16
2016/17 Est.
Filler
Filler
Filler
2017/18 Proj.
2017/18 Proj.
Jan
Feb
Filler
Filler
1,851 9,312 5,257 4,055 2,075 0 1,820 160 3,316 1,788 250 1,278 1,268 14,479
1,876 9,230 5,219 4,011 1,992 0 1,859 160 3,316 1,788 250 1,278 1,268 14,422
100 12,555 12,400 155 0 12,655 1,824 14.4
100 12,480 12,325 155 0 12,580 1,842 14.6
Beginning Stocks Production 2/ Beet Sugar Cane Sugar Florida Hawaii Louisiana Texas Imports TRQ 3/ Other Program 4/ Other 5/ Mexico Total Supply
1,815 8,989 5,119 3,870 2,173 152 1,428 116 3,341 1,620 396 1,325 1,309 14,145
1,000 Short Tons,Raw Value 2,054 8,969 5,103 3,866 2,055 43 1,628 140 3,244 1,611 419 1,213 1,201 14,267
Exports Deliveries Food 6/ Other 7/ Miscellaneous Total Use Ending Stocks Stocks to Use Ratio
74 12,051 11,881 170 -33 12,091 2,054 17.0
95 12,258 12,102 156 38 12,391 1,876 15.1
Total
1/ Fiscal years beginning Oct 1. Historical data are from FSA "Sweetener Market Data" (SMD). 2/ Production projections for 2016/17 and 2017/18 are based on Crop Production and processor projections where appropriate. 3/ For 2017/18, WTO raw sugar TRQ shortfall (183). For 2016/17, WTO raw sugar TRQ shortfall is undefined because of 13th month rollover into 2017/18. 4/ Includes sugar under the re-export and polyhydric alcohol programs. 5/ For 2015/16, other high-tier (16) and other (0). For 2016/17, other high-tier (12) and other (0). For 2017/18, other high-tier (10) and other (0). 6/For 2014/15, combines SMD deliveries for domestic human food use and SMD miscellaneous uses. 7/ Transfers to sugar-containing products for reexport, and for nonedible alcohol, feed, and ethanol.
Mexico Sugar Supply and Use and High Fructose Corn Syrup Imports 1/ Beginning Stocks
Production
Sugar
Imports
Domestic 2/
Exports
Ending Stocks
1,000 Metric Tons, Actual Weight
2016/17 Est. 2016/17 Est.
Jan Feb
1,037 1,037
5,957 5,957
93 93
4,851 4,851
1,234 1,234
1,002 1,002
2017/18 Proj. 2017/18 Proj.
Jan Feb
1,002 1,002
6,100 6,100
135 135
4,972 4,886
1,257 1,362
1,008 989
1/ HFCS consumption by Mexico (1,000 metric tons, dry basis): Estimated Oct-Sep 2016/17 = 1,522, projected 2017/18 = 1,608; Oct - Dec 2016/17 = 348, Oct - Dec 2017/18 = 395. Footnote source for estimate: Comite Nacional para el Desarollo Sustentable de la Cana de Azucar. 2/Includes deliveries for consumption, Mexico's products export program (IMMEX), and Other Deliveries/Ending Year Statistical Adjustments. IMMEX: 2016/17 (397 est), 2017/18 (390 proj). Other Deliveries/Ending Year Statistical Adjustments: 2015/16 (-10), 2016/17 (-61), 2017/18 (0).
February 2018 WASDE - 574 - 17 U.S. Cotton Supply and Use 1/
Filler
Area Planted Harvested
2015/16
2016/17 Est.
Filler
Filler
8.58 8.07
2017/18 Proj.
2017/18 Proj.
Jan
Feb
Filler
Filler
Million Acres 10.07 12.61 9.51 11.35
12.61 11.35
Filler
Yield per Harvested Acre
766
Pounds 867
899
899
2.75 21.26 0.01 24.02 3.35 14.80 18.15 0.17 5.70 67.00 - 71.00
2.75 21.26 0.01 24.02 3.35 14.50 17.85 0.17 6.00 67.00 - 71.00
Million 480 Pound Bales
Beginning Stocks Production Imports Supply, Total Domestic Use Exports, Total Use, Total Unaccounted 2/ Ending Stocks Avg. Farm Price 3/
3.65 12.89 0.03 16.57 3.45 9.15 12.60 0.17 3.80 61.2
3.80 17.17 0.01 20.98 3.25 14.92 18.17 0.06 2.75 68.0
Total
Note: Reliability calculations at end of report. 1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add due to rounding. 2/ Reflects the difference between the previous season's supply less total use and ending stocks. 3/ Cents per pound for upland cotton.
February 2018 WASDE - 574 - 18 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons)
2015/16 World 3/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 4/ Argentina Australia Canada European Union 5/ Major Importers 6/ Brazil China Sel. Mideast 7/ N. Africa 8/ Pakistan Southeast Asia 9/ Selected Other India FSU-12 Russia Kazakhstan Ukraine
Beginning Stocks 217.95 20.48 197.48 29.27 4.80 4.67 7.10 12.70 113.34 0.87 76.11 13.65 13.22 3.71 3.85
Production 735.31 56.12 679.19 221.65 11.30 22.28 27.59 160.48 205.43 5.54 130.19 19.91 19.98 25.10 0.00
Imports 170.09 3.07 167.02 7.59 0.01 0.15 0.51 6.92 92.35 6.75 3.48 19.19 27.80 0.02 24.60
Domestic Feed 136.50 4.07 132.43 65.65 0.20 3.70 2.75 59.00 27.94 0.50 10.50 4.85 2.28 0.80 8.02
Domestic Total 2/ 711.68 31.94 679.74 150.59 5.70 7.13 7.92 129.85 264.64 11.10 112.00 37.77 43.67 24.40 22.30
Exports 172.84 21.17 151.67 82.52 9.60 16.12 22.11 34.69 6.42 1.06 0.73 0.55 0.70 0.60 0.97
Ending Stocks 241.58 26.55 215.03 25.41 0.82 3.85 5.18 15.56 140.06 1.00 97.04 14.43 16.63 3.83 5.19
17.22 86.53 0.47 4.20 88.55 1.13 14.54 20.66 117.96 7.40 26.74 77.78 51.48 16.77 6.29 61.04 0.82 14.00 37.00 25.54 5.61 3.28 13.75 0.07 2.10 6.90 7.60 2.60 5.68 27.27 0.03 5.10 12.20 17.43 3.35 Beginning Domestic Domestic Ending 2016/17 Est. Stocks Production Imports Feed Total 2/ Exports Stocks World 3/ 241.58 750.44 179.27 147.09 739.37 183.29 252.64 United States 26.55 62.83 3.22 4.26 31.75 28.72 32.13 Total Foreign 215.03 687.60 176.05 142.83 707.62 154.57 220.51 Major Exporters 4/ 25.41 225.74 5.94 65.39 150.92 83.95 22.22 Argentina 0.82 18.40 0.01 0.05 5.15 13.83 0.25 Australia 3.85 30.36 0.14 3.90 7.35 22.64 4.37 Canada 5.18 31.73 0.50 5.44 10.42 20.16 6.84 European Union 5/ 15.56 145.25 5.29 56.00 128.00 27.32 10.77 Major Importers 6/ 140.06 200.04 96.41 36.62 278.75 5.49 152.28 Brazil 1.00 6.73 7.35 0.80 12.20 0.62 2.26 China 97.04 128.85 4.41 16.50 118.50 0.75 111.05 Sel. Mideast 7/ 14.43 20.14 18.11 4.97 39.12 0.53 13.03 N. Africa 8/ 16.63 14.08 28.36 2.28 44.57 0.57 13.92 Pakistan 3.83 25.60 0.00 0.80 24.50 0.60 4.33 Southeast Asia 9/ 5.19 0.00 26.91 9.89 25.47 1.02 5.61 Selected Other India 14.54 87.00 5.90 4.70 97.12 0.52 9.80 FSU-12 16.77 130.47 7.36 28.00 79.07 54.42 21.11 Russia 5.61 72.53 0.50 17.00 40.00 27.81 10.83 Kazakhstan 2.60 14.99 0.08 2.10 6.90 7.40 3.36 Ukraine 3.35 26.79 0.04 3.60 10.30 18.11 1.77 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the European Union. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
February 2018 WASDE - 574 - 19 World Wheat Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) Beginning Stocks Production
2017/18 Proj. World 3/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 4/ Argentina Australia Canada European Union 5/ Major Importers 6/ Brazil China Sel. Mideast 7/ N. Africa 8/ Pakistan Southeast Asia 9/ Selected Other India
Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb
252.72 252.64 32.13 32.13 220.59 220.51 22.20 22.22 0.22 0.25 4.37 4.37 6.84 6.84 10.77 10.77 152.20 152.28 2.18 2.26 111.05 111.05 13.03 13.03 13.92 13.92 4.33 4.33 5.61 5.61
757.01 758.25 47.37 47.37 709.64 710.88 220.60 221.10 17.50 18.00 21.50 21.50 30.00 30.00 151.60 151.60 202.80 202.75 4.25 4.25 130.00 130.00 19.42 19.42 18.15 18.15 26.50 26.50 0.00 0.00
Imports
Domestic Feed
Domestic Total 2/
Exports
Ending Stocks
180.19 180.31 4.22 4.22 175.97 176.09 6.66 6.16 0.01 0.01 0.15 0.15 0.50 0.50 6.00 5.50 95.48 95.88 8.00 7.80 4.00 4.00 18.40 18.20 27.85 27.85 0.03 0.03 26.00 27.00
