Yield Outlook - Danske Bank

Investment Research — General Market Conditions

13 October 2017

Yield Outlook Here in Q4, central banks will set the direction for 2018 In past editions of Yield Outlook, we have argued that bond yields (represented by 10Y US Treasuries and German Bunds) are likely to range trade throughout 2017. This is still our view. Over the past month, we have seen a move higher in especially US yields, as we have seen a repricing of the Federal Reserve ahead of the December meeting as well as the market focus on North Korea and the US debt ceiling having abated, which triggered safehaven purchases previously. A continued strong US labour market has also contributed to a move higher in US yields, especially as we now see the first signs of higher wage growth in the US.

Quick links

Eurozone forecasts US forecasts UK forecasts Denmark forecasts Sweden forecasts

Especially, US 10Y yields have moved slightly higher over the past month

Norway forecasts Forecasts table

Policy rate outlook Country

Spot

+3m

+6m

+12m

USD EUR GBP DKK

1.25 -0.40 0.25 -0.65

1.50 -0.40 0.50 -0.65

1.50 -0.40 0.50 -0.65

1.75 -0.40 0.50 -0.65

SEK NOK

-0.50 0.50

-0.50 0.50

-0.50 0.50

-0.50 0.50

Source: Danske Bank

10-year government bond yield outlook Source: Danske Bank

However, this does not mean that we now expect to see a rapid further rise in US yields. The overall inflationary pressure is still low and the zero policy in Japan and continued QE bond purchases in Europe are keeping a lid on long US yields as well. That said, we still think markets are pricing in too few hikes next year (only one additional hike). If our baseline scenario is correct, it should tend to push US yields slightly higher in 2018. We have a 12M forecast of 2.70% for 10Y US Treasury yields. We continue to expect a flattening of the US curve for the 2Y10Y on a 12M horizon. We believe the short end could be pushed higher by Fed rate hikes while the long end could be kept low by investors buying ‘high yielding’ US fixed income assets.

Country

Spot

+3m

+6m

+12m

USD GER GBP

2.34 0.42 1.39

2.40 0.50 1.40

2.50 0.60 1.50

2.70 0.75 1.75

DKK SEK

0.54 0.90

0.65 0.90

0.75 1.10

0.90 1.40

NOK

1.62

1.65

1.75

2.10

Source: Danske Bank, EUR=Germany

In Germany, on the other hand, we expect a modest steeper yield curve for the 2Y10Y in 2018. The ECB maintains a tight grip on the short end of the curve also in 2018. However, this is not the case for the 10Y segment of the curve, which we expect to be pushed by higher US yields and a smaller QE programme. We have a 12M 0.75% forecast for 10Y Germany. Chief Analyst Arne Lohmann Rasmussen +45 45 12 85 32 [email protected]

Important disclosures and certifications are contained from page 12 of this report.

www.danskeresearch.com

Yield Outlook

Future of the ECB QE programme in focus It seems that at the forefront of the discussion is not so much anymore whether the ECB QE programme should be extended into 2018 but rather what the ECB thinks is the most appropriate way to move forward when the Governing Council makes the bulk of its decisions regarding the future of the QE programme at its 26 October meeting. In the minutes from the 6-7 September meeting, the ECB said that ‘within the framework of the Governing Council’s forward guidance, the benefits from a longer intended purchase horizon, combined with a greater reduction in the pace, were compared with those from a shorter period of purchases and larger monthly volumes’. It appears there are two options now on the table: either an extension for six months, with EUR40bn a month in purchases or purchases for nine/12 months but at only EUR20bn or EUR30bn a month. It is also noteworthy that the ECB minutes state that ‘the monetary policy stance would remain highly accommodative in either scenario on account of the range of policy instruments in place, most notably the reinvestment of the principal of maturing securities, the liquidity related to the targeted longer-term refinancing operations, and the forward guidance on the ECB’s key policy rates’. In particular, the discussion regarding the reinvestment flows, which could be as high as EUR15-20bn a month in 2018, is attracting increasingly more attention. It is likely the reinvestment flows will be an important part of the exit discussion that the ECB will, in our view, try to sell as a very ‘soft exit’. We plan to publish an in-depth ECB preview ahead of the 26 October meeting but for now, we stick with the view that the ECB will announce a six-month extension with a monthly pace of EUR40bn. We expect a ‘small’ three-month EUR20bn extension after that. That said, the purchase constraints that make it increasingly difficult for the ECB to buy according to the ‘Capital Key’ in the low-debt countries make a ‘more months but smaller monthly amount path’ more likely.

