1980 - Defense Technical Information Center

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Technical Report PTR-1002-S1-6

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CALIBRATION OF PROBABILITIES:-

TIHE STAT! OF THE ART TO 1080

4

Sarah Lichtensteinl, Baruch Flschhoff and Lawrence D. Phil~p4.

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Sponsored by OFFICE OF NAVAL RESEARCH/ under Contract No. NOO14-SC-015 *

*

I.1201

to PERCEPTRONICS, INC

DECISION RESEARCH A Branch of P~rceptonle

6ERCTffR*ONICS,

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Oak Stree

Eugene, Oregon

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'Technical Report PTR-1092-81-8

1

June 1981

CALIBRATION OF PROBABILITIES:

J

THE STATE OF THE ART TO 1980 Sarah Lichtenstein, Baruch Fischhoff and Lawrence D. Phillips

Sponsored by OFFICE OF NAVAL RESEARCH under Contract No. N00014-80-C-0150

&

to PERCEPTRONICS, INC

DECISION RESEARCH A Branch of Perceptronlcs

1201 Oak Street Eugene, Oregon 97401

Approved for Public Irelearn;

IPERCEPTRONICS -

6271 VARIEL AVENUES0 WOODLAND HILLS a CALIFORNIA 91367

0PHONE

(213) 884-7470

1

I

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1

DD Form 1473

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-

Page

Summary

List of TablesList of Figures Acknowledgements Introduction Discrete Propositions Meteorological Research Early Laboratory Research Signal Detection Research Recent Laboratory Research Overconfidence The Effect of Difficulty Effect of Base Rates Individual Differences

vii ix xi

Corrective Efforts Expertise Future Events

23 25 27

1 2 7 9 13 15 15 17 20 21

The Fractile Metod OtherMethods

29 35

Real Tasks with ExpertsSummary of Calibration with Uncertain Quantities Discussion Why Be Well Calibrated? Calibration as Cognitive Psychology Footnotes References Accession Distribution List 1HT1S GRA&I

37 38 39 39 42 45 46 53

DTIC VtB uxiennouncl d

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lzbilltY Codos_

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unclassified SECURITY CLASSIPICATIOM

OF THIS1

PAGE Iofln Dote L111,e-4

AGEREAD REPOT DCUMNTA~ON

ISTRUCTIONS

REPOT DCUMNTATON AGEBEFORE

2. GOVT ACCESSION No. 3. RECIPIEZNT*S CATALOG NUMBER

07)

1. REPORT NUMBER

calibration of Probabilities:

*j

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COMPLETING FORM

) Sarah /ichtensteil

_5xZ

nd

Baruch ischhoff

L

91. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS

Eugene, Oregon

1

tOT0*

un qP

of Naval Research North Quincy Street

Ioffice

*1800

Arlington, Virginia 14.

1

NMAE 59______________

22217

MONITORING AGENCY NAME & ADORESS(if different from Controlling Office)

1.

4

16.

__-Te

97401

CONTROLLING OFFICE NAME AND ADDRESS

111.

Rlepet a

rTechnical

The State of the