143.32 144.52 2.72 2.72 140.60 141.80 64.00 64.00 0.10 0.10 3.40 3.40 3.50 3.50 57.00 57.00 30.78 31.78 0.50 0.50 13.00 13.50 5.31 5.31 2.18 2.18 1.00 1.00 7.79 8.29
741.70 744.79 30.26 30.40 711.44 714.39 149.75 149.75 5.50 5.50 6.80 6.80 8.70 8.70 128.75 128.75 277.11 278.71 12.10 12.10 116.00 117.00 40.50 40.50 45.08 45.08 25.00 25.00 24.34 24.94
180.85 181.69 26.54 25.86 154.31 155.84 76.90 77.00 11.90 12.50 16.00 16.00 22.00 22.50 27.00 26.00 6.46 6.71 0.80 0.60 0.80 1.00 0.84 0.89 0.69 0.69 0.60 1.00 1.07 1.07
268.02 266.10 26.92 27.47 241.10 238.63 22.81 22.73 0.33 0.26 3.22 3.22 6.64 6.14 12.62 13.12 166.90 165.49 1.53 1.61 128.25 127.05 9.51 9.26 14.16 14.16 5.26 4.86 6.20 6.60
Jan 9.80 98.38 2.50 5.00 100.00 0.50 10.18 Feb 9.80 98.38 2.00 5.00 100.00 0.50 9.68 FSU-12 Jan 21.11 141.27 7.96 32.50 83.99 60.54 25.82 Feb 21.11 142.15 8.03 32.70 84.19 61.65 25.45 Russia Jan 10.83 85.00 0.50 21.50 45.00 35.00 16.33 Feb 10.83 85.00 0.50 21.50 45.00 36.00 15.33 Kazakhstan Jan 3.36 14.00 0.05 2.10 6.90 7.50 3.01 Feb 3.36 14.00 0.05 2.10 6.90 7.50 3.01 Ukraine Jan 1.78 26.50 0.03 3.40 9.80 17.00 1.51 Feb 1.77 26.98 0.03 3.50 9.90 17.00 1.88 1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, and the European Union. 5/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 6/ Brazil, China, Japan, Mexico, N. Africa, Pakistan, selected Middle East, and Southeast Asia. 7/ Lebanon, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, United Arab Emirates, and Oman. 8/ Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. 9/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
February 2018 WASDE - 574 - 20 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons)
2015/16 World 3/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 4/ Argentina Australia Brazil Canada Major Importers 5/ European Union 6/ Japan Mexico N. Afr & Mideast 7/ Saudi Arabia Southeast Asia 8/ South Korea Selected Other China FSU-12 Russia Ukraine
2016/17 Est. World 3/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 4/ Argentina Australia Brazil Canada Major Importers 5/ European Union 6/ Japan Mexico N. Afr & Mideast 7/ Saudi Arabia Southeast Asia 8/ South Korea Selected Other China FSU-12 Russia Ukraine
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Domestic Feed
Domestic Total 2/
Exports
Ending Stocks
247.17 46.95 200.22 20.12 4.27 1.53 8.24 3.33 49.13 18.89 1.77 4.83 14.49 3.36 3.66 1.89
1,260.26 367.01 893.25 153.93 38.44 12.54 68.65 25.62 246.12 152.67 0.18 32.38 32.77 0.36 27.51 0.19
181.15 3.94 177.22 7.90 0.00 0.00 3.97 1.55 123.97 14.26 17.07 14.95 32.75 14.79 15.17 10.19
767.15 135.37 631.78 83.39 9.36 3.96 50.47 13.81 271.75 117.08 13.29 26.72 55.96 13.60 33.06 7.83
1,254.95 312.60 942.36 112.69 14.32 5.64 59.82 21.25 353.48 157.25 17.26 44.72 64.31 14.11 41.07 10.32
163.46 57.18 106.28 51.63 25.22 6.94 14.03 4.61 15.71 13.11 0.00 1.56 0.11 0.00 0.93 0.00
252.48 48.11 204.37 17.63 3.18 1.50 7.01 4.64 50.03 15.45 1.76 5.89 15.59 4.41 4.33 1.95
101.92 7.92 2.82 3.29
231.40 82.55 37.43 33.39
17.50 0.54 0.13 0.05
166.44 38.26 20.32 8.74
238.74 53.43 29.72 12.37
0.03 31.33 9.00 21.19
112.05 6.25 1.66 3.17
Beginning Stoc ks
Production
Imports
Domestic Feed
Domestic Total 2/
Exports
Ending Stoc ks
252.48 48.11 204.37 17.63 3.18 1.50 7.01 4.64 50.03 15.45 1.76 5.89 15.59 4.41 4.33 1.95
1,366.03 402.61 963.42 210.59 48.57 16.62 101.58 25.79 242.33 152.59 0.17 33.33 26.21 0.36 29.40 0.20
172.67 3.43 169.24 2.80 0.00 0.00 1.64 0.94 120.78 15.83 17.00 15.24 34.14 11.52 13.48 9.29
799.69 144.60 655.09 89.84 11.07 4.29 53.45 13.80 276.22 120.07 13.25 28.00 55.38 13.22 34.96 7.24
1,355.87 327.48 1,028.39 122.09 16.44 6.16 64.03 21.65 358.43 160.69 17.25 46.90 63.20 13.73 42.77 9.59
200.68 64.50 136.18 80.02 28.51 10.18 34.01 4.81 11.04 8.07 0.00 1.54 0.16 0.00 1.27 0.00
262.65 62.17 200.48 28.91 6.80 1.78 12.19 4.91 43.67 15.11 1.69 6.02 12.59 2.56 3.17 1.85
112.05 6.25 1.66 3.17
227.44 92.15 40.77 39.22
16.06 0.76 0.28 0.04
174.28 40.70 22.58 9.06
252.94 55.97 32.13 12.53
0.11 36.58 8.56 26.90
102.49 6.61 2.02 3.00
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, Brazil, and South Africa. 5/ The European Union, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
February 2018 WASDE - 574 - 21 World Coarse Grain Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) Beginning Stocks Production
2017/18 Proj. World 3/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 4/ Argentina Australia Brazil Canada Major Importers 5/ European Union 6/ Japan Mexico N. Afr & Mideast 7/ Saudi Arabia Southeast Asia 8/ South Korea Selected Other China FSU-12 Russia Ukraine
Imports
Domestic Feed
Domestic Total 2/
Exports
Ending Stocks
Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb
261.77 262.65 62.17 62.17 199.61 200.48 27.91 28.91 6.95 6.80 1.78 1.78 11.04 12.19 4.91 4.91 43.69 43.67 15.11 15.11 1.69 1.69 6.01 6.02 12.60 12.59 2.56 2.56 3.18 3.17 1.85 1.85
1,324.22 1,321.94 384.26 384.26 939.97 937.68 197.55 194.90 49.10 46.45 11.50 11.50 97.79 97.79 26.21 26.21 242.68 243.23 150.80 150.80 0.19 0.19 31.63 32.08 29.99 29.99 0.36 0.36 29.44 29.54 0.20 0.20
183.55 185.20 3.58 3.58 179.98 181.63 2.23 2.33 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.85 0.95 1.06 1.06 131.19 132.64 16.71 16.91 16.72 16.72 16.90 16.90 38.77 40.02 13.01 13.01 14.72 14.72 9.77 9.77
815.32 816.04 145.07 145.07 670.25 670.97 90.87 90.22 11.72 11.22 3.34 3.19 54.44 54.44 15.49 15.49 283.81 285.46 119.48 119.68 13.07 13.07 29.22 29.37 60.31 61.51 13.55 13.55 36.16 36.26 7.54 7.54
1,352.23 1,354.54 329.03 329.03 1,023.20 1,025.52 123.12 122.47 17.38 16.88 5.21 5.06 64.89 64.89 23.25 23.25 366.23 367.88 160.10 160.30 17.06 17.06 48.19 48.34 68.31 69.51 14.11 14.11 43.76 43.86 10.01 10.01
188.91 192.18 55.65 58.82 133.27 133.36 78.81 78.81 31.31 30.11 7.03 7.23 34.02 35.02 4.75 4.75 10.88 10.75 8.51 8.51 0.00 0.00 1.30 1.30 0.25 0.12 0.00 0.00 0.83 0.83 0.00 0.00
233.77 230.04 65.33 62.15 168.44 167.89 25.77 24.86 7.37 6.27 1.05 0.99 10.77 11.02 4.18 4.18 40.44 40.91 14.01 14.01 1.53 1.53 5.05 5.36 12.81 12.97 1.82 1.82 2.75 2.73 1.82 1.82
Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb
102.49 102.49 6.70 6.61 2.02 2.02 3.04 3.00
223.93 223.93 89.54 89.10 42.00 42.00 34.99 34.07
16.10 16.30 0.72 0.72 0.11 0.11 0.03 0.03
178.95 179.10 40.30 39.77 23.07 22.77 7.04 6.69
261.48 261.66 55.44 54.86 32.72 32.32 10.31 10.00
0.08 0.08 36.37 36.59 9.66 10.06 25.61 25.11
80.96 80.98 5.16 4.98 1.75 1.75 2.15 1.99
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. Coarse grains include corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grains (for U.S. excludes millet and mixed grains). 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Australia, Canada, Brazil, and South Africa. 5/ The European Union, Mexico, Japan, selected North Africa and Middle East, South Korea, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey. 8/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
February 2018 WASDE - 574 - 22 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons)