Fed: on track for a December hike In respect of the Fed, it also released minutes this week. Here, we already know the different positions among the FOMC members. The most dovish FOMC members (Lael Brainard, Charles L. Evans and Neel Kashkari) argued that the Fed should not hike further this year, as low inflation may not be just transitory due to low inflation expectations and labour market slack. The core FOMC members on the other hand think it is appropriate to tighten monetary policy further, as above-trend growth tightens the labour market further, which eventually leads to higher wage growth and hence higher inflation; in other words, they still have a strong belief in the Phillips curve. In our view, they are likely to feel relieved about the latest average hourly earnings figures, which came out much higher than expected in September. All in all, it remains our base case that the Fed will hike in December, as the core voting FOMC members put more weight on labour market data than current inflation data, although we agree with the dovish camp that low inflation may not be temporary due to low inflation expectations. For more, see FOMC minutes: Core members still want to hike in December, 11 October.

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13 October 2017


Yield Outlook

Contents and contributors Eurozone .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................4 Macro

Senior Analyst

Aila Mihr

Interest rates

Chief Analyst

Arne Lohmann Rasmussen +45 45 12 85 32

+45 45 12 85 35

[email protected] [email protected]

US .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................5 Macro & interest rates

Senior Analyst

Mikael Olai Milhøj

+45 45 12 76 07

Interest rates

Chief Analyst



UK .......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................6 Macro & interest rates

Senior Analyst

Morten Helt

+45 45 12 85 18

[email protected]

Denmark ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................7 Macro

Chief Economist

Las Olsen

+45 45 12 85 36

Interest rates

Chief Analyst



Sweden ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................8 Macro & interest rates

Chief Analyst

Michael Boström

+46 (0)8-568 805 87

[email protected]

Senior Analyst

Michael Grahn

+46 (0)8-568 807 00

[email protected]

Senior Analyst

Marcus Söderberg

+46 (0)8-568 805 64

[email protected]

Senior Analyst

Carl Milton

+46 (0)8-568 805 98

[email protected]

Norway ...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................9 Macro & interest rates

Chief Analyst

Jostein Tvedt

+47 23 13 91 84

[email protected]

Forecasts table .................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 10

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13 October 2017


Yield Outlook

Eurozone forecasts 

Economic data in the euro continues to point to an ongoing recovery in 2017 and 2018, with strong PMIs, high consumer confidence and robust industrial production. The recent improvements in macro conditions and especially the uptick in wage growth in Q2 17 will be welcome news for the ECB ahead of its QE recalibration decision at the upcoming October meeting, strengthening its confidence that inflation will eventually return to target due to the closing output gap, and allowing the ECB to gradually reduce monetary accommodation over coming years.



We still expect the ECB to continue its QE purchases in 2018, as the inflation outlook remains muted but likely at a reduced pace of EUR40bn per month in H1 18. That said, the purchase constraints that make it increasingly difficult for the ECB to buy according to the ‘Capital Key’ in the low-debt countries makes a ‘more month’ but smaller monthly amount ‘path’ more likely.



We continue to expect a modest steeper EUR yield curve for the 2Y10Y in 2018. The ECB maintains a tight grip on the short end of the curve. However, this is not the case for the 10Y segment of the curve, which we expect to be pushed by higher US yields and a smaller QE programme. We have a 12M 0.75% forecast for 10Y Germany.