2015/16 World 3/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 4/ Argentina Brazil South Africa Major Importers 5/ Egypt European Union 6/ Japan Mexico Southeast Asia 7/ South Korea Selected Other Canada China FSU-12 Ukraine
2016/17 Est. World 3/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 4/ Argentina Brazil South Africa Major Importers 5/ Egypt European Union 6/ Japan Mexico Southeast Asia 7/ South Korea Selected Other Canada China FSU-12 Ukraine
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Domestic Feed
Domestic Total 2/
Exports
209.74 43.97 165.77 13.19 2.90 7.84 2.45 23.17 2.36 9.63 1.35 4.09 3.65 1.86
973.45 345.51 627.95 104.71 29.50 67.00 8.21 118.33 6.00 58.75 0.00 25.97 27.46 0.08
139.25 1.72 137.54 5.67 0.00 3.42 2.24 81.66 8.72 13.79 15.20 14.01 15.15 10.12
601.78 129.91 471.87 60.70 6.00 49.00 5.70 144.80 12.45 55.50 11.60 20.30 33.00 7.80
968.23 298.79 669.45 77.77 9.30 57.50 10.97 196.29 14.85 73.50 15.20 37.30 41.00 10.12
119.74 48.29 71.45 36.48 21.64 14.00 0.84 4.44 0.01 1.95 0.00 1.56 0.93 0.00
1.40 100.47 3.16 1.52
13.56 224.63 39.87 23.33
1.37 3.17 0.38 0.03
7.10 153.50 16.62 5.50
12.38 217.50 19.33 6.90
1.74 0.00 21.49 16.60
Beginning Stoc ks
Production
Domestic Feed
Imports
Domestic / Total 2
Ending Stocks 214.96 44.12 170.84 9.32 1.46 6.77 1.10 22.42 2.22 6.72 1.35 5.21 4.33 1.94 0.00 2.21 110.77 2.59 1.39
Ending Stoc ks
Exports
214.96 44.12 170.84 9.32 1.46 6.77 1.10 22.42 2.22 6.72 1.35 5.21 4.33 1.94
1,075.97 384.78 691.19 156.98 41.00 98.50 17.48 124.53 6.00 61.45 0.00 27.58 29.35 0.08
135.72 1.45 134.27 1.00 0.00 0.95 0.05 80.61 8.77 15.24 15.17 14.57 13.46 9.23
632.01 138.87 493.15 65.63 7.50 51.00 7.13 147.96 12.70 55.00 11.60 22.50 34.90 7.21
1,061.17 313.86 747.32 84.83 11.20 60.50 13.13 200.71 15.10 73.70 15.20 40.40 42.70 9.41
162.10 58.24 103.86 62.00 25.50 34.00 2.50 4.99 0.01 2.17 0.00 1.54 1.27 0.00
2.21 110.77 2.59 1.39
13.19 219.55 47.27 27.97
0.85 2.46 0.35 0.03
7.10 162.00 17.30 5.10
12.70 232.00 20.08 6.50
1.52 0.08 27.15 21.33
229.76 58.25 171.51 20.48 5.76 11.72 3.00 21.86 1.89 7.54 1.32 5.42 3.17 1.83 0.00 2.04 100.71 2.97 1.55
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Brazil, and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the European Union, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
February 2018 WASDE - 574 - 23 World Corn Supply and Use 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) Beginning Stocks Production
2017/18 Proj. World 3/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 4/ Argentina Brazil South Africa Major Importers 5/ Egypt European Union 6/ Japan Mexico Southeast Asia 7/ South Korea Selected Other Canada China FSU-12 Ukraine
Imports
Domestic Feed
Domestic Total 2/
Exports
Ending Stocks
Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb
228.75 229.76 58.25 58.25 170.50 171.51 19.33 20.48 5.76 5.76 10.57 11.72 3.00 3.00 21.86 21.86 1.89 1.89 7.54 7.54 1.32 1.32 5.41 5.42 3.18 3.17 1.83 1.83
1,044.56 1,041.73 370.96 370.96 673.60 670.77 149.50 146.50 42.00 39.00 95.00 95.00 12.50 12.50 121.84 122.24 6.00 6.00 60.09 60.09 0.00 0.00 26.20 26.50 29.39 29.49 0.08 0.08
146.08 146.78 1.27 1.27 144.81 145.51 0.41 0.51 0.01 0.01 0.30 0.40 0.10 0.10 86.40 86.60 10.00 10.00 16.00 16.20 15.00 15.00 16.50 16.50 14.70 14.70 9.70 9.70
650.57 650.57 140.98 140.98 509.59 509.59 66.30 65.80 8.50 8.00 52.00 52.00 5.80 5.80 153.25 153.55 13.40 13.40 56.00 56.20 11.50 11.50 24.30 24.30 36.10 36.20 7.50 7.50
1,066.73 1,068.41 318.66 318.66 748.07 749.75 85.70 85.20 12.50 12.00 61.50 61.50 11.70 11.70 206.20 206.50 15.90 15.90 74.80 75.00 15.10 15.10 42.30 42.30 43.70 43.80 9.80 9.80
151.51 153.89 48.90 52.07 102.62 101.82 64.70 64.20 29.00 27.50 34.00 35.00 1.70 1.70 4.13 4.13 0.01 0.01 2.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 1.30 1.30 0.82 0.82 0.00 0.00
206.57 203.09 62.93 59.75 143.65 143.33 18.83 18.08 6.27 5.27 10.37 10.62 2.20 2.20 19.77 20.06 1.98 1.98 6.83 6.83 1.22 1.22 4.51 4.82 2.75 2.73 1.81 1.81
Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb
2.04 2.04 100.71 100.71 3.11 2.97 1.58 1.55
14.10 14.10 215.89 215.89 42.75 42.27 25.00 24.12
1.00 1.00 3.00 3.00 0.45 0.45 0.03 0.03
8.40 8.40 166.00 166.00 15.68 15.48 3.80 3.50
14.00 14.00 240.00 240.00 18.36 18.16 5.10 4.80
1.30 1.30 0.05 0.05 25.56 25.26 20.50 20.00
1.84 1.84 79.55 79.55 2.38 2.26 1.01 0.89
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in marketing years, grain in transit, and reporting discrepancies in some countries. 4/ Argentina, Brazil, and South Africa. 5/ Egypt, the European Union, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
February 2018 WASDE - 574 - 24 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Million Metric Tons)
2015/16 World 3/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 4/ India Pakistan Thailand Vietnam Major Importers 5/ Brazil European Union 6/ Indonesia Nigeria Philippines Sel. Mideast 7/ Selected Other Burma C. Amer & Carib 8/ China Egypt Japan Mexico South Korea
2016/17 Est. World 3/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 4/ India Pakistan Thailand Vietnam Major Importers 5/ Brazil European Union 6/ Indonesia Nigeria Philippines Sel. Mideast 7/ Selected Other Burma C. Amer & Carib 8/ China Egypt Japan Mexico South Korea
Beginning Stocks 127.78 1.55 126.23 31.54 17.80 1.21 11.27 1.26 11.80 0.64 1.15 4.11 1.77 2.41 1.23
Production
Imports
Exports
38.33 0.77 37.56 0.61 0.00 0.01 0.30 0.30 12.24 0.90 1.80 1.00 2.10 1.60 3.25
Total /2 Domestic 468.11 3.58 464.53 127.97 93.57 2.80 9.10 22.50 76.66 7.90 3.55 37.80 6.00 12.90 5.58
472.96 6.13 466.83 154.59 104.41 6.80 15.80 27.58 63.28 7.21 2.05 36.20 3.53 11.00 1.89
0.75 0.44 69.00 0.92 2.82 0.17 1.41
12.16 1.49 145.77 4.00 7.67 0.16 4.33
0.03 1.90 4.80 0.10 0.71 0.69 0.31
10.40 3.29 140.80 3.90 8.60 0.89 4.21
1.30 0.04 0.27 0.20 0.05 0.00 0.00
40.34 3.40 36.95 29.40 10.24 4.20 9.87 5.09 0.84 0.55 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Beginning Stoc ks
Production
Imports
Total /2 Domestic
Exports
132.63 1.48 131.16 29.38 18.40 1.02 8.40 1.56 9.82 0.31 1.18 3.51 1.40 2.11 0.80
486.78 7.12 479.67 163.60 110.15 6.85 19.20 27.40 65.94 8.38 2.07 36.86 3.65 11.69 1.96
41.34 0.75 40.59 0.76 0.00 0.01 0.25 0.50 12.13 0.70 1.83 0.30 2.50 1.10 4.05
482.17 4.17 478.00 133.88 96.78 3.10 12.00 22.00 77.27 8.10 3.65 37.50 6.20 12.90 5.78
46.51 3.70 42.81 32.92 11.22 3.60 11.61 6.49 1.02 0.65 0.32 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
1.24 0.50 78.50 0.92 2.55 0.13 1.83
12.65 1.58 144.95 4.80 7.78 0.18 4.20
0.01 1.82 5.30 0.15 0.69 0.87 0.41
10.10 3.39 141.45 4.30 8.50 0.92 4.71
3.20 0.03 0.81 0.10 0.06 0.09 0.00
Ending Stocks 132.63 1.48 131.16 29.38 18.40 1.02 8.40 1.56 9.82 0.31 1.18 3.51 1.40 2.11 0.80 0.00 1.24 0.50 78.50 0.92 2.55 0.13 1.83
Ending Stoc ks
137.24 1.46 135.78 26.94 20.55 1.18 4.24 0.97 9.60 0.64 1.12 3.15 1.35 2.00 1.03 0.00 0.60 0.46 86.50 1.47 2.46 0.17 1.73
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. Total domestic includes both domestic use and unreported disappearance. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, and the EU-28. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries.
February 2018 WASDE - 574 - 25 World Rice Supply and Use (Milled Basis) 1/ (Cont'd.) (Million Metric Tons) Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Total /2 Domestic
Exports
Ending Stocks
Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb
138.11 137.24 1.46 1.46 136.65 135.78 27.54 26.94 20.55 20.55 1.18 1.18 4.85 4.24 0.96 0.97 9.89 9.60 0.64 0.64 1.12 1.12 3.44 3.15 1.35 1.35 2.00 2.00 1.03 1.03
484.71 484.33 5.66 5.66 479.05 478.67 163.55 163.55 107.50 107.50 7.20 7.20 20.40 20.40 28.45 28.45 65.92 65.92 7.82 7.82 2.09 2.09 37.00 37.00 3.65 3.65 11.97 11.97 1.96 1.96
44.57 46.36 0.79 0.79 43.78 45.57 0.65 0.65 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.25 0.40 0.40 12.42 13.00 0.63 0.70 1.90 1.90 0.30 0.80 2.60 2.60 1.30 1.30 3.85 3.85
481.75 480.78 3.81 3.81 477.94 476.97 134.85 134.45 97.75 97.55 3.30 3.30 11.50 11.50 22.30 22.10 77.50 77.67 7.95 8.03 3.75 3.75 37.30 37.40 6.40 6.40 12.90 12.90 5.95 5.95
45.82 46.84 3.18 3.18 42.65 43.66 32.50 33.20 12.00 12.50 3.80 3.80 10.20 10.20 6.50 6.70 0.93 0.93 0.60 0.60 0.28 0.28 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
141.08 140.79 0.93 0.93 140.15 139.87 24.39 23.49 18.30 18.00 1.28 1.28 3.80 3.19 1.01 1.02 9.80 9.91 0.54 0.54 1.08 1.08 3.42 3.53 1.21 1.21 2.37 2.37 0.88 0.88
Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb
0.60 0.60 0.46 0.46 86.50 86.50 1.47 1.47 2.46 2.46 0.17 0.17 1.70 1.73
12.95 12.95 1.62 1.62 146.00 146.00 4.30 4.30 7.60 7.60 0.19 0.19 3.97 3.97
0.01 0.01 1.90 1.89 5.25 5.50 0.05 0.05 0.69 0.69 0.85 0.85 0.41 0.41
10.20 10.00 3.53 3.52 142.45 142.70 4.40 4.40 8.45 8.45 0.92 0.92 4.80 4.87
3.00 3.30 0.03 0.03 1.30 1.30 0.10 0.10 0.06 0.06 0.09 0.09 0.00 0.01
0.36 0.26 0.42 0.42 94.00 94.00 1.32 1.32 2.24 2.24 0.20 0.20 1.28 1.23
2017/18 Proj. World 3/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 4/ India Pakistan Thailand Vietnam Major Importers 5/ Brazil European Union 6/ Indonesia Nigeria Philippines Sel. Mideast 7/ Selected Other Burma C. Amer & Carib 8/ China Egypt Japan Mexico South Korea
1/ Aggregate of local marketing years. 2/ Total foreign and world use adjusted to reflect the differences in world imports and exports. Total domestic includes both domestic use and unreported disappearance. 3/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in some countries. 4/ India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Vietnam. 5/ Brazil, Indonesia, Hong Kong, Cote d'Ivoire, Nigeria, Philippines, selected Middle East, and the EU-28. 6/ Trade excludes intra-trade. 7/ Selected Middle East includes Iran, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia. 8/ Central American and Caribbean countries.
February 2018 WASDE - 574 - 26 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-Pound Bales)
2015/16 World United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 4/ Central Asia 5/ Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ S. Hemis 7/ Australia Brazil India Major Importers 8/ Mexico China European Union 9/ Turkey Pakistan Indonesia Thailand Bangladesh Vietnam
2016/17 Est. World United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 4/ Central Asia 5/ Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ S. Hemis 7/ Australia Brazil India Major Importers 8/ Mexico China European Union 9/ Turkey Pakistan Indonesia Thailand Bangladesh Vietnam
Beginning Stocks
Production
Imports
Domestic Use
Exports
Loss /2
Ending Stocks
111.15 3.65 107.50 29.72 3.01 2.15 10.80 1.82 7.53 13.49 75.89 0.69 66.92 0.34 1.60 2.89 0.60 0.22 1.33 0.68
96.14 12.89 83.25 46.55 5.97 4.20 9.97 2.85 5.90 25.90 34.00 0.94 22.00 1.28 2.65 7.00 0.01 3/ 0.12 3/
35.42 0.03 35.39 1.77 3/ 3/ 0.25 3/ 0.09 1.07 31.30 0.98 4.41 0.80 4.22 3.30 2.94 1.28 6.40 4.50
112.26 3.45 108.81 32.48 2.63 0.13 4.22 0.04 3.10 24.75 72.20 1.85 35.00 0.81 6.70 10.30 3.00 1.27 6.30 4.40
35.13 9.15 25.98 22.81 4.26 4.87 7.67 2.83 4.31 5.76 2.07 0.13 0.13 1.31 0.23 0.25 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
-0.02 0.17 -0.19 -0.28 0.00 0.00 -0.29 -0.15 -0.15 0.00 0.09 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.01 0.00
95.34 3.80 91.54 23.04 2.09 1.34 9.42 1.96 6.26 9.94 66.83 0.61 58.20 0.30 1.53 2.62 0.53 0.20 1.54 0.78
Beginning Stoc ks
Production
Imports
Domestic Use
Exports
Loss /2
Ending Stoc ks
95.34 3.80 91.54 23.04 2.09 1.34 9.42 1.96 6.26 9.94 66.83 0.61 58.20 0.30 1.53 2.62 0.53 0.20 1.54 0.78
106.57 17.17 89.40 50.75 5.99 5.09 12.31 4.05 7.00 27.00 35.86 0.76 22.75 1.31 3.20 7.70 0.01 3/ 0.13 3/
37.60 0.01 37.59 3.63 3/ 3/ 0.37 3/ 0.19 2.74 31.78 1.00 5.03 0.70 3.68 2.40 3.39 1.23 6.70 5.50
114.75 3.25 111.50 31.97 2.89 0.13 4.29 0.04 3.20 24.00 75.57 1.75 37.50 0.72 6.50 10.30 3.30 1.20 6.70 5.40
37.22 14.92 22.30 19.17 2.79 4.52 7.05 3.73 2.79 4.55 2.04 0.15 0.06 1.33 0.33 0.13 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
-0.12 0.06 -0.18 -0.27 0.00 0.01 -0.29 -0.15 -0.15 0.00 0.09 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.03 0.01 0.00
87.66 2.75 84.91 26.55 2.39 1.77 11.05 2.39 7.61 11.13 56.78 0.44 48.42 0.27 1.58 2.27 0.62 0.20 1.66 0.88
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
February 2018 WASDE - 574 - 27 World Cotton Supply and Use 1/ (Million 480-Pound Bales) Beginning Production Stocks
2017/18 Proj. World United States Total Foreign
Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb
87.64 87.66 2.75 2.75 84.89 84.91
Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb
26.54 26.55 2.39 2.39 1.77 1.77 11.05 11.05 2.39 2.39 7.61 7.61 11.13 11.13
Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb
56.78 56.78 0.44 0.44 48.42 48.42 0.27 0.27 1.58 1.58 2.27 2.27 0.62 0.62 0.20 0.20 1.66 1.66 0.88 0.88