EUR forecasts summary 14/09/2017 EUR

EUR swap curve – one-month change

--- Forecast --Spot +3m +6m

+12m

--- Fcst vs Fwd in bp --+3m +6m +12m

2.0 %

bp 4

1.5

Money market Refi

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

-

-

Deposit

-0.40

-0.40

-0.40

-0.40

-

-

-

3M

-0.33

-0.33

-0.33

-0.33

-

-1

-6

2-year

-0.72

-0.65

-0.60

-0.50

-

-

-

5-year

-0.32

-0.25

-0.20

-0.10

-

-

-

10-year

0.41

0.50

0.60

0.75

-

-

-1

1.0 0.5

Government bonds

Swap rates 2-year

-0.19

-0.10

-0.05

0.00

+5

+5

5-year

0.19

0.25

0.30

0.40

+0

-1

-5

10-year

0.85

0.95

1.05

1.20

+4

+9

+12

0.0 -0.5

0

3

6

9 12 15 18 21 24 27

Change,bp (rhs)

12-Sep-17

Source: Danske Bank

Source: Danske Bank

3M Euribor

10Y EUR swap rates

Source: Macrobond Financial, Danske Bank


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13 October 2017

4 3 3 2 2 1 1 0

12-Oct-17


Yield Outlook

US forecasts 

At the latest meeting, the Fed announced that it has begun the process of shrinking the balance sheet (‘quantitative tightening’) while still signalling another Fed hike this year, likely to be in December. It remains our base case that the Fed will hike in December, as the core voting FOMC members put more weight on labour market data than current inflation data.



It is difficult to say what will happen next year as we do not know who the next Fed Chair will be or who the Fed will nominate for the vacant seats on the Board of Governors. Right now, it seems like it is between Kevin Warsh (hawk) and Jerome H. Powell (neutral). Our base case right now is two hikes next year.



As we wrote in Yield Outlook - Central banks gradually turning more hawkish, 15 September, the markets had priced in a too low probability of a December hike, which has now increased from around 25% to 75%, which seems fair, in our view. We still think markets are pricing in too few hikes next year (only one additional hike). If our baseline scenario is correct, it should tend to push US yields slightly higher. However, we do not see a major sell-off this year. We continue to expect a flattening of the curve for the 2Y10Y on a 12M horizon. We believe the short end could be pushed higher by Fed rate hikes while the long end could be kept low by investors buying ‘high yielding’ US fixed income assets.

USD forecasts summary

USD swap curve – one-month change

12/10/2017 USD


Fed Funds

1.25

1.50

1.50

3M

1.36

1.60

1.73

+12m


3.0 %

bp 25

2.5

Money market 1.75

-

-

-

1.96

+5

+5

+9

20

2.0

15

1.5

Government bonds 2-year

1.51

1.60

1.70

2.00

-

-

-

5-year

1.95

1.95

2.10

2.30

-

-

-

10-year

2.34

2.40

2.50

2.70

-

-

-

Swap rates 2-year

1.77

1.85

1.95

2.25

-1

+3

+23

5-year

2.03

2.05

2.20

2.40

-3

+8

+21

10-year

2.29

2.35

2.45

2.70

+2

+9

+29

10

1.0

5

0.5

0.0

0 0

3

6

9 12 15 18 21 24 27

Change,bp (rhs)

12-Sep-17

Source: Danske Bank

Source: Danske Bank

3M USD Libor rates

10Y USD swap rates



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13 October 2017

12-Oct-17


Yield Outlook

UK forecasts 

We expect the Bank of England (BoE) to hike the Bank Rate by 25bp in November, which is line with consensus and priced in with an 85% probability in the UK money market. In our view, this is merely the BoE taking back the ‘emergency cut’ it delivered in August 2016 (after the Brexit vote) and not necessarily the beginning of a new hiking cycle. We expect the BoE to remain on hold in the coming 12 months after the hike in November.



With a second rate hike priced in by September 2018 and the third in Q2 20, we see market pricing as slightly on the hawkish side, as we do not expect a hike next year. Hence, we see only moderate upside potential to UK yields across the curve ahead of the November meeting, and look for yields to trade around current levels in the coming months. On a 6-12M horizon, we expect the 2Y10Y yield curve to steepen moderately, with the long end of the curve being driven by higher yields in the US and Europe.

UK forecasts summary

UK swap curve – one-month change

13/10/2017 GBP


Repo

0.25

0.50

0.50

3M

0.37

0.52

0.53

+12m


Money market 0.50

-

-

-

0.53

-6

-17

-33

2.0 %

bp 25

20

1.5

15

1.0


0.47

0.55

0.60

0.75

-

+2

+8

5-year

0.82

0.85

0.95

1.20

-7

-2

+11

10-year

1.39

1.40

1.50

1.75

-8

-3

+12

2-year

0.83

0.90

0.95

1.10

-3

-4

+2

5-year

1.11

1.15

1.25

1.50

-1

+5

+22

10-year

1.40

1.45

1.55

1.80

+1

+8

+27

Swap rates

10

0.5

5

0.0

0 0

3

6

9 12 15 18 21 24 27

Change,bp (rhs)

13-Sep-17

Source: Danske Bank

Source: Danske Bank

3M GBP Libor rates

10Y UK swap rates



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13 October 2017

13-Oct-17


Yield Outlook

Denmark forecasts 

We do not expect rate changes from the Danish central bank over the next 12 months. If anything, we could see the central bank intervening in the market to weaken the krone, as fundamentals such as the significant current account surplus are still tending to strengthen the DKK. The 3M Cibor-Euribor has continued to tighten after the widening seen in Q2. High liquidity in the money market is dragging Cita rates lower and dragging Cibor fixings down as well. We expect DKK fixings to remain at the current level or fall to a slightly lower level for the time being.



We have this year seen that DKK swap rates continued to tighten versus EUR swap rates – 10Y and 5Y5Y spreads in particular have tightened. We could see a continuation of this overall trend for the rest of the year, particularly as the fixing-spread has started to tighten.



Danish government bonds have also tightened versus those of Germany this year. The Debt Management Office intends to continue to conduct switches to support liquidity, particularly in the new 2Y and 10Y bonds. The Debt Office also does outright buybacks funded by the booming government account at the central bank. Supply in 2018 is expected to be unchanged at DKK65bn, according to the new budget. Our base scenario expects the bond yield spread to Germany to remain more or less at the current level.

DKK forecasts summary 13/10/2017 DKK

DKK swap curve – one-month change


+12m


Money market

bp 5

1.5

CD

-0.65

-0.65

-0.65

-0.65

-

-

Repo

0.05

0.05

0.05

0.05

-

-

-

3M

-0.30

-0.30

-0.30

-0.30

-1

-3

-11

6M

-0.16

-0.15

-0.15

-6

-9

-15

0.5

2-year

-0.62

-0.55

-0.50

-0.40

-

-

-

5-year

-0.35

-0.30

-0.25

-0.15

-

-

-

0.0

10-year

0.54

0.65

0.75

0.90 Swap rates

-

-

-

2-year

-0.05

0.05

0.10

0.20

+5

+4

+0

5-year

0.38

0.40

0.45

0.60

-5

-7

-7

10-year

1.07

1.15

1.25

1.45

+2

+6

+14

-0.11 Government bonds

-

2.0 %

1.0

-0.5

0

3

6

9 12 15 18 21 24 27

Change,bp (rhs)

13-Sep-17

Source: Danske Bank

Source: Danske Bank

3M Cibor rate

10Y DKK swap rates



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13 October 2017

4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4

13-Oct-17


Yield Outlook

Sweden forecasts 

Inflation moderated further in September and came in slightly on the low side of the Riksbank’s forecast. Therefore, we are likely to have seen the inflation peak and the trend from here points downwards and as of next month we expect to see CPIF inflation on the low side of 2%.



The market is extremely focused on the exact date of the first rate hike. The front end steepened further ahead of the September CPIF release (but flattened again after a lower print). In our view, there should be more focus on another factor – QE – and we expect the Riksbank to stop purchasing government bonds (other than coupon reinvestments) by year-end. As a result, we should see a gradually higher rate in the 5-10Y segment. This will also affect swaps.



A pending issue to monitor closely is recent anecdotal evidence of a cool-off of the housing market on the back of the ongoing construction boom and large supply. Should this prove to become more serious, the outlook for Swedish rates could potentially become quite different than perceived generally.