filler
Major Exporters 4/ Central Asia 5/ Afr. Fr. Zone 6/ S. Hemis 7/ Australia Brazil India
filler
Major Importers 8/ Mexico China European Union 9/ Turkey Pakistan Indonesia Thailand Bangladesh Vietnam
120.97 121.37 21.26 21.26 99.70 100.11 filler
55.11 54.44 6.32 6.32 5.14 5.16 13.90 14.00 4.60 4.40 7.80 8.00 29.30 28.50 filler
41.79 42.89 1.54 1.54 26.40 27.50 1.52 1.52 4.00 4.00 8.20 8.20 3/ 3/ 3/ 3/ 0.13 0.13 3/ 3/
Imports
Domestic Use
Exports
Loss /2
Ending Stocks
38.37 38.23 0.01 0.01 38.36 38.22
120.83 120.50 3.35 3.35 117.48 117.15
38.38 38.22 14.80 14.50 23.58 23.72
-0.02 -0.02 0.17 0.17 -0.20 -0.19
87.79 88.55 5.70 6.00 82.09 82.55
filler
2.40 2.46 3/ 3/ 3/ 3/ 0.30 0.26 3/ 3/ 0.13 0.10 1.60 1.70 filler
33.52 33.32 0.83 0.83 5.00 5.00 0.71 0.71 3.50 3.50 2.70 2.70 3.50 3.50 1.25 1.05 7.25 7.25 6.60 6.60
filler
33.20 32.94 3.23 3.20 0.13 0.13 4.45 4.47 0.04 0.04 3.40 3.40 24.75 24.50 filler
80.25 80.20 1.85 1.85 40.00 40.00 0.74 0.74 7.00 7.00 10.40 10.40 3.45 3.45 1.20 1.05 7.20 7.20 6.25 6.35
filler
20.21 20.39 2.50 2.75 4.36 4.19 8.78 8.99 4.30 4.40 4.10 4.20 4.30 4.20 filler
2.37 2.37 0.30 0.30 0.05 0.05 1.41 1.41 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
filler
-0.29 -0.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.30 -0.29 -0.15 -0.15 -0.15 -0.15 0.00 0.00 filler
0.09 0.09 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00
filler
30.93 30.40 2.98 2.76 2.42 2.62 12.31 12.15 2.81 2.51 8.18 8.26 12.98 12.63 filler
49.39 50.34 0.63 0.63 39.77 40.87 0.36 0.36 1.78 1.78 2.44 2.44 0.67 0.67 0.23 0.18 1.82 1.82 1.24 1.14
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may not add exactly and trade may not balance due to rounding and other factors. 2/ Generally reflects cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia, Brazil, China, and the United States, reflects the difference between implicit stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending stocks. 3/ Less than 5,000 bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in addition to the countries and regions listed. 5/ Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin, Burkino Faso, Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Cote d'Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. 7/ Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Lesotho, Paraguay, South Africa, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries and regions listed, includes Hong Kong, Japan, Russia, South Korea, and Taiwan. 9/ Includes intra-EU trade.
February 2018 WASDE - 574 - 28 World Soybean Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) Beginning Production Stocks
2015/16 World 2/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 3/ Argentina Brazil Paraguay Major Importers 4/ China European Union Japan Mexico
77.73 5.19 72.55 50.72 31.70 18.93 0.07 18.85 17.01 0.84 0.21 0.11
2016/17 Est. World 2/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 3/ Argentina Brazil Paraguay Major Importers 4/ China European Union Japan Mexico
313.77 106.86 206.91 164.73 56.80 96.50 9.22 15.48 11.79 2.32 0.24 0.34
Imports
Domestic Crush
Domestic Total
Exports
Ending Stocks
133.33 0.64 132.69 1.12 0.68 0.41 0.01 113.50 83.23 15.12 3.19 4.13
275.31 51.34 223.97 86.89 43.27 39.75 3.80 106.83 81.50 14.95 2.28 4.40
314.35 54.47 259.88 94.85 47.65 43.25 3.86 127.77 95.00 16.58 3.38 4.43
132.55 52.86 79.69 71.88 9.92 54.38 5.40 0.32 0.11 0.14 0.00 0.00
77.92 5.35 72.57 49.84 31.60 18.20 0.03 19.73 16.91 1.56 0.26 0.15
Beginning Stoc ks
Production
Imports
Domestic Crush
Domestic Total
Exports
Ending Stoc ks
77.92 5.35 72.57 49.84 31.60 18.20 0.03 19.73 16.91 1.56 0.26 0.15
351.32 116.92 234.40 185.78 57.80 114.10 10.67 16.80 12.90 2.38 0.24 0.51
144.25 0.61 143.64 1.96 1.67 0.25 0.01 122.51 93.50 13.38 3.18 4.13
288.54 51.68 236.86 88.25 43.30 40.90 3.85 113.24 88.00 14.40 2.39 4.60
330.14 55.51 274.63 96.51 47.83 44.55 3.92 135.92 102.80 16.04 3.45 4.64
147.22 59.16 88.06 79.19 7.03 63.14 6.13 0.39 0.11 0.22 0.00 0.00
96.14 8.21 87.93 61.87 36.22 24.86 0.66 22.73 20.39 1.06 0.21 0.15
Beginning Stoc ks
Production
Imports
Domestic Crush
Domestic Total
Exports
Ending Stoc ks
96.49 96.14 8.21 8.21 88.28 87.93 62.23 61.87 36.42 36.22 24.86 24.86 0.82 0.66 22.73 22.73 20.39 20.39 1.06 1.06 0.21 0.21 0.15 0.15
348.57 346.92 119.52 119.52 229.05 227.40 177.92 177.72 56.00 54.00 110.00 112.00 9.40 9.20 18.20 18.20 14.20 14.20 2.50 2.50 0.26 0.26 0.48 0.48
150.17 150.24 0.68 0.68 149.49 149.56 1.93 1.93 1.70 1.70 0.20 0.20 0.01 0.01 127.25 127.30 97.00 97.00 14.00 14.00 3.30 3.30 4.30 4.30
301.45 300.10 53.07 53.07 248.38 247.03 90.74 89.58 44.84 43.68 42.00 42.00 3.70 3.70 120.68 120.72 95.00 95.00 14.50 14.50 2.35 2.35 4.72 4.72
344.47 343.20 56.83 56.83 287.64 286.37 99.15 98.07 49.45 48.42 45.70 45.65 3.78 3.78 144.56 144.60 110.80 110.80 16.15 16.15 3.51 3.51 4.76 4.76
152.19 151.95 58.79 57.15 93.40 94.80 83.90 85.70 8.50 8.50 67.00 69.00 6.00 5.80 0.40 0.40 0.15 0.15 0.20 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
98.57 98.14 12.79 14.42 85.78 83.71 59.04 57.76 36.17 35.00 22.36 22.41 0.45 0.29 23.23 23.24 20.64 20.64 1.21 1.21 0.26 0.26 0.17 0.17
2017/18 Proj. World 2/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 3/ Argentina Brazil Paraguay Major Importers 4/ China European Union Japan Mexico
Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb
1/ Data based on local marketing years except Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay. 4/ China, European Union, Japan, Mexico, and Southeast Asia (includes Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand).