SEK forecasts summary

SEK swap curve – one-month change

13/10/2017 SEK


Repo

-0.50

-0.50

-0.50

-0.50

-

-

-

3M

-0.52

-0.45

-0.45

-0.45

+3

-8

-29

2-year

-0.69

-0.70

-0.65

-0.50

-

-

-

5-year

-0.03

0.05

0.10

0.20

-

-

-

10-year

0.90

0.90

1.10

1.40

-

-

-

+12m


Money market

Government bonds

Swap rates 2-year

-0.21

-0.25

-0.20

-0.05

-15

-21

-28

5-year

0.45

0.55

0.55

0.60

+0

-10

-25

10-year

1.24

1.30

1.50

1.75

-2

+11

+22

2.5 % 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 0

bp 1

1 1 0 0 0 3

6

9 12 15 18 21 24 27

Change,bp (rhs)

13/09/2017

Source: Danske Bank

Source: Danske Bank

3M Stibor rate

10Y SEK swap rates



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13 October 2017

0

13/10/2017


Yield Outlook

Norway forecasts 

At the 21 September monetary policy meeting, Norges Bank made a small upward adjustment to the interest rate projection, now indicating the first hike towards mid2019. As we expect somewhat higher growth and higher wage growth, we expect the first rate hike at the end of 2018. Recent data has been marginally on the weak side but suggests no new signals at the upcoming board meeting on 26 October.



The slowdown in the Norwegian housing market continues after strong growth in 2015 and 2016, and has been more pronounced than expected by Norges Bank. Mortgage market regulations, introduced at the start of the year, seem to be cooling the housing market – particularly in the Oslo area. Despite the recent oil price recovery, the NOK is still rather weak from a historical perspective and remains supportive of growth in traditional industries.



We do not expect the recent slowdown in the housing market to have any significant effect on monetary policy going forward. Capacity utilisation is about to tighten. We expect 5Y and 10Y yields to be stable versus peers in 2017, as the Norwegian economy is improving slowly. However, on a 12M horizon, we could see a modest widening towards peers.

NOK forecasts summary

NOK swap curve – one-month change

13/10/2017 NOK


Deposit

0.50

0.50

0.50

3M

0.82

0.80

0.80

+12m


Money market 0.50

-

-

-

0.90

-4

-7

-14


0.65

0.65

0.70

0.90

-

-

-

5-year

1.04

1.05

1.10

1.30

-

-

-

10-year

1.62

1.65

1.75

2.10

-

-

-

Swap rates 2-year

1.09

1.10

1.15

1.35

-5

-8

-3

5-year

1.50

1.45

1.50

1.70

-11

-12

-4

10-year

1.94

1.95

2.05

2.40

-4

+2

+28

2.3 % 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0

bp 10

8 6 4 2 0

3

6

9 12 15 18 21 24 27

Change,bp (rhs)