February 2018 WASDE - 574 - 29 World Soybean Meal Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) Beginning Stocks 13.62 0.24 13.38 8.39 4.03 3.81 0.55 1.96 0.66 1.24
2015/16 World 2/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 3/ Argentina Brazil India Major Importers 4/ European Union Southeast Asia 5/
2016/17 Est. World 2/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 3/ Argentina Brazil India Major Importers 4/ European Union Southeast Asia 5/
Production
Imports
216.10 40.53 175.57 68.52 33.21 30.75 4.56 16.43 11.81 2.89
61.86 0.37 61.49 0.07 0.00 0.03 0.05 36.57 19.21 15.64
Domestic Total 213.38 30.04 183.34 23.57 2.67 16.27 4.63 52.49 30.84 18.20
Exports 65.42 10.84 54.58 46.15 30.33 15.41 0.41 0.51 0.30 0.21
Ending Stocks 12.77 0.24 12.53 7.26 4.23 2.91 0.12 1.94 0.53 1.36
Beginning Stoc ks
Production
Imports
Domestic Total
Exports
Ending Stoc ks
12.77 0.24 12.53 7.26 4.23 2.91 0.12 1.94 0.53 1.36
226.45 40.58 185.87 72.30 33.28 31.66 7.36 16.19 11.38 3.01
59.80 0.32 59.49 0.05 0.00 0.04 0.01 36.00 18.86 15.51
221.99 30.25 191.74 24.70 2.85 16.84 5.01 52.32 30.24 18.65
64.68 10.52 54.15 47.09 31.32 13.76 2.00 0.53 0.33 0.20
12.35 0.36 11.99 7.81 3.33 4.00 0.48 1.28 0.20 1.03
Beginning Stoc ks
Production
Imports
Domestic Total
Exports
Ending Stoc ks
12.38 12.35 0.36 0.36 12.02 11.99 7.81 7.81 3.33 3.33 4.00 4.00 0.48 0.48 1.26 1.28 0.17 0.20 1.05 1.03
236.73 235.61 41.82 41.82 194.91 193.79 74.12 72.99 34.42 33.47 32.50 32.50 7.20 7.02 16.45 16.48 11.46 11.46 3.22 3.25
63.47 63.42 0.27 0.27 63.20 63.15 0.04 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.01 37.58 37.53 19.20 19.20 16.63 16.58
233.12 233.07 31.12 31.12 202.00 201.95 25.99 25.99 3.06 3.06 17.48 17.48 5.45 5.45 53.37 53.30 30.34 30.34 19.51 19.44
67.18 67.08 11.07 11.07 56.11 56.01 48.25 48.15 31.20 31.20 15.25 15.25 1.80 1.70 0.50 0.50 0.30 0.30 0.20 0.20
12.28 11.24 0.27 0.27 12.01 10.97 7.74 6.70 3.50 2.55 3.80 3.80 0.44 0.36 1.42 1.48 0.18 0.21 1.19 1.22
2017/18 Proj. World 2/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 3/ Argentina Brazil India Major Importers 4/ European Union Southeast Asia 5/
Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb
1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil, and India. 4/ European Union, Southeast Asia, and Japan. 5/ Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, and Thailand.
February 2018 WASDE - 574 - 30 World Soybean Oil Supply and Use 1/ (Million Metric Tons) Beginning Stocks 4.32 0.84 3.48 0.95 0.37 0.38 0.20 1.57 0.78 0.52 0.27
2015/16 World 2/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 3/ Argentina Brazil European Union Major Importers 4/ China India North Africa 5/
2016/17 Est. World 2/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 3/ Argentina Brazil European Union Major Importers 4/ China India North Africa 5/
Production
Imports
51.59 9.96 41.64 18.90 8.43 7.63 2.84 15.95 14.61 1.03 0.32
11.63 0.13 11.50 0.39 0.00 0.07 0.33 6.85 0.59 4.27 2.00
Domestic Total 52.21 9.15 43.06 11.41 2.83 6.29 2.29 22.99 15.35 5.30 2.34
Exports 11.77 1.02 10.75 8.16 5.70 1.55 0.92 0.17 0.10 0.00 0.07
Ending Stocks 3.57 0.77 2.81 0.67 0.27 0.24 0.16 1.21 0.52 0.51 0.18
Beginning Stoc ks
Production
Imports
Domestic Total
Exports
Ending Stoc ks
3.57 0.77 2.81 0.67 0.27 0.24 0.16 1.21 0.52 0.51 0.18
53.95 10.02 43.93 18.98 8.40 7.85 2.74 17.93 15.77 1.66 0.50
10.94 0.15 10.79 0.35 0.00 0.06 0.29 5.81 0.71 3.53 1.56
53.85 9.00 44.86 11.77 2.97 6.59 2.21 23.80 16.35 5.40 2.05
11.31 1.16 10.15 7.47 5.39 1.24 0.84 0.21 0.12 0.00 0.09
3.29 0.78 2.52 0.76 0.31 0.32 0.14 0.94 0.54 0.30 0.11
Beginning Stoc ks
Production
Imports
Domestic Total
Exports
Ending Stoc ks
3.25 3.29 0.78 0.78 2.47 2.52 0.76 0.76 0.31 0.31 0.32 0.32 0.14 0.14 0.94 0.94 0.54 0.54 0.30 0.30 0.11 0.11
56.15 55.93 10.22 10.22 45.93 45.72 19.45 19.26 8.63 8.44 8.06 8.06 2.76 2.76 19.21 19.17 17.02 17.02 1.62 1.58 0.57 0.57
11.20 11.06 0.14 0.14 11.06 10.93 0.31 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.25 0.25 6.06 5.91 0.50 0.50 3.80 3.65 1.76 1.76
56.10 55.97 9.57 9.57 46.53 46.40 11.90 11.92 3.05 3.05 6.70 6.72 2.16 2.16 25.04 24.84 17.40 17.40 5.40 5.20 2.24 2.24
11.37 11.25 0.86 0.86 10.50 10.39 7.87 7.77 5.60 5.50 1.45 1.45 0.82 0.82 0.18 0.18 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.08
3.13 3.07 0.70 0.70 2.43 2.37 0.75 0.64 0.29 0.20 0.29 0.27 0.17 0.17 1.00 1.00 0.56 0.56 0.32 0.32 0.12 0.12
2017/18 Proj. World 2/ United States Total Foreign Major Exporters 3/ Argentina Brazil European Union Major Importers 4/ China India North Africa 5/
Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb Jan Feb
1/ Data based on local marketing years except for Argentina and Brazil which are adjusted to an October-September year. 2/ World imports and exports may not balance due to differences in local marketing years and to time lags between reported exports and imports. Therefore, world supply may not equal world use. 3/ Argentina, Brazil and European Union. 4/ China, India, and North Africa. 5/ Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, and Tunisia.
February 2018 WASDE - 574 - 31 U.S. Quarterly Animal Product Production 1/ Year and Quarter
Beef
Pork Red Meat 2/
Broiler
Turkey
Total Red Meat Poultry 3/ & Poultry
Egg
Milk
2016 Annual
25,221
24,941
50,387
Million Pounds 40,696 5,981
47,226
97,613
Mil doz 8,565
Bil lbs 212.4
2017 I II III IV Annual Jan Est. Feb Est.
6,300 6,404 6,731 6,738
6,409 6,137 6,239 6,796
12,764 12,595 13,023 13,591
10,233 10,407 10,551 10,468
1,487 1,481 1,479 1,532
11,848 12,023 12,167 12,135
24,612 24,618 25,191 25,725
2,174 2,175 2,187 2,222
53.6 55.3 53.5 53.1
26,175 26,173
25,585 25,581
51,978 51,972
41,591 41,659
5,987 5,979
48,113 48,173
100,091 100,145
8,756 8,758
215.5 215.4
6,570 7,175 6,885 7,095
6,595 6,440 6,580 7,270
13,220 13,667 13,518 14,421
10,475 10,675 10,800 10,650
1,465 1,470 1,490 1,545
12,073 12,285 12,430 12,330
25,293 25,952 25,948 26,751
2,205 2,215 2,240 2,285
54.2 56.1 54.2 54.2
27,760 27,725
26,960 26,885
54,940 54,826
42,450 42,600
6,000 5,970
48,998 49,118
103,938 103,944
8,955 8,945
218.8 218.7
2018 I* II* III* IV* Annual Jan Proj. Feb Proj.
* Projection. 1/ Commercial production for red meats; federally inspected for poultry meats. 2/ Beef, pork, veal and lamb & mutton. 3/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken.
U.S. Quarterly Prices for Animal Products Steers 2/
Barrows and gilts 3/
Broilers 4/
Turkeys 5/
Eggs 6/
Milk 7/
Dol./cwt 120.86
Dol./cwt 46.16
Cents/lb. 84.3
Cents/lb. 117.1
Cents/doz. 85.7
Dol./cwt 16.30
2017 I II III IV Annual Jan Est. Feb Est.
122.96 132.76 112.46 117.88
49.73 51.70 55.59 44.89
88.5 104.7 94.9 86.1
100.4 99.1 96.9 88.0
80.0 74.7 102.1 147.0
18.23 16.83 17.70 17.73
121.52 121.52
50.48 50.48
93.5 93.5
96.1 96.1
100.9 100.9
17.65 17.63
2018 I* II* III* IV* Annual Jan Proj. Feb Proj.
122-126 117-125 110-120 112-122
49-51 49-53 47-51 40-44
93-95 92-98 84-92 83-89
79-81 87-93 91-99 96-104
133-137 101-107 106-114 115-125
15.45-15.75 15.20-15.80 15.55-16.45 16.60-17.60
114-122 116-123
46-49 47-49
87-94 88-94
88-94 88-94
101-108 114-121
15.80-16.60 15.70-16.40
Year and Quarter
2016 Annual
*Projection. 1/ Simple average of months. 2/ 5-Area, Direct, Total all grades 3/ National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean. 4/ Wholesale, National Composite Weighted Average. 5/ 8-16 lbs, hens National. 6/ Grade A large, New York, volume buyers. 7/ Prices received by farmers for all milk.