Source: Danske Bank

Source: Danske Bank

3M Nibor rate

10Y NOK swap rates

Source: Danske Bank

Source: Danske Bank

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13 October 2017

13/09/2017

13/10/2017


Yield Outlook

Forecasts table

NOK

SEK

DKK

GBP

EUR *

USD

Forecast table Horizon

Policy rate

3m xIbor

2-yr swap

2-yr gov

5-yr gov

10-yr gov

Spot

1.25

1.36

1.77

5-yr swap 10-yr swap 2.03

2.29

1.51

1.95

2.34

+3m

1.50

1.60

1.85

2.05

2.35

1.60

1.95

2.40

+6m

1.50

1.73

1.95

2.20

2.45

1.70

2.10

2.50

+12m

1.75

1.96

2.25

2.40

2.70

2.00

2.30

2.70

Spot

-0.40

-0.33

-0.18

0.22

0.87

-0.72

-0.30

0.42

+3m

-0.40

-0.33

-0.10

0.25

0.95

-0.65

-0.25

0.50

+6m

-0.40

-0.33

-0.05

0.30

1.05

-0.60

-0.20

0.60

+12m

-0.40

-0.33

0.00

0.40

1.20

-0.50

-0.10

0.75

Spot

0.25

0.37

0.83

1.11

1.40

0.47

0.82

1.39

+3m

0.50

0.52

0.90

1.15

1.45

0.55

0.85

1.40

+6m +12m

0.50 0.50

0.53 0.53

0.95 1.10

1.25 1.50

1.55 1.80

0.60 0.75

0.95 1.20

1.50 1.75

Spot

-0.65

-0.30

-0.04

0.38

1.07

-0.62

-0.35

0.54

+3m

-0.65

-0.30

0.05

0.40

1.15

-0.55

-0.30

0.65

+6m

-0.65

-0.30

0.10

0.45

1.25

-0.50

-0.25

0.75

+12m

-0.65

-0.30

0.20

0.60

1.45

-0.40

-0.15

0.90

Spot

-0.50

-0.52

-0.21

0.44

1.23

-0.69

-0.03

0.90

+3m

-0.50

-0.45

-0.25

0.55

1.30

-0.70

0.05

0.90

+6m

-0.50

-0.45

-0.20

0.55

1.50

-0.65

0.10

1.10

+12m

-0.50

-0.45

-0.05

0.60

1.75

-0.50

0.20

1.40

Spot

0.50

0.82

1.08

1.49

1.94

0.65

1.04

1.62

+3m

0.50

0.80

1.10

1.45

1.95

0.65

1.05

1.65

+6m

0.50

0.80

1.15

1.50

2.05

0.70

1.10

1.75

+12m

0.50

0.90

1.35

1.70

2.40

0.90

1.30

2.10

*German government bonds are used, EUR swap rates are used Source: Danske Bank

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13 October 2017


Yield Outlook

Disclosure This research report has been prepared by Danske Bank A/S (‘Danske Bank’). The author of the research report is Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, Chief Analyst. Analyst certification Each research analyst responsible for the content of this research report certifies that the views expressed in the research report accurately reflect the research analyst’s personal view about the financial instruments and issuers covered by the research report. Each responsible research analyst further certifies that no part of the compensation of the research analyst was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations expressed in the research report. Regulation Danske Bank is authorised and subject to regulation by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and is subject to the rules and regulation of the relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where it conducts business. Danske Bank is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority (UK). Details on the extent of the regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority are available from Danske Bank on request. Danske Bank’s research reports are prepared in accordance with the recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association. Conflicts of interest Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of high-quality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in Danske Bank’s research policies. Employees within Danske Bank’s Research Departments have been instructed that any request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management and the Compliance Department. Danske Bank’s Research Departments are organised independently from and do not report to other business areas within Danske Bank. Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the overall profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions. Financial models and/or methodology used in this research report Calculations and presentations in this research report are based on standard econometric tools and methodology as well as publicly available statistics for each individual security, issuer and/or country. Documentation can be obtained from the authors on request. Risk warning Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this research report, including as sensitivity analysis of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text. Expected updates This report is updated monthly. Date of first publication See the front page of this research report for the date of first publication.

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13 October 2017


Yield Outlook

Disclaimer related to distribution in the United States This research report was created by Danske Bank A/S and is distributed in the United States by Danske Markets Inc., a U.S. registered broker-dealer and subsidiary of Danske Bank A/S, pursuant to SEC Rule 15a-6 and related interpretations issued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The research report is intended for distribution in the United States solely to ‘U.S. institutional investors’ as defined in SEC Rule 15a-6. Danske Markets Inc. accepts responsibility for this research report in connection with distribution in the United States solely to ‘U.S. institutional investors’. Danske Bank is not subject to U.S. rules with regard to the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. In addition, the research analysts of Danske Bank who have prepared this research report are not registered or qualified as research analysts with the NYSE or FINRA but satisfy the applicable requirements of a non-U.S. jurisdiction. Any U.S. investor recipient of this research report who wishes to purchase or sell any Relevant Financial Instrument may do so only by contacting Danske Markets Inc. directly and should be aware that investing in non-U.S. financial instruments may entail certain risks. Financial instruments of non-U.S. issuers may not be registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and may not be subject to the reporting and auditing standards of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Report completed: 13 October 2017 at 14:17 CEST Report disseminated: 13 October 2017 2017 at 16:30 CEST

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13 October 2017