February 2018 WASDE - 574 - 32 U.S. Meats Supply and Use Beginning Production stocks 1/
Item
Beef
Pork
Total Red Meat 5/
Broiler
Turkey
Total Poultry 6/
Red Meat & Poultry
2016 2017 Est. Jan Feb 2018 Proj. Jan Feb 2016 2017 Est. Jan Feb 2018 Proj. Jan Feb 2016 2017 Est. Jan Feb 2018 Proj. Jan Feb 2016 2017 Est. Jan Feb 2018 Proj. Jan Feb 2016 2017 Est. Jan Feb 2018 Proj. Jan Feb 2016 2017 Est. Jan Feb 2018 Proj. Jan Feb 2016 2017 Est. Jan Feb 2018 Proj. Jan Feb
Imports
Total Supply
Exports
Ending Stocks
Total Per Capita Use 2/ 3/
Million Pounds /4 28,986 2,556 29,975 2,875 29,991 2,862 31,537 2,985 31,473 3,025
757 680 651 715 700
25,673 26,420 26,478 27,837 27,748
55.6 56.8 56.9 59.4 59.2
683 757 757 680 651
25,288 26,242 26,240 27,827 27,792
3,015 2,976 2,994 3,030 3,030
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
590 507 507 550 555
24,956 25,601 25,597 26,976 26,901
1,091 1,113 1,116 1,000 1,000
26,637 27,221 27,220 28,526 28,456
5,239 5,623 5,632 5,900 5,900
507 550 555 660 660
20,891 21,048 21,033 21,966 21,896
50.1 50.2 50.1 52.0 51.8
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
1,320 1,304 1,304 1,274 1,249
50,480 52,071 52,065 55,033 54,919
4,322 4,342 4,362 4,284 4,284
56,123 57,717 57,731 60,591 60,452
7,801 8,505 8,500 8,893 8,933
1,304 1,274 1,249 1,419 1,402
47,018 47,938 47,982 50,279 50,117
106.9 108.2 108.3 112.7 112.3
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
832 778 778 885 855
40,261 41,146 41,213 41,996 42,144
131 125 126 130 130
41,224 42,049 42,117 43,011 43,129
6,644 6,783 6,780 6,910 6,950
778 885 855 830 830
33,802 34,381 34,483 35,271 35,349
89.8 90.7 91.0 92.4 92.6
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
201 279 279 325 311
5,981 5,987 5,979 6,000 5,970
50 25 24 32 32
6,232 6,291 6,282 6,357 6,313
569 623 621 655 645
279 325 311 300 300
5,384 5,343 5,350 5,402 5,368
16.6 16.4 16.4 16.5 16.4
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
1,041 1,065 1,065 1,216 1,170
46,790 47,668 47,727 48,543 48,662
184 153 154 166 166
48,015 48,886 48,945 49,925 49,998
7,372 7,539 7,531 7,710 7,740
1,065 1,216 1,170 1,138 1,138
39,578 40,131 40,244 41,077 41,120
107.6 108.4 108.7 110.1 110.2
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
Filler
2,361 2,369 2,369 2,490 2,419
97,270 99,739 99,792 103,576 103,581
4,506 4,495 4,515 4,450 4,450
104,137 106,603 106,676 110,516 110,450
15,173 16,044 16,032 16,603 16,673
2,369 2,490 2,419 2,557 2,540
86,596 88,069 88,225 91,356 91,237
214.6 216.6 217.0 222.8 222.6
1/ Total including farm production for red meats and, for poultry, federally inspected plus non-federally inspected, less condemnations. 2/ Pounds, retail-weight basis for red meat and broilers; certified ready-to-cook weight for turkey. 3/ Population source: Dept. of Commerce. 4/ Carcass weight for red meats and certified ready-to-cook weight for poultry. 5/ Beef, pork, veal, lamb and mutton. 6/ Broilers, turkeys and mature chicken.
February 2018 WASDE - 574 - 33 U.S. Egg Supply and Use 2015
2016
2017 Est.
2017 Est.
2018 Proj.
2018 Proj.
Jan
Feb
Jan
Feb
Commodity
Eggs Supply Beginning Stocks Production Imports Total Supply Use Exports Hatching Use Ending Stocks Disappearance Total Per Capita (number)
Million Dozen 23.3 8,053.0 123.5 8,199.8
31.1 8,565.0 121.9 8,718.0
27.1 8,756.3 32.4 8,815.8
27.1 8,758.3 32.3 8,817.7
20.0 8,955.0 40.0 9,015.0
22.8 8,945.0 40.0 9,007.8
313.6 995.6 31.1
279.0 1,009.6 27.1
323.0 1,033.7 20.0
321.1 1,034.4 22.8
320.0 1,050.0 27.0
320.0 1,050.0 27.0
6,859.4 256.3
7,402.3 274.7
7,439.1 274.2
7,439.4 274.2
7,618.0 278.9
7,610.8 278.6
2017 Est.
2017 Est.
2018 Proj.
2018 Proj.
Jan
Feb
Jan
Feb
Billion Pounds 215.5 215.4 1.0 1.0
218.8 1.0
218.7 1.0
Total
U.S. Milk Supply and Use 2015
2016
Commodity Milk
Production Farm Use Fat Basis Supply Beg. Commercial Stocks Marketings Imports Total Cml. Supply Fat Basis Use Commercial Exports Ending Commercial Stocks CCC Donations Domestic Commercial Use Skim-solid Basis Supply Beg. Commercial Stocks Marketings Imports Total Cml. Supply Skim-solid Basis Use Commercial Exports Ending Commercial Stocks CCC Donations Domestic Commercial Use
208.6 1.0
212.4 1.0
10.5 207.6 5.8 223.9
12.3 211.4 7.0 230.8
12.7 214.5 6.0 233.3
12.7 214.4 6.0 233.2
13.6 217.8 6.0 237.4
13.5 217.7 6.0 237.3
8.5 12.3 0.0 203.0
8.4 12.7 0.0 209.7
9.3 13.6 0.0 210.4
9.3 13.5 0.0 210.4
9.5 12.8 0.0 215.1
9.5 12.9 0.0 214.9
9.4 207.6 6.0 223.1
9.2 211.4 6.5 227.1
9.5 214.5 6.0 230.1
9.5 214.4 6.1 230.0
12.2 217.8 5.9 236.0
11.9 217.7 6.0 235.7
37.3 9.2 0.0 176.6
39.0 9.5 0.0 178.5
40.4 12.2 0.0 177.4
40.8 11.9 0.0 177.3
42.0 11.6 0.0 182.4
42.5 11.6 0.0 181.6
Total
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.
February 2018 WASDE - 574 - 34 U.S. Dairy Prices 2015
2016
1.6454
1.6050
Butter
2.0670
2.0777
2.3303
2.3303
Nonfat Dry Milk
0.9016
0.8292
0.8666
0.8666
Dry Whey
0.3804
0.2875
0.4437
0.4437
Commodity Product Prices 1/ Cheese
2017 Est. Jan
2017 Est. Feb
Dollars Per Pound 1.6344 1.6344
2018 Proj. Jan
2018 Proj. Feb
1.5351.615 2.2452.355 0.7150.775 0.2700.300
1.5301.600 2.1952.295 0.7150.775 0.2700.300
14.2515.05 13.5514.45 15.8016.60
14.2014.90 13.3514.15 15.7016.40
Filler
Dollars Per Cwt Milk Prices 2/ Class III
15.80
14.87
16.17
16.17
Class IV
14.35
13.77
15.16
15.16
All Milk 3/
17.13
16.30
17.65
17.63
1/ Simple average of monthly prices calculated by AMS from weekly average dairy product prices for class price computations. 2/ Annual Class III and Class IV prices are the simple averages of monthly minimum Federal order milk prices paid by regulated plants for milk used in the respective classes. All milk price is the simple average of monthly prices received by farmers for milk at average test. 3/ Does not reflect any deductions from producers as authorized by legislation.
February 2018 WASDE - 574 - 35 Reliability of February Projections 1/ Note: Tables on pages 35-37 present a record of the February projection and the final Estimate. Using world wheat production as an example, the "root mean square error" means that chances are 2 out of 3 that the current forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 0.6 percent. Chances are 9 out of 10 (90% confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 1 percent. The average difference between the February projection and the final estimate is 2.4 million tons, ranging from 0 million to 7.3 million tons. The February projection has been below the estimate 27 times and above 9 times.
Commodity and Region WHEAT Production World U.S. Foreign Exports World U.S. Foreign Domestic Use World U.S. Foreign Ending Stocks World U.S. Foreign COARSE GRAINS 2/ Production World U.S. Foreign Exports World U.S. Foreign Domestic Use World U.S. Foreign Ending Stocks World U.S. Foreign RICE, milled Production World U.S. Foreign Exports World U.S. Foreign Domestic Use World U.S. Foreign Ending Stocks World U.S. Foreign 1/ Footnotes at end of table.
90 percent Root mean confidence square error interval Percent
Differences between forecast and final estimate Years Below Above Average Smallest Largest Final Final Million Metric Tons
0.6 0.2 0.7
1.0 0.3 1.1
2.4 0.1 2.4
0.0 0.0 0.0
7.3 0.3 7.3
27 15 27
9 10 9
4.8 3.9 5.9
8.2 6.6 9.9
4.9 1.0 4.7
0.1 0.0 0.5
18.8 3.0 18.4
28 19 31
8 16 5
1.0 3.9 1.1
1.8 6.6 1.8
4.7 0.9 4.4
0.1 0.0 0.1
15.6 2.4 15.1
16 12 20
20 23 16
4.6 8.5 5.2
7.9 14.4 8.8
5.5 1.3 4.9
0.1 0.0 0.3
18.2 4.5 17.0
24 24 23
12 12 13
1.3 0.2 1.8
2.1 0.3 3.0
10.4 0.1 10.5
0.0 0.0 0.0
36.3 1.3 36.3
29 17 27
7 7 8
6.0 10.2 9.6
10.2 17.3 16.4
5.8 3.8 5.3
0.5 0.1 0.1
27.7 12.2 23.4
29 18 26
7 18 10
1.1 3.0 1.3
1.9 5.0 2.2
7.7 4.0 7.4
0.1 0.2 0.5
31.3 17.3 33.0
18 13 23
18 23 13
9.4 14.0 11.7
16.0 23.8 19.8
11.8 5.0 9.5
0.2 0.0 0.8
29.9 18.5 28.2
31 19 31
5 17 5
1.6 1.5 1.6
2.7 2.6 2.7
4.3 0.1 4.3
0.1 0.0 0.1
14.0 0.3 14.0
28 12 28
8 6 8
8.6 7.3 9.6
14.7 12.5 16.3
1.5 0.2 1.5
0.0 0.0 0.0
5.2 0.6 5.0
28 19 27
8 15 9
1.3 7.1 1.3
2.2 12.0 2.3
3.4 0.2 3.4
0.2 0.0 0.1
13.3 0.4 13.0
23 14 23
13 22 13
9.3 19.5 9.5
15.7 33.1 16.1
4.8 0.2 4.8
0.2 0.0 0.0
27.0 0.5 26.9
29 7 20 16 29 6 CONTINUED
February 2018 WASDE - 574 - 36 Reliability of February Projections (Continued) 1/ Differences between forecast and final estimate 90 percent Years Root mean confidence Below Above Commodity and square error interval Average Smallest Largest Final Final Region SOYBEANS Percent Million Metric Tons Production World 2.8 4.7 4.3 0.4 15.3 22 14 U.S. 1.3 2.3 0.6 0.0 2.5 15 15 Foreign 4.7 8.0 4.4 0.3 14.9 23 13 Exports World 6.3 10.6 2.8 0.1 12.0 24 12 U.S. 7.3 12.4 1.7 0.2 6.7 24 12 Foreign 15.8 26.9 2.5 0.0 11.6 17 19 Domestic Use World 2.3 3.8 3.0 0.0 10.9 20 16 U.S. 3.0 5.2 1.1 0.0 3.0 24 12 Foreign 2.7 4.6 2.6 0.0 12.5 20 16 Ending Stocks World 14.5 24.6 4.0 0.0 19.3 20 16 U.S. 41.7 70.7 2.0 0.1 6.9 10 26 Foreign 15.9 27.1 3.5 0.2 19.1 23 13 COTTON Million 480-Pound Bales Production World 2.4 4.1 1.8 0.0 5.4 26 10 U.S. 1.0 1.7 0.1 0.0 0.3 14 21 Foreign 2.9 4.9 1.8 0.1 5.7 26 10 Exports World 5.6 9.6 1.4 0.0 7.9 23 13 U.S. 10.3 17.5 0.7 0.0 2.2 20 15 Foreign 7.2 12.1 1.2 0.1 7.2 22 14 Domestic Use World 2.3 3.9 1.7 0.3 6.5 19 17 U.S. 4.6 7.7 0.2 0.0 0.9 22 13 Foreign 2.3 4.0 1.6 0.4 6.3 20 16 Ending Stocks World 9.5 16.1 3.3 0.0 8.9 22 13 U.S. 20.2 34.2 0.7 0.0 2.1 11 25 Foreign 10.4 17.7 3.3 0.1 9.3 24 12 1/ Marketing years 1981/82 through 2016/17 for grains, soybeans, and cotton. Final for grains, soybeans, and cotton is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year for 1981/82 through 2016/17. 2/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain.
February 2018 WASDE - 574 - 37 Reliability of United States February Projections 1/ Differences between forecast and final estimate
CORN Production Exports Domestic Use Ending Stocks SORGHUM Production Exports Domestic Use Ending Stocks BARLEY Production Exports Domestic Use Ending Stocks OATS Production Exports Domestic Use Ending Stocks SOYBEAN MEAL Production Exports Domestic Use Ending Stocks SOYBEAN OIL Production Exports Domestic Use Ending Stocks
90 percent Root mean confidence square error interval Percent 0.2 0.3 10.7 18.2 2.9 4.9 16.0 27.1
Years Average Smallest Million Bushels 3 0 137 9 136 7 198 8
Largest
Below Final
Above Final
41 384 474 838
2 16 15 21
2 20 21 15
0.1 15.0 14.3 42.3
0.2 25.5 24.3 71.8
0 26 31 25
0 0 1 1
4 97 178 148
0 24 15 12
2 10 21 24
0.8 21.6 5.8 11.7
1.3 36.7 9.9 19.9
1 6 15 12
0 0 0 0
11 35 70 52
16 12 15 24
4 21 19 11
0.3 51.8 4.6 16.8
0.6 87.9 7.8 28.4
2 3 36 47
4 7 15 20
4 8 21 16
2.9 9.2 2.6 35.4
4.9 15.7 4.5 60.1
2,340 2,250 2,066 214
27 28 21 15
9 8 15 19
2.9 21.9 3.0 19.3
4.8 37.2 5.2 32.8
1,173 1,025 1,261 1,131
25 20 23 21
11 16 12 15
ANIMAL PROD.
0 0 1 0 11 1 12 1 Thousand Short Tons 810 35 578 1 568 7 63 0 Million Pounds 379 7 273 25 372 0 277 25 Million Pounds
Beef Pork Broilers Turkeys
2.9 3.0 1.6 2.9
4.9 5.2 2.8 4.9
582 9 374 10 351 16 121 2 Million Dozen
1,613 1,717 1,011 465
24 22 22 19
11 13 13 16
Eggs
1.8
3.1
96 6 Billion Pounds
525
21
14
Milk 1.3 2.3 1.5 0.0 5.7 18 13 1/ See pages 35 and 36 for record of reliability for U.S. wheat, rice, soybeans, and cotton. Marketing years 1981/82 through 2016/17 for grains, soybeans, and cotton. Final for grains, soybeans, and cotton is defined as the first November estimate following the marketing year for 1981/82 through 2016/17. Calendar years 1982 through 2016 for meats, eggs, and milk. Final for animal products is defined as the latest annual production estimate published by NASS for 1982-2016.
WASDE-574-38
Related USDA Reports The WASDE report incorporates information from a number of statistical reports published by USDA and other government agencies. In turn, the WASDE report provides a framework for more detailed reports issued by USDA’s Economic Research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. For more information on how the WASDE report is prepared, go to: http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde.
Supply and Demand Database The Foreign Agricultural Service publishes Production, Supply, and Demand Online, a comprehensive database of supply and demand balances by commodity for 190 countries and regions at https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index.html. Data for grains, oilseeds, and cotton are updated monthly and data for other commodities are updated less frequently.
Foreign Production Assessments Preliminary foreign production assessments and satellite imagery analysis used to prepare the WASDE report are provided by the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division (PECAD) of the Foreign Agricultural Service. PECAD is located at www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/.
Metric Conversion Factors 1 Hectare = 2.4710 Acres 1 Kilogram = 2.20462 Pounds Metric-Ton Equivalent
= Domestic Unit
Factor
Wheat & Soybeans Rice Corn, Sorghum, & Rye Barley Oats Sugar Cotton
bushels cwt bushels bushels bushels short tons 480-lb bales
.027216 .045359 .025401 .021772 .014515 .907185 .217720
United States Department of Agriculture
USDA’s 94th Annual
Agricultural Outlook Forum
tHe Roots of PRospeRity February 22-23, 2018 Crystal Gateway Marriott Hotel Arlington, Virginia www.usda.gov/oce/forum
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For questions contact: Susan Carter at 202-720-5447 or
[email protected]
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates WASDE-574 – February 8, 2018
